Tag: Box Office Results

October 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Horror looks to rule the charts with Jessica Chastain as the creepy Other Mommy while Aaron Sorkin’s The Social Reckoning also debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the two newcomers here:

Other Mommy Box Office Prediction
The Social Reckoning Box Office Prediction

With an effective trailer and a likely hunger for scary material as we’re into the month of October, my mid 20s projection for Mommy easily gives it the victory.

The Social Reckoning may have to settle for anywhere between third and fifth place. A sort of sequel to 2010’s acclaimed The Social Network, this updated look at Facebook/Meta isn’t carrying the type of buzz that greeted its predecessor. I have this making only a third of what Network achieved over a decade and a half ago.

As for holdovers, Verity had a fantastic opening (more on that below). The C+ Cinemascore grade is a bit troubling and a 60% sophomore dip would put it in a distant second. With my soft outlook for Reckoning, I’ll say that Resident Evil narrowly edges it out for third with Heart of the Beast rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Other Mommy

Predicted Gross: $27.2 million

2. Verity

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million

3. Resident Evil

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

4. The Social Reckoning

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. Heart of the Beast

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

Box Office Results (October 2-4)

A couple weeks back, I couldn’t have imagined not discussing where Digger would place in the top five in its sophomore frame, but here we are.

We will get to Tom Cruise’s box office disaster shortly though we’ll start with positive results. Verity, based on the Colleen Hoover novel, opened at the highest end of expectations with $32 million. The thriller starring Anne Hathaway (in her fifth 2026 flick) and Dakota Johnson blew past my $20.4 million prediction. As mentioned, it should see a large decline this weekend but this is a fine result for Amazon MGM.

Resident Evil stayed in second place with $12.6 million, in range with my $12 million projection. The video game based horror tale has taken in $125 million after three weeks.

Heart of the Beast was third with $10.8 million, on pace with my $11.2 million call. The Brad Pitt/German Shepherd survival tale is up to $38 million in two weeks.

Digger was fourth and marked Tom Cruise’s lowest opening since 2007’s Lions for Lambs (in which he was a supporting player). With mixed reviews and a C+ Cinemascore, audiences and critics were divided and the result was only $8 million compared to my $10.3 million forecast. Warner Bros as we know it (after Paramount’s acquisition) goes out with a whimper as this will be a significant money loser for the studio.

Primetime rounded out the top five and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. Also with $8 million, the two-week tally is $34 million.

Finally, last week’s #1 Avengers: Endgame Encore fell a lot further than I figured in seventh with $4.4 million. That’s an 83% decline and I was far more generous at $10 million. Don’t feel bad for the MCU, however, as its overall gross since 2019 ballooned to $894 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

October 2-4 Box Office Predictions

For the first time in nearly a decade, Tom Cruise headlines a picture that isn’t an action sequel via Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu’s satire Digger. Cruise and company will need to fend off a challenge from Verity, a psychological thriller based on Colleen Hoover’s novel starring the inescapable Anne Hathaway and Dakota Johnson. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Digger Box Office Prediction
Verity Box Office Prediction

Truth be told, I think Ms. Hathaway easily holds the advantage. Verity should be able to bring in a decent (especially female) crowd familiar with the source material. Mid teens could be the floor though I have this in the mid 20s for a first place showing.

I would’ve pegged Digger for a similar start a couple of weeks back. However, reviews are subpar and this is not your typical Cruise content that audiences have grown accustomed to recently. My projection has steadily declined and my barely double digits forecast could put it anywhere from second place to fifth. That would be a disastrous kickoff for the satire with a $125 million budget.

Holdovers Avengers Endgame: Encore, Resident Evil, and Heart of the Beast may all be in the same range. I have #s 2-5 separated by a mere $2 million and here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Verity

Predicted Gross: $20.4 million

2. Resident Evil

Predicted Gross: $12 million

3. Heart of the Beast

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

4. Digger

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

5. Avengers Endgame: Encore

Predicted Gross: $10 million

Box Office Results (September 25-27)

Not long after Spider-Man relinquished the top spot, the MCU returned to #1 with the re-release (with some extra footage) of 2019’s Avengers: Endgame Encore. Meant to drum up anticipation for December’s Avengers: Doomsday, the epic comic book experience accomplished its mission and added $26.1 million to its coffers. That’s beyond my $22.6 million take as its domestic total ballooned to $884 million.

