Just as I did last year, I waited an entire two weeks from the previous ceremony before pontificating on the next Oscars. There is my impossibly early look at the six major categories for the 96th Academy Awards and it begins with Supporting Actor.
Let’s be clear that many of the 15 names I mention today will probably not be on the radar screen a little less than a year from now. Release dates will get pushed back and make some hopefuls ineligible. Some pictures will simply fizzle out. Roles will be smaller than anticipated or even bigger and perhaps contend in the lead derby.
With the four acting races and director, I’ll give you my five current picks with ten other possibilities. When it gets to Picture later this week, I’ll project my ten and list fifteen others.
In 2022, when I made my super duper early picks in Supporting Actor, it yielded none of the eventual contenders. Like I said… it’s early. Some of the names I said last time around were Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things, Glynn Turman in Rustin, and Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon. All three of those movies were pushed to 2023 and that’s why they materialize again.
Best Supporting Actress will be posted tomorrow. This is my snapshot of Supporting Actor.
TODD’S MARCH 2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
To Oscar prognosticators like yours truly, today was like Christmas morning as nominations were unwrapped early for the 93rd Annual Academy Awards, airing April 25th. Some things never change with the prediction game. There were categories where I was perfect (3 of them) and, as has become tradition, a dreaded race where I whiffed at 2/5.
As was the most likely scenario, Mank led all films with 10 nominations. Yet it did so by missing some key races that are usually needed to nab a Best Picture victory. This was followed by six pictures garnering six mentions: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Nomadland, Sound of Metal, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Some of those over performed. Others – not so much.
Overall this blogger went 80/104 on estimates and in this topsy turvy year, I’ll take it. Let’s break it down race by race, shall we?
Best Picture
Nominees: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
How I Did: 7/9
The magic number of nominees ended up being 8 and I projected 9. I’ll say again… I’m very happy that the Academy is going with a set 10 again beginning in 2022. This means it was Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami that missed and The Father (which had a solid showing) in. Judas, Minari and Sound of Metal proved their anticipated status as late bloomers making the cut.
Best Director
Nominees: Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman), David Fincher (Mank), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
How I Did: 4/5
The Academy made history today when they nominated two women in Director for the first time. This was expected, but it is worth noting that Regina King (One Night in Miami) was a contender who missed the cut. That’s not where I went wrong as Vinterberg came out of nowhere to get a spot. While Another Round is expected to emerge victorious in International Feature Film, its director became the rare nominee to get in without a Best Picture slot. And despite being nominated for his writing, Aaron Sorkin (Trial) couldn’t get into this one.
Best Actress
Nominees: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
I can’t put myself on the back too much here. This was widely seen as the most probable quintet and it remained true to form. Potential surprise picks like Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) and Golden Globe Musical/Comedy winner Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot) didn’t materialize.
Best Actor
Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Steven Yeun (Minari)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Again, no shockers here. Any late momentum by Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round) or Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian) was squashed and Boseman stands tall as the major frontrunner.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)
How I Did: 4/5
For the past couple of weeks, there have been six likely nominees and only five spots. I went with Golden Globe winner Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian) over Seyfried. Fun fact: Foster is the first Globe winner from this category in 44 years to not land an Oscar mention. This is a wide open acting race (more so than the others by far).
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami), Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
How I Did: 4/5
The morning’s biggest surprise is the inclusion of Stanfield with his Judas costar Kaluuya. That has nothing to do with performance itself as Warner Bros. actually campaigned for Stanfield in Best Actor. The Academy simply ignored that and chose to put him here. In other words, this is the nomination that nobody saw coming. His inclusion prevented Boseman from being a double nominee for Da 5 Bloods (which had an almost nonexistent showing).
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
How I Did: 4/5
No Mank is the headline here as Sound of Metal grabbed the spot. This omission is what makes a Mank BP victory highly doubtful.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Father, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, The White Tiger
How I Did: 3/5
Ma Rainey‘s bleaker than expected morning continued with no love here. Same goes for The Mauritanian (which goose egged today). In their place? Borat and The White Tiger.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Onward, Over the Moon, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Soul, Wolfwalkers
How I Did: 4/5
It was Sheep over The Croods: A New Age in a competition where Disney/Pixar’s Soul should dominate.
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees: Collective, Crip Camp, The Mole Agent, My Octopus Teacher, Time
How I Did: 3/5
This category (unpredictable usually) was a real head scratcher in 2020. I had Dick Johnson Is Dead and Welcome to Chechnya in over Crip Camp and The Mole Agent. This is a toughie to project, but I’ll say Time might have an edge.
Best International Feature Film
Nominees: Another Round, Better Days, Collective, The Man Who Sold His Skin, Quo Vadis, Aida?
How I Did: 2/5 (ugh)
The dreaded 2/5 came here with Better Days, double nominee Collective, and the charmingly titled The Man Who Sold His Skin in over my picks of Dear Comrades!, La Llorona, and Two of Us. This looks like Round‘s race to lose at press time.
