Tag: tom cruise

99th Academy Awards Predictions: April 19th Edition

Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.

In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.

As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.

My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.

We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.

And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.

So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.

When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.

You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Wild Horse Nine

4. Digger

5. Fjord

6. No One Cares

7. All of a Sudden

8. Fatherland

9. The Social Reckoning

10. Dune: Part Three

Other Possibilities:

11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew

12. A Place in Hell

13. A Long Winter

14. The Entertainment System is Down

15. Being Heumann

16. Cry to Heaven

17. Josephine

18. Werwulf

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

20. Michael

21. Paper Tiger

22. Saturn Return

23. Sense and Sensibility

24. Jack of Spades

25. Behemoth!

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

5. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf

15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares

4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

8. Mason Reeves, Josephine

9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa

10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

11. Sandra Hüller, Rose

12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

15. Amy Adams, At the Sea

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear

8. Dominic Sessa, Tony

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael

11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return

15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares

4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

Other Possibilities:

6. Sandra Hüller, Digger

7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

13. Gemma Chan, Josephine

14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

2. John Goodman, Digger

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

4. Colman Domingo, Michael

5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey

9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

11. Jesse Plemons, Digger

12. Channing Tatum, Josephine

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa

14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

15. Riz Ahmed, Digger

Oscar Predictions: Lee Cronin’s The Mummy

Lee Cronin’s The Mummy is unwrapped this weekend in theaters with Warner Bros. looking to turn out horror fans for the franchise reboot. From Evil Dead Rise director Cronin, the cast includes Jack Reynor, Laia Costa, May Calamawy, Natalie Grace, and Verónica Falcón.

This is the third take on the series in just over a quarter century. We had the three Brendan Fraser flicks that began in 1999 and the poorly received reimagining with Tom Cruise in 2017. Reviews for this gorier interpretation of the material are so-so reviews with 54% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 46 Metacritic.

Only the first Fraser adventure got the Academy’s attention with a Best Sound nod. There’s one race where Cronin’s pic has a fair shot and that’s Makeup and Hairstyling. That branch of voters showed genre love last year to winner Frankenstein as well as Sinners and (mostly surprisingly) The Ugly Stepsister. If WB mounts a campaign, it’s at least a possibility to make the shortlist and perhaps make the eventual quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Lee Cronin’s The Mummy Box Office Prediction

Lee Cronin’s The Mummy looks to wrap up an impressive debut when it drops April 17th. While the Brendan Fraser and Tom Cruise versions of The Mummy saga concentrated more on adventure, Evil Dead Rise director Cronin is bringing the horror to this James Wan/Jason Blum coproduction. Jack Reynor headlines the cast which includes Laia Costa, May Calamawy, Natalie Grace, and Verónica Falcón.

This is the second reboot of this franchise in the 21st century. The 2017 Tom Cruise one was a box office and critical failure (confession: i think it’s kinda fun). Warner Bros would love to see a repeat of the $24.5 million that greeted Evil Dead Rise over the same April time frame three years ago.

That is probably a best case scenario and I suspect it won’t reach those levels. Estimates have this is in the low to mid teens. I’ll say it manages to land on the higher end of that range.

Lee Cronin’s The Mummy opening weekend prediction: $17.2 million

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

We are a couple weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and they can be found here:

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

We arrive at Best Actor. When I did my first picks for last year’s race, I correctly named one of the eventual five nominees and that was Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme. In Other Possibilities, I identified Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another. At that early juncture, I did not list the eventual winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), or Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

For this premiere post, it’s probable that we already know one member of the quintet and that’s Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary. His film is a box office juggernaut and he has to carry much of the running time by himself. If he makes the cut, it would mark his fourth attempt at the gold statue behind lead noms for Half Nelson and La La Land and a supporting nod for Barbie.

He’s not the only star potentially in line for a fourth mention. The same holds true for Tom Cruise in Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu’s Digger. He won an honorary Oscar at the 98th ceremony, but is 0 for 3 in the competitive races are being up in lead for Born on the Fourth of July and Jerry Maguire and in supporting for Magnolia.

