Tag Archives: Box Office Results

Box Office Predictions: October 26-28

Jamie Lee Curtis and her long running nemesis Michael Myers should have no trouble topping the box office charts once again as a trio of newcomers enter the marketplace. They are the Gerard Butler action thriller Hunter Killer, Pure Flix drama Indivisible, and Rowan Atkinson comedy sequel Johnny English Strikes Again. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/16/hunter-killer-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/22/indivisible-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/17/johnny-english-strikes-again-box-office-prediction/

Let’s deal with the low hanging fruit first. I don’t expect Indivisible or English to come anywhere near the top 5 with respective estimates of $1.7 million and $1.3 million.

We also have Jonah Hill’s directorial debut Mid90s expanding into wide release after a four screen engagement this past weekend. A theater count will be key here, but if it gets 1000 screens I’ll say it hits around $3.6 million (this could rise or fall depending on volume).

Hunter Killer is a trickier proposition. It doesn’t seem to be generating much buzz, but recent Butler pics such as Geostorm and Den of Thieves have both managed to go slightly above projections. It’s tempting to say Killer won’t do double digits, but I’m putting it just over that for what would be a fourth place showing (though it could go higher).

Speaking of killers, Michael Myers and his Halloween sequel slashed its way to the second largest October opening of all time (behind Venom) and second highest horror premiere ever (behind It). I’ll say it dips around 53% for the weekend.

A Star Is Born and Venom seem poised to keep their 2-3 positions with Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween rounding out the top five.

And with that, the top 5 estimates for the weekend ahead:

1. Halloween

Predicted Gross: $35.4 million

2. A Star Is Born

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million

3. Venom

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million

4. Hunter Killer

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

5. Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

Box Office Results (October 19-21)

As mentioned, Halloween achieved near record-setting status this weekend with a fantastic $76.2 million start, right in line with my $75.4 million prediction. It easily soared above the previous franchise record with $50 million to spare. That mark was held by Rob Zombie’s 2007 remake at $26 million.

A Star Is Born kept the runner-up spot for the third weekend with $19 million (I said $19.2 million) to bring its earnings to $126 million.

After two weeks on top, Venom dipped to third place with $18 million (I was a tad lower at $16.9 million) for a three-week tally of $171 million.

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween was fourth with $9.7 million (I said $9.4 million) for a two-week gross of $28 million.

First Man continued its disappointing returns in fifth with $8.3 million – under my $10 million take. In two weeks, it’s earned an unimpressive $29 million.

Critically acclaimed The Hate U Give expanded wide with a solid $7.6 million for sixth place, getting past my $6.7 million estimate.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: October 19-21

Halloween looks to dominate the box office and slash all competition with a potentially record-setting opening. In order to do so, it would need to top the $80 million earned just days ago by Venom when it smashed the all-time October opening of all time. You can peruse my detailed prediction post in it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/09/halloween-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I’ve got earning just north of $75 million. That puts it short of Venom, but easily at #2 as far as all-time debuts for the month (it only needs top the $55 million that Gravity took in five years ago). That shouldn’t be a problem at all.

While this weekend’s #1 pic is not in question, the holdover battle should be interesting as well. The Michael Myers appearance will likely made Venom lose at least half its audience and that could cause it to drop to third place after two weeks in first place. That means A Star Is Born should hold steady in second.

First Man had a rather lackluster debut (more on that below) and it hopes to experience a smallish decline in the low to mid 30s. If so, it should rank fourth with Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween not far behind.

The Hate U Give expands to approximately 2300 theaters after it’s performed well in limited fashion. I’ll put its gross at $6.7 million and that would leave it outside the top 5.

Here’s the top 5 predictions for the scary weekend ahead:

1. Halloween

Predicted Gross: $75.4 million

2. A Star Is Born

Predicted Gross: $19.2 million

3. Venom

Predicted Gross: $16.9 million

4. First Man

Predicted Gross: $10 million

5. Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

Box Office Results (October 12-14)

Venom and A Star Is Born continued to rule the charts while all newcomers came in with rather lackluster returns. Marvel’s Venom repeated in first with $35 million in its second weekend, managing to top my $31.2 million estimate. The comic book based hit has amassed $142 million thus far.

A Star Is Born, as expected, held up well in its sophomore frame with $28.4 million (right in line with my $28.3 million projection). It’s about to join the century club after two weeks with $94 million currently.

The biggest surprise of the weekend was First Man, which failed to achieve liftoff in third with a disappointing $16 million, well below my $23.5 million take. Damien Chazelle’s Oscar hopeful with Ryan Gosling will hope for smallish declines, but this is unquestionably a letdown.

