2022 Oscar Predictions: July 17th Edition

For my mid-July Oscar predictions, the Picture, Director, Actress, and Actor remain intact (with some ranking maneuvering). Same goes for the Screenplay races. However, there are some significant changes in the supporting fields. In Supporting Actress, I’ve moved Audra McDonald (Rustin) and Vanessa Kirby (The Son) in the final five while taking Hong Chau (The Whale) and Zoe Kazan (She Said) out. For Supporting Actor, I’ve had Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) perched in #1 for many weeks. With this update, he drops all the way out of the top 5 with Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) now in first position. This moves Colin Firth (Empire of Light) into the predicted quintet.

As for other news, Taika Waititi’s sports pic Next Goal Wins appears to have pushed to 2023 (it was originally slated for 202o) and that explains it dropping out of contention. And for those who haven’t caught the recently released trailers for She Said and Amsterdam, you can find them below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)

6. Bardo (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Son (PR: 7) (E)

8. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. She Said (PR: 11) (E)

12. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 13) (+1)

13. TAR (PR: 14) (+1)

14. White Noise (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 15) (E)

16. Elvis (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Thirteen Lives (PR: 19) (+2)

18. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 21) (+3)

19. Broker (PR: 16) (-3)

20. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 22) (+2)

21. Till (PR: 24) (+3)

22. Decision to Leave (PR: 23) (+1)

23. Amsterdam (PR: 20) (-3)

24. The Killer (PR: 25) (+1)

25. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Next Goal Wins 

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)

8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)

10. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Hirokazu Kore-ada, Broker (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Todd Field, TAR (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

George C. Wolfe, Rustin 

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cate Blanchett, TAR (PR: 6) (E)

7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (E)

12. Frances McDormand, Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris 

Michelle Williams, Showing Up

Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White, and Water 

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (E)

7. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 7) (E)

8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Song Kang-Ho, Broker (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 10) (E)

11. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 14) (E)

15. Christian Bale, The Pale Blue Eye (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins

Christian Bale, Amsterdam 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 12) (+7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Nina Hoss, TAR (PR: 13) (E)

14. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 14) (E)

15. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness 

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-5)

7. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 7) (E)

8. Michael Ward, Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Colin Farrell, Thirteen Lives (PR: 11) (E)

12. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

John David Washington, Amsterdam 

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)

5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Bardo (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Tar (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Rustin (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Broker (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Decision to Leave (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Amsterdam (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Bros (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Aftersun 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Son (PR: 2) (E)

3. Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Whale (PR: 4) (E)

5. White Noise (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. She Said (PR: 6) (E)

7. Thirteen Lives (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Till (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Good Nurse (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 15) (+4)

12. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Bones and All (PR: 13) (E)

14. Close (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Killer (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Next Goal Wins

The Pale Blue Eye 

You can anticipate the next update around the first of August!

2022 Oscar Predictions: July 4th Edition

It’s been a week and a half since I updated my estimates in the current eight Oscar races that I’m prognosticating. As July dawns, not much has changed. It’s still the same 10 Best Pic nominees though the ranking numbers have ebbed and flowed a bit.

The only actual shift is in Supporting Actress where I’m putting Zoe Kazan (She Said) back in over Audra McDonald (Rustin).

However, if you look below the predicted five in the acting derbies, you’ll see some names for the first time. They include Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Jennifer Lawrence (Red, White and Water), and Dolly De Leon and Woody Harrelson (both for Triangle of Sadness).

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)

6. Bardo (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Son (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities: 

11. She Said (PR: 11) (E)

12. White Noise (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Tar (PR: 17) (+3)

15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 16) (+1)

16. Broker (PR: 14) (-2)

17. Elvis (PR: 18) (+1)

18. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Thirteen Lives (PR: 21) (+2)

20. Amsterdam (PR: 15) (-5)

21. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 22) (+1)

22. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 23) (+1)

23. Decision to Leave (PR: 19) (-4)

24. Till (PR: 24) (E)

25. The Killer (PR: 25) (E)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)

8. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)

9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Hirokazu Kore-ada, Broker (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 15) (+2)

14. George C. Wolfe, Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave

Maria Schrader, She Said 

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (E)

7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (E)

8. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (E)

12. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Michelle Williams, Showing Up (PR: 14) (E)

15. Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White, and Water (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling

Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run 

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (E)

7. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 7) (E)

8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Christian Bale, Amsterdam (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 14) (E)

15. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)

5. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 6) (E)

7. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 10) (E)

11. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Margot Robbie, Amsterdam 

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 8) (E)

9. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (E)

10. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (E)

11. Colin Farrell, Thirteen Lives (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)

14. John David Washington, Amsterdam (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Don Cheadle, White Noise

Tom Hanks, Elvis 

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)

5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Bardo (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rustin (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Broker (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tar (PR: 10) (E)

11. Amsterdam (PR: 11) (E)

12. Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Bros (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Don’t Worry Darling

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Son (PR: 2) (E)

3. Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Whale (PR: 4) (E)

5. White Noise (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. She Said (PR: 6) (E)

7. Next Goal Wins (PR: 7) (E)

8. Thirteen Lives (PR: 14) (+6)

9. Till (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 10) (E)

11. The Good Nurse (PR: 12) (+1)

12. The Killer (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Bones and All (PR: 9) (-4)

14. The Pale Blue Eye (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Avatar: The Way of Water

2022 Oscar Predictions: June 23rd Edition

My final Oscar predictions for the month of June comes with some news out today that Yorgos Lanthimos’s Poor Things is likely delayed until 2023. While I didn’t have it being nominated in any of the major races, it was listed in other possibilities in Picture, Director, Actress (Emma Stone), Supporting Actor (for Willem Dafoe and Mark Ruffalo), and Adapted Screenplay.

As for other shifts, I’m putting Empire of Light back in the 10 BP nominees and that’s to the detriment of She Said. In Supporting Actress, I’m dropping Zoe Kazan in She Said from the high five in favor of Rustin‘s Audra McDonald.

I’ll additionally note that Top Gun: Maverick continues to rise as it flies to the #12 slot. Its continued box office domination increases the chances for BP inclusion. Time will tell if it breaks the top 10 or eventually falls out of favor. However, I have no doubt now that Paramount will mount a robust campaign considering its phenomenon status.

In Best Actor, the #1 position is back to Hugh Jackman (The Son) over Brendan Fraser in The Whale. Speaking of the former pic, I’ve moved Laura Dern’s work to supporting instead of lead.

You can peruse all the movement below!

Best Picture 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. Women Talking (PR: 6) (+1)

6. The Son (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Bardo (PR: 7) (E)

8. Empire of Light (PR: 11) (+3)

9. The Whale (PR: 9) (E)

10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. She Said (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 18) (+6)

13. White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Broker (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Amsterdam (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Tar (PR: 19) (+2)

18. Elvis (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Decision to Leave (PR: 16) (-3)

20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 21) (+1)

21. Thirteen Lives (PR: 22) (+1)

22. Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)

23. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 24) (+1)

24. Till (PR: 25) (+1)

25. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Poor Things

Armageddon Time

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 11) (+4)

8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Hirokazu Kore-ada, Broker (PR: 10) (E)

11. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (E)

13. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Todd Field, Tar (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things 

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (E)

7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (E)

12. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Michelle Williams, Showing Up (PR: 14) (E)

15. Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Emma Stone, Poor Things 

Laura Dern, The Son (moved to Supporting Actress)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (E)

7. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Christian Bale, Amsterdam (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 15) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Actress)

7. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Margot Robbie, Amsterdam (PR: 14) (E)

15. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Anne Hathaway, Armageddon Time 

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (E)

10. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: Not Ranked)

13. John David Washington, Amsterdam (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Don Cheadle, White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (+6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bardo (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Rustin (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Broker (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Adapted)

10. Tar (PR: 10) (E)

11. Amsterdam (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Bros (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Aftersun

Armageddon Time

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story 

Nope 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Son (PR: 2) (E)

3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Whale (PR: 3) (-1)

5. White Noise (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. She Said (PR: 6) (E)

7. Next Goal Wins (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Till (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Bones & All (PR: 12) (+3)

10. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (+5)

11. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

12. The Good Nurse (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 13) (E)

14. Thirteen Lives (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Poor Things 

The Banshees of Inisherin (moved to Original Screenplay)

2022 Oscar Predictions: June 13th Edition

My updated weekly Oscar predictions goes from 6 categories to 8 with the inclusion of both screenplay derbies! It’s the first time we’ve seen some titles in my possibilities such as Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Nope, The Greatest Beer Run Ever, and Bones & All. 

