Tag: Antonio Banderas

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    Paddington in Peru Box Office Prediction

    After a seven year absence from the big screen, Sony hopes families are itching to watch Paddington in Peru over the Valentine’s/Presidents’ Day long weekend. The third feature in the franchise mixing live action/animation has Dougal Wilson taking over directorial duties from Paul King. Based on Michael Bond’s children’s books, Ben Whishaw returns to voice the titular bear. Other cast members include Hugh Bonneville, Emily Mortimer (replacing Sally Hawkins), Madeleine Harris, Samuel Joslin, Julie Walters, Jim Broadbent, Olivia Colman, Antonio Banderas, Imelda Staunton, Carla Tous, and Hayley Atwell.

    Just over a decade ago, Paddington kicked off to $18.9 million from Friday to Sunday and $25.4 million over the extended MLK frame of 2015. Three years later, Paddington 2 started on the same holiday weekend to lesser results ($11 million for the three-day and $15 million when counting Monday). That’s despite fantastic reviews for the sequel as it notably sports a 99% RT rating.

    Critical reaction for Peru is at 93% on that site though most notices say it falls short of its predecessors. In the United Kingdom, it achieved the best debut of the trilogy. The lengthy wait between features could prevent that from happening stateside though it is certainly achievable. I do think it will manage to outpace the second tale.

    Paddington in Peru opening weekend prediction: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $17 million (Friday to Monday)

    For my Captain America: Brave New World prediction, click here:

    Captain America: Brave New World Box Office Prediction

    Babygirl Box Office Prediction

    Following its Venice Film Festival premiere to mostly strong reviews early in the fall, Babygirl is delivered to theaters on Christmas Day. The steamy thriller casts Nicole Kidman and Harris Dickinson in a Fatal Attraction scenario. Halina Reijn directs with a supporting cast including Sophie Wilde and Antonio Banderas.

    The A24 release has generated some Oscar buzz for Ms. Kidman. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 85% with 80 on Metacritic. Babygirl hopes to bring in a female crowd over the holidays but its appeal could be limited. Look for a mid single digits output from Friday to Sunday and throw in $2-3 million more when factoring in the 25th and 26th.

    Babygirl opening weekend prediction: $4.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $6.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

    For my Nosferatu prediction, click here:

    Nosferatu Box Office Prediction

    For my A Complete Unknown prediction, click here:

    A Complete Unknown Box Office Prediction

    For my The Fire Inside prediction, click here:

    The Fire Inside Box Office Prediction

    Oscar Predictions: Paddington in Peru

    The title character that first debuted over 65 years ago in Michael Bond’s children’s books is onscreen for the third time via Paddington in Peru. The mix of live-action and animation arrives a decade after Paddington and seven years after the sequel with Dougal Wilson taking over directorial duties from Paul King. Ben Whishaw is back voicing the bear with a supporting cast including Hugh Bonneville, Emily Mortimer (replacing Sally Hawkins), Julie Walters, Jim Broadbent, Madeleine Harris, Samuel Joslin, Olivia Colman, Imelda Staunton, and Antonio Banderas. It arrives in the United Kingdom Friday with its North American release not coming until January 17th (therefore making it eligible for the Oscars after the next one).

    This is, in fact, more of a BAFTA Predictions write-up than an Oscar one. Neither of Peru‘s predecessors generated Academy attention despite warm reviews. On the other hand, the British Academy bit. The original was nominated for Best British Film and for its Adapted Screenplay. Part 2 was up for the same pair of awards plus Hugh Grant in Supporting Actor. The pics went 0 for 5 in terms of victories.

    The Rotten Tomatoes score for the third adventure is 91%. Yet it’s Metacritic that tells the real story. Paddington had 77 on that site while the sequel improved upon that with 88. Peru is stuck at 58. That probably means that BAFTA will not honor part 3 in any way. My Oscar… and BAFTA related… Prediction posts will continue…

    Oscar Predictions: The Room Next Door

    The Room Next Door marks Pedro Almodóvar’s English-language debut after a lengthy and lauded filmography of Spanish language titles. It has premiered at the Venice fest prior to its December 20th awards qualifying stateside bow. Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton, who have won previously Academy Awards for Still Alice and Michael Clayton respectively, headline the drama based on Sigrid Nunez’s 2020 novel. John Turturro and Alessandro Nivola costar.

    Almodóvar’s two predecessors earned acting nods for their leads: 2019’s Pain and Glory for Antonio Banderas in Best Actor and 2021’s Parallel Mothers for Penelope Cruz in Actress. With Room, this is said to be a two-hander with Moore likely competing in lead and Swinton in supporting. Early reviews are mostly fine though some are not claiming this is the filmmaker’s most notable efforts. I don’t think Picture or Director are in the cards though Adapted Screenplay could happen.

