My third write-up in my Best Picture: Final Five series brings us to 2011. As a reminder, the concept is fairly simple. After 2008, the Academy wanted to broaden the amount of nominees in the big race beyond a set five. For 2009 and 2010, that number was a firm 10.
However, in 2011, the rules changed so that there could be anywhere from 5-10 BP contenders. Until the Academy reverted back to 10 definite hopefuls last year, that number fluctuated between 8-9. For the inaugural year with the changeup, it was 9.
This post series engages in revisionist and speculative history. What if the rule of five BP nominees had never been altered? What would’ve made the cut? What would wind up on the cutting room floor? In 2011, we know it would’ve included the winner – Michel Havanavicius’s French black and white silent dramedy The Artist.
What else? Let’s consider the other eight one by one…
The Descendants
Alexander Payne’s works had received Academy attention before with 2002’s About Schmidt and 2004’s Sideways. This George Clooney led dramedy nabbed four additional mentions for its star, director, editing, and adapted screenplay – where it won.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. The screenplay victory and inclusion in key races such as directing and editing seal the deal.
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The rare BP nominee that received only one other nod – Max Von Sydow in Supporting Actor. This was, to be kind, a unique and unexpected nod as Stephen Daldry’s 9/11 themed drama with Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock managed just a 45% Rotten Tomatoes rating as well as subpar box office.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. The fact that it made the final 9 is still pretty shocking and is widely considered an underserving inclusion.
The Help
Based on a huge bestseller, Tate Taylor’s The Help was beloved by audiences to the tune of $169 million at the box office. Beyond Picture, it received three other nods: Actress (Viola Davis), Supporting Actress (Jessica Chastain), and another Supporting Actress nod and win for Octavia Spencer.
Does It Make the Final Five?
It’s awfully tempting to say yes given its popularity, but no. I’d feel more comfortable putting it in the final five had it nabbed a screenplay or editing or directing nod (even just one of them).
Hugo
Martin Scorsese’s family adventure garnered the most nominations on Oscar night (11), one more than The Artist. That includes Director, Adapted Screenplay, Score, Costume Design, Editing, and wins for its Sound Editing and Mixing, Art Direction, Cinematography, and Costume Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes and quite easily with that impressive haul.
Midnight in Paris
This was a critical and commercial comeback for Woody Allen and it won Original Screenplay with additional nods for Allen’s direction and the art direction.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. While he’s basically blackballed from Hollywood in 2022, it was a different story 11 years ago for Allen and the Academy would’ve rewarded him for this return to form.
Moneyball
Bennett Miller followed up Capote with this acclaimed baseball drama that received five additional nominations – Actor (Brad Pitt), Supporting Actor (Jonah Hill), Adapted Screenplay, Sound Mixing, and Editing. It ended up going 0 for 6.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. As I’ve explained before, Picture and Director rarely matched 5/5 before 2009. This is my pick for the BP nominee where the filmmaker didn’t make the cut.
The Tree of Life
Terrence Malick’s arty and ambitious saga served as a comeback for the legendary auteur. In addition to BP, Malick was in the quintet for his direction as was the cinematography.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. It’s not out of the question that it might’ve, but its minimal two other nods cause doubt.
War Horse
Steven Spielberg’s equine related battle flick is one of his least discussed BP contenders, but it did gallop into contention with five other mentions for Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Art Direction, and Cinematography.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Even with the pedigree, missing Editing and Screenplay is a typically dependable telltale sign.
So that means my final five from 2011 consists of:
And now for a new category on my blog that will update itself yearly after 13 initial posts covering 2009-21. It’s a simple concept. In 2009 – the Academy shifted their rules from a set amount of five Best Picture nominees to 10. That lasted for 2 years. In 2011, the number could fluctuate anywhere from 5-10. In most years, the magic number was 8 or 9 (it was never less than 8). Last year, the big race reverted back to a definite 10.
So… what if it hadn’t? What if 5 nominees was never altered? Well, Oscar speculators like yours truly would have to write posts predicting what would’ve been the final five. So that’s what this is all about.
Naturally it begins with 2009. Before that, something from 2008 might’ve contributed to the shift when The Dark Knight famously missed BP even though it was a critical darling and box office smash. A shift to 10 allowed popcorn favorites and smaller titles to make the cut. And they did.
