A Man Called Otto is metaphorically and actually about the title character eventually getting his power back. Otto Anderson (Tom Hanks) is a recent widower just retired. We’re introduced to him as he suspiciously and precisely purchases a length of rope at a local suburban Pittsburgh home improvement store. Otto is a curmudgeon and he would probably tell neighbors to remove themselves from his condominium lawn, but he’s also Tom Hanks so we’re softened to him. It’s a bummer when that length of rope turns out to be what we fear. Not happy about his current situation, he shuts his electricity off as a prelude to suicide.
Then he keeps getting interrupted. The first prevention comes unwittingly from new neighbors Marisol (Mariana Treviño, stealing the show) and Tommy (Manuel Garcia-Rulfo). They are parents of two adorable girls with a boy on the way. The husband is a kindly dim bulb. Marisol is not. She’s strong and caring and seems to drive every relationship she’s in even if she can’t drive a car. At first Otto is dismissive of her (though not her cooking).
Another attempt involving carbon monoxide poisoning is thwarted by Marisol. Slowly an odd friendship develops. Their interplay generates the real electricity in the screenplay from David Magee. It was, as many know, adapted from Fredrik Backman’s 2012 novel A Man Called Ove. It was turned into an Oscar nominated 2015 Swedish film.
The genuine emotional connection between Otto and Marisol helps mask that other characters are broad caricatures. There’s silly Jimmy (Cameron Britton), who’s always doing his comically awkward walks nearby. Or the hip hop blaring Real Estate Agent (comedian Mike Birbiglia), who is trying to evict Otto’s long-time friends with health problems. Minimal nuance is involved with these folks – “Real Estate Agent” isn’t even granted a name. I forget if Bratty Dog Walker (her pooch is treated like royalty) has one. There is a cat who is easily more memorable as Otto increasingly seems to have nine lives. Also on the plus side, flashback sequences that show his marriage to Sonya (Rachel Keller) help inform Otto’s condition. His younger self is portrayed by the actor’s real son Truman Hanks.
Marc Forster is behind the camera and what a fascinating filmography he’s had. From directing Halle Berry to an Oscar in Monster’s Ball to Daniel Craig’s weakest 007 outing Quantum of Solace to the effective adaptation of World War Z and Finding Neverland and Christopher Robin, he mixes it up. His main style might be that he doesn’t have much of one (whatever fits the occasion). A silhouetted and overly dramatic later suicide attempt tries to bite off more stylistically than its filmmaker can chew. Forster is mostly content to allow Hanks and Treviño steer the vehicle and that’s welcome. A Man Called Otto is far from perfect yet it has a lot of heart.
After being unveiled at the Toronto Film Festival, Sidney debuts on Apple TV tomorrow. The documentary focuses on the life and legacy of cinematic groundbreaker Sidney Poitier, who passed in January at age 94. Denzel Washington, Barbra Streisand, Spike Lee, Halle Berry, and Robert Redford are among the interviewees for the project. Oprah Winfrey is a coproducer.
While most critics are deeming it worthy of recommendation (82% on Rotten Tomatoes), several reviews claim it’s only mildly successful. That could hinder its chances for a Documentary Feature nod at the Oscars, where Mr. Poitier received two nominations. This, of course, includes a Best Actor victory for 1963’s Lilies of the Field where he became the first African-American to win that competition.
Perhaps voters will simply wish to honor the late actor one more time. However, I’m doubtful this ends up in the final five. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
February kicks off with two new entries that should place 1-2 on the charts. Johnny Knoxville and his pranksters return in Jackass Forever and the Roland Emmerich disaster pic Moonfall starring Halle Berry are the debuts and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
It’s been years since we’ve seen a Jackass experience and I do question if younger viewers aren’t as familiar with the franchise. On the other hand, no film in the series (including 2013 spinoff Bad Grandpa) has opened below $20 million and I won’t predict that this will. My low 20s forecast easily puts it in first place.
As for Moonfall, I’ve got it premiering in the same range as 2017’s Geostorm and that’s in the lower double digits range. That should certainly be good for second, but is weak considering the reported $140 million price tag.
The trio of S sequels that have reigned supreme in the last couple of weeks – Spider-Man: No Way Home, Scream, Sing 2 – should all slide 2 spots and populate the rest of the top five.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Jackass Forever
Predicted Gross: $21.8 million
2. Moonfall
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
4. Scream
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
5. Sing 2
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million
Box Office Results (January 28-30)
In a weekend that saw no major releases, Spider-Man: No Way Home easily ruled for the sixth out of its seven weekends. The MCU sensation took in another $11 million, reaching a tad higher than my $10.3 million projection. It stands just $25 million away from overtaking Avatar as the third biggest domestic earner of all time.