As for changes in the other races, I’m putting Rustin back in BP and that means Empire of Light drops from the top ten. Danielle Deadwyler (Till) returns to my top five in Actress over Cate Blanchett in Tar. 

You can peruse all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Son (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Bardo (PR: 7) (E)

8. She Said (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Whale (PR: 9) (E)

10. Rustin (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Empire of Light (PR: 10) (-1)

12. White Noise (PR: 20) (+8)

13. Broker (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Amsterdam (PR: 14) (E)

15. Poor Things (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Decision to Leave (PR: 15) (-1)

17. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 18) (+1)

18. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 17) (-1)

19. Tar (PR: 16) (-3)

20. Elvis (PR: 21) (+1)

21. Next Goal Wins (PR: 22) (+1)

22. Thirteen Lives (PR: 19) (-3)

23. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)

24. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 25) (+1)

25. Till (PR: 24) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Aftersun 

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)

7. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hirokazu Kore-eda, Broker (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 13) (E)

14. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (E)

15. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

George C. Wolfe, Rustin 

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 3) (E)

4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (E)

9. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 10) (E)

11. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (E)

12. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Michelle Williams, Showing Up (PR: 14) (E)

15. Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 2) (E)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)

5. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Christian Bale, Amsterdam (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Song Kang-Ho, Broker (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (E)

12. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 12) (E)

13. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Michael Ward, Empire of Light

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 9) (E)

10. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Anne Hathaway, Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 13) (E)

14. Margot Robbie, Amsterdam (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once 

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (-1)

12. John David Washington, Amsterdam (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 14) (E)

15. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 12) (-3)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Babylon

3. The Fabelmans

4. Bardo

5. Broker

Other Possibilities:

6. Rustin

7. Amsterdam

8. Decision to Leave

9. Empire of Light

10. Tar

11. Triangle of Sadness

12. Aftersun

13. Armageddon Time

14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery 

15. Nope 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon

2. The Son

3. The Whale

4. Women Talking

5. White Noise

Other Possibilities:

6. She Said

7. Poor Things

8. The Banshees of Inisherin

9. Next Goal Wins

10. Till

11. Thirteen Lives

12. Bones and All

13. Top Gun: Maverick

14. Avatar: The Way of Water

15. The Greatest Beer Run Ever 

2022 Oscar Predictions: June 6th Edition

My first Oscar predictions in the six major categories for the month of June sees Top Gun: Maverick rising 3 spots to #17 in the BP derby. My ten predicted nominees remain the same as do the five estimated individuals in Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. There are changes in Actress with Cate Blanchett (Tar) in my five over Danielle Deadwyler (Till) and in Supporting Actress with Hong Chau (The Whale) being elevated over Vanessa Kirby in The Son. You can peruse all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. Women Talking (PR: 6) (+1)

6. The Son (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Bardo (PR: 7) (E)

8. She Said (PR: 9)

9. The Whale (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Rustin (PR: 11) (E)

12. Broker (PR: 12) (E)

13. Poor Things (PR: 18) (+5)

14. Amsterdam (PR: 14) (E)

15. Decision to Leave (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Tar (PR: 24) (+8)

17. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 20) (+3)

18. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 19) (+1)

19. Thirteen Lives (PR: 16) (-3)

20. White Noise (PR: 15) (-5)

21. Elvis (PR: 17) (-4)

22. Next Goal Wins (PR: 23) (+1)

23. Aftersun (PR: 25( +2)

24. Till (PR: 22) (-2)

25. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Armageddon Time 

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)

7. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 11) (+4)

8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Hirokazu Kore-eda, Broker (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 12) (E)

13. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 15) (+2)

14. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (E)

15. George C. Wolfe, Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

David O. Russell, Amsterdam 

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)

5. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (E)

9. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)

10. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 10) (E)

11. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Michelle Williams, Showing Up (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)

5. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Song King-Ho, Broker (PR: 6) (E)

7. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Christian Bale, Amsterdam (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 9) (E)

10. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (E)

12. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Michael Ward, Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives

Paul Mescal, Aftersun 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 14) (E)

15. Margot Robbie, Amsterdam (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Whoopi Goldberg, Till

Anne Hathaway, Armageddon Time 

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 9) (E)

10. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 14) (+2)

13. John David Washington, Amsterdam (PR: 8) (-5)

14. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Andre Holland, Shirley

2022 Oscar Predictions: May 29th Edition

As May comes to a close and the Cannes Film Festival wraps up, I’m giving you a fresh update in the six major Oscar categories!

