Dune: Part Two looks to storm the box office when it debuts on March 1st with what should easily be the largest debut so far in 2024. Denis Villeneuve returns as director with Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Charlotte Rampling, and Javier Bardem back in action. Newcomers to the franchise include Austin Butler, Florence Pugh, Christopher Walken, Léa Seydoux, and Anya Taylor Joy.
The follow-up to the 2021 original could double its opening. As you may recall, Dune experienced a COVID delay from fall 2020 to fall 2021. The pandemic still limited its potential as it simultaneously premiered on Max. That resulted in a $41 million start which was quite impressive for that period of time. It wrapped up its run at $110 million domestically.
At its low end, Part Two is expected to take in $60 million out of the gate. Reviews for the continuation of Frank Herbert’s source material top part one and it’s currently at 98% on RT with plenty of Oscar nominations expected months down the road. The high end of its range is $80 million or even $90 million.
I am forecasting this could get to the low to mid 80s for the aforementioned double up of its predecessor with a little room to spare.
Dune: Part Two opening weekend prediction: $83.6 million
In 2021, Denis Villeneuve’s vision of Dune generated 10 Oscar nods and six victories. The eagerly awaited Dune: Part Two sweeps into theaters on March 1 (this time with no simultaneous release date on Max). It is expected to outdo its predecessor in terms of box office numbers (my financial estimate is hitting the blog shortly). Part Two may also match or exceed the original’s nomination count.
The review embargo lifted today and the current RT score is a dazzling 97%. That’s up over the 83% that Dune had. Many critics claim it improves upon part one in every way. Villeneuve returns to direct. Among the sprawling cast, we have Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Charlotte Rampling, and Javier Bardem back in the mix. Newcomers to the franchise include Austin Butler, Florence Pugh, Christopher Walken, Léa Seydoux, and Anya Taylor Joy.
At the 94th Academy Awards, Dune‘s took gold in tech races Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Had Part Two not been pushed from 2023 to 2024, it would likely be in serious competition with Oppenheimer and others in those competitions. It would have Visual Effects locked up. Dune ’21 also had nominations for Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Makeup & Hairstyling.
Let’s be clear. Based on the reaction out today, Part Two should vie for inclusion in all those categories… and more. You may recall that Villeneuve was notably snubbed in Director three years back. The Academy might make up for that this time around.
Then there’s the actors and that’s trickier. Ferguson got a little ink as a possibility for Supporting Actress for Dune. For the sequel, expect the same for Chalamet and especially Butler as the villainous Feyd-Rautha. It is also possible the cast will be ignored. For the Lord of the Rings trilogy, only Ian McKellen ever managed a nomination for the initial chapter.
Bottom line: Part Two looks like 2024’s first surefire contender in BP and much more (it is hard to imagine it losing derbies like Cinematography and Visual Effects). The 96th ceremony hasn’t aired yet, but the 97th seems to have truly started with this embargo lapsing. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It is the weekend of “Barbenheimer” as Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer are posting fantastic results at the box office. With their review embargoes lifted, the always to be inextricably linked pics have established themselves as Oscar players.
When I did my previous predictions two weeks ago, one of the questions centered on which performers could be singled out for recognition. Obviously we knew about Cillian Murphy and Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling’s supporting turn, but what else? The answer it seems is Robert Downey Jr. and Emily Blunt for Oppenheimer and maybe America Ferrera for Barbie. Matt Damon is still worth mentioning for Oppenheimer, but Downey Jr. clearly has the most significant buzz.
And… surprise! This is the first write-up where I am including all races covering feature-length motion pictures. I do so at a precarious time. While “Barbenheimer” is viable in many competitions, the release calendar for the remainder of 2023 is unpredictable.
That is, of course, due to the SAG-AFTRA strike and a fear that it could drag on for weeks or months. On Friday, Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers gave up its prime spot opening the Venice Film Festival and moved from September to April 2024. If you believe it’ll be the last movie to do so, think again. There’s already rumors that Dune: Part Two and/or The Color Purple (two potential heavy hitters) could move to ’24. I am keeping all currently scheduled titles in the mix until I hear different. Just know that some of the projects listed below may not be here for long.
