Silver Linings Playbook. 12 Years a Slave. The Imitation Game. Room. La La Land. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Green Book. Jojo Rabbit. Nomadland. Belfast. The Fabelmans. American Fiction. What do those films have in common? They are the last 12 recipients of the Toronto Film Festival’s People’s Choice Award. Another commonality? Every one of them was nominated for Best Picture at the Academy Awards. Three (Slave, Green Book, Nomadland) won the top prize.
The surprise victor of People’s Choice at TIFF this morning is Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck. Based on a novella by Stephen King, it finds the writer/director once again adapting the legendary author as he’s previously done with Gerald’s Game and Doctor Sleep. Chuck is said to be more of crowdpleaser sci-fi drama. Tom Hiddleston, Mark Hamill, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Karen Gillan, and Jacob Tremblay lead the ensemble.
Chuck managed to outpace runners-up Anora and Emilia Pérez (both expected BP hopefuls) in Toronto. With the stats given above, Chuck has immediately entered the awards chat. That said, there are issues to consider before placing it in your BP ten.
First and foremost, Chuck has yet to acquire a stateside distributor. That will surely occur quickly. Yet we don’t know at press time whether it will release in 2024. If it does, it’s hard to argue with the power of TIFF’s biggest trophy. In 2023, American Fiction essentially became a contender in Canada and went onto 5 Academy nods with an Adapted Screenplay victory.
With 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and 66 on Metacritic, Flanagan’s flick is generating nice notices. Frankly, though, I wasn’t really considering it a true contender until this TIFF announcement.
So what are Chuck‘s prospects now? In addition to Picture, Director and especially Adapted Screenplay are in the mix. If there’s an acting play, it might be Luke Skywalker himself Mark Hamill in supporting. If it continues to gain momentum, Editing, Original Score, and Visual Effects might be down ballot categories to keep an eye on. Toronto has potentially brought good luck to Chuck. It hasn’t been mentioned in my forecasts before. This will change at the next update later this week. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Toronto Film Festival has concluded its 2024 business with the reveal of its People’s Choice Award and the 1st and 2nd runners-up for the prize. This announcement is eagerly awaited by Oscar prognosticators and for good reason. Since the Academy expanded beyond 5 nominees for Best Picture (it now stands at a firm ten but has been 8 or 9 in other years), the People’s Choice recipient has received a BP nod in 14 of those 15 years. The exception was 2011 when Where Do We Go Now? was the victor. Therefore the past 12 winners were Oscar BP contenders.
In 2023, we saw Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction vaulted into contention and ended up with five total nominations, taking the statue for Adapted Screenplay. In 2010, there was only one runner-up. Since 2009, that means 44 features have been People’s Choice selections or runner-ups. Of those 44, 25 went onto Academy nominations for BP. This includes Best Picture winners The King’s Speech, Argo, 12 Years a Slave, Spotlight, Green Book, Parasite, and Nomadland. In recent years, it’s become the norm for 2 of the 3 movies that Toronto names to make the Oscar ten. In addition to Fiction last year, The Holdovers was 1st runner-up.
All that context is pretext to an obvious point… this is a key precursor to the Oscars. Much speculation centered on Sean Baker’s Anora taking TIFF’s highest honor. The acclaimed film already picked up the Palme d’Or at Cannes and is seen as a threat to not only be nominated for Best Picture, but win. Mikey Madison is among the frontrunners for Best Actress. Instead it was 2nd runner-up. That third place showing, by the way, has been shared by Spotlight, Call Me by Your Name, Roma, Parasite, and The Power of the Dog.
First runner-up went to another Cannes premiere: Jacques Audiard’s musical crime flick Emilia Pérez. It’s also widely assumed to be a BP hopeful a few months down the line with potential acting nominations for Karla Sofia Gascón, Zoe Saldaña, and Selena Gomez. Recent 1st runners-up include Argo, Marriage Story, and the aforementioned The Holdovers.
Had Anora or Pérez gotten first place, no one would have been surprised. Same logic applies to Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night which was picked by some to win, place, or show. The actual recipient was unexpected and it’s The Life of Chuck from Mike Flanagan. It joins fellow People’s Choice honorees Precious, The King’s Speech, Silver Linings Playbook, The Imitation Game, Room, La La Land, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Green Book, Jojo Rabbit, Nomadland, Belfast, and The Fabelmans.
