Tag: Illumination Entertainment

July 17-19 Box Office Predictions

Christopher Nolan’s eagerly awaited epic The Odyssey looks to dominate the box office charts this weekend. Perched in what has become the bankable filmmaker’s typical mid-July release date, it is the only new picture out wide and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The Odyssey Box Office Prediction

The range for The Odyssey is all over the map for the adaptation of Homer’s tale. On the low end we are talking $80 million while the rosiest expectations have it landing around $130 million. My projection gives it nine digits out of the gate for what should be a healthy summer run.

Holdover family friendly flicks should populate spots 2-4. Disney’s Moana did not have a splashy start (more on that below) and we could see a mid 50s decline to just below $20 million. Animated efforts Minions & Monsters and Toy Story 5 should follow.

After a subpar premiere, Evil Dead Burn is likely to round out the top five with a hefty decline typical for horror fare.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $106.2 million

2. Moana

Predicted Gross: $19.1 million

3. Minions & Monsters

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million

4. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

5. Evil Dead Burn

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (July 10-12)

A lot of parents and kids sat out the live-action rendering of Disney’s Moana. With mediocre reviews and quiet buzz, the musical adventure starring Dwayne Johnson brought in $43.1 million. With a reported $250 million price tag, that’s a huge letdown for the Mouse Hunt and well under my $54.3 million prediction.

After a less than anticipated rollout over the Fourth of July frame, Minions & Monsters dropped to second with $21.1 million. That’s in range with my $20 million call as Illumination Entertainment’s latest animated comedy declined 43%. The two-week take is $108 million as it is poised to become the lowest grossing domestic earner of the seven Despicable Me/Minions sagas.

Toy Story 5 was third with $19 million, ahead of my $16.2 million forecast. The fifth feature in the Pixar franchise sits at $404 million after four weeks.

Evil Dead Burn was not a hot commodity in fourth with just $13.7 million compared to my generous $21.9 million take. The third entry in this current iteration of Dead series came in well below the mid 20s debuts of its predecessors.

Young Washington proved to be a Fourth of July play with a considerable 64% plummet in its sophomore weekend. At $6.9 million, it failed to reach my $11 million projection. The two-week total is a laudable $33 million for the Angel Studios production.

Finally, Olivia Wilde’s acclaimed comedy The Invite expanded nationwide and was sixth with $5.7 million (I said $6.4 million). It has made $7.3 million when factoring in the limited engagements that started a couple weeks back.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 10-12 Box Office Predictions

Disney’s live-action version of Moana should top the charts, but it could face choppy waters in a marketplace with competition for kiddos and their parents. We also have Evil Dead Burn, the latest entry in that 45-year-old horror franchise and the nationwide expansion of Olivia Wilde’s acclaimed comedy The Invite. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Moana (2026) Box Office Prediction
Evil Dead Burn Box Office Prediction
The Invite Box Office Prediction

The Mouse House will easily achieve #1 but not bragging rights for Moana. My mid 50s forecast would cook up a disappointing start for Dwayne Johnson’s latest and that would mark the second lowball family flick debut in as many weekends.

I am referring to Minions & Monsters. Its unimpressive rollout (more on that below) was a Fourth of July surprise. If it eases in the mid 40s, the latest animated adventure in the series may have to settle for third.

That’s because Evil Dead Burn seeks a runner-spot slot as it hopes to post a $20M+ opening like its predecessors. I’m projecting it will get there.

Toy Story 5 and Young Washington should round out the top five and I have each declining in the mid 40s range.

As for The Invite, a mid single digits result in its nationwide expansion should mean sixth place.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Moana

Predicted Gross: $54.3 million

2. Evil Dead Burn

Predicted Gross: $21.9 million

3. Minions & Monsters

Predicted Gross: $20 million

4. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

5. Young Washington

Predicted Gross: $11 million

6. The Invite

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

Box Office Results (July 3-5)

With Minions & Monsters, Illumination Entertainment experienced the smallest debut of the seven Despicable Me/Minions movies with a far less than anticipated $37 million from Friday to Sunday and $62 million since its Wednesday bow. To put it mildly, I was more optimistic with respective estimates of $66.4 million and $106.5 million. The studio was obviously banking on more fireworks at the multiplex as this received stronger reviews than its predecessors.