When it comes to whittling down from 10 (or later 8 or 9) to five, there’s plenty of factors in play. What else did the movie get nominated for or win? Some races are more important than others like Director and Editing or the Screenplay derbies.
Yet it’s far from an exact science. This is educated guesswork based on Oscar history. I’ll walk through each title and give an ultimate Yes or No on whether it makes the five. The first is automatic and that’s whatever won. In 2009 that honor belonged to…
The Hurt Locker
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes because it won Best Picture.
The other 9? That’s where it gets interesting. Let’s take them alphabetically, shall we?
Avatar
When Oscar nominations rolled out near the beginning of 2010, James Cameron’s 3D sensation was basking in the glow of becoming the biggest movie ever. That meant he was breaking his own record from 13 years earlier with Titanic. Cameron was nominated for Director – losing to ex-wife Kathryn Bigelow for Locker. The film also didn’t manage a Screenplay nod though Cameron is known more for his technical prowess than writing skills. On the tech side it managed 7 nods and won three (Art Direction, Cinematography, Visual Effects). So…
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Though it lost a number of its nods to Locker, the gargantuan grosses would’ve been enough for it to advance.
The Blind Side
Sandra Bullock’s crowd pleasing football drama made her an Oscar winner. Yet those are the only two nominations it received as it couldn’t make the Adapted Screenplay shortlist. In fact, Avatar and this are the only two BP nominees not to see their scripts mentioned.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. This is a perfect example of a blockbuster getting in due to the expansion that wouldn’t have with just five.
District 9
Neill Blomkamp’s acclaimed sci-fi tale was a surprise summer hit and he’s yet to replicate its mix of audience and critical appreciation. It was nominated in three other races – Adapted Screenplay, Visual Effects, and Film Editing. No wins.
Does It Make the Final Five?
This one is actually close for me. The screenplay and editing nods certainly make it doable. If it had landed Director, I’d probably say yes. A bit of a coin flip, but I’ll land on No.
An Education
The coming-of-age pic scored Carey Mulligan an Actress nod as well as Adapted Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
It’s not totally out of the realm of possibility that it could’ve snuck in, but gotta go No. It missed a Golden Globe nod for example and a lot of the focus was on Mulligan’s work.
Inglourious Basterds
Quentin Tarantino’s WWII opus was his return to significant awards attention 15 years following Pulp Fiction. In addition to the Pic nod, he was nominated for his direction and screenplay (losing both to Locker). Other nominations: Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Cinematography, Film Editing, and a Supporting Actor victory for Christoph Waltz.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. The 8 nominations are enough to indicate as much.
Precious
The breakthrough drama from Lee Daniels scored five other mentions for Directing, Gabourey Sidibe in Actress, Mo’Nique in Supporting Actress (a victory), Adapted Screenplay (another win), and Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. The screenplay win puts it over the top.
A Serious Man
The Coen Brothers dark comedy received just one other nod for their screenplay with acclaimed lead Michael Stuhlbarg missing the Best Actor cut.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Even with the love for its brotherly makers – No.
Up
As far as I’m concerned, the Pixar masterpiece’s first few minutes should win Best Picture every year. The tearjerker was a rare animated Best Picture contender and it contended for four others. It obviously won Animated Feature as well as Original Score in addition to mentions in Original Screenplay and Sound Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
I’m saying No, but I’m not sure of that. I’d probably put it sixth.
Up in the Air
Our other Up contender is Jason Reitman’s workplace dramedy which received six nods. The others were Director, Actor (George Clooney), Supporting Actress (both Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick), and Adapted Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. While it retrieved no statues, I think it would’ve just edged other hopefuls such as Up or District 9.
So that means if 2009 had just five Best Picture nominees, I believe they would’ve been:
The Hurt Locker (winner)
Avatar
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Up in the Air
An important note – the movies here match the five Best Director nominees. That’s rare and that will be rare in subsequent postings on years that follow. From 2000-2008 that only occurred twice (2005 and 2008). So don’t get used to it.
I shall return soon with my rumblings and final five for 2010!