We aren’t finished yet talking about thespians getting their fourth nominations. Matt Damon contended for lead in Good Will Hunting and The Martian and a supporting turn in Invictus. His 4th try could come via Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey.

John Malkovich is probably going lead for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine after two supporting attempts for Places in the Heart and In the Line of Fire. He could make it in for the first time in 33 years.

For my fifth pick, I’m perhaps going out a limb and selecting Robert Aramayo (I Swear) who pulled off a BAFTA upset in Best Actor weeks ago. It comes out stateside in a couple of weeks and could have enough staying power for the BAFTA recipient to stake a claim. I’ll admit this a long shot projection, but hey it’s early right?

The speculation will continue in earnest during the weeks and months ahead, but here’s the first snapshot for Best Actor. Best Actress up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Tom Cruise, Digger

Matt Damon, The Odyssey

Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

Adam Driver, Paper Tiger

Andrew Garfield, Artificial

Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

Jaafar Jackson, Michael

Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Will Poulter, Saturn Return

Dominic Sessa, Tony

Sebastian Stan, Fjord

Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

32nd Actor Awards Winner Predictions

The ceremony formerly known as the SAG Awards is now the Actor Awards and the 32nd edition of the ceremony airs Sunday, March 1st. Kristen Bell returns to host a show that is tough to predict, especially in the supporting fields where no frontrunner has emerged via the precursors. Will the Screen Actors Guild help make it clearer or muddy it up even more?

Let’s walk through the six movie races with my thoughts and a winner and runner-up projection. I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with initial thoughts and how I did.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

Over the past 10 years, this ensemble award has matched the Academy’s Best Picture half the time
(Spotlight, Parasite, CODA, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Oppenheimer). I would definitely say the two pics with a shot to win are Battle and Sinners, the two BP favorites. While the former may have an edge with the Academy, my hunch is that SAG goes with Ryan Coogler’s sprawling cast.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

This category has matched Oscar 6 out the last 10 years. Actress is the only competition where the possibility of a sweep is still open. Jessie Buckley has triumphed everywhere else and I see no compelling reason why this guild would change that.

WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Runner-Up: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

The idea of a Chalamet sweep was halted when BAFTA unexpectedly rolled with Robert Aramayo in I Swear (who isn’t nominated here or at the Oscars). My hesitation to pick Chalamet has less to do with that and more to do with the fact he won SAG Actor last year for A Complete Unknown. I could see Hawke taking this prize for his showy role or the voters selecting Jordan. Ultimately I’m not pulling the trigger on the upset, but don’t discount the possibility. There is a 7 for 10 Actor/Oscar match over the past decade.

WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Runner-Up: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

Ugh… this is a tough one. There is no consistency among the precursors – Critics Choice went with Madigan, the Globes honored Taylor, and BAFTA picked Mosaku. One could certainly argue that Mosaku has the momentum and that if Sinners takes Best Ensemble, it increases the chances of a solo acting victory. Taylor could solidify her status as Oscar favorite with this award. This is essentially a three-way coin flip. Madigan could certainly emerge as this branch has shown the ability to honor the horror genre in a way the Academy doesn’t (see Demi Moore last year for The Substance). My gut says Sinners gets that one solo prize though I cannot stress enough that I almost went with Taylor. There is a 9 for 10 match with this branch and Oscar since 2015.

WINNER: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Miles Caton (Sinners), Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)

There’s a 9 for 10 match here as well and this is just as wide open as Supporting Actress. Critics Choice called Elordi as their winner, Globes picked Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value (not nominated here), and BAFTA went with Sean Penn. In this case, I am going with the BAFTA momentum though his costar del Toro might pose the realest threat.

WINNER: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners

Tom Cruise’s franchise is known for stunts so I wouldn’t bet against it.

WINNER: Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Runner-Up: F1

31st Critics Choice Awards Winner Predictions

This Sunday, January 4th, the 31st Critics’ Choice Awards air on E! and USA (with return host Chelsea Handler) and they should provide the first glimpse of various future Oscar winners even before nominations come out. The Best Picture winner at CCA has matched the Academy’s 6 out of the past 10 years including the last 3 in a row. As of late, the acting winners match at about a 3 for 4 ratio.