Scream was in the runner-up position again and it held better than I anticipated. The horror sequel made $7.2 million in its third frame compared to my $5.5 million estimate and it’s grossed $62 million.
Sing 2 was third with $4.6 million, edging my $4.2 million take and it’s up to $134 million.
Redeeming Love was fourth in its sophomore outing with $1.7 million (I said $1.8 million) for $6 million overall.
The King’s Man rounded out the top five at $1.6 million (I went with $1.3 million). Tally is $33 million.
Roland Emmerich, maker of Independence Day, The Day After Tomorrow, and 2012, has never met a disaster scenario he didn’t like. So let’s have the moon hurtle toward Earth and potentially destroy humanity, shall we? That’s the concept of Moonfall, out February 4th. The sci-fi extravaganza comes with a whopping reported budget of $140 million and its cast includes Halle Berry, Patrick Wilson, John Bradley, Michael Pena, Charlie Plummer, Kelly Yu, and Donald Sutherland.
This one could have a tough time making that budget back and it better hope for robust international grosses. Emmerich is not the drawing power he was a quarter century ago. His last feature, 2019’s Midway, started with just over $17 million (though it is worth noting that was slightly above expectations).
It also might not help that moviegoers looking for mindless entertainment have Jackass Forever debuting directly against it. The best scenario for Moonfall could be $20 million, but that could be a giant leap. I’m thinking a premiere similar to Geostorm (which started north of $13 million) might be where this lands.
Moonfall opening weekend prediction: $12.8 million
When I wrote my Oscar Predictions post for The Eyes of Tammy Faye back in September and talked about Jessica Chastain’s viability in Best Actress, I penned the following passage:
Bottom line: a couple of weeks back, I boldly declared that you could write Kristen Stewart’s Best Actress inclusion in pen. Here we go again for the second pronouncement… I think you can do the same with Chastain.
Two months later, I still feel the same about Kristen Stewart in Spencer. She remains the frontrunner for a nomination and a potential victory. And a solid argument can still be made that Chastain’s performance as Tammy Faye Bakker sits in the runner-up position for inclusion for the five actresses who will be up for consideration. That said, I’m not as declarative as I once was. Given a redo, I might say a sharpened pencil over a pen.
Why? The Best Actress race is stacked in 2021 and more realistic competitors continue to pop up. Just this week, there were three pictures screened that increased or helped solidify the chances for their leading ladies: Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), and Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza). That’s in addition to Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), and Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth). They’ve been in the mix since festival season early this autumn.
That’s eight performances thus far. We can add others to the already released fold: Jodie Comer (The Last Duel), Jennifer Hudson (Respect), Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World), and Tessa Thompson (Passing). 12. I can think of four more from the unscreened column: Sandra Bullock (The Unforgivable), Jennifer Lawrence (Don’t Look Up), Rooney Mara (Nightmare Alley) and Rachel Zegler (West Side Story). 16. I’m not really feeling a Bullock nod, but any of the others could bubble up.
Add to that the off chance that a surprise nominee could materialize of those I’ve basically written off: Halle Berry (Bruised), Marion Cotillard (Annette), Emilia Jones (CODA), or Charlotte Rampling (Benedetta).
20 possibilities (though some admittedly are far fetched). Still – there’s several realistic hopefuls and that’s reason enough to doubt anyone but Stewart making the eventual quintet.
Chastain faces other challenges for her third nomination (the previous two were supporting for 2011’s The Help and lead the following year in Zero Dark Thirty). Despite widespread acclaim for her acting, audiences completely tuned out to Tammy. It earned a tiny $2.4 million at the box office. Reviews for the pic itself were just so-so (66% on Rotten Tomatoes). I’ve heard comparisons made to Renee Zellweger’s victory in 2019 for Judy as far as poor box office and critical reaction. It’s not a totally unfair comp but Zellweger’s winning work garnered 82% on RT and made $24 million domestically.
When Tammy screened up north, the idea of Chastain and her costar Andrew Garfield (in Supporting Actor) both being up seemed feasible. I don’t feel Garfield has much of a shot now (though he definitely does in lead for Tick, Tick… Boom!).
