April 19-21 Box Office Predictions

It’s Easter weekend at the box office and we have three new pictures opening. There’s The Darkness (The Curse of La Llorona), The Light (Breakthrough), and The Penguins (Penguins). Two of them will attempt to dislodge Shazam! from its two-week perch in the top spot. Yet this holiday frame will likely be known as “the one before Avengers: Endgame opened”. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/09/the-curse-of-la-llorona-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/09/breakthrough-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/10/penguins-box-office-prediction/

The Curse of La Llorona takes place in the Conjuring Cinematic Universe, but it hasn’t really been marketed heavily as such. Therefore I believe it will easily have the lowest debut of the franchise, but still manage to top the charts.

Breakthrough has the potential to do just that with faith-based crowds. I do question whether it can manage to achieve what Heaven Is for Real accomplished five Easter’s ago ($29 million for its five-day gross). Debuting on Wednesday, I’ll say mid teens for the traditional weekend and low 20s when factoring in the extra days.

Penguins is the latest DisneyNature venture. The latest efforts in the series have earned between $4-$5 million for their starts. This opens on Wednesday as well, so I’ll put it a touch under. My $3.5 million Friday to Sunday projection ($5 million five-day) puts this outside my top five.

Shazam! should slide to third after two weeks in first position with Little coming in fourth. As for the five-spot, I’m saying Captain Marvel. It should experience a smaller percentage decline than Hellboy and Dumbo. That could be good enough to take it from sixth to fifth before she joins her superhero pals next weekend in Endgame.

And with that, my take on the holiday weekend:

1. The Curse of La Llorona

Predicted Gross: $20.1 million

2. Breakthrough

Predicted Gross: $16.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $22 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

3. Shazam!

Predicted Gross: $14 million

4. Little

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

5. Captain Marvel

Predicted Gross: $6 million

Box Office Results (April 1214)

As expected, Shazam! retained its perch on top with $24.4 million, a bit lower than my $28.2 million prediction. The DC tale is sniffing the century mark after ten days with $94 million.

The Regina Hall comedy Little led four newcomers in second with $15.4 million, managing to exceed my $14 million projection.

The story of the weekend was the pitiful performance of Hellboy. The comic book based reboot bombed with just $12 million in third, under my $17.4 million take. This potential franchise pretty much ended before it began.

Pet Sematary was fourth in its sophomore outing with $9.7 million (I said $10.5 million). Total is $40 million.

I incorrectly had Dumbo outside the top five and it made $9.4 million to bring its tally to $90 million.

College romance After was eighth and topped most estimates with $6 million. I was much lower at $3.7 million.

Finally, Laika Animation has its worst opening by a lot. Missing Link, despite positive reviews, couldn’t find an audience. It took in just $5.9 million for ninth. I was considerably higher at $11.7 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

April 12-14 Box Office Predictions

A quartet of new titles attempt to knock critically acclaimed superhero Shaza! out of the top spot this weekend, but that looks to be a tall order. We have comic book franchise reboot Hellboy, Laika Animation’s Missing Link, Regina Hall comedy Little, and college set romance After. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/03/hellboy-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/05/missing-link-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/06/little-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/07/after-box-office-prediction/

There is a great deal of uncertainty with how the newbies will perform this weekend. It seems highly likely, on the other hand, that DC’s newest crime fighter will retain the top spot. After premiering right in line with expectations, I have Shaza! dipping in the mid to high 40s and comfortably staying first,

Hellboy is a known brand, but it’s been a decade since the character was onscreen. Buzz seems very muted, but I’ll still say a high teens opening should be enough to nab it the runner-up spot. I’m shaky on it though.

Little has breakout potential, but I’m not willing yet to predict high teens. My lower teens estimate puts it in third and that’s just ahead of Missing Link, which I’m projecting will hit the lower debut end of other material from its studio.