Toy Story 5 slid to second after two weeks in 1st with $30.3 million, under my $35.4 million call. The three-week tally builds to $365 million.

Young Washington from Angel Studios took advantage of the holiday with its historical subject and earned $19.3 million in third. That’s on par with my $18.5 million take.

Supergirl crash landed once again in its sophomore weekend with a 77% fall to $8.6 million. I thought it might only crater in the mid 60s and went with $13.2 million. Summer’s biggest bomb has collected a piddly $57 million domestically.

Disclosure Day rounded out the top five with a 30% ease and $5.7 million. I incorrectly had Steven Spielberg’s sci-fi tale on the outside looking in and it crossed the century mark at $105 million after four weeks.

Obsession finally performed like a normal summer pic by decreasing 46% in sixth with $5.2 million (I said $6.8 million). The eight-week tally is $245 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Minions & Monsters

It’s not often that the seventh feature in a franchise is considered to be the strongest (sorry Diamonds Are Forever and Saw: The Final Chapter). However, plenty of critics are claiming that to be the case for Minions & Monsters. Out today and prepared to rule the Fourth of July holiday weekend, this is Illumination Entertainment’s latest entry in their blockbuster animated comedic adventures. Pierre Coffin directs and voices the adorable little yellow creatures once again. Familiar faces providing behind the mic contributions include Trey Parker, Allison Janney, Christoph Waltz, Jesse Eisenberg, Jeff Bridges, Zoey Deutch, and Bobby Moynihan.

This is the third feature with the Minions moniker after the 2015 original and 2022 sequel Minions: The Rise of Gru. The series got started sixteen summers ago with Despicable Me and its three follow-ups. An ode to Hollywood in the 1920s, Monsters stands at 90% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s the freshest RT score of the septet, topping Despicable Me‘s 80% and well ahead of Minions (55%) and Rise of Gru (70%). The 67 Metacritic lags only behind the first Despicable at 72.

The franchise’s Oscar track record got off to a promising start and then leveled off. In 2010, Despicable Me landed a Best Animated Feature nod. In 2013, the sequel was up in that race and also for the inescapable ditty “Happy” from Pharrell Williams in Original Song. None of those nominations resulted in victories and the four pics since haven’t received any recognition.

Monsters has the potential to change that with its better than expected reviews. A Best Animated Feature slot in the quintet is not out of the question. That said, competition is a factor. I’d put it behind Disney’s Hoppers and Toy Story 5 and upcoming releases like Wildwood, Ray Gunn, and Tangles are anticipated to contend. Time will tell if there’s room for the Minions and it might be an uphill battle. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

July 3-5 Box Office Predictions

Animation domination looks to be in order over the holiday weekend with Minions & Monsters debuting and Toy Story 5 sliding to the runner-up slot. Angel Studios is also releasing Young Washington focused on the formative years of America’s 1st POTUS. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Minions & Monsters Box Office Prediction
Young Washington Box Office Prediction

The seventh feature in Illumination Entertainment’s Despicable Me/Minions franchise, Monsters is unleashed on Wednesday. The Fourth of July falls on a Saturday where many families will opt for literal fireworks instead of causing financial ones at the multiplex. I’ll project mid 60s for Friday to Sunday while topping nine digits over the five-day rollout.

Young Washington‘s projections are all over the map with some as low as $10 million and others in the $30 million range. The timing of release is hopefully shrewd for its studio. I’m basically splitting the difference with a high teens gross and that should be good for third.

Toy Story 5 may lose around 50% of its audience (especially with the Minions competition) for second place. The sophomore frame decline for Supergirl should be far more significant after a weak opening (more on that below). I have it plummeting in the mid 60s for low teens while Obsession should round out the top five.

