Tag: Mike Leigh

Best Picture 2004: The Expanded Ten

Previously on the blog, I wrote a series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 in recently years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned numerous posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them! Also – I still need to write these posts for 2023 and 2024. They’re coming.**

Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there was a set five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.

This series will project the other five movies that I believe would’ve gotten in. I’ve already covered 2005-08 and you can peruse my posts on them here:

Best Picture 2005: The Expanded Ten
Best Picture 2006: The Expanded Ten
Best Picture 2007: The Expanded Ten
Best Picture 2008: The Expanded Ten

We move to 2004. There’s an obvious five pictures that would’ve made the cut and that’s the group that were nominated. It begins with Clint Eastwood’s Million Dollar Baby. That boxing drama made a late surge 21 years back and took four trophies – Picture, Director, Actress (Hilary Swank), and Supporting Actor and was nominated for three more.

Martin Scorsese’s The Aviator scored a ceremony high 11 nods and won five – Cate Blanchett in Supporting Actress, Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design, and Film Editing. Finding Neverland from Marc Forster landed 7 nominations with a victory in Original Score. Taylor Hackford’s musical biopic Ray made Jamie Foxx a Best Actor victor and won Sound Editing in addition to nods in BP, Director, and two tech races. Alexander Payne’s Sideways was also up for Director, two acting races (though notably not Paul Giamatti in lead actor), and was the recipient of Adapted Screenplay.

That’s the quintet we know. Now we can speculate. And that begins with an unlikely contender in Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11. Moviegoers of a certain younger age may not recall. but the documentarian’s critical look at George W. Bush’s presidency and the Iraq War was a Palme d’Or winner at Cannes, a critical smash, and became the highest grossing documentary of all time in the summer of 2004. However, Moore chose not to submit Fahrenheit for consideration in Documentary Feature where it probably would’ve been a lock to win that prize.

Fahrenheit was, however, eligible for BP. And this is the rare place on the blog where I will speak of politics coming into play. Had President Bush lost reelection in 2004, Fahrenheit might’ve been seen as a contributing factor. And in Hollywood, that might’ve been enough to earn it a spot among the theoretical 10 nominees. That did not happen and I’m therefore not including it among the expanded contenders.

While Fahrenheit is a question mark, there are some features that I feel strongly would have made the longer list. Mike Leigh’s Vera Drake was up for Director, Actress (Imelda Staunton), and Original Screenplay. Michel Gondry’s Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind was the winner in Original Screenplay while Kate Winslet was up in Actress (though Jim Carrey was notably snubbed in Actor). Hotel Rwanda was also nominated in Original Screenplay along with performers Don Cheadle and Sophie Okenedo.

In previous posts covering 2007-2008, Ratatouille and Wall-E made the expanded 10. For 2004, same goes for The Incredibles. The Pixar property was the Animated Feature and Sound Editing honoree and it had nominations in (you guessed it) Original Screenplay and Sound Mixing.

That leaves one spot and there’s lots of contenders. Mel Gibson’s The Passion of the Christ was a box office smash that was up for Original Score, Cinematography, and Makeup. Yet I question whether the Academy would’ve gone for it even with five added possibilities.

Collateral from Michael Mann saw Jamie Foxx as a double nominee in Supporting Actor and a Film Editing nod. Closer had supporting nominations for Clive Owen and Natalie Portman. If it had managed a Screenplay nomination, I might’ve included it. Various tech nominations were bestowed upon Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events, The Phantom of the Opera, Spider-Man 2, and A Very Long Engagement. If this were a do-over list, Azkaban probably would get in considering many believe it’s the best of the franchise. I don’t believe you’d see it at the time. Same goes for the second Spidey adventure.

For the tenth spot (and it’s admittedly a tricky one), I’m settling on The Motorcycle Diaries from Walter Salles. Diaries was subject to controversy at the Oscars in the Best Foreign Language Film (now International Feature Film) competition. The Academy ruled it ineligible in that race because “it didn’t have sufficient elements from any of the countries to qualify” (huh?). It still picked up nods in Adapted Screenplay and won Original Song. With a doubling of nominees, I think voters would’ve found room for it. That’s especially since it should have been a lock in the foreign derby.

This means my expanded ten consists of:

The Aviator

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Finding Neverland

Hotel Rwanda

The Incredibles

Million Dollar Baby

The Motorcycle Diaries

Ray

Sideways

Vera Drake

I’ll have 2003 up next in this series!

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race

My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

Let’s begin with Best Actress as it might be the most tricky of all to figure out (though the supporting competitions are up there too). I believe there are three performers whose nominations you can write down in pen.

For months, I’ve had Mikey Madison (Anora) listed in 1st place for her work in Anora. She’s been nominated everywhere she needs to be – Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, the BAFTA long list. The film is definitely in the top 5 of Best Picture hopefuls. In other words, she’s in.

