The Brink of War Box Office Prediction

Angel Studios hopes to attract an older crowd with The Brink of War on August 14th. Recounting the Reykjavik Summit of 1986, the political drama casts Jeff Daniels as Ronald Reagan with Jared Harris portraying Mikhail Gorbachev. Michael Russell Gunn makes his directorial debut with the supporting cast including J.K. Simmons as Secretary of State George Schultz and Hope Davis as Nancy Reagan. **Fun fact: this is Davis’s second portrayal of a First Lady as she inhabited Hillary Clinton in 2010’s HBO pic The Special Relationship.

War‘s recounting of a major event in the tenure of America’s 40th President is unlikely to approach Angel’s summer flick about the formative days of the 1st POTUS. Young Washington premiered to nearly $20 million with a shrewd Fourth of July holiday release. This might be lucky to take in a quarter of those debut earnings.

The Brink of War opening weekend prediction: $4.5 million

For my The End of Oak Street prediction, click here

The End of Oak Street Box Office Prediction

For my PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie prediction, click here:

PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie Box Office Prediction

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The third entrant in Best Actor is Ethan Hawke as songwriter Lorenz Hart in Richard Linklater’s musical dramedy Blue Moon. If you missed my posts covering Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio, they can be accessed here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another

Previous Acting Nominations:

2001 – Supporting Actor (Training Day) – lost to Jim Broadbent for Iris; 2014 – Supporting Actor (Boyhood) – lost to J.K. Simmons for Whiplash

The Case for Ethan Hawke:

He has garnered some career best notices and made the cut at significant precursors like the Globes, Critics Choice, SAG Actor, and BAFTA. For a career lasting over three decades, Hawke been on a roll lately mixing indies with horror and TV work. Voters may wish to give him his due, especially after being snubbed a few years back for First Reformed and nabbing two other Oscar nods for his Before Sunset and Before Midnight screenplays.

The Case Against Ethan Hawke:

A signature precursor victory has yet to materialize. Chalamet’s performance in Marty Supreme has swept the season thus far. Moon is the sole pic represented in Best Actor that doesn’t come from a Best Picture nominee.

The Verdict:

An upset win is unlikely to occur unless Hawke manages a SAG or BAFTA trophy. Barring that, Chalamet remains the sturdy frontrunner.

My Case Of posts will continue with the third contestant in Supporting Actress and that’s Amy Madigan in Weapons…

The Accountant 2 Box Office Prediction

Ben Affleck hopes to generate big box office numbers with The Accountant 2 on April 25th. Arriving eight and a half years after its predecessor, Gavin O’Connor returns to direct the action thriller with Jon Bernthal, Cynthia Addai-Robinson, Daniella Pineda, and J.K. Simmons in support.

First screened at South by Southwest last month, the sequel is drawing more complimentary reactions than the 2016 original. The Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic ratings are 85% and 61 respectively compared to part 1’s 53% and 51.

Even with so-so reviews, The Accountant exceeded expectations with a $24 million opening and $86 million eventual domestic take. With several years to play on the basic cable circuit, anticipation for the sequel could mean a higher debut. However, there’s lots of competition so I’m projecting this post similar results.

The Accountant 2 opening weekend prediction: $24.3 million

For my Until Dawn prediction, click here:

Until Dawn Box Office Prediction

For my Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith re-release prediction, click here:

Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith Re-Release Box Office Prediction

Oscars: The Case of Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our third entry in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Edward Norton in James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown. If you missed my posts covering Yura Borisov (Anora) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), they’re linked at the bottom.

Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:

Best Supporting Actor (1996, Primal Fear) – lost to Cuba Gooding Jr. (Jerry Maguire)

Best Actor (1998, American History X) – lost to Roberto Benigni (Life is Beautiful)

Best Supporting Actor (2014, Birdman) – lost to J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

The Case for Edward Norton:

As folk singer Pete Seeger, Norton returns to the Oscar lineup a decade after his third nomination. For his fourth try, he achieved a quartet of noms in key precursors the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. He’s 0 for 3 thus far and Academy voters might feel he’s overdue for the statue.

The Cast Against Edward Norton:

Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) has swept so far with only SAG left. Timothée Chalamet might have a better shot if Unknown manages an acting victory.

The Verdict:

Unless he is a surprise SAG victor this Sunday, Supporting Actor seems to be going Culkin’s way. After March 2nd, the Norton count should be 0 for 4.

