June 18-20 Box Office Predictions

F9 is likely to give us the biggest box office premiere since late 2019 and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker… but that’s not coming until late next week. For this weekend, we could see another frame like this latest one where no picture reaches the teens. We have one newcomer and that’s action comedy sequel Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard with Ryan Reynolds, Samuel L. Jackson, and Salma Hayek reprising their roles from the 2017 original. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard Box Office Prediction

Bodyguard opens on Wednesday and I’m projecting its five-day count gets it high teens. That likely means low double digits for the traditional Friday to Sunday frame. That should be enough for it to open at #1 due to the disappointing returns for In the Heights this past weekend (more on that below).

We could see a showdown for the runner-up slot between A Quiet Place Part II and Heights. Both should experience declines in 30s range (there’s certainly the chance that the latter doesn’t fall that far due to solid word-of-mouth). Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway may stay in fourth position after its lackluster start and that would put The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It in fifth.

So as we await the return of Vin Diesel and his space bound vehicles, here’s how I have the top five shaking out:

1. The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard

Predicted Gross: $12.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $17.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. A Quiet Place Part II

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

3. In the Heights

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

4. Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

5. The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

Box Office Results (June 11-13)

In a surprise development, A Quiet Place Part II returned to the top spot in its third frame with $12 million (ahead of my $9.4 million forecast). I had it pegged for third and the soft debuts of the newbies prevented that. The critically acclaimed horror sequel made some history along the way by becoming the first feature in the COVID era to reach $100 million. Its current total is $109 million.

Back to those disappointing newcomers as In the Heights came in on the very lowest end of expectations with $11.5 million… or not even half of my $26.8 million projection. Despite mostly glowing reviews and awards buzz, Heights simply didn’t come close to maximizing its potential. There’s plenty of theories as to why (including the fact that its streaming on HBO Max and the challenge of audiences going to theaters for non-sequels), but it’s tricky for Warner Bros to spin this. As mentioned, its best hope is for sturdy legs in the weekends ahead.

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It dropped from 1st to 3rd with $10.3 million compared to my $8.7 million prediction. The 57% drop isn’t too shabby for its genre and it’s taken in $44 million during the first ten days of release.

Family audiences didn’t hop to the multiplexes for Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway. It placed fourth with $10.1 million. I was far generous at $15.9 million. Considering the 2018 original took in $25 million out of the gate, this is another hard one for its studio to explain away.

Lastly, Cruella rounded out the top five with $6.7 million (I said $6.3 million) for an overall tally of $55 million.

And that does it for now folks! Until next time…

June 11-13 Box Office Predictions

The two week spell of horror sequels topping the box office charts should be broken this weekend with the release of the musical adaptation for In the Heights and kiddie follow-up Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

In the Heights Box Office Prediction

Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway Box Office Prediction

I look for multiplexes playing Heights to not be a quiet place and I’m projecting a mid 20s rollout for what should be a #1 opening. This is despite Lin-Manuel Miranda’s co-creation also playing on HBO Max as the pic is the first real Oscar buzz contender of 2021. I anticipate a healthy female and Latino turnout.

The Rabbit sequel may not match the $25 million achieved by its 2018 predecessor, but I do think it’ll conjure up a mid to high teens posting for what should easily be a second place debut.

As for those horror sequels, The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It premiered on the higher end of expectations (more on that below). The previous direct predecessor, 2016’s The Conjuring 2, fell a precipitous 63% in its sophomore outing. Devil will probably suffer a similar decline and that could put it in a third place showdown with the third frame of A Quiet Place Part II. I actually believe Place could edge out Devil for that slot, but it should be awfully close. Disney’s Cruella will round out the top five.

And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:

1. In the Heights

Predicted Gross: $26.8 million

2. Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million

3. A Quiet Place Part II

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

4. The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

5. Cruella

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

Box Office Results (June 11-13)

I was too generous to the holdovers and too miserly with the newcomers this past weekend as The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It opened at #1 with $24 million. My prediction of $19.8 million was off the mark and I had it placing second to A Quiet Place Part II. Oops. The return of the Warrens and their supernatural investigations premiered on the higher end of expectations, but well below the $40 million plus starts of its two predecessors. That said, considering it’s also on HBO Max, it’s a solid haul.

A Quiet Place Part II slipped to second with a 59% decline and $19.2 million. I was far more optimistic at $28.4 million. While I was off, Paramount has to be pleased. The sequel has generated $88 million in ten days.

