The most eagerly anticipated review embargo of 2017 ended early this afternoon as critical reaction is pouring in for Star Wars: The Last Jedi. Opening Friday, it’s pretty much a foregone conclusion that episode VIII of the vaunted franchise will generate the year’s biggest debut (and very possibly the second highest of all time after predecessor The Force Awakens).
So my attention now turns to its Oscar viability. At this moment, The Last Jedi stands at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s quite an impressive number (Force Awakens ended up at 93%) and it’s likely the Jedi number will fluctuate over the next couple of days. Still, many reviews have indicated it’s the strongest entry in the series since 1980’s The Empire Strikes Back – generally and rightfully considered the best of the lot. Other reviews, while positive, haven’t gone that far.
It’s worth noting that only the 1977 original managed a Best Picture nomination. Simply put, I don’t see that changing here nor do I see any of the actors getting recognition.
The Force Awakens ended up garnering five nods two years ago: Original Score, Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects. It won zero. My estimate is that Jedi will not reach that number. Composer John Williams will face competition with himself and I see his work for Steven Spielberg’s The Post being nominated instead. Editing could be a stretch as some reviewers are already nitpicking its pacing. It could certainly nab nominations in both Sound categories and Visual Effects is a given. Like Force Awakens, I believe it won’t emerge victorious in any of the races it gets in for.
Bottom line: Star Wars: The Last Jedi, even with its general consensus that it improves over Awakens, is unlikely to be an Academy player in any significant manner other than technical stuff.
The cinematic event of 2017 invades theaters next Friday when StarWars: TheLastJedi debuts. The eighth episode of the beloved franchise arrives 40 years after the original changed the landscape of the moviegoing world. In more recent times, it is of course the sequel to 2015’s TheForceAwakens, which broke every box office record in its path. It had the biggest opening of all time and is the highest grossing picture of all time (not adjusted for inflation).
What J.J. Abrams started two December’s ago is continued here with Rian Johnson handling directorial duties (Abrams will be back for episode IX). Returnees from Awakens include Daisy Ridley, John Boyega, Oscar Isaac, Adam Driver, Andy Serkis, Anthony Daniels, Lupita Nyong’o, and Domhnall Gleeson. Of course, there’s also Mark Hamill back as Luke Skywalker and with considerably more screen time and Carrie Fisher as Princess Leia in her final performance. Familiar faces entering the StarWars universe for the first time include Benicio del Toro, Laura Dern, and Kelly Marie Tran.
TheForceAwakens obliterated the all-time opening weekend to the tune of $247 million with a $936 million eventual domestic haul. Anticipation for the follow-up is feverish. That said, Jedi is not expected to top its predecessor out of the gate. A more serious question is whether or not it will manage the second biggest stateside premiere in history.
First things first : it should not have trouble nabbing the 2017 record by sailing past another Disney title, BeautyandtheBeast at $174 million. And it will absolutely be the runner-up franchise opening, which currently is last year’s spin-off RogueOne: AStarWarsStory at $155 million.
In order to achieve the #2 debut, it will need to top the $208 million earned by JurassicWorld in 2015. I am predicting it will manage to get there with about $10 million to spare as it sets up for a long run over the holidays.
StarWars: TheLastJedi opening weekend prediction: $219.7 million
Blogger’s Note (08/17): I am revising my Logan Lucky prediction down to $10.5 million on the eve of its debut.
The eclectic Steven Soderbergh is back in theaters with heist comedy Logan Lucky, debuting next weekend. It marks the director’s first theatrical release in four and a half years since Side Effects and first picture altogether since 2013’s Behind the Candelabra which premiered on HBO.
Lucky is headlined by many familiar faces, including Channing Tatum, Adam Driver, Daniel Craig (getting raves for the role), Seth MacFarlane, Riley Keough, Katie Holmes, Hilary Swank, Katherine Waterston, Dwight Yoakam, and Sebastian Stan. Reviews have been quite pleasing and it stands at 100% currently on Rotten Tomatoes, being frequently compared to the Ocean‘s trilogy that Soderbergh made.
Even with the solid reviews and a NASCAR tie-in (the film’s heist takes place at a race), there could be some issues with this completely breaking out. There is direct competition in the form of The Hitman’s Bodyguard with Ryan Reynolds and Samuel L. Jackson and it’s more likely to debut a bit higher. The mid August release date is also not one that lends itself well to openings above $20 million.