That said, just yesterday, I slid her from 1st to 2nd in favor of Demi Moore in The Substance. That’s mainly because Moore was victorious over Madison at the Golden Globes in the Actress (Musical or Comedy) category. Furthermore, Hollywood loves a comeback story. That is present with Demi. She managed all the aforementioned precursors that Madison has and there’s a win in her favor. I do believe the Oscar could go to either of them, but this seems reminiscent of Best Actor in 2022. Austin Butler (Elvis) was the young upstart like Madison. Brendan Fraser (The Whale) was the once major movie star in a comeback vehicle that also involved heavy makeup work. Fraser got the gold.

I would put Moore and Madison’s chances of making the final five at 100% or at least 99.9999999%. The third “pen” pick is Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez. She would make history as the Academy’s first trans nominee. Gascón also made the cut at the key precursors and shared a Cannes victory for Best Actress with her costars. Some prognosticators have started wondering whether she’s a guaranteed nominee. While she’s maybe not a total certainty like our previous actresses, I’d say it’s really close. After all, Emilia Pérez might get the most nominations of any picture this time around. I don’t see that occurring without Emilia Pérez being in contention.

And then… it gets complicated. Before we move to the several performers jockeying for two spots, let’s pour one out for these actresses whose campaigns never got off the ground. In some cases, the films underperformed significantly with critics and audiences. In others, their studios didn’t mount an offensive drive for their inclusion. Some examples are Florence Pugh (We Live in Time), Jodie Comer (The Bikeriders), Ryan Destiny (The Fire Inside), Daisy Ridley (Young Woman and the Sea), Regina King (Shirley), Lily-Rose Depp (Nosferatu), and Marisa Abela (Back to Black). Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) and June Squibb (Thelma) received a little more attention. However, they failed to show up in any significant other awards lists.

After that lengthy group, there’s a next level. These are actresses who may have shown up in some precursors or long lists, but aren’t expected to materialize in the Oscar quintet. Their chances aren’t completely out of reach like those in the previous paragraph. Yet it’s close. I would put Julianne Moore’s The Room Next Door costar Tilda Swinton in this class. Same with Zendaya (Challengers) and Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun).

This leaves us with eight performances vying for two spots: Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), and Kate Winslet (Lee). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?

Amy Adams has the narrative of being long overdue for an Oscar. Despite six nominations, she’s yet to hear her name called. On paper, this seemed like a strong possibility but so-so reviews for Nightbitch have not helped. Despite a Globe nod and being in the BAFTA long list, I have her 8th of these 8 possibilities.

I might be more inclined to put Anderson in my five if it weren’t for Demi Moore’s comeback narrative. The Baywatch starlet is getting career best notices for this indie drama even if the film itself is drawing more mixed reactions. Her Globe nomination in Actress (Drama) wasn’t a huge surprise. The SAG nod this week was and it does increase her viability. I have her 5th of these 8 possibilities.

Cynthia Erivo is starring in one of the year’s largest blockbusters with Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, and the BAFTA long list preceding a potential Oscar nod. If she were to win, Erivo would achieve EGOT status as she already has an Emmy, Grammy, and Tony on her resume. The only question mark is whether the amount of performers could squeeze her out. I doubt it. Erivo is ranked 1st of these 8 possibilities.

Marianne Jean-Baptiste is receiving plenty of critics prizes for her role in Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths. Critics Choice and the BAFTA long list are in her corner though she notably missed SAG and the Globes. Leigh has a history of getting his actors nominated. Seeing her in the eventual quintet would not surprise, but she’s 4th of my 8 possibilities at press time.

Angelina Jolie’s inclusion for Pablo Larrain’s Maria seemed assured at one point after the picture premiered in Venice. In hindsight, the troubling signs could have been evident immediately. She did not take Best Actress at that festival. Since then, she’s missed SAG and the BAFTA long list while competing for the Globe and being nominated for Critics Choice. Her most notable blow came at the Globes. She was favored to win Best Actress in a Drama but fell short to Fernanda Torres. I still think she could get in though I have her just on the outside looking in and 3rd of my 8 possibilities.

For her performance in Babygirl, Nicole Kidman did win Best Actress at Venice and Globe and BAFTA long list spots followed. The recent snubs at Critics Choice and SAG are hard to ignore. She’s 6th among these 8 possibilities.

Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here had no major other precursors to her credit besides the Globe. No BAFTA long list. No Critics Choice. And no SAG attention this week. That win at the Globes, though, looms large and it occurred just as Academy voting was underway. That’s why she’s 2nd of these 8 possibilities.

Finally, Kate Winslet as Lee showed up at the Globes and BAFTA long list. Reviews for the project itself aren’t overly impressive. Winslet could get in because, well, she’s Kate Winslet. Nevertheless she’s 7th of these 8 possibilities.

