Tag: Box Office Results

June 26-28 Box Office Predictions

Supergirl will attempt to fly high and challenge Toy Story 5 for box office bragging rights as June closes out, but it faces considerable odds. The DC Studios adventure opens alongside Johnny Knoxville and his band of pranksters in Jackass: Best and Last. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Supergirl Box Office Prediction
Jackass: Best and Last Box Office Prediction

The rosiest estimates have Supergirl approaching $60 million. Even if that occurs, it’s probably not enough to catch Toy Story 5 which should ease in the mid 40s-50 percent range. I’m taking the under with Supergirl and projecting mid 40s. That would leave it well behind in the runner-up position.

Jackass: Best and Last should the first of the five big screen franchise entries to open under $20 million. My low teens forecast would mean a third place showing as the series may be running out of steam with the alleged final edition.

Holdovers Obsession and Disclosure Day may flip spots as the former should have a smaller decline.

Here’s how I see the top 5 shaking out:

1. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $80.6 million

2. Supergirl

Predicted Gross: $44.5 million

3. Jackass: Best and Last

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million

4. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $9 million

5. Disclosure Day

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

Box Office Results (June 19-21)

Toy Story 5 had the second best Disney/Pixar sequel opening in history. That also means it had the second strongest beginning for any animated feature behind Incredibles 2. The return of Woody and Buzz kicked off in line with expectations at $159.6 million. I was a bit more generous with $166.8 million, but this is still a massively pleasing result for the Mouse House.

Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day, after a premiere at the bottom end of its anticipated range, fell a troubling 60% in its sophomore outing to $17.7 million. I figured it would hold a bit better at $21.5 million. That B Cinemascore grade is evidenced by the performance.

Obsession made $13.3 million in third as it’s finally starting to drop from week to week. I had it at $15.2 million and the horror phenomenon has hauled in $215 million after six weeks.

A24 smash Backrooms was fourth with $7.1 million (I said $6.6 million) for a four-week tally of $175 million. The news wasn’t good for A24 everywhere (more on that in a second).

Scary Movie rounded out the top five with $6.3 million, on target with my $6.1 million call. The spoof sequel is near nine digits with $97 million in three weeks.

That aforementioned A24 bad news came from The Death of Robin Hood with Hugh Jackman. With middling reviews and non-existent buzz, it bombed in 8th place with $2.8 million compared to my $3.8 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 19-21 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (06/17): It is being reported that The Death of Robin Hood is only hitting around 1000 screens so I revising my estimate down from $8 million to a mere $3.8 million. That would put it in outside of the top 5

Toy Story 5 should dominate the upcoming weekend as the franchise enters its fourth decade of existence. The other premiere is Michael Sarnoski’s The Death of Robin Hood with Hugh Jackman in the title role. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Toy Story 5 Box Office Prediction
The Death of Robin Hood Box Office Prediction

In order to set the series record for highest opening, Disney/Pixar’s fifth round of Woody and Buzz needs to top the $120 million earned by part 4 in 2019. I’ve got it doing that with plenty of room to spare. My prediction also gives it 2026’s largest out of the gate haul currently held by The Super Mario Galaxy Movie with $131 million.

I’m not expecting much from Robin Hood and my fourth place forecast could decrease if the screen count is lower than the 2000-2500 venues I’m assuming. The A24 title seemingly hasn’t picked up much buzz though it’ll hope for some Father’s Day traffic.

Disclosure Day from Steven Spielberg got off to a decent if unspectacular beginning (more on that below). The sci-fi adventure hopes for a somewhat meager sophomore frame drop though I’ve got it falling in the low to mid 50s.

Obsession should be third while holdovers Scary Movie and Backrooms should duke it out for fifth place with the latter perhaps having a slight edge.

Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:

1. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $166.8 million

2. Disclosure Day

Predicted Gross: $21.5 million

3. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million

4. Backrooms

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

5. Scary Movie

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

Box Office Results (June 12-14)

In short, everything made less than I projected over the weekend. In more detail, Disclosure Day kicked off in the middle of its anticipated range with $44.5 million. I thought Spielberg’s return to the alien genre would fare better at $51.6 million. The B Cinemascore grade, not encouraging for a blockbuster, suggests a heftier drop than I might’ve originally thought could be coming.

Obsession, in its fifth frame, at last saw it grosses go down. That said, the 25% decline to $19 million gave the horror smash (and now Oscar contender in my view) a total of $188 million thus far.

Scary Movie had a massive 74% fall in weekend #2 with $14.2 million compared to my far more generous $22 million take. The sixth edition in the spoof series sits at $84 million.

Backrooms was fourth with $11.5 million, just under my $12.4 million call. This scary movie has amassed $160 million after three weeks.

Finally, Masters of the Universe solidified placement as a summer flop with a 70% plummet in its sophomore outing with $8.9 million. Once again, my benefit doubting forecast of $13.5 million proved false. The two-week tally is a weak $46 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 12-14 Box Office Predictions

Steven Spielberg’s latest alien tale Disclosure Day looks to open impressively as the only new release in the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the legendary filmmaker’s latest here:

Disclosure Day Box Office Prediction

With solid reviews and a robust marketing campaign, Spielberg’s return to the extraterrestrial genre will have no trouble topping the charts. I do not, however, think it’ll surpass the anticipated premiere range in the mid 40s to mid 50s. I’m putting it smack dab in the middle of those figures.

The last three Scary Movie flicks have all fallen in the high 50s during their sophomore outings. After a terrific opening (more on that below), I don’t see why the sixth installment wouldn’t do the same and it might even approach 60%.

That could mean Obsession, the little horror movie that could, rises from 4th to 2nd in its fifth weekend assuming it only drops around 10% with current champ Scary Movie dropping to third. I’m estimating that Masters of the Universe and Backrooms see declines in the mid 50s and place fourth and fifth.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Disclosure Day

Predicted Gross: $51.6 million

2. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $22.8 million

3. Scary Movie

Predicted Gross: $22 million

4. Masters of the Universe

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million

4. Backrooms

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

Box Office Results (June 5-7)

Scary Movie reenergized a franchise that had been dormant for 13 years and set a series best start with $54.3 million, besting my $47.5 million projection. The spoof flicks that have been around since the beginning of the 21st century looks good to go for an eventual seventh entry and I doubt a decade plus wait will occur.

Masters of the Universe did not have the power of box office potency in second with $29.4 million, on target with my $29.8 million call. Considering the reported budget approaching $200 million, that’s a weak debut for the second big screen adaptation of the 80s Saturday morning animated show.

Backrooms was third with a considerable but understandable 68% sophomore slide. The low-budget horror hit took in $26.2 million compared to my $30.6 million forecast. The two-week tally is a fantastic $135 million.

Obsession continued its historic run in weekend #4 in fourth with $25.3 million, surpassing my $23.4 million estimate. The really low-budget horror hit grew to $151 million.

The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act, featuring episodes of the hit web series, rounded out the top five with $12.3 million, in line with my $13.1 million take. Since its Thursday start, the gross is $20.2 million.

The Mandalorian and Grogu, the summer’s most notable disappointment (more than He-Man), was sixth with $9.6 million (I said $11 million). The three-week earnings of $155 million is low for its storied franchise.

Finally, Power Ballad with Paul Rudd and Nick Jonas (despite decent critical reaction) bombed in 12th with only $1.2 million. I thought it might strike a higher chord at $4.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 5-7 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Update (06/03): A day after posting my top 5 predictions, we are making it a top 6. The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act wasn’t really on my radar screen. However, the combination of episodes for the adult web animated series opens Thursday and is expected to make some noise. My $13.1 million Friday to Sunday guesstimate gives it the 5 spot, knocking The Mandalorian to sixth.