I’ll predict Lucky‘s number falls in the low to possibly mid teens, as it will hope to leg out well in future weekends (and may well do so).
Logan Lucky opening weekend prediction: $10.5 million
For my The Hitman’s Bodyguard prediction, click here:
Well, hello everyone! It’s Thursday and my first Oscar predictions of the new year have rolled in…
In the past two weeks we’ve seen the Golden Globes occur, which showered its love upon La La Land. We’ve had BAFTA and Producers Guild nominations (that one produced a surprise nod for Deadpool and puts the comic book pic in the top 20 for the firs time). And the Director Guild announced their five nominees this morning, which exactly matches my picks here. We’ve seen pictures (in my estimation) increase their chances (Arrival, Hidden Figures) and others fall a bit (Silence).
On Thursday the 19th, I will make my final round of Thursday predictions and on Sunday the 22nd – my “final” final predictions prior to the announcement on January 24th.
Here’s how I see it all right now…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 7)
5. Lion (PR: 5)
6. Fences (PR: 4)
7. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
9. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
10. Silence (PR: 6)
11. Loving (PR: 11)
12. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 12)
13. Sully (PR: 13)
14. Jackie (PR: 14)
15. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
16. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 16)
18. Patriots Day (PR: 17)
19. Captain Fantastic (PR: 19)
20. Zootopia (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
5. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
7. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)
8. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
9. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 8)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
5. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)
7. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, Paterson
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)
5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
7. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 9)
8. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 7)
9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)
3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 3)
5. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
7. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 7)
9. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
3. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)
8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 10)
9. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
10. Lupita Nyong’o, Queen of Katwe (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Arrival (PR: 4)
3. Lion (PR: 2)
4. Fences(PR: 3)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
7. Loving (PR: 8)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
9. Silence (PR: 5)
10. Elle (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sully
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)
4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)
5. Toni Erdmann (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
6. The Lobster (PR: 6)
7. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
8. Jackie (PR: 7)
9. Zootopia (PR: 9)
10. Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I, Daniel Blake
Best Animated Feautre
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia (PR: 1)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)
3. Moana (PR: 3)
4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)
5. The Little Prince (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 5)
7. Finding Dory (PR: 6)
8. Your Name (PR: 9)
9. Sausage Party (PR: 10)
10. Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
April and the Extraordinary World
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 1)
2. Gleason (PR: 4)
3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 2)
4. 13th (PR: 3)
5. Cameraperson (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. The Ivory Game (PR: 9)
7. Life, Animated (PR: 5)
8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)
9. Weiner (PR: 10)
10. Fire at Sea (PR: 7)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)
2. The Salesman (PR: 2)
3. Land of Mine (PR: 3)
4. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 6)
5. A Man Called Ove (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. The King’s Choice (PR: 5)
7. Tanna (PR: 8)
8. It’s the Only the End of the World (PR: 9)
9. Paradise (PR: 7)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Arrival (PR: 4)
3. Moonlight (PR: 2)
4. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
5. Silence (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities
6. Lion (PR: 6)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
8. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
9. Jackie (PR: 8)
10. Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)
4. Allied (PR: 3)
5. Love & Friendship (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)
7. Silence (PR: 6)
8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)
9. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Live by Night (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Alice Through the Looking Glass
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
4. Arrival (PR: 3)
5. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Silence (PR: 5)
8. Lion (PR: 7)
9. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)
10. Sully (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Jackie
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees
1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 1)
2. Deadpool (PR: 3)
3. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
4. A Man Called Ove (PR: 5)
5. Suicide Squad (PR: 4)
6. The Dressmaker (PR: 6)
7. Hail, Caesar! (PR: 7)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)
5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Jackie (PR: 5)
8. The BFG (PR: 9)
9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
10. The Jungle Book (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Hidden Figures
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 1)
2. “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana (PR: 2)
3. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 3)
4. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
5. “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 6)
7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 4)
8. “The Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)
9. “Faith” from Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
5. Silence (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 8)
8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 5)
9. Allied (PR: 6)
10. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 5)
5. Sully (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival (PR: 6)
7. The Jungle Book (PR: 9)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 7)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Allied (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Captain America: Civil War
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 5)
Other Possibilties
6. Patriots Day (PR: 8)
7. Sully (PR: 6)
8. The Jungle Book (PR: 9)
9. Deadpool (PR: 10)
10. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Allied
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. The BFG (PR: 5)
7. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 10)
8. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 8)
9. Captain America: Civil War (PR: 7)
10. Passengers (PR: 9)
That equates to the following number of nominations for each film:
14 Nominations
La La Land
9 Nominations
Arrival
8 Nominations
Moonlight
7 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea
6 Nominations
Lion, Hacksaw Ridge
4 Nominations
Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Hell or High Water, Jackie
2 Nominations
Captain Fantastic, Nocturnal Animals, Toni Erdmann, Moana, Silence, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Deepwater Horizon
1 Nomination
Elle, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, The Little Prince, I Am Not Your Negro, Gleason, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, Cameraperson, The Salesman, Land of Mine, My Life as a Zucchini, A Man Called Ove, Allied, Love & Friendship, Deadpool, Star Trek Beyond, Trolls, Sully, The Jungle Book, Doctor Strange.