Whew. OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Actress for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a dive into Supporting Actor up next!

    Oscar Predictions: Hard Truths

    Marianne Jean-Baptiste was up for Supporting Actress 28 years ago in Mike Leigh’s Secrets & Lies, which received five total nominations including Best Picture, Director, Actress (Brenda Blethyn) and Original Screenplay. Leigh and Jean-Baptiste have collaborated again for Hard Truths which was unveiled at the Toronto Film Festival before its December 6th stateside bow. Costars include Michele Austin, David Webber, and Tuwaine Barrett. It could certainly put Jean-Baptiste in the mix again and this time for lead Actress.

    The Metacritic score for the drama is 86 while some reviews say it’s not top-tier Leigh. The British filmmaker is a five-time hopeful for Original Screenplay (he’s never won). In addition to his Lies mention, the other nominated screenplays are Topsy-Turvy, Vera Drake, Happy-Go-Lucky, and Another Year. He could still make the Academy’s cut for Truths, but it’s no guarantee given the slightly more mixed reaction.

    Based on buzz alone, Jean-Baptiste would be a slam dunk for Best Actress inclusion. Yet there’s the competition to consider. That includes a growing list that includes Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), and, yes, Amy Adams (Nightbitch). I also question whether distributor Bleecker Street is equipped to run an effective campaign. That said, she is certainly in the top 10 of competitors and likely close to making the quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    Best Picture 2008: The Expanded Ten

    Earlier this summer, I completed a blog series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!

    Beginning today… my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there were always five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.

    This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in beginning in 2008. In fact, it’s because of that year’s biggest grosser not being included that may have prompted the Academy to expand again in the first place. We’ll get there in just a minute.

    We do, of course, know five of the ten and that would be the ones that were nominated. Danny Boyle’s Slumdog Millionaire dominated the ceremony with ten nods and an impressive eight victories in Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song, and Sound Mixing.

    David Fincher’s The Curious Case of Benjamin Button received the most overall mentions with 13 and took home 3 (Art Direction, Makeup, Visual Effects).

    Our other trio of contenders were Ron Howard’s Frost/Nixon (o for 5 in nominations), Gus Van Sant’s Milk (8 nods with Sean Penn winning Actor as well as an Original Screenplay statue), and Stephen Daldry’s The Reader (5 nominations with Kate Winslet taking Actress).

    The 81st Academy Awards were a rare year when the five Picture hopefuls matched the five filmmakers nominated in Best Director. In other words, there are no clues there for additional BP pics for the purposes of this post.

    Yet for the ones that could’ve made the dance in an expanded lineup, we do begin with 2008’s largest moneymaker and that’s Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight. It did manage to score 8 mentions with Heath Ledger winning a posthumous Supporting Actor prize (in addition to Sound Editing gold). The fact that it didn’t break into BP was heavily criticized online and elsewhere. If there had been 10 pics up, that almost certainly wouldn’t have been the case.

    I would say the same for Pixar’s Wall-E. When it went to 10 movies in 2009 and 2010, the studio’s Up and Toy Story 3 were in. The robotic adventure was the victor in Animated Feature and was nominated in five more races in Original Screenplay, Original Score, Original Song, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing. Like Knight, Wall-E is an easy pick.

    For the 8th spot, I’m fairly confident in Doubt. John Patrick Shanley’s drama (based on his Pulitzer Prize winning play) saw four of its actors nominated and was up for Adapted Screenplay. That combo is enough to assume inclusion.

    Then it gets complicated for the 9th and 10th slots and there’s a few possibilities to ponder. Darren Aronofsky’s The Wrestler saw Mickey Rourke and Marisa Tomei up, but a screenplay miss makes me skeptical. Clint Eastwood’s Changeling had three noms (including Angelina Jolie in Actress), but drew mixed reviews. Woody Allen’s Vicky Christina Barcelona, despite taking the Golden Globe in Musical/Comedy, was only nominated for Penelope Cruz’s supporting turn (for which she won). Martin McDonagh’s In Bruges and Mike Leigh’s Happy-Go-Lucky were both up for Original Screenplay and that race alone. There’s usually one or two screenplay nominees that are only up for that category. Iron Man was a gigantic hit which kicked off the MCU. I doubt the Academy would have honored two comic book adaptations. The Duchess won Costume Design and was nominated for its Art Direction. It also was greeted with a mixed critical response.

    All of those titles, to one degree or another, are worthy of consideration for the last two spots. I’m going with an indie selection in Courtney Hunt’s Frozen River which was nominated for Actress (Melissa Leo) and Original Screenplay. Let’s call it 2008’s Winter’s Bone (which would make the 2010 BP ten).

    Lastly, I’m naming Revolutionary Road from Sam Mendes. Despite it missing noms for stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet, it received a Golden Globe nod in Drama and three Academy mentions for Supporting Actor (Michael Shannon), Art Direction, and Costume Design. That might have been just enough for #10.