Mr. Flanagan is best known for his contributions to the horror genre. That includes adaptations of Stephen King novels Gerald’s Game and Doctor Sleep. His largest claim to fame is his show running work on Netflix series The Haunting of Hill House, Midnight Mass, and The Fall of the House of Usher.
Chuck is a departure… sort of. It’s adapted from a Stephen King novella, but is more of a sci-fi effort. Reviews were solid (87% on Rotten Tomatoes and 66 on Metacritic). However, this was not really seen as a BP contender. Distribution and the release date are still influx. There’s no trailer.
Its awards narrative has certainly changed as of today. You can expect the People’s Choice champ starring Tom Hiddleston, Mark Hamill, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Karen Gillan, and Jacob Tremblay to pick up a distributor in a hurry. An awards campaign will surely follow. I’ve yet to even consider Chuck in my top 25 possibilities for BP. That won’t be the case when I pen my next update. Even if it’s not ultimately up for BP, Adapted Screenplay seems like a strong possibility now. Make no mistake. Toronto has given unanticipated life to Chuck.
Jason Reitman had a one-two punch of consecutive Best Picture nominees with Juno and Up in the Air in 2007 and 2009. Some follow-ups generated solid reviews (Young Adult, Tully) while others (Labor Day, The Front Runner) drew more mixed reactions. None have received significant awards buzz in the past decade and a half. Will that change with Saturday Night?
The Sony Pictures dramedy is slated for release on October 11th which is the 49th anniversary of the iconic sketch show it celebrates. This recounts the chaotic moments leading up to the premiere of Saturday Night Live. Gabriel LaBelle (who essentially played young Steven Spielberg in 2022’s The Fabelmans) is 30-year-old Lorne Michaels. The extensive supporting cast (some playing 1975 legends with others as future legends) includes Cooper Hoffman, Rachel Sennott, Cory Michael Smith, Ella Hunt, Dylan O’Brien, Emily Fairn, Matt Wood, Lamorne Morris, Kim Matula, Finn Wolfhard, Nicholas Braun (as Andy Kaufman and Jim Henson), Andrew Barth Feldman, Willem Dafoe, Matthew Rhys, J.K. Simmons, and Jon Batiste.
Having just played Telluride and hitting Toronto shortly, early word-of-mouth is primarily on the fresh side. There are some high profile reviews of the thumbs down variety. I would say Saturday Night stands a shot at a Best Picture nomination, but it is a coin flip at the moment as we await how competitors pan out. Down ballot categories like Costume Design and (especially) Film Editing could occur especially if it sneaks into BP.
As for the cast, LaBelle is getting quality ink. Yet some of the strongest notices are going to Sennott as writer Rosie Schuster and Smith as Chevy Chase. I’m skeptical any of the performers break into their respective categories though the SAG Awards could certainly nominate the cast in their Ensemble race. Speaking of other shows, the Golden Globes could put it up for Musical/Comedy assuming Sony campaigns for it there and LaBelle could make the Actor (Musical/Comedy) quintet.
At the Academy Awards, there is almost always a picture or two that is up solely for its screenplay. This is a distinct possibility with Saturday Night and its original screenplay from Reitman and Gil Kenan. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Is Saturday Night alright for Oscar? Jason Reitman’s latest picture chronicles the premiere of SNL back in 1975. The surprise announcement this week is that it has wrapped production and will hit theaters on October 11th. That’s exactly 49 years after the iconic NBC sketch show debuted.
One week after the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown joined the 2024 calendar, Saturday will try to get into the Academy mix. The most likely categories for the Sony release are significant ones – Picture, Director, and especially Original Screenplay. The cast also presents some possibilities like Gabriel LaBelle (from The Fabelmans) as Lorne Michaels. I’m assuming he’d be campaigned for in lead Actor though nothing is confirmed. In Supporting Actress, let’s see if Rachel Sennott as writer Rosie Shuster and Ella Hunt as legendary cast member Gilda Radner get in the convo.
I am not elevating Saturday Night into my predictions for any race yet, but you’ll see it in the possibilities section.
The Piano Lesson gets a boost this week as it is back in BP over The Seed of the Sacred Fig. Piano‘s Samuel L. Jackson also returns to #1 in Supporting Actor with his costar Danielle Deadwyler back in the quintet for Supporting Actress. Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters) drops.
Mohammad Rasolouf in Director also falls out for Seed in favor of Anora‘s Sean Baker. Pedro Almodóvar’s The Room Next Door shifts from Original to Adapted Screenplay and makes my cut with Dune: Part Two on the outside looking in.