What’s the main storyline in my estimation? I believe there’s a Warner Bros showdown in BP between One Battle After Another and Sinners (that same logic applies to Director). The former from Paul Thomas Anderson appears to be the frontrunner, but I wouldn’t be surprised if CCA honored Ryan Coogler’s vampiric saga. It’s a close call though I’m going with the safer bet.

Let’s walk through each category with a winner and runner-up selection and some brief commentary.

Best Picture

Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams, Wicked: For Good

Winner: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners

See above

Best Director

Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

See above

Best Actress

Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

It is generally assumed that Buckley is the easiest pick of the acting quartet to forecast and that she is poised to sweep through the season. This is where it should begin. If there is a threat, watch out for Reinsve or Byrne.

Winner: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Best Actor

Nominees: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

DiCaprio could take this and I wouldn’t totally discount Hawke or Moura for the upset. However, the smart money is on Chalamet to triumph and potentially run the table.

Winner: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

This is a tough one. I suspect the Sentimental performers will cancel each other out and Mosaku is unlikely. CCA could actually honor Grande and I think she has a stronger shot here than with the Academy. Taylor is arguably the soft Oscar frontrunner and this show could kick off a sweep. Yet I’m going with veteran Madigan for her Halloween costume inspiring work in Weapons.

Winner: Amy Madigan, Weapons

Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

Another challenging selection as the voters could easily make this is a Sentimental victory for Skarsgård. It’s tempting to pick him, but I’m rolling with del Toro’s performance that inspired many a meme.

Winner: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Sorry, Baby, Weapons

Another possibility for Value though Sinners should nab this one as it doesn’t have to go up against studio competitor Battle.

Winner: Sinners

Runner-Up: Sentimental Value

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams

This is an easy call for Battle with Hamnet as the only potential spoiler.

Winner: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Foreign Language Film

Nominees: Belén, It Was Just an Accident, Left-Handed Girl, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sirât

CCA has a rule that if a film is nominated for BP, it doesn’t get on the ballot for this race (the same rule applies to Best Comedy). That’s why you won’t find Sentimental Value here. Accident is the favorite though I’m tempted to go with an upset since this marks its sole nod (not making Director or screenplay). Choice and Agent could win. Once again I’ll play it safe.

Winner: It Was Just an Accident

Runner-Up: No Other Choice

Best Comedy

Nominees: The Ballad of Wallis Island, Eternity, Friendship, The Naked Gun, The Phoenician Scheme, Splitsville

A dark horse pick like Friendship is within the realm of possibility and Phoenician is doable. That said, The Naked Gun remake got some deserved credit for bringing the laugh-a-minute spoof genre back and it might be rewarded for that.

Winner: The Naked Gun

Runner-Up: The Phoenician Scheme

Best Animated Feature

Nominees: Arco, Elio, In Your Dreams, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

I would argue that noms came out before Zootopia 2 turned into a massive box office juggernaut which gave it a better chance to win. The cultural juggernaut that is KPop probably would be my pick regardless.

Winner: KPop Demon Hunters

Runner-Up: Zootopia 2

Best Casting and Ensemble

Nominees: Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

Another showdown between Battle and Sinners and I’m going with the same result as BP.

Winner: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Young Actor/Actress

Nominees: Everett Blunck (The Plague), Miles Caton (Sinners), Cary Christopher (Weapons), Shannon Mahina Gorman (Rental Family), Jacobi Jupe (Hamnet), Nina Ye (Left-Handed Girl)

Caton’s work in Sinners should emerge though Jupe could threaten.

Winner: Miles Caton, Sinners

Runner-Up: Jacobi Jupe, Hamnet

Best Cinematography

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

Sinners with Battle right behind.

Winner: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Costume Design

Nominees: Frankenstein, Hamnet, Hedda, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

The CCA throwing a bone to Wicked is a possibility. The safer pick is Frankenstein.

Winner: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good

Best Editing

Nominees: F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, Sinners

The biggest story here was the surprise inclusion of documentary The Perfect Neighbor. It won’t take the prize that should be reserved for Battle with F1 or Sinners as remote chance spoilers.