While scary movies ruled the charts in the remarkable weekend that just happened, the franchise that spoofs them returns to theaters for the first time in 13 years and should place #1. In addition to Scary Movie, He-Man is back in multiplexes after nearly 40 years offscreen with Masters of the Universe. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Scary Movie Box Office Prediction
Masters of the Universe Box Office Prediction

Scary Movie looks to be arriving at an opportune time as horror flicks are dominating and posting previously unthought of grosses via Backrooms and Obsession. The sixth entry in the series began in 2000, it could absolutely break the franchise opening record held by Scary Movie 3 at $48 million. I’ve got it just under in what should be an uncomplicated path to the top slot.

The race for #2 is more open. Adapting the toy line and Saturday morning cartoon that began over 40 years ago (and led to a panned Dolph Lundgren live-action version in 1987), Masters needs family audiences to turn out as teens and adults will be preoccupied with Scary Movie and scary movies. My projection of just under $30 million would be considered a letdown. If Masters does my estimated figure, it opens the door for Backrooms to be second if it drops in the 60% range. That’s what I’m saying will happen in a photo finish.

Then there’s Obsession which has built its earnings from the first week to the second to the third. As mentioned before, that’s practically unheard of for any wide release movie (let alone a horror one). I have it finally easing in the mid teens in week #4, but we’re in uncharted territory here so who knows?

After a troubling second outing, The Mandalorian and Grogu should round out the top five. Finally, Power Ballad with Paul Rudd and Nick Jonas expands nationwide. I didn’t do an individual post for it. I’ll put its wide release at $4.2 million and that’s well outside the top five.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Scary Movie

Predicted Gross: $47.5 million

2. Backrooms

Predicted Gross: $30.6 million

3. Masters of the Universe

Predicted Gross: $29.8 million

4. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $23.4 million

5. The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million

6. The Mandalorian and Grogu

Predicted Gross: $11 million

Box Office Results (May 29-31)

Before Backrooms came out, A24’s largest opening weekend belonged to Civil War at $25 million. I knew Backrooms would blast past that record and predicted that it would more than double that figure at $57 million. I couldn’t have been more wrong. Based on the hit found footage web series, it more than tripled A24’s previous best at $81.4 million. To say the least, young viewers turned out in droves and a new franchise is undoubtedly born.

Obsession stayed in second and increased its crowd by 14% at $27.3 million, falling just below my $29.5 million prediction. The phenomenon now has $105 million in the bank after three weeks.

A week after experiencing the worst Star Wars start in the Disney era, The Mandalorian and Grogu had the heftiest percentage drop of them all. Falling 70%, it made $24.4 million compared to my $25.6 million call. The less than anticipated total is $136 million.

Michael was fourth with $11.8 million (I said $13 million) as the musical biopic has amassed $340 million after six weeks.

Nate Bargatze is a bestselling stand-up, but it didn’t translate to box office bucks in his first starring vehicle The Breadwinner. It sputtered in fifth with only $7.3 million. I was more generous at $12.1 million.

Finally, Pressure opened in seventh with $5.8 million. The well-reviewed World War II drama got beyond my $4.9 million estimate with the fifth highest per theater average in the top 10.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 29-31 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (05/28): Some revisions as weekday numbers for Obsession now have me thinking it will gain from its sophomore frame and place second with Mandalorian now dipping to third. Additionally, my projection for Backrooms continues to rise and I’m now putting it at $57 million, up from $54 million.

Horror flick Backrooms looks to open at the front of the charts while Nate Bargatze’s comedy The Breadwinner and World War II drama Pressure with Andrew Scott and Brendan Fraser seek impressive earnings. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

Backrooms Box Office Prediction
The Breadwinner Box Office Prediction
Pressure Box Office Prediction

Based on a popular YouTube web series, Backrooms from Kane Parsons has a wide range of possibility. A worst case scenario could put it in second place behind the second frame of The Mandalorian and Grogu. There’s also the potential for an overperformance topping approaching $60 million. My mid 50s projection puts it in first with ease.

That’s because The Mandalorian got off to a so-so start (more on that below) and I suspect it’s headed for a precipitous fall in the high 60s.

