Oscar History: 2013

Recapping the Oscar Season of 2013, a few things stick out. The big winners were 12 Years a Slave and Gravity, which cleaned up in the tech races. The big loser was American Hustle, which came away with zero victories despite 10 nominations (tying it for most nods with Gravity, which won 7 of them). Another take: it was a packed year for Best Actor with some deserving gents left out.

As I have done with previous years, let’s take a deeper dive in the 86th Academy Awards in the major races:

Steve McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave unsurprisingly came away with the Best Picture prize in a field that yielded eight other films. They were David O. Russell’s American Hustle, Paul Greengrass’s Captain Phillips, Jean-Marc Vallee’s Dallas Buyers Club, Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity, Spike Jonze’s Her, Alexander Payne’s Nebraska, Philomena from Stephen Frears, and Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street. 

That’s a solid grouping of pictures and there’s probably no obvious omissions from my end in 2013.. That said, many young girls may protest Frozen not making the cut though it did win Best Animated Feature. And certainly Inside Llewyn Davis from the Coen Brothers had its ardent admirers.

There was a Picture/Director split with Cuaron emerging victorious for Gravity. The filmmaker would achieve the same feat five years later when he won for Roma but Green Book took Best Picture. Other nominees were McQueen, Payne, Russell, and Scorsese.I would argue that Greengrass and Jonze could have made the final five.

In the aforementioned crowded Best Actor derby, Matthew McConaughey took gold for his work in Dallas Buyers Club. The four other contenders were Christian Bale for Hustle, Bruce Dern in Nebraska, Leonardo DiCaprio for Wall Street, and Chiwetel Ejiofor in 12 Years a Slave. Note that all nominees came from Best Picture hopefuls.

Let’s start with Tom Hanks, who I absolutely feel should have gotten in for his remarkable performance in Captain Phillips. The clip I’ve included below proves it and then some. You could say the same for Joaquin Phoenix in Her. Others worth noting: Oscar Isaac in Inside Llewyn Davis, Hugh Jackman in Prisoners, and Robert Redford for All Is Lost. 

Cate Blanchett was the latest actress to be honored for her work in a Woody Allen picture as she took Best Actress for Blue Jasmine. The other nominees were Amy Adams (American Hustle), Sandra Bullock (Gravity), Judi Dench (Philomena), and the ever present Meryl Streep (August: Osage County).

I’ll mention three others left out worthy of consideration: Brie Larson in Short Term 12, Julia-Louis Dreyfus for Enough Said, and Emma Thompson in Saving Mr. Banks. For the latter, it was a bit unexpected that she was left out.

McConaughey’s Dallas Buyers costar Jared Leto won Supporting Actor over Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips), Bradley Cooper (American Hustle), Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave), and Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street). Again, all nominees stemmed from Picture contenders.

Some others that didn’t quite make it: Daniel Bruhl in Rush, Steve Coogan for Philomena, Paul Dano in Prisoners, and Will Forte in Nebraska.

Another big 12 Years victory was Lupita Nyong’o in Supporting Actress. She took the prize despite competition from Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine), Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle), Julia Roberts (August: Osage County), and June Squibb (Nebraska).

Despite it being a voice only performance, I would say Scarlett Johansson in Her deserved a spot and the same could be said for Margot Robbie in Wall Street.

And there you have it, folks! My look back at the Oscar landscape in 2013. I’ll have 2014 up in due time…

Oscar Watch: Where’d You Go, Bernadette

The fact that acclaimed filmmaker Richard Linklater’s latest effort lifted its review embargo one day before release could be seen as a red flag. Considering his previous pic Last Flag Flying didn’t particularly connect with critics or audiences might have been seen as a harbinger of things to come for Where’d You Go, Bernadette.

Reaction out today confirms the suspicions. The Cate Blanchett led mystery comedy, based on Maria Semple’s 2012 bestseller, holds just a 35% Rotten Tomatoes score at press time. Five years after Linklater’s Boyhood won and was nominated for multiple Oscars, it appears this will be quickly forgotten in the slow August frame.

Blanchett has managed some praise for her work. It’s been 15 years since she won Supporting Actress for Martin Scorsese’s The Aviator and 6 years since she took gold for her leading role in Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine. She’s been nominated five other times.

