February 3-5 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Update (02/01): I am adding a title to the top 5 that I previously didn’t have on Monday when I did my initial projections. The Chosen: Season 3 Finale is playing on over 2000 screens. As you may recall, the season premiere grossed nearly $9 million in December out of the gate. I’ll say the finale generates a little more than that and could challenge Avatar for the 3 spot. Changes are reflected below.

The seven-week reign of Avatar: The Way of Water at #1 should end in its 8th outing as February dawns at the box office. M. Night Shyamalan’s latest thriller Knock at the Cabin and the octogenarian comedy 80 for Brady debut and look to place 1-2. My detailed prediction posts on them can be found here:

Beginning with 2017’s Split, Shyamalan experienced a career resurgence that could carry Cabin (generating solid word-of-mouth) to a low to mid 20s start. Getting close to $30 million is not out of the question. That number should be enough to top the charts.

80 for Brady looks to appeal to a female audience and older viewers. A Man Called Otto recently showed the demographic is ready for a return at multiplexes. With a robust marketing campaign and the involvement of Lily Tomlin, Jane Fonda, Sally Field, and Rita Moreno, I could absolutely see it over performing. My current mid teens forecast is worth keeping an eye on before Thursday (meaning it could rise).

As mentioned, Avatar: The Way of Water (while remaining above $10M) should finally relinquish its stranglehold in first. Fellow holdovers Puss in Boots: The Last Wish and A Man Called Otto should round out the top five and here’s how I see it looking:

1. Knock at the Cabin

Predicted Gross: $23.6 million

2. 80 for Brady

Predicted Gross: $15.5 million

3. Avatar: The Way of Water

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

4. The Chosen: Season 3 Finale

Predicted Gross: $11 million

5. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

6. A Man Called Otto

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

Box Office Results (January 27-29)

Avatar: The Way of Water cruised to a seventh frame atop the charts with $15.9 million (ahead of my $14.3 million take). The domestic haul is $620 million, but the story of the weekend is that it surpassed Star Wars: The Force Awakens to become the fourth largest worldwide grosser in history. That means James Cameron now has three of the top four (with Avatar and Titanic also in the mix).

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish was runner-up with $10.4 million, surpassing my $9.2 million prediction. In six weeks, the animated sequel has amassed $140 million.

The surprise of the weekend was Pathaan, a Hindu language action spectacle that I incorrectly had outside the top five. It was third with $6.8 million and $9.4 million since its Wednesday bow. The PTA of nearly $10k was easily the highest on the charts.

A Man Called Otto was fourth with $6.6 million (in line with my $6 million projection) for $45 million overall.

M3GAN rounded out the top five with $6.2 million (I said $5.8 million) as the campy horror tale is approaching nine figures at $82 million.

Finally, Missing was sixth in its sophomore weekend with $5.6 million, a tad above my $5.1 million call. The ten-day total is $17 million (doubling its reported $7 million budget).

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And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 27-29 Box Office Predictions

2023 has gotten off to a pleasing start at the box office, but the last weekend of January should be rather quiet. Horror pic Fear is slated to be a wide release. I haven’t done an individual prediction post on it because I’ve yet to see a theater count. It would be surprising to see it in the top five. At the moment, I’m thinking it’ll be lucky to reach $2 million.

That means the chart should look very similar to this past frame with Avatar: The Way of Water spending a seventh weekend in first (very likely for the final time with Knock at the Cabin and 80 for Brady on deck). It might be the only feature to make over $10 million as I have dropping in the low to mid 30s for a low teens gross.

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (after a great hold in its 5th life) should stay in second during its sixth. Holdovers A Man Called Otto, M3GAN, and Missing (after a slightly better than anticipated debut) appear poised to populate slots 3-5.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

2. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million

3. A Man Called Otto

Predicted Gross: $6 million

4. M3GAN

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

5. Missing

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

Box Office Results (January 20-22)

A six-peat greeted Avatar: The Way of Water with a take of $20.1 million, a bit under my $23.9 million forecast. James Cameron’s sequel crossed the $2 billion mark worldwide and neared $600 million domestically at $598 million.

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish is showing its multiple lives as it impressed in second with a mere 18% drop. Earning $11.8 million in its fifth outing (I was lower with $8.7 million), the animated follow-up has amassed $126 million.