Best Cinematography
Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, News of the World, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
How I Did: 4/5
Judas over Minari was where I went wrong, but not shocking considering the former’s very good day. You may have noticed this is the first mention of News of the World, which picked up four tech nods but got zilch in the big derbies.
Best Costume Design
Nominees: Emma, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Mulan, Pinocchio
How I Did: 4/5
Not many were saying Pinocchio would play here, but it nosed out my Ammonite selection.
Best Film Editing
Nominees: The Father, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
How I Did: 4/5
This is another high profile miss for Mank as The Father was selected instead. Of its six nods, this and Original Screenplay is where Trial has the best shot at gold.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Pinocchio
How I Did: 4/5
And here’s a scenario where I was saying Mank would miss. It didn’t as it edged out Birds of Prey, which was called out zero times this morning.
Best Original Score
Nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Soul
How I Did: 4/5
Here marks the sole mention for Bloods in a race where it wasn’t anticipated. It got in over my pick of The Midnight Sky. Like Animated Feature, expect Soul to reign supreme here.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah, “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7, “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, “lo Si” from The Life Ahead, “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
How I Did: 4/5
The chances of Will Ferrell and Rachel McAdams belting out their ballad from the Netflix comedy Eurovision became a reality! It makes the cut over “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (which also missed Documentary Feature).
Best Production Design
Nominees: The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, News of the World, Tenet
How I Did: 3/5
This is where Mank stands its greatest chance at a victory among the ten nods. The Father and Tenet (both kind of unexpected here) get in over The Midnight Sky and The Trial of the Chicago 7.
Best Sound
Nominees: Greyhound, Mank, News of the World, Soul, Sound of Metal
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
I’ll take it and the winner will probably be the one with the category name in its title.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: Love and Monsters, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, The One and Only Ivan, Tenet
How I Did: 3/5
The One and Only Ivan was my runner-up. Love and Monsters, on the other hand, was not expected. They get in over Mank and Welcome to Chechnya.
To recap, the following pictures nabbed these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Mank
6 Nominations
The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Nomadland, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Better Days, Crip Camp, Da 5 Bloods, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, Greyhound, The Life Ahead, Love and Monsters, The Man Who Sold His Skin, The Midnight Sky, The Mole Agent, My Octopus Teacher, The One and Only Ivan, Onward, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Time, The United States vs. Billie Holiday, The White Tiger, Wolfwalkers
Quick tidbits:
12 of the 20 acting nominees are first-timers (Day, Kirby, Ahmed, Boseman, Yeun, Bakalova, Seyfried, Youn, Cohen, Odom, Raci, Stanfield)
3 are previous nominees (Mulligan, Close, Kaluuya)
5 are previous winners (Davis, McDormand, Hopkins, Oldman, Colman)
Of the five directors, only Fincher has been nominated before and none have won
So this begins the next phase of my Oscar predicting as I will do a “Case Of” post individually for all the Picture, Director, and acting nominees. Yes, that means 33 posts in the next several weeks where I outline the pros and cons of each nominee taking the gold or coming up cold. Stay tuned!
Well… here we are. After about seven months of (mostly) weekly predictions and trying to put the puzzle piece together that is the 2020 Oscar season, my final predictions have arrived. The Academy’s picks will be revealed on Monday morning in a crazy year that includes selections from January and February of 2021. This is the last year where there can be anywhere from 5-10 Best Picture nominees. Next year that shifts to a fixed 10 (thank goodness). I’m sticking with nine since that’s been the average number, but who knows what’ll happen?
In this wild COVID time frame, it’s something to look back at my initial predictions back in August. How many nominations will Dune and The French Dispatch receive? Will Jennifer Hudson nab her second nod for Respect? Can Joaquin Phoenix make it back to back with C’Mon C’Mon? How will West Side Story do? Of course, all of those titles and more have been pushed back to the next Oscar season in a schedule that was ever shifting.
We are left with plenty of serious contenders and some races (the Supporting Acting ones come to mind) that seem especially tricky to project this time around. For each race, I’m revealing my predicted nominees as well as my first and second runners-up. On Monday, I’ll have my reaction to the nominees and how I did. One thing is likely: there will be surprises and snubs. There always are.
Yet after this topsy-turvy Oscar season and thousands of words dedicated to piecing the puzzle together, here’s where I have landed!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
1st Runner-Up: The Father
2nd Runner-Up: News of the World
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
1st Runner-Up: Regina King, One Night in Miami
2nd Runner-Up: Florian Zeller, The Father
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
1st Runner-Up: Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
2nd Runner-Up: Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari
1st Runner-Up: Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian
2nd Runner-Up: Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Yuh-jung Youn, Minari
1st Runner-Up: Amanda Seyfried, Mank
2nd Runner-Up: Helena Zengel, News of the World
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
David Strathairn, Nomadland
1st Runner-Up: Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
2nd Runner-Up: Alan Kim, Minari
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
1st Runner-Up: Sound of Metal
2nd Runner-Up: Soul
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Mauritanian
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
1st Runner-Up: News of the World
2nd Runner-Up: The White Tiger
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
1st Runner-Up: The Willoughbys
2nd Runner-Up: Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
Collective
Dick Johnson Is Dead
My Octopus Teacher
Time
Welcome to Chechnya
1st Runner-Up: All In: The Fight for Democracy
2nd Runner-Up: Boys State
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
Another Round
Dear Comrades!