I wouldn’t anticipate this will be #8. And overall – If Oscar watchers are looking for Bernadette come nominations time, they’ll be left wondering where it went. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Best Supporting Actress: A Look Back

Today begins a new blog series where I’m looking back at five of the major Oscar categories from 1990 to the present: the four acting races and Best Picture. This is essentially the time period where I’ve closely watched and analyzed. My charge? Picking the three largest upsets in each said category and the three least surprising winners… a film or performer where it truly would have been a shock if they didn’t emerge victorious.

We begin with Best Supporting Actress and this is one in which there have been some genuine upsets over the past quarter century plus. Unlike some other races we’ll get to later, it was not a challenge to pick three unexpected winners.

The other agenda item here is I’m picking my personal selections for strongest and weakest overall field among the five nominees in the acting derby’s and five-ten for Best Picture.

For starters, here’s the list of women that won gold statues in the supporting race from 1990 to now:

1990 – Whoopi Goldberg, Ghost

1991 – Mercedes Ruehl, The Fisher King

1992 – Marisa Tomei, My Cousin Vinny

1993 – Anna Paquin, The Piano

1994 – Dianne Wiest, Bullets Over Broadway

1995 – Mira Sorvino, Mighty Aphrodite

1996 – Juliette Binoche, The English Patient

1997 – Kim Basinger, L.A. Confidential

1998 – Judi Dench, Shakespeare in Love

1999 – Angelina Jolie, Girl, Interrupted

2000 – Marcia Gay Harden, Pollock

2001 – Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind

2002 – Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago

2003 – Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain

2004 – Cate Blanchett, The Aviator

2005 – Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardner

2006 – Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

2007 – Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

2008 – Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona

2009 – Mo’Nique, Precious

2010 – Melissa Leo, The Fighter

2011 – Octavia Spencer, The Help

2012 – Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

2013 – Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

2014 – Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

2015 – Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

2016 – Viola Davis, Fences

2017 – Allison Janney, I, Tonya

I’ll begin with the least surprising winners. Truthfully, there are plenty of selections (and will be in each race) to pick from here. It’s normal procedure for the front runner to actually win. Here’s three that did just that:

3. Dianne Wiest, Bullets Over Broadway

Of the 28 recipients to choose from, note that 3 of them were under the direction of Woody Allen. None were surprise winners. That’s most evident with Wiest’s showcase work as an aging diva here. Her win here came just eight years following her Oscar winning role in another Allen pic, Hannah and Her Sisters.

2. Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

Fans of the Broadway play this is based upon knew Ms. Hudson could have a legitimate breakthrough part here. She nailed it and her win was never in much doubt.

1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Similar to Hudson’s victory, Hathaway’s casting as Fantine and her “I Dreamed a Dream” dramatic solo made her the odds-on favorite from the moment the project was announced. That never changed.

Now we get to the upsets and there were four to choose from. I could easily include Anna Paquin in The Piano, who became the second youngest winner when she beat out favorite Winona Ryder for The Age of Innocence. Here’s 3 I rank as even more surprising:

3. Marcia Gay Harden, Pollock

Harden had won no significant precursors and Kate Hudson was expected to have her name called for Almost Famous. She wasn’t even nominated for a Golden Globe or SAG.

2. Juliette Binoche, The English Patient

While the film itself was the anticipated winner for Picture (which it did), the Oscars were expected to select the legendary Lauren Bacall for her work in Barbra Streisand’s The Mirror Has Two Faces. Yet it was Binoche’s performance that was unexpectedly honored.

1. Marisa Tomei, My Cousin Vinny

For starters, comedic roles are rarely nominated and wins are even more unheard of. Tomei was a newcomer in a picture that wasn’t a factor in any other category. Her competition was a list of venerable actresses: Judy Davis (Husbands and Wives), Joan Plowright (Enchanted April), Vanessa Redgrave (Howards End), and Miranda Richardson (Damages). The victory here was so shocking that conspiracy theories emerged that presenter Jack Palance had accidentally read the wrong name. That’s been debunked, but Tomei’s trip to the stage remains one of Oscar’s largest jaw droppers.