Blogger’s Update: Silence prediction being revised down based on reported theater count on just 750 screens.
One of Martin Scorsese’s passion projects finally rolls out in wide release next weekend when Silence debuts. The historical epic was shot entirely in Taiwan and tells the story of two Jesuit priests in Japan during the 17th century. Andrew Garfield (fresh off his well received turn in Hacksaw Ridge), Adam Driver, Liam Neeson, Ciaran Hinds, and Issey Ogata (garnering some Oscar chatter) star.
Speaking of Oscar chatter, Silence has been the subject of it. However, its inclusion in the Best Picture race is not assured. If that chatter had been louder, it may have helped box office performance. Additionally, the pic is debuting on a packed weekend in which there’s plenty of other adult fare competing for attention, including Patriots Day and Live by Night.
The best hope for Silence may be a host of Academy Awards nods that will be announced nearly two weeks after its release. That could propel it to steady grosses over awards season. As for its opening, I believe low to mid single digits is the likely scenario.
We have reached my final Oscar predictions post of 2016! There will be likely be four more posts: 3 Thursday editions (January 5, 12, 19) and a final one on Monday, January 23rd before the nominations are revealed on Tuesday, January 24th.
Per usual, I’m listing 20 Best Picture possibilities and ten in all the other categories.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
3. Moonlight (PR: 2)
4. Fences (PR: 6)
5. Lion (PR: 4)
6. Silence (PR: 5)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
11. Loving (PR: 11)
12. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)
13. Sully (PR: 12)
14. Jackie (PR: 13)
15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)
16. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)
17. Patriots Day (PR: 16)
18. The Jungle Book (PR: 18)
19. Captain Fantastic (PR: 19)
20. Zootopia (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gold
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)
5. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneueve, Arrival (PR: 5)
7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
8. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 8)
9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
10. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 6)
7. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 10)
10. Adam Driver, Paterson (PR: 9)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
5. Meryl Streep. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)
7. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
9. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)
3. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 4)
4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
7. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)
9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)
10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 7)
7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)
8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 10)
10. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 9)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 3)
3. Fences (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Silence (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)
8. Loving (PR: 9)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
10. Sully (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)
4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)
5. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The Lobster (PR: 6)
7. Jackie (PR: 7)
8. Toni Erdmann (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Zootopia (PR: 8)
10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Eye in the Sky
Florence Foster Jenkins
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia (PR: 1)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)
3. Moana (PR: 3)
4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)
5. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 6)
Other Possibilties
6. Finding Dory (PR: 5)
7. The Little Prince (PR: 7)
8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 8)
9. Your Name (PR: 10)
10. Sausage Party (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 1)
2. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 3)
3. 13th (PR: 2)
4. Gleason (PR: 5)
5. Life, Animated (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Cameraperson (PR: 4)
7. Fire at Sea (PR: 7)
8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)
9. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)
10. Weiner (PR: 9)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)
2. The Salesman (PR: 2)
3. Land of Mine (PR: 3)
4. A Man Called Ove (PR: 5)
5. The King’s Choice (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 4)
7. Paradise (PR: 8)
8. Tanna (PR: 7)
9. It’s Only the End of the World (PR: 9)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Lion (PR: 5)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)
8. Jackie (PR: 8)
9. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Hell or High Water
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Allied (PR: 4)
4. Love & Friendship (PR: 3)
5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Silence (PR: 8)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)
8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
9. Live by Night (PR: 6)
10. Alice Through the Looking Glass (PR: Not Ranked)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
5. Silence (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 10)
7. Lion (PR: 5)
8. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)
9. Sully (PR: 7)
10. Jackie (PR: 9)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees
1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 1)
2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)
3. Deadpool (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
4. Suicide Squad (PR: 3)
5. A Man Called Ove (PR: 7)
6. The Dressmaker (PR: 5)
7. Hail, Caesar! (PR: 6)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 4)
3. Moonlight (PR: 2)
4. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 3)
5. Jackie (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 5)
7. Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
9. The BFG (PR: 9)