    Moore seems unlikely as Actress could be crowded. It is Swinton who could make a play according to the buzz and I have her right in about the 5-7 slot area of contention. My next update (coming very soon) will work out whether she makes the current cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    Oscar Predictions: Babygirl

    Dutch filmmaker Halina Reijn follows up 2022’s Bodies Bodies Bodies (which had its ardent admirers and vocal detractors) with the sultry thriller Babygirl. The A24 release, slated for a domestic bow on Christmas, has been unveiled at the Venice Film Festival. Nicole Kidman stars as a CEO in a May-December romance. The supporting players include Harris Dickinson (soon to be seen in Steve McQueen’s awards hopeful Blitz), Antonio Banderas, and Sophie Wilde.

    Kidman, a five-time nominee who won Actress for 2001’s The Hours, is receiving her share of solid ink. The RT score for the picture itself is at 85% though reviews indicate more reactions might be mixed. Babygirl‘s only real shot at Academy attention is with the veteran headliner. A24 went 0 for 2 in their campaigns last year for Greta Lee (Past Lives) and Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla) and competition appears significant already for the 97th broadcast.

    I wouldn’t totally discount Kidman’s chances to make a run, but the odds are probably just fair. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    Journey to Bethlehem Box Office Prediction

    Production company Affirm Films is hoping faith-based viewers make a destination trip to Journey to Bethlehem on November 10th. The live-action musical marks the directorial debut of Adam Anders with a cast including Fiona Palomo, Milo Manheim, Lecrae, and Antonio Banderas.

    Slated to open on approximately 1800 screens, Bethlehem is a tricky one to project. Pics catering to a Christian audience can certainly rise above expectations. Yet I suspect this one (if it gets solid word-of-mouth) could play steadily throughout the holiday season and maybe not post an overly impressive opening.

    Recent Affirm titles include Big George Foreman, Overcomer, and Paul, Apostle of Christ. None of them opened to over $10 million. I’ll project this doesn’t either and it may not make half of that, but we’ll say how it legs out.

    Journey to Bethlehem opening weekend prediction: $4.8 million

    For my The Marvels prediction, click here:

    The Marvels Box Office Prediction

    For my The Holdovers prediction, click here:

    The Holdovers Box Office Prediction

    Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Review

    With James Mangold taking over directorial duties from Steven Spielberg and Harrison Ford now an octogenarian, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny risks ending the 42-year-old franchise as almost an afterthought. Luckily it manages to capture the Indy spirit in fits and starts. This is not the travesty that some in the social media spiral of spin will claim it is. For that matter, neither was 2008’s derided predecessor Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. That film, however, was a bit of a mess. Destiny is stronger though it does not match the quality of the deservedly storied trilogy from 1981-89.

    To borrow a phrase from Brad Pitt in Inglourious Basterds, Indy’s gonna be doin’ one thing and one thing only… killin’ Nazis. At least that’s where we begin in a 1944 set prologue. Dr. Jones (de-aged by pretty effective visual effects) and colleague Basil Shaw (Toby Jones) are battling Hitler’s troops as they seek the Lance of Longinus (the weapon used to pierce Christ during the crucifixion). This turns out to be a fool’s errand. However, the archaeologists do come upon half of a dial invented by Archimedes that’s rumored to allow for time travel. Nazi physicist Jürgen Voller (Mads Mikkelsen) needs it to reverse his team losing the war. Yet the more youthful Indy manages to wrestle it away.

    Flashing forward to 1969, the Professor is retiring from his teaching job. It seems the aging iconic action hero hung up the whip some time ago. His marriage to Marion (Karen Allen) is on the ropes and Jones seems destined for an uninspired last few years in a cramped NYC apartment. Enter Helena (Phoebe Waller-Bridge), his goddaughter to now deceased Basil. While Indy’s neighbors and the American people are preoccupied with the imminent moon landing, Helena wants her out of touch godfather dialed back into the dial business. She gets the reluctant retiree to don the fedora to find the other half. Her young sidekick Teddy (Ethann Isidore) is along for the ride. Voller, now living under an assumed named and working for NASA, hasn’t forgotten about it in the last quarter century as he and head henchman Klaber (Boyd Holbrook) attempt to forcefully retrieve it.