After is a real head scratcher. The novel it’s based on has its fans. It opens on the smallest number of screens for the debuts (about 2000). I’m going pretty low with $3.7 million and that’s well outside the top 5. Yet the potential for it to surprise is real.

Pet Sematary could fall from second to fifth in its sophomore frame with about a 50% dip. That’s pretty normal for horror pics.

And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:

1. Shazam!

Predicted Gross: $28.2 million

2. Hellboy

Predicted Gross: $17.4 million

3. Little

Predicted Gross: $14 million

4. Missing Link

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million

5. Pet Sematary

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

Box Office Results (April 57)

As mentioned, DC had a nice weekend as Shazamhit its mark with $53.5 million, just ahead of my $52.5 million take. Sporting solid reviews, it should make a sizable chunk of change before The Avengers roll in at month’s end.

Pet Sematary posted a decent start in second with $24.5 million. It also had critical stamp of approval. The Stephen King adaptation fell quite a bit shy of my generous $34.7 million prediction.

The middling news for Dumbo continued. After a lackluster start, the elephant tale was third in weekend #2 with $18.2 million. My estimate flew higher at $22.3 million. The two-week tally sits at $76 million.

Us was fourth with $13.7 million in its third outing, falling behind my expectation of $16.6 million. However, the $20 million horror pic has amassed $152 million thus far.

Captain Marvel rounded out the top five with $12.4 million (I said $12.2 million) for $373 million overall.

Finally, the civil rights drama The Best of Enemies underwhelmed in sixth with just $4.4 million compared to my $5.9 million forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

April 5-7 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (04/04): On the eve of their premieres, some changes:

Shazam! from $59.5 million to $52.5 million

Pet Sematary from $28.7 million to $34.7 million

April has sprung at the box office and we have three new wide releases hitting multiplexes: critically hailed DC superhero pic Shazam!, Stephen King adapted horror remake Pet Sematary, and civil rights drama The Best of Enemies with Taraji P. Henson and Sam Rockwell. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/27/shazam-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/28/pet-sematary-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/30/the-best-of-enemies-box-office-prediction/

I’m on the higher end of the range with Shazam!, believing it could reach awfully close to $60 million or over and easily bolting into the top spot. Sematary could also exceed my estimate, but I’ll go high 20s for a second place showing. As for Enemies, I’m not as optimistic and my $5.9 million prediction would put it at #6.

Holdovers Dumbo and Us could be in line for drops close to 50% in their second and third respective weekends with Captain Marvel rounding out the top five.

And with that, my view of the frame ahead:

1. Shazam!

Predicted Gross: $52.5 million

2. Pet Sematary

Predicted Gross: $34.7 million

3. Dumbo

Predicted Gross: $22.3 million

4. Us

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million

5. Captain Marvel

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million

Box Office Results (March 2931)

Tim Burton’s live action version of Disney’s Dumbo had no trouble hitting #1, but did so with rather mediocre results. Coming off mixed reviews, the elephant tale managed $45.9 million. That’s quite lower than my $55.6 million projection. That’s far less than other recent Mouse Factory renderings of their animated classics.

Us fell to second with a mid 50s dip to $33.2 million. I forecasted more at $38.4 million. Yet the $20 million budgeted horror flick stands at $127 million in just ten days.

Captain Marvel was third with $20.6 million (I said $20.2 million) for $353 million total and $400 million in its sights.

The success story of the weekend was pro-life Pure Flix drama Unplanned, which easily exceeded expectations in fourth with $6.3 million. I was considerably lower at $2.6 million.

Five Feet Apart was fifth with $6.1 million (I said $5.9 million). Tally is $35 million.

With Unplanned reaching the top five, that put Wonder Park in sixth with $5 million – on target with my $4.9 million prediction. The animated feature has earned $37 million.

Hotel Mumbai expanded to nearly 1000 screens and was eighth with $3.1 million compared to my $3.4 million.

