Tag: Box Office Results

September 11-13 Box Office Predictions

Spidey’s reign atop the box office charts looks to end this weekend with the release of Practical Magic 2. We also have the South Korean sci-fi action epic Hope and period action drama The Uprising out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Practical Magic 2 Box Office Prediction
Hope Box Office Prediction
The Uprising Box Office Prediction

Reuniting Sandra Bullock and Nicole Kidman 26 years after their witchy original, Practical Magic 2 has a nostalgia factor and an appeal to a female audience that could mean an impressive start. My high 40s projection gives it (unadjusted for inflation) more in its first frame than the 1998 original made in its entire domestic run.

Hope is a wild card as the South Korean release boasts the widest opening from its country since 2019’s Parasite. The Wednesday bow has me thinking it’ll manage a fifth place start over the traditional weekend with nearly $10 million over the five-day.

My hunch is that The Uprising from Paul Greengrass and starring Andrew Garfield will struggle. Out on a smallish 1500 reported screens, my mid single digits estimate should mean a premiere just outside the top five.

As for holdovers, Spider-Man: Brand New Day may still manage double digits as it finally moves to the runner-up spot while The Odyssey and Coyote vs. Acme should be third and fourth. Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Practical Magic 2

Predicted Gross: $43.5 million

2. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

3. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

4. Coyote vs. Acme

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

5. Hope

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $9.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

6. The Uprising

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (September 4-7)

Capping off a fruitful summer, the Labor Day weekend was a winner for the MCU as Spider-Man: Brand New Day put up $23.7 million from Friday to Monday. That’s right on pace with my $23 million prediction with the juggernaut hitting $923 million after six weeks. It is now just $13 million away from the all-time domestic record of $936 million held by Star Wars: The Force Awakens. That record looks to fall in the coming days.

The Odyssey was once again #2 with $17.2 million, eclipsing my $14.8 million projection. Christopher Nolan’s all-time largest earner grew to $588 million after eight weeks.

Coyote vs. Acme held up impressively in third for its sophomore outing with $16.1 million compared to my $13.2 million call. The tally is $38 million for the live-action/animated hybrid that nearly didn’t see the light of day.

The holiday weekend’s top grossing newcomer was By Any Means with Mark Wahlberg. The crime thriller was fourth with $9.2 million, a bit ahead of my $7.8 million forecast.

Disney/Pixar’s 20th anniversary re-release of Cars rounded out the top five with $8 million and I incorrectly had it outside of the top half of the chart.

Insidious: Out of the Further placed sixth and also took in $8 million (I said $7.5 million). The horror sequel has scared up $55 million in three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

September 4-7 Box Office Predictions

There are multiple new releases making their way to multiplexes over the Labor Day frame, but I only have one managing a top five showing. That would be 1960s set crime thriller By Any Means with Mark Wahlberg and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II as it attempts double digits over the holiday weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

By Any Means Box Office Prediction

As summer turns into fall on the cinematic calendar, the MCU should be perched atop the charts for a sixth weekend in a row courtesy of Spider-Man: Brand New Day. A note that over this particular weekend, holdovers often experience minimal percentage declines or even a slight increase as moviegoers catch up on recent offerings. From Friday to Monday, I have Spidey essentially doing what it did in its fifth outing.

The Odyssey could return to second place from third while Coyote vs. Acme drops a spot after a notable premiere (more on that below). The latter’s second week drop is a head scratcher and it could be more front-loaded that I’m assuming. On the flip side, families could show up in solid numbers since it appears to have fresh word-of-mouth with an A Cinemascore.

Means may flirt with $10M+ in a best case scenario though I’ve got falling under for a fourth place start and Insidious: Out of the Further rounding out the top five.

As for other fresh product, I’m skeptical that horror offering Onslaught from Adam Wingard, survival flick sequel Fall 2: Deadpoint (out Wednesday), or Pixar’s 20th anniversary re-issue of Cars populate the top half of the top ten so no individual posts for that trio.

