Tag: Léa Seydoux

99th Academy Awards Predictions: September 27th Edition

We are now officially in the autumn phase of Oscar predicting mode. The New York Film Festival has just started where we will get our first reviews and official WOM for Behemoth! and Artificial, among others. Venice, Telluride, and Toronto have wrapped with the latter bestowing its Oscar bellwether People’s Choice Award to The Black Ball. In my view, that helps solidify what I’ve been projecting for months that Ball is a legit threat to The Odyssey for Best Picture. There’s a reason I’ve had them 1-2 for quite some time.

The London Film Festival is also around the corner and it’s notable for the premiere of Wildwood and Ray Gunn, two titles that could majorly shake up the Best Animated Feature competition.

Review embargoes will also lift in the coming days for Digger and The Social Reckoning. I’m skeptical about both regarding their awards viability in the highest profile races but the picture will become far clearer by the next update.

The fall season also means I’m condensing my picks and possibilities in the major categories. Best Picture is being whittled from 25 to 15 with the directing and acting derbies going from 15 to 10 hopefuls. That’s why the list of movies, filmmakers, and thespians dropping out below is extensive.

You can read all the movement below and my next update will arrive in a couple weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Debut (PR: 4) (-1)

6. The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Obsession (PR: 8) (-1)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. I Play Rocky (PR: 16) (+5)

12. Fjord (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Possible Love (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Elsinore (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Digger (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Michael

Ink

Club Kid

You Can See Everything

The Social Reckoning

Werwulf

Being Heumann

Primetime

Josephine

Sense and Sensibility

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)

5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: 12) (+2)

Dropped Out:

Cristian Mungiu, Fjord

Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

Curry Barker, Obsession

Danny Boyle, Ink

Robert Eggers, Werwulf

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 4) (E)

5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster

Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

Mason Reeves, Josephine

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 2) (E)

3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)

5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)

8. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

Seth Rogen, The Invite

Andrew Garfield, Artificial

Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

Jordan Firstman, Club Kid

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)

3. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

Sandra Hüller, Digger

Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

Gillian Anderson, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma

Eva Victor, Behemoth!

Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

Elizabeth Debicki, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (-1)

4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 11) (+1)

Dropped Out:

John Goodman, Digger

Skyler Gisondo, Primetime

Riz Ahmed, Digger

Channing Tatum, Josephine

Tom Holland, The Odyssey

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Tender Loving Care (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Possible Love (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Club Kid (PR: 5) (-3)

9. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Elsinore

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ink (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. Primetime (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. All of a Sudden (PR: 2) (E)

3. Possible Love (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Minotaur (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Everytime (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Rose (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Coward (PR: 9) (E)

10. Woman Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Silent Friend

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Iron Boy (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tangles (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Hoppers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (+1)

9. In Waves (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: Not Ranked)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. NAZA (PR: 1) (E)

2. You Can See Everything (PR: 2) (E)

3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Doctor (PR: 4) (E)

5. One in a Million (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. 14th (PR: 6) (E)

7. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The History of Concrete (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nuisance Bear (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Closure

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Being Heumann (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Debut (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Michael (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

9. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

All of a Sudden

Fjord

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Digger (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)

9. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Digger (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mother Mary

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Debut (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)

9. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

You Can See Everything

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Clayface (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rose (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Wicker (PR: 5) (-3)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Bride! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Elsinore

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (E)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Debut (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Werwulf

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (+1)

2. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 1) (-2)

4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 4) (E)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: 6) (E)

7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Too Much to Ask” from Ray Gunn (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Save the Day” from Hoppers

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Werwulf (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Backrooms (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wild Horse Nine

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Debut (PR: 9) (E)

10. Werwulf (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Digger

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 8) (+5)

4. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)

7. Whalefall (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (E)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10 (E)

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

16 Nominations

The Odyssey

10 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

7 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

All of a Sudden, The Debut, Dune: Part Three, The Invite

5 Nominations

Behemoth!