George Clooney’s The Tender Bar opens in limited release this December before its premiere on Amazon Prime in early January. The coming-of-age drama set in the 1970s and 80s screened at the London Film Festival over the weekend. Early reviews indicate a warm hearted tale that is unlikely to play in the highest profile races like Picture and Director.
Its famous director wooed Oscar voters 16 years ago with his second effort Good Night, and Good Luck. Scoring six nods (including Picture and Director) and winning none, it’s been slim pickings for Clooney’s behind the camera efforts ever since. 2011’s The Ides of March nabbed a sole Adapted Screenplay mention while last year’s The Midnight Sky made the cut in Visual Effects.
As I see it, The Tender Bar could play in two categories. The first is the screenplay adapted by William Monahan. He’s no stranger to Academy attention as he won in 2006 for his penmanship of Martin Scorsese’s The Departed. Inclusion there is less likely than for one of its performers.
That would be Ben Affleck. Another leading man turned writer/director, Affleck has a deep history with Oscar voters that has nothing to do with his acting. In 1997, his Good Will Hunting script with Matt Damon won. Fifteen years later, he directed and produced (hence a second trophy) Best Picture winner Argo. Surprisingly, he didn’t get a spot for his direction.
With a cast featuring Tye Sheridan, Lily Rabe, and Christopher Lloyd, the initial critical praise is being heaped upon Affleck. That’s in addition to some kudos for his supporting work in The Last Duel (out this weekend). Mr. Affleck has been on the radar screen before for his performances – think Hollywoodland, Argo, and last year’s The Way Back. Yet he’s never made the dance. As of now, the Supporting Actor derby for 2021 looks wide open. I’d go as far to say there’s no guaranteed nominees (though Jamie Dornan in Belfast and Richard Jenkins in The Humans look probable). I’ve had Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) listed at #1 for two months, but we still don’t know if his role is meaty enough to truly contend.
This could all contribute to Affleck finally getting some Academy TLC. That said, he’s been in the mix before and come up shy. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
The National Board of Review bestowed their end of year honors today and the unpredictable group showed some love for Netflix… just not in the expected way. The NBR named Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods as Best Film along with Lee taking their top filmmaking prize. Bloods, which premiered on Netflix this summer, has been seen as a prospect whose Best Picture chances are questionable. In my rankings, it has risen over recent weeks all the way up to #5.
As for its chances to win, one could legitimately argue the NBR win means it probably won’t (and it probably won’t). In the 21st century, only 4 of the 20 NBR victors took Best Picture at the big show and only one in the past decade (2003’s Mystic River, 2007’s No Country for Old Men, 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire, 2018’s Green Book).
The NBR also names 10 of their other favorite pics and they are: First Cow, The Forty-Year-Old Version, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Minari, News of the World, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Soul, and Sound of Metal. The major surprise here is easily Netflix’s The Midnight Sky from George Clooney. It received very mixed reviews and is not anticipated to play with the Academy except for tech races. The other story here is the omission of three legit Netflix contenders at the Oscars: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. In particular, Chicago is seen as the main competitor to Nomadland for BP winner. That said, only 6 of the 11 NBR pics last year nabbed Oscar attention. Two other notable exclusions from the Board are The Father and One Night in Miami.
In the acting races, Riz Ahmed took Best Actor for Sound of Metal. He’s looked at as a likely Academy contender. Similar to the Picture discussion, only 1 NBR recipient here (Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea) achieved Oscar glory. Carey Mulligan named Best Actress for Promising Young Woman. The Oscar/NBR connection is slightly better as three of the past 10 trophy takers had good fortune with the Academy. The Sound of Metal love continued in Supporting Actor with Paul Raci winning. Like Actress, it’s a 3 out of 10 match in the 2010s. Youn Yuh-jung is NBR’s Supporting Actress choice for Minari. Only 1 of the last 10 victors for the Board won the Oscar (Regina King in 2018’s If Beale Street Could Talk). Minari also took Original Screenplay with News of the World winning Adapted. Soul, the front runner for the Oscar, was named Best Animated Feature.
Bottom line: the NBR can certainly increase exposure for hopefuls, but it’s certainly not a barometer for who wins at the Oscars. Nevertheless it’s a nice day for a Netflix feature that I currently have behind three others from the streamer that weren’t named here.