Obsession, after a remarkable sophomore weekend hold, may only slide slightly for a third place showing. That could leave The Breadwinner well behind in fourth in the low teens though Bargatze’s fanbase may turn out enough for a better than anticipated premiere. Comedies are tricky. It might also struggle to make $10 million.

As for Pressure, with a reported theater count of around 1800, my $4.9 million forecast would put it outside of the top five.

Here’s how I have that high five shaking out:

1. Backrooms

Predicted Gross: $57 million

2. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $29.5 million

3. The Mandalorian and Grogu

Predicted Gross: $25.6 million

4. Michael

Predicted Gross: $13 million

5. The Breadwinner

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

Box Office Results (May 22-25)

The Mandalorian and Grogu never appeared to have the excitement that greets Star Wars series entries and the numbers proved that over Memorial Day weekend. The continuation of the Disney+ show landed with the lowest opening of any franchise pic since the Mouse House took over distribution beginning in 2015 with Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Opening slightly under 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story, the Friday to Sunday three-day take was $81.6 million, just over my $80.3 million prediction. When counting Monday, it grew to $98 million and that managed to top my $94.7 million take. While those grosses would be pleasing for most summer titles, that’s simply not the case here.

Obsession was arguably a bigger story this weekend as it grew 39% over its first frame. This is pretty much unheard of for any picture and especially in the horror genre. The Friday to Sunday earnings of $23.9 million and $31.9 million over the four-day easily surpassed my respective projections of $17.5 million and $22.9 million and the two-week total rose to $62 million.

Michael went from to 1st to 3rd with $20.6 million (three-day) and $27.1 million (four-day), ahead of my $18.8 million and $23.9 million guesstimates. The music biopic has now amassed $321 million in five weeks.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 was fourth with $12.7 million over the traditional weekend and $16.2 million with Monday added. The comedy sequel took in more than my $9.7 million and $12.6 million estimates and it has $199 million in the bank after four weeks,.

The Sheep Detectives held impressively in fifth with $9.2 million from Friday to Sunday (I said $7 million) and $12.3 million counting Monday (I went with $8.9 million). The three-week gross is $46 million for the summer sleeper.

Scary movie Passenger managed to outdo my predictions with $8.7 million (Fri-Sun) and $10.3 million (Fri-Mon). While I went lower respectively with $6.3 million and $7.3 million, the 6th place newcomer was overshadowed by Obsession. Unlike that movie, a hefty sophomore drop is probably coming.

Mortal Kombat II was seventh with $6 million over the three-day. My guess? $6 million! Its $7.6 million four-day slightly edged my $7.2 million call and the three-week total is $74 million.

Finally, absurdist comedy I Love Boosters from Boots Riley kicked off in 8th with $3.7 million from Friday to Sunday. My guess? $3.7 million! Like Kombat, the $4.7 million four-day barely exceeded my $4.5 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 22-25 Box Office Predictions

The Mandalorian and Grogu marks the first Star Wars theatrical entry in six years and it should easily rule the Memorial Day weekend charts. We also have horror flick Passenger and Boots Riley’s absurdist comedy I Love Boosters premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

The Mandalorian and Grogu Box Office Prediction
Passenger Box Office Prediction
I Love Boosters Box Office Prediction

While Mandolarian will certainly have no trouble placing first, the opening could be rather weak by Star Wars standards. I am forecasting that the continuation of the Disney Plus series will fall under $100 million for the four-day and that would be considered an unimpressive start.

Passenger could fall victim to the buzz surrounding fellow scary movie Obsession in its sophomore outing (more on its debut below). I have it outside of the top five.

Same goes for Boosters which could be looking at eighth place in the lower to mid single digits. I’m not convinced that mostly solid reviews will cause it to exceed expectations.

As for holdovers, there could be a close race for second. Current champ Michael might be the safe bet. However, Obsession may not see much of a drop at all in weekend #2 thanks to word-of-mouth and an A- Cinemascore (very high for its genre). In fact, I have it slightly increasing.