Finally, Matthew McConaughey had yet another box office wipeout as The Beach Bum was tenth with $1.7 million (I said $1.6 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 29-31 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (03/27): My Dumbo prediction has dropped from $65.6 million to $55.6 million.

After Us rocked the box office this past weekend, a quartet of newcomers open nationwide on Friday: Tim Burton’s live action rendering of Disney’s 1941 animated classic Dumbo, true life action thriller Hotel Mumbai, Pure Flix pro-life drama Unplanned, and Matthew McConaughey stoner comedy The Beach Bum. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/20/dumbo-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/24/hotel-mumbai-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/24/unplanned-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/24/the-beach-bum-box-office-prediction/

Dumbo should have little trouble flying into the winners circle. I have it slated for a mid 60s opening. That’s far from what the Mouse Factory achieved with the non drawn versions of Beauty and the Beast and The Jungle Book and more in line with 2015’s Cinderella.

The remainder of the premieres may all have trouble reaching the top five. Mumbai could fare the best after a decent limited release start, even though it’s on less screens than Unplanned or The Beach Bum. I have those titles hitting just $2.6 million and $1.6 million, respectively. I’m a bit more optimistic with Mumbai, putting it at $3.4 million.

A big question this weekend is how far Us will drop after its fantastic performance out of the gate (more on that below). It stands to reason that this will be more front loaded than Jordan Peele’s Get Out, which rode a wave of water cooler chatter. I foresee a dip in the mid to possibly high 40s range.

Captain Marvel, Five Feet Apart, and Wonder Park could populate the rest of the high-five, assuming none of the new trio not named Dumbo manages to exceed expectations.

Here’s my take on the weekend ahead:

1. Dumbo

Predicted Gross: $55.6 million

2. Us

Predicted Gross: $38.4 million

3. Captain Marvel

Predicted Gross: $20.2 million

4. Five Feet Apart

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

5. Wonder Park

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (March 2224)

As mentioned, acclaimed horror flick Us dominated the charts and proved that its maker Jordan Peele is a valuable commodity at the moment. Taking in $71.1 million (well past my $58.8 million projection), Us is the largest live action feature based on original material since 2009’s Avatar. It doubled the $33 million brought in by Peele’s breakout Get Out. With a meager $20 million budget, it’s safe to assume the champagne bottles are popping over at Universal.

Captain Marvel dropped to second after two weeks on top with $34.2 million, just under my $36.4 million estimate. The MCU effort has amassed $320 million thus far.

Wonder Park was third with $8.7 million. I was a little higher at $10.4 million. The two-week tally is $29 million.

Five Feet Apart was close behind in fourth with $8.5 million (I said $7.7 million) and $26 million overall. I expect Park and Feet to flip positions this weekend.

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World rounded out the top five with $6.5 million compared to my $6.1 million prediction. Its total is $145 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 22-24 Box Office Predictions

This weekend at the box office, it’s all about Us – as in Jordan Peele’s critically acclaimed and eagerly awaited follow-up to his breakthrough hit Get Out. It’s the only new wide release before us and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/12/us-box-office-prediction/

I have the horror pic slated for a mid to high 50s debut and that should easily nab it the top spot, knocking Captain Marvel off after two weeks in first. The rest of the top five should be populated by holdovers Wonder Park and Five Feet Apart, which both exceeded expectations in their premieres, as well as How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World.

And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:

1. Us

Predicted Gross: $56.8 million

2. Captain Marvel

Predicted Gross: $36.4 million

3. Wonder Park

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million

4. Five Feet Apart

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

Box Office Results (March 1517)

Captain Marvel easily held onto first in its sophomore frame with $67.9 million, a touch below my $71.3 million projection. The Marvel blockbuster has amassed $264 million in its first ten days of release.

Animated Wonder Park placed second with $15.8 million, well beyond my $10.3 million prediction. Considering its reported $100 million budget, that’s still nothing spectacular, but it is definitely on the highest end of estimates.