Netflix’s slew of December releases that are potential Oscar contenders continues with George Clooney’s The Midnight Sky. The sci-fi drama stars its director as an Arctic scientist attempting to prevent a group of astronauts from their return to Earth due to environmental hazards. The roughly $100 million budgeted pic hits theaters in a limited fashion this Friday though most viewers will see it when it materializes on the streaming service on December 23rd. Costars include Felicity Jones, David Oyelowo, Tiffany Boone, Kyle Chandler, Demian Bichir, and Caoilinn Springall.
The review embargo lifted today and it is most certainly a mixed bag. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is at only 54%. Numerous critics have brought up recent and similar genre fare in comparison, including Gravity (which also featured Clooney), Interstellar, The Martian, and Ad Astra. Several of them say that Sky doesn’t measure up.
It has been 15 years since Clooney’s work behind the camera has significantly attracted Oscar attention with Good Night, and Good Luck. His last two directorial efforts, The Monuments Men and Suburbicon, were both critical and commercial disappointments. With a number of write-ups skewing so-so or even negative, it’s hard to envision Sky aiming for a Picture nod or for any of the actors involved to contend.
On the other hand, reviews do suggest this could be a factor in some technical races. Most notable of them is Visual Effects, Production Design, and Sound. There is also plenty of praise for the Original Score by Alexandre Desplat, a two-time winner for his work on The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Shape of Water.
Bottom line: it will be a struggle for The Midnight Sky to reach the attention of voters in the major races, but it could still end up with close to a handful of nominations. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Back at it again with another round of weekly Oscar predictions and there are changes to be discussed in every major category! We begin with the grand prize – Best Picture. For the third week in a row, we have a new #1 as I’m elevating The Trial of the Chicago 7 to front runner status for the first time. It displaces Nomadland, which falls to 2nd position while Mank goes from 2nd to 3rd.
While Trial gets top billing, I am still placing David Fincher at #1 for director as I believe that could be a bit of a career achievement recognition. As stated last week, I do think Chloe Zhao could be hot on his heels. It does feel a bit strange to have Trial as the Picture favorite while not believing Aaron Sorkin will take Director, but here we are in this strange 2020 Oscar season. Speaking of that race, I now have Lee Isaac Chung for the fast rising Minari over Paul Greengrass for News of the World.
Moving on, the review embargo lifted this week for Hillbilly Elegy and the results weren’t pretty. The Netflix title stands at just 30% on Rotten Tomatoes and that takes it out of my top 15 for Picture and top 10 in Adapted Screenplay. It also hurts the chances of its leads. Amy Adams drops out of the top 5 for Actress and that’s to the benefit of another Netflix entry with Sophia Loren in The Life Ahead. Glenn Close has been listed at #1 in Supporting Actress since I began these posts in late August. This too has changed in a currently wide open Supporting Actress field. She drops from #1 to #4, but the irony is I still think she could win. However, it’s Amanda Seyfried in Mank that vaults to #1 with Olivia Colman (The Father) and Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman) following. There’s another move in Supporting Actress with Yuh-Joun Youn for Minari in over Helena Zengel for News of the World.
In Best Actor, it’s Riz Ahmed back in the final five and that takes out Kingsley Ben-Adir in One Night in Miami. In Supporting Actor, I have David Strathairn (Nomadland) back in the predicted quintet and that drops Bill Murray (On the Rocks) to sixth. And I am starting to buy into the theory that Chadwick Boseman could be victorious in that race for Da 5 Bloods with Anthony Hopkins a seeming favorite in Best Actor for The Father. Boseman is now #1 for supporting.