The Devil Wears Prada 2, The Sheep Detectives, and Mortal Kombat II should be 4-6 and here’s how I see the 3-day and 4-day grosses shaking out:

1. The Mandalorian and Grogu

Predicted Gross: $80.3 million (Fri-Sun); $94.7 million (Fri-Mon)

2. Michael

Predicted Gross: $18.8 million (Fri-Sun); $23.9 million (Fri-Mon)

3. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $17.5 million (Fri-Sun); $22.9 million (Fri-Mon)

4. The Devil Wears Prada 2

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million (Fri-Sun); $12.6 million (Fri-Mon)

5. The Sheep Detectives

Predicted Gross: $7 million (Fri-Sun); $8.9 million (Fri-Mon)

6. Passenger

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (Fri-Sun); $7.3 million (Fri-Mon)

7. Mortal Kombat II

Predicted Gross: $6 million (Fri-Sun); $7.2 million (Fri-Mon)

8. I Love Boosters

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million (Fri-Sun); $4.5 million (Fri-Mon)

Box Office Results (May 15-17)

Michael made a return to the top spot in its fourth week with $26.1 million, right on target with my $25.8 million call. The King of Pop biopic has (moon)walked away with $282 million in domestic dollars thus far.

The Devil Wears Prada 2, after two weeks in first, fell to second with $17.8 million. That 57% decline is steeper than my $23 million estimate though it’s grown to $175 million total.

Obsession is the story of the weekend. Budgeted at a reported $1 million and purchased by Focus Features for approximately $15 million, it slayed in third with $17.1 million. That’s well beyond my meager $9.6 million projection as it looks to play well throughout the season.

In fourth, Mortal Kombat II plummeted 65% in weekend #2 to $13.4 million. My prediction? $13.4 million! The martial arts sequel stands at $62 million.

The Sheep Detectives was fifth with $9.5 million (I said $10.2 million) for a decent two-week tally of $29 million.

Finally, Guy Ritchie’s In the Grey starring Henry Cavill and Jake Gyllenhaal was a dud in ninth with $2.9 million. I was generous at $5.9 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 15-17 Box Office Predictions

Critically hailed horror flick Obsession and Guy Ritchie’s action thriller In the Grey hope for breakout performances as holdovers look to rule the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Obsession Box Office Prediction
In the Grey Box Office Prediction

Obsession is a genuine question mark with solid reviews on its side and a chance to exceed expectations. I’m playing it safe and putting it just under double digits and that likely would mean a fifth place showing. However, a best case scenario could be a debut in third.

I don’t see In the Grey outdoing estimates and my mid single digits projection leaves Henry Cavill and Jake Gyllenhaal’s latest in sixth.

Mother’s Day weekend saw The Devil Wears Prada 2 hold up better than I assumed (more on that below). This weekend, I think Michael has a terrific shot at jumping from third to first. The musical biopic may only ease in the low 30s while Prada should decline over 40%.

Mortal Kombat II‘s plummet should be more severe in the mid 60s while The Sheep Detectives could experience a meager dip with family audiences catching up in its sophomore frame.

Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:

1. Michael

Predicted Gross: $25.8 million

2. The Devil Wears Prada 2

Predicted Gross: $23 million

3. Mortal Kombat II

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

4. The Sheep Detectives

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

5. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

6. In the Grey

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

Box Office Results (May 8-10)

The Devil Wears Prada 2 took advantage of the Mother’s Day frame with a second weekend in 1st at $41.6 million. The sequel bested my $36 million prediction for a commendable two-week total of $143 million. It has already (not adjusted for inflation) topped the 2006 original’s $124 million domestic haul.

Mortal Kombat II kicked off at the lower end of prognoses with $38.5 million in the runner-up spot, not matching my kinder $43.1 million call. While the martial arts action sequel’s performance surpassed the $23 million that its 2021 predecessor debuted with, COVID complications and a simultaneous HBO Max release make that comparison tricky.

Michael was third in weekend #3 with $37.9 million, on target with my $37.6 million take. The record-setter for its genre grew to $241 million stateside.