Winner: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: F1

Best Hair and Makeup

Nominees: 28 Years Later, Frankenstein, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, Weapons, Wicked: For Good

This is the easiest race to pick Frankenstein in.

Winner: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good

Best Production Design

Nominees: The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

If Sinners exceeds expectations, it could take this. So could Wicked under the bone throwing scenario I posited in Costume Design. Again – bet on Frankenstein.

Winner: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good

Best Score

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

This one represents another battle between Battle and Sinners though the latter should triumph here.

Winner: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Song

Nominees: “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee; “Drive” from F1; “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

The Sinners track is viable but the omnipresent “Golden” is likelier.

Winner: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

Runner-Up: “I Lied to You” from Sinners

Best Stunt Design

Nominees: Ballerina, F1, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare

This would appear to be a pretty obvious occasion to honor Mr. Cruise and his team.

Winner: Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Runner-Up: F1

Best Sound

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirât, Warfare

I’m going with a slight upset. F1 is likely the smart play, but I’m saying CCA will give another race to Sinners.

Winner: Sinners

Runner-Up: F1

Best Visual Effects

Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Superman

This is Avatar‘s sole nom. It still shouldn’t have any problem winning.

Winner: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Runner-Up: Frankenstein

That means I’m projecting that these movies will generate these numbers of wins:

6 Wins

One Battle After Another

5 Wins

Sinners

3 Wins

Frankenstein

2 Wins

KPop Demon Hunters

1 Win

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Naked Gun, Weapons

Look for a recap of the ceremony with my thoughts and results on how I performed!

31st Critics’ Choice Awards Nominations Reaction

The Critics’ Choice Awards revealed their nominees prior to the January 4th airing. It is rightfully seen a decent Oscar bellwether whose Best Picture nominees recently match with around 8 or 9 of the 10 contenders from the Academy. Before I walk through each race with brief commentary (and how I did), I will note that CCA can be unpredictable in how nominees are nominated. Example – nominees in the Best Foreign Language Film, Comedy, and maybe Animated Feature competitions cannot also be up for Best Picture. That’s a newer development that I wasn’t aware of and it helps explain my poor performance in the Comedy derby.

As expected, Ryan Coogler’s Sinners led the way with 17 mentions and One Battle After Another as runner-up with 14. Both are Warner Bros properties. Of course, WB dominated the headlines for a different reason today due to Netflix’s apparent acquisition of the legendary studio.

Frankenstein and Hamnet were next with 11 nods apiece while Wicked: For Good and definitely Avatar: Fire and Ash struggled.

Overall I went 115 for 142 in my picks. Per above, 5 of those 27 misses came in Best Comedy (I’m still sore about it…). I did go 6 for 6 in 6 categories. Let’s go through the various competitions with my quick initial takes, shall we?

Picture

Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 9/10

Bugonia (which was my alternate) gets in over Avatar: Fire and Ash which managed just one (obvious) nomination. Get used to hearing this in the awards coverage, but One Battle After Another (OBAA) sure seems like the pic to beat unless precursors drastically shift the narrative.

Director

Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

How I Did: 5/6

My alternate Trier makes the sextet instead of Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident). I was pretty surprised Panahi (who’s picked up precursors) didn’t get in. BP should match Director and that’s good news for Mr. Anderson though Coogler or Zhao could pose threats.

Actress

Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

How I Did: 5/6

Seyfried who was, yes, my alternate is in with Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) not finding a home in the lineup. This a major miss for Erivo. I was leaning toward taking her out of my Oscar lineup in my next update and this could help solidify that hunch. As for the winner, Actress is generally seen as the easiest of the four acting races to call and it’s for Buckley.

Actor

Nominees: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

This probably comes down to Chalamet vs. DiCaprio with Moura as a possible spoiler.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

How I Did: 6/6

An unpredictable race where I managed to get the nominees right. It’s tough to project Grande taking this with her costar missing. Taylor might be the slight favorite though I wouldn’t discount Madigan.

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

How I Did: 5/6

I forecasted a slight upset with Delroy Lindo (Sinners) in and not Elordi, who was (of course) my alternate. Another tough call as either Battle boy is viable but Skarsgård could emerge.