    So there you have it! That means my 2008 Best Picture expanded to ten is:

    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

    The Dark Knight

    Doubt

    Frost/Nixon

    Frozen River

    Milk

    The Reader

    Revolutionary Road

    Slumdog Millionaire

    Wall-E

    I’ll have 2007 up for your reading pleasure soon!

    2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 13th Edition

    My weekly Oscar predictions in the major categories, as expected, has seen some significant shifting. This is mostly due to the Toronto Film Festival and the screenings of several major contenders.

    Here are some quick notes on the movement that’s taken place in the past seven days:

    • The addiction drama Beautiful Boy has taken a hit in the standings, due to a mixed Toronto reaction. It falls from #5 all the way to #21 in the Best Picture derby. Additionally, I have taken it out the 5 predicted nominees in Best Actor (Steve Carell) and Adapted Screenplay. However, Timothee Chalamet is still looking good for Supporting Actor.
    • If Beale Street Could Talk had its much awaited debut up north. I basically had it as a place holder pick at #1 in both Picture and Director, but it’s fallen in both races to #5 and #4, respectively. This vaults A Star Is Born to the #1 slot in BP with Alfonso Cuaron’s direction of Roma currently topping Best Director.
    • The elimination of the Best Popular Film category could be a good thing for Black Panther. For the first time, I have it included in my nine predicted BP nominees.
    • Peter Farrelly’s Green Book seemed to be a crowd favorite in Toronto. While I have it just outside my BP rankings, it’s now included in Best Original Screenplay and Mahershala Ali is predicted for Supporting Actor. It’s not entirely certain yet whether he will be placed in that category or go co-lead with Viggo Mortensen.
    • Speaking of category placement, we’re still not sure where Olivia Colman, Emma Stone, and Rachel Weisz will end up for The Favourite. Right now, I’m assuming Colman in Actress and both Stone and Weisz for Supporting Actress. I’ve now got Stone getting a nod for the first time.
    • The Dick Cheney biopic starring Christian Bale has apparently switched its working title name Backseat to Vice.
    • My current Best Actor predictions now include Ryan Gosling (First Man) and Robert Redford (The Old Man & The Gun) with the aforementioned Carell and Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner) out.
    • In Best Actress, solid Toronto chatter for the work of Viola Davis (Widows) puts her in the mix with Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) taken out.
    • Widows also shined a light on Daniel Kaluuya as he’s said to have a terrific part in it. He is now included in Supporting Actor along with Green Book‘s Ali. Sam Rockwell (Vice) and Russell Crowe (Boy Erased) have been moved out of the predicted nominees.
    • In Supporting Actress, Emma Stone has replaced Vera Farmiga (The Front Runner).
    • Yorgos Lanthimos has been included in my 5 director nominees and that means Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) is on the outside looking in currently.

    Here’s the whole breakdown for this week!

    Best Picture

    1. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

    2. Roma (PR: 3)

    3. First Man (PR: 4)

    4. The Favourite (PR: 6)

    5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR 1)

    6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)

    7. Boy Erased (PR: 8)

    8. Vice (PR: 9 – previously known as Backseat)

    9. Black Panther (PR: 11)

    Other Possibilities:

    10. Green Book (PR: 18)

    11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 15)

    12. Widows (PR: 14)

    13. The Front Runner (PR: 10)

    14. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 25)

    15. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 24)

    16. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 13)

    17. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 21)

    18. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 17)

    19. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 16)

    20. Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)

    21. Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)

    22. Cold War (PR: 20)

    23. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 23)

    24. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 19)

    25. Peterloo (PR: 12)

    Dropped Out:

    July 22

    Best Director

    1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 2)

    2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

    3. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 4)

    4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

    5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 6)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

    7. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)

    8. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 9)

    9. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 12)

    10. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 13)

    11. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 15)

    12. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Jacques Audiard, The Sisters Brothers (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Jason Reitman, The Front Runner (PR: 10)

    Dropped Out:

    Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy

    Mike Leigh, Peterloo

    Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots

    Best Actor

    1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

    2. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 2)

    3. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)

    4. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 4)

    5. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 8)

    7. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)

    8. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 10)

    9. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 5)

    10. John C. Reilly, The Sisters Brothers (PR: 14)

    11. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)

    12. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 12)

    13. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 15)

    14. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (PR: 13)

    15. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 11)

    Best Actress

    1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

    2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)

    3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 4)

    4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 5)

    5. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 8)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 12)

    7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)

    8. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 9)

    9. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 3)

    10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)

    11. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

    12. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)

    13. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 11)

    14. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 13)

    15. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: 14)

    Dropped Out:

    Joanna Kulig, Cold War

    Best Supporting Actor

    1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 1)

    2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 4)

    3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)

    4. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: Not Ranked)