Bottom line: I still have Chastain in my five, but with considerably less assuredness than before.
Twenty years ago, Halle Berry made history as the first (and still only) African-American performer to win Best Actress at the Oscars for Monster’s Ball. It remains her only nomination from the Academy. On November 24 via Netflix, Berry stars in and makes her directorial debut with the sports drama Bruised. She plays a former MMA fighter who decides to step back in the ring. Costars include Shamier Anderson, Adan Canto, Sheila Atim, and Stephen McKinley Henderson.
Bruised held a screening this weekend at AFI Fest after a rough cut was shown last year at Toronto. Early reviews are of the so-so variety and any thoughts of it garnering nods behind Berry are a moot point. The question is: could Berry enter the Oscar ring again?
It would appear the answer is no. The word-of-mouth is simply not strong enough for her to have a puncher’s chance in an Actress race where several contenders will be duking it out. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
The Oscar race for Best Actress takes center stage in my latest rundown of where the major competitions stand in early November. If you missed my posts covering lead actor and the supporting categories, they can accessed right here:
As I have with the others, let’s start with my track record during the same time period from 2019 and 2020. Two years ago, I somehow had all five nominated actresses forecasted correctly with two months to go: winner Renee Zellweger as Judy in addition to Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), and Charlize Theron (Bombshell). For 2020, it was three: gold recipient Frances McDormand for Nomadland and Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) and Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman). Both Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) and Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) were listed in Other Possibilities.
In 2021, we already have a strong frontrunner and that’s Kristin Stewart in Spencer. Playing the high profile role of Princess Diana, Ms. Stewart is practically guaranteed to nab her first nod after plenty of critically appreciated post Twilight turns. She’s a serious threat to win and Stewart has been atop my chart ever since the picture screened back in September at the Venice Film Festival.
Her biggest competition could come from an as yet unseen performance – Lady Gaga in House of Gucci. Judging from the trailers alone, her part seems like the kind of bait that would cause Academy voters to bite. If so, the pop superstar would receive her second nomination three years after her breakout cinematic role with A Star Is Born.
After that, there’s a lengthy list of hopefuls for the three remaining slots. When The Eyes of Tammy Faye premiered on the festival circuit, it was a given that Jessica Chastain would make the cut. I still think she will, but the pic’s barely existent box office numbers are reason for some uncertainty.
Screenings were also kind to Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter and that momentum could result in her third inclusion in the last four years after a 2018 Actress victory for The Favourite and a supporting nod for last year’s The Father.
Colman isn’t the only actress from a Netflix offering eyeing the prize. There’s Tessa Thompson in Passing, Jennifer Lawrence in Don’t Look Up, Sandra Bullock for The Unforgivable, and Halle Berry with Bruised. All could factor in. Other than Thompson (her costar Ruth Negga stands a greater chance in supporting), the three others have yet to be unveiled. The streamer may have to pick and choose whose campaigns they go all in with.
There’s other possibilities in the unseen column where the buzz will shortly materialize: Cate Blanchett for Nightmare Alley, Alana Haim in Licorice Pizza, Nicole Kidman as Lucille Ball with Being the Ricardos, and Rachel Zegler (West Side Story). At press time, I only have Kidman in the top ten but that could change as soon as reviews start posting.
As for pictures that have been available for awhile, I feel Marlee Matlin and Troy Kotsur’s supporting parts in CODA are more likely to be recognized than lead Emilia Jones. Renate Reinsve will have her share of supporters for The Worst Person in the World, but its best chance lies with an International Feature Film nomination. Bad financial returns could negatively impact Jodie Comer for The Last Duel, though I will note that a number of prognosticators have her in.
For the fifth spot, I currently see three performances with roughly equal chances. Frances McDormand took the prize last year and that might make the Academy think twice about putting her up again for The Tragedy of Macbeth. Penelope Cruz is just on the outside looking in for Parallel Mothers. That leaves me with Jennifer Hudson as Aretha Franklin in Respect. Even though the film received mixed reviews and so-so box office, praise for the Supporting Actress winner in 2006’s Dreamgirls was universal. Voters may have to think all the way back to summer to include her but I do believe it’s feasible.
And with that, here’s my standings:
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 3)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 7)
7. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6)
8. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 8)
9. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10)
10. Tessa Thompson, Passing (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Now that the acting derbies are wrapped, I’ll have Best Director up next!