In Best Picture, I’m elevating Empire of Light from Sam Mendes into the top ten and that takes Rustin out. The Daniels from Everything Everywhere All at Once vault into Director to the detriment of Sarah Polley for Women Talking. 

Empire of Light also benefits in Best Actress with Olivia Colman in over Carey Mulligan from She Said. While Actor and Supporting Actress remain unchanged, there’s two alterations in Supporting Actor with Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere…) and Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon) in over John David Washington (Amsterdam) and Tom Hanks (Elvis).

You can peruse all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Son (PR: 5) (E)

6. Women Talking (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Bardo (PR: 8) (+1)

8. She Said (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Empire of Light (PR: 16) (+7)

10. The Whale (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Rustin (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Broker (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Amsterdam (PR: 11) (-3)

15. White Noise (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Thirteen Lives (PR: 21) (+5)

17. Elvis (PR: 20) (+3)

18. Poor Things (PR: 14) (-4)

19. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 15) (-4)

20. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)

21. Armageddon Time (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Till (PR: 18) (-4)

23. Next Goal Wins (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Tar (PR: 17) (-7)

25. Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Woman King

Three Thousand Years of Longing 

Don’t Worry Darling 

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

    1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dan Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 7) (E)

8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 15) (+6)

10. Hirokazu Kore’eda, Broker (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 8) (-4)

13. David O. Russell, Amsterdam (PR: 13) (E)

14. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

George C. Wolfe, Rustin 

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 2) (E)

3. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (E)

9. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Michelle Williams, Showing Up (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 14) (E)

15. Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling

Tilda Swinton, Three Thousand Years of Longing 

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Song Kang-Ho, Broker (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Christian Bale, Amsterdam (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 7 (-3)

11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 8) (-5)

14. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Joaquin Phoenix, Disappointment Blvd.

Idris Elba, Three Thousand Years of Longing 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 13) (+5)

9. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Whoopi Goldberg, Till (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Margot Robbie, Amsterdam (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Anne Hathaway, Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rooney Mara, Women Talking 

Margaret Qualley, Poor Things

Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 15) (+8)

8. John David Washington, Amsterdam (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Andre Holland, Shirley (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 12) (E)

13. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 4) (-10)

15. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Frankie Faison, Till 

2022 Oscar Predictions: May 10th Edition

My second round of Oscar predictions in the six biggest races are before you. When I update them next, we’ll be in the midst of the Cannes Film Festival where some of these hopefuls are screening.

As for category placement changes, I’ve moved Jesse Plemons in Killers of the Flower Moon to Supporting Actor from lead. It remains to be seen which contest he’s placed in. If it is supporting, we shall see if it’s him or Robert De Niro that gets the buzz. I’m betting on the latter at press time.

Let’s get into it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Women Talking (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Son (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)

7. She Said (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Bardo (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Whale (PR: 9) (E)

10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities: 

11. Amsterdam (PR: 11) (E)

12. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)

13. White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Poor Things (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 17) (+2)

16. Empire of Light (PR: 16) (E)

17. Tar (PR: 14) (-3)

18. Till (PR: 15) (-3)

19. Armageddon Time (PR: 25) (+6)

20. Elvis (PR: 22) (+2)

21. Thirteen Lives (PR: 20) (-1)

22. The Woman King (PR: 23) (+1)

23. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 24) (+1)

24. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 18) (-6)

25. Next Goal Wins (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)

5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)

7. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 8) (-2)

11. George C. Wolfe, Rustin (PR: 10) (-1)

12. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (E)

13. David O. Russell, Amsterdam (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Noah Baumbach, White Noise

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (E)

9. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run (PR: 13) (E)

14. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Tilda Swinton, Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, White Noise 

Best Actor

1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Christian Bale, Amsterdam (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Joaquin Phoenix, Disappointment Blvd. (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Idris Elba, Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 15) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 3) (E)

4. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Whoopi Goldberg, Till (PR: 8) (E)

9. Margot Robbie, Amsterdam (PR: 9) (E)

10. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 12) (E)

13. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 13) (E)

14. Margaret Qualley, Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth

Sadie Sink, The Whale

Frances McDormand, Women Talking 

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 10) (+6)

5. John David Washington, Amsterdam (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 7) (E)

8. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead Actor)

10. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Anthony Hopkins, The Son (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Frankie Faison, Till (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 8) (-6)

15. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Don Cheadle, White Noise 

2022 Oscar Predictions: May 1st Edition

Welcome to the first ranked Oscar predictions of the 2022 season for the 95th Academy Awards! I’ll be doing these every few days (once a week or every two weeks) for the high-profile races of Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. In the fall (maybe earlier), this will expand to all categories covering feature lengths films.

For BP, I will list 25 possibilities with 15 hopefuls in the others. Some quick caveats that always apply – titles of the pictures will change. Just this week, David O. Russell’s Canterbury Glass became Amsterdam and Avatar 2 is now Avatar: The Way of Water. 

Actors listed in lead will become supporting players and vice versa. Some movies will be pushed to 2023. And, of course, titles listed on the first day of May will become commercial and critical disappointments and drop off the list. Some pics and performances I’m not even considering at the moment will rise during festivals like Cannes, Toronto, Telluride, and Venice.

So let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon 

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. The Fabelmans

4. The Son

5. Women Talking

6. She Said

7. Bardo

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once

9. The Whale

10. Rustin

Other Possibilities: 

11. Amsterdam

12. White Noise

13. Poor Things

14. Tar

15. Till

16. Empire of Light

17. Avatar: The Way of Water

18. Don’t Worry Darling

19. Next Goal Wins

20. Thirteen Lives

21. The Banshees of Inisherin

22. Elvis

23. The Woman King

24. Three Thousand Years of Longing

25. Armageddon Time

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon 

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking

5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo

Other Possibilities:

6. Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

7. Florian Zeller, The Son

8. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale 

9. Maria Schrader, She Said

10. George C. Wolfe, Rustin

11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

12. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water

13. Noah Baumbach, White Noise

14. David O. Russell, Amsterdam

15. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Margot Robbie, Babylon

2. Regina King, Shirley 

3. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Carey Mulligan, She Said 

5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till 

Other Possibilities: 

6. Cate Blanchett, Tar

7. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light 

8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody 

9. Emma Stone, Poor Things 

10. Laura Dern, The Son

11. Viola Davis, The Woman King 

12. Greta Gerwig, White Noise

13. Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run 

14. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling 

15. Tilda Swinton, Three Thousand Years of Longing 

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

2. Hugh Jackman, The Son 

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon 

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin 

5. Christian Bale, Amsterdam 

Other Possibilities: 

6. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon 

7. Adam Driver, White Noise 

8. Austin Butler, Elvis 

9. Diego Calva, Babylon 

10. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans 

11. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo 

12. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives 

13. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins

14. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin 

15. Idris Elba, Three Thousand Years of Longing 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

3. Zoe Kazan, She Said

4. Vanessa Kirby, The Son 

5. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking 

Other Possibilities: 

6. Hong Chau, The Whale 

7. Jean Smart, Babylon 

8. Whoopi Goldberg, Till

9. Margot Robbie, Amsterdam 

10. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth

11. Sadie Sink, The Whale 

12. Patricia Clarkson, She Said 

13. Audra McDonald, Rustin 

14. Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King

15. Frances McDormand, Women Talking 

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

3. Brad Pitt, Babylon 

4. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once 

5. Glynn Turman, Rustin 

Other Possibilities: 

6. John David Washington, Amsterdam 

7. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

8. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans 

9. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things 

10. Tom Hanks, Elvis

11. Anthony Hopkins, The Son

12. Frankie Faison, Till

13. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking 

14. Don Cheadle, White Noise 

15. Colin Firth, Empire of Light 

2022 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Actor)

My first forecast for the major Oscar races continues with Best Actor. If you missed the posts covering the supporting categories, you can find them right here:

2022 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Supporting Actor)

2022 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Supporting Actress)

As I pointed out in my Supporting Actor write-up, we don’t know yet where some heavy hitters will be placed. I projected Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Brad Pitt (Babylon) in supporting, but they could end up here. On the flip side, Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) is listed under Other Possibilities for Actor. We’ll see if he remains here or goes supporting.