    5. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 9)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 3)

    7. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 5)

    8. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)

    9. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)

    10. Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 6)

    11. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)

    12. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Jason Clarke, First Man (PR: 12)

    15. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 11)

    Dropped Out:

    Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick

    J.K. Simmons, The Front Runner

    Best Supporting Actress

    1. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 1)

    2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

    3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 7)

    4. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 3)

    5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 14)

    7. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 11)

    8. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Maura Tierney, Beautiful Boy (PR: 6)

    10. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)

    11. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner (PR: 4)

    13. Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 8)

    15. Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 12)

    Dropped Out:

    Amy Ryan, Beautiful Boy

    Blythe Danner, What They Had

    Rachel McAdams, Disobedience 

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    1. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

    2. First Man (PR: 5)

    3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

    4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

    5. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 8)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Boy Erased (PR: 4)

    7. Widows (PR: 13)

    8. Black Panther (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. The Front Runner (PR: 7)

    10. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 10)

    11. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 12)

    12. Beautiful Boy (PR: 2)

    13. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 9)

    14. Disobedience (PR: 11)

    15. Wildlife (PR: 14)

    Dropped Out:

    The Miseducation of Cameron Post

    Best Original Screenplay

    1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

    2. Roma (PR: 2)

    3. Vice (PR: 3)

    4. Green Book (PR: 6)

    5. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 13)

    7. Ben Is Back (PR: 9)

    8. A Quiet Place (PR: 10)

    9. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 5)

    10. Vox Lux (PR: 8)

    11. First Reformed (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 12)

    13. Mid90s (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Hereditary (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Sorry to Bother You (PR: 15)

    Dropped Out:

    Peterloo

    Isle of Dogs

    Bohemian Rhapsody

    2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 6th Edition

    What a difference a week makes! Last Thursday, I gave you my first initial predictions in the major categories for the Oscars. Since then – we’ve seen a slew of pictures screened at the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals.

    Films like A Star Is Born, Roma, First Man, and The Favourite solidified their status as contenders. Others like Boy Erased and The Front Runner availed themselves as possibilities, but not slam dunks. Others like Destroyer and The Old Man & The Gun likely took themselves out of the running in Best Picture, but shined a light on their actors that could receive nods.

    And here’s the thing… by the time I do my third round of predictions next Thursday, we will have lots more pictures screened at the Toronto Film Festival, which begins today. That includes such high-profile titles as If Beale Street Could Talk, Beautiful Boy, Widows, and more.

    Here’s how I have the key races ranked by possibility of nomination at this point in time!

    Best Picture

    1. If Beale Street Could Talk (Previous Ranking: 1)

    2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

    3. Roma (PR: 4)

    4. First Man (PR: 5)

    5. Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)

    6. The Favourite (PR: 13)

    7. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

    8. Boy Erased (PR: 7)

    9. Backseat (PR: 8)

    Other Possibilities:

    10. The Front Runner (PR: 14)

    11. Black Panther (PR: 12)

    12. Peterloo (PR: 9)

    13. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)

    14. Widows (PR: 11)

    15. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 16)

    16. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 17)

    17. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 22)

    18. Green Book (PR: 21)

    19. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 24)

    20. Cold War (PR: Not Ranked)

    21. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 23)

    22. July 22 (PR: Not Ranked)

    23. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 19)

    24. The Sisters Brothers (PR: Not Ranked)

    25. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 15)

    Dropped Out:

    The Old Man & The Gun

    Destroyer

    Ben Is Back

    Best Director

    1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

    2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 2)

    3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

    4. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 4)

    5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 11)

    7. Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy (PR: 6)

    8. Adam McKay, Backseat (PR: 7)

    9. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 8)

    10. Jason Reitman, The Front Runner (PR: 14)

    11. Mike Leigh, Peterloo (PR: 9)

    12. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 13)

    14. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)

    15. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 12)

    Dropped Out:

    Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fp_i7cnOgbQ&t=1s

    Best Actor

    1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

    2. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 3)

    3. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 2)

    4. Christian Bale, Backseat (PR: 6)

    5. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 4)

    7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 5)

    8. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 7)

    9. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)

    10. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 13)

    11. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 10)

    12. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 12)

    13. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (PR: 14)

    14. John C. Reilly, The Sisters Brothers (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 15)

    Dropped Out:

    Rory Kinnear, Peterloo

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICDSkdzgiD0

    Best Actress

    1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

    2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)

    3. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 6)

    4. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 9)

    5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)

    7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)

    8. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 3)

    9. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

    11. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)

    12. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 15)

    13. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)

    14. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: 13)

    15. Joanna Kulig, Cold War

    Dropped Out:

    Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back

    Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place

    Best Supporting Actor

    1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 1)

    2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

    3. Sam Rockwell, Backseat (PR: 3)

    4. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

    5. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)