Sometimes a trailer can either boost your hopes for a film’s awards potential or dilute it. I could be wrong, but Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers is an example of the latter when its first look was revealed this week. Soon enough we’ll see if my first impression was on the money.
For these initial projections covering all races, I’ll keep it at 25 possibilities for BP and 15 for the other top of the line derbies (the four acting ones and two screenplay contests). For all others, I will list my top 10.
With all that said, let’s get into it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-1)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)
7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Air (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Maestro (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Barbie (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Poor Things (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-6)
15. Napoleon (PR: 16) (+1)
16. May December (PR: 15) (-1)
17. Asteroid City (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Rustin (PR: 21) (+2)
20. The Piano Lesson (PR: 19) (-1)
21. The Killer (PR: 25) (+4)
22. Ferrari (PR: 24) (+2)
23. BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (-1)
25. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-4)
14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Ben Affleck, Air
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)
15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Zendaya, Challengers
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)
10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)
14. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Andre Holland, The Actor
Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-3)
12. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, Oppenheimer
Tilda Swinton, The Killer
Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love
Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Jesse Plemons, Killers. of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Richard E. Grant, Saltburn
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saltburn (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Air (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rustin (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Napoleon (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Drive Away Dolls (PR: 13) (+2)
12. The Book of Clarence (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Boy and the Heron (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Fair Play (PR: 11) (-3)
15. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Barbie (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (E)
9. BlackBerry (PR: 14) (+5)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
11. The Killer (PR: 15) (+4)
12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Next Goal Wins (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Freud’s Last Session (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest
2. Anatomy of a Fall
3. Monster
4. About Dry Grasses
5. The Pot-au-Feu
Other Possibilities:
6. The Boy and the Heron
7. Perfect Days
8. The Delinquents
9. Fallen Leaves
10. La Chimera
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2. The Boy and the Heron
3. Elemental
4. Wish
5. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Other Possibilities:
6. Nimona
7. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
8. Robot Dreams
9. The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol
10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Beyond Utopia
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
3. The Eternal Memory
4. The Mother of All Lies
5. Wild Life
Other Possibilities:
6. 20 Days in Mariupol
7. Every Body
8. Kokomo City
9. Black Ice
10. It Ain’t Over
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Napoleon
5. The Color Purple
Other Possibilities:
6. The Killer
7. Poor Things
8. The Zone of Interest
9. Ferrari
10. Asteroid City
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie
2. Dune: Part Two
3. The Color Purple
4. Poor Things
5. Killers of the Flower Moon
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon
7. Chevalier
8. Oppenheimer
9. Wonka
10. Asteroid City
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer
4. Past Lives
5. Air
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple
7. Saltburn
8. Maestro
9. The Killer
10. Napoleon
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Poor Things
3. Maestro
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
5. Barbie
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon
7. Golda
8. Beau is Afraid
9. The Color Purple
10. Priscilla
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Elemental
5. Past Lives
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
8. Napoleon
9. The Zone of Interest
10. The Killer
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from “The Color Purple”
2. “The Wish” from Wish
3. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
4. “Just Ken” from Barbie
5. TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Other Possibilities:
6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady
7. “Steal the Show” from Elemental
8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie
9. “Quiet Eyes” From Past Lives
10. “Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Oppenheimer
4. Poor Things
5. Napoleon
Other Possibilities:
6. Barbie
7. Asteroid City
8. The Zone of Interest
9. The Color Purple
10. Wonka
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Napoleon
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Spider-Man: Acrossthe Spider-Verse
Other Possibilities:
6. Ferrari
7. The Color Purple
8. Maestro
9. The Zone of Interest
10. The Killer
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Oppenheimer
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
4. The Creator
5. Wonka
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon
7. Killers of the Flower Moon
8. Poor Things
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
10. Spaceman
And that, ladies and gents, gives us the following number of nominations for these pictures:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
8 Nominations
The Color Purple
7 Nominations
Past Lives
6 Nominations
Barbie
5 Nominations
Poor Things
4 Nominations
Air, Anatomy of a Fall
3 Nominations
Maestro, Napoleon, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest
2 Nominations
Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
About Dry Grasses, The Boy and the Heron, Beyond Utopia, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, Long Day’s Journey Into Night, May December, Monster, The Mother of All Lies, The Pot-au-Feu, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wild Life, Wonka
The key to the Mission: Impossible movies are the set pieces that continue to wow us in a way few other franchises do. This has been amped up in the Christopher McQuarrie era that began with 2015’s Rogue Nation, continued with Fallout three years later, and now with Dead Reckoning Part One. Tom Cruise and his director appear determined to outdo themselves when it comes to Romanian car chases and battles set aboard the Orient Express and motorcycle stunts that defy gravity. In the seventh M:I saga, there’s also a welcome dose of humor that’s occasionally reminiscent of Roger Moore’s Bond stretch. We’re not talking Moonraker. I’m referring to the high point of that run in 1977’s The Spy Who Loved Me where elements of the plot might be borderline silly, but we don’t care because the stunts and choreography are thrilling us.