I’ll also note that Conclave is now 2nd in my projections for total nominations (9) behind Dune‘s 10.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
6. Anora (PR: 6) (E)
7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Room Next Door (PR: 19) (+4)
16. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (-2)
17. Maria (PR: 17) (E)
18. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
19. A Real Pain (PR: 22) (+3)
20. The End (PR: 16) (-4)
21. A Different Man (PR: 23) (+2)
22. Hard Truths (PR: 20) (-2)
23. The Fire Inside (PR: 21) (-2)
24. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 18) (-6)
25. Here (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Wicked
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+6)
10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)
11. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (E)
7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)
9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)
11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)
14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (E)
15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Andrè Holland, The Actor (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (E)
13. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 13) (E)
14. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: 12) (E)
13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (E)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)
15. Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kathy Burke, Blitz
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (+1)
10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Paul Raci, Sing Sing (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)
4. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. The End (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Dídi (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Challengers (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (E)
14. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Room Next Door (moved to Adapted Screenplay)
All We Imagine as Light
I Saw the TV Glow
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. Queer (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay
Other Possibilities:
6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Nightbitch (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Hit Man (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Here
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emila Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)
3. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Uprising (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Caught by the Tides (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Simon of the Mountain
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Flow (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Transformers One (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Orion and the Dark
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)
4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Other Land (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)
9. Union (PR: 9) (E)
10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Frida
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Queer (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anora (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (-2)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Maria
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Blitz (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)
4. A Different Man (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Conclave (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Blitz (PR: 7) (E)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Challengers (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Here
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+3)
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 10) (+3)
8. TBD from Wicked (PR: 3) (-5)
9. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Wicked (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (E)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Twisters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Wicked (PR: 7) (-2)
10. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (E)
4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)
8. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
That equates to these movies nabbing these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Conclave
8 Nominations
Blitz, Emilia Pérez
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer, Sing Sing
4 Nominations
Nosferatu
3 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Wicked
2 Nominations
A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, Piece by Piece, The Room Next Door, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
The September triumvirate of high profile festivals (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) is in the rearview mirror. The New York Film Festival is happening now though there’s not a huge number of pictures that didn’t already premiere at earlier fests. One that did – Garth Davis’s Foe – proved to be an awards bust. With a 21% Rotten Tomatoes score, you can assume this is the last time it will be mentioned in these prediction posts.
Truth be told, there are just a few Oscar bait titles left to screen. They include The Color Purple, Napoleon, Disney’s Wish, The Iron Claw, and Wonka (in some tech races).
I thought this might be an opportune time to tell you how my 2022 predictions from this same time of year stood up. Last year, when I did forecasts for the 95th Academy Awards on October 5th, it yielded an impressive 8 of the eventual nominees (winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking). The other two nominees (Avatar: The Way of Water and Elvis) were both listed in other possibilities.
For Best Director, I correctly called three of the five (winners the Daniels for Everything Everywhere, Todd Field for Tár, Steven Spielberg with The Fabelmans). Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Rüben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) were identified as other possibilities.
The #3 also applied to Actress as I named winner Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everything) along with Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans). Ana de Armas (Blonde) was tagged under other possibilities while Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) was not yet on the radar screen. Same goes for Best Actor (3) where I had winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Austin Butler (Elvis), and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Bill Nighy (Living) in othjer possibilities. Paul Mescal (Aftersun) was outside of the top ten.
In the supporting derbies, my 2022 early October projections gave you only two of the eventual five in Supporting Actress with Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Hong Chau (The Whale). Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere) was an other possibility. The winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere) was not yet in my listed ten nor was fellow nominee Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever). For Supporting Actor, I correctly had three with winner Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere) and Banshees costars Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) was in other possibilities while Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) had not entered my mix.
Whew. For those keeping score, that means I predicted 22 of the 35 movies, directors, and actors in those six races at this same juncture in 2022.
My first October projections contain a few alterations from my final September write-up. As much as I don’t like taking Toronto’s People’s Choice Award victor American Fiction out of my BP lineup, I’m doing so with The Zone of Interest back in that list. On the same note, Zone‘s filmmaker Jonathan Glazer returns to my directing quintet with Celine Song (Past Lives) on the outside looking in.