M3GAN was third in weekend 3 with $9.7 million, on pace with my $9.5 million projection. The campy horror effort hit $73 million.

Missing, the stand-alone sequel to thriller Searching, found some fans in fourth with $9.1 million, surpassing my $6.8 million prediction. Considering the reported $7 million price tag, this should turn a tidy profit.

A Man Called Otto rounded out the top five at $8.8 million (I said $9.3 million). In its second weekend of wide release, it dipped a commendable 31%.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: Weekend of January 20-22, 2023

After a solid MLK long weekend at the box office, tech thriller Missing (a stand-alone sequel to 2018’s Searching) hopes to keep the 2023 momentum going in multiplexes. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

As the only new wide release, I’ve got Missing making the top five. However, it may fall under four holdovers. Avatar: The Way of Water should have no trouble staying in first for the sixth frame. The battle for #2 should be far more interesting. If Missing over performs, it could get there.

I’ve got the earnings of M3GAN, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, and A Man Called Otto separated by under a million. All three did well over the holiday. M3GAN is likely to suffer the biggest drop, but I’ve still got it clinging to #2 with Otto right behind and Boots in fourth.

Here’s how I see it looking for your high five:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

Predicted Gross: $23.9 million

2. M3GAN

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

3. A Man Called Otto

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million

4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

5. Missing

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

Box Office Results (January 13-16)

Friday the 13th and the rest of the weekend was not unlucky as Avatar: The Way of Water 5-peated wtih $39.8 million. That’s just below my take of $41.2 million as James Cameron’s massive sequel sits at $571 million.

M3GAN held up well in its sophomore frame in second with $21.6 million from Friday to Monday. Ahead of my $18.7 million projection, the campy horror hit is grooving to $60 million thus far.

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish actually increased from the previous weekend in third at $18.9 million (slashing past my $13 million estimate). The animated sequel is now in nine figures with a lively $111 million.

Tom Hanks helped bring in adult moviegoers as A Man Called Otto expanded nationwide with a fourth place gross of $15.4 million (on target with my $15.9 million prediction). With an A Cinemascore grade, look for this to hold up well in the coming weeks. The tally is $21 million and growing.

Gerard Butler’s Plane took off in fifth with a decent $11.8 million (flying higher than my $7.2 million forecast). I suspect a drop at or close to 50% is where this lands next weekend.

Finally, comedic remake House Party did OK considering its lowly 1400 screen count. It was sixth with $4.6 million and that’s more RSVPs than my $3 million guesstimate.

That does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 13-16 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (01/11): Considering its meager 1500 screen count and scant buzz, I’m revising my House Party prediction down from $6 million to $3 million. That puts it outside of the top 6.

The 2023 box office got off to an impressive start as studios hope the momentum continues over the four-day MLK weekend. A Man Called Otto expands and we have the Gerard Butler action flick Plane and comedy remake House Party landing. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on the trio here:

Otto, while technically not a newcomer, should perform the best of the newbies. It over performed in limited release this past weekend (more on that below) and could even make a run for #2 depending on the sophomore drop for M3GAN.

Speaking of that demented AI doll, a robust and clever marketing campaign propelled the PG-13 flick to a terrific start. Horror titles often experience hefty declines after their opening, but the holiday could mean a high teens (maybe even low 20s) gross is possible.

Neither M3GAN or Otto will prevent Avatar: The Way of Water from making it five in a row atop the charts. I’m thinking it manages high 30s to low 40s as it builds on the already half billion domestic haul.

As for Plane and House Party, I have both falling under double digits and that would leave them in 5th and 6th behind the fourth outing for Puss in Boots: The Last Wish.

Here’s how I see it playing out and remember that these forecasts are for Friday through Monday:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

Predicted Gross: $41.2 million

2. M3GAN

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million

3. A Man Called Otto

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million

4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Predicted Gross: $13 million

5. Plane

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million

Box Office Results (January 6-8)

As mentioned, it was a healthy kickoff to the new year as Avatar: The Way of Water maintained first position with only a -32 decrease. That’s good for a fourth weekend collection of $45.8 million (beyond my $38.3 million prediction) as it’s amassed $517 million stateside.