Here’s how I have it looking in this extremely early stage. Actress is next!

TODD’S APRIL 2022 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTOR

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Adam Driver, White Noise

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Hugh Jackman, The Son

Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

Other Possibilities:

Christian Bale, Canterbury Glass

Austin Butler, Elvis

Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo

Diego Calva, Babylon

Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Idris Elba, Three Thousand Years of Longing

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin 

Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins

Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans

Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives

2021 Oscar Predictions: July 29th Edition

I can’t help myself. I keep doing my Oscar predictions earlier and earlier each year. Today marks the first edition of my ranked forecasts in the 8 biggest races: Picture, Director, the four acting competitions, and the two screenplay contests.

It probably stands to reason that the sooner you do projections – the more inaccurate they might be. Oh but it’s so very fun to speculate! I do like to put my initial rankings up before the Toronto, Venice, and Telluride Film Festivals make the picture more clear and we are only about a month from that. Those events will bring us early buzz on The Power of the Dog, Dune, Spencer, The Last Duel, The Humans, Parallel Mothers, Belfast, Dear Evan Hansen, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Last Night in Soho, and more.

This post comes about three weeks ahead of when I did this in 2020. That year, to say the least, was hard to figure out. In fact, many of the pictures and performers I had in my 2020 inaugural rankings were moved back to 2021 due to COVID delays. Think Dune, The French Dispatch, West Side Story, Respect, C’Mon C’Mon, Annette, and The Eyes of Tammy Faye.

So how did my first ranked predictions from 2020 pan out? My Best Picture guesstimates yielded three of the eventual nominees: winner Nomadland, Mank, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Nomadland started out of the gate at #2 (behind Mank). Three other contenders were listed under Other Possibilities – The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, and Minari. Promising Young Woman and Sound of Metal were not mentioned.

2 of the 5 director nominees were correctly identified: winner Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) and David Fincher (Mank). None of the other hopefuls (Lee Isaac Chung for Minari, Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman, or Another Round‘s Thomas Vinterberg) were even in Other Possibilities.

In Best Actress, I initially identified 2 – winner Frances McDormand (Nomadland) and Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) and Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) were Other Possibilities while Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman didn’t score a listing.

As for Actor, winner Anthony Hopkins (The Father) and Gary Oldman (Mank) made my first cut. I incorrectly had Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) projected here instead of Supporting Actor (which he won). **This is a good time to remind you all that some of the acting contenders thought to be in lead right now will switch to supporting and vice versa. As further evidence, I had Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey) predicted in supporting, but he contended here. I did not yet have Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) or Steven Yeun (Minari) on my radar.

Two Supporting Actress players were correctly called: Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) and Olivia Colman (The Father) with Amanda Seyfried (Mank) in Other Possibilities. No mention for the winner Youn Yun-jung in Minari or Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.

Per above, Daniel Kaluuya’s work in Judas was slotted in lead, but he emerged victorious here. My Supporting Actor picks did get 2 of 5: Lakeith Stanfield in Judas and Sacha Baron Cohen for Chicago 7. The two others (Leslie Odom Jr. in One Night in Miami and Paul Raci in Sound of Metal) went unnoticed at the early stage.

Just one nominee in Original Screenplay got the initial mention – Chicago 7. I did have 3 others (winner Promising Young Woman, Judas, Minari) down for Other Possibilities while Sound of Metal wasn’t mentioned. And in Adapted Screenplay, I only rightly projected Nomadland. Winner The Father, One Night in Miami, and The White Tiger were other possibilities with no mention for Borat.