La Llorona
Quo Vadis, Aida?
Two of Us
1st Runner-Up: Collective
2nd Runner-Up: Night of the Kings
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
1st Runner-Up: Judas and the Black Messiah
2nd Runner-Up: Cherry
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
Ammonite
Emma
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mulan
1st Runner-Up: News of the World
2nd Runner-Up: The Personal History of David Copperfield
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
1st Runner-Up: Mank
2nd Runner-Up: The Father
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
Birds of Prey
Emma
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Pinocchio
1st Runner-Up: Mank
2nd Runner-Up: The Glorias
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Minari
News of the World
Soul
1st Runner-Up: Tenet
2nd Runner-Up: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
“Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah
“Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
“lo Si” from The Life Ahead
“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
“Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy
1st Runner-Up: “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
2nd Runner-Up: “Rain Song” from Minari
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Midnight Sky
News of the World
The Trial of the Chicago 7
1st Runner-Up: Mulan
2nd Runner-Up: Tenet
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal
1st Runner-Up: Nomadland
2nd Runner-Up: Tenet
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
Tenet
Welcome to Chechnya
1st Runner-Up: The One and Only Ivan
2nd Runner-Up: Soul
And this equates to a final tally showing these movies getting these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Minari, The Trial of the Chicago 7
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Nomadland
5 Nominations
Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal
4 Nominations
Judas and the Black Messiah, News of the World, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
The Father, The Midnight Sky, Soul
2 Nominations
Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, The Mauritanian, Mulan, Welcome to Chechnya
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Ammonite, Another Round, Birds of Prey, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Collective, The Croods: A New Age, Dear Comrades!, Dick Johnson Is Dead, Greyhound, La Llorona, The Life Ahead, My Octopus Teacher, Onward, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Pinocchio, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Tenet, Time, Two of Us, The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Wolfwalkers
Be sure to check back Monday for my thoughts on what transpires on nomination morning!
February 21st was the last date I published Oscar predictions and a lot has changed since then. We have had the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. The PGA nominations came out today. All of those events have altered categories below. This also serves as the penultimate estimates as the actual nominations come out a week from today!
Let me break down the big changes in the major races:
In Best Picture, it’s Judas and the Black Messiah in my projected nine nominees. I have finally eliminated Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods from the mix. Contrary to several prognosticators and despite its notable PGA omission, I still have News of the World on my board. Titles like Sound of Metal and The Father still lurk.
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) makes her first appearance for Best Director and that drops Regina King (One Night in Miami)
Steven Yeun (Minari) vaults into the Actor race with Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) falling. In fact, I now only have Bloods getting one nomination and that’s Chadwick Boseman in Supporting Actor. I’m not super confident in that anymore since he appears to a heavy favorite to win Best Actor for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The fifth slot for Supporting Actor is now filled by David Strathairn (Nomadland) over Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Maria Bakalova’s comedic work in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm nabs the fifth Supporting Actress spot over Helena Zengel (News of the World).
In addition to these changes, we have new number ones in Best Picture (Nomadland over Trial), Supporting Actor (Daniel Kaluuya from Judas and the Black Messiah over Sacha Baron Cohen in Trial), and Supporting Actress (The Father‘s Olivia Colman over Hillbilly Elegy‘s Glenn Close).
Now… about Supporting Actress. While Boseman, Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman), and Kaluuya can rightly be called front runners in their respective categories, I’ve never seen Supporting Actress more wide open. I have Colman listed at #1 because she’s the only performer that I’m saying gets a nod with relative confidence. There’s no favorite (or favourite if you will) at the moment. Maybe the SAG Awards will help clear it up. Doubtful.