    7. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

    8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)

    9. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 9)

    10. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 13)

    11. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 5)

    12. Jason Clarke, First Man (PR: 11)

    13. David Tennant, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)

    14. Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. J.K. Simmons, The Front Runner (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Sebastian Stan, Destroyer

    Topher Grace, BlacKkKlansman

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zqom4jCui8

    Best Supporting Actress

    1. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 3)

    2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

    3. Amy Adams, Backseat (PR: 5)

    4. Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner (PR: 10)

    5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Maura Tierney, Beautiful Boy (PR: 6)

    7. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

    9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 12)

    10. Amy Ryan, Beautiful Boy (PR: 7)

    11. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 11)

    12. Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

    13. Blythe Danner, What They Had (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)

    15. Rachel McAdams, Disobedience (PR: 14)

    Dropped Out:

    Tatiana Maslany, Destroyer

    Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

    2. Beautiful Boy (PR: 2)

    3. A Star Is Born (PR: 4)

    4. Boy Erased (PR: 3)

    5. First Man (PR: 6)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

    7. The Front Runner (PR: 8)

    8. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

    9. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)

    10. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)

    11. Disobedience (PR: 13)

    12. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 15)

    13. Widows (PR: 12)

    14. Wildlife (PR: 14)

    15. The Miseducation of Cameron Post (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Old Man & The Gun

    Best Original Screenplay

    1. The Favourite (PR: 5)

    2. Roma (PR: 1)

    3. Backseat (PR: 3)

    4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)

    5. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 10)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Green Book (PR: 11)

    7. Peterloo (PR: 2)

    8. Vox Lux (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Ben is Back (PR: 8)

    10. A Quiet Place (PR: 13)

    11. Isle of Dogs (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 9)

    13. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 6)

    14. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 14)

    15. Sorry to Bother You (PR: 15)

    Dropped Out:

    Destroyer

    Colette

    Check back next Thursday for updated predictions!

    Oscar Watch: Peterloo

    Arriving nearly 200 years after the English massacre it focuses on, Mike Leigh’s Peterloo has premiered at the Venice Film Festival this weekend. Some of the early reviews are quite strong while others are a bit more mixed. Amazon Studios may have to put in a heavy push for it to get recognized in Best Picture or Director, but it’s certainly possible.

    Another scenario, as I see it, is for Peterloo to follow a similar path as Leigh’s previous work. That would be 2014’s Mr. Turner, which picked up nominations for Best Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, and Score. Adding in Makeup and Hairstyling, Peterloo has a legitimate shot at all those down the line categories.

    Depending on the strength of competition, Leigh could also find himself recognized in Original Screenplay. If so, it would mark his sixth time at a nod in that race. If he nabs a directing nod, it would be his third after Secrets & Lies and Vera Drake.

    Bottom line: it’s uncertain, but Peterloo stands a decent shot at multiple nominations.

    The film opens stateside on November 9. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

    2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: August 30th Edition

    My weekly ranked Oscar predictions kick off today as the Venice Film Festival is in full swing with Toronto and Telluride on deck!

    Each Thursday, I will be bringing you my top 25 possibilities for Best Picture, along with 15 for Best Director, the four acting races, and the screenplay categories.

    In November, the rankings will constrict to 15 possibilities for Best Picture and ten for every other race covering feature films (this is when all the tech categories, animated feature, foreign film, documentary will enter the mix).

    Before I get to the rankings, some warnings: these will change dramatically as time rolls along. Some features could be pushed back to 2019. Some of them will instantly become non-factors due to poor critical reaction. Others will vault higher.

    In the acting races, there is always uncertainty at this juncture about placement in which category. Here’s a few 2018 examples: right now I have Steve Carell listed in lead actor for Beautiful Boy with Timothee Chalamet in supporting. That could switch or both could be campaigned for in lead. Time will tell. Same goes for Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali in Green Book. Right now, I have Tim Blake Nelson in The Ballad of Buster Scruggs for lead, but it could easily be supporting. And it’s uncertain where the women (Olivia Colman, Rachel Weisz, Emma Stone) of The Favourite will land.

    All of this will be sorted out in the coming weeks and months and I’ll be here every Thursday to share with you where I have each category at this snapshot in time.

    You can expect a whole bunch of Oscar Watch posts coming your way directly focused on individual films screenings at festivals over the coming days.

    Let’s get to it, shall we?