Whew. OK. I’m not going through all for 2019. However, I will say my results were better two years ago with my first picks (evidence of the uncertainty of last year). The quick rundown: I got 6 of the 9 nominees in Best Picture and identified the remaining three in other possibilities. In Director, it was 4 out of 5. For Actress – 4 for 5 with the other nominee listed sixth. Actor – 3 for 5 with the two others as possibilities. The weak spot was Supporting Actress – just 1 out of 5 with 2 others as possibilities. 2 for 5 in Supporting Actor with 2 others as possibilities. 3 for 5 initially in both screenplay races.

And now we come to 2021. Will I look back next year and be happy with the accuracy or shake my head? Hopefully a mix (that’s probably the best case scenario). In about two months, I will start predictions for all categories covering feature films and whittle BP from 25 to 15 hopefuls with all others going from a projected 15 to 10.

There already was some news from when I penned my early and unranked predictions last week. David O. Russell’s Canterbury Glass, with an all star cast led by Christian Bale and Margot Robbie, has reportedly moved to 2022. It was mentioned in numerous categories (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor – John David Washington) and it now waits its turn until next year. Same story for Taika Waititi’s Next Goal Wins and Blonde from Andrew Dominik.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. House of Gucci

2. The Power of the Dog

3. The Tragedy of Macbeth

4. Nightmare Alley

5. Dune

6. Soggy Bottom

7. Mass

8. West Side Story

9. Belfast

10. Don’t Look Up

Other Possibilities:

11. A Hero

12. CODA

13. Flee

14. The French Dispatch

15. Spencer

16. Tick Tick… Boom!

17. Cyrano

18. The Humans

19. Blue Bayou

20. King Richard

21. The Last Duel

22. Dear Evan Hansen

23. In the Heights

24. Last Night in Soho

25. Annette

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune

3. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

4. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley

5. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom

7. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero

8. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

10. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up

11. Fran Kranz, Mass

12. Sian Heder, CODA

13. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee

14. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch

15. Pablo Larrain, Spencer

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

2. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth

3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect 

5. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Other Possibilities:

6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

7. Kristen Stewart, Spencer

8. Emilia Jones, CODA

9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley

11. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World

12. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

13. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel

14. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up

15. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

3. Will Smith, King Richard

4. Adam Driver, House of Gucci

5. Amir Jadidi, A Hero

Other Possibilities:

6. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom!

7. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey

8. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley

10. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up

11. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon

12. Cooper Hoffman, Soggy Bottom

13. Adam Driver, Annette

14. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

15. Nicolas Cage, Pig

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ann Dowd, Mass

2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

3. Martha Plimpton, Mass

4. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans

5. Marlee Matlin, CODA

Other Possibilities:

6. Ruth Negga, Passing

7. Olga Merediz, In the Heights

8. Regina King, The Harder They Fall

9. Thomasin McKenzie, The Power of the Dog

10. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley

11. Judi Dench, Belfast

12. Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho

13. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up

14. Audra McDonald, Respect

15. Sally Hawkins, Spencer

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom

2. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

3. Jason Isaacs, Mass

4. Richard Jenkins, The Humans

5. Idris Elba, The Harder They Fall

Other Possibilities:

6. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth

7. Richard E. Grant, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

8. Jared Leto, House of Gucci

9. Reed Birney, Mass

10. Ben Mendelsohn, Cyrano

11. Jamie Dornan, Belfast

12. Adam Driver, The Last Duel

13. Al Pacino, House of Gucci

14. Brendan Gleeson, The Tragedy of Macbeth

15. David Alvarez, West Side Story

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mass

2. Soggy Bottom

3. Don’t Look Up

4. The French Dispatch

5. Blue Bayou

Other Possibilities:

6. Belfast

7. Spencer

8. C’Mon C’Mon

9. Last Night in Soho

10. Being the Ricardos

11. Annette

12. The Harder They Fall

13. After Yang

14. Nine Days

15. Red Rocket

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. House of Gucci

2. The Power of the Dog

3. The Tragedy of Macbeth

4. Nightmare Alley

5. Dune

Other Possibilities:

6. CODA

7. The Humans

8. West Side Story

9. Cyrano

10. Tick Tick… Boom!

11. Dear Evan Hansen

12. The Last Duel

13. The Lost Daughter

14. King Richard

15. A Journal for Jordan

Back at it next week, ladies and gents!