You can peruse all the activity below and I’ll have my final predictions up this Friday!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Minari (PR: 6)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
8. News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
10. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
11. The Father (PR: 11)
12. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
13. Soul (PR: 13)
14. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
First Cow
Another Round
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 5)
5. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
7. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 7)
8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
9. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
10. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
3. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
4. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 8)
7. Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
9. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 7)
10. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)
5. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 7)
8. Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
3. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 4)
4. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
5. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
6. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)
7. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
8. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
7. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)
8. Jared Leto, The Little Things (PR: 8)
9. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
10. Alan Kim, Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Promising Young Woman (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Minari (PR: 4)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
8. Soul (PR: 9)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 8)
10. Palm Springs (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. First Cow (PR: 5)
7. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 10)
8. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
9. The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The White Tiger (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Emma
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Onward (PR: 4)
4. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 7)
8. Trolls World Tour (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 8)
10, Earwig and the Witch (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Demon Slayer
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Time (PR: 1)
2. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 2)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
4. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 5)
5. Boys State (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Collective (PR: 6)
7. Crip Camp (PR: 7)
8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)
9. 76 Days (PR: 9)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Collective (PR: 5)
4. Two of Us (PR: 4)
5. A Sun (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. La Llorona (PR: 9)
7. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 7)
8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 8)
9. Night of the Kings (PR: 6)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
5. Minari (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 7)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 9)
7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
9. The Glorias (PR: 8)
10. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Father (PR: 6)
7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
8. Tenet (PR: 7)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
One Night in Miami
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 4)
4. Mank (PR: 3)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pinocchio (PR: 6)
7. The Glorias (PR: 7)
8. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey (PR: 10)
9. The Little Things (PR: 9)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Tenet (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Minari (PR: 5)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
9. Ammonite (PR: 10)
10. The Little Things (PR: 8)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “lo Si” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 7)
7. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)
8. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)
9. “Rain Song” from Minari (PR: 8)
10. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 9)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
3. News of the World (PR: 4)
4. Mulan (PR: 9)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 7)
7. Emma (PR: 2)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)
10. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 4)
4. Mank (PR: 3)
5. Greyhound (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
9. Soul (PR: 8)
10. Mulan (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 5)
5. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The One and Only Ivan (PR: 8)
7. Soul (PR: 6)
8. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)
9. Love and Monsters (PR: 9)
10. Bloodshot (PR: 10)
This equates to these pictures nabbing the following numbers:
13 Nominations
Mank
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, News of the World, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
Minari
5 Nominations
Judas and the Black Messiah
4 Nominations
One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman
3 Nominations
The Father, Mulan, The Midnight Sky, Sound of Metal, Tenet
2 Nominations
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Soul, Welcome to Chechnya
1 Nomination
Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, The Croods: A New Age, Da 5 Bloods, Dick Johnson Is Dead, Greyhound, The Life Ahead, Onward, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Two of Us, The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Wolfwalkers
Awards watching season kicks into (later than usual) gear this Sunday with the 78th Annual Golden Globes hosted by Tina Fey and Amy Poehler! While I have not spent time doing weekly posts on this ceremony like I do with the Oscars, it’s certainly a potential sign of things to come from the Academy (and sometimes not so much).
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association is a notoriously tricky bunch to predict as they often call up out of nowhere nominees in their major categories. This year is no exception and that will be discussed below. The pandemic uncertainty that was 2020 and some races that truly feel wild open gives us some real drama as to the pictures and actors who will win on Sunday.
Simply put, I’ll feel good if I get half my predictions right and that’s a lower bar than usual. Let’s walk through each category with my estimated victor and runner-up, shall we?
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees: The Father, Mank, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Despite a better than anticipated showing for Promising Young Woman, this is likely a showdown between Nomadland and Trial (as I suspect it will be for the Oscars). Quite frankly, this is a tough call and basically a coin flip. However, I lean ever so slightly with HFPA going with the more traditional pick and that means Trial.
Predicted Winner: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Runner-Up: Nomadland
Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Hamilton, Music, Palm Springs, The Prom
The inclusion of Sia’s critically drubbed Music stands as one of the more bizarre nods in recent Globes history and that’s saying a lot. Palm Springs certainly has its fervent fans while The Prom once seemed like a potential winner until its mixed reviews. Meryl Streep’s exclusion in the Actress field for it says something as well. So it’s Borat vs. Hamilton in my view. 14 years ago, the original Borat lost out to Dreamgirls. Certainly the overall pedigree and acclaim for Hamilton makes it a possibility, but the attention garnered by Sacha Baron Cohen’s sequel might be too hard to resist.
Predicted Winner: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Runner-Up: Hamilton
Best Director
Nominees: Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman), David Fincher (Mank), Regina King (One Night in Miami), Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
Even with my Trial pick in Picture, Chloe Zhao has emerged as a heavy favorite for the duration of awards season and she has the critics trophies already to prove it. Fincher is probably more of a threat to upset than Sorkin here, but Zhao is one of the safer bets of the night.
Predicted Winner: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Runner-Up: David Fincher, Mank
Best Actress (Drama)
Nominees: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
It’s Davis vs. McDormand vs. Mulligan as I see it and there’s a case to be made for all three. That said, I already mentioned that Promising was a major winner on nomination morning as it achieved nods everywhere it really could have been expected to. I feel it’ll win somewhere and this is the most probable. Had Rainey got a Picture nod, I would probably list Davis as the runner-up, but I’ll go with McDormand instead.
Predicted Winner: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Runner-Up: Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Best Actor (Drama)
Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)
Sunday night could very well be the start of Boseman sweeping his way through the season. I do have a nagging feeling that Hopkins is going to win either here or at SAG. It would not be a shock at all for that to occur yet I’ll stick with Boseman.
Predicted Winner: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Runner-Up: Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Kate Hudson (Music), Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit), Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot), Anya Taylor-Joy (Emma)
Expect Taylor-Joy to win on Sunday night, but not here. Instead she appears bound to get some hardware on the TV side for the heralded Queen’s Gambit. Like the picture itself, Hudson’s nomination was totally unforeseen. Bakalova was the breakout star of Borat. She’s being campaigned for in Supporting Actress at the Oscars, but the HFPA seems destined to honor her. Pfeiffer and Pike are moderate threats and I’ll give the runner-up edge to the former.