Resident Evil, after a terrific debut, slid to second with an understandable 62% dip to $23 million. I was on target with a $24 million prediction as the franchise reboot passed the century mark after ten days with $103 million.

Three newcomers filled with the rest of the top five with Brad Pitt’s Heart of the Beast in third. With a German Shepherd as his costar, the survival drama earned $20 million, surpassing my $16.8 million call. That gross would be more notable if not for its $80M+ budget, but it’s still at the high end of its anticipated range.

Primetime starring Robert Pattinson rode a wave of favorable buzz to $19.1 million in fourth compared to my $14.5 million prediction. Lots of audience members chose to have a seat for the A24 title which has a lowly $15 million price tag.

The news was not as positive for DreamWorks Animation’s Forgotten Island. Despite fresh critical reaction, the family friendly tale was fifth with $13 million (I went higher at $17.2 million). It’ll hope for families to catch up in subsequent weekends though it’s undoubtedly a flat result.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

September 25-27 Box Office Predictions

As September closes out, the top 5 should consist of 80% fresh product with four titles primed to gross $10 million and higher. However, current champ Resident Evil could maintain first position. We have the re-release of the MCU’s Avengers: Endgame Encore, DreamWorks Animation’s Forgotten Island, Brad Pitt and a German Shepherd in the survival tale Heart of the Beast, and Robert Pattinson headlining the biographical thriller Primetime. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

Avengers: Endgame Encore Box Office Prediction
Forgotten Island Box Office Prediction
Heart of the Beast Box Office Prediction
Primetime Box Office Prediction

Let’s start with a caveat – this is an unpredictable frame. I believe all the newcomers have a shot at outperforming my forecasts. Avengers and Island, in particular, could exceed expectations and challenge for the top spot. My hunch is that, even with a 60% drop (fine for its genre), Resident Evil will maintain its #1 bragging rights with a mid-20s gross.

If I get the order of 2-5 right, I’ll be happy with myself. For the incoming quartet, I have all placing between $10-$20 million. With the advantage of following Spider-Man: Brand New Day and meant to drum up anticipation for December’s Avengers: Doomsday, Disney/Marvel’s Endgame return to theaters could approach the $20 million figure and I have it achieving runner-up status.

With solid reviews, Forgotten Island could be right behind in third or be second. The fact that it’s not based on known IP could be a hurdle for kiddos and parents to RSVP.

Pitt’s Beast, his first pic since last summer’s blockbuster F1, is also drawing decent critical reaction. Mid to high teens is certainly doable for a fourth place finish.

Primetime is perhaps the biggest unknown. With Pattinson as To Catch a Predator host Chris Hansen, the trailer is buzzy as was reaction at the Venice Film Festival earlier this month. This might have more audience members seated than I’m estimating but my prognosis in the low teens has it rounding out the top five. I also wouldn’t be shocked if it fell between $8-13 million or even approached $20 million.

Here’s how I have this fascinating weekend shaking out:

1. Resident Evil

Predicted Gross: $24 million

2. Avengers: Endgame Encore

Predicted Gross: $22.6 million

3. Forgotten Island

Predicted Gross: $17.2 million

4. Heart of the Beast

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million

5. Primetime

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million

Box Office Results (September 18-20)

Horror enthusiasts and gamers came out in droves for Zach Cregger’s reboot of the Resident Evil franchise. The well-reviewed eighth overall entry in the series boasted a $60.1 million premiere, managing to top my $55.8 million prediction. That more than doubles the previous best of the bunch – 2010’s Resident Evil: Afterlife at $26 million and sets a personal best for the Weapons filmmaker.

Practical Magic 2 was second with a 60% fall in frame #2 as the witchy sequel made $12.1 million, in line with my $12.4 million take. Falling on the low end of its range, the two-week total is $50 million.

Summer holdovers populated slots 3-5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day was third with $6.4 million compared to my $4.7 million call. Earlier in the week, Day surpassed 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens to become the largest domestic grosser of all time at $944 million after eight weeks.

The Odyssey was fourth with $4.9 million (I said $4.6 million) as Christopher Nolan’s epic brought its tally to $609 million in ten weeks.