M3GAN translated great buzz and sterling reviews to a $30.4 million premiere, dancing past my $24.8 million take. Universal ran a campaign that included memorable trailers and Tik Tok type vids of M3GAN’s crashing Times Square and media interviews. It paid off handsomely.

Universal had the third spot with Puss in Boots: The Last Wish earning $13.5 million, ahead of my $10.2 million projection. The animated sequel is up to $88 million with nine figures on deck.

Maybe grown-ups are ready to return to multiplexes! After plenty of awards bait adult features have disappointed in recent months, A Man Called Otto with Tom Hanks bucked the trend on a still limited 637 screens. The gross was $4.2 million and I incorrectly had it outside my top five.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever was fifth with $3.5 million (I said $3.4 million) for $445 million total.

Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody was sixth with $2.4 million compared to my $2.1 million call. It’s at a ho-hum $19 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 6-8 Box Office Predictions

The first full weekend of the new year sees deranged doll M3GAN dancing into multiplexes as she hopes to have a strong #2 showing behind Avatar: The Way of Water. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on 2023’s initial wide release right here:

I believe M3GAN will perform similarly to last fall’s Smile and a low to mid 20s premiere would cause Universal and Blumhouse to do just that. The trailers have generated lots of attention and the overall marketing campaign (like Smile) has been impressive. There’s a chance it could over perform my estimate, but I don’t see it threatening Avatar.

That’s because the James Cameron sequel achieved the third largest third domestic weekend of all time behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens and the first Avatar. A fourth frame drop in the mid to higher 40s range should net it a mid 30s showing. Like M3GAN, I wouldn’t be shocked it goes higher.

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish should easily be third after an encouraging sophomore outing with Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I think it’ll look:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

Predicted Gross: $38.3 million

2. M3GAN

Predicted Gross: $24.8 million

3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

5. Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody

Predicted Gross: $2.1 million

Box Office Results (December 30-January 1)

2022 closed out and 2023 kicked off with Avatar: The Way of Water dominating the charts with $67.4 million. That’s right in line with my $65.8 million forecast. This third weekend was an important one for the long-in-development follow-up as it’s amassed $425 million stateside coupled with its gigantic worldwide earnings ($1.4 billion).

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish rose 35% from its debut at $16.8 million – in range with my $16.1 million prediction. The DreamWorks animated sequel hit $61 million as nine figures looks doable.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ascended to third with $5.1 million, a touch above my $4.5 million take. Overall haul is $438 million.

Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody felt the heat of a disappointing second frame in fourth. Dropping 16% with $3.9 million, I wrongly thought it might go up at $5.6 million. The meager ten-day tally is $14 million.

Babylon, after a disastrous start, continued the free fall with $2.6 million in fifth (I said $3.2 million). It’s made $10 million with a reported $80 million price tag.

Violent Night was sixth with $2.1 million. I was more optimistic at $3.1 million. The R rated holiday tale has scored a solid $40 million.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

December 30-January 1 Box Office Predictions

Hollywood is hoping that the closeout to 2022 looks better than Christmas weekend. There’s a solid chance that it will. While no new wide releases are on deck, holdovers could see their earnings increase from the prior holiday.

In previous years when Christmas Eve was on Saturday, that meant the typical biggest day of the weekend isn’t as potent (look up 2005, 2011, 2016). Moviegoers treat weekdays similar to Fridays and Saturdays during the end of the year with many on vacation and schools on break. For 2022, you can add a unique wrinkle with this past weekend. Many areas of the country (including where this blogger was) were experiencing winter storm conditions and bitter cold that prevented a night out. The forecast is rosier as we ring in the new year.

The years I mentioned saw most of their returnees see percentage gains. Avatar: The Way of Water will obviously make it a three-peat and I’m envisioning a slight uptick.

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish seems destined for the heftiest lift in the 25-30 percent region. Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody should remain in third and I could see a 15-20% increase considering its A Cinemascore grade.

Babylon, after a dismal start and a C+ Cinemascore, may be an exception as it could diminish slightly. So could Violent Night considering the Yuletide theme. That might mean Black Panther: Wakanda Forever goes from 6th to 4th.