And with that, here’s how I have the top 5 shaking out and keep in mind that these are Friday through Monday guesstimates:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $23 million

2. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million

3. Coyote vs. Acme

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. By Any Means

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

5. Insidious: Out of the Further

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

Box Office Results (August 28-30)

As anticipated, Spider-Man: Brand New Day had no trouble swinging to a fifth victory with $22.5 million, in line with my $23.2 million call. With $891 million in its coffers, Day looks to exceed domestic record holder Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936 million) in short order.

After Warner Bros jettisoned it as a tax write-off in 2023, Ketchup Entertainment squeezed some decent figures out of the live-action/animated hybrid Coyote vs. Acme. With $15.9 million, it was runner-up and surpassed my $13.8 million projection. Considering it was never going to see the light of day if WB had their way, it’s a better than expected result.

The Odyssey was third after four weeks in second position with $14.3 million, just under my $15.6 million call for a seven-week take of $563 million.

Insidious: Out of the Further dropped 59% in its sophomore weekend with $10.2 million compared to my $9.4 million take. The sixth feature in the horror franchise is at $43 million total.

With so-so reviews and muted WOM, Ridley Scott’s The Dog Stars starring Jacob Elordi, Josh Brolin, and Margaret Qualley failed to find an audience in fifth with $7.7 million (I said $8.3 million).

Finally, Roadside Attractions had a laudable showing with the low-budget Buddy in sixth. I didn’t do a prediction write-up for it, but the satirical horror tale made $5.5 million. The per theater average nearly equaled that of Acme.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 28-30 Box Office Predictions

August at the box office should close out like July did with Spider-Man: Brand New Day ruling the charts. Coyote vs. Acme, the live-action/animated hybrid with a bumpy journey to theaters and Ridley Scott’s post-apocalyptic drama The Dog Stars are the fresh challengers to the throne and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Coyote vs. Acme Box Office Prediction
The Dog Stars Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros axed Coyote as a tax write-off as the Looney Tunes tale (shot in 2022) finally was picked up by Ketchup Entertainment. They hope to squeeze an opening weekend in the high teens though my low teens projection could mean third place.

That’s because the MCU’s Spidey adventure should see a fifth weekend in 1st with a drop in the low to mid 40s. The Odyssey could rise from third to second as Insidious: Out of the Further could see a sophomore frame plummet in the 60% range.

I’m putting Further in a close race with The Dog Stars for fourth place as I don’t see the latter finding much of an audience.

Here’s how I see the top five shaking out:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $23.2 million

2. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $15.6 million

3. Coyote vs. Acme

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

4. Insidious: Out of the Further

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

5. The Dog Stars

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

Box Office Results (August 21-23)

The sixth entry of the Insidious horror franchise was no match for Tom Holland as Brand New Day spent a fourth weekend as the champ. Spidey took in $39 million, just ahead of my $38 million prediction for $854 million total. This week it will become the second highest grossing domestic feature in history (unadjusted for inflation) behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936 million).

Insidious: Out of the Further settled for second with $25.1 million, under my $29.7 million call. While its numbers are just fine considering the reported $18 million budget, it did not match the $33 million that predecessor The Red Door opened to in 2023.

The Odyssey was third with $19.7 million compared to my $17.1 million take as the epic adventure has amassed $539 million in six weeks. It has now surpassed The Dark Knight ($534 million) to become Christopher Nolan’s largest stateside earner.

PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie was fourth in weekend #2 with $9.1 million, in line with my $9.6 million forecast. The animated sequel stands at $35 million.

The End of Oak Street, another dino movie, rounded out the top five with $8.7 million (I said $8.2 million) for $37 million after two weeks.

Jason Statham’s Mutiny was sixth with $7.7 million as the star’s latest action thriller premiered close to my $7.7 million projection.

Tony, focused on a formative summer in the life of Anthony Bourdain, expanded nationwide and was seventh with $5 million compared to my $6 million prediction. The overall tally is $6.6 million.

Finally, comedy Spa Weekend fizzled in ninth with $3 million though that is ahead of my $2.3 million prognosis.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 21-23 Box Office Predictions

For the first time in several weeks, we could have a competition for the #1 spot with Insidious: Out of the Further potentially challenging Spider-Man: Brand New Day‘s fourth frame at the box office. We also have Mutiny with Jason Statham hoping to land in the top five. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Insidious: Out of the Further Box Office Prediction
Mutiny Box Office Prediction

The sixth entry in a 13-year-old steady horror franchise, Further could scare up the mid 30s or higher in a best case scenario. If so, Spidey could be prevented from a fourth weekend atop the charts. Yet my near $30 million projection should put it in the runner-spot assuming Tom Holland’s hero sees a decline in the mid 40s to 50% range.