The Sheep Detectives was fourth with $15 million, in line with my $14.6 million forecast. While parents and kiddos didn’t exactly (apologies) flock to it, the road ahead looks bright with encouraging word-of-mouth.

James Cameron’s concert doc Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) rounded out the top five at $7 million, not quite reaching my $8.3 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 8-10 Box Office Predictions

Video game based martial arts sequel Mortal Kombat II looks to kick off in the #1 spot while family friendly mystery The Sheep Detectives and concert pic Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

Mortal Kombat II Box Office Prediction
The Sheep Detectives Box Office Prediction
Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) Box Office Prediction

2021’s Mortal Kombat franchise reboot faced hurdles from COVID related closures, but still managed to significantly top expectations with a $21 million start. It is anticipated that the sequel could double that figure and that’s where I’m projecting it. If it underwhelms and doesn’t match my prediction, a #1 debut could be in jeopardy.

That’s because holdovers The Devil Wears Prada and Michael loom. The former performed in line with its general anticipated range (more on that below) while Michael showed sturdy legs in its sophomore outing. I do believe the former will be more front-loaded with a drop over 50% (though the Mother’s Day audience could help). If Michael falls less than 35% (definitely achievable), it could stay in the runner-up position.

The other newbies should follow. The Sheep Detectives with Hugh Jackman appears headed for a fourth place showing in the lower teens. I have the Billie Eilish concert film (directed by James Cameron!) just under double digits and rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Mortal Kombat II

Predicted Gross: $43.1 million

2. Michael

Predicted Gross: $37.6 million

3. The Devil Wears Prada 2

Predicted Gross: $36 million

4. The Sheep Detectives

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

5. Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D)

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

Box Office Results (May 1-3)

While not quite beginning in grand fashion and exceeding expectations like Michael did, The Devil Wears Prada 2 still easily ruled the charts. With Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and others reprising their roles from 20 years ago, the sequel hauled in $76.7 million. While that’s below my $86.5 million prediction, it is still a laudable figure. As mentioned above, the opening could be somewhat top heavy.

Michael showed commendable movement in second with a 44% decline at $54.4 million. That’s a tad more than my $51 million take as the record-setting biopic has earned $184 million in two weeks.

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie was third with $12.6 million, in line with my $12.1 million projection. The animated sequel crossed a milestone after five weeks with $402 million.

Project Hail Mary was fourth with $8.5 million (I said $8.2 million) for a seven-week tally of $318 million.

Haunted house horror flick Hokum, sporting fresh reviews, was fifth with $6.4 million. The Adam Scott headlined feature managed to outdo my $4.2 million forecast.

Finally, Andy Serkis’s animated rendering of Animal Farm flopped in sixth place with only $3.3 million though it did get beyond my $2.7 million estimate.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 1-3 Box Office Predictions

Two decades after the original was a blockbuster that showed staying power, The Devil Wears Prada 2 should fashion an impressive start to kick off May. We also have haunted house horror flick Hokum and Andy Serkis directed animated adaptation of Animal Farm debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

The Devil Wears Prada 2 Box Office Prediction
Hokum Box Office Prediction
Animal Farm Box Office Prediction

Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and others are back for Prada 2 in a sequel that seems to have audiences with a genuine eagerness to revisit the characters. The original opened to $27 million, but the follow-up is expected to triple those numbers. A best case scenario could be nine digits. I have it in the mid 80s as nostalgia and a high female turnout should push it to a runaway #1 debut.

Expectations are more tempered with other newbies. My mid single digits projection for the well-reviewed Hokum with Adam Scott should mean a fifth place showing.

As for Animal Farm from Angel Studios, meh reviews and a quiet marketing campaign could put this in low single digits. My $2.7 million forecast certainly leave it outside of the high five.