Here’s how I see that top 6 panning out:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

Predicted Gross: $65.8 million

2. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million

3. Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

5. Babylon

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

6. Violent Night

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

Box Office Results (December 23-25)

Due to the reasons listed above, it wasn’t the merriest of Christmases for multiplexes. Nearly all titles couldn’t match my projections. In its sophomore frame, Avatar: The Way of Water took in $63.3 million from Friday to Sunday for an easy 1st place. I was $10 million higher at $73.4 million. The ten-day haul is $261 million. James Cameron’s long in development sequel is poised to hit a billion worldwide tonight and that third week gross should be impressive.

DreamWorks Animation had a far from purr-fect start in second (I’m sorry) for their long in development follow-up Puss in Boots: The Last Wish. It managed $12.4 million from Friday to Sunday and $18.5 million since its Wednesday premiere. I went with $18.3 million and $28.5 million, respectively. Luckily this could have a second life (maybe even nine) with little competition for its intended audience.

Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody couldn’t find its groove with a flat $4.7 million opening in third. I was much more optimistic with $11.5 million. Despite mostly negative reviews, the crowds that did turn up liked what they saw and this should get a decent bump.

Damien Chazelle’s Babylon was a pricey dud. With a reported $80 million price tag, the three hour hard R rated tale of early Hollywood fizzled with only $3.6 million in fourth. I predicted $8.7 million. As mentioned, the only bumps I expect this to experience are the ones the characters are doing.

Violent Night rounded out the top five with $3.5 million (I said $3.3 million). Overall take is $41 million. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever was sixth with $3.4 million, on pace with my $3.2 million forecast for $426 million total.

And that does it for now, folks. Happy New Year!

December 16-18 Box Office Predictions

Theaters owners are counting on Avatar: The Way of Water to save them from drowning in red ink following the second lowest box office frame of 2022. James Cameron’s long in the making sequel is the only new release out and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

With Oscar buzz (like the 2009 original) and solid reviews, Water could potentially surface with the largest premiere of the year. To do so, it would need to surpass the $187 million that Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness achieved in May. Considering the runtime of over three hours, it may fall a bit short of that. My projection has it behind Multiverse and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever for the third heftiest ’22 haul and the 18th highest debut of all time.

Speaking of Wakanda, it will finally fall to second after five weeks atop the charts. Fellow holdovers Violent Night, Strange World, and The Menu should all slide a spot as well. All of these returnees experienced small declines this weekend, but may dip a tad more due to Avatar overtaking multiplexes.

Here’s how I see the top 5 shaking out:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

Predicted Gross: $173.1 million

2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

3. Violent Night

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

4. Strange World

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

5. The Menu

Predicted Gross: $1.9 million

Box Office Results (December 9-11)

As mentioned, it was a sluggish time in theaters as Avatar is on deck to make a splash. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever made it a handful of weekends in first place with $11.2 million. That’s on pace with my $10.6 million prediction as the MCU sequel is up to $409 million.

Violent Night remained in second with a sturdy 35% drop at $8.7 million, in line with my $8.5 million take. The Yuletide shoot-em-up has grossed $26 million in ten days.

Disney’s flop Strange World was third with $3.7 million compared to my $3.1 million estimate. Overall tally is just $30 million.

The Menu was fourth with $2.7 million (I said $2.8 million) for $29 million total.

Devotion rounded out the top five with $2 million. I went with $1.7 million and the aviation drama is at $17 million.

Finally, there was a bit of good news in a bad weekend. A24’s The Whale, in which Brendan Fraser is expected to vie for the Best Actor Oscar, achieved 2022’s best per screen performance. In only six venues, it earned approximately $360k. That $60k average tops Everything Everywhere All at Once, which previously had the year’s strongest average at $50k. It expands across wider on December 21st.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

December 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Audiences weren’t digging the leftovers in the first frame of December and it’ll get even worse this weekend. The top 5 could look awfully familiar with Black Panther: Wakanda Forever on top for a fifth time before Avatar: The Way of Water looks to liven up multiplexes beginning December 16th.

There are only two semi-wide newcomers to speak of and I didn’t do individual prediction posts on either. Father Stu: Reborn is a recut version of this spring’s true life drama with Mark Wahlberg and Mel Gibson. It earned a not so heavenly but not terrible $20 million a few months back. This version is PG-13 and not R. I don’t believe it’ll clear $1 million and that puts it outside the top five.