Predicted Winner: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Runner-Up: Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), James Corden (The Prom), Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton), Dev Patel (The Personal History of David Copperfield), Andy Samberg (Palm Springs)
Let’s face it: the Golden Globes this year has an excellent chance at turning into the Sacha Baron Cohen Show. He won this race for the first Borat and he’s the odds-on favorite to make it two for two. Miranda poses the only real threat in my opinion.
Nominees: Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Helena Zengel (News of the World)
For Foster and Zengel, it’s an honor to be nominated. As for the other three, this feels like a genuine three performer race in which I could easily foresee Close, Colman, or Seyfried’s name being called. I’m calling this (with zero confidence) for Seyfried as I think HFPA could go with the relative newcomer over Close and Colman (who have each won three Globes).
Predicted Winner: Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Runner-Up: Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (just over Colman)
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Jared Leto (The Little Things), Bill Murray (On the Rocks), Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami)
Another really tough one. It would be right up HFPA’s alley to give Leto the surprise win. And Kaluuya and Odom Jr. are strong possibilities. I don’t feel great about saying Sacha will have this big of a night, but I kinda feel that’s the way this goes. Confidence level? Zilch.
Predicted Winner: Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Runner-Up: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Screenplay
Nominees: The Father, Mank, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7
This is an additional race where voters could choose to honor Promising Young Woman, but Trial is the frontrunner and I’m not picking against it.
Predicted Winner: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Runner-Up: Promising Young Woman
Best Animated Feature Film
Nominees: The Croods: A New Age, Onward, Over the Moon, Soul, Wolfwalkers
Don’t be surprised if this is the same Oscar five with the same result. While Wolfwalkers is a critical darling, it’s risky to bet against Pixar and I won’t do so.
Predicted Winner: Soul
Runner-Up: Wolfwalkers
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Another Round, La Llorona, The Life Ahead, Minari, Two of Us
The smart money is on Minari, which is expected to get a Best Picture nod from the Academy. However, I can’t help but point out that it picked up nominations nowhere else (including Actor, Supporting Actor, and Screenplay where it could have). That opens the door for Another Round which also has ardent supporters. I’m going for the slight upset.
Predicted Winner: Another Round
Runner-Up: Minari
Best Original Score
Nominees: Mank, The Midnight Sky, News of the World, Soul, Tenet
Another category that Oscar could match. And this may come down to Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross vs. themselves for Mank and Soul. I’ll give their Pixar work the edge.
Predicted Winner: Soul
Runner-Up: Mank
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Fight for You” (Judas and the Black Messiah), “Hear My Voice” (The Trial of the Chicago 7), “lo si (Seen)” (The Life Ahead), “Speak Now” (One Night in Miami), “Tigress & Tweed” (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Anything could happen here, but “Speak Now” is a trendy pick for the Oscar and HFPA could follow suit.
Predicted Winner: “Speak Now” (One Night in Miami)
Runner-Up: “lo si (Seen)” from The Life Ahead
That means I’m predicting the following number of wins for these pictures:
3 Wins
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Trial of the Chicago 7
2 Wins
Soul
1 Win
Another Round, Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman
And there you have it! My picks for the Sacha Baron… err, Golden Globes! Let’s see how it shakes out and I’ll have a post up Sunday night with my thoughts about the show and how I performed….
It’s a good week for News of the World and Minari and not so much for The Father with my latest Oscar prediction updates. News is back in my estimated nine Picture nominees and that drops The Father out. Da 5 Bloods is clinging ever so slightly to the nine spot with Judas and the Black Messiah, The Father, and Sound of Metal hot on its heels.
In Director, I’m replacing Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) over Florian Zeller (The Father). In Supporting Actress, Helena Zengel’s Globes/SAG nominated turn in News of the World makes the final cut replacing Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm).
And there’s a new #1 in Actress with Carey Mulligan nabbing the pole position over Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.