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween couldn’t match its predecessor’s mid 20s start. It debuted in fourth with a mediocre $15.8 million compared to my $17.3 million prediction.

Smallfoot rounded out the top five with $9 million (I said $8.9 million) to bring its tally to $57 million.

Finally, Bad Times at the El Royale failed to generate many check-ins as it opened in seventh place with $7.1 million, a tad under my $8 million estimate.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

Box Office Predictions: October 12-14

A trio of newcomers open this weekend and face the considerable challenge of dislodging Venom and A Star Is Born from the top two spots. They are Damien Chazelle’s man on the moon tale First Man starring Ryan Gosling, family friendly sequel Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween, and Drew Goddard’s pulpy thriller Bad Times at the El Royale. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/02/first-man-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/03/goosebumps-2-haunted-halloween/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/03/bad-times-at-the-el-royale-box-office-prediction/

My mid 20s estimate for First Man will likely put it in third place, unless the second helping of Goosebumps manages to exceed expectations. If not, that newbie should place fourth with mid to high teens.

I’m not expecting much from the El Royale, despite mostly positive reviews. I believe it may only manage sixth place behind the third weekend of Smallfoot.

As for #1, that could get interesting. Venom easily scored the best October debut of all time (more on that below) while A Star Is Born met expectations. The second weekend drop for them could be quite different. While Venom could dip 60% or more, Star could see a fall in the smaller range of 30-35%. Assuming First Man doesn’t surpass projections, this could set up a close battle for first place among the returnees.

And with that, a top 6 take on the weekend ahead:

1. Venom

Predicted Gross: $31.2 million

2. A Star Is Born

Predicted Gross: $28.3 million

3. First Man

Predicted Gross: $23.5 million

4. Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween

Predicted Gross: $17.3 million

5. Smallfoot

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

6. Bad Times at the El Royale

Predicted Gross: $8 million

Box Office Results (October 57)

Despite overwhelmingly negative reviews, comic book pic Venom with Tom Hardy obliterated the October opening record with $80.2 million. That gross exceeds the previous holder (Gravity) by nearly $25 million. It easily blew away my $62.5 million prediction. Even though a healthy drop seems probable this weekend, Sony has to be over the moon with this performance in a feature that is expected to start a franchise.

Bradley Cooper/Lady Gaga’s Oscar contender A Star Is Born got off to a rousing beginning in second with $42.9 million. While this is a bit under my $48.6 million estimate, it’s already made back its budget and looks to leg out solidly over the next several weeks. Counting its Tuesday and Wednesday special previews, it’s made $44.2 million.

Smallfoot was third in weekend #2 with $14.4 million. I was close at $13.6 million. The animated feature has grossed $42 million overall.

Night School fell from first to fourth with $12.5 million (I said $12.7 million) for a two-week total of $46 million.

The House with a Clock in Its Walls rounded out the top five with $7.3 million, on pace with my $7 million forecast. It’s earned $55 million thus far.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: October 5-7

The October box office gets underway this weekend with a strong likelihood that the month’s record will be broken as the comic book adaptation Venom and Bradley Cooper/Lady Gaga Oscar hopeful and musical drama A Star Is Born open. You can peruse my individual detailed prediction posts on them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/25/venom-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/25/a-star-is-born-box-office-prediction/

Both are expected to post impressive debuts. The current October record holder is from five years ago when Gravity made $55.7 million out of the gate. Venom is tracking to open between $60-$70 million. I believe it will match expectations and premiere on the lower end of that range, taking the all-time monthly debut with it.

While Venom could always fail to meet projections, I believe the real wild card here is A Star Is Born. Ever since it screened on the film festival circuit, praise and awards buzz has been loud for Bradley Cooper’s directorial debut and third remake of a tale that began in the 1930s. My initial estimate last week was $37.6 million and it has now risen to $48.6 million. It’s not out of the question that the projection could continue to rise during the week.

The two newcomers will easily take the top spots. As for holdovers, Smallfoot seems destined to experience a smaller drop than current champ Night School. I expect them to place 3rd and 4th, respectively, with The House with a Clock in Its Walls rounding out the top five.

And with that, my top five take on the big record-breaking weekend ahead:

1. Venom

Predicted Gross: $62.5 million

2. A Star Is Born

Predicted Gross: $48.6 million

3. Smallfoot

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

4. Night School

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

5. The House with a Clock in Its Walls

Predicted Gross: $7 million

Box Office Results (September 28-30)

As expected, the Kevin Hart/Tiffany Haddish comedy Night School opened in first place with $27.2 million, a bit under my $31.6 million prediction. While not reaching the heights of some other Hart laughers, it’s still a solid start. I do expect a fairly large drop this weekend.