Spoiler Alert, another true life drama and this one featuring Jim Parsons, expands to approximately 600 venues after opening in six theaters this past weekend. It might be lucky to hit a million and that would leave it outside the top five too.

There’s a small chance that Violent Night, the Santa shoot-em-up with David Harbour, could elevate to 1st place after a decent debut (more on that below). However, Black Panther : Wakanda Forever should manage to make it five in a row before James Cameron’s sequel hits.

Meanwhile the battle for third could be close between the third weekend of Disney dud Strange World and the fourth helping of The Menu.

Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:

1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

2. Violent Night

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

3. Strange World

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

4. The Menu

Predicted Gross: $2.8 million

5. Devotion

Predicted Gross: $1.7 million

Box Office Results (December 2-4)

MCU sequel Black Panther: Wakanda Forever made it four in a row with $17.5 million. That’s under my projection of $21.3 million as the 62% fall was rather steep considering the lack of competition. The total did rise to $393 million.

Violent Night dropped at the higher end of its range with $13.4 million, outpacing my $9.4 million take. The grisly Yuletide tale could manage to play well over the coming holidays.

Strange World continued the embarrassing returns for the Mouse Factory with only $5 million in its sophomore weekend. I was close with $5.2 million. That’s a mere $25 million in its first 12 days.

The Menu was fourth with $3.4 million (I said $3.1 million) as it’s made $24 million thus far.

Devotion had a turbulent 54% plummet in weekend #2 with $2.7 million. I estimated a bit more at $3.3 million. Overall gross is $13 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

December 2-4 Box Office Predictions

After a historically weak Thanksgiving frame that left moviegoers hungry for other options, the first weekend of December should be rather quiet at multiplexes as well. The lone wide release is Violent Night with David Harbour as a gun toting Santa. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Night, even though I have it falling under $10 million, should slide into the runner-up position behind Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. The MCU sequel looks to four-peat and should have no trouble doing so. A low to mid 50s drop would put it over $20 million. It’s likely to be #1 for five weekends until Avatar: The Way of Water arrives on December 16th.

After a disastrous opening (more on that below), Strange World should fall to third. With a weak B Cinemascore grade, the Disney animated flop could experience a plummet in the mid to high 50s. Who knows? Maybe even higher.

The four and five spots could be close between the second and third frames of Devotion and The Menu. Both should see dips in the mid 40s.

Here’s how I see the top 5 looking:

1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

2. Violent Night

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

3. Strange World

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

4. Devotion

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

5. The Menu

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

Box Office Results (Thanksgiving Weekend)

The Turkey Day holiday didn’t bring in the masses as the weekend fell under $100 million. That’s despite plenty of new releases for crowds to chew on.

Strangely enough, the biggest winner belonged to a streamer. Netflix doesn’t officially report numbers. They put Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, the acclaimed sequel to 2019’s blockbuster, on just under 700 screens. Word is out that it did approximately $9.2 million from Friday to Sunday and $13.3 million since the Wednesday start. That per theater average of over $13k is easily the best of the bunch. Onion is scheduled to leave its venues tomorrow before it hits Netflix on December 23rd.

Now back to the movies that do report official tallies. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever easily stayed atop the charts with $45.5 million, besting my $37.9 million prediction in weekend #3. The 17-day total is $367 million.

The story of the holiday was the dismal Strange World performance. The Mouse Factory had a disappointing result over the summer with Lightyear. This made it look like a phenomenon. World took in an embarrassing $12.1 million from Friday to Sunday and $18.8 million in the five-day. I said it would manage $19.3 million and $26.7 million, respectively. Simply put, Disney animated efforts aren’t supposed to do those anemic figures.

I suppose technically Glass Onion was third, so the war saga Devotion was fourth. Despite mostly decent reviews, it was a flop considering the reported $90 million budget. The Friday to Sunday take was $5.9 million with $9 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. I went higher with $7.2 million and $10.7 million.

The Menu rounded out the top five at $5.4 million (I said $6.4 million) to bring the two-week gross to $18 million.

Black Adam was sixth with $3.2 million, on target with my $3.3 million prediction. Total is $162 million.

Steven Spielberg’s awards hopeful The Fabelmans was on 638 screens and was seventh with $2.2 million ($3.1 million for the five-day). That’s under my guesstimates of $2.8 million and $4.1 million. While that’s easily the second best average of the newbies (after Onion), it’s still not too impressive. It will hope to develop legs during awards season.