Here’s how I envision it shaking out:

1. Minions & Monsters

Predicted Gross: $66.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $106.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $35.4 million

3. Young Washington

Predicted Gross: $18.5 million

4. Supergirl

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

5. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

Box Office Results (June 26-28)

Toy Story 5 fell an understandable 56% in weekend #2 to $70.8 million after a franchise best start. I had it holding stronger at $80.6 million though Disney/Pixar is perfectly happy with the $298 million in its domestic coffers.

The story of the week was the collective meh that audiences and critics greeted Supergirl with. The second pic in the newly configured DC Universe after last summer’s Superman, the stand-alone effort for the Man of Steel’s cousin brought in only $37.1 million compared to my $44.5 million call. To put that in perspective, Superman from last summer started off with $125 million.

Obsession was third with $9.7 million, a touch more than my $9 million forecast. The horror sensation has amassed $233 million after seven weeks.

No previous Jackass flick has earned less than $20 million out of the gate before now. However, series finale Jackass: Best and Last ensured it probably will be the swan song. It opened in fourth with a disappointing $8.4 million, under my $11.3 million projection.

Disclosure Day was fifth with $8.2 million (I said $8.4 million) for an underwhelming three-week take of $94 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Minions & Monsters Box Office Prediction

Looking to set off fireworks over the long holiday weekend, Minions & Monsters attacks multiplexes on July 1st. The seventh overall feature in the Despicable Me/Minions sagas, the animated comedy finds creator Pierre Coffin directing and voicing the beloved animated yellow creatures. The Illumination Entertainment production also features vocal contributions from Allison Janney, Christoph Waltz, Jeff Bridges, Jesse Eisenberg, Zoey Deutch, Bobby Moynihan, and Trey Parker.

A prequel set in the 1920s (nearly a half century before 2015’s Minions), Monsters should stay the course for a remarkably durable franchise. Early critical response is thumbing up as kids and parents should turn out in droves. That said, the seventh offering (behind four Despicable Me entries and two Minions flicks) is unlikely to threaten series best figures. There’s also Toy Story 5 in its third outing and it should still be performing well.

Illumination has made it a habit to open these pics in the 4th of July corridor or a tad later in the month. Minions hold the highest overall 3-day debut at $115 million right after the holiday. 2022’s Minions: The Rise of Gru opened on July 1 with a three-day take of $107 million. For this one, a Wednesday beginning is occurring. The Fourth of July is landing on a Saturday. Based on historical precedence, that should mean a dip in earnings on that date since plenty of families will be preoccupied with the 250th celebration. It also means the Wednesday and Thursday numbers should play like a traditional weekend date.

I’ll project a mid 60s gross from Friday to Sunday while it gets above nine digits for the five-day.

Minions & Monsters opening weekend prediction: $66.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $106.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Young Washington prediction, click here:

Young Washington Box Office Prediction

April 17-19 Box Office Predictions

Lee Cronin’s The Mummy will attempt to scare up decent business as the weekend’s major new wide release, but The Super Mario Galaxy Movie looks to rule the charts for a third frame. You can peruse my detailed rap on the reboot of The Mummy franchise here:

Lee Cronin’s The Mummy Box Office Prediction

My projection for the newcomer likely puts it in a battle for second place with the fifth weekend of Project Hail Mary. I’m looking for both to land in the mid to higher teens and I’ll give the latter a slight edge for a third weekend in the runner-up position. Warner Bros. would love for Cronin’s horror version of The Mummy to hit $20M+, but I’m skeptical.

As for Mario, it should have no trouble scoring the trifecta atop the box office mountain with earnings between $35-40 million. Its streak in the top spot should end in weekend #4 with musical biopic Michael slated to beat it.