Finally, it was announced that Supernova will campaign Colin Firth for Best Actor with Stanley Tucci in supporting. They are both listed in the top ten, but I believe it’s Tucci that could potentially see a rise from his #8 spot.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 3)
2. Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. The Father (PR: 7)
6. Minari (PR: 8)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 5)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Soul (PR: 12)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 13)
13. The White Tiger (PR: 14)
14. The Midnight Sky (PR: 15)
15. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hillbilly Elegy
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
5. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 4)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
9. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
4. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
5. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 8)
7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
8. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
8. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
9. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 9)
10. Colin Firth, Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
George Clooney, The Midnight Sky
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
4. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
5. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 6)
7. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United State vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Swankie, Nomadland (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nicole Kidman, The Prom
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
3. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
7. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
8. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
10. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Charles Dance, Mank
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
7. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Palm Springs
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
8. The White Tiger (PR: 9)
9. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Hillbilly Elegy
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 8)
7. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 10)
8. Connected (PR: 6)
9. Lupin III: The First (PR: 7)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 2)
2. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 1)
3. Crip Camp (PR: 3)
4. Time (PR: 7)
5. The Dissident (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. Boys State (PR: 5)
8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)
9. 76 Days (PR: 9)
10. MLK/FBI (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. New Order (PR: 2)
3. Another Round (PR: 3)
4. The Life Ahead (PR: 4)
5. The Disciple (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. My Little Sister (PR: 5)
7. Night of the Kings (PR: 7)
8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 9)
9. Charlatan (PR: Not Ranked)
10. True Mothers (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Atlantis
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 4)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rebecca (PR: 5)
7. News of the World (PR: 8)
8. Coming 2 America (PR: 6)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Tenet (PR: 7)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
4. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
5. Mulan (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Coming 2 America (PR: 5)
7. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
9. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
News of the World
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Soul (PR: 2)
3. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
4. News of the World (PR: 3)
5. Minari (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
7. Tenet (PR: 4)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
9. Ammonite (PR: 5)
10. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)
7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
8. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: 8)
9. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 9)
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 3)
4. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Rebecca (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
8. News of the World (PR: 4)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 2)
3. Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
5. Soul (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 3)
7. Greyhound (PR: 8)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Greyhound (PR: 3)
4. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 4)
7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)
8. Mank (PR: 6)
9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 9)
10. Dolittle (PR: 10)
And that shakes out to these features nabbing the following number of nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Minari, News of the World, One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
The Midnight Sky, Soul
3 Nominations
The Life Ahead, Mulan
2 Nominations
Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Birds of Prey, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Disciple, The Dissident, French Exit, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, New Order, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Rebecca, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
My weekly Oscar predictions begin with a blogger’s note. For the past two and a half months, I’ve been providing these updates each Thursday. This will now switch to every Friday (busy work schedule is the reason).
And we move on with a significant development in the rankings. For the first time since I began these predictions, the #1 slot for Best Picture is not named Mank. The David Fincher Netflix pic had its official review embargo lift today. Some of the critical reaction is excellent. Other write-ups, while still overwhelmingly positive, call into question whether this will take the biggest prize of all. It certainly still could in my estimation, but I’m currently giving an ever so slight advantage to Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland (and with The Trial of the Chicago 7 not far behind). I am still listing Fincher in top position with Director as I could envision a victory being a partial career achievement award. That said, Zhao is right on his heels as she would be the second female filmmaker ever to take the gold.
We continue to Best Actor as Amazon has confirmed the acting placements for the performers in Regina King’s One Night in Miami. Of note is that Kingsley Ben-Adir will be campaigned for in Best Actor with Leslie Odom Jr. vying for Supporting Actor. In my view, this increases the chances for both to make the cut as they won’t be competing against each other. Odom was already on my Supporting list last week. Ben-Adir jumps into the Actor final five and that’s to the detriment of Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah. Kaluuya could absolutely still get in, but there’s uncertainty as to whether he will be campaigned for in Actor or Supporting Actor. There’s also no confirmation yet as to when Warner Bros. will release the picture. So for now, he’s on the outside looking in until further information is provided.
The Actress and Supporting Actress contests remain the same without even any ranking alterations. That’s not to indicate those races aren’t fluid. There just wasn’t anything major in the past week to shift my thinking in the past 8 days.
Finally, Disney has delayed the release dates of both Death on the Nile and Free Guy to 2021 TBD. The former was a potential nominee in several tech races such as Costume Design and Production Design. The latter could have been a hopeful in Visual Effects.