Finally, Coyote vs. Acme was fifth with $4.4 million, ahead of my $3.5 million projection for $54 million in four weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

September 11-13 Box Office Predictions

Spidey’s reign atop the box office charts looks to end this weekend with the release of Practical Magic 2. We also have the South Korean sci-fi action epic Hope and period action drama The Uprising out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Practical Magic 2 Box Office Prediction
Hope Box Office Prediction
The Uprising Box Office Prediction

Reuniting Sandra Bullock and Nicole Kidman 26 years after their witchy original, Practical Magic 2 has a nostalgia factor and an appeal to a female audience that could mean an impressive start. My high 40s projection gives it (unadjusted for inflation) more in its first frame than the 1998 original made in its entire domestic run.

Hope is a wild card as the South Korean release boasts the widest opening from its country since 2019’s Parasite. The Wednesday bow has me thinking it’ll manage a fifth place start over the traditional weekend with nearly $10 million over the five-day.

My hunch is that The Uprising from Paul Greengrass and starring Andrew Garfield will struggle. Out on a smallish 1500 reported screens, my mid single digits estimate should mean a premiere just outside the top five.

As for holdovers, Spider-Man: Brand New Day may still manage double digits as it finally moves to the runner-up spot while The Odyssey and Coyote vs. Acme should be third and fourth. Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Practical Magic 2

Predicted Gross: $43.5 million

2. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

3. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

4. Coyote vs. Acme

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

5. Hope

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $9.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

6. The Uprising

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (September 4-7)

Capping off a fruitful summer, the Labor Day weekend was a winner for the MCU as Spider-Man: Brand New Day put up $23.7 million from Friday to Monday. That’s right on pace with my $23 million prediction with the juggernaut hitting $923 million after six weeks. It is now just $13 million away from the all-time domestic record of $936 million held by Star Wars: The Force Awakens. That record looks to fall in the coming days.

The Odyssey was once again #2 with $17.2 million, eclipsing my $14.8 million projection. Christopher Nolan’s all-time largest earner grew to $588 million after eight weeks.

Coyote vs. Acme held up impressively in third for its sophomore outing with $16.1 million compared to my $13.2 million call. The tally is $38 million for the live-action/animated hybrid that nearly didn’t see the light of day.

The holiday weekend’s top grossing newcomer was By Any Means with Mark Wahlberg. The crime thriller was fourth with $9.2 million, a bit ahead of my $7.8 million forecast.

Disney/Pixar’s 20th anniversary re-release of Cars rounded out the top five with $8 million and I incorrectly had it outside of the top half of the chart.

Insidious: Out of the Further placed sixth and also took in $8 million (I said $7.5 million). The horror sequel has scared up $55 million in three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

September 4-7 Box Office Predictions

There are multiple new releases making their way to multiplexes over the Labor Day frame, but I only have one managing a top five showing. That would be 1960s set crime thriller By Any Means with Mark Wahlberg and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II as it attempts double digits over the holiday weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

By Any Means Box Office Prediction

As summer turns into fall on the cinematic calendar, the MCU should be perched atop the charts for a sixth weekend in a row courtesy of Spider-Man: Brand New Day. A note that over this particular weekend, holdovers often experience minimal percentage declines or even a slight increase as moviegoers catch up on recent offerings. From Friday to Monday, I have Spidey essentially doing what it did in its fifth outing.

The Odyssey could return to second place from third while Coyote vs. Acme drops a spot after a notable premiere (more on that below). The latter’s second week drop is a head scratcher and it could be more front-loaded that I’m assuming. On the flip side, families could show up in solid numbers since it appears to have fresh word-of-mouth with an A Cinemascore.

Means may flirt with $10M+ in a best case scenario though I’ve got falling under for a fourth place start and Insidious: Out of the Further rounding out the top five.

As for other fresh product, I’m skeptical that horror offering Onslaught from Adam Wingard, survival flick sequel Fall 2: Deadpoint (out Wednesday), or Pixar’s 20th anniversary re-issue of Cars populate the top half of the top ten so no individual posts for that trio.

And with that, here’s how I have the top 5 shaking out and keep in mind that these are Friday through Monday guesstimates:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $23 million

2. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million

3. Coyote vs. Acme

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. By Any Means

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

5. Insidious: Out of the Further

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

Box Office Results (August 28-30)

As anticipated, Spider-Man: Brand New Day had no trouble swinging to a fifth victory with $22.5 million, in line with my $23.2 million call. With $891 million in its coffers, Day looks to exceed domestic record holder Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936 million) in short order.

After Warner Bros jettisoned it as a tax write-off in 2023, Ketchup Entertainment squeezed some decent figures out of the live-action/animated hybrid Coyote vs. Acme. With $15.9 million, it was runner-up and surpassed my $13.8 million projection. Considering it was never going to see the light of day if WB had their way, it’s a better than expected result.