Holdovers romances The Drama and You, Me & Tuscany should fill out the rest of the top five and here’s how I envision it shaking out:

1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Predicted Gross: $38.4 million

2. Project Hail Mary

Predicted Gross: $17.9 million

3. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy

Predicted Gross: $17.2 million

4. The Drama

Predicted Gross: $6 million

5. You, Me & Tuscany

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

Box Office Results (April 10-12)

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie didn’t hold as well as 2023 predecessor The Super Mario Bros. Movie, but its 48% decline was still commendable. The Illumination Entertainment sequel took in $68 million, falling below my generous $79.1 million prediction. In two weeks, the total has soared to $307 million.

Project Hail Mary eased only 24% in second with $24.1 million, ahead of my $20.6 million forecast. The sci-fi blockbuster stands at $256 million after four weeks.

The Drama with Zendaya and Robert Pattinson was third, with a solid 39% dip to $8.7 million. That’s on track with my $8.5 million call resulting in a two-week take of $30 million.

You, Me & Tuscany was fourth as the romantic comedy with Halle Bailey and Regé-Jean Page stalled with $7.7 million. I had it making more at $11.2 million.

Finally, Hoppers was fifth with $4.1 million (I said $3.6 million) as the Pixar effort jumped to $157 million after six weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

April 10-12 Box Office Predictions

After a potent start over the Easter frame, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie should easily rule the box office world yet again. You, Me & Tuscany is the only wide release newcomer likely to crack the top 5 and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

You, Me & Tuscany Box Office Prediction

Tuscany, the picturesque rom-com with Halle Bailey and Regé-Jean Page is a little bit of a mystery. It could bottom out in the high single digits or manage teens. I’m splitting the difference for a third place showing in the low double digits.

Mario Galaxy nearly rose to the opening earnings of 2023 predecessor The Super Mario Bros. Movie, but fell a bit short for what was still a terrific premiere (more on that below). Part 1 took in over $90 million in its sophomore outing and I’ve got this not reaching those heights.

Project Hail Mary should stay strong in second place and might witness the lowest percentage drop of the holdovers.

The Drama with Zendaya and Robert Pattinson opened in line with expectations. With a B Cinemascore grade (which is so-so), it could see a decline in the 50% range. However, I suspect it may ease in the lower 40s.

Hoppers should round out the top five and here’s I see it shaking out:

1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Predicted Gross: $79.1 million

2. Project Hail Mary

Predicted Gross: $20.6 million

3. You, Me & Tuscany

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

4. The Drama

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

5. Hoppers

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

Box Office Results (April 3-5)

Family audiences were certainly over the moon for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie as it hauled in $131.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $190.8 million since its Wednesday bow. While that doesn’t match the $204 million that 2023’s original banked, it shows that this franchise is on firm footing. The respective grosses eclipsed my predictions of $126.5 million and $171.2 million.

Project Hail Mary dropped to second after two weeks in first place with $31.7 million, a tad shy of my $35.2 million forecast. The sci-fi tale boasts $218 million in its coffers after three weeks.

The Drama, as mentioned, was on par with most estimates at $14.3 million in third. I thought it might climb a little higher with a $16.7 million call. It will be interesting to see if it fades quickly or has some staying power.

Hoppers was fourth with $5.8 million as the Disney/Pixar animated flick had its most significant percentage drop thanks to Mario and Luigi. I had it at $8 million. The five-week cumulation is $149 million.

Fifth place went to Reminders of Him with $2.2 million (I said $2.9 million) and $45 million after four weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is ready to launch in theaters over Easter weekend and expected to dominate the charts. The sequel to 2023’s box office juggernaut The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Aaron Horvath and Michael Jelenic are back directing Illumination Entertainment’s comedic adventure based on the Nintendo IP. Voiceover contributions come from Chris Pratt, Anya Taylor-Joy, Charlie Day, Jack Black, Keegan-Michael Key, Benny Safdie, Donald Glover, Brie Larson, and Glen Powell.