And with that, let’s get to the guesstimates!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
5. News of the World (PR: 4)
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. The Father (PR: 7)
8. Minari (PR: 8)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
11. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
12. Soul (PR: 12)
13. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 13)
14. The White Tiger (PR: 14)
15. The Midnight Sky (PR: 15)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
8. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 7)
9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 6)
7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
8. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 8)
9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)
5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting Actor)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)
9. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
10. George Clooney, The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Holland, Cherry
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 6)
7. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Nicole Kidman, The Prom (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 7)
7. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
9. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 9)
10. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (moved to Best Actor)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Soul (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
7. On the Rocks (PR: 6)
8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. Palm Springs (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Forty-Year-Old Version
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
9. The White Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 4)
4. Onward (PR: 3)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Connected (PR: 6)
7. Lupin III: The First (PR: 8)
8. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
10. Earwig and the Witch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane Cannary
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 1)
2. Totally Under Control (PR: 3)
3. Crip Camp (PR: 2)
4. The Dissident (PR: 5)
5. Boys State (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. Time (PR: 7)
8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)
9. 76 Days (PR: 8)
10. MLK/FBI (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. New Order (PR: 2)
3. Another Round (PR: 3)
4. The Life Ahead (PR: 4)
5. My Little Sister (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Disciple (PR: 6)
7. Night of the Kings (PR: 5)
8. True Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 10)
10. Atlantis (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wife of a Spy
A Sun
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Tenet (PR: 6)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 5)
5. Rebecca (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)
7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)
8. News of the World (PR: 10)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Death on the Nile
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 4)
7. Tenet (PR: 6)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
3. Mank (PR: 6)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
5. Coming 2 America (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
7. Birds of Prey (PR: 2)
8. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Mulan (PR: 7)
10. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Emma
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Soul (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Tenet (PR: 4)
5. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
7. Minari (PR: 5)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
One Night in Miami
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
5. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)
7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
8. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: 10)
9. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 9)
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
3. Mulan (PR: 2)
4. News of the World (PR: 6)
5. Rebecca (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 5)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Tenet (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 6)
4. Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul (PR: 4)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
8. Greyhound (PR: 8)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Invisible Man
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Greyhound (PR: 6)
4. Mulan (PR: 3)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)
9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 8)
10. Dolittle (PR: 9)
And this equates to these pictures nabbing the following numbers of nods:
12 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
News of the World
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
Nomadland, One Night in Miami
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father
4 Nominations
Tenet
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, Soul
2 Nominations
The Life Ahead, Minari, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Rebecca
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Ammonite, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Coming 2 America, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, My Little Sister, New Order, On the Rocks, Onward, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Sound of Metal, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
The big news of the week when it comes to Oscar forecasting unquestionably involves Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, the forthcoming Netflix feature starring Viola Davis and Chadwick Boseman. The studio has confirmed that the late Mr. Boseman will contend in the lead actor race and that upends my predictions in both that category and Supporting Actor. For weeks, I have had Boseman listed in 1st position in the latter. He now moves to #2 in lead behind Anthony Hopkins in The Father.
This significant move shifts my thinking when it comes to other performers. Most notably, I am now guesstimating that Warner Bros. will campaign for Daniel Kaluuya’s work in Judas and the Black Messiah in the supporting field. To be clear, this is not confirmed and is simply speculation. However, that alteration means Kaluuya is now listed in first for Supporting Actor. This activity also means Boseman could potentially be a double nominee as Netflix is likely to mount a campaign for him with Da 5 Bloods in supporting. I have not listed him in the top ten, but it could certainly happen. The same dynamic applies to Glynn Turman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. In the coming weeks, we will see if Boseman and Turman materialize in the top ten Supporting Actor players.
While the Actor derbies see those changes (which include Bill Murray now making the cut in Supporting Actor for On the Rocks, out tomorrow on Apple TV), Picture, Director, Actress, and Supporting Actress have remained the same.