Besides the Prada premiere, the second major storyline is how Michael will perform in its sophomore frame after a sizzling beginning (more on that below). The musical biopic wasn’t a hit with many critics (38% on Rotten Tomatoes), but patrons are digging it as evidenced by the 97% audience score on the same site. Encouraging word-of-mouth might result in a drop in the 40% range. That’s similar to where Bohemian Rhapsody and Elvis eased in their second weekends. However, due to the sheer size of its performance, I will hedge and say a mid to high 40s drop could occur.

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary should respectively move down a slot to third and fourth and add to their considerable hauls.

Here’s how I see the top five shaking out:

1. The Devil Wears Prada 2

Predicted Gross: $86.5 million

2. Michael

Predicted Gross: $51 million

3. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Predicted Gross: $12.6 million

4. Project Hail Mary

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

5. Hokum

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (April 24-26)

Michael wanted to be startin’ with the greatest opening ever for its genre and it achieved that and then some. The look at Michael Jackson’s first two decades of massive fame stunned with $97.2 million compared to my $81 million prediction. That blows away the former musical biopic record of $60 million held by Straight Outta Compton. It will need $216 million to claim the largest domestic take for that genre held by Bohemian Rhapsody. That should happen.

After three weeks in the pole position, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie was second with $20.5 million. That’s in line with my $19.9 million take as the animated sequel grew to $385 million. A gross over $400 million is set to arrive by this weekend.

Project Hail Mary was third with $12.8 million as its 37% fall in weekend #6 was more Earth bound than previous meager declines. The sci-fi awards hopeful sits at $305 million.

Lee Cronin’s The Mummy held a bit better in frame #2 than I figured with $5.5 million compared to my $4.4 million call. The poorly received attempted franchise reboot has made only $23 million after two weeks.

The Drama rounded out the top five with $2.6 million (I said $2.8 million) for a four-week total of $44 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

April 24-26 Box Office Predictions

Michael looks to set records for its genre just as its title subject set records in the music business decades ago. Antoine Fuqua’s look at Michael Jackson’s life is the primary wide release this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Michael Box Office Prediction

As outlined in that post, Michael looks to surpass the $60 million mark that Straight Outta Compton set for best ever in the musical biopic field. I am projecting it will do so with plenty of room to spare in the low-80s. If it hits that figure, it will certainly stand a good shot at surpassing the $216 million that Bohemian Rhapsody made back in 2018. If and when it achieves a gross beyond that number, it’ll set the high mark overall domestically in the genre. There is some concern that subpar reviews might be a hindrance, but I’m still banking on a wide audience turnout.

The emergence of the King of Pop will cause The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary to drop spots after being 1-2 for the last three weekends. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy should see the biggest percentage drop of holdovers are an unimpressive start (more on that below) with The Drama rounding out the top five.

I will note that Mother Mary with Anne Hathaway could pop into the high five with a planned expansion. However, I’ve yet to see a theater count following a limited release on the coasts so I’m not placing it there.

Here’s how I envision it all shaking out:

1. Michael

Predicted Gross: $81 million

2. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Predicted Gross: $19.9 million

3. Project Hail Mary

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million

4. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

5. The Drama

Predicted Gross: $2.8 million

Box Office Results (April 17-19)

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie ruled the charts once again in its third frame with $36.4 million, in range with my $38.4 million prediction. After three weeks, the animated sequel has generated $356 million as it should blast past $400 million in short order.

Project Hail Mary was runner-up and it continued a remarkable run of meager declines. The sci-fi critical and commercial hit made $20.5 million, ahead of my $17.9 million forecast. The five-week total is rock solid $285 million.

Horror heavy franchise reboot Lee Cronin’s The Mummy stumbled in third with $13.5 million, under my $17.2 million take. With so-so reviews, scary movie fans did not turn out in the way Warner Bros. hoped for. With a C+ Cinemascore grade, look for this to wrap up its theatrical run quickly.

The Drama was fourth with $4.8 million, not matching my $6 million call. The unconventional romance is up to $39 million after three weekend.

Rom com You, Me & Tuscany fell 50% in its sophomore outing to fifth with $3.8 million (I said $4.5 million) for $14 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…