Halloween is typically a quiet time at the box office and that should play out in 2026 with it falling on a Saturday. There are no significant wide releases other than Christmas at the Kringles. I didn’t do an individual prediction post for the Briarcliff release. The comedic horror flick is slated to release on approximately 1800 screens and I don’t think it’ll make enough cash (maybe $2 to $2.5 million) to place in the top five.
That leaves holdovers for what could be a close contest between current champ Clayface and You Can See Everything, which has held the runner-up spot for two weeks in a row. I have the former dropping in the mid 40s with the latter easing in the mid 30s.
After kicking off on the higher end of its expected range, Wildwood should remain in third with Street Fighter and Wicker in a battle for fourth and fifth position. Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Clayface
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million
2. You Can See Everything
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
3. Wildwood
Predicted Gross: $8 million
4. Wicker
Predicted Gross: $4 million
5. Street Fighter
Predicted Gross: $4 million
Box Office Results (October 23-25)
Sporting a reported $40 million budget (certainly small for the DC Universe), Clayface made $24 million for a slightly better debut than my $22 million prediction. The R-rated comic book adaptation’s results are alright considering the price tag as it hopes viewers will keep coming during the Halloween frame.
A24’s acclaimed doc You Can See Everything expanded wide and was second with $19.5 million. I went a little higher at $23.8 million though it can boast a better per theater average than Clayface. The probable Oscar contender has amassed $45 million.
Laika Animation’s Wildwood capitalized on rave reviews in third with $12.2 million. That’s still not great when factoring the $100 million plus budget, but it’s stronger than the lower forecasts including my own at $7.2 million.
Video game adaptation Street Fighter was knocked down from 1st to 4th in its sophomore outing with $8.5 million. That’s a whopping 72% plummet and under my $11.6 million projection. The two-week total is $46 million.
Wicker with Olivia Colman and Alexander Skarsgård built a commendable female following in fifth with $5.7 million. I went with $4.9 million.
Jessica Chastain’s horror pic Other Mommy was sixth with $3.9 million. My guess? $3.9 million! The three-week tally is $51 million.
Seventh place went to Sense and Sensibility as the Jane Austen adaptation made $3.3 million, not matching my $4.2 million call. The ten-day gross is an underwhelming $13 million.
Whalefall sunk to eighth in frame #2 with $3 million (I said $3.7 million). The whale tale is also at $13 million.
Last (and least), Taika Waititi’s Klara and the Sun had a dark debut in 15th (!) with just $701,000 and an average of under $800 per venue. Oof. I said it would do $2.3 million.
**Blogger’s Update (10/21): I didn’t do an individual post for Wicker with Olivia Colman, but with the news that it is debuting on over 1400 screens, my $4.9 million puts it in fifth place on my chart.
Clayface from the DC Universe was, until very recently, expected to easily rule the box office charts this weekend. That may be challenged from a previously unanticipated source. We also have Laika Animation’s critically acclaimed Wildwood and Taika Waititi’s far from acclaimed sci-fi dramedy Klara and the Sun starring Jenna Ortega premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Clayface could gross high teens for a floor to possibly mid to high 20s in the best case scenario. My estimate puts it right in the middle of the range in the low 20s. That’s far from impressive but not too shabby considering its reported $40 million budget.
As mentioned, that figure was thought to be enough to give it bragging rights at #1. Then You Can See Everything happened. Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s documentary about imprisoned Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes exceeded all expectations with a sizzling #2 debut on 855 screens (more on its opening below). It is slated to grow to around 2600 venues this weekend. I think the word-of-mouth could mean a low to mid 20s output in its sophomore frame. That means I’m giving it the edge for the top spot.
Wildwood, despite glowing reviews, may fall under $10 million for a fourth place start. As for Klara, my meager $2.3 million guesstimate might mean it struggles to even make the top 10.
Current champ Street Fighter should be third with a low 60s percentage fall while holdovers Sense and Sensibility, Whalefall, and Other Mommy all post similar grosses.
Here’s how I see it all shaking out:
1. You Can See Everything
Predicted Gross: $23.8 million
2. Clayface
Predicted Gross: $22 million
3. Street Fighter
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
4. Wildwood
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million
5. Wicker
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
6. Sense and Sensibility
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
7. Other Mommy
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
8. Whalefall
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
Box Office Results (October 16-18)
Video game based Street Fighter kicked off in line with expectations at $30.7 million for first, managing to outdo my $24.5 million take. I look for it to fade quickly.