Romantic drama Five Feet Apart was third with $13.1 million, ahead of my $10.7 million forecast. Unlike Wonder Park, the price tag here was a measly $7 million and it nearly doubled that out of the gate.

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World was fourth with $9.2 million (I said $9.4 million) for $135 million overall.

I didn’t give Mr. Perry enough credit as A Madea Family Funeral rounded out the top five with $7.8 million compared to my $5.6 million take. The three-week tally is $58 million.

Spanish comedy sequel No Manches Frida 2 was sixth, opening with $3.8 million on under 500 screens. I was close at $3.4 million.

In seventh, the barely publicized alien invasion thriller Captive State took in just $3.1 million (I said $2.8 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Us Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (03/19/19): The upgrade has happened from $48.8 million to $56.8 million

Next weekend we will find out if lightning strikes again for director Jordan Peele with the release of Us. The horror pic is Peele’s eagerly awaited sophomore effort and follow-up to his 2017 debut Get Out. That film rode a cultural wave of excitement and critical raves that resulted in a Best Picture nomination and an Oscar for Peele for his original screenplay.

Perhaps not since M. Night Shyamalan’s Unbreakable (his feature after The Sixth Sense) have we seen a movie that can sold mostly on “from the director of…”. Us centers on a family being terrorized by a brood that appears to be different versions of themselves. The cast includes Lupita Nyong’o, Winston Duke, Elisabeth Moss, and Tim Heidecker.

Any fears of a sophomore slump were eliminated this past weekend when Us screened at South by Southwest. Reviews are strong with 100% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Get Out exceeded opening weekend projections two years ago when it made $33 million for its start and legged out considerably to $176 million.

Us doesn’t have the benefit of unknown expectations. Peele’s name and some seriously effective trailers have prognosticators thinking this will exceed the first weekend of Get Out. Whether it experiences the smallish declines from weekend to weekend is a better question as Us should be more front-loaded with its earnings.

I’ll say mid to high 40s is where this lands with $50 million certainly being a possibility.

Us opening weekend prediction: $56.8 million

March 15-17 Box Office Predictions

Captain Marvel looks to make another giant pot of box office gold in its sophomore frame while a quartet of newcomers could struggle to get noticed. There’s the animated Wonder Park, youthful romantic drama Five Feet Apart, and alien invasion flick Captive State debuting and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/09/wonder-park-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/09/five-feet-apart-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/10/captive-state-box-office-prediction/

I’m not expecting much from the newbies. I didn’t do an individual post for Mexican comedy sequel No Manches Frida 2, which hits the smallest number of screens at around 450. It will likely post the highest per screen average of the premieres and I’ll forecast a $3.4 million debut for sixth place. That’s better than my take on Captive State. It opens in almost five times as many venues, but I’m projecting a measly $2.8 million.

Park and Feet could find themselves in a close battle for second. I’m giving the latter a slight edge. It’s also feasible that How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World could stay in the runner-up spot behind the latest MCU juggernaut.

Here’s how I have the top 5 playing out:

1. Captain Marvel

Predicted Gross: $71.3 million

2. Five Feet Apart

Predicted Gross: $10.7 million

3. Wonder Park

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

4. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

5. Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

Box Office Results (March 1517)

I’ll give myself a little pat on the back with my Captain Marvel prediction as it made $153.4 million and I was just a million off at $154.4 million. That’s a sterling start for Brie Larson’s heroine and I look for this to fall around 53% in its second frame.

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World fell to second with $14.6 million. I was a touch higher at $16.6 million. Total is $119 million.

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral was third with $12.4 million (I said $11 million) for $46 million overall in two weeks.

The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part made $3.8 million for fourth place. My $3.9 million forecast was right there. It’s nearly at the century mark with $97 million.

Alita: Battle Angel rounded out the top five with $3.2 million (I said $4 million) for $78 million to date.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…