Warner Bros animated Smallfoot premiered in line with expectations at $23 million. My prediction? $23 million! I foresee a second weekend drop around 35-40 percent.

The House with a Clock in Its Walls dropped to third with $12.6 million, falling further than my second weekend estimate of $15.3 million. It’s made $44 million thus far.

A Simple Favor was fourth with $6.5 million (I said $7 million) for a three-week tally of $43 million.

The Nun rounded out the top five with $5.4 million (I said $5.5 million) for an overall gross of $109 million.

Halloween themed horror pic Hell Fest yielded unimpressive results in sixth place with $5.1 million, in line with my $5.6 million projection.

Finally, the Pure Flix version of Little Women was a total bust this weekend with just $705,000 for 16th place. I was more generous at $1.1 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: September 28-30

**Blogger’s Note (09/27/18): My estimates for Night School and Smallfoot has risen slightly to $31.6 million and $23 million respectively.

It could be a battle for the #1 spot at the box office as September closes with the Kevin Hart/Tiffany Haddish comedy Night School and the animated Warner Bros family pic Smallfoot debuting. We also have the Halloween theme park set horror flick Hell Fest opening. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on the trio here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/18/night-school-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/18/smallfoot-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/20/hell-fest-box-office-prediction/

Before we get to the heavy hitters, the Pure Flix version of Little Women is also out Friday on a low 600 or so screens. I didn’t do a separate post for it and I’m not expecting much out of it. I’ll put its premiere at just $1.1 million.

Kevin Hart has shown his potency at the box office repeatedly with several openings north of $30 million. I don’t have Night School reaching quite that high, but my mid to late 20s estimate is enough to project it will top the lower to mid 20s gross of Smallfoot. 

Competition for Smallfoot will include the second weekend of The House with a Clock in Its Walls, which performed on the higher end of expectations out of the gate. It should drop to third place with A Simple Favor in fourth.

The five-spot is where I expect Hell Fest to compete. Horror movies always have the capacity to outdo expectations, but I’m not seeing much fanfare for this one. My mid single digits prediction could put it in range with the fourth weekend of The Nun.

And with that, a top 6 take on the weekend ahead:

1. Night School

Predicted Gross: $31.6 million

2. Smallfoot

Predicted Gross: $23 million

3. The House with a Clock in Its Walls

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million

4. A Simple Favor

Predicted Gross: $7 million

5. Hell Fest

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

6. The Nun

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (September 21-23)

As anticipated, The House with a Clock in Its Walls topped the charts with a solid $26.6 million (ahead of my $23.2 million take). The Jack Black family pic, as mentioned, hit the better end of estimates. Considering its reported $40 million budget, this should be a nice hit for Universal.

A Simple Favor elevated from third place to second place in its sophomore weekend with $10.2 million, in line with my $10.6 million projection. Its total stands at $32 million.

The Nun crossed the $100 million mark placing third with $9.9 million (ahead of my $8.4 million estimate). Only Annabelle of the Conjuring Cinematic Universe didn’t manage to join the century club and The Nun appears poised to be the franchise’s second largest earner behind The Conjuring.

The Predator dipped mightily in weekend #2 to fourth place with a 63% fall and $9.1 million (I said $10 million) for $40 million overall.

Crazy Rich Asians was fifth with $6.3 million (I went with $5.9 million) for $159 million overall.

The newcomers besides Clock all failed to connect with moviegoers. Michael Moore’s doc (despite significant publicity) was a flop. While Fahrenheit 9/11 took in nearly $24 million in its first weekend in the summer of 2004, 11/9 managed a paltry $3 million for 8th place. I predicted $5 million.

Life Itself couldn’t overcome overwhelmingly negative reviews and the drama from “This Is Us” creator Dan Fogelman was 11th with a putrid $2.1 million. I was a bit higher at $3.8 million.

I didn’t make a prediction on the blog for Assassination Nation (though I said $1.2 million on Fantasy Movie League), but it was another bad opening in 15th place with $1 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: September 21-23

The family fantasy film The House with a Clock in Its Walls looks to get its hands on the #1 spot at the box office this weekend as it opens alongside the Michael Moore political doc Fahrenheit 11/9 and ensemble drama Life Itself. If you missed my detailed prediction posts on that trio, you can find them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/11/the-house-with-a-clock-in-its-walls-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/15/fahrenheit-11-9-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/15/life-itself-box-office-prediction/

My low to mid 20s forecast for Clock should be more than enough for it to top the charts. The rest of the top 5 could be a bit more interesting. The Predator had a so-so debut and I look for it to experience a pretty hefty drop. Same goes for The Nun in its third weekend. A Simple Favor, on the other hand, could experience a solid hold in its sophomore frame.