The Odyssey was third after four weeks in second position with $14.3 million, just under my $15.6 million call for a seven-week take of $563 million.

Insidious: Out of the Further dropped 59% in its sophomore weekend with $10.2 million compared to my $9.4 million take. The sixth feature in the horror franchise is at $43 million total.

With so-so reviews and muted WOM, Ridley Scott’s The Dog Stars starring Jacob Elordi, Josh Brolin, and Margaret Qualley failed to find an audience in fifth with $7.7 million (I said $8.3 million).

Finally, Roadside Attractions had a laudable showing with the low-budget Buddy in sixth. I didn’t do a prediction write-up for it, but the satirical horror tale made $5.5 million. The per theater average nearly equaled that of Acme.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 28-30 Box Office Predictions

August at the box office should close out like July did with Spider-Man: Brand New Day ruling the charts. Coyote vs. Acme, the live-action/animated hybrid with a bumpy journey to theaters and Ridley Scott’s post-apocalyptic drama The Dog Stars are the fresh challengers to the throne and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Coyote vs. Acme Box Office Prediction
The Dog Stars Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros axed Coyote as a tax write-off as the Looney Tunes tale (shot in 2022) finally was picked up by Ketchup Entertainment. They hope to squeeze an opening weekend in the high teens though my low teens projection could mean third place.

That’s because the MCU’s Spidey adventure should see a fifth weekend in 1st with a drop in the low to mid 40s. The Odyssey could rise from third to second as Insidious: Out of the Further could see a sophomore frame plummet in the 60% range.

I’m putting Further in a close race with The Dog Stars for fourth place as I don’t see the latter finding much of an audience.

Here’s how I see the top five shaking out:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $23.2 million

2. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $15.6 million

3. Coyote vs. Acme

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

4. Insidious: Out of the Further

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

5. The Dog Stars

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

Box Office Results (August 21-23)

The sixth entry of the Insidious horror franchise was no match for Tom Holland as Brand New Day spent a fourth weekend as the champ. Spidey took in $39 million, just ahead of my $38 million prediction for $854 million total. This week it will become the second highest grossing domestic feature in history (unadjusted for inflation) behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936 million).

Insidious: Out of the Further settled for second with $25.1 million, under my $29.7 million call. While its numbers are just fine considering the reported $18 million budget, it did not match the $33 million that predecessor The Red Door opened to in 2023.

The Odyssey was third with $19.7 million compared to my $17.1 million take as the epic adventure has amassed $539 million in six weeks. It has now surpassed The Dark Knight ($534 million) to become Christopher Nolan’s largest stateside earner.

PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie was fourth in weekend #2 with $9.1 million, in line with my $9.6 million forecast. The animated sequel stands at $35 million.

The End of Oak Street, another dino movie, rounded out the top five with $8.7 million (I said $8.2 million) for $37 million after two weeks.

Jason Statham’s Mutiny was sixth with $7.7 million as the star’s latest action thriller premiered close to my $7.7 million projection.

Tony, focused on a formative summer in the life of Anthony Bourdain, expanded nationwide and was seventh with $5 million compared to my $6 million prediction. The overall tally is $6.6 million.

Finally, comedy Spa Weekend fizzled in ninth with $3 million though that is ahead of my $2.3 million prognosis.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 21-23 Box Office Predictions

For the first time in several weeks, we could have a competition for the #1 spot with Insidious: Out of the Further potentially challenging Spider-Man: Brand New Day‘s fourth frame at the box office. We also have Mutiny with Jason Statham hoping to land in the top five. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Insidious: Out of the Further Box Office Prediction
Mutiny Box Office Prediction

The sixth entry in a 13-year-old steady horror franchise, Further could scare up the mid 30s or higher in a best case scenario. If so, Spidey could be prevented from a fourth weekend atop the charts. Yet my near $30 million projection should put it in the runner-spot assuming Tom Holland’s hero sees a decline in the mid 40s to 50% range.

Mutiny could make $10 million or so if it hits the top end of its range, but my estimate would put it in sixth. I didn’t do individual posts predicting the opening grosses for Spa Weekend (a comedy with Leslie Mann and Isla Fisher) or the nationwide expansion of Anthony Bourdain early years biopic Tony. I don’t figure either will place higher than 6th. I’ll say $6 million for Tony and just $2.3 million for Spa.