A24 nailed down the second highest non-concert documentary opening in history behind 2004’s Fahrenheit 9/11 with You Can See Everything. With over $18k per screen, the doc (which no one knew existed until it surprise screened at Telluride) was runner-up with $15.6 million. That’s well beyond my $8.9 million prediction as its future looks rosy.
Other Mommy dropped to third with $8.2 million (a 70% plummet) compared to my $9.1 million call. The horror flick with Jessica Chastain sits at $44 million after two weeks.
Survival tale Whalefall flopped in fourth with $7.8 million, in line with my $8.2 million projection. Mixed reviews helped sink it.
Sense and Sensibility rounded out the top five with a respectable $7.2 million, ahead of my $5.3 million forecast. The latest Jane Austen adaptation may hold up fairly in subsequent weekends.
Finally, Verity was sixth with $6 million (I said $5.9 million) as the romantic thriller brought its three-week tally to $65 million.
Taika Waititi’s latest dramedy is Klara and the Sun and it’s out October 23rd. Based on the Kazuo Ishiguro 2021 novel, Jenna Ortega stars in the sci-fi tale with Amy Adams, Mia Tharia, Aran Murphy, Steve Buscemi, and Natasha Lyonne providing support.
After its premiere at the London Film Festival, negative word-of-mouth start peeking out. Sun now sports a 25% Rotten Tomatoes score with 27 on Metacritic. This will struggle mightily to find an audience. There is little hope this will approach the $33 million domestic gross that greeted the filmmaker’s awards player Jojo Rabbit in 2019.
My forecast puts this in line with Waititi’s 2023 predecessor Next Goal Wins. The soccer tale also whiffed with critics and underperformed with a mere $2.5 million in its opening. I don’t see a compelling argument for Sun eclipsing it.
Klara and the Sun opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million
It’s been seven years since Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit was an Academy favorite with an Adapted Screenplay win for the filmmaker and five other noms including Best Picture. His follow-ups have been Thor: Love and Thunder (one of the MCU’s lower rated entries) and soccer flick Next Goal Wins which was met with a shrug.
Klara and the Sun, based on Kazuo Ishiguro’s 2021 novel, is his latest. The futuristic sci-fi dramedy stars Jenna Ortega with a supporting cast including Amy Adams, Mia Tharia, Aran Murphy, Steve Buscemi, and Natasha Lyonne. It premiered at the London Film Festival with stateside distribution set for October 23rd.
Critics are taking a dim look at Sun. Rotten Tomatoes is at 27% with Metacritic even worse at 25. Judging from some reviews, this could end up on Worst of 2026 lists. Some write-ups are sparing Ortega from the incoming, but this will not be contending at any awards shows other than perhaps the Razzies. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Sporting an extra couple minutes of runtime from the 2019 original and primed to build anticipation for Doomsday, Disney/Marvel unveils Avengers: Endgame Encore on September 25th. The epic 22nd feature in the MCU is already the second highest grossing pic worldwide ever (behind Avatar) and would need a bit over $125 million globally to take the crown back.
The re-release immediately follows another record for the franchise. Spider-Man: Brand New Day just became the (unadjusted for inflation) #1 domestic earner of all time. Endgame, with its voluminous list of cast members from Robert Downey Jr.’s Tony Stark to the Chris triumvirate (Evans, Hemsworth, Pratt) to Robert Redford’s final screen appearance and so many more, should benefit from being sandwiched between New Day and Doomsday.
Estimates have this making anywhere from late teens to late 20s. I’m going more on the lower end of that spectrum. That might put it in the mix for the top spot depending on the sophomore frame for Resident Evil.
Avengers: Endgame Encore opening weekend prediction: $22.6 million
The Thanksgiving box office gives us two high-profile releases mixed with the leftovers as Disney’s Wish and Ridley Scott’s Napoleon come out Wednesday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
The Mouse House certainly wishes that Wish was getting better reviews and word-of-mouth. That said, the studio should have no trouble nabbing the top spot over the holiday frame. I’ve got the three-day in the low 30s and five-day in the mid 40s.
Napoleon with Joaquin Phoenix as the military leader is also generating so-so buzz. It is a viable option for adults looking a Turkey Day frame trip to the multiplex. A high teens Friday to Sunday might leave it in fourth position with a five-day approaching $30 milion.
After a premiere in the lower end of its anticipated range, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes may ease 50-55% in its sophomore outing. That might mean a drop to third as Trolls Band Together should see a more meager slide (20-25%) in its second weekend and stay in the runner-up spot.