Cruella was third in its sophomore outing at $11 million (I projected more with $13 million). The Disney live-action remake stands at $43 million.

DreamWorks Animation’s Spirit Untamed was fourth with $6.1 million, galloping past my $4.4 million forecast. While I was more skeptical, this is about where it was anticipated to land.

Raya and the Last Dragon was fifth with $1.2 million (I said $1.6 million) and it’s up to $53 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 4-6 Box Office Predictions

The first box office frame of June brings a battle of horror sequels as Hollywood basks in the glow of a profitable holiday weekend. With A Quiet Place Part II surpassing expectations, it should be poised for a loud sophomore frame. The competition comes from The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, the eighth picture in the billion dollar franchise’s cinematic universe. We also have DreamWorks Animation’s Spirit Untamed, a spinoff of the Netflix series and kinda sorta sequel to 2002’s Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron. You can find peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It Box Office Prediction

Spirit Untamed Box Office Prediction

It feels a bit strange to predict Devil will experience the lowest overall opening of the entire series, but that’s where I’ve landed. I can’t help but wonder if Warner Bros would want a little more daylight between its debut and the sophomore frame of Quiet if they had a do-over. My forecast of just under $20 million should put it in second place unless Cruella has a remarkable hold.

As for Emily Blunt and company, it’s worth noting that the original Quiet Place fell only 34% in its follow-up outing. The sequel may dip a tad further, but a gross in the mid 20s to even low 30s is on the table. Cruella should be #3 in the lower teens range. I don’t have much faith in Spirit and my meager estimate has it in fourth. Raya and the Last Dragon should round out the top five.

So it’s horror sequels and family entertainment and different kinds of spirits in the top five this weekend and here’s how I see it all transpiring:

1. A Quiet Place Part II

Predicted Gross: $28.4 million

2. The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million

3. Cruella

Predicted Gross: $13 million

4. Spirt Untamed

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

5. Raya and the Last Dragon

Predicted Gross: $1.6 million

Box Office Results (May 28-31)

Originally slated for March 2020, moviegoers proved they were willing to wait for A Quiet Place Part II. John Krasinski’s critically heralded sequel posted a COVID era best Memorial Day weekend debut of $57 million. That easily outshines my $43.6 million projection. Studios must be rejoicing in this encouraging sign for the summer season ahead.

Disney’s Cruella with Emma Stone also opened to pleasing numbers with $26.5 million (ahead of my $22.7 million estimate). Despite being on Disney Plus as well for a premium price, parents and kids turned out for the Mouse Factory’s latest live-action update of an animated classic.

Holdovers populated the 3-5 slots and it was close. Raya and the Last Dragon was third at $2.8 million (I went lower at $1.6 million). Its total is $51 million. Jason Statham’s Wrath of Man took fourth with $2.7 million (I said $2.4 million) for $22 million overall. Spiral was fifth after two weeks at #1 with $2.6 million (under my $3.2 million prediction) for a $20 million tally.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 28-31 Box Office Predictions

In what is bound is to be the biggest box office weekend so far in the COVID-19 era, the Memorial Day frame marks the unofficial kickoff of the summer season at multiplexes. There are two genuinely high-profile debuts with John Krasinski’s horror sequel A Quiet Place Part II with Emily Blunt and Disney’s live-action remake Cruella with Emma Stone in the title role. My detailed prediction posts on the pair can be found here:

A Quiet Place Part II Box Office Prediction

Cruella Box Office Prediction

As I have said a lot recently, we are in unfamiliar territory. This is the first time in a long time where we have two major releases out in the same holiday weekend. Just as entities are opening up everywhere, the same can be said for theaters. I believe AQPII can top $40 million over its four day premiere with Cruella managing low to mid 20s. There is the lingering suspicion that either or both can outdo my estimates.

The rest of the top five will be filled with holdovers and they may experience smallish declines given the holiday. And with that, my top 5 projections from Friday to Monday for a weekend that Hollywood has been eagerly anticipating:

1. A Quiet Place Part II

Predicted Gross: $43.6 million

2. Cruella

Predicted Gross: $22.7 million

3. Spiral

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

4. Wrath of Man

Predicted Gross: $2.4 million

5. Raya and the Last Dragon

Predicted Gross: $1.6 million

Box Office Results (May 14-16)

As anticipated, it was the calm before the potential storming back of big grosses over this past frame. Spiral repeated at #1 in its sophomore outing with $4.5 million. It held up rather well for its genre ahead of my $4 million prediction. The overall gross for the gross out Saw sequel is $15 million.