    Best Picture

    1. If Beale Street Could Talk

    2. A Star Is Born

    3. Beautiful Boy

    4. Roma

    5. First Man

    6. BlacKkKlansman

    7. Boy Erased

    8. Backseat

    9. Peterloo

    Other Possibilities:

    10. Mary Queen of Scots

    11. Widows

    12. Black Panther

    13. The Favourite

    14. The Front Runner

    15. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

    16. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

    17. Crazy Rich Asians

    18. Old Man & The Gun

    19. Bohemian Rhapsody

    20. Destroyer

    21. Green Book

    22. Mary Poppins Returns

    23. At Eternity’s Gate

    24. On the Basis of Sex

    25. Ben Is Back

    Best Director

    1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

    2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

    3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

    4. Damien Chazelle, First Man

    5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy

    7. Adam McKay, Backseat

    8. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased

    9. Mike Leigh, Peterloo

    10. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots

    11. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

    12. Steve McQueen, Widows

    13. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

    14. Jason Reitman, The Front Runner

    15. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

    Best Actor

    1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

    2. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy

    3. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

    4. Ryan Gosling, First Man

    5. Robert Redford, Old Man & The Gun

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Christian Bale, Backseat

    7. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

    8. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

    9. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner

    10. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk

    11. Rory Kinnear, Peterloo

    12. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

    13. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

    14. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here

    15. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

    Best Actress

    1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

    2. Glenn Close, The Wife

    3. Viola Davis, Widows

    4. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots

    5. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer

    7. Toni Collette, Hereditary

    8. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

    9. Olivia Colman, The Favourite

    10. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex

    11. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

    12. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back

    13. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

    14. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place

    15. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

    Best Supporting Actor

    1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

    2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born

    3. Sam Rockwell, Backseat

    4. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased

    5. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

    7. Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate

    8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

    9.. Mahershala Ali, Green Book

    10. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

    11. Jason Clarke, First Man

    12. Sebastian Stan, Destroyer

    13. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex

    14. David Tennant, Mary Queen of Scots

    15. Topher Grace, BlacKkKlansman

    Best Supporting Actress

    1. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

    2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

    3. Claire Foy, First Man

    4. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots

    5. Amy Adams, Backseat

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Maura Tierney, Beautiful Boy

    7. Amy Ryan, Beautiful Boy

    8. Sissy Spacek, Old Man & The Gun

    9. Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns

    10. Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner

    11. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

    12. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians

    13. Tatiana Maslany, Destroyer

    14. Rachel McAdams, Disobedience

    15. Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    1. If Beale Street Could Talk

    2. Beautiful Boy

    3. Boy Erased

    4. A Star Is Born

    5. BlacKkKlansman

    Other Possibilities:

    6. First Man

    7. Mary Queen of Scots

    8. The Front Runner

    9. Crazy Rich Asians

    10. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

    11. Old Man & The Gun

    12. Widows

    13. Disobedience

    14. Wildlife

    15. The Sisters Brothers

    Best Original Screenplay

    1. Roma

    2. Peterloo

    3. Backseat

    4. Eighth Grade

    5. The Favourite

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

    7. Destroyer

    8. Ben Is Back

    9. On the Basis of Sex

    10. At Eternity’s Gate

    11. Green Book

    12. Colette

    13. A Quiet Place

    14. Bohemian Rhapsody

    15. Sorry to Bother You

    Todd’s Early 2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Director

    We’ve arrived at Best Director in my early bird predictions for the 2018 Oscars! In the last couple of days, I’ve also posted my take on the four acting categories and the new race that everyone has an opinion on – Best Popular Film. If you missed those, you can find them right here:

    https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/24/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-popular-film/

    https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/24/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-actor/

    https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/24/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-actress/

    https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/23/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

    https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/23/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

    As mentioned previously, these categories will all come into much sharper focus this coming week when Venice kicks off Film Festival season with Toronto to quickly follow.

    Let’s get to it with Director and Best Picture will follow later today.

    Todd’s Early Oscar Predictions: Best Director

    Damien Chazelle, First Man

    Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

    Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

    Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

    Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

    Other Possibilities:

    Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 

    Joel Edgerton, Boy, Erased

    Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

    Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

    Mike Leigh, Peterloo

    David Lowry, Old Man & The Gun

    Adam McKay, Backseat

    Steve McQueen, Widows

    Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots

    Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy

    Film Festival Season Approaches: The 2018 Hopefuls

    We may be smack dab in the middle of the summer movie season, but Oscar season will be taking shape before we know it. This week, the organizers of the Toronto and Venice Film Festivals have unveiled lineups for the pictures that will be premiering at their events in a few weeks. Many of them are awards hopefuls.

    To give you an idea of the importance of festivals when it comes to Oscar nominees, six of last year’s nine nominees premiered at some combination of Toronto, Venice, Telluride, New York, Sundance, or Cannes. Every Best Picture winner from this decade and beyond played at one of them. The last one that didn’t was The Departed back in 2006.

    The months of September-December are the fertile ground for most nominated features. Last year, seven of the nine Picture nominees came out in that time frame. In 2016 – it was 8 out of 9.