10. The Jungle Book (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Moana
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 1)
2. “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana (PR: 2)
3. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 4)
4. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 8)
5. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 3)
7. “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 7)
8. “The Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 6)
9. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: 10)
10. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Silence (PR: 4)
5. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)
8. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)
9. Live by Night (PR: 6)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 3)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)
4. Sully (PR: 4)
5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival (PR: 7)
7. Patriots Day (PR: 8)
8. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Jungle Book (PR: 5)
10. Captain America: Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Deadpool
Doctor Strange
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Sully (PR: 7)
7. Allied (PR: 8)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 9)
9. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)
10. Deadpool (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)
5. The BFG (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)
7. Captain America: Civil War (PR: 8)
8. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 7)
9. Passengers (PR: 10)
10. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 9)
That leaves us with the following nomination breakdown:
14 Nominations
La La Land
8 Nominations
Moonlight, Arrival
6 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea, Lion, Silence
5 Nominations
Hacksaw Ridge
4 Nominations
Fences, Jackie, Florence Foster Jenkins
3 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2 Nominations
20th Century Women, Hell or High Water, Nocturnal Animals, Moana, Deepwater Horizon
1 Nomination
Loving, Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, My Life as a Zucchini, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, Gleason, Life, Animated, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, A Man Called Ove, The King’s Choice, Allied, Love & Friendship, Star Trek Beyond, Deadpool, Sing Street, Rules Don’t Apply, Sully, The Jungle Book, Doctor Strange, The BFG.
That’ll do it for now. See ya with the predictions next year!
We are moving closer and closer to Oscar nominations being out and there’s plenty of precursor action happening, etc…
Some of the categories, including Best Foreign Language Film (with its list whittled down to nine), Makeup and Hairstyling (seven possibles) and Visual Effects (ten possibilities). All in all, this last predictions posts before Christmas gives my take on where all the races stand as things (sort of) become a bit clearer.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Lion (PR: 6)
5. Silence (PR: 4)
6. Fences (PR: 5)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
11. Loving (PR: 11)
12. Sully (PR: 13)
13. Jackie (PR: 12)
14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)
15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)
16. Patriots Day (PR: 16)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)
18. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)
19. Captain Fantastic (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Gold (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)
7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)
8. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 7)
9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
10. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeff Nichols, Loving
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)
7. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 6)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Adam Driver, Paterson (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Matthew McConaughey, Gold
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 4)
4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
7. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 5)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
10. Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rebecca Hall, Christine
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)
3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 4)
5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
7. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)
9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 7)
10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
7. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
8. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)
9. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 10)
10. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 9)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 2)
3. Lion (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Silence (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)
7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
8. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
9. Loving (PR: 8)
10. Sully (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)
4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)
5. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The Lobster (PR: 6)
7. Jackie (PR: 7)
8. Zootopia (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)
10. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
I, Daniel Blake
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia (PR: 1)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)
3. Moana (PR: 3)
4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)
5. Finding Dory (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 7)
7. The Little Prince (PR: 6)
8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 8)
9. Sausage Party (PR: 10)
10. Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Trolls
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 2)
2. 13th (PR: 1)
3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 3)
4. Cameraperson (PR: 6)
5. Gleason (PR: 4)
Other Possibilties
6. Life, Animated (PR: 5)
7. Fire at Sea (PR: 9)