    The globetrotting commences from NYC to Morocco and Greece and eventually some really unforeseen places. Just as Crystal Skull finally brought a Spielberg mainstay alien subplot to the Indy mix (to much derision, some warranted), Destiny gets the Marty/Doc Brown vibe happening. I won’t delve into the spoiler centric details, but I will say this. The ending portions may not work very well in execution, but it does continue this franchise’s tradition of giving us bonkers third acts. I’m just sayin’ you may need to do a series rewatch if you think Destiny‘s climax is too out there. This is not necessarily a bad thing.

    As mentioned, there are frequent instances where this captures the mood of what we dug in the 1980s. I experienced it in a chase scene or two (one during a ticker tape parade is a highlight). I found Waller-Bridge to be a better partner in artifact retrieval than Shia LaBeouf’s Mutt from 15 years ago. Yes, the brief reappearance of Sallah from Raiders and Last Crusade (John Rhys-Davies) feels tacked on. The runtime can feel as exhausted as our title character these days. It is those old-timers that provide the most memorable parts whether it’s the John Williams score or Mr. Ford still nailing the gruff yet caring legend. Does the nostalgia feel forced at times? Sure. It’s still one small step up from when we last saw Indy.

    *** (out of four)

    Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Box Office Prediction

    Ahh, the 80s. It’s a decade where filmmakers (many of whom came of age at the time) are constantly prodding our nostalgic sensibilities. That’s when the Spielberg/Lucas collaborative trilogy of Raiders of the Lost Ark, Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, and Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade gave Harrison Ford another iconic role and moviegoers another classic franchise. In 2008, Ford donned the fedora again to more mixed results with Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. The 80s now describes the lead’s own age (he became an octogenarian last summer). Indy is back as James Mangold takes over directorial duties with Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, the time travel adventure that marks the fifth and last entry in the series. The Logan and Ford v Ferrari maker also has Karen Allen and John Rhys-Davies reprising their roles. Other supporting players include Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Mads Mikkelsen, Antonio Banderas, Toby Jones, Boyd Holbrook, and Ethann Isidore.

    With a whopping budget reportedly approaching $300 million, Disney is banking on crowds of all ages making the multiplex trek. That’s not a sure thing as we all just witnessed The Flash go belly up. Destiny attempted to generate solid buzz when it premiered last month at the Cannes Film Festival. It might’ve had the opposite effect. Reviews were middling and it currently stands at just 59% on Rotten Tomatoes (the oft maligned Skull sits at 77%). Another factor is that younger viewers may not have the sentimentality for Indy that older ones hold.

    Fifteen summers ago, Skull premiered on Thursday ahead of a long Memorial Day holiday weekend. It amassed over $150 million for the five-day haul. A three-day take of $100 million would be welcome news for the Mouse Factory. I’m skeptical if that’s achievable. In fact, I’m questioning whether it reaches the figure that shares Ford’s age. Anything under $80 million would certainly be considered a disappointment and that’s where I have this landing. In fact, I’m only going mid-6os for what would be considered a massive letdown.

    Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny opening weekend prediction: $65.3 million

    For my Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken prediction, click here:

    Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken Box Office Prediction

    Oscar Predictions: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

    At last year’s Cannes Film Festival, Top Gun: Maverick screened at Cannes and that premiere kicked off its soaring buzz. The eventual result was box office nearing $1.5 billion and six Oscar nominations (including Picture). Disney would love for a similar result with Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, the fifth adventure in a franchise that began with an iconic 80s classic.

    Harrison Ford dons the fedora once again (and for the final time) 42 years after Raiders of the Lost Ark. Steven Spielberg has handed over directorial duties to James Mangold. Costars for the reported $300 million production include Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Mads Mikkelsen, Antonio Banderas, John Rhys-Davies (as series favorite Sallah), Shaunette Renée Wilson, Thomas Kretschmann, Toby Jones, Boyd Holbrook, and Ethann Isidore.

    It’s been 15 years since previous entry Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (which was also unveiled in the south of France). Let’s catch up on the Academy’s history and their love for Dr. Jones (or lack thereof). Raiders, back in 1981, nabbed 8 nominations (including Picture and Director though not Actor for Ford). The win total was four (Art Direction, Film Editing, Score, Visual Effects). Three years later, Temple of Doom managed two mentions in Score and Visual Effects (winning the latter). 1989’s Last Crusade received three nods and took the now defunct Special Effects Editing race. In 2008, Skull was derided by many critics and filmgoers. It was blanked at the Oscars.

    We are obviously very early when it comes to reviews for Destiny. However, signs are troubling. The Rotten Tomatoes score (based on 7 write-ups) is 43%. Social media reaction from those in attendance overseas is also quite mixed. A safe assumption is this won’t be the next Maverick. I suppose John Williams in Score or Sound or Visual Effects (though there are gripes about this digitization) is feasible. Another likely result is this ends up contending in the same number of competitions as its predecessor. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…