2023 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Picture)

As April closes out, I’m giving you my initial ranked projections for the Best Picture race at the 96th Academy Awards. Over the past few days, I’ve done the same for Director and the four acting derbies. If you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post.

I will note that I made my first rankings for the 95th Oscars around the same time last year. Of those 10 movies predicted, it yielded three eventual nominees: Everything Everywhere All at Once (which won), The Fabelmans, and Women Talking. Four additional contenders were mentioned in Other Possibilities: Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, and Tár.

Three films in my top 25 from 2022 can be found here since they were delayed: Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, and Rustin. Let’s dispense with the caveats you’re used to seeing if you read my other write-ups. Some titles here are bound to be pushed back. Some will simply not match pre-release hype and fall by the wayside. Surprises will emerge throughout the season and at upcoming festivals.

Here’s the premiere outlook on BP’ 23!


1. Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Past Lives

3. The Color Purple

4. Dune: Part Two

5. Oppenheimer

6. Poor Things

7. Saltburn

8. Challengers

9. Air

10. May December

Other Possibilities:

11. Maestro

12. The Holdovers

13. Blitz

14. Barbie

15. Bob Marley: One Love

16. Napoleon

17. The Book of Clarence

18. Strangers

19. Flint Strong

20. Rustin

21. The Killer

22. Asteroid City

23. Ferrari

24. The Nickel Boys

25. The Bikeriders

And now you can expect updates to these rankings every couple of weeks (they’ll soon become weekly). Keep an eye on the blog and on my podcast (search Movies at the Speed of Speculation) for all of it!

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