8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)
9. Weiner (PR: 7)
10. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)
2. The Salesman (PR: 3)
3. Land of Mine (PR: 4)
4. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: Not Ranked)
5. A Man Called Ove (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities
6. The King’s Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Tanna (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Paradise (PR: Not Ranked)
9. It’s the Only the End of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Elle
Neruda
The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki
Julieta
Ma’Rosa
The Ardennes
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Lion (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
8. Jackie (PR: 5)
9. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Love & Friendship (PR: 4)
4. Allied (PR: 3)
5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Live by Night (PR: 6)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)
8. Silence (PR: 8)
9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
10. Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fences
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 4)
4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)
5. Lion (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Silence (PR: 3)
7. Sully (PR: 6)
8. Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jackie (PR: 10)
10. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Fences
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees
1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)
3. Suicide Squad (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
4. Deadpool (PR: 5)
5. The Dressmaker (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Hail, Caesar! (PR: Not Ranked)
7. A Man Called Ove (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jackie
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hacksaw Ridge
Love & Friendship
Doctor Strange
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Nocturnal Animals
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 7)
3. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)
4. Lion (PR: 2)
5. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Jackie (PR: 3)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Moana (PR: 4)
9. The BFG (PR: 10)
10. The Jungle Book (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Nocturnal Animals
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 3)
2. “We Know the Way” from Moana (PR: 2)
3. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 4)
4. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 1)
5. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities
6. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 5)
7. “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 6)
8. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 7)
9. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones (PR: 10)
10. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po
“I See Victory” from Hidden Figures
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 4)
4. Silence (PR: 3)
5. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
6. Live by Night (PR: 5)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fences
Allied
Love & Friendship
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
3. La La Land (PR: 2)
4. Sully (PR: 4)
5. The Jungle Book (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 6)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 8)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Doctor Strange (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
Allied
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 4)
5. Arrival (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)
7. Sully (PR: 7)
8. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Patriots Day (PR: 8)
10. Deadpool (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The BFG (PR: 6)
7. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Captain America: Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Deepwater Horizon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sully
Star Trek Beyond
Deadpool
A Monster Calls
That gives you a current nomination breakdown as follows:
14 Nominations
La La Land
9 Nominations
Arrival
8 Nominations
Moonlight
7 Nominations
Lion
6 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea, Hacksaw Ridge
5 Nominations
Silence
4 Nominations
Fences, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3 Nominations
Jackie, Hidden Figures, Florence Foster Jenkins
2 Nominations
Sully, 20th Century Women, Hell or High Water, Moana, 13th, The Jungle Book
1 Nomination
Loving, Nocturnal Animals, Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, Finding Dory, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, Cameraperson, Gleason, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, My Life as a Zucchini, A Man Called Ove, Love & Friendship, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Allied, Star Trek Beyond, Suicide Squad, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange.
And there you have it! I’ll be back at it again next Thursday with my final predictions of the year!
Well, folks, it’s been two weeks since I made my last Oscar predictions and a lot has happened in that time period. Both the Golden Globe and SAG nominations have been released, in addition to more critics association bestowing of honors.
The events of the last couple of weeks have led me to this conclusion: La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea are the current hot trio for Best Picture. There was the fascinating omission of La La for a SAG Best Ensemble Award. While I still believe it’s the front runner for the Academy, if it won it would be the first picture to do so without being nominated for the SAG race since 1995’s Braveheart.
Both SAG and Golden Globe weren’t kind to Martin Scorsese’s Silence, yet I still think it manages to get in the Picture race and nominate its director. Both organizations had their share of shocker nods – for SAG it was Emily Blunt for The Girl on the Train in Actress as opposed to Annette Bening in 20th Century Women. For the Globes, it was Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s getting a nom for Nocturnal Animals in Supporting Actor instead of his more expected costar Michael Shannon.