And with that, let’s see how I have each contest shaping up!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
6. The Father (PR: 7)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
9. Minari (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
11. Soul (PR: 11)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 13)
13. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 12)
14. Respect (PR: 14)
15. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ammonite
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
5. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
9. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 4)
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)
7. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 6)
10. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
5. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: 8)
9. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 9)
10. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
George Clooney, The Midnight Sky
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)
7. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: 7)
8. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 8)
9. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Swankie, Nomadland (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Best Actor)
2. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
7. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 10)
8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – moved to Best Actor
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
7. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 10)
10. Palm Springs (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Respect
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
7. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
8. First Cow (PR: 9)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Connected (PR: 6)
7. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)
8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Lupin III: The First (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane Cannary (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Trolls World Tour
Bombay Rose
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 2)
2. Totally Under Control (PR: 3)
3. Crip Camp (PR: 1)
4. Boys State (PR: 5)
5. The Dissident (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 7)
8. 76 Days (PR: 8)
9. I Am Greta (PR: Not Ranked)
10. MLK/FBI (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Welcome to Chechnya
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. Another Round (PR: 2)
3. New Order (PR: 3)
4. My Little Sister (PR: 9)
5. Night of the Kings (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Disciple (PR: 5)
7. The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 10)
9. A Sun (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wife of a Spy (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Atlantis
Ema
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 8)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
10. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)
5. Mulan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rebecca (PR: 6)
7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 9)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
9. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
News of the World
Ammonite
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 5)
4. Nomadland (PR: 3)
5. The Father (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
9. Tenet (PR: 10)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
2. Birds of Prey (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 8)
4. Mank (PR: 2)
5. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
7. Mulan (PR: 6)
8. Respect (PR: 7)
9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
4. Mank (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Over the Moon (PR: 10)
7. Ammonite (PR: 5)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tenet
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)
3. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)
4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 3)
5. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
7. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 4)
8. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 9)
10. “Carry Me with You” from Onward (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
“Love Myself” from The High Note
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 2)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
7. Rebecca (PR: 5)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
9. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ammonite
Hillbilly Elegy
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 2)
3. Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
4. Mank (PR: 7)
5. Soul (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Greyhound (PR: 4)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
9. Respect (PR: 9)
10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Greyhound (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)
7. The Call of the Wild (PR: 8)
8. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)
9. Dolittle (PR: 9)
10. The Old Guard (PR: 10)
And that equates to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
9 Nominations
News of the World
8 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
6 Nominations
Nomadland
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father, One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Soul
3 Nominations
Mulan
2 Nominations
Coming 2 America, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Minari, Over the Moon, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Ammonite, Another Round, Birds of Prey, Boys State, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, My Little Sister, New Order, Night of the Kings, The One and Only Ivan, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Respect, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
The weekly Oscar predictions keep coming as developments from the past 7 days have altered a couple of key races. Most prominent is Best Actress, a potentially crowded field that saw the debut of French Exit with Michelle Pfeiffer. The pic debuted to mixed reviews though critics did praise her work. That said, she moves out of the top 5 and so does Kate Winslet in Ammonite. The two new performers joining the final five: Amy Adams in Hillbilly Elegy and Jennifer Hudson in Respect.
Speaking of Elegy, the Netflix drama debuted its first trailer this week. Reaction was mixed, but it looks to me that Glenn Close especially solidified her status as a front runner in Supporting Actress.
In Best Actor, there’s movement as well since Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal seems to be gaining steam. He moves into the top five with Tom Hanks in News of the World dropping out. And there’s changes in Supporting Actor where we’re still waiting for category placement to be determined. I moved Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami) back to Supporting and he knocks out Yahya Abdul-Mateen II from The Trial of the Chicago 7.
Lastly, Pixar’s Soul had its review embargo lifted prior to its Christmas streaming release. Feedback is very solid with some critics proclaiming it’s in the upper echelon on the studio’s work. It could become the fourth animated feature to get a Best Picture nod. For now, I’m saying it’s definitely the heavy favorite to win Animated Feature but it could miss the cut in the biggest race of all.