Mutiny could make $10 million or so if it hits the top end of its range, but my estimate would put it in sixth. I didn’t do individual posts predicting the opening grosses for Spa Weekend (a comedy with Leslie Mann and Isla Fisher) or the nationwide expansion of Anthony Bourdain early years biopic Tony. I don’t figure either will place higher than 6th. I’ll say $6 million for Tony and just $2.3 million for Spa.

The Odyssey should drop to 3rd after three weeks in 2nd in the high teens with PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie and dino movie The End of Oak Street in 4th and 5th. As for the latter, it may suffer a significant decline considering the meh B Cinemascore grade.

Here’s how I have the top 6 shaking out:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $38 million

2. Insidious: Out of the Further

Predicted Gross: $29.7 million

3. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million

4. PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

5. The End of Oak Street

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

6. Mutiny

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

Box Office Results (August 14-16)

Spider-Man: Brand New Day achieved the second best third outing at domestic multiplexes ever with $70.7 million, swinging beyond my $60.2 million call. That’s well behind the $90 million third weekend for Star Wars: The Force Awakens and just in front of Avatar‘s $68 million. The MCU’s return to dominance stands at $786 million stateside thus far.

The Odyssey, despite serious competition, held in second with $23.6 million and ahead of my $21 million prediction. The epic tale grew to $505 million after five weeks.

David Robert Mitchell’s The End of Oak Street with Anne Hathaway and lots of CG prehistoric creatures had a softish landing in third with $21 million, easily under my $31.1 million take. As mentioned, so-so word-of-mouth might cause faster extinction in theaters.

PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie was fourth with $20.2 million, a tad below predecessor The Mighty Movie though ahead of my $18.7 million projection.

Katseye: Wild Hearts was fifth with $3.9 million. It admittedly was not on my radar and I didn’t do a prediction post for the documentary about the L.A. based pop group.

Finally, The Brink of War from Angel Studios faltered in seventh with $2.6 million (I said $4.5 million). Older audiences didn’t turn up for the drama about Reagan and Gorbachev’s 1986 summit in Iceland.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 14-16 Box Office Predictions

While Spider-Man: Brand New Day should face no trouble spinning a third weekend atop the charts, two dinosaur centered features will attempt to make their mark at multiplexes. We have 1980s set The End of Oak Street with Anne Hathaway and Ewan McGregor and animated three-quel PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie debuting. They premiere alongside The Brink of War from Angel Studios (recounting the Reagan/Gorbachev 1986 Icelandic summit) and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

The End of Oak Street Box Office Prediction
PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie Box Office Prediction
The Brink of War Box Office Prediction

Buzz appears to picking up for Oak Street, the sci-fi adventure from acclaimed filmmaker David Robert Mitchell. While I wouldn’t discount an opening approaching $40 million in a best case scenario, the floor could be in the low 20s. My low 30s projection gives it a second place showing.

The third pic based on the Canadian kids TV series, I foresee PAW Patrol coming in a bit behind 2023 predecessor PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie. It could be in third place, but I’ve got it in fourth slightly behind the fifth outing for The Odyssey.

The Brink of War should land the five spot. The political drama may get beyond my mid single digits estimate, but I’ll play it safe.

As mentioned, Spidey is poised to make it three in a row. A percentage decline in the high 50s would mean a gross just north of $60 million and here’s how I have it all shaking out:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $60.2 million

2. The End of Oak Street

Predicted Gross $31.1 million

3. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $21 million

4. PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million

5. The Brink of War

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

Box Office Results (August 7-9)

Two new comedies struggled while Peter Parker and Odysseus continued to rule. Spider-Man: Brand New Day, after scoring the greatest domestic opening haul in box office history, had the third strongest sophomore weekend ever behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($149 million) and Avengers: Endgame ($147 million). The MCU saga took in $144.2 million. While that’s below my generous $153 million take, the ten-day total is a whopping $654 million.