Cruise’s Ethan Hunt has entered the elder statesman portion of his service to the Impossible Missions Force (IMF). He should be making retirement plans. However, disavowed MI6 colleague Ilsa (Rebecca Ferguson) is partially responsible for the latest assignment. She possesses half of a key that could unlock the secrets to the Entity, an AI device that’s working overtime to retire defense systems across the globe. Their mission that they always choose to accept is finding the other half of that key to bring this dangerous new world to a semblance of order. The usual colleagues Luther (Ving Rhames) and Benji (Simon Pegg) join in while master thief Grace (Hayley Atwell) is a fresh addition. For her set of skills, she’s sought after by arms dealer Alanna (Vanessa Kirby) from Fallout to broker her own deal with the key. Yet Grace might be exactly the kind of recruit that IMF employs. She’s absolutely a value add with Atwell’s spirited performance.
There are callbacks in Dead Reckoning that dive deeper into our main character’s backstory than ever before. It’s well established that Ethan will do whatever it takes for his profession and we’re getting more clues as to why. I suspect the fleshing out will go on in part two. The screenplay does a commendable job of (for the first time) explaining why the IMFers keep accepting these missions rather than politely declining. Another form of callback comes with Kittridge (Henry Czerny), who hasn’t been seen since his iconic appearance in 1996’s original. His duplicitous presence is a bonus.
With the notable exception of Philip Seymour Hoffman in M:I III (2006), villains haven’t overshadowed the heroes in the quarter century plus canon and that’s accurate here. Esai Morales as Gabriel is a shadowy figure whose motives may not see the light until the second part. Considering the Entity he represents, he’s not actually the main antagonist. When it comes to those opposing IMF, Kirby and Pom Klementieff as a quietly deadly assassin are the most memorable.
Ultimately it’s those lengthy chases and fights that make Dead Reckoning the summertime adventure delight that it is. I’d put it a tad behind 2011’s Ghost Protocol and predecessor Fallout in the official rankings. Cruise and McQuarrie know their formula. Nobody does it better, it makes you feel bad for the rest, and it can make the rest look artificial.
The first July predictions for the 96th Academy Awards shall be known as the pre Barbie and Oppenheimer edition. They are eagerly awaited efforts from Greta Gerwig and Christopher Nolan, respectively, that are hoping to become giant blockbusters and awards players. July 21st marks the release date for both. When my next forecast arrives in a couple of weeks, reviews and buzz and financial numbers for the pair will be available.
Since June 25th (my previous update), there’s not been too much news. We have some new trailers including Bob Marley: One Love with Kingsley Ben-Adir as the iconic reggae singer. Interestingly all the promotional materials are advertising a January 12th premiere. I’m still assuming it will get a December limited release to qualify for contention. It is something worth keeping an eye on. I will say that I found the trailer to be somewhat lackluster. With the release date confusion, I’ve taken it out of my top 25 in BP while keeping Ben-Adir and Lashana Lynch in their acting derbies.
Frequent readers will know that releases dates are always shifting. I’m putting The Piano Lesson back in the mix even though it might not be out until 2024. You’ll see it emerge back into several competitions below.
Festivals are beginning to tease their lineups. Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers will open Venice in September while Taika Waititi’s Next Goal Wins is tapped for Toronto. Expect plenty more announcement in the coming days and weeks.
In Best Actor, I’ve elevated Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) to #1 over Colman Domingo. That puts Killers atop the charts in Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay. We’ll see how long its dominance lasts as other heavy hitters screen over the next few months.