You can read about all the movement below! And on a side note, I will have winner predictions for the Golden Globes (airing February 28) up later this week.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
6. Minari (PR: 6)
7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
8. News of the World (PR: 11)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
11. The Father (PR: 8)
12. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
13. Soul (PR: 13)
14. First Cow (PR: 14)
15. Another Round (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
7. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
9. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 2)
2. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 8)
8. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 7)
9. Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)
5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 7)
8. Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
4. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 4)
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)
7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 5)
8. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 6)
8. Jared Leto, The Little Things (PR: 7)
9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)
10. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. Minari (PR: 4)
5. Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 5)
9. Soul (PR: 8)
10. Palm Springs (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
4. The Father (PR: 3)
5. First Cow (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
8. The White Tiger (PR: 8)
9. Emma (PR: 10)
10. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hillbilly Elegy
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 7)
8. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
9. Demon Slayer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Trolls World Tour
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Time (PR: 2)
2. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 1)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
4. Boys State (PR: 4)
5. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Collective (PR: 6)
7. Crip Camp (PR: 5)
8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)
9. 76 Days (PR: 9)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. A Sun (PR: 3)
4. Two of Us (PR: 4)
5. Collective (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Night of the Kings (PR: 6)
7. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 8)
8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 9)
9. La Llorona (PR: 7)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Minari (PR: 5)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
7. Tenet (PR: 6)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Emma (PR: 2)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
8. The Glorias (PR: 8)
9. News of the World (PR: 9)
10. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ammonite
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 7)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Father (PR: 4)
7. Tenet (PR: 6)
8. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Emma (PR: 5)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pinocchio (PR: 6)
7. The Glorias (PR: 7)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
9. The Little Things (PR: 10)
10. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey (PR: 9)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Minari (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 5)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
8. The Little Things (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
10. Ammonite (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Life Ahead
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)
7. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 10)
8. “Rain Song” from Minari (PR: 9)
9. “Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Emma (PR: 2)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 5)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
7. Tenet (PR: 7)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)
9. Mulan (PR: 9)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. News of the World (PR: 5)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
8. Soul (PR: 6)
9. Greyhound (PR: 9)
10. Mulan (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Da 5 Bloods
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
5. Mulan (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul (PR: 7)
7. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 8)
8. The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)
9. Love and Monsters (PR: 9)
10. Bloodshot (PR: 10)
That works out to these pictures grabbing these numbers in term of nominations:
13 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, News of the World
6 Nominations
Minari, Nomadland
5 Nominations
One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods
3 Nominations
Emma, The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal
2 Nominations
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Birds of Prey, Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, Soul, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
Another Round, Boys State, Collective, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, First Cow, The Life Ahead, Onward, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Two of Us, Welcome to Chechnya, Wolfwalkers
We are now precisely one month away from nominations in this elongated Oscar season! The big development from last week was the release of shortlists in six categories covering feature length titles: Documentary Feature, International Feature, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, and Visual Effects. That’s why you’ll see significant changes in those races particularly…
Yet that’s not all as I’ve swapped out some performers and movies in five top tier competitions.
In Best Picture, Promising Young Woman is in my estimated nine and that takes out News of the World
The fifth slot for Best Actress now goes to Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday and this drops Sophia Loren for The Life Ahead
For the first time, I’m listing Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) in Supporting Actress. That means Ellen Burstyn (who’s missed SAG and Globe nods) is on the outside looking in
The screenplay races both have alterations with Never Rarely Sometimes Always in Original Screenplay (over Da 5 Bloods) and First Cow back in Adapted over I’m Thinking of Ending Things
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
6. Minari (PR: 8)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. The Father (PR: 7)
9. Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
11. News of the World (PR: 9)
12. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
13. Soul (PR: 13)
14. First Cow (PR: 14)
15. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 15)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 8)
7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
9. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 5)
8. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 8)
9. Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Kate Winslet, Ammonite
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)
5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 7)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 10)
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
4. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 4)
5. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
7. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 6)
8. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
7. Jared Leto, The Little Things (PR: 6)
8. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)
10. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
4. Minari (PR: 4)
5. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
8. Soul (PR: 7)
9. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
10. Palm Springs (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. First Cow (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 5)
7. News of the World (PR: 6)
8. The White Tiger (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. Emma (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 7)
8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 8)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
10. Trolls World Tour (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Demon Slayer
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
2. Time (PR: 1)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
4. Boys State (PR: 7)
5. Crip Camp (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Collective (PR: 9)
7. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)
9. 76 Days (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Dissident
Totally Under Control
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. A Sun (PR: 5)
4. Two of Us (PR: 4)
5. Collective (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
7. La Llorona (PR: 9)
8. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 7)
9. Dear Comrades! (PR: 8)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Notturno
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Minari (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Emma (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
8. The Glorias (PR: 9)
9. News of the World (PR: 7)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 4)
4. The Father (PR: 3)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 8)
7. News of the World (PR: 5)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Minari
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)
5. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Glorias (PR: Not Ranked)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Little Things (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Trial of the Chicago 7
News of the World
Mulan
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Tenet (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Minari (PR: 8)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
9. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hillbilly Elegy
The Little Things
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
5. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 9)
7. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 7)
9. “Rain Song” from Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon
“Only the Young” from Miss Americana
“Tigress & Tweed” from The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Emma (PR: 3)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
5. News of the World (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
7. Tenet (PR: 10)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
9. Mulan (PR: 5)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Father
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Tenet (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul (PR: 6)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. Greyhound (PR: 8)
10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 9)
4. Mulan (PR: 5)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The One and Only Ivan (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Soul (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Love and Monsters (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bloodshot (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Invisible Man
Greyhound
Wonder Woman 1984
Sonic the Hedgehog
The Call of the Wild
That shakes out to these films getting these numbers in terms of nods:
13 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Minari, News of the World
3 Nominations
Emma, Promising Young Woman, Tenet
2 Nominations
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Birds of Prey, Hillbilly Elegy, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, Soul, Sound of Metal, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Collective, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, First Cow, The Life Ahead, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Onward, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida, A Sun, Time, Two of Us, Wolfwalkers
It was a major week in terms of Oscar forecasting as the Golden Globe and SAG nominations were unveiled this week. You can read all about my reactions to both of those announcements right here:
So… what’s changed? We start in Best Picture with Minari getting back into my estimated nine nominees with Judas and the Black Messiah dropping out. Truth be told, spots 6-11 in the BP derby seem to be constantly moving. Other prognosticators have taken Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods out of the mix after its Globes shutout, but I’m not there yet (especially after its SAG Ensemble nod).