The Odyssey held runner-up status once again with $31.7 million, on target with my $31.6 million call. The future awards player sits at $461 million after four weeks.

Rom com One Night Only starring Monica Barbaro and Callum Turner was third at the low end of expectations with $5.5 million. I thought it would nab $7.8 million.

Toy Story 5 was fourth with $4.2 million (I said $4.9 million) as the Pixar sequel brought its eight-week earnings to $470 million.

Finally, Super Troopers 3 fell way behind its 2018 predecessor in fifth. While part 2 made off with $15 million out of the gate, part 3 was good for only $4 million. I went with $7.6 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 7-9 Box Office Predictions

A history making weekend just occurred at the box office with Spider-Man: Brand New Day and The Odyssey breaking records. The blockbuster duo should easily rule the charts once again but we do have newcomers jockeying for third place. The Broken Lizard comedy gang returns in Super Troopers 3 while Monica Barbaro and Callum Turner headline the rom com One Night Only. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

One Night Only Box Office Prediction
Super Troopers 3 Box Office Prediction

We’ll get to the newbies in a minute, but let’s talk Spidey. Brand New Day, the 38th overall MCU pic and 4th franchise effort with Tom Holland in the title role, swung the best opening weekend ever domestically (more on that below). Edging out seven-year record holder Avengers: Endgame by $3 million, Day could be in contention for the highest second frame of all time. In order to do so, it would need to top the $149 million that Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned in 2015 (Endgame did $147 million in its sophomore outing). I’m projecting it’ll get there with a gross just north of $150 million.

Christopher Nolan’s epic The Odyssey should continue its fantastic run with a second place finish in the $30-35 million range.

Third place is more of a question mark and I’m predicting a photo finish between One Night and Troopers. I don’t see either of them greatly exceeding expectations. My $7-8 million take on both gives Night minor bragging rights in third.

Toy Story 5 should place fifth and here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $153 million

2. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $31.6 million

3. One Night Only

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

4. Super Troopers 3

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (July 31-August 2)

Spider-Man: Brand New Day astonished prognosticators and pummeled my prediction by nearly $100 million (!) as the MCU sequel swung $360 million. That’s way beyond my $268 million take and ahead of Endgame‘s $357 million record. Audience anticipation was clearly sky high after 2021 predecessor No Way Home as this looks to dominate August at multiplexes.

The Odyssey landed another $51 million in its third weekend to bring its gargantuan total to $395 million. That added coin, coupled with Spider-Man, contributed to the best box office weekend in history (unadjusted for inflation). My projection was slightly lower at $48.5 million.

Toy Story 5 was third in its seventh go-round with $6.7 million, a tad more than my $6.1 million call. The Pixar sequel has hauled in $462 million thus far.

Minions & Monsters was fourth with $6 million compared to my $5.6 million forecast for a five-week tally of $168 million.

Disney’s Moana rounded out the top five with $5.6 million (I said $5.7 million) for $115 million after four weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 31-August 2 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (07/29): Spidey prediction was raised from $251 million to $268 million. That’s means I’m projecting it gets the #2 all-time domestic debut.

After a year away from multiplexes, the Marvel Cinematic Universe swings back into theaters with Spider-Man: Brand New Day. The fourth entry in Tom Holland’s web slinger franchise seeks and is highly likely to achieve 2026’s largest domestic debut. My detailed prediction post for it can be accessed here:

Spider-Man: Brand New Day Box Office Prediction

The year’s biggest stateside premiere belongs to Toy Story 5 at $159 million and Spidey should have no trouble toppling that record. A better question is where it’ll rank all-time in the U.S. and Canada. Projections are rising among some prognosticators. While the $357 million hauled in by Avengers: Endgame appears safe, some believe #2 could be in danger. That’s held by Brand predecessor Spider-Man: No Way Home at $260 million. My number puts it in fourth (and fourth MCU overall) just behind Avengers: Infinity War ($257 million) and ahead of Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($247 million).

After two impressive stints in first, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will fall to second. While its sophomore weekend hold was dynamite (more on that below), I’ll project a mid-40s decline this time around due to Mr. Holland’s other adventure.