3 Nominations

Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

Digger, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

American Doctor, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Clayface, Fatherland, Fjord, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Iron Boy, Michael, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Tender Loving Care, Wildwood, You Can See Everything

Oscar Predictions: The Unknown

Arthur Harari’s psychological thriller The Unknown premiered at Cannes and is working its way through the festival circuit with stops planned in Toronto and New York. The director is best known for cowriting the Oscar winning screenplay for 2022’s Anatomy of a Fall. The body swapping tale stars Léa Seydoux with a supporting cast including Niels Schneider, Victoire Du Bois, and Radu Jude.

Reaction from the French Riviera was tempered in its praise. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 68% with 62 on Metacritic. I don’t see this as an awards contender and any attention for Seydoux’s acting will probably be for Gentle Monster (another Cannes debut with mixed notices). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

99th Academy Awards Predictions: June 28th Edition

As we move closer to knowing whether Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey deserves its placeholder #1 rankings in Best Picture and Director, we have seen some new trailers for consideration in the two weeks since my last update. I have said that you can’t judge a movie by its trailer, but we can look for clues about who the studio will focus on.

Jesse Eisenberg’s follow-up to A Real Pain (which won Kieran Culkin a Supporting Actor Oscar) is not titled No One Cares (which was rumored to be a working name). The first preview reveals it is called The Debut with hints that it’s a somewhat of two-hander between Julianne Moore and Paul Giamatti. That said, I still have Halle Bailey listed as a possibility in Supporting Actress.

We got our first glimpse of Georgia Oakley’s Sense and Sensibility with Daisy Edgar-Jones and Esmé Creed-Miles vying for noms. And we witnessed a Digger promotional ad that certainly indicated the studio will be all in on Tom Cruise.

Also in the past two weeks, Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day has proven to be a box office disappointment. In my estimation, its chances in BP and Emily Blunt in Best Actress have gone down.

Toy Story 5 also opened and while reviews were fine, many critics deemed it the weakest of the quintet. Unlike Toy Story 3 and like Toy Story 4, it should reserve a slot in Best Animated Feature but not Best Picture.

Finally, The Invite from Olivia Wilde opened in limited fashion before a nationwide rollout in July. Word-of-mouth is strong and I’m beginning to think it could at least manage an Adapted Screenplay nod… if not more.

You can read all the movement below including a new #1 in Best Actress and some serious shifts in Supporting Actress!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Obsession (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Place in Hell (PR: !3) (+2)

12. The Social Reckoning (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (+2)

14. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Fatherland (PR: 16) (+1)

16. Behemoth! (PR: 17) (+1)

17. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

18. Werwulf (PR: 18) (E)

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 20) (+1)

20. Disclosure Day (PR: 14) (-6)

21. Josephine (PR: 21) (E)

22. Jack of Spades (PR: 19) (-3)

23. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Michael (PR: 23) (-1)

25. Club Kid (PR: 25) (E)

Dropped Out:

Being Heumann

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (E)

14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (E)

15. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Robert Eggers, Werwulf

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR 8) (+1)

8. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (E)

12. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (E)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: 14) (E)

15. Zendaya, The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Guitarricadelfuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Jordan Firstman, Club Kid

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)

3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 11) (+4)

8. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 3) (-7)

11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Elizbeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (E)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 9) (+1)

9. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 8) (-5)

14. Milo Quifes, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tom Holland, The Odyssey

Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven

Owen Cooper, Cry to Heaven

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Debut (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Obsession (PR: 6) (E)

7. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (E)

8. Club Kid (PR: 9) (E)

9. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York City (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (E)

11. Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Fatherland (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Primetime (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Saturn Return (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Drama

Disclosure Day

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Invite (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cry to Heaven (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Prima Facie (PR: 11) (E)

12. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (E)

13. Minotaur (PR: 15) (+2)

14. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tony

99th Academy Awards Predictions: June 14th Edition

It’s been two weeks since my last round of predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting competitions. With mid-June upon us, I am now adding my first takes on the two screenplay derbies.