My Case Of posts will continue our next hopeful in Director and that’s Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez…

Oscars: The Case of Yura Borisov in Anora

Oscars: The Case of Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

Red One Box Office Prediction

The pricey Yuletide action comedy Red One touches down in theaters November 15th and hoping to slay the box office with a large family audience. Jake Kasdan, maker of Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and sequel The Next Level, reunites with that franchise lead Dwayne Johnson as well as Chris Evans. Costars include Lucy Liu, J.K. Simmons, Kiernan Shipka, Bonnie Hunt, Kristofer Hivju, and Nick Kroll.

With a reported $250 million price tag, the Santa Claus kidnapping caper is counting on a significant presence with parents and kiddos. The review embargo, likely not by accident, lifted Tuesday night as America was tuned into the Presidential election results. Word-of-mouth isn’t great with 33% on Rotten Tomatoes and 37 on Metacritic.

That could damper the buzz and keep it on the lower end of its anticipated $20-$45 million range. There is a considerable lack of competition (at least until Wicked and Gladiator II open the following weekend) and that could help. Yet I suspect mid to high 20s is where this begins.

Red One opening weekend prediction: $27.6 million

Oscar Predictions: Red One

Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans headline the Christmas action comedy Red One which slides into multiplexes November 15th. Jake Kasdan (who’s made the last two Jumanji pics with Johnson) directs with a supporting cast including Lucy Liu, J.K. Simmons (as a kidnapped Santa Claus), Kiernan Shipka, Bonnie Hunt, Kristofer Hivju, and Nick Kroll.

Budgeted at a reported whopping $250 million, Amazon MGM hopes family audiences will turn out in droves. Early signs are that it might not be the massive hit they’re hoping for and reviews aren’t assisting. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 35% with Metacritic at 37. The only Academy play would be Visual Effects and some of the reviews are criticizing the CG. Don’t expect this holiday concoction to be present at awards season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Juror #2

Juror #2 reunites Nicholas Hoult and Toni Collette 20 years plus after the acclaimed About a Boy and it marks Clint Eastwood’s latest project at age 94. For reasons still unclear, it premieres Friday in approximately 50 theaters after debuting at AFI Fest. The legal thriller costars J.K. Simmons, Chris Messina, Zoey Deutch, Gabriel Basso, and Kiefer Sutherland.

The extremely limited release for Juror isn’t due to poor reviews. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 92% with Metacritic at a 75. If Warner Bros had chosen to put some marketing muscle behind this, it might’ve been a midsize hit.

While Eastwood has helmed two BP winners in Unforgiven and Million Dollar Baby and had other nominees with Letters from Iwo Jima and American Sniper, this courtroom tale just doesn’t seem to be a WB priority. The verdict is that awards voters will likely ignore it as well. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Saturday Night Box Office Prediction

Arriving in wide release exactly 49 years to the day from the event it showcases, Saturday Night expands nationwide on October 11th. From Jason Reitman, the dramedy recounts the 90 minutes leading up to the premiere of Saturday Night Live. Gabriel LaBelle stars as Lorne Michaels with a large supporting cast including Rachel Sennott, Cory Michael Smith (getting a lot of solid buzz as Chevy Chase), Ella Hunt, Dylan O’Brien, Emily Fairn, Matt Wood, Lamorne Morris, Kim Matula, Finn Wolfhard, Nicholas Braun (pulling double duty as Andy Kaufman and Jim Henson), Cooper Hoffman, Willem Dafoe, Matthew Rhys, J.K. Simmons, and Jon Batiste (who also provides the score).

The behind the scenes showbiz tale first premiered at Telluride to mostly favorable reaction. The RT score is 80% with 63 on Metacritic. This could contend for one of the ten slots in Best Picture at the Academy Awards, but it’s not a slam dunk nominee.

Opening just as SNL kicks off its 50th season certainly helps exposure. It debuted in five venues on September 27th in New York and L.A. to a robust $53k per screen average (second best this year after Kinds of Kindness). Saturday Night expands slightly on October 4th before the 2000 screen rollout on the 49th anniversary.

This was rightly anticipated to start out well on the coasts. I’m unconvinced general audiences will make this a sizable hit even with the (not exactly loud) awards chatter and decades long familiarity with the source material. I’m not sure this gets to $10 million and I’m putting it under.

Saturday Night opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million

For my Terrifier 3 prediction, click here:

Terrifier 3 Box Office Prediction

For my My Hero Academia: You’re Next prediction, click here:

My Hero Academia: You’re Next Box Office Prediction

For my Piece by Piece prediction, click here:

Piece by Piece Box Office Prediction

For my The Apprentice prediction, click here:

The Apprentice Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Saturday Night

Jason Reitman had a one-two punch of consecutive Best Picture nominees with Juno and Up in the Air in 2007 and 2009. Some follow-ups generated solid reviews (Young Adult, Tully) while others (Labor Day, The Front Runner) drew more mixed reactions. None have received significant awards buzz in the past decade and a half. Will that change with Saturday Night?