Original Screenplay

Nominees: Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Sorry, Baby, Weapons

How I Did: 5/6

Sorry, Baby in over It Was Just an Accident in another significant omission. This should be Value vs. Sinners.

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

I’ll note that No Other Choice, like international counterpart Accident, had a somewhat ho-hum day. OBAA should be victorious.

Foreign Language Film

Nominees: Belén, It Was Just an Accident, Left-Handed Girl, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sirât

How I Did: 4/6

This is where I was unaware Value wouldn’t qualify since it was in the BP ten. It is out along with The Voice of Hind Rajab in favor of Belén and Left-Handed Girl. Accident might win despite the middling performance though Agent is a considerable threat.

Animated Feature

Nominees: Arco, Elio, In Your Dreams, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

How I Did: 4/6

Elio and In Your Dreams over Ne Zha 2 and Scarlet. CCA is unlikely to ignore the massive hit KPop. If they do, they’ll go with massive hit Zootopia 2.

Comedy

Nominees: The Ballad of Wallis Island, Eternity, Friendship, The Naked Gun, The Phoenician Scheme, Splitsville

How I Did: 1/6

Yeah… per my frustration above, I didn’t know BP nominees weren’t eligible. That’s why Phoenician is my only correct pick as I had BP contenders Bugonia, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, and OBAA. The other was Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery and it was totally blanked. I’ll lean toward Phoenician but Naked Gun and maybe Friendship could get this.

Casting and Ensemble

Nominees: Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

This is a WB showdown between OBAA and Sinners.

Cinematography

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

How I Did: 5/6

F1 instead of Marty Supreme (which missed a couple of expected tech nods). This may also be an OBAA vs. Sinners race though Train Dreams could spoil.

Costume Design

Nominees: Frankenstein, Hamnet, Hedda, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 4/6

Hamnet and Hedda in; Marty Supreme and OBAA out with Frankenstein and Wicked as the frontrunners.

Editing

Nominees: A House of Dynamite, F1, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, Sinners

How I Did: 5/6

The surprise here is Neighbor, which is seen as a likely nominee and potential Oscar winner for Documentary Feature, getting in (I had No Other Choice instead). Could the Academy notice? As for the probable winner – OBAA.

Hair and Makeup

Nominees: 28 Years Later, Frankenstein, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, Weapons, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Apparently I know my Hair and Makeup. Note this is the only nod for Machine (sorry Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt). Like Costume Design, Frankenstein and Wicked are win friendliest.

Production Design

Nominees: The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 5/6

Another potential Frankenstein/Wicked showdown. I had Avatar and not Fantastic Four.

Score

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

How I Did: 4/6

F1 (which had a nice day with 7 noms) and Frankenstein over A House of Dynamite and Bugonia. Think Sinners here or maybe OBAA.

Song

“Drive” from F1; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams; “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 4/6

“Drive” and “Clothed” make the musical cut over “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless and “Highest 2 Lowest” from the same titled film. Like in Animated Feature, the voters may go with KPop.

Sound

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirât, Warfare

How I Did: 4/6

Sirât and Warfare heard their names called over Avatar and Wicked: For Good (another notable miss). Don’t be surprised if F1 captures this.

Stunt Design

Nominees: Ballerina, F1, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Tough one but CCA might go with Cruise and company in his franchise finale.

Visual Effects

Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Superman

How I Did: 4/6

Finally, Avatar is nominated! And it will probably win though who knows considering the underwhelming performance. Fantastic Four and Wicked miss with Mission and Sinners in.

Young Actor/Actress

Nominees: Everett Blunck (The Plague), Miles Caton (Sinners), Cary Christopher (Weapons), Shannon Mahina Gorman (Rental Family), Jacobi Jupe (Hamnet), Nina Ye (Left-Handed Girl)

How I Did: 4/6

I had Aidan Delbis (Bugonia) and Actress nominee Chase Infiniti (OBAA) in this and not Gorman or Ye. I suspect this is between Caton and Jupe.

Below is the nomination count and I’ll have final predictions up shortly before the ceremony. Keep an eye on the blog this weekend for final Golden Globe predictions (out Monday).