What’s changed in the last two weeks? In my estimation, Obsession has picked up considerable momentum with its astonishing box office performance. I am now vaulting the low-budget horror smash from #25 all the way into the BP lineup. Additionally, I am now thinking that Focus Features will slot Inde Navarrette and her buzzy performance to Supporting Actress and I’m placing her in my quintet all the way in second position.

While Obsession‘s fortunes have risen, I would say Disclosure Day from Steven Spielberg has taken a slight downturn. The sci-fi saga which debuted this weekend in line with financial expectations (though certainly not over them) will have to battle other blockbusters (Project Hail Mary, The Odyssey, Dune: Part Three) over the next several months for awards viability. It could still get in (and so could Emily Blunt in Actress). However, the non-gushing critical response and mixed audience reaction is a potential roadblock.

Trailers can be deceiving when evaluating a picture’s Oscar chances. Yet I have to admit that I found our first look at The Social Reckoning underwhelming and I dropped it from my BP lineup, putting it just on the outside looking in.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. No One Cares (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Obsession (PR: 25) (+15)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (-2)

12. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (E)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (-2)

15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Fatherland (PR: 13) (-3)

17. Behemoth! (PR: 19) (+2)

18. Werwulf (PR: 16) (-2)

19. Jack of Spades (PR: 18) (-1)

20. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 17) (-3)

21. Josephine (PR: 23) (+2)

22. Saturn Return (PR: 24) (+2)

23. Michael (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Being Heumann (PR: 20) (-4)

25. Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Entertainment System is Down

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (E)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (E)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day

Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 2) (E)

3. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)

8. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to Supporting Actress)

Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 13) (+7)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 11) (E)

12. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 12) (E)

13. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 10 (-4)

15. Jordan Firstman, Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Javier Bardem, The Beloved

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead Actress)

3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (E)

11. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Scarlet Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Adele, Cry to Heaven

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (-7)

15. Owen Cooper, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

Antonio Banderas, Tony

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine

2. Digger

3. Fjord

4. No One Cares

5. A Place in Hell

Other Possibilities:

6. Obsession

7. Behemoth!

8. Club Kid

9. Fatherland

10. Jack of Spades

11. Primetime

12. Josephine

13. The Drama

14. Disclosure Day

15. Saturn Return

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball

2. The Odyssey

3. Project Hail Mary

4. All of a Sudden

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilties:

6. The Social Reckoning

7. Dune: Part Three

8. Sense and Sensibility

9. The Invite

10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

11. Prima Facie

12. Being Heumann

13. A Long Winter

14. Tony

15. Minotaur

Oscar Predictions: Gentle Monster

Léa Seydoux was working double duty at the Cannes Film Festival this year with The Unknown (look for that individual post shortly) and the family drama Gentle Monster. The co-production between Austria, France, Germany, and Sweden is the latest feature from Corsage director Marie Kreutzer. Jella Haase, Laurence Rupp, and Catherine Deneuve are among the supporting players.

Both pics for the headlining French actress have the commonality of Seydoux being praised with the film drawing more of a mixed reaction. Rotten Tomatoes is at 59% with the somewhat rare occurrence of Metacritic being higher at 70.

The only feasible awards play is Best Actress. Netflix has reportedly picked up distribution rights. They would need a robust campaign. I would also say Monster needs to pick up steam by playing fall fests and hoping the buzz gets stronger. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Second Act

The Cannes Film Festival is underway and the opening feature is from an auteur named Quentin! Not that one. The Second Act is a French comedy about the first AI directed movie and it’s the latest from filmmaker Quentin Dupieux. Also… don’t get this confused with Second Act, Jennifer Lopez’s rom com from 2018 (because why would that open Cannes??). Léa Seydoux, Vincent Lindon, Louis Garrel, and Raphaël Quenard star.