As for the fields, I’m going with 1991 for the weakest link in the chain. I probably would have given the award to Juliette Lewis in Cape Fear. However, the group was not particularly strong:

Mercedes Ruehl, The Fisher King (Winner)

Diane Ladd, Rambling Rose

Juliette Lewis, Cape Fear

Kate Nelligan, The Prince of Tides

Jessica Tandy, Fried Green Tomatoes

For the strongest field overall, I went with 2004 when Cate Blanchett won for her portrayal of Katherine Hepburn in Martin Scorsese’s The Aviator. The other nominees:

Laura Linney, Kinsey

Virginia Madsen, Sideways

Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda

Natalie Portman, Closer

And there you have it! I’ll have Supporting Actor up soon…

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: October 19th Edition

My weekly round of Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories brings a couple of updates from the past week:

Woody Allen’s Wonder Wheel premiered at the New York Film Festival and the mixed reaction has caused it to roll all the way out of the top 25 possibilities for Best Picture. Kate Winslet still stands a decent shot at Best Actress in a very crowded race, but her nomination seems a bit less assured to me now. The film also takes a hit in the Original Screenplay derby.

It’s looking like The Leisure Seeker with Donald Sutherland will not be released until 2018. I’ve had the actor on the lower rungs of possibility for Best Actor, but until I see confirmation of an awards qualifying end of year release date, he’s out for now.

And with that, let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

7. Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 10)

9. The Florida Project (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Detroit (PR: 12)

11. Last Flag Flying (PR: 11)

12. Phantom Thread (PR: 15)

13. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 14)

14. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 13)

15. I, Tonya (PR: 17)

16. Downsizing (PR: 18)

17. The Greatest Showman (PR: 16)

18. Lady Bird (PR: 22)

19. All the Money in the World (PR: 20)

20. Get Out (PR: 19)

21. Wonderstruck (PR: 21)

22. The Big Sick (PR: 23)

23. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 25)

24. Wind River (PR: 24)

25. Molly’s Game (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wonder Wheel 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6uefZOL41x4

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

5. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

7. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)

8. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

9. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 10)

10. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)

11. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 12)

12. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 14)

13. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 13)

14. Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel

Jordan Peele, Get Out

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)

5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)

7. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 7)

8. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 9)

9. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 8)

10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 10)

11. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: 11)

12. Matt Damon, Downsizing (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 13)

14. Jason Clarke, Chappaquiddick (PR: 15)

15. Algee Smith, Detroit (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker 

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)

4. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)

5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)

8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)

10. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: 11)

11. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 10)

12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 12)

13. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 15)

14. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 13)

15. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Carey Mulligan, Mudbound

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 5)

5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)

7. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 7)

8. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 6)

9. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

10. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 9)

11. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing (PR: 11)

12. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 12)

13. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 13)

15. Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Colin Farrell, The Beguiled

Jim Belushi, Wonder Wheel

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=B_8S5Ze8q48

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 3)

3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)

5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 8)

7. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 5)

8. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)

9. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 10)

10. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 11)

11. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)

12. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: 13)

13. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 12)

14. Sarah Paulson, The Post (PR: 15)

15. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Mudbound (PR: 2)

3. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)

4. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)

8. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 9)

9. The Beguiled (PR: 6)

10. All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

11. Stronger (PR: 12)

12. The Disaster Artist (PR: 11)

13. The Death of Stalin (PR: 13)

14. Wonder (PR: 15)

15. First, They Killed My Father (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Thank You for Your Service

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

3. The Post (PR: 2)

4. The Florida Project (PR: 6)

5. The Big Sick (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

7. Dunkirk (PR: 10)

8. Get Out (PR: 8)

9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)

10. I, Tonya (PR: 11)

11. Downsizing (PR: 12)

12. Phantom Thread (PR: 13)

13. Wind River (PR: 14)

14. Detroit (PR: 15)

15. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

I’ll be back next Thursday with a fresh round of predictions!

Oscar Watch: Wonder Wheel

As the New York Film Festival draws to its close, another piece of the Oscar puzzle has revealed itself with Woody Allen’s Wonder Wheel. Early critical reaction is a bit mixed yet there seems to be general consensus that Kate Winslet’s lead performance is wonderful.