As we await the Barbie and Oppenheimer reactions, here’s my speculation as to where everything stands for the eight top categories.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)
7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Poor Things (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Air (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)
12. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Barbie (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 12) (-2)
15. May December (PR: 15) (E)
16. Napoleon (PR: 18) (+2)
17. Challengers (PR: 17) (E)
18. Asteroid City (PR: 16) (-2)
19. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Rustin (PR: 20) (-1)
22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Ferrari (PR: 24) (E)
25. The Killer (PR: 21) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Bob Marley: One Love
How Do You Live?
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 14) (E)
15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
David Fincher, The Killer
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)
7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: 15) (+3)
13. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Florence Pugh, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Halle Bailey, The Color Purple
Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon
Claire Foy, Strangers
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mike Faist, Challengers
Josh O’Connor, Challengers
Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saltburn (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Air (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Rustin (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)
12. The Book of Clarence (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Drive-Away Dolls (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Barbie (moved to Adapted)
Bob Marley: One Love
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+4)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (-1)
Paramount hopes to post franchise best numbers for Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Tom Cruise’s action series that began some 27 years ago and has now reached its seventh installment. It opens Wednesday, July 12th and is the third M:I pic in a row directed by Christopher McQuarrie. Ving Rhames, Simon Pegg, Rebecca Ferguson, Vanessa Kirby, and Henry Czerny (returning for the first time since part 1) reprise their roles with Hayley Atwell, Esai Morales, and Pom Klementieff as newly assigned cast.
With a 98% Rotten Tomatoes rating, Reckoning is receiving the same acclaim that greeted predecessors Ghost Protocol (2011), Rogue Nation (2015), and Fallout (2018). Perhaps most importantly, this should benefit from being Cruise’s follow-up to last year’s box office phenomenon that was Top Gun: Maverick. It was easily summer 2022’s (and the year’s) largest grosser and the goodwill left over could launch this Mission to new heights.
In order to do so, Part One (part two is out in a year) would need to top the $61 million that Fallout took in five summers ago in its debut. With a Wednesday head start, a five-day haul over $100 million is certainly achievable.
The Mission movies traditionally leg out nicely throughout the season. With the exception of Ghost Protocol, all have premiered in summer. Many older filmgoers that will make the theatrical trek may not rush out opening weekend.
I’ll project low to mid 70s for the Friday to Sunday earnings as it should come awfully close and potentially exceed nine figures from Wednesday to the weekend’s end.
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One opening weekend prediction: $72.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $102.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Arriving five years after Mission: Impossible – Fallout and one year following the biggest hit of his career, Tom Cruise returns as IMF agent Ethan Hunt in Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One on July 12th. The seventh feature in the franchise that began in the summer of 1996 looks to be one of this season’s largest domestic and worldwide earners.
The review embargo ended yesterday and the current results are a sizzling 98% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s currently the highest of the group though the last three entries have all topped 90% – 2011’s Ghost Protocol (93%), 2015’s Rogue Nation (94%), and Fallout at 97%. While Reckoning can boast the best percentage for now, numerous critics are putting it in the middle as far as best of for the series. In other words, don’t expect this to nab a Best Picture nomination like Cruise’s phenomenon Top Gun: Maverick did last year.
While the Daniel Craig James Bond pics and the Jason Bourne movies can boast nods from the Academy, the six previous M:I installments have netted a surprising total of zero mentions. It’s too bad a stunt category doesn’t exist, but it’s also been ignored in Sound and Visual Effects.
Sound seems to be the strongest chance though I wouldn’t count on it. Oppenheimer and certainly Dune: Part Two likely have reserved spots and if Fallout couldn’t make that cut, it might be 0 for 7 for this franchise. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As the month of May closes out, we arrive at my post Cannes forecast for the 96th Academy Awards! There were heavy hitters premiering in the south of France and buzz to discuss for several of them.
One year ago, Triangle of Sadness took the Palme d’Or (the fest’s top prize) and it eventually became a Best Picture contender at the Oscars. Ruben Östlund, Triangle‘s director who served as this year’s jury president, was also nominated for his behind the camera work.. In 2023, Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall won the biggest honor. The French courtroom drama established itself as a major factor in International Feature Film and it is feasible that it could nab a slot in the eventual BP ten.