Clocking in at a mere 82 minutes, initial reactions call this a very meta experience. Reviews themselves are mixed. The Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 60% based on a handful of critics.

I find it highly unlikely that the French will select this as their contender for International Feature Film months down the line. Any awards prospects seem shaky at best. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Beast

Taking its source material from a Henry James novella penned over 120 years ago, Bertrand Bonello’s The Beast is set 20 years in the future (with jumps back to 1910 and 2014). Léa Seydoux (recently seen in Dune: Part Two) and George MacKay headline with Guslagie Malanda and Dasha Nekrasova supporting. The sci-fi romance premiered at the Venice Film Festival last autumn and has made its way stateside after a French start in February.

86% of critics are fresh for what’s described as a tense art movie. Some reviewers are saying it doesn’t completely succeed, but give it points for the try. I don’t expect this to be something that the Academy takes notice of. I wouldn’t be surprised if it develops a cult following from genre enthusiasts. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Dune: Part Two Box Office Prediction

Dune: Part Two looks to storm the box office when it debuts on March 1st with what should easily be the largest debut so far in 2024. Denis Villeneuve returns as director with Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Charlotte Rampling, and Javier Bardem back in action. Newcomers to the franchise include Austin Butler, Florence Pugh, Christopher Walken, Léa Seydoux, and Anya Taylor Joy.

The follow-up to the 2021 original could double its opening. As you may recall, Dune experienced a COVID delay from fall 2020 to fall 2021. The pandemic still limited its potential as it simultaneously premiered on Max. That resulted in a $41 million start which was quite impressive for that period of time. It wrapped up its run at $110 million domestically.

At its low end, Part Two is expected to take in $60 million out of the gate. Reviews for the continuation of Frank Herbert’s source material top part one and it’s currently at 98% on RT with plenty of Oscar nominations expected months down the road. The high end of its range is $80 million or even $90 million.

I am forecasting this could get to the low to mid 80s for the aforementioned double up of its predecessor with a little room to spare.

Dune: Part Two opening weekend prediction: $83.6 million

Oscar Predictions – Dune: Part Two

In 2021, Denis Villeneuve’s vision of Dune generated 10 Oscar nods and six victories. The eagerly awaited Dune: Part Two sweeps into theaters on March 1 (this time with no simultaneous release date on Max). It is expected to outdo its predecessor in terms of box office numbers (my financial estimate is hitting the blog shortly). Part Two may also match or exceed the original’s nomination count.

The review embargo lifted today and the current RT score is a dazzling 97%. That’s up over the 83% that Dune had. Many critics claim it improves upon part one in every way. Villeneuve returns to direct. Among the sprawling cast, we have Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Charlotte Rampling, and Javier Bardem back in the mix. Newcomers to the franchise include Austin Butler, Florence Pugh, Christopher Walken, Léa Seydoux, and Anya Taylor Joy.

At the 94th Academy Awards, Dune‘s took gold in tech races Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Had Part Two not been pushed from 2023 to 2024, it would likely be in serious competition with Oppenheimer and others in those competitions. It would have Visual Effects locked up. Dune ’21 also had nominations for Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Makeup & Hairstyling.

Let’s be clear. Based on the reaction out today, Part Two should vie for inclusion in all those categories… and more. You may recall that Villeneuve was notably snubbed in Director three years back. The Academy might make up for that this time around.

Then there’s the actors and that’s trickier. Ferguson got a little ink as a possibility for Supporting Actress for Dune. For the sequel, expect the same for Chalamet and especially Butler as the villainous Feyd-Rautha. It is also possible the cast will be ignored. For the Lord of the Rings trilogy, only Ian McKellen ever managed a nomination for the initial chapter.

Bottom line: Part Two looks like 2024’s first surefire contender in BP and much more (it is hard to imagine it losing derbies like Cinematography and Visual Effects). The 96th ceremony hasn’t aired yet, but the 97th seems to have truly started with this embargo lapsing. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…