As has been discussed numerous times already on the blog, Best Actress looks packed with this year. There’s already acclaimed performances from Frances McDormand in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Margot Robbie in I, Tonya, Emma Stone in Battle of the Sexes, Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water, Judi Dench in Victoria and Abdul, and Jessica Chastain in Molly’s Game, among others. That’s in addition to Meryl Streep’s unseen but likely contending work in The Post. Even with all that significant competition, Winslet could well be in line for her 8th nomination, having won once in 2008 for The Reader.

The cinematography for Wheel has also received praise and that’s certainly a race where a nod is doable. However, I am now thinking Woody’s latest is a long shot to nab a Best Picture nomination and Original Screenplay seems less assured now (that’s another crowded category). Juno Temple has received some decent ink today, but a Supporting Actress nomination could be a stretch. Male costars Justin Timberlake and Jim Belushi appear to be non-factors.

Bottom line: Winslet keeps her name in the mix, but other categories seem less likely now than they did yesterday.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: October 12th Edition

It’s Thursday and that means a fresh round of my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. Some thoughts from the past week:

I can’t help but wonder if the disappointing box office performance of Blade Runner 2049 will hurt its chances at nominations for Picture and Director. It certainly doesn’t help. I had the film and director Denis Villeneuve getting in last week. Today that changes, but we’ll see if it manages to rise back up in subsequent weeks.

Woody Allen’s Wonder Wheel is slated to premiere at the New York Film Festival tonight and that means reviews will be up. I have it getting nominations in Picture, Actress, and Original Screenplay right now, but lots of questions will be answered in a matter of hours.

Sean Baker’s The Florida Project seems to be garnering a lot of goodwill and for the first time, I have it taking a major jump into an actual nomination. We’ll see if that sticks.

Finally, it appears Steven Spielberg’s The Post will qualify for Original Screenplay and not Adapted as previously thought. That change has been reflected here.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)

6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

7. Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)

9. The Florida Project (PR: 19)

Other Possibilities:

10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)

11. Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)

12. Detroit (PR: 13)

13. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 11)

14. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 15)

15. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

16. The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)

17. I, Tonya (PR: 17)

18. Downsizing (PR: 18)

19. Get Out (PR: 16)

20. All the Money in the World (PR: 21)

21. Wonderstruck (PR: 24)

22. Lady Bird (PR: 20)

23. The Big Sick (PR: 22)

24. Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Goodbye Christopher Robin

Molly’s Game

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 5)

8. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

9. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)

10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)

12. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 14)

13. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

14. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)

15. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

4. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 3)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)

7. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)

8. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq. (PR: 7)

9. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)

10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 9)

11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 10)

12. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: 13)

13. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 12)

14. Algee Smith, Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jason Clarke, Chappaquiddick (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin

Best Actress 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)

4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)

10. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 10)

11. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: 13)

12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 11)

13. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 12)

14. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Jennifer Lawrence, mother!

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)

7. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

8. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 8)

9. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 11)

10. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)

11. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing (PR: 13)

12. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 12)

14. Colin Farrell, The Beguiled (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jim Belushi, Wonder Wheel (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying

Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 4)

3. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)

5. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 8)

8. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

9. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)

10. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 10)

11. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 11)

12. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 12)

13. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: 13)

15. Sarah Paulson, The Post (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin

Cicely Tyson, Last Flag Flying

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 2)

2. Mudbound (PR: 3)

3. Molly’s Game (PR: 5)

4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Beguiled (PR: 10)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)

9. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 12)

10. All the Money in the World (PR: 9)

11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 11)

12. Stronger (PR: 13)

13. The Death of Stalin (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Thank You for Your Service (PR: 15)

15. Wonder (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

The Post (moved to Original Screenplay)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. The Post (PR: Not Ranked, moved from Adapted Screenplay)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Florida Project (PR: 11)

7. The Big Sick (PR: 5)

8. Get Out (PR: 6)

9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)

10. Dunkirk (PR: 7)

11. I, Tonya (PR: 8)

12. Downsizing (PR: 12)

13. Phantom Thread (PR: 13)

14. Wind River (PR: 14)

15. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Greatest Showman

And there you have it! I’ll be back at it next Thursday with fresh predictions…

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: October 5th Edition

Back at it once again with my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories as we move to October. Over the past week, I would say there’s been two significant developments. First, Richard Linklater’s Last Flag Flying debuted at the New York Film Festival to somewhat mixed results. I’ve had it in my predicted nine films to be nominated for Best Picture and that changes for now.