Jason Statham’s Wrath of Man remained in second with $2.9 million. My estimate? $2.9 million! Total is $18 million.

Third place belonged to Angelina Jolie’s Those Who Wish Me Dead at $1.9 million compared to my $1.7 million take. The two week tally is $5 million.

Raya and the Last Dragon was fourth with $1.6 million, just under my projection of $1.7 million for $48 million.

Godzilla vs. Kong rounded out the top five with $1.4 million. I incorrectly had it outside my top five. At $96 million, the monster mash is inching ever so close to becoming the first $100 million domestic earner in the COVID era.

Finally, Demon Slayer was sixth at $1.3 million (which was my estimate) and it’s at $43 million overall.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

May 21-23 Box Office Predictions

The Memorial Day weekend of 2021 could well be a return to impressive box office grosses with the high profile unveilings of A Quiet Place Part II and Cruella. However, this preceding frame will not be memorable at all. There are no wide premieres on the slate and that means no picture is likely to even top $5 million (or even four).

Spiral, the continuation of the Saw franchise, surprisingly failed to generate much heat in its debut (more on that below). A drop of over 50% should be anticipated considering the genre, but it should manage to stay atop the charts for a second weekend in a row.

Holdovers will dominate the rest of the top five. Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon could shoot up from #5 to #3 depending on the dips for Those Who Wish Me Dead and Demon Slayer. Jason Statham’s Wrath of Man should hold tight in the runner-up position.

And with that, my top 5 take on a weekend where theaters will be a quiet place:

1. Spiral

Predicted Gross: $4 million

2. Wrath of Man

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

3. Raya and the Last Dragon

Predicted Gross: $1.7 million

4. Those Who Wish Me Dead

Predicted Gross: $1.7 million

5. Demon Slayer

Predicted Gross: $1.3 million

Box Office Results (May 14-16)

I was misguided in my belief that Spiral, which brings Chris Rock and Samuel L. Jackson into Jigsaw’s cinematic universe, would enjoy a more significant cut at multiplexes. The ninth entry in the horror franchise disappointed with $8.7 million, well below my generous $16.1 million projection. Moviegoers clearly weren’t all that interested in a return to this bloody series. A horror sequel that should gets genre fans back in their seats awaits.

Wrath of Man dropped to second with $3.7 million in its sophomore frame (I was close at $3.9 million). The action thriller stands at $14 million.

The Angelina Jolie thriller Those Who Wish Me Dead, which is simultaneously streaming on HBO Max, debuted in third with a dull $2.8 million. I was higher at $3.8 million.

Fourth place belonged to Demon Slayer at $1.8 million compared to my $1.3 million forecast. Overall tally is a sturdy $42 million.

Raya and the Last Dragon rounded out the top five with $1.7 million (I was lower at $1.4 million). Total is $46 million.

Lastly, another new thriller Profile couldn’t cut it as it earned a tiny $730,000 for a ninth place start. I said $1.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 14-16 Box Office Predictions

It’s been a minute since we have had four new releases to ponder, but that’s the situation this weekend as theaters continue to open their doors. The ninth pic in the Saw franchise Spiral, Angelina Jolie’s thriller Those Who Wish Me Dead, the Zack Snyder directed zombie fest Army of the Dead, and tech suspense flick Profile all open on Friday. My detailed prediction posts on the quartet can be found here:

Spiral Box Office Prediction

Those Who Wish Me Dead Box Office Prediction

Army of the Dead Box Office Prediction

Profile Box Office Prediction

Spiral should have no trouble scoring a #1 premiere. The question is: what kinda Saw bucks are we talking? I think this could certainly over perform (word of mouth is decent), but my estimate puts it in line with the last entry in the series – 2017’s Jigsaw. 

The runner-up slot should go to Ms. Jolie and her joint venture with Warner Bros/HBO Max. However, unlike the recent Godzilla vs. Kong and Mortal Kombat, a start north of $10 million (and certainly $20 million) seems unlikely.

Blogger’s Note: Dead prediction downgraded to $3.8 million

Jason Statham’s Wrath of Man should fall to third after its opening met expectations (more on that below). I anticipate his latest action tale to lose a bit more than half its audience.