Greta Lee (Past Lives) jumps back in Actress with Margot Robbie (Barbie) omitted. However, Lee’s costar John Magaro is dropped from Supporting Actor in favor of Charles Melton (May December).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. American Fiction (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Air (PR: 12) (E)
13. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)
15. Origin (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)
7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, Amerian Fiction (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Teo Yoo, Past Lives
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (E)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)
8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4 ) (E)
5. Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Hit Man (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Origin (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. About Dry Grasses (PR: 5) (-1)
5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Settlers (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Delinquents (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Promised Land (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Teachers’ Lounge
Io capitano
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
10. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“High Life” from Flora and Son
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Napoleon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ferrari (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The Killer
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Creator (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 8) (-2)
That means I’m projecting these movies will garner these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
10 Nominations
Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
6 Nominations
The Color Purple, Maestro
5 Nominations
Past Lives
4 Nominations
The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall
2 Nominations
Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
About Dry Grasses, All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, The Killer, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol
Last year, the Best Supporting Actress race was upended when it was announced that Michelle Williams of Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans would be campaigned for in the lead Actress competition. Williams was seen as the strong frontrunner in the supporting field. Her placement in the more crowded Actress derby took her from a predicted winner to a question mark as to whether she’d even make the final five. She did, but lost to Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once and she was never looked at as a threat to win. Her omission from the supporting category made it a wide open race where Jamie Lee Curtis (also from Everything Everywhere) eventually prevailed.
And now… history repeats itself. In each one of my predictions for the 96th Academy Awards this year, I have had Lily Gladstone listed #1 in Supporting Actress for Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon. Ever since it premiered at Cannes (before its October 20th domestic bow), reviews have indicated she’s a standout performance among heavy hitters like Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert De Niro, and Jesse Plemons. Like Williams, she was a heavy favorite for supporting. And just like Williams, there’s now an announcement that Gladstone will vie for Best Actress.
What’s it mean? Let’s start with Supporting Actress. With Gladstone out, it is now an uncertain race with no frontrunner. One could emerge when The Color Purple premieres with either Danielle Brooks (who I’ve consistently had ranked second) or Taraji P. Henson (who’s often been third). It potentially opens the door for Emily Blunt to not only nab her first nom for Oppenheimer, but maybe make it to the stage. It also increases the chances for hopefuls like Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers), Viola Davis (Air), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), or Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) to get in.
As for Best Actress, I believe Gladstone ends up in the grouping. Yet she might not be the automatic favorite like she was in supporting. Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) are serious competitors. Fantasia Barrino from The Color Purple could be as well. And there’s Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Annette Bening (Nyad), Natalie Portman (May December), and Cailee Spaeney (Priscilla) to consider. In other words (like Williams), Gladstone has made her road to gold tougher though still achievable.
When I update my Oscar predictions this weekend, you can expect to see Gladstone in the Actress five. Whether she’s #1 like she’s been in supporting is very much still in question.
We are caught up and have reached 2022 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?
For the ceremony that occurred less than three months ago, we know Everything Everywhere All at Once would land a spot. To say it was the big winner on Oscar night is an understatement. The multi-genre hit made off with 7 trophies – Picture, Director (Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert), Actress (Michelle Yeoh), Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis), Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan), Original Screenplay (also the Daniels), and Film Editing. It was nominated for four more – Supporting Actress (Stephanie Hsu), Costume Design, Original Score, and Original Song.
Picking the other 4 of 9 for the final five was no easy feat, but here’s my best speculation!
Well… almost. Before we get to that, this particular series will now become a yearly occurrence where I give you my final five in the coming years. However, stay tuned for the reverse of these write-ups. Starting soon and beginning with 2008 (the last year there were five nominees), I’ll give you speculation on which pictures I believe would be nominated if there were ten contending films.
Back to the Oscars that just happened…
All Quiet on the Western Front
Edward Berger’s World War I epic was one of the easiest picks on Oscar night to win the International Feature Film trophy. It also took home Cinematography, Original Score, and Production Design and received noms for Adapted Screenplay, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects. The quartet of victories was second best to Everything.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes, despite surprising misses for its Director and in Film Editing. I still think the 9 nine total nods (also second best to Everything) puts it in the quintet.
Avatar: The Way of Water
As anticipated, James Cameron’s long-awaited sequel to the 2009 box office behemoth was a victor in Visual Effects. It also got nods in Production Design and Sound.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Water logged less than half of its predecessor’s nine mentions and Cameron himself didn’t make the directorial derby.