The other story is the critical reaction for Blade Runner 2049, which opens tomorrow. Many of the reviews have been raves and I believe it’s increased it chances greatly at nods for Picture and its director Denis Villeneuve, who was nominated just last year for Arrival. 

One further story line is the falling prospects of Battle of the Sexes, which is not performing up to expectations at the box office. Much of the reasoning for it receiving nominations was that it could turn into a hit audience pleaser. That hasn’t occurred and its chances are in doubt. Goodbye Christopher Robin has reviews out as well and its prospects are looking dim.

Per usual, just because I rank something at #1 doesn’t mean I think it wins. This is based on chances for a nomination. Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

7. Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 13)

9. Wonder Wheel (PR: 11)

Other Possibilities:

10. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

11. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 9)

12. Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)

13. Detroit (PR: 18)

14. The Greatest Showman (PR: 12)

15. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 15)

16. Get Out (PR: 16)

17. I, Tonya (PR: 22)

18. Downsizing (PR: 19)

19. The Florida Project (PR: 23)

20. Lady Bird (PR: 21)

21. All the Money in the World (PR: 17)

22. The Big Sick (PR: 20)

23. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 14)

24. Wonderstruck (PR: 25)

25. Molly’s Game (PR: 24)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)

7. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

8. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)

9. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 11)

10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)

13. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 13)

14. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 15)

15. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 12)

Dropped Out:

Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 3)

4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 5)

7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq. (PR: 8)

8. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 6)

9. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 12)

10. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 11)

11. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 10)

12. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 15)

13. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: 13)

14. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 9)

15. Jason Clarke, Chappaquiddick (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 5)

4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

7. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 8)

10. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 10)

11. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 12)

12. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 11)

13. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: 13)

14. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 15)

15. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 14)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

5. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 7)

7. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 6)

8. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 11)

9. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

10. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)

11. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 12)

12. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 13)

13. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

15. Jim Belushi, Wonder Wheel (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

Dustin Hoffman, The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)

3. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

4. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 8)

7. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 7)

8. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 6)

9. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 11)

10. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 9)

11. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 12)

12. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 13)

13. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: 14)

14. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 10)

15. Cicely Tyson, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tatiana Maslany, Stronger

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Post (PR: 1)

2. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 2)

3. Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)

5. Molly’s Game (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 12)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

8. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)

9. All the Money in the World (PR: 6)

10. The Beguiled (PR: 9)

11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 11)

12. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 10)

13. Stronger (PR: 13)

14. Wonder (PR: 14)

15. Thank You for Your Service (PR: 15)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. The Big Sick (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Get Out (PR: 6)

7. Dunkirk (PR: 8)

8. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Lady Bird (PR: 10)

10. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)

11. The Florida Project (PR: 12)

12. Downsizing (PR: 11)

13. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

14. Wind River (PR: 13)

15. The Greatest Showman (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Goodbye Christopher Robin

And there you have it! I’ll be back at it next Thursday with brand new Oscar updates…

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 28th Edition

Back at it with my weekly Oscar predictions on the eight major categories and how those races are shaping up! In the next week, two big pieces of the Academy puzzle will come into focus. Last Flag Flying will screen this evening at the New York Film Festival and Blade Runner 2049 will have its reviews out as it opens a week from tomorrow (early word-of-mouth is strong). I’m also, for the first time, including Clint Eastwood’s The 15:17 to Paris, which hasn’t been confirmed for release by the end of the year (though it’s expected to be).