As for the newcomers, my measly $3.8 million projection for Life Itself leaves it outside the top 5 while Fahrenheit ($5 million estimate) could battle for Crazy Rich Asians for that five-spot. And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:

1. The House with a Clock In Its Walls

Predicted Gross: $23.2 million

2. A Simple Favor 

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

3. The Predator

Predicted Gross: $10 million

4. The Nun

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

5. Crazy Rich Asians

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

Box Office Results (September 14-16)

The Predator opening in first place was never really in doubt, but its $24.6 million debut didn’t impress much. It came in a bit under my $27.4 million estimate. Mostly negative reviews didn’t help and I look for this to experience a decline of over 50% this coming weekend.

After posting a franchise best haul for the Conjuring Cinematic Universe, The Nun saw the largest second weekend drop (66%) to $18.2 million (I was a little higher at $19.8 million). The two-week tally stands at $85 million.

Returns were decent for A Simple Favor as it opened in third with $16 million (a bit under my $17.9 million prediction). I see it experiencing the best hold for next weekend and having a real chance at rising to second place (considering the potential dips for The Predator and The Nun).

White Boy Rick premiered in fourth place with an unremarkable $8.8 million, on pace with my $8.7 million estimate. The crime drama also suffered from mixed reviews and it couldn’t manage to get older moviegoers interested.

Crazy Rich Asians rounded out the top five with $8.6 million (I said $8.2 million) to bring its total to $149 million.

Finally, faith-based sequel Unbroken: Path to Redemption gained no traction with audiences earning just $2.2 million for 10th place (I said $2.5 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: September 14-16

A quartet of new titles make their way to multiplexes this weekend: franchise reboot The Predator, Anna Kendrick/Blake Lively thriller A Simple Favor, crime drama White Boy Rick with Matthew McConaughey, and “spiritual sequel” Unbroken: Path to Redemption. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/05/the-predator-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/05/a-simple-favor-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/06/white-boy-rick-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/06/unbroken-path-to-redemption-box-office-prediction/

The Predator should have little trouble hitting the top spot, but I do have it on the lower end of the expectation range in the mid to high 20s.

The Nun got off a terrific start (more on that below) and I do expect a rather large decline due to both front loaded business and fairly poor word of mouth (a C Cinemascore grade). A drop in the low to mid 60s is feasible here and horror pics often have significant declines anyway.

A Simple Favor is intriguing. I believe it should place third and I have it managing to reach its intended female audience with a healthy showing at the top end of estimates.

White Boy Rick has generated zero awards buzz after its Telluride premiere and I’m having trouble seeing it hit double digits. That would put it in fourth.

Even though Peppermint just outdid Crazy Rich Asians for the #2 spot this past weekend, I expect the latter to have a smaller decline and get the five-spot.

As for Unbroken: Path to Redemption, my lowly $2.5 million forecast puts it well outside the top 5.

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend:

1. The Predator

Predicted Gross: $27.4 million

2. The Nun

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million

3. A Simple Favor

Predicted Gross: $17.9 million

4. White Boy Rick

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

5. Crazy Rich Asians

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

Box Office Results (September 7-9)

Warner Bros was in full sister act level celebration mode this weekend as The Nun conquered the charts. The fifth entry in the Conjuring Cinematic Universe experienced the best debut of the franchise with $53.8 million compared to my $45.4 million projection. That’s good for the second highest September opening of all time behind last year’s It.

In a bit of a surprise, Jennifer Garner’s revenge tale Peppermint was second with a decent $13.4 million, topping my $11.8 million prediction. Overcoming poor reviews, the film reached the upper end of its projections. I see it dipping around 50% next weekend and falling out of the top five.

The three-week reign of Crazy Rich Asians came to an end as it placed third with $13.1 million (I said $14.2 million) for $135 million total.

The Meg was fourth with $6 million compared to my $5.4 million take and the shark tale has amassed $131 million.

Searching rounded out the top five with $4.5 million (in line with my $4.2 million prediction) for $14 million overall.

Finally, faith-based drama God Bless the Broken Road premiered in 11th place with a weak $1.3 million. I was a bit more generous at $2.1 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…