The Odyssey should drop to 3rd after three weeks in 2nd in the high teens with PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie and dino movie The End of Oak Street in 4th and 5th. As for the latter, it may suffer a significant decline considering the meh B Cinemascore grade.

Here’s how I have the top 6 shaking out:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $38 million

2. Insidious: Out of the Further

Predicted Gross: $29.7 million

3. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million

4. PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

5. The End of Oak Street

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

6. Mutiny

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

Box Office Results (August 14-16)

Spider-Man: Brand New Day achieved the second best third outing at domestic multiplexes ever with $70.7 million, swinging beyond my $60.2 million call. That’s well behind the $90 million third weekend for Star Wars: The Force Awakens and just in front of Avatar‘s $68 million. The MCU’s return to dominance stands at $786 million stateside thus far.

The Odyssey, despite serious competition, held in second with $23.6 million and ahead of my $21 million prediction. The epic tale grew to $505 million after five weeks.

David Robert Mitchell’s The End of Oak Street with Anne Hathaway and lots of CG prehistoric creatures had a softish landing in third with $21 million, easily under my $31.1 million take. As mentioned, so-so word-of-mouth might cause faster extinction in theaters.

PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie was fourth with $20.2 million, a tad below predecessor The Mighty Movie though ahead of my $18.7 million projection.

Katseye: Wild Hearts was fifth with $3.9 million. It admittedly was not on my radar and I didn’t do a prediction post for the documentary about the L.A. based pop group.

Finally, The Brink of War from Angel Studios faltered in seventh with $2.6 million (I said $4.5 million). Older audiences didn’t turn up for the drama about Reagan and Gorbachev’s 1986 summit in Iceland.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 14-16 Box Office Predictions

While Spider-Man: Brand New Day should face no trouble spinning a third weekend atop the charts, two dinosaur centered features will attempt to make their mark at multiplexes. We have 1980s set The End of Oak Street with Anne Hathaway and Ewan McGregor and animated three-quel PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie debuting. They premiere alongside The Brink of War from Angel Studios (recounting the Reagan/Gorbachev 1986 Icelandic summit) and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

The End of Oak Street Box Office Prediction
PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie Box Office Prediction
The Brink of War Box Office Prediction

Buzz appears to picking up for Oak Street, the sci-fi adventure from acclaimed filmmaker David Robert Mitchell. While I wouldn’t discount an opening approaching $40 million in a best case scenario, the floor could be in the low 20s. My low 30s projection gives it a second place showing.

The third pic based on the Canadian kids TV series, I foresee PAW Patrol coming in a bit behind 2023 predecessor PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie. It could be in third place, but I’ve got it in fourth slightly behind the fifth outing for The Odyssey.

The Brink of War should land the five spot. The political drama may get beyond my mid single digits estimate, but I’ll play it safe.

As mentioned, Spidey is poised to make it three in a row. A percentage decline in the high 50s would mean a gross just north of $60 million and here’s how I have it all shaking out:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $60.2 million

2. The End of Oak Street

Predicted Gross $31.1 million

3. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $21 million

4. PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million

5. The Brink of War

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

Box Office Results (August 7-9)

Two new comedies struggled while Peter Parker and Odysseus continued to rule. Spider-Man: Brand New Day, after scoring the greatest domestic opening haul in box office history, had the third strongest sophomore weekend ever behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($149 million) and Avengers: Endgame ($147 million). The MCU saga took in $144.2 million. While that’s below my generous $153 million take, the ten-day total is a whopping $654 million.

The Odyssey held runner-up status once again with $31.7 million, on target with my $31.6 million call. The future awards player sits at $461 million after four weeks.

Rom com One Night Only starring Monica Barbaro and Callum Turner was third at the low end of expectations with $5.5 million. I thought it would nab $7.8 million.

Toy Story 5 was fourth with $4.2 million (I said $4.9 million) as the Pixar sequel brought its eight-week earnings to $470 million.