The rest of top six should be a close race between family fare Toy Story 5, Moana, and Minions & Monsters. Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $268 million

2. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $48.5 million

3. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

4. Moana

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

5. Minions & Monsters

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

Box Office Results (July 24-26)

The Odyssey continued its fabulous box office journey with a scant 27% ease in weekend #2. Adding $90 million to its coffers, the eventual Oscar contender has amassed $289 million as it breezed past my $74.6 million prediction. After a massive start, word-of-mouth is clearly assisting Nolan’s latest.

Moana was second with $10.6 million, in range with my $10.2 million estimate. The live-action version of Disney’s 2016 animated feature passed nine digits with $102 million after three weeks. There’s no doubt the studio was hoping for more at this juncture.

Hadestown: The Musical, a stage recording of the Broadway smash, kicked off with $10.2 million in third and ahead of my $8.5 million call. Initially set for a five-day engagement in theaters, demand has changed the release plan.

Toy Story 5 was fourth with $10.1 million (I said $9.7 million) for a six-week tally of $448 million. Animated competition Minions & Monsters rounded out the top five with $9.7 million compared to my $9 million take. In four weeks, it has taken in $155 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 24-26 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (07/22): Hadestown: The Musical, captures a live recording of the Tony award winning smash and has a five-day theatrical run beginning Friday. I did not do an individiual prediction post for it since I am still unaware of its theater count. That said, pre-sales look strong so I’m projecting it falls just under $10 million for fifth place. Under the right circumstances, it could be as high as second.

With epic hit The Odyssey entering a fruitful second frame and Spider-Man: Brand New Day hitting on July 31st, studios are avoiding any significant wide releases this weekend.

Christopher Nolan’s awards contender based on Homer’s Greek works exceeded expectations (more on that below). Along with critics, moviegoers are on its side with an A Cinemascore grade and 97% audience score on RT. The filmmaker’s Oscar-winning predecessor Oppenheimer declined 43% in its sophomore outing and I could see a similar result here. In fact, I think it might witness a smaller percentage drop. That would mean a gross nearing or at $75 million.

Disney should once again hold spots 2-3 with Moana and Toy Story 5 while Illuminations Entertainment’s Minions & Monsters places fourth. The grosses for the three family offerings could be close and that makes the rankings slightly tricky to call.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $74.6 million

2. Moana

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

3. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million

4. Minions & Monsters

Predicted Gross: $9 million

5. Hadestown: The Musical

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

Box Office Results (July 17-19)

As mentioned, The Odyssey began its powerful and likely long cinematic journey to grand results with $123.5 million. That’s ahead of my $106.2 million prediction and boasts the third highest domestic Nolan debut behind The Dark Knight Rises and The Dark Knight. It is also the greatest foreign start for any feature from the auteur.

Moana fell a steep but anticipated 58% to second with $17.9 million compared to my $19.1 million projection. The underwhelming two-week results for the Mouse House are $81 million.

Toy Story 5 was third with $13.7 million, a tad more than my $12.4 million forecast. Disney is not underwhelmed in this case with $429 million in five weeks.

Minions & Monsters was right behind in fourth with $13.6 million, on target with my $13.7 million estimate. The three-week tally is $136 million.

Finally, Evil Dead Burn was fifth with $4.7 million (I said $5.5 million) with a 65% drop in weekend #2. The total is $23 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 17-19 Box Office Predictions

Christopher Nolan’s eagerly awaited epic The Odyssey looks to dominate the box office charts this weekend. Perched in what has become the bankable filmmaker’s typical mid-July release date, it is the only new picture out wide and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The Odyssey Box Office Prediction

The range for The Odyssey is all over the map for the adaptation of Homer’s tale. On the low end we are talking $80 million while the rosiest expectations have it landing around $130 million. My projection gives it nine digits out of the gate for what should be a healthy summer run.

Holdover family friendly flicks should populate spots 2-4. Disney’s Moana did not have a splashy start (more on that below) and we could see a mid 50s decline to just below $20 million. Animated efforts Minions & Monsters and Toy Story 5 should follow.