Here’s where things get a little interesting. Army of the Dead is the first Netflix release to open on a fairly wide screen count (at least 600). If that holds, the potential for a $2-$3 million haul is feasible. It could even do more. What’s unknown at this juncture is whether the streaming giant will actually report its grosses. They haven’t in the past in their limited theatrical runs, but we are venturing into new territory. With this question unanswered, I’ll be doing a top five that includes Army and one that does not.

As for Profile, it’s hitting a large 2000 screens. Yet I suspect its low profile and my predicted $1.2 million forecast could prevent it from making the top five in either scenario.

And with that, here’s my two versions of this weekend’s top five:

1. Spiral

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million

2. Wrath of Man

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

3. Those Who Wish Me Dead

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

4. Army of the Dead

Predicted Gross: $2.5 million

5. Raya and the Last Dragon

Predicted Gross: $1.4 million

***If no Army grosses, Raya would move up to #4 and I’ll say Demon Slayer is fifth with $1.3 million

Box Office Results (May 7-9)

As mentioned, Wrath of Man took the pole position and met expectations with $8.3 million. How much did it meet them? It certainly met mine as my projection was $8.3 million!

Demon Slayer dropped to second with $2.7 million, on par with my $2.9 million estimate. Its three-week tally is $39 million.

Also in its third frame, Mortal Kombat was third with $2.4 million compared to my $2.7 million take. Overall gross stands at $37 million.

Godzilla vs. Kong was fourth with $1.9 million (I said $2 million). The monster mash continues to inch toward the century mark at $93 million.

Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon flew off with another $1.9 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It has earned $43 million.

Finally, the Billy Crystal/Tiffany Haddish dramedy Here Today showed zero staying power as it opened in seventh with $1 million. I was a bit more generous at $1.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 7-9 Box Office Predictions

The first full weekend of May at the box office brings us the Guy Ritchie directed action thriller Wrath of Man starring Jason Statham and Billy Crystal’s comedy Here Today with Tiffany Haddish. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:

Wrath of Man Box Office Prediction

Here Today Box Office Prediction

Considering the precipitous drops that Demon Slayer and Mortal Kombat experienced in their sophomore frames (more on that below), Statham’s latest should have no trouble topping the charts in the $8-9 million range. The 1000 theater count for Here Today should limit its potential, but I do have it managing to round out the top five.

Slayer and Kombat are unlikely to see the 70+ percentage falls in their third weekends and place 2-3 with Godzilla vs. Kong at fourth. And with that – here’s how I see the top 5 playing out:

1. Wrath of Man

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

2. Demon Slayer

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

3. Mortal Kombat

Predicted Gross: $2.7 million

4. Godzilla vs. Kong

Predicted Gross: $2 million

5. Here Today

Predicted Gross: $1.5 million

Box Office Results (April 30-May 2)

As mentioned, both Mortal Kombat and Demon Slayer fell hard after their $20 million plus premieres the previous weekend. Demon Slayer vaulted to first with $6.4 million compared to my $6.2 million estimate for a $34 million ten day total.

Kombat dipped to 2nd with $6.2 million (well under my $9.1 million projection) and it also stands at $34 million.

Godzilla vs. Kong was third at $2.8 million (I said $2.9 million) for a five-week tally of $90 million. It could still manage to hit the century club and it would become the first COVID release to do so.

The critically drubbed horror pic Separation opened in fourth with $1.8 million, a bit below my $2.3 million take.

Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon was fifth with $1.3 million (I went with $1.6 million). Total is $41 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

April 30-May 2 Box Office Predictions

It’s been a long time coming since my weekly top 5 box office predictions (the middle of March in 2020 to be precise), but I am happily returning to the format today! As proven by the larger expected debuts of Mortal Kombat and Demon Slayer over the previous weekend (as well as the huge returns for Godzilla vs. Kong), it is time to get back in the game!

There is only one new wide release this Friday and it’s the fright flick Separation. To view my detailed prediction post for it, click here:

Separation Box Office Prediction

Horror movies always have the opportunity to outdo expectations, but I’m not anticipating much here. My $2.3 million estimate puts it in a battle with Godzilla vs. Kong for the #3 spot and I’ll give the iconic monsters an edge.

The story of last weekend was seeing two pics (Kombat and Demon) gross over $20 million in their starts. You have to go all the way back to January 2020 for the last time we saw two newbies debut north of that. Kombat made off with $23.3 million (ahead of my $17.5 million forecast) while Demon took in $21.1 million (considerably more than my $10.7 million projection).