The Sony Pictures dramedy is slated for release on October 11th which is the 49th anniversary of the iconic sketch show it celebrates. This recounts the chaotic moments leading up to the premiere of Saturday Night Live. Gabriel LaBelle (who essentially played young Steven Spielberg in 2022’s The Fabelmans) is 30-year-old Lorne Michaels. The extensive supporting cast (some playing 1975 legends with others as future legends) includes Cooper Hoffman, Rachel Sennott, Cory Michael Smith, Ella Hunt, Dylan O’Brien, Emily Fairn, Matt Wood, Lamorne Morris, Kim Matula, Finn Wolfhard, Nicholas Braun (as Andy Kaufman and Jim Henson), Andrew Barth Feldman, Willem Dafoe, Matthew Rhys, J.K. Simmons, and Jon Batiste.

Having just played Telluride and hitting Toronto shortly, early word-of-mouth is primarily on the fresh side. There are some high profile reviews of the thumbs down variety. I would say Saturday Night stands a shot at a Best Picture nomination, but it is a coin flip at the moment as we await how competitors pan out. Down ballot categories like Costume Design and (especially) Film Editing could occur especially if it sneaks into BP.

As for the cast, LaBelle is getting quality ink. Yet some of the strongest notices are going to Sennott as writer Rosie Schuster and Smith as Chevy Chase. I’m skeptical any of the performers break into their respective categories though the SAG Awards could certainly nominate the cast in their Ensemble race. Speaking of other shows, the Golden Globes could put it up for Musical/Comedy assuming Sony campaigns for it there and LaBelle could make the Actor (Musical/Comedy) quintet.

At the Academy Awards, there is almost always a picture or two that is up solely for its screenplay. This is a distinct possibility with Saturday Night and its original screenplay from Reitman and Gil Kenan. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

New York Circles Tár

The New York Film Critics Circle have made their selections for the year’s best and that kicks off a flurry of regional awards coming our way in the days and weeks ahead. This particular critics group (as is the case with most) isn’t much of a barometer on who and what will win. It is, however, a decent glimpse of who and what could contend.

Todd Field’s Tár and Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin each earned two honors. The former was named Best Film with Cate Blanchett taking the Actress award. Eight of the last 10 NYFCC victors in Film went on to receive a BP Oscar nomination. Yet none of those movies won the big prize from the Academy. The last one that did was 2011’s The Artist. And that make sense here. Tár appears highly likely to make the BP cut though it isn’t much of a threat to take the gold. Five of the past 10 Actress recipients were nominated with only one winner. Who was that winner? Cate Blanchett for 2013’s Blue Jasmine. She could certainly do so again. This won’t be the only critics branch to name her.

Colin Farrell was Best Actor for Banshees and After Yang. Like Actress, half of the previous ten New York honorees made the Oscar quintet with two winners – Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) and Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea). Farrell appears to be locked in a tight three-way race with Brendan Fraser (The Whale) and Austin Butler (Elvis). Every precursor like this helps a little. Banshees also won Best Screenplay. That’s another Academy three-way battle in Original Screenplay with Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Fabelmans.

The supporting fields are a bit more predictive as far as Academy matches. Eight of 10 Supporting Actor NYFCC takers were at the Oscars. That includes four winners in Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club), J.K. Simmons (Whiplash), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies), and Mahershala Ali (Moonlight). We could see another match with Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Expect to hear his name a lot.

Supporting Actress, on the contrary, was more of a surprise. Keke Palmer’s work in Nope topped all rivals in a wide open field that’s hard to peg for Oscar prognosticating. 7 of 10 winners here made the big dance including the victorious Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), and Laura Dern (Marriage Story). I’ve yet to have Palmer in my top ten. I’m starting to wonder if she could get in the mix for her memorable performance in the sci-fi horror tale. I should note that NYFCC named Lupita Nyong’o Best Actress for Peele’s Us from 2019 and she came up short with Oscar voters.

The rest of the categories all showcased viable contenders in their respective competitions. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On picked up Animated Feature and I expect it to get love from the critics. Same with Non-Fiction Film and All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (I have it ranked first in Oscar’s Documentary Feature). Poland’s EO was a slightly unexpected choice in Foreign Film over Decision to Leave (which I have pegged as the soft frontrunner for the Academy). Finally, Top Gun: Maverick aced Cinematography and it should get an Oscar nod there for the thrilling aerial camerawork.