Here’s where I have all the races standing currently. Let’s get to it:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Silence (PR: 2)
5. Fences (PR: 5)
6. Lion (PR: 6)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 12)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
11. Loving (PR: 9)
12. Jackie (PR: 11)
13. Sully (PR: 13)
14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 16)
15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)
16. Patriots Day (PR: 14)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
18. Live by Night (PR: 17)
19. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)
20. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
The Founder
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
7. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities
6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 6)
7. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 5)
10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)
4. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
7. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 3)
3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 5)
8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
10. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, Silence
Liam Neeson, Silence
Stephen Henderson, Fences
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)
8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 3)
3. Hell or High Water (PR: 4)
4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 10)
5. 20thCenturyWomen (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. The Lobster (PR: 7)
7. Jackie (PR: 8)
8. Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
9. FlorenceFosterJenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
10. I, DanielBlake (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Moonlight and Loving – *moved to Adapted Screenplay
Patriots Day
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked, was moved from Original Screenplay)
2. Fences (PR: 1)
3. Lion (PR: 3)
4. Silence (PR: 2)
5. Arrival (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. HacksawRidge (PR: 7)
7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
8. Loving (Not Ranked – previously listed in Original Screenplay)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
10. Sully (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Elle
Indignation
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia (PR: 1)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 3)
3. Moana (PR: 2)
4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)
5. Finding Dory (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The Little Prince (PR: 6)
7. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 8)
8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 7)
9. Trolls (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sausage Party (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Miss Hokusai
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. 13th (PR: 1)
2. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 5)
3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 2)
4. Gleason (PR: 3)
5. Life, Animated (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Cameraperson (PR: 7)
7. Weiner (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 6)
9. Fire at Sea (PR: 8)
10. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Miss Sharon Jones
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)
2. Elle (PR: 4)
3. The Salesman (PR: 6)
4. Land of Mine (PR: 3)
5. Fire at Sea (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
6. Neruda (PR: 10)
7. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (PR: 9)
8. Julieta (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ma’Rosa (PR: 7)
10. The Ardennes (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
A Man Called Ove
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Jackie (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Lion (PR: 7)
8. Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
10. Live by Night (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Allied (PR: 6)
4. Love & Friendship (PR: 3)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities
6. Live by Night (PR: 4)
7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
8. Silence (PR: 5)
9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)
10. Fences (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Fences
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 6)
5. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Lion (PR: 4)
8. Manchester by the Sea (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Fences (PR: 10)
10. Jackie (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Hell or High Water
Live by Night
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 7)
3. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 3)
5. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Suicide Squad (PR: 8)
7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)
9. Doctor Strange (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 4)
Dropped Out:
The BFG
Hidden Figures
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 2)
3. Jackie (PR: 4)
4. Moana (PR: 5)
5. NocturnalAnimals (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 7)
7. Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)
9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The BFG (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Arrival
Hidden Figures
Hacksaw Ridge
Manchester by the Sea
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 1)
2. “We Know the Way” from Moana (PR: 2)
3. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 3)
4. “Letter to the Free” from 13th (PR: 7)
5. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. “Can’t Stop the Feeling” from Trolls (PR: 6)
7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po (PR: 4)
9. “I See Victory” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
10. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Runnin” from Hidden Figures
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Jackie (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Live by Night (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Fences (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Allied (PR: 10)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)
10. Love & Friendship (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 4)
4. Sully (PR: 9)
5. The Jungle Book (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities
6. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 8)
7. Arrival (PR: 6)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 5)
9. Passengers (PR: 10)
10. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Silence
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 5)
4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 7)
5. Arrival (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
6. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)
7. Sully (PR: 4)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 3)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Passengers (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
3. Arrival (PR: 6)
4. Doctor Strange (PR: 2)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. The BFG (PR: 7)
7. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 8)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A Monster Calls (PR: 4)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
Captain America: Civil War
That leaves the following breakdown for nominations:
14 Nominations
La La Land
9 Nominations
Arrival
7 Nominations
Moonlight
6 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea, Silence, Jackie, Hacksaw Ridge
5 Nominations
Lion
4 Nominations
Fences
3 Nominations
Moana, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Sully, Hell or High Water, Elle, 13th, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, The Jungle Book, 20th Century Women, Nocturnal Animals
1 Nomination
Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, Finding Dory, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, Gleason, Life, Animated, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, Fire at Sea, Allied, Love & Friendship, Star Trek Beyond, Rules Don’t Apply, Live by Night, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange.
And there you have it, folks! Updated predictions will be up next Thursday. Stay tuned…
The most visible Oscar precursor is unveiled tomorrow when the Golden Globe nominations come out. Unlike the Academy Awards, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association divides its Picture and lead acting races into two categories: Drama and Musical/Comedy. Additionally, it doesn’t split the screenplay race into Adapted and Original like the Oscars do.
Tonight on the blog, I am giving you my estimates for what and who will be nominated at the Globes, along with picking an alternate and a potential surprise in these races.
Let’s get to it!
BESTPICTURE (DRAMA)
Predicted Nominees
Arrival
Fences
ManchesterbytheSea
Moonlight
Silence
Alternate: Jackie
Potential Surprise: Fences not getting a nod, allowing Jackie or Lion or HacksawRidge to get in.
BESTPICTURE (MUSICALORCOMEDY)
Predicted Nominees
FlorenceFosterJenkins
LaLaLand
TheLobster
RulesDon’tApply
20thCenturyWomen
Alternate: Hail, Caesar!