I do foresee both of them having precipitous drops in their sophomore frames. Godzilla vs. Kong, for instance, fell a steep 57% in its second outing and I believe the dip for Kombat could be over 60%. As for the anime hit Demon, that’s a genre in which stateside audiences may have rushed to view it. A drop around 70% would not be a surprise. That means no movie may top $10 million as we close April out.

That said, signs of a box office reemergence are all around and it is with pleasure (for the first time in over one year) that I give you my top 5 estimates for the weekend ahead!

1. Mortal Kombat

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

2. Demon Slayer

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

3. Godzilla vs. Kong

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

4. Separation

Predicted Gross: $2.3 million

5. Raya and the Last Dragon

Predicted Gross: $1.6 million

Tom & Jerry To The Rescue (?)

An age old cat and mouse contest is widening the eyeballs of box office prognosticators and theater owners courtesy of Tom & Jerry. The mix of live-action and animation reboot of a cartoon dating back to 1940 premiered simultaneously in multiplexes and HBO Max yesterday. This is how Warner Bros. is handling all their product in 2021 as we have already witnessed with The Little Things and Judas and the Black Messiah (and soon Godzilla vs. Kong). Reviews for the pic are certainly not rosy with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 23%. And with the uncertainty of the box office for nearly a year, expectations weren’t much either.

Let’s be clear: in non COVID times, Tom & Jerry heading toward a $13-$14 million opening would be considered pretty disappointing. How times have changed. When considering that millions of subscribers could simply cue it up from the comfort of home and with around half of theaters still shuttered, an estimated $12 million start is impressive. Should this number hold, it would mark the second biggest opening gross of the Coronavirus era (behind only Wonder Woman 1984).

That’s more than The Croods: A New Age managed over Thanksgiving and it legged out to over $50 million domestically. There’s no reason to think the iconic cat and mouse won’t do the same. This is also music to the ears of Disney as they prepare to release their animated Raya and the Last Dragon next weekend (along with a Disney Plus rollout).

However, this news really must be encouraging to theaters chains and owners. This is a sign that family audiences in particular will turn up for new product even if it’s available on the couch. As for material outside of that genre, the jury is still out and lots of attention should turn to the aforementioned battle of two other famous creatures (Godzilla vs. Kong) in one month. One thing seems clearer today: the outlook for theaters, while still in flux, got a little rosier.

September 4-7 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (09/02): On the eve of its premiere, I am upping my four and five day estimates for Tenet up to $30.3M and $36.9M, respectively.
It is quite safe to assume that Labor Day weekend has never been the most interesting box office frame before in a calendar year. Traditionally it’s a slow one when studios don’t bother to put out potential hits as the blockbusters of summer wind down and companies ready their fall product.

2020 has upended all of that due to the COVID-19 pandemic and Christopher Nolan’s Tenet is by far the highest profile release this holiday weekend has ever witnessed. After a delay from July, the twisty thriller with John David Washington and Robert Pattinson is finally set to invade IMAX and regular screens on Thursday (with previews slated throughout this week). You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/08/25/tenet-box-office-prediction/

Tenet rolled out in numerous international markets (as well as our neighbor to the north) this past weekend and it blew away expectations with $53 million. That bodes quite well for its U.S. bow this week. A four-day weekend in the mid to high 20s is my best guesstimate with upwards of $30 million when factoring in the Thursday tally. And if this projection changes, I have a feeling it will go up.

This juggernaut will easily rule the weekend. In fact, based on minimal competition in September, it will probably be #1 for the entire month. As for current holdovers, The New Mutants should dip to 2nd with Unhinged in third position. I expect the sophomore dip for Mutants to be more pronounced than that of Unhinged. 

And with that, I am moving from a top 2 predictions last weekend to a whole top 3 as the box office comeback kicks into high gear for September! All estimates are for the four-day long frame unless otherwise indicated.

1. Tenet

Predicted Gross: $30.3 million (Friday to Monday prediction); $36.9 million (Thursday to Monday)

2. The New Mutants

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

3. Unhinged 

Predicted Gross: $1.8 million

Box Office Results (August 28-30)

Fox’s long-delayed and critically drubbed The New Mutants was a trouble production well before anyone knew what the coronavirus was. Originally set for 2018, this title in the X-Men Universe finally limped into theaters. That said, considering the circumstances, its performance was right at about the significantly lowered expectations at $7 million. I said $6.9 million.

Unhinged dropped to second with $2.6 million and that’s on pace with my $2.8 million estimate. The Russell Crowe road rage pic has taken in $8.8 million in two weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…