17 Nominations

Sinners

14 Nominations

One Battle After Another

11 Nominations

Frankenstein, Hamnet

8 Nominations

Marty Supreme

7 Nominations

F1, Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good

5 Nominations

Train Dreams

4 Nominations

Jay Kelly, Weapons

3 Nominations

Bugonia

2 Nominations

KPop Demon Hunters, Left-Handed Girl, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sirât, The Testament of Ann Lee, Warfare

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, A House of Dynamite, Arco, Avatar: Fire and Ash, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Ballerina, Belén, Blue Moon, Elio, Eternity, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Friendship, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, In Your Dreams, It Was Just an Accident, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Naked Gun, The Perfect Neighbor, The Phoenician Scheme, The Plague, Rental Family, The Smashing Machine, Sorry, Baby, Splitsville, Superman, Zootopia 2

June 13-15 Box Office Predictions

A live-action remake of an animated hit looks to replace another live-action remake of an animated hit for box office supremacy this weekend as How to Train Your Dragon debuts. We also have the rom com Materialists entering the marketplace. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers at these links:

How to Train Your Dragon Box Office Prediction
Materialists Box Office Prediction

Dragon, which updates DreamWorks Animation’s 2010 original, is expected to have a fiery start. At best, it could approach $100 million. I’m playing it a little safe and projecting mid 80s for what would easily be a franchise best kickoff after three previous animated offerings.

Materialists with Dakota Johnson, Pedro Pascal, and Chris Evans could reach $10M+ and I’ve got it just over that for third place. It could debut anywhere between 3-5 as it’ll hope to leg out well in subsequent weekends based on solid reviews.

As for holdovers, Disney’s Lilo & Stitch will relinquish its crown after three weeks atop the charts. The Dragon competition could mean a 50% range drop.

Ballerina didn’t impress in its opening (more on that below) and I’m guesstimating a mid to high 50s slide in its sophomore frame. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning should remain in the high five.

Here’s how I envision it playing out:

1. How to Train Your Dragon

Predicted Gross: $84.3 million

2. Lilo & Stitch

Predicted Gross: $15.6 million

3. Materialists

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

4. Ballerina

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Predicted Gross: $9 million

Box Office Results (June 6-8)

Lilo & Stitch once again held bragging rights as the family tale held in first with $32.3 million, in line with my $31.9 million call. The Mouse House hit has amassed $335 million after three weeks.

That means my prediction that John Wick spinoff Ballerina would be #1 was off base. The action extravaganza with Ana de Armas stalled in second with $24.5 million, well under my $36.8 million take. It’s a rare financial misstep for a series that had yet to experience such a thing.

Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was third with $14.8 million, nearly matching my $15 million forecast as Tom Cruise’s eighth appearance as Ethan Hunt has made $149 million after its third outing.

Karate Kid: Legends was fourth with $8.5 million. My guess? $8.5 million! The 58% decline in its second weekend means the sequel has kicked up an unimpressive $35 million.

Final Destination Bloodlines rounded out the top five with $6.4 million and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. The four-week tally is $123 million.

That’s because I had Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme performing better. The auteur’s latest was sixth at $6.2 million. I went higher for the national expansion with $8.7 million. Counting its coastal release the previous weekend, Scheme stands at $7 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 6-8 Box Office Predictions

Ballerina, a spinoff of the John Wick franchise, hopes to step into the #1 spot this weekend and Wes Anderson’s latest comedy The Phoenician Scheme expands nationwide. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

Ballerina Box Office Prediction
The Phoenician Scheme Box Office Prediction

Ana de Armas headlines Ballerina (full title: From the World of John Wick: Ballerina) with series regulars appearing including Keanu Reeves. While I don’t have this approaching the heights of the previous two Wick installments, my mid 30s projection should be enough to top the charts.

As for Phoenician, it had an impressive per screen average in six venues this past frame. My high single digits estimate as it increases to around 1500 locations should mean fourth or fifth place with it performing in line with Anderson predecessor Asteroid City.

Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, the 1-2 finishers for the past two weekends, should each drop a spot with percentage dips in the mid 40s. I expect Karate Kid: Legends to experience a heftier decline in the mid to high 50s during its sophomore outing.