The cannibalistic romance Bones and All wasn’t a recipe for success with an 8th place showing. The $2.2 million and $3.6 million three and five day earnings couldn’t match my $3.5 and $5.3 million projections.

Ticket to Paradise was ninth with $1.8 million (I went with $2.3 million) as the rom com is up to $65 million.

Fathom Event The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2 was 10th as it dove 81% to $1.5 million. I was more giving at $2.4 million. In ten days, it’s made $13 million.

Finally, She Said was 11th after its poor premiere last weekend. With $1.1 million (I said $1.6 million), it’s at a lowly $4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

November 25-27 Box Office Predictions

Hollywood is hoping audiences mix a trip to the multiplex in their holiday plans. We have a slew of new releases, but it should be a three-week old leftover topping the Turkey weekend charts. Disney’s animated Strange World, aerial adventure Devotion, cannibalistic romance Bones and All, and Steven Spielberg’s coming-of-age awards hopeful The Fabelmans all debut or expand. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Let’s begin with a title you don’t see. Rian Johnson’s Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery is the eagerly awaited and well-reviewed follow-up to Knives Out, which opened over the same holiday three years ago. Netflix is the distributor and it will be before our streaming eyes for Christmas. Onion is hitting approximately 600 venues for a sneak preview from Wednesday to Sunday. It is not expected that Netflix will report its financials. That’s why you won’t find it in the top 10. If they do end up deciding to do so, I imagine it’ll do quite well (and be either third or fourth).

Back to movies where we expect box office grosses! Strange World is the Mouse Factory’s latest animated offering to be unveiled over Thanksgiving. Yet the marketing campaign has been weak. My high teens three-day and mid 20s five-day is very subpar for the studio. On the bright side, they’ll certainly have numbers 1-2 as Black Panther: Wakanda Forever should three-peat with a drop in the low 40s range.

Devotion could over perform if enough older moviegoers check in. I have it settling for a so-so third place in the high single digits for the traditional frame and low double digits for the Wednesday to Sunday portion.

The Menu should be fourth after an appetizing start (more on that below). I think it’ll only fall in the high 20s or low 30s for the sophomore outing. Bones and All could round out the top five. Its gory subject matter could prevent crowds from perusing its gruesome menu.

Spielberg’s The Fabelmans is out on just 600 screens. That limits the potential and I have a gut feeling it may fall short of expectations anyway. I have it pegged for 7th place as it hopes that Oscar buzz improves its earnings in later weekends.

Here’s how I envision the top 10 looking with 3 and 5 day estimates for the newcomers:

1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Predicted Gross: $37.9 million

2. Strange World

Predicted Gross: $19.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $26.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

3. Devotion

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $10.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

4. The Menu

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

5. Bones and All

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $5.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

6. Black Adam

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

7. The Fabelmans

Predicted Gross: $2.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

8. The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2

Predicted Gross: $2.4 million

9. Ticket to Paradise

Predicted Gross: $2.3 million

10. She Said

Predicted Gross: $1.6 million

Box Office Results (November 18-20)

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever didn’t quite drop as far as MCU predecessors Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness or Thor: Love and Thunder, but it was still a steep decline. The sequel to 2018’s phenomenon slid 63% in weekend 2 with $66.4 million, under my $70.3 million projection. The ten-day tally is $287 million.

The Menu was the rare pic for the grown-ups that performed admirably. The culinary satire was runner-up with $9 million, a bit ahead of my $8.2 million prediction. Look for it for to hold well over Thanksgiving.

The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2 had its core audience believing as the Fathom Events experience was third with $8.7 million (topping my $7.5 million estimate). Last December, Christmas with the Chosen: The Messengers had a 71% plummet in its second weekend. Expect similar results here.

Black Adam was fourth with $4.6 million (I said $5.3 million) as the superhero pic is up to $157 million after four weeks.

Ticket to Paradise rounded out the top five at $3.1 million, below my $4.1 million prediction. The rom com has grossed $61 million.

Finally, She Said was a dud. Focused on the journalistic journey to expose Harvey Weinstein, it was a quiet sixth at $2.2 million. I went with $3.4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Have a Happy Thanksgiving!!