My weekly Oscar predictions has at last expanded to all categories covering feature films! That means we have counts on how each picture will fare and I have Dune and Nightmare Alley leading the way to 10 nods apiece.
There are changes to ponder as Don’t Look Up takes the biggest fall. I have been toying with removing the Netflix disaster drama from Best Picture contention for a couple of weeks. A clip from the pic circulated yesterday and drew some criticism, but I wouldn’t judge it from that brief glimpse. This is more of a hunch that Up might not going for a BP vibe. So it’s out with Up and in with Spencer. Additionally, C’Mon C’Mon rises in Original Screenplay over Adam McKay’s latest.
In other developments:
The Tragedy of Macbeth premiered at the New York Film Festival Friday and solidified its BP viability. Same goes for Denzel Washington. There’s still a question mark as to whether Frances McDormand will be placed in lead or supporting (sounds like a case could be made for both). For now, I’m putting her back in Best Actress and saying she gets in. Same goes for Jennifer Hudson in Respect. Their inclusion knocks out Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) and Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter).
I’m back to projecting Bradley Cooper as a double nominee. His placement in Actor for Nightmare Alley removes Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon).
The Supporting Actress derby seems to be getting a new #1 each week. This time it’s Caitriona Balfe for Belfast.
Lots more to peruse in the inaugural expanded listings below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (-1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. King Richard (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Spencer (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Flee (PR: 16) (+4)
13. CODA (PR: 13) (E)
14. Mass (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Humans (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Hand of God
The French Dispatch
Tick, Tick… Boom!
A Hero
The Lost Daughter
C’Mon C’Mon
Being the Ricardos
Cyrano
Passing
Parallel Mothers
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 12)
10. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Asghar Farhadi, A Hero
Stephen Karam, The Humans
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 8)
9. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World
Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
Emilia Jones, CODA
Halle Berry, Bruised
Tessa Thompson, Passing
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 11( (+3)
9. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Ben Foster, The Survivor
Jude Hill, Belfast
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
Amir Jadidi, A Hero
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 14) (+6)
9. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (E)
10. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 12) (+2)
Dropped Out:
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth – moved to lead
Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley
Judi Dench, Belfast
Martha Plimpton, Mass
Dakota Johnson, The Lost Daughter
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 14) (+4)
Dropped Out:
Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley
David Alvarez, West Side Story
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Reed Birney, Mass
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mass (PR: 4) (+1))
4. King Richard (PR: 5) (+1)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Hero (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Hand of God (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 12) (+2)
Dropped Out:
The French Dispatch
Parallel Mothers
Being the Ricardos
Last Night in Soho
Annette
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Humans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dune (PR: 7) (E)
8. CODA (PR: 8) (E)
9. West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Passing (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
Tick, Tick… Boom!
The Last Duel
The Green Knight
In the Heights
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee
2. Luca
3. Encanto
4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines
5. Belle
Other Possibilities:
6. Vivo
7. Raya and the Last Dragon
8. Charlotte
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong
10. Where Is Anne Frank
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero
2. Flee
3. The Hand of God
4. Petite Maman
5. The Worst Person in the World
Other Possibilities:
6. Parallel Mothers
7. Drive My Car
8. Compartment No. 6
9. 7 Prisoners
10. I’m Your Man
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue
2. Flee
3. Attica
4. President
5. The Lost Leonardo
Other Possibilities:
6. Summer of Soul
7. Julia
8. The Sparks Brothers
9. The First Wave
10. Becoming Cousteau
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth
3. Nightmare Alley
4. Belfast
5. The Power of the Dog
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story
7. Spencer
8. Licorice Pizza
9. The French Dispatch
10. The Hand of God
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spencer
2. House of Gucci
3. Dune
4. Cruella
5. Nightmare Alley
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth
7. West Side Story
8. Licorice Pizza
9. The French Dispatch
10. Cyrano
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune
2. Belfast
3. Nightmare Alley
4. Licorice Pizza
5. West Side Story
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog
7. Don’t Look Up
8. House of Gucci
9. King Richard
10. Spencer
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci
2. Dune
3. Spencer
4. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
5. Nightmare Alley
Other Possibilities:
6. Cruella
7. Cyrano
8. West Side Story
9. Licorice Pizza
10. The French Dispatch
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune
2. Spencer
3. The Power of the Dog
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth
5. The French Dispatch
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley
7. Licorice Pizza
8. Cyrano
9. Don’t Look Up
10. King Richard
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
3. “Down to Joy” from Belfast
4. “Colombia, Mi Encanto” from Encanto
5. “Here I Am” from Respect
Other Possibilities:
6. “So May We Start” from Annette
7. “Every Letter” from Cyrano
8. “Believe” from The Rescue