The Banshees of Inisherin
Martin McDonagh’s black comedy clocked nine nominations with the others being for the director and screenwriter (both McDonagh), Actor (Colin Farrell), two Supporting Actor bids (Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan), Supporting Actress (Kerry Condon), Film Editing, and Original Score. It ended up going 0 for 8.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. The winning percentage of zero was due to the Everything love, but it still would’ve found a slot among the five.
Elvis
Baz Luhrmann’s lavish musical biopic of The King shimmied to 8 nods including Actor (Austin Butler), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, and Sound. Like Banshees, it left the building with no statues.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Had Elvis garnered wins in some of the below-the-line races (which it was expected to) or for Butler, I may have a different answer in this case. Yet it wasn’t to be.
The Fabelmans
Steven Spielberg’s most personal work to date saw 7 nominations for the director and screenwriter (both Spielberg with Tony Kushner co-scribing), Actress (Michelle Williams), Supporting Actor (Judd Hirsch), Original Score, and Production Design. In what’s starting to sound like a broken record, it failed to capitalize on any of its nominations.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes though I struggled with this one. Missing editing (a good harbinger of a BP nod) was a surprise and same goes for the cinematography. Ultimately the power of Spielberg might’ve reserved this for the fourth or fifth spot.
Tár
Todd Field’s profile of a complicated EGOT winner generated six mentions for its director and screenwriter (both Field), Actress (Cate Blanchett), Cinematography, and Film Editing. Once again – any potential victory was thwarted by Everything as it went 0/6.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. I must say that I really went back and forth on this (more so than with The Fabelmans). Yet it managed to score inclusions in the precursors that matter most and it gets the edge for it.
Top Gun: Maverick
The moneymaking monolith of 2022 had a total of six nominations with Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Original Song, Sound, and Visual Effects on the menu. It emerged victorious in Sound (Everything and Western Front didn’t take them all).
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. I went back and forth between this and Tár for #5. The latter got in where it matters. Maverick, despite being the people’s champ, missed key races like Director (Joseph Kosinski), Actor (Tom Cruise), and Cinematography.
Triangle of Sadness
The Palme d’or recipient at Cannes was awarded an unexpected directing nod for Ruben Östlund and an expected screenwriting mention for him. The count for was 0 for 3.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Östlund’s surprise nomination for his behind the camera was a pleasant surprise, but a final five slot would be an even bigger shocker.
Women Talking
Director Sarah Polley won for her Adapted Screenplay and that marks Women‘s only other nom. That means the sprawling cast that included Rooney Mara, Claire Foy, and Jessie Buckley were all left out.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Despite the screenplay award, the aforementioned facts make this the easiest of the bunch to leave out (especially considering its two nods were the smallest of the group).
And that means my 2022 final five is:
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Stay tuned for the inverse of these posts beginning with 2008!
If you missed my write-ups in the series covering 2009-21, you can access them right here:
As the month of May closes out, we arrive at my post Cannes forecast for the 96th Academy Awards! There were heavy hitters premiering in the south of France and buzz to discuss for several of them.
One year ago, Triangle of Sadness took the Palme d’Or (the fest’s top prize) and it eventually became a Best Picture contender at the Oscars. Ruben Östlund, Triangle‘s director who served as this year’s jury president, was also nominated for his behind the camera work.. In 2023, Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall won the biggest honor. The French courtroom drama established itself as a major factor in International Feature Film and it is feasible that it could nab a slot in the eventual BP ten.
Other films that solidified their statuses as Academy bait? We start with Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon. The three and a half hour epic maintains its #1 position in Picture, Director, Supporting Actress (Lily Gladstone), and Supporting Actor after many raves at Cannes. However, the Supporting Actor in first is Robert De Niro and not Jesse Plemons, who was perched there two weeks ago. Reviews indicate it’s De Niro who should have the better shot.
Let’s be clear. My rankings right now reflect who I believe will be nominated and not necessarily who I think will win (it’s simply too early for that). Killers looks to be in a fantastic position for multiples nods after its unveiling.
Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest is right behind Moon as far as significant chatter out of the festival. The Holocaust drama could contend in Pic and Director. So could lead actress Sandra Hüller. Yet she might have an even stronger chance for her performance in Anatomy of a Fall.
For May December from Todd Haynes, reviews were quite solid. Its best chances at inclusion could be for its trio of actors Natalie Portman, Julianne Moore, and Charles Melton. We’re still not sure if Portman and Moore will be co-campaigned for lead. For now I’m slotting the former in Actress and the latter in supporting.
Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City drew plaudits though mixed reaction elsewhere. I’m skeptical of its chances (though it could play in down-the-line races like Production Design and Score).
Then there’s the features that dropped out of contention. Pixar’s Elemental won’t be the first studio title to vie for BP since Toy Story 3. It might be lucky to get an Animated Feature mention after some lackluster reaction. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny will not be a Top Gun: Maverick style hopeful for Oscars. And the fest’s opener Jeanne du Barry with Johnny Depp might get a Costume Design nod and that’s all.
In 2022, I made predictions for the 95th Academy Awards on this same day. It yielded 3 of the eventual 10 BP nominees with eventual winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, and Women Talking. Four others (Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick) were named in Other Possibilities. I wasn’t ready to anoint Triangle of Sadness despite its Cannes hardware. In Director – I correctly named the victorious Daniels for Everything Everywhere and Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. With Best Actress, I had Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere) who would take the gold. Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Ana de Armas (Blonde) were Other Possibilities. I will note that I had Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) listed in supporting and she was nominated in lead. For Actor, winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale) were correctly called with Austin Butler (Elvis) listed. Both Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Paul Mescal (Aftersun) were Other Possibilities. None of the five contenders in Supporting Actress were rightly placed. I did have winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere), her costar Stephanie Hsu, and Hong Chau (The Whale) in Other Possibilities. Finally, Ke Huy Quan (who took the statue) for Everything Everywhere was the only correctly tagged performer in Supporting Actor.
OK… deep breath. With all that context, let’s see where everything and everyone ranks…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)
6. Saltburn (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 15) (+8)
8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Air (PR: 9) (E)
10. Poor Things (PR: 6) (-4)
Other Possibilities:
11. May December (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Maestro (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Challengers (PR: 14) (E)
15. Blitz (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Barbie (PR: 12) (-4)
17. Napoleon (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Rustin (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Flint Strong (PR: 17) (-2)
20. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 16) (-4)
21. The Nickel Boys (PR: 21) (E)
22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (E)
23. The Killer (PR: 19) (-4)
24. Asteroid City (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Ferrari (PR: 23) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Strangers
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 14) (+9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Todd Haynes, May December
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (E)
8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (E)
13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)
15. Jane Levy, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Regina King, Shirley
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)
8. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (E)
11. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (E)
14. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 12) (-2)
15. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Scott, Strangers
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)
5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (E)
12. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 13) (E)
14. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 14) (E)
15. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Claire Foy, Strangers
Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+7)
4. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (+4)
5. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilties:
6. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-9)
11. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 14) (-1)
As April closes out, I’m giving you my initial ranked projections for the Best Picture race at the 96th Academy Awards. Over the past few days, I’ve done the same for Director and the four acting derbies. If you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post.
I will note that I made my first rankings for the 95th Oscars around the same time last year. Of those 10 movies predicted, it yielded three eventual nominees: Everything Everywhere All at Once (which won), The Fabelmans, and Women Talking. Four additional contenders were mentioned in Other Possibilities: Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, and Tár.
Three films in my top 25 from 2022 can be found here since they were delayed: Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, and Rustin. Let’s dispense with the caveats you’re used to seeing if you read my other write-ups. Some titles here are bound to be pushed back. Some will simply not match pre-release hype and fall by the wayside. Surprises will emerge throughout the season and at upcoming festivals.
Here’s the premiere outlook on BP’ 23!
TODD’S BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS
1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Past Lives
3. The Color Purple
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Oppenheimer
6. Poor Things
7. Saltburn
8. Challengers
9. Air
10. May December
Other Possibilities:
11. Maestro
12. The Holdovers
13. Blitz
14. Barbie
15. Bob Marley: One Love
16. Napoleon
17. The Book of Clarence
18. Strangers
19. Flint Strong
20. Rustin
21. The Killer
22. Asteroid City
23. Ferrari
24. The Nickel Boys
25. The Bikeriders
And now you can expect updates to these rankings every couple of weeks (they’ll soon become weekly). Keep an eye on the blog and on my podcast (search Movies at the Speed of Speculation) for all of it!
Oscar predictions encompassing my first ranked selections for the 96th Academy Awards turns to Best Director. If you didn’t catch my posts on the acting contenders, you can find them at the bottom.
My initial projections for the previous ceremony at the same juncture in 2022 correctly identified Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) in the top five and had eventual winners the Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once) in sixth. I also had Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) listed. Their pictures got pushed back and you’ll find them here yet again.
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