And with that, the updates are below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
7. The Father (PR: 7)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
9. Minari (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
11. Soul (PR: 10)
12. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 12)
13. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Respect (PR: 14)
15. Ammonite (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
The White Tiger
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
9. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7)
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 4)
7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
8. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
9. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)
10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 9)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)
5. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)
10. George Clooney, The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (moved to Supporting Actor)
Matt Damon, Stillwater
Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 5)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)
7. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: 10)
8. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 7)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Swankie, Nomadland (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lily Collins, Mank
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 7)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 6)
8. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
10. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Tom Pelphrey, Mank
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Soul (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
7. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. Respect (PR: 9)
9. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Stillwater
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 9)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
9. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
French Exit
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Connected (PR: 7)
7. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
8. Trolls World Tour (PR: 9)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 8)
10. Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Earwig and the Witch
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Crip Camp (PR: 1)
2. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 2)
3. Totally Under Control (PR: 7)
4. The Dissident (PR: 5)
5. Boys State (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
7. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 6)
8. 76 Days (PR: 8)
9. MLK/FBI (PR: 9)
10. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Notturno
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. Another Round (PR: 2)
3. New Order (PR: 3)
4. Night of the Kings (PR: 4)
5. The Disciple (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wife of a Spy (PR: 7)
7. Atlantis (PR: 9)
8. Ema (PR: Not Ranked)
9. My Little Sister (PR: 6)
10. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
A Sun
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
8. Tenet (PR: 6)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Coming 2 America (PR: 8)
5. Mulan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rebecca (PR: Not Ranked)
7. News of the World (PR: 4)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Death on the Nile
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 7)
5. News of the World (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
10. Tenet (PR: 10)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Birds of Prey (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
4. Coming 2 America (PR: 5)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 4)
7. Respect (PR: 6)
8. Emma (PR: 9)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 2)
2. News of the World (PR: 3)
3. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
4. Mank (PR: 1)
5. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
9. Tenet (PR: 9)
10. Over the Moon (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Minari
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)
3. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 3)
4. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 4)
5. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
8. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)
10. “Carried Me with You” from Onward (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“Seen” from The Life Ahead
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 2)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. Rebecca (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
7. Ammonite (PR: 8)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Judas and and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
10. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Death on the Nile
The Midnight Sky
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 3)
3. Soul (PR: 2)
4. Greyhound (PR: 6)
5. Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
7. Mank (PR: 4)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
9. Respect (PR: 9)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Greyhound (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)
7. Birds of Prey (PR: 8)
8. The Call of the Wild (PR: 7)
9. Dolittle (PR: 10)
10. The Old Guard (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Free Guy
And that means I am estimating the following movies end up with these numbers:
11 Nominations
Mank
9 Nominations
News of the World
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
Nomadland, One Night in Miami
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father
4 Nominations
Soul
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan
2 Nominations
Ammonite, Coming 2 America, Greyhound, Minari, Over the Moon, Sound of Metal, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Birds of Prey, Boys State, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Disciple, The Dissident, Emma, Giving Voice, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, New Order, Night of the Kings, The One and Only Ivan, Onward, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Rebecca, Respect, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
My impossibly early first looks at the major Oscar races for 2020 arrives at Best Actor. If you happened to miss my posts concerning the supporting performers, you may find them here:
Unlike nearly all of the potential contenders in Supporting Actor and Actress, there are already two viable possibilities from pictures that have already screened or seen release. The Sundance Film Festival shed light on Anthony Hopkins in the forthcoming The Father while Netflix’s Spike Lee joint Da 5 Bloods showcased career best work from Delroy Lindo. If it not yet known whether Lindo will compete in lead or supporting, but I’m guessing he lands here.
As for other hopefuls, there are many intriguing storylines. On the Rocks finds comedic legend Bill Murray reuniting with director Sofia Coppola. Their 2003 collaboration Lost in Translation marked Mr. Murray’s only nomination thus far. Three years after his win for Darkest Hour, Gary Oldman will headline Netflix’s Mank from David Fincher, which on paper seems like a very awards friendly venture. And the trailer out last week for Judas and the Black Messiah appears to be a bait worthy role for Daniel Kaluuya (though its release date is still up in the air).
There’s plenty more recognizable faces to consider. I nearly put Ben Affleck among the top 15. His spring sports drama The Way Back gave him some of the best critical reaction of his career. Yet he’s likely a long shot.
In 2019, my inaugural August estimates yielded an impressive three of the five eventual nominees: Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), and Adam Driver (Marriage Story). In my 10 other possibilities, the other two contenders were also named: Jonathan Pryce in The Two Popes and the winner, Joaquin Phoenix as Joker.
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