However, I am replacing Spike Lee with Regina King in the Best Director race. In Best Actress, Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) gets the wide open 5 spot over Zendaya (Malcolm & Marie).
The other acting races remain the same as I’ve kept Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman) in Supporting Actress despite her snubs from the Globes and SAG. I definitely toyed with including Helena Zengel (News of the World) over her (she was nominated for both) and that still could happen, but not this week.
Even more surprising was the Globe & SAG omissions of Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) in Best Actor. He’s still clinging to #5 in my predicted nominees. In Supporting Actor, everyone was rather shocked to see Jared Leto (The Little Things) make the list in this week’s nominations. He vaults up to #6 in my possibilities in his first initial ranking, but I still can’t pull the trigger on the Academy naming him.
This Tuesday marks another significant date as we march towards the March 15th nominations. The shortlists will be announced for the following races: Best Documentary Feature Film, International Feature Film, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, and Visual Effects. You can count on those lists altering my estimates next weekend, as they always do.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. The Father (PR: 9)
8. Minari (PR: 10)
9. News of the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10. Promising Young Woman (PR: 11)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
12. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
13. Soul (PR: 13)
14. First Cow (PR: 14)
15. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Malcolm & Marie
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
8. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 8)
9. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)
5. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
8. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 5)
9. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 8)
10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)
5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
7. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
9. Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 5)
5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 9)
7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 6)
8. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, The Little Things (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)
9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)
10. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
4. Minari (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
7. Soul (PR: 7)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. Palm Springs (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 2)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
3. The Father (PR: 4)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
5. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. First Cow (PR: 5)
8. The White Tiger (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Emma (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
French Exit
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 7)
8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 8)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)
10. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Time (PR: 1)
2. The Dissident (PR: 2)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
4. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
5. Crip Camp (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Totally Under Control (PR: 4)
7. Boys State (PR: 6)
8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)
9. Collective (PR: 7)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 4)
4. Two of Us (PR: 8)
5. A Sun (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Collective (PR: 5)
7. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 7)
8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 6)
9. La Llorona (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Notturno (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
My Little Sister
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
9. Minari (PR: 10)
10. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 7)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. The Glorias (PR: 10)
10. Ammonite (PR: 8)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 4)
4. Nomadland (PR: 3)
5. News of the World (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
8. Tenet (PR: 7)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
10. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
8. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Mulan (PR: 7)
10. The Little Things (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Pinocchio
The Prom
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Tenet (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
8. Minari (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
10. The Little Things (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ammonite
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 4)
5. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
7. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 7)
8. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
9. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 10)
10. “Tigress & Tweed” from The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Mulan (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 9)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
9. The Father (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tenet (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Tenet (PR: 2)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul (PR: 7)
7. News of the World (PR: 5)
8. Greyhound (PR: 8)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)
4. Greyhound (PR: 4)
5. Mulan (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
7. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 6)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)
9. Mank (PR: 9)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
And that equates to the following pictures garnering these numbers in nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, News of the World, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Minari, Mulan, Tenet
2 Nominations
Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, The Life Ahead, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Soul, Sound of Metal, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Greyhound, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, The Invisible Man, Night of the Kings, Onward, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Two of Us, Wolfwalkers
If you had told me yesterday that the Kate Hudson’s Music, which is directed by pop star Sia and hasn’t been released yet domestically, would achieve two Golden Globe nominations and that Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods would get zero, I might have said you’re crazy. Yet welcome to Awards Season 2020 as the Hollywood Foreign Press Association weighed in with their nods this morning and provided some genuine shockers (as they normally do).
There’s no doubt that the big loser today was Da 5 Bloods which was shut out while Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman performed better than expected. Much more to discuss so let’s break it down by each category, shall we?
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Nominees: The Father, Mank, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7
How I Did: 3/5
It must be said that The Father had a good morning as well along with Promising. Those two pictures made it in over my predictions of Da 5 Bloods and One Night in Miami. I will note that some pundits had Mank missing the cut, but I’ve never fully bought that it won’t perform well during this awards season.
Best Director
Nominees: Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman), David Fincher (Mank), Regina King (One Night in Miami), Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
How I Did: 4/5
Fennell’s inclusion here is the surest indication of HFPA’s love for her film. She makes it in over Spike Lee for Bloods. The HFPA did make some history in this race with 3 women nominated out of the five.