Potential Surprise: CaptainFantastic managing to get recognized.
BESTDIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees
Damien Chazelle, LaLaLand
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, ManchesterbytheSea
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Alternate: Denzel Washington, Fences
Potential Surprise: Pablo Larrain getting a nod for Jackie.
BESTACTOR (DRAMA)
Predicted Nominees
Casey Affleck, ManchesterbytheSea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, HacksawRidge
Tom Hanks, Sully
Denzel Washington, Fences
Alternate: Andrew Garfield, Silence – will be interesting to see which pic he’s nominated for.
Potential Surprise: Michael Keaton landing a nom for TheFounder, which could significantly boost his Oscar talk.
BESTACTOR (MUSICALORCOMEDY)
Predicted Nominees
Warren Beatty, RulesDon’tApply
Colin Farrell, TheLobster
Ryan Gosling, LaLaLand
Hugh Grant, FlorenceFosterJenkins
Viggo Mortensen, CaptainFantastic
Alternate: Adam Driver, Paterson
Potential Surprise: Grant not being nominated, which would essentially kill his slimming chances for a Supporting Actor Oscar nod.
BESTACTRESS (DRAMA)
Predicted Nominees
Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, MissSloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Alternate: Rachel Weisz, Denial
Potential Surprise: Hearing Rebecca Hall’s name called for the little seen Christine.
BESTACTRESS (MUSICALORCOMEDY)
Predicted Nominees
Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship
Annette Bening, 20thCenturyWomen
Susan Sarandon, TheMeddler
Emma Stone, LaLaLand
Meryl Streep, FlorenceFosterJenkins
Alternate: Sally Field, MyNameisDoris
Potential Surprise: Hailee Steinfeld sneaking in for the critically lauded TheEdge of Seventeen.
BESTSUPPORTINGACTOR
Predicted Nominees
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Lucas Hedges, ManchesterbytheSea
Issey Ogata, Silence
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, NocturnalAnimals
Alternate: Mykelti Williamson, Fences
Potential Surprise: There could be a lot in this race, but let’s go with Aaron Eckhart getting recognized for Sully or BleedforThis.
BESTSUPPORTINGACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
Viola Davis, Fences
Greta Gerwig, 20thCenturyWomen
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Michelle Williams, ManchesterbytheSea
Alternate: Helen Mirren, EyeintheSky
Potential Surprise: Molly Shannon’s small indie work in OtherPeople making the cut.
BESTSCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
Arrival
LaLaLand
ManchesterbytheSea
Moonlight
Silence
Alternate: Fences
Potential Surprise: Well, predicting Fences gets left off is a bit of a surprise, so let’s go with that.
I’ll have a post up tomorrow recounting how I did with these predictions. Until then…
Official reviews are at last out today for Martin Scorsese’s Silence. Focused on Jesuit priests being persecuted in Japan in the 17th century, the film has long been a passion project for the heralded director. It’s also long been thought of as a potential major Oscar contender and the buzz certainly confirms that notion. Early reviews are strong enough that Silence looks highly likely to be nominated for both Picture and Director.
In the 21st century, five of the six pictures that Scorsese directed scored Picture nods. The only one that didn’t was 2010’s ShutterIsland and that wasn’t really made for awards attention. Only TheDeparted won the big race along with Scorsese getting his only win ever in Director. Marty’s big competition is in the form of LaLaLand and its director Damien Chazelle, which still appears to be hold front runner status. In the Directing category, the work of Barry Jenkins in Moonlight is also garnering talk.
Screenwriter Jay Cocks looks assured for an Adapted Screenplay nomination. Silence could also score a number of down the line nods in Cinematography, Editing, Costume Design, and Production Design.
The acting possibilities for recognition is a bit more complicated. Andrew Garfield is competing against himself in Actor and there’s a very good chance he’d be nominated instead for HacksawRidge (or not at all). Then there’s Supporting Actor with Liam Neeson, Adam Driver, and Issey Ogata in the mix. For months, it was presumed that Neeson would stand the best chance, but the Los Angeles Film Critics named Ogata their runner-up for his supporting work. Driver has gotten some ink for reportedly losing 50 pounds for his role here and the Academy loves stuff like that. Add that up and it’s more uncertainty in an already quite uncertain Supporting Actor derby.
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