Other films that solidified their statuses as Academy bait? We start with Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon. The three and a half hour epic maintains its #1 position in Picture, Director, Supporting Actress (Lily Gladstone), and Supporting Actor after many raves at Cannes. However, the Supporting Actor in first is Robert De Niro and not Jesse Plemons, who was perched there two weeks ago. Reviews indicate it’s De Niro who should have the better shot.
Let’s be clear. My rankings right now reflect who I believe will be nominated and not necessarily who I think will win (it’s simply too early for that). Killers looks to be in a fantastic position for multiples nods after its unveiling.
Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest is right behind Moon as far as significant chatter out of the festival. The Holocaust drama could contend in Pic and Director. So could lead actress Sandra Hüller. Yet she might have an even stronger chance for her performance in Anatomy of a Fall.
For May December from Todd Haynes, reviews were quite solid. Its best chances at inclusion could be for its trio of actors Natalie Portman, Julianne Moore, and Charles Melton. We’re still not sure if Portman and Moore will be co-campaigned for lead. For now I’m slotting the former in Actress and the latter in supporting.
Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City drew plaudits though mixed reaction elsewhere. I’m skeptical of its chances (though it could play in down-the-line races like Production Design and Score).
Then there’s the features that dropped out of contention. Pixar’s Elemental won’t be the first studio title to vie for BP since Toy Story 3. It might be lucky to get an Animated Feature mention after some lackluster reaction. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny will not be a Top Gun: Maverick style hopeful for Oscars. And the fest’s opener Jeanne du Barry with Johnny Depp might get a Costume Design nod and that’s all.
In 2022, I made predictions for the 95th Academy Awards on this same day. It yielded 3 of the eventual 10 BP nominees with eventual winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, and Women Talking. Four others (Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick) were named in Other Possibilities. I wasn’t ready to anoint Triangle of Sadness despite its Cannes hardware. In Director – I correctly named the victorious Daniels for Everything Everywhere and Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. With Best Actress, I had Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere) who would take the gold. Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Ana de Armas (Blonde) were Other Possibilities. I will note that I had Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) listed in supporting and she was nominated in lead. For Actor, winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale) were correctly called with Austin Butler (Elvis) listed. Both Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Paul Mescal (Aftersun) were Other Possibilities. None of the five contenders in Supporting Actress were rightly placed. I did have winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere), her costar Stephanie Hsu, and Hong Chau (The Whale) in Other Possibilities. Finally, Ke Huy Quan (who took the statue) for Everything Everywhere was the only correctly tagged performer in Supporting Actor.
OK… deep breath. With all that context, let’s see where everything and everyone ranks…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)
6. Saltburn (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 15) (+8)
8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Air (PR: 9) (E)
10. Poor Things (PR: 6) (-4)
Other Possibilities:
11. May December (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Maestro (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Challengers (PR: 14) (E)
15. Blitz (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Barbie (PR: 12) (-4)
17. Napoleon (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Rustin (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Flint Strong (PR: 17) (-2)
20. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 16) (-4)
21. The Nickel Boys (PR: 21) (E)
22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (E)
23. The Killer (PR: 19) (-4)
24. Asteroid City (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Ferrari (PR: 23) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Strangers
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 14) (+9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Todd Haynes, May December
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (E)
8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (E)
13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)
15. Jane Levy, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Regina King, Shirley
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)
8. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (E)
11. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (E)
14. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 12) (-2)
15. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Scott, Strangers
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)
5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (E)
12. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 13) (E)
14. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 14) (E)
15. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Claire Foy, Strangers
Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+7)
4. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (+4)
5. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilties:
6. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-9)
11. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 14) (-1)
My second round of ranked predictions in the six major categories for the 96th Academy Awards comes two days before the 76th Annual Cannes Film Festival gets underway in the south of France. It will conclude on May 27th and you can expect my third round of forecasts shortly thereafter.
At Cannes, we will receive our first reviews and buzz for numerous heavy hitters. Those pictures include Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, May December from Todd Haynes, Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City, Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest, Monster from Hirokazu Kore-eda, Firebrand with Alicia Vikander, Pixar’s Elemental, and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.