After a subpar premiere, Evil Dead Burn is likely to round out the top five with a hefty decline typical for horror fare.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $106.2 million

2. Moana

Predicted Gross: $19.1 million

3. Minions & Monsters

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million

4. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

5. Evil Dead Burn

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (July 10-12)

A lot of parents and kids sat out the live-action rendering of Disney’s Moana. With mediocre reviews and quiet buzz, the musical adventure starring Dwayne Johnson brought in $43.1 million. With a reported $250 million price tag, that’s a huge letdown for the Mouse Hunt and well under my $54.3 million prediction.

After a less than anticipated rollout over the Fourth of July frame, Minions & Monsters dropped to second with $21.1 million. That’s in range with my $20 million call as Illumination Entertainment’s latest animated comedy declined 43%. The two-week take is $108 million as it is poised to become the lowest grossing domestic earner of the seven Despicable Me/Minions sagas.

Toy Story 5 was third with $19 million, ahead of my $16.2 million forecast. The fifth feature in the Pixar franchise sits at $404 million after four weeks.

Evil Dead Burn was not a hot commodity in fourth with just $13.7 million compared to my generous $21.9 million take. The third entry in this current iteration of Dead series came in well below the mid 20s debuts of its predecessors.

Young Washington proved to be a Fourth of July play with a considerable 64% plummet in its sophomore weekend. At $6.9 million, it failed to reach my $11 million projection. The two-week total is a laudable $33 million for the Angel Studios production.

Finally, Olivia Wilde’s acclaimed comedy The Invite expanded nationwide and was sixth with $5.7 million (I said $6.4 million). It has made $7.3 million when factoring in the limited engagements that started a couple weeks back.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 10-12 Box Office Predictions

Disney’s live-action version of Moana should top the charts, but it could face choppy waters in a marketplace with competition for kiddos and their parents. We also have Evil Dead Burn, the latest entry in that 45-year-old horror franchise and the nationwide expansion of Olivia Wilde’s acclaimed comedy The Invite. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Moana (2026) Box Office Prediction
Evil Dead Burn Box Office Prediction
The Invite Box Office Prediction

The Mouse House will easily achieve #1 but not bragging rights for Moana. My mid 50s forecast would cook up a disappointing start for Dwayne Johnson’s latest and that would mark the second lowball family flick debut in as many weekends.

I am referring to Minions & Monsters. Its unimpressive rollout (more on that below) was a Fourth of July surprise. If it eases in the mid 40s, the latest animated adventure in the series may have to settle for third.

That’s because Evil Dead Burn seeks a runner-spot slot as it hopes to post a $20M+ opening like its predecessors. I’m projecting it will get there.

Toy Story 5 and Young Washington should round out the top five and I have each declining in the mid 40s range.

As for The Invite, a mid single digits result in its nationwide expansion should mean sixth place.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Moana

Predicted Gross: $54.3 million

2. Evil Dead Burn

Predicted Gross: $21.9 million

3. Minions & Monsters

Predicted Gross: $20 million

4. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

5. Young Washington

Predicted Gross: $11 million

6. The Invite

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

Box Office Results (July 3-5)

With Minions & Monsters, Illumination Entertainment experienced the smallest debut of the seven Despicable Me/Minions movies with a far less than anticipated $37 million from Friday to Sunday and $62 million since its Wednesday bow. To put it mildly, I was more optimistic with respective estimates of $66.4 million and $106.5 million. The studio was obviously banking on more fireworks at the multiplex as this received stronger reviews than its predecessors.

Toy Story 5 slid to second after two weeks in 1st with $30.3 million, under my $35.4 million call. The three-week tally builds to $365 million.

Young Washington from Angel Studios took advantage of the holiday with its historical subject and earned $19.3 million in third. That’s on par with my $18.5 million take.

Supergirl crash landed once again in its sophomore weekend with a 77% fall to $8.6 million. I thought it might only crater in the mid 60s and went with $13.2 million. Summer’s biggest bomb has collected a piddly $57 million domestically.

Disclosure Day rounded out the top five with a 30% ease and $5.7 million. I incorrectly had Steven Spielberg’s sci-fi tale on the outside looking in and it crossed the century mark at $105 million after four weeks.

Obsession finally performed like a normal summer pic by decreasing 46% in sixth with $5.2 million (I said $6.8 million). The eight-week tally is $245 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…