As for this week, we’ve seen some significant changes in the rankings at the top for both Actress and Supporting Actress. Again, I’ll note that just because I’m ranking something first doesn’t mean I think it wins. This is strictly guesstimates on chances of being nominated.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

4. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)

6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Mudbound (PR: 5)

8. Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

9. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

10. Phantom Thread (PR: 11)

11. Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)

12. The Greatest Showman (PR: 10)

13. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 14)

14. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 15)

15. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)

16. Get Out (PR: 24)

17. All the Money in the World (PR: 17)

18. Detroit (PR: 16)

19. Downsizing (PR: 13)

20. The Big Sick (PR: 21)

21. Lady Bird (PR: 25)

22. I, Tonya (PR: 20)

23. The Florida Project (PR: 19)

24. Molly’s Game (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Wonderstruck (PR: 22)

Dropped Out:

Coco

mother!

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)

8. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)

9. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)

10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

11. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)

12. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 9)

13. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman (PR: 15)

15. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World

Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 3)

4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

7. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

8. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 7)

9. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 8)

10. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)

11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 10)

12. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 13)

15. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (reportedly competing in Supporting Actor)

Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House

Matt Damon, Downsizing

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

3. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 1)

4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)

7. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

8. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 10)

9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

10. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 9)

11. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 11)

12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 12)

13. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 13)

15. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Carey Mulligan, Mudbound

Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

5. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 6)

7. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 8)

8. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

10. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

11. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

12. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 12)

13. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 11)

14. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 15)

15. Dustin Hoffman, The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound

Christoph Waltz, Downsizing

Best Supporting Actress

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)

2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 1)

3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 6)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)

5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)

7. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 11)

8. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

9. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 8)

11. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)

12. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: 14)

15. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: 11)

Dropped Out:

Julianne Moore, Suburbicon

Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!

Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (moved to Lead Actress)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Post (PR: 1)

2. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 2)

3. Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)

5. Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

7. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. The Beguiled (PR: 7)

10. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)

11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 12)

12. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)

13. Stronger (PR: 9)

14. Wonder (PR: 13)

15. Thank You for Your Service (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Logan

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 2)

4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. The Big Sick (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Get Out (PR: 7)

7. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)

8. Dunkirk (PR: 8)

9. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)

10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)

11. Downsizing (PR: 9)

12. The Florida Project (PR: 11)

13. Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 14)

15. The Greatest Showman (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Coco

And there you have it! Updates will be on the way next Thursday…

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 22nd Edition

My weekly Thursday Oscar predictions are coming to you on a Friday this week (sorry for the delay) as the festival season shed some light on potential nominees. That said, there’s still lots of uncertainty with plenty left to be seen.

Per usual, I’m listing my predicted nominees in the eight major categories with 25 potentials for Best Picture and 15 in the others. Once again, note that just because I rank something first doesn’t mean I think it will win. These rankings are more geared toward what I think will definitely be nominated at this juncture. For instance, even though Dunkirk is placed 1st, I wouldn’t say it’s the front runner to take home Best Picture at all.

Let’s get to it and I’ll get the weekly post back to Thursdays next week!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. Mudbound (PR: 5)

6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)

7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 17)

8. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)

9. Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

11. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

12. Wonder Wheel (PR: 13)

13. Downsizing (PR: 11)

14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 16)

15. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 12)

16. Detroit (PR: 14)

17. All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

18. Coco (PR: 19)

19. The Florida Project (PR: 23)

20. I, Tonya (PR: 24)

21. The Big Sick (PR: Not Ranked)

22. Wonderstruck (PR: 18)

23. mother! (PR: 15)

24. Get Out (PR: 20)

25. Lady Bird (PR: 21)

Dropped Out:

Wind River

Wonder Woman

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)

9. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)

10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

11. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)

12. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 15)

13. Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)

15. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Alexander Payne, Downsizing

Darren Aronofsky, mother!