While audiences gobbled up the 2023 offering and are likely to do the same here, critics were mostly lukewarm. The original rated at 59% on Rotten Tomatoes with a 46 Metacritic. Despite some buzz for its song “Peaches”, Mario wasn’t represented in Original Song or in the Animated Feature category at the 96th Academy Awards.

Reviews are on the downslide for the follow-up with a 44% RT and 37 Meta. We’ve already seen one animated effort (Disney/Pixar’s Hoppers) that probably has a reserved slot in the Animated Feature quintet at the 99th ceremony. That’s not the case with Galaxy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

April 3-5 Box Office Predictions

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie should play to domestic and worldwide domination over the Easter holiday as April dawns. Illumination Entertainment’s animated sequel debuts alongside Zendaya and Robert Pattinson in The Drama. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie Box Office Prediction
The Drama Box Office Prediction

Three Easters back, The Super Mario Bros. Movie blew past expectations with nearly $150 million from Friday to Sunday and over $200 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. Galaxy is smartly following the same release pattern. While I don’t think the results will be quite as much, it should surpass Project Hail Mary as the year’s largest premiere.

Speaking of Mary, there’s something about its second weekend that was remarkable (more on that below). The sci-fi tale with Ryan Gosling should have no trouble being strong in the runner-up position after two weeks on top.

As for The Drama, it’s more of a question mark. It looks to draw upon the star appeal of its young leads. I have it earning a tad more than Zendaya’s Challengers from 2024 in the mid teens for a third place showing.

Holdovers Hoppers and Reminders of Him should round out the top five and here’s how I have it rolling out:

1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Predicted Gross: $126.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $171.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Project Hail Mary

Predicted Gross: $35.2 million

3. The Drama

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million

4. Hoppers

Predicted Gross: $8 million

5. Reminders of Him

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (March 27-29)

Amazon MGM had a banner sophomore frame with Project Hail Mary. After launching to $80 million, the acclaimed adaptation of Andy Weir’s novel declined a meager 33% to $54 million for a two-week haul of $163 million. Eclipsing my $44.8 million prediction, a domestic end run of over $300 million appears to be happening as the crowd favorite builds Oscar steam.

Hoppers remained in second with $12.1 million, right in line with my $12 million call. Disney/Pixar’s original story has risen to $138 million after four weeks.

Comedic horror entry They Will Kill You was DOA in its unveiling. With $4.9 million in third, the Warner Bros release failed to hit my $6.3 million forecast. Look for it to fade fast.

Reminders of Him was fourth with $4.7 million, on target with my $4.3 million estimate. The romantic drama has made a respectable $41 million after three weeks.

Dhurandhar: The Revenge was right behind in fifth with $4.6 million and I incorrectly had it outside of the high five. The total is $22 million after two weeks.

Also in its second outing, Ready or Not 2: Here I Come fell 54% to $4.1 million (I said $4.2 million). The underwhelming sequel sits at $16 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie Box Office Prediction

Illumination Entertainment looks to light up the Easter frame with The Super Mario Galaxy Movie on April 1st. The animated comedic adventure is the follow-up to 2023’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie which debuted over the same holiday to fantastic results. Aaron Horvath and Michael Jelenic are back co-directing with Chris Pratt, Anya Taylor-Joy, Charlie Day, Jack Black, Keegan- Michael Key, and Kevin Michael Richardson reprising the voices of their Nintendo character roles. Newcomers behind the mic include Benny Safdie, Donald Glover, Issa Rae, Luis Guzmán, and Brie Larson.

As mentioned, 2023’s original was a massive blockbuster. In early April, it too rolled out over an expanded five-day period to top level results. The three-day start was $146.3 million with $204.6 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. It would leg out to $574 million and become the year’s second largest domestic earner behind Barbie.

With a short lag time for the sequel, a best case scenario might be a premiere on par or slightly better than its predecessor. I suspect it might coming in lower, but still with impressive numbers.

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie opening weekend prediction: $126.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $172.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my The Drama prediction, click here:

The Drama Box Office Prediction