    Beginning in late August/early September, I will begin my weekly Oscar prediction columns. It works like this:

    Late August/Early September – first posting of predictions in the categories of Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress

    Months of September and October – weekly Oscar predictions column post covering those 6 categories, as well as Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay. For Best Picture, I will be ranking possibilities numbered 1-25. For other categories, it will be numbered 1-15.

    Months of November through announcement of nominations – weekly Oscar predictions column covering every category involving feature films. For Best Picture, I will be ranking possibilities numbered 1-15. For other categories, it will be numbered 1-10.

    While these posts are a month away, today I bring you 25 fall awards hopefuls that I suspect I’ll be mentioning frequently. Most of these are premiering at the high-profile quartet of upcoming fests (Venice, Toronto, New York, Telluride). Some aren’t, but could certainly be added to Telluride or New York especially (as they’re more known for surprise screenings).

    Let’s get to it!

    A Star is Born

    The third remake of the musical drama marks the directorial debut of Bradley Cooper and features a potential showcase role for his costar Lady Gaga. Early word of mouth is already strong.

    At Eternity’s Gate

    He received a nomination for his supporting work last year for The Florida Project and Willem Dafoe plays Vincent Van Gogh in what could be another awards bait role.

    **NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME

    Backseat

    Expect Adam McKay’s follow-up to The Big Short to receive plenty of attention. Christian Bale is Cheney with Amy Adams as wife Lynne and last year’s Supporting Actor winner Sam Rockwell as George W. Bush.

    **NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME

    Beautiful Boy

    Steve Carell plays the father of a meth addict played by Timothee Chalamet, who was nominated last year for Call Me by Your Name.

    Ben is Back

    Lucas Hedges and Julia Roberts headline this family drama that premieres at Toronto.

    **NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME

    Bohemian Rhapsody

    Despite some behind the scenes drama in its filming, all eyes will be on Rami Malek’s work as Queen front man Freddie Mercury.

    Boy Erased

    Perhaps an even larger showcase role for Lucas Hedges is this drama where he plays a homosexual sent to conversion camp. Joel Edgerton directs and costars along with Nicole Kidman and Russell Crowe.

    Can You Ever Forgive Me?

    Melissa McCarthy received an Academy Award nomination with her breakthrough role in Bridesmaids. This drama about writer Lee Israel could muster attention for her yet again.

    First Man

    Director Damien Chazelle has seen both of his efforts (Whiplash, La La Land) nominated for Best Picture and he’s the youngest filmmaker to ever win Best Director. His third pic is a Neil Armstrong biopic starring Ryan Gosling. It opens the Venice Film Festival.

    If Beale Street Could Talk

    The follow-up to his Oscar winning Moonlight, Barry Jenkins directs this drama set in 1970s Harlem.

    July 22

    United 93 and Captain Phillips director Paul Greengrass brings his latest to Netflix and it focuses on the 2011 terrorist attacks in Norway.

    **NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME

    Life Itself

    Premiering at Toronto, this ensemble drama includes Oscar Isaac, Olivia Munn, Annette Bening, and Antonio Banderas.

    Mary Poppins Returns

    She’s already a contender for A Quiet Place and Emily Blunt could face competition from herself with Disney’s expected monster hit.

    Mary Queen of Scots

    They were both nominated for Best Actress last year and now Saoirse Ronan and Margot Robbie star in this historical drama about the title character and Queen Elizabeth I.

    Old Man & The Gun

    David Lowery directs Robert Redford in the true life tale of a prison escape artist. Sissy Spacek and Casey Affleck costar.

    On the Basis of Sex

    The documentary RBG could get noticed by the Documentary branch, as could this biopic which casts Felicity Jones as Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

    Peterloo

    Acclaimed British director Mike Leigh returns with this historical 19th century drama.

    Roma

    This Mexican family drama is Alfonso Cuaron’s first directorial effort since his acclaimed Gravity.

    Suspiria

    Call Me by Your Name maker Luca Guadagnino shifts gears for this remake of the 1970s horror classic. Don’t be surprised if this receives attention in some technical categories.

    The Favourite

    The Lobster director Yorgos Lanthimos is behind this historical drama featuring Olivia Colman, Emma Stone, and Rachel Weisz.

    The Front Runner

    Jason Reitman directs this biopic of failed Presidential candidate Gary Hart with Hugh Jackman cast in the role.

    **NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME

    The Sisters Brothers

    John C. Reilly, Joaquin Phoenix, and Jake Gyllenhaal are among the cast in this Western from acclaimed French director Jacques Audiard.

    Welcome to Marwen

    Steve Carell stars in this unique looking drama from Forrest Gump maker Robert Zemeckis.

    Widows

    It’s been five years between projects for Oscar winning 12 Years a Slave director Steve McQueen. This heist thriller stars recent winner Viola Davis.

    And there’s your very early preview of some titles to keep an eye on over the coming months. Those Oscar posts will start rolling out weekly in about a month! Stay tuned…