Best Actress – Drama
Nominees: Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
How I Did: 4/5
This pushes forward the narrative that Davis/Kirby/McDormand/Mulligan are a quartet likely to see SAG and Oscar nods. It’s been the fifth slot up for grabs and Andra Day got there over my prediction for Sophia Loren in The Life Ahead. A GG nod could have helped Loren’s Oscar viability (let’s see if SAG mentions her tomorrow).
Best Actor – Drama
Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)
How I Did: 4/5
The 5 Bloods shutout produced the largest shocker in this particular category with Delroy Lindo being snubbed in favor of Tahar Rahim. Lindo should bounce back at SAG and we’ll know soon enough.
Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy
Nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Hamilton, Music, Palm Springs, The Prom
How I Did: 4/5
As previously stated, this Music pic came out of nowhere and stands as one of the enormous surprises. It got in over Emma. Others had On the Rocks in that spot and it whiffed too.
Best Actress – Musical/Comedy
Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Kate Hudson (Music), Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit), Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot), Anya Taylor-Joy (Emma)
How I Did: 3/5
Once again, Hudson’s name was certainly not expected. Pike’s inclusion is less surprising as I had her as my first alternate. They make the cut over Cristin Milioti (Palm Springs) and another unforeseen development… Meryl Streep (The Prom) not getting her expected nod. That doesn’t happen often.
Best Actor – Musical/Comedy
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), James Corden (The Prom), Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton), Dev Patel (The Personal History of David Copperfield), Andy Samberg (Palm Springs)
How I Did: 4/5
Not many pundits were guessing James Corden’s work in The Prom would be nominated and not his costar Meryl Streep. I had him off in favor of Leslie Odom, Jr. for Hamilton.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Helena Zengel (News of the World)
How I Did: 4/5
Zengel’s inclusion here increases her visibility and if she gets a SAG nomination, her Oscar chances become quite real. The young performer made it in over the legendary Ellen Burstyn in Pieces of a Woman.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Jared Leto (The Little Things), Bill Murray (On the Rocks), Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami)
How I Did: 4/5
With the exception of that Kate Hudson movie, another morning jaw dropper was Jared Leto being recognized for The Little Things. Per another storyline of the day, he replaces Chadwick Boseman in the blanked Da 5 Bloods.
Best Film Screenplay
Nominees: The Father, Mank, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7
How I Did: 3/5
The Father and Promising Young Woman continued their encouraging runs here to the detriment of One Night in Miami and (again) Da 5 Bloods.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: The Croods: A New Age, Onward, Over the Moon, Soul, Wolfwalkers
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Behold the only race where I called it perfectly! Don’t be surprised if this is Oscar’s quintet as well.
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Another Round, La Llorona, The Life Ahead, Minari, Two of Us
How I Did: 3/5
Llorona and Two were named over Martin Eden and Quo Vadis, Aida? in a lineup that should come down to Round or (more likely) Minari.
Best Original Score
Nominees: Mank, The Midnight Sky, News of the World, Soul, Tenet
How I Did: 4/5
No big surprise that Midnight Sky got in over Minari. This could well by the Oscar lineup.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah, “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7, “Seen” from The Life Ahead, “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami, “Tigress & Tweed” from The United State vs. Billie Holiday
How I Did: 2/5
An unpredictable group of songs for awards consideration proved to be just that with my worst performance of the day. It was “Fight”, “Voice” and “Tigress” in over “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest, “Only the Young” from Miss Americana, and “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon.
How I Did Overall: 51/70
That shakes out to the following number of nods for these pictures:
6 Nominations
Mank
5 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
4 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman
3 Nominations
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, One Night in Miami
2 Nominations
Hamilton, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Mauritanian, Music, News of the World, Palm Springs, The Prom, Soul, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
Another Round, The Croods: A New Age, Emma, French Exit, Hillbilly Elegy, I Care a Lot, La Llorona, The Little Things, The Midnight Sky, Minari, On the Rocks, Onward, Over the Moon, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet, Two of Us, Wolfwalkers
You can expect predictions in all these races a couple of days before showtime on February 28th!
Political legal drama The Mauritanian, which tells of the true life trial of a Guantanamo Bay prisoner, hits theaters on February 19th and its embargo lifted this week. Kevin Macdonald, who directed Forest Whitaker to a Best Actor Oscar in The Last King of Scotland, is behind the camera with a cast headlined by Jodie Foster, Tahar Rahim, Shailene Woodley, Benedict Cumberbatch, and Zachary Levi.
Critical reaction thus far is quite mixed with a 55% score on Rotten Tomatoes. Distributor STX Entertainment has already announced the category placements of Rahim for lead actor and two-time winner Foster for Supporting Actress. They are the two performers getting the most praise for their work.
However, the subject matter and the so-so feedback will present a challenge for The Mauritanian to reach audiences and awards voters. Two years ago, the similarly themed The Report had a much better Tomatoes rating (82%) and a thought that Annette Bening could contend in Supporting Actress. That never materialized and I’d be surprised if this ends up being a player in a couple of months. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 