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 4)

4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)

5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 10)

7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 7)

8. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 9)

9. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 11)

11. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 12)

12. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: 13)

13. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)

14. Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House (PR: 15)

15. Matt Damon, Downsizing (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (picture reportedly moved to 2018)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 1)

2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 11)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)

11. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 13)

12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 10)

13. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 12)

14. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound (PR: 15)

15. Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night (PR: 14)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 6)

7. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

8. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 7)

9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

10. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 12)

12. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 13)

13. Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 11)

Dropped Out:

James Franco, The Disaster Artist

Jamie Bell, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

Harrison Ford, Blade Runner 2049

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 1)

2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 3)

3. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 2)

5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 9)

7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 6)

9. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 13)

10. Julianne Moore, Suburbicon (PR: 10)

11. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: 14)

12. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 11)

13. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother! (PR: 8)

14. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: 12)

Dropped Out:

Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Post (PR: 1)

2. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

3. Mudbound (PR: 2)

4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

7. The Beguiled (PR: 9)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. Stronger (PR: 7)

10. All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 12)

12. The Disaster Artist (PR: 11)

13. Wonder (PR: 13)

14. Logan (PR: 15)

15. Thank You for Your Service (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

You Were Never Really Here (reportedly moved to 2018)

My Cousin Rachel

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

2. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 5)

5. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Big Sick (PR: 12)

7. Get Out (PR: 6)

8. Dunkirk (PR: 8)

9. Downsizing (PR: 9)

10. Lady Bird (PR: 11)

11. The Florida Project (PR: 15)

12. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)

13. Coco (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 10)

15. The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

mother!

And there you have it, folks! I’ll be back next week with my latest update…

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 14th Edition

We’ve arrived at my second round of weekly Oscar predictions that will come your way every Thursday on the blog! Since last week, a number of titles have screened at the Toronto Film Festival, in addition to the Venice and Telluride fests that preceded it.

As I did last week, I will list my current predicted nominees in the eight biggest races with a total of 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 in the others. Beginning today, you’ll be able to see the fluctuation in rankings from last week to the current one and see what and who has joined and dropped out. Once again, rankings reflect who and what I think will be nominated and not necessarily win.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

5. Mudbound (PR: 4)

6. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)

7. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

8. Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Phantom Thread (PR: 11)

11. Downsizing (PR: 8)

12. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 16)

13. Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)

14. Detroit (PR: 14)

15. mother! (PR: 13)

16. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)

17. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 18)

18. Wonderstruck (PR: 17)

19. Coco (PR: 19)

20. Get Out (PR: 20)

21. Lady Bird (PR: 22)

22. Wind River (PR: 21)

23. The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)

24. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Wonder Woman (PR: 23)

Dropped Out:

Molly’s Game

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

7. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

10. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)

11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)

12. Alexander Payne, Downsizing (PR: 9)

13. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)

14. Darren Aronofsky, mother! (PR: 13)

15. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 15)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)

4. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 4)

5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (PR: 5)

7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 15)

8. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)

9. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 7)

10. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)

11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 12)

12. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)

13. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Matt Damon, Downsizing (PR: 10)

15. Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Renner, Wind River

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 1)

2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 3)

7. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)

10. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 7)

11. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 8)

12. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 13)

13. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 12)

14. Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night (PR: 15)

15. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound (PR: 11)

Dropped Out:

Isabelle Huppert, Happy End

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 2)

5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 8)

7. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 5)

8. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 10)

11. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 12)

13. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 14)

14. Jamie Bell, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Harrison Ford, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Idris Elba, Molly’s Game

Woody Harrelson, The Glass Castle

Christoph Waltz, Downsizing

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 1)

2. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 2)

3. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 6)

7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 5)

8. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother! (PR: 7)

9. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 11)

10. Julianne Moore, Suburbicon (PR: 13)

11. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 14)

12. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)

14. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman

Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Post (PR: 1)

2. Mudbound (PR: 2)

3. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Molly’s Game (PR: 5)

7. Stronger (PR: 12)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. The Beguiled (PR: 9)

10. You Were Never Really Here (PR: 7)

11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 10)

12. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)

13. Wonder (PR: 13)

14. My Cousin Rachel (PR: 14)

15. Logan (PR: 15)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)

5. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Get Out (PR: 7)

7. Phantom Thread (PR: 8)

8. Dunkirk (PR: 9)

9. Downsizing (PR: 5)

10. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 15)

11. Lady Bird (PR: 11)

12. The Big Sick (PR: 10)

13. mother! (PR: 13)

14. The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)

15. The Florida Project (PR: 12)

And there you have it, folks! Expect more Oscar Watch posts to come your way and my next full predictions next Thursday…