Here’s how I have the top five playing out:

1. Ballerina

Predicted Gross: $36.8 million

2. Lilo & Stitch

Predicted Gross: $31.9 million

3. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Predicted Gross: $15 million

4. The Phoenician Scheme

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

5. Karate Kid: Legends

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

Box Office Results (May 30-June 1)

Disney’s Lilo & Stitch continued to reign supreme with $61.8 million, a bit under my $66.4 million call. The live-action remake of the 2002 animated feature has collected $278 million in its ten days of release.

Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was runner-up with $27.2 million, on target with my $28.7 million forecast. Ethan Hunt’s final adventure stands at $122 million after two weeks in play.

Karate Kid: Legends debuted in third with $20.3 million which puts it in line with my $21.3 million prediction. The legacy sequel with Ralph Macchio and Jackie Chan premiered on the lower end of its anticipated range.

Final Destination Bloodlines was fourth with $10.9 million, ahead of my $8 million projection for a three-week tally of $111 million.

Finally, acclaimed A24 horror flick Bring Her Back brought in a so-so $7 million for fifth, not matching my $8.5 million call.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 30-June 1 Box Office Predictions

Karate Kid: Legends hopes to kick into high gear at multiplexes this weekend. We also have horror pic Bring Her Back seeking to scare up decent dollars. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

Karate Kid: Legends Box Office Prediction
Bring Her Back Box Office Prediction

The recent success of Cobra Kai on Netflix could assist with Legends performing well. Ralph Macchio and Jackie Chan headline the sixth feature in the franchise that began over 40 years ago. My low 20s estimate puts it in third.

Bring Her Back is the sophomore feature from the Philippou brothers after their 2023 summer sleeper Talk to Me. My high single digits figure puts it in the fourth just ahead of Final Destination Bloodlines in its third outing.

I have the top two slots still belonging to Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning after they propelled the Memorial Day weekend to its highest earnings ever. My guesstimates have both easing in the low to mid 50s percent range.

Here’s how I have the top 5 playing out:

1. Lilo & Stitch

Predicted Gross: $66.4 million

2. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Predicted Gross: $28.7 million

3. Karate Kid: Legends

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

4. Bring Her Back

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

5. Final Destination Bloodlines

Predicted Gross: $8 million

Box Office Results (May 23-26)

The Mouse House was in celebration mode as Lilo & Stitch achieved the largest Memorial Day weekend in history and surpassed the previous $160 million four-day record held by Tom Cruise’s Top Gun: Maverick. The live-action remake of the 2002 animated feature made $146 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the holiday frame while amassing $182.6 million counting Monday. While that’s under my respective predictions of $159.7 million and $196.6 million, it is still a scorching start for the Disney property as it will vie for highest domestic earner of summer 2025.

While Tom Cruise’s record was broken by Lilo, he set one of his own as Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was second with $64 million for the three-day and $79 million for the four-day. That’s right on target with my $64.4 million and $80.8 million projections as the eighth and allegedly final Ethan Hunt adventure set a personal best for the franchise. It needed to do so considering the reported $400 million price tag.

Final Destination Bloodlines was third with $24.1 million from Friday to Monday and that’s on pace with my $24.9 million call. The sequel has taken in an impressive $94 million in two weeks.

Thunderbolts*/The New Avengers was fourth with $12.2 million, a shade below my $14 million forecast. The MCU property sits at $174 million in four weeks.

Sinners rounded out the top five with $11.9 million (I went higher at $14.5 million) for $258 million in six weeks.

The Last Rodeo, the latest faith-based drama from Angel Studios, lassoed $5.4 million (Friday-Sunday) and $6.9 million (FRI-MON) in sixth. That’s a bit below my estimates of $6.4 million and $7.8 million.

Posting a commendable per screen average, critically lauded comedy Friendship with Tim Robinson and Paul Rudd was seventh in its nationwide expansion to just over 1000 venues. It made $4.5 million over the three-day and $5.7 million adding Monday. That’s slightly more than my $4.2 million and $5.1 million predictions. It now has $8 million total in its coffers.

Finally, A Minecraft Movie lost steam due to Lilo with $2.9 million in eighth. I was more generous at $4.9 million. The blockbuster has brought in a massive $421 million after eight weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…