9. “Don’t Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
10. “At the Automat” from The Automat
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nightmare Alley
2. Dune
3. West Side Story
4. The French Dispatch
5. Spencer
Other Possibilities:
6. House of Gucci
7. Belfast
8. Licorice Pizza
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth
10. Cyrano
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune
2. West Side Story
3. The Matrix Resurrections
4. Nightmare Alley
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast
7. Don’t Look Up
8. No Time to Die
9. A Quiet Place Part II
10. King Richard
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune
2. The Matrix Resurrections
3. Eternals
4. Godzilla vs. Kong
5. Don’t Look Up
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: No Way Home
7. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
8. The Suicide Squad
9. Free Guy
10. Jungle Cruise
And that gives us the first take on how many nominations the various pictures will receive:
10 Nominations
Dune, Nightmare Alley
8 Nominations
Belfast
7 Nominations
The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
House of Gucci, Spencer, The Tragedy of Macbeth
5 Nominations
Licorice Pizza, West Side Story
4 Nominations
King Richard
3 Nominations
Flee, The Humans, Mass
2 Nominations
Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Matrix Resurrections, Respect
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, C’Mon C’Mon, Cruella, Cyrano, Don’t Look Up, Eternals, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Lost Daughter, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, No Time to Die, Petite Maman, President, The Rescue, The Worst Person in the World
Thanks to the Toronto Film Festival, we have a new #1 atop the charts in Best Picture and it’s Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast.
The coming-of-age drama won the festival’s People’s Choice Award and that is no minor development. 12 of the past 13 victors have received a BP nod. Five of them have won. And that’s enough to allow Belfast the designation of soft frontrunner (with lots of time to go and lots yet to be seen). However, the fact of the matter is, you have to go back to 2006’s The Departed to find a BP winner that didn’t screen at one of the higher profile festivals.
The Power of the Dog was a runner-up for the People’s Choice prize and it slides just one spot. Director Jane Campion maintains top billing in her category.
There are further developments to point out:
King Richard is back in my top 10 BP projections edging out The Humans. The Will Smith sports drama also enters Original Screenplay over C’Mon C’Mon.
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza) is in for Best Director over Ridley Scott for House of Gucci.
The praise for Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye is enough to put her at #2 in Actress. It’s not enough to dislodge Kristen Stewart (Spencer) from her ruling perch. I will admit that the subpar box office grosses for Faye this weekend doesn’t help, but I’m relatively confident at this juncture that she’s in.
The revolving door that is slot #5 in Best Actor lands on Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon) over Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley).
Big changes in Supporting Actor as Jamie Dornan (Belfast) and Jared Leto (House of Gucci) are in. Dropping are Dornan’s costar Ciaran Hinds and Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog).
While the Supporting Actress five stays intact, I’ve vaulted Ann Dowd (Mass) back to the top spot.
By this time next Sunday, we will know the buzz for Joel Coen’s The Tragedy of Macbeth as it opens the New York Film Festival this Friday. Stay tuned for my Oscar Predictions post on that next weekend.
You can peruse all the action below and the forecasts will be updated next Sunday!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 4) (+3)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune (PR: 5) (+1)
5. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (E)
10. King Richard (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Humans (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Spencer (PR: 15) (+3)
13. CODA (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Mass (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Hand of God (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Flee (PR: 17) (+1)
17. The French Dispatch (PR: 16) (-1)
18. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 19) (+1)
19. A Hero (PR: 18) (-1)
20. The Lost Daughter (PR: 20) (E)
21. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 24) (+3)
22. Being the Ricardos (PR: 22) (E)
23. Cyrano (PR: 23) (E)
24. Passing (PR: 21) (-3)
25. Parallel Mothers (PR: 25) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)
8. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (E)
10. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 14) (E)
15. Stephen Karam, The Humans (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 4) (E)
5. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 6) (E)
7. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (E)
8. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Halle Berry, Bruised (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Tessa Thompson, Passing (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (E)
8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (E)
9. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 11) (E)
12. Ben Foster, The Survivor (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jude Hill, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Amir Jadidi, A Hero (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, Annette
Filippo Scott, The Hand of God
Simon Rex, Red Rocket
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (E)
10. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 12) (E)
13. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Dakota Johnson, The Lost Daughter (PR: 15) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 3) (-5)
9. Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley (PR: 12) (+1)
12. David Alvarez, West Side Story (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: Not Ranked)
With the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals having just wrapped and Toronto going strong, there are fresh updates to my Oscar predictions in every category but Director!