Eli Roth’s slasher Thanksgiving could capitalize on its name and have a smaller than normal decline for its genre. If it eases 40% or so, it should round out the high five as The Marvels might not make the top quintet (more on its poor performance below).
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Wish
Predicted Gross: $32.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $46.4 million
2. Trolls Band Together
Predicted Gross: $22.6 million
3. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes
Predicted Gross: $2o.3 million
4. Napoleon
Predicted Gross: $18.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $28.5 million
5. Thanksgiving
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
Box Office Results (November 17-19)
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, as expected, ruled the charts like its predecessors. Yet it came in considerably below the four entries it prequels. While parts I-IV from 2012-15 all opened to more than $100 million, Ballad managed $44.6 million (a touch under my $48.3 million projection). It’s not a disaster considering the reported $100 million budget, but it’s definitely not a shining victory.
Trolls Band Together opened in second with a solid $30 million, surpassing my $26.7 million take. The DreamWorks Animated threequel should hold up well during the holiday season.
Thanksgiving cut a $10.3 million gross for third place as the fake trailer turned feature came in just behind my $11.4 million forecast. Not too shabby as the budget is listed at $12.6 million.
The Marvels fell from first to fourth with a disastrous second weekend after a disastrous first. The MCU bomb (first time you’ve ever heard it) plummeted 78% to $10.1 million. I was more kind at $15.6 million. With $64 million in the bank after 10 days, it’s questionable whether Captain Marvel and her friends even reach $100 million domestically.
Five Nights at Freddy’s rounded out the top five with $3.5 million (I said $4.5 million) to brings its four-week total to $132 million.
Finally, Taika Waititi’s oft-delayed sports dramedy Next Goal Wins couldn’t find an audience. It was 8th with $2.5 million compared to my $3.8 million prediction.
And that does it for now, folks! Have a great Thanksgiving!
A quartet of new titles enter the pre-Thanksgiving frame marketplace with prequel The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes expected to lead the way and DreamWorks Animation’s threequel Trolls Band Together in the runner-up spot. We also have Eli Roth’s slasher flick Thanksgiving and Taika Waititi’s sports dramedy Next Goal Wins out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
All four Hunger Games titles (released from 2012-15) debuted to over $100 million, but that streak is sure to end with Songbirds. It may only fly to around $50 million and I’ve got it achieving just a smidge under that.
Barring a significant Hunger underperformance, Trolls should settle for #2 in the mid 20s as it hopes to leg out impressively in future holiday weekends.
The Marvels experienced a historically low start for an MCU offering (more on that below). With a weak B Cinemascore grade, it could be headed for a catastrophic fall in the mid 60s or more in its sophomore frame (similar to The Flash this summer). That’s not the comparison it wanted and it likely means a third place showing.
I’ll say Thanksgiving carves up a little over $10 million and that would put it in fourth. The news is bleaker for the frequently delayed Next Goal Wins as it failed to generate awards buzz on the fest circuit and seems to have little heat attached to it. I’m putting it in sixth behind Five Nights at Freddy’s in weekend #4.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes
Predicted Gross: $48.3 million
2. Trolls Band Together
Predicted Gross: $26.7 million
3. The Marvels
Predicted Gross: $15.6 million
4. Thanksgiving
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
5. Five Nights at Freddy’s
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
6. Next Goal Wins
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
Box Office Results (November 10-12)
It was indeed the worst of times for the Marvel Cinematic Universe as The Marvels had the lowest debut of all 33 franchise entries dating back to the summer of 2008. Captain Marvel and team made off with a mere $46.1 million, right on pace with my $46.3 million (my projection kept dwindling in the week leading up to its premiere). That’s the worst MCU kickoff by a pretty wide margin as the previous record was held by 2008’s The Incredible Hulk at $55 million. A series that once seemed indestructible is no longer as comic book movies have had a tough 2023 in multiplexes. As mentioned, the B Cinemascore indicates crowds aren’t digging the product.
Five Nights at Freddy’s, after two weeks atop the charts, was second with $8.9 million (a bit ahead of my $7.4 million take). The three-week tally is up to $127 million.
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour was third with $6 million as took a heftier drop (over 50%) that I figured in its fifth weekend. The record setting concert pic total is $172 million.
In a surprising development, Priscilla was fourth in its sophomore go-round. The biopic increased its theater count and fell only 5% to $4.7 million for $12 million overall. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.
Killers of the Flower Moon was fifth with $4.5 million in weekend four. My guess? $4.5 million for $59 million in the bank.