Here is my pre-Cannes outlook on Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies and let’s see how this gets shook up in a couple of weeks!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)
6. Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Holdovers (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Air (PR: 9) (E)
10. May December (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)
12. Barbie (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Blitz (PR: 13) (E)
14. Challengers (PR: 8) (-6)
15. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
16. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 15) (-1)
17. Flint Strong (PR: 19) (+2)
18. Napoleon (PR: 16) (-2)
19. The Killer (PR: 21) (+2)
20. Rustin (PR: 20) (E)
21. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+3)
22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 17) (-5)
23. Ferrari (PR: 23) (E)
24. Strangers (PR: 18) (-6)
25. Asteroid City (PR: 22) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The Bikeriders
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Todd Haynes, May December (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (E)
11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Luca Guadagnino, Challengers
David Fincher, The Killer
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 3) (-5)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (E)
13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)
15. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (moved to Supporting)
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (E)
9. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 14) (+5)
10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (E)
11. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 11) (E)
12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 5) (-7)
13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)
14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Andrew Scott, Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Andre Holland, The Actor
Paul Mescal, Strangers (moved to Supporting)
Adam Driver, Ferrari
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (E)
9. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked, moved from lead)
12. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders
Moon Seung-ah, Past Lives
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+5)
8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Jeremy Strong, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Denis Villeneuve’s Dune arrives nearly three decades after David Lynch’s oft criticized version of Frank Herbert’s mid 60s sci-fi novel. It is source material that I’m frankly not familiar with so take that for what it’s worth. With the director of Arrival and Blade Runner 2049 at the controls, this is a technically masterful and consistently stunning looking experience. I also must admit that I didn’t get swept up in it no matter how amazing the desert landscapes appear (and do they ever).
Set 10,000 years in the future, the dense plot (as in often hard to follow) introduces us to the royal family of Caladan. Duke Leto (Oscar Isaac) is the leader of House Atreides, a land with a plentiful supply of water and bagpipes. His concubine is Lady Jessica (Rebecca Ferguson) who possesses the powers of Bene Gesserit, a sisterhood of mystical beings thought to bear children with God-like abilities. Their offspring is Paul (Timothee Chalamet). One problem: the Lady was supposed to have a girl who eventually delivers this story’s version of The One, but she skipped a step.
The Atreides are ordered by Empirical decree to take over Arrakis, a planet with hardly any water (I’m uncertain about bagpipes). However, it is the only land with spice and that substances serves many purposes. First, it gets you high and gives one visions that might play into the plot later. Most importantly, it fuels interstellar travel and is therefore an extraordinarily valuable commodity. It’s what Gollum would be droning on endlessly about if this were another epic adventure. House Harkonnen and their rotund ruler (Stellan Skarsgard), the current Arrakis deed holders, are not going to give up those property rights without a fight.
We sense where all this is heading due to Paul’s visions of Chani (Zendaya). She’s a native of Arrakis and their citizens called the Fremen have learned to use their planet’s sandy and almost unlivable terrain to their advantage. They will need to accept Paul as their captain and that development… will or won’t happen in part two. Yes, part one is a subtitle here. Like some Marvel products that preceded this, you may find yourself realizing that not a lot really happens in this origin tale by the time two and a half hours has lapsed.
I recognize this may sound like sacrilege to the book’s devotees. There is plenty to praise in this immensely gifted director’s adaptation. The cast is uniformly top notch from Chalamet on down (FYI – Zendaya is a part II kinda thing because her participation is limited). Ferguson is perhaps the standout in a sprawling ensemble that includes Josh Brolin (as a trusted Atreides warrior), Javier Bardem (as a Fremen warrior), and Charlotte Rampling as a Reverend Mother of the Bene Gesserit.
Dune worshipers forgive me. While I spent time marveling at the look and anticipating the unearthing of giant sandworms, I would put this behind Arrival and the Blade Runner follow-up without hesitation. Saying it feels like half a movie is easy criticism. That doesn’t mean it’s not true. It is tempting to recommend Dune based on spectacular work of composer Hans Zimmer and cinematographer Greig Fraser and the sound and visual effects artists. Yet I often found myself a bit shocked by my lack of awe in the story itself.
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