Of course, the big question from the past week might be: Will a movie with the word “pizza” in it finally get a Best Picture nomination? That’s more possible than ever since Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest (which had the working title Soggy Bottom) is now apparently called Licorice Pizza. It makes perfect sense if you research the setting.
It’ll be a while before we know how much of a contender that one actually is. There is some movement based on actual buzz and it starts with Stephen Karam’s The Humans, which has screened at Toronto. I believe it could make the BP cut and I’ve got it in. I’m also returning West Side Story to the top ten. Dropping out are CODA and King Richard, though either could certainly find themselves back in the mix.
In other developments:
Penelope Cruz’s Venice win for Best Actress gets her back in the top five. Falling out is Jennifer Hudson for Respect.
I now have Bradley Cooper as a double nominee. In addition to him maintaining the top spot in Supporting Actor for Pizza (that’s gonna take some getting used to), he’s listed in Actor for Nightmare Alley. He takes the place of Adam Driver in House of Gucci.
With category placement still in flux for certain pics, I’ve chosen to put the ensemble for Belfast all in supporting. That means Caitriona Balfe is in for Supporting Actress over her costar Judi Dench. I’m also elevating Jayne Houdyshell (The Humans) and dropping Marlee Matlin (CODA). Furthermore, I have Frances McDormand moved to supporting from lead and she sits just on the outside at #6. Kirsten Dunst takes over the #1 position over Ann Dowd in Mass.
Jamie Dornan (Belfast) also enters the competition in supporting instead of lead, but he’s not in my five. There is one change: Jason Isaacs (Mass) over Jared Leto (House of Gucci).
C’Mon C’Mon gets the 5th slot in Original Screenplay over Spencer. And Belfast is now listed first instead of Pizza.
In Adapted Screenplay, The Humans and The Lost Daughter make the cut over The Tragedy of Macbeth and CODA. The latter did not have a good week as you can see (dropping out of Picture, Supporting Actress, and here).
We are mere hours away from knowing whether Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) deserves her #3 placement in Actress. Those developments and more will be available when I update next Sunday. Until then, you can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 2)
4. Belfast (PR: 4)
5. Dune (PR: 6)
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) – formerly Soggy Bottom
8. West Side Story (PR: 11)
9. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8)
10. The Humans (PR: 14)
Other Possibilities:
11. CODA (PR: 10)
12. King Richard (PR: 9)
13. The Hand of God (PR: 17)
14. Mass (PR: 12)
15. Spencer (PR: 13)
16. The French Dispatch (PR: 19)
17. Flee (PR: 16)
18. A Hero (PR: 15)
19. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 20)
20. The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Passing (PR: 24)
22. Being the Ricardos (PR: 22)
23. Cyrano (PR: 18)
24. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 25)
25. Parallel Mothers (PR: 23)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 2)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3)
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 5)
5. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 6)
7. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7)
8. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 10)
9. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8)
10. Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God (PR: 15)
11. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 9)
12. Stephen Karam, The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 13)
14. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 11)
15. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Sian Heder, CODA
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristin Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1)
2. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 2)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3)
4. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6)
5. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5)
7. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 11)
8. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 15)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 13)
11. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 8)
12. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (PR: 12)
13. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World (PR: 14)
14. Tessa Thompson, Passing (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Halle Berry, Bruised (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (moved to Supporting Actress)
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (moved to Supporting Actress)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
4. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5)
5. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7)
7. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6)
9. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 9)
10. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 10)
11. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 12)
12. Amir Jadidi, A Hero (PR: 13)
13. Filippo Scott, The Hand of God (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Simon Rex, Red Rocket (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Jamie Dornan, Belfast (moved to Supporting)
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
2. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 1)
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)
4. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 6)
5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 4)
8. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 7)
9. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8)
10. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: 12)
11. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 3)
12. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10)
13. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 9)
14. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 11)
15. Dakota Johnson, The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos
Olga Merediz, In the Heights
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1)
2. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 4)
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 3)
4. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
5. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5)
7. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)
8. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7)
9. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 8)
10. Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9)
11. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 13)
12. Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10)
13. David Alvarez, West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)
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