The Holdovers expanded to nearly 800 screens and the Oscar hopeful made $3.2 million for sixth (I said $3 million).
Finally, faith-based musical Journey to Bethlehem got off to a rougher journey than I forecasted. It was seventh with $2.4 million and I thought it would double that figure with $4.8 million.
On November 17th, the true life sports dramedy Next Goal Wins finally kicks it in theaters after numerous delays. Filmed about four years ago, Taika Waititi directs with Michael Fassbender (currently pulling double duty in David Fincher’s The Killer on Netflix) as a down of his luck soccer coach assigned to American Samoa. Costars include Oscar Kightley, Kaimana, David Fane, Rachel House, Beulah Koale, Will Arnett, and Elisabeth Moss. Arnett’s parts, by the way, were reshot after the studio replaced Armie Hammer with him.
Unlike the filmmaker’s Jojo Rabbit from 2019, Goal did not generate any awards buzz after it hit the festival circuit. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a blah 51% as it arrives during the increasingly crowded November season.
It certainly seems like this will get lost in the shuffle and I’m not even confident this earns $5 million for its start.
Next Goal Wins opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million
For my The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songsbirds & Snakes prediction, click here:
Taika Waititi’s Next Goal Wins is finally coming out. Seriously. After multiple COVID delays and other postponements (like reshooting Armie Hammer’s parts with Will Arnett), the true life sports dramedy hits theaters November 17th and has been unveiled at the Toronto Film Festival. Michael Fassbender stars as a down on his luck coach tasked with leading the winless American Samoa soccer squad. Oscar Kightley, Kaimana, David Fane, Rachel House, the aforementioned Arnett, Uli Latukefu, and Elisabeth Moss costar.
Four years ago, the director/writer’s Jojo Rabbit was an awards player with six Oscar nominations and a victory for Waititi in Adapted Screenplay. Goal is being called a crowd pleaser based on Canadian reaction. However, the reviews are mixed with 71% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Based on a 2014 documentary, I doubt we’ll see Adapted Screenplay mentions this time or any other nominations for that matter. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The first July predictions for the 96th Academy Awards shall be known as the pre Barbie and Oppenheimer edition. They are eagerly awaited efforts from Greta Gerwig and Christopher Nolan, respectively, that are hoping to become giant blockbusters and awards players. July 21st marks the release date for both. When my next forecast arrives in a couple of weeks, reviews and buzz and financial numbers for the pair will be available.
Since June 25th (my previous update), there’s not been too much news. We have some new trailers including Bob Marley: One Love with Kingsley Ben-Adir as the iconic reggae singer. Interestingly all the promotional materials are advertising a January 12th premiere. I’m still assuming it will get a December limited release to qualify for contention. It is something worth keeping an eye on. I will say that I found the trailer to be somewhat lackluster. With the release date confusion, I’ve taken it out of my top 25 in BP while keeping Ben-Adir and Lashana Lynch in their acting derbies.
Frequent readers will know that releases dates are always shifting. I’m putting The Piano Lesson back in the mix even though it might not be out until 2024. You’ll see it emerge back into several competitions below.
Festivals are beginning to tease their lineups. Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers will open Venice in September while Taika Waititi’s Next Goal Wins is tapped for Toronto. Expect plenty more announcement in the coming days and weeks.
In Best Actor, I’ve elevated Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) to #1 over Colman Domingo. That puts Killers atop the charts in Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay. We’ll see how long its dominance lasts as other heavy hitters screen over the next few months.
As we await the Barbie and Oppenheimer reactions, here’s my speculation as to where everything stands for the eight top categories.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)
7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Poor Things (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Air (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)
12. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Barbie (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 12) (-2)
15. May December (PR: 15) (E)
16. Napoleon (PR: 18) (+2)
17. Challengers (PR: 17) (E)
18. Asteroid City (PR: 16) (-2)
19. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Rustin (PR: 20) (-1)
22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Ferrari (PR: 24) (E)
25. The Killer (PR: 21) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Bob Marley: One Love
How Do You Live?
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 14) (E)
15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
David Fincher, The Killer
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)
7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: 15) (+3)
13. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Florence Pugh, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Halle Bailey, The Color Purple
Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon
Claire Foy, Strangers
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mike Faist, Challengers
Josh O’Connor, Challengers
Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saltburn (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Air (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Rustin (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)
12. The Book of Clarence (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Drive-Away Dolls (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Barbie (moved to Adapted)
Bob Marley: One Love
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+4)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (-1)