Finally, Super Troopers 3 fell way behind its 2018 predecessor in fifth. While part 2 made off with $15 million out of the gate, part 3 was good for only $4 million. I went with $7.6 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 7-9 Box Office Predictions

A history making weekend just occurred at the box office with Spider-Man: Brand New Day and The Odyssey breaking records. The blockbuster duo should easily rule the charts once again but we do have newcomers jockeying for third place. The Broken Lizard comedy gang returns in Super Troopers 3 while Monica Barbaro and Callum Turner headline the rom com One Night Only. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

One Night Only Box Office Prediction
Super Troopers 3 Box Office Prediction

We’ll get to the newbies in a minute, but let’s talk Spidey. Brand New Day, the 38th overall MCU pic and 4th franchise effort with Tom Holland in the title role, swung the best opening weekend ever domestically (more on that below). Edging out seven-year record holder Avengers: Endgame by $3 million, Day could be in contention for the highest second frame of all time. In order to do so, it would need to top the $149 million that Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned in 2015 (Endgame did $147 million in its sophomore outing). I’m projecting it’ll get there with a gross just north of $150 million.

Christopher Nolan’s epic The Odyssey should continue its fantastic run with a second place finish in the $30-35 million range.

Third place is more of a question mark and I’m predicting a photo finish between One Night and Troopers. I don’t see either of them greatly exceeding expectations. My $7-8 million take on both gives Night minor bragging rights in third.

Toy Story 5 should place fifth and here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $153 million

2. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $31.6 million

3. One Night Only

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

4. Super Troopers 3

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (July 31-August 2)

Spider-Man: Brand New Day astonished prognosticators and pummeled my prediction by nearly $100 million (!) as the MCU sequel swung $360 million. That’s way beyond my $268 million take and ahead of Endgame‘s $357 million record. Audience anticipation was clearly sky high after 2021 predecessor No Way Home as this looks to dominate August at multiplexes.

The Odyssey landed another $51 million in its third weekend to bring its gargantuan total to $395 million. That added coin, coupled with Spider-Man, contributed to the best box office weekend in history (unadjusted for inflation). My projection was slightly lower at $48.5 million.

Toy Story 5 was third in its seventh go-round with $6.7 million, a tad more than my $6.1 million call. The Pixar sequel has hauled in $462 million thus far.

Minions & Monsters was fourth with $6 million compared to my $5.6 million forecast for a five-week tally of $168 million.

Disney’s Moana rounded out the top five with $5.6 million (I said $5.7 million) for $115 million after four weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 31-August 2 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (07/29): Spidey prediction was raised from $251 million to $268 million. That’s means I’m projecting it gets the #2 all-time domestic debut.

After a year away from multiplexes, the Marvel Cinematic Universe swings back into theaters with Spider-Man: Brand New Day. The fourth entry in Tom Holland’s web slinger franchise seeks and is highly likely to achieve 2026’s largest domestic debut. My detailed prediction post for it can be accessed here:

Spider-Man: Brand New Day Box Office Prediction

The year’s biggest stateside premiere belongs to Toy Story 5 at $159 million and Spidey should have no trouble toppling that record. A better question is where it’ll rank all-time in the U.S. and Canada. Projections are rising among some prognosticators. While the $357 million hauled in by Avengers: Endgame appears safe, some believe #2 could be in danger. That’s held by Brand predecessor Spider-Man: No Way Home at $260 million. My number puts it in fourth (and fourth MCU overall) just behind Avengers: Infinity War ($257 million) and ahead of Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($247 million).

After two impressive stints in first, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will fall to second. While its sophomore weekend hold was dynamite (more on that below), I’ll project a mid-40s decline this time around due to Mr. Holland’s other adventure.

The rest of top six should be a close race between family fare Toy Story 5, Moana, and Minions & Monsters. Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $268 million

2. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $48.5 million

3. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

4. Moana

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

5. Minions & Monsters

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

Box Office Results (July 24-26)

The Odyssey continued its fabulous box office journey with a scant 27% ease in weekend #2. Adding $90 million to its coffers, the eventual Oscar contender has amassed $289 million as it breezed past my $74.6 million prediction. After a massive start, word-of-mouth is clearly assisting Nolan’s latest.

Moana was second with $10.6 million, in range with my $10.2 million estimate. The live-action version of Disney’s 2016 animated feature passed nine digits with $102 million after three weeks. There’s no doubt the studio was hoping for more at this juncture.

Hadestown: The Musical, a stage recording of the Broadway smash, kicked off with $10.2 million in third and ahead of my $8.5 million call. Initially set for a five-day engagement in theaters, demand has changed the release plan.

Toy Story 5 was fourth with $10.1 million (I said $9.7 million) for a six-week tally of $448 million. Animated competition Minions & Monsters rounded out the top five with $9.7 million compared to my $9 million take. In four weeks, it has taken in $155 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…