Tag: Joel Coen

99th Academy Awards Predictions: July 19th Edition

Moviegoers continue to get new looks at potential Oscar contenders in the last couple of weeks since my last predictions. We got our first extended glimpse for Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu’s Digger and it has sparked plenty of social media chatter for what appears to be a big swing for the filmmaker and Tom Cruise. I could see this going either way. For now I’m keeping it above the line in several of my forecasts.

This is the weekend where Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is dominating the box office with the review embargo having lifted four days ago. The results are impressive with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 89 Metacritic. It is a threat not only to be nominated in Best Picture and Director (which appears automatic) but to win. As I wrote about in my detailed prediction post, the acting races shifted a bit in my calculations. The “in or out” debate regarding Matt Damon continues. However, Anne Hathaway seems to have solidified a spot in Supporting Actress. Her costar Samantha Morton’s inclusion is less likely unless Universal mounts a spirited campaign. As for the Supporting Actors, Robert Pattinson/Tom Holland/John Leguizamo could materialize. Yet I wouldn’t be surprised if no consensus emerges among them and they all miss the cut.

Fall festivals are beginning to announce their lineups. The opener at Venice was revealed to be Danny Boyle’s Ink starring Jack O’Connell, Guy Pearce (as media titan Rupert Murdoch), and Claire Foy. This was a surprise considering the release date was expected to be 2027. It was also announced that Netflix will carry U.S. distribution rights. Now it’s a question mark whether the streamer will choose a limited theatrical engagement in 2026 followed by the small screen output. The high profile Venice slot has me leaning toward a premiere before the calendar year closes. It joins my lineup just on the outside looking in with Pearce projected in Supporting Actor.

Speaking of release date uncertainty, we still don’t know if Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven (an adaptation of an Anne Rice novel) is out this year. I’m still listing it, but it drops out of my BP lineup. The beneficiary of that change is Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth! which unveiled its first trailer this week. Leading man Pedro Pascal also makes the cut for the first time over Sebastian Stan (Fjord). There’s also chatter that Joel Coen’s Jack of Spades is moving to 2027 and I’m moving it outside of my projections at press time.

The Toronto Film Festival’s lineup is beginning trickle out with Sian Heder’s Being Heumann serving as the opener and Prima Facie with Cynthia Erivo tagged as a gala presentation. Paper Tiger from James Gray, which played at Cannes to a mostly positive though not overwhelming reception, will be first out of the gate at the New York Film Festival.

You can read all the movement from the last two weeks below and expect a fresh update in a couple of weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Digger (PR: 3) (-2)

6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Behemoth! (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Obsession (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Invite (PR: 17) (+5)

13. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

14. A Place in Hell (PR: 14) (E)

15. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (-5)

16. The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (-3)

17. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (-2)

18. Fatherland (PR: 16) (-2)

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)

20. Michael (PR: 21) (+1)

21. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

22. Artificial (PR: 18) (-4)

23. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (E)

24. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (-4)

25. Josephine (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Werwulf

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javie Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 13) (+5)

9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)

12. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-5)

15. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell

Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 15) (+8)

8. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (E)

13. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 14) (E)

15. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Rami Malek, The Man I Love

Javier Bardem, The Beloved

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (E)

7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Halle Bailey, The Debut

Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-6)

11. Guittarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 14) (+3)

12. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

Jesse Plemons, Digger

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Obsession (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (E)

8. Club Kid (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Primetime (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Artificial (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Fatherland (PR: 13) (+1)

13. The Drama (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Only Living Pickpocket Living in New York (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)

5. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Wildwood (PR: 13) (E)

14. Prima Facie (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Minotaur (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

A Long Winter

Best International Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)

3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)

4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)

5. Coward (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rose (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Possible Love (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Mimesis (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Beloved (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2 (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Tangles (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hoppers (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (+1)

8. In Waves (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hexed (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Minions & Monsters

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)

2. 14th (PR: Not Ranked)

3. One in a Million (PR: 7) (+4)

4. American Doctor (PR: 6) (+2)

5. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 2) (-4)

7. The History of Concrete (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 9) (+1)

9. When a Witness Recants (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Time and Water (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Everybody to Kenmure Street

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Behemoth!

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Werwulf (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Michael (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)

9. I Love Boosters (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 4) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Fjord (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Obsession

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)

3. Clayface (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Michael (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicker (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Bride! (PR: 9) (E)

10. Is God Is (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Madden

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wildwood (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

The Social Reckoning

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (E)

7. TBD from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

8. TBD from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 7) (-2)

10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Hexed

“Save the Day” from Hoppers

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Backrooms (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Wuthering Heights (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Disclosure Day (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Whalefall (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Michael (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Werwulf (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Obsession

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Whalefall (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)

7. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)

8. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Mandalorian and Grogu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wildwood

That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Odyssey

13 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Digger, Project Hail Mary

7 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

Fjord

5 Nominations

The Debut, Dune: Part Three

4 Nominations

Behemoth!

3 Nominations

Michael, Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, The Invite, A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5, Whalefall

1 Nomination

14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Coward, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Wildwood

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) is our first director to be considered in that category.

Previous Directing Nominations:

2007: There Will Be Blood (lost to Joel and Ethan Coen for No Country for Old Men); 2017: Phantom Thread (lost to Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water); 2021: Licorice Pizza (lost to Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog)

The Case for Paul Thomas Anderson:

Plenty! PTA has won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice for his behind the camera work and is nominated at BAFTA. Most notably, he won the Director’s Guild of America (DGA) prize and that correlates with the Oscar winner the vast majority of the time (including five cycles in a row). This is Anderson’s fourth try at the direction award, but his contributions as a producer, director, and writer for his three-decade old career mark his 12th, 13th, and 14th overall Academy mentions. He’s yet to get a trophy. Those nods are spread out over the aforementioned Blood, Thread, and Pizza but also Boogie Nights, Magnolia, and Inherent Vice. To say there might be voting members who think he’s overdue is an understatement. Battle is the BP frontrunner or at least shares that title with Sinners.

The Cast Against Paul Thomas Anderson:

Sinners. After receiving a record 16 nominations, the chances for the vampire tale to win BP has increased. If the Academy fills their ballots down the line, Ryan Coogler could be the beneficiary of that love.

The Verdict:

DGA makes PTA the heavy favorite even if Sinners (or something else) takes BP.

My Case Of posts will continue with the second Best Actress contender – Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You…

Oscar Predictions: Honey Don’t!

Before to its domestic debut in August, Honey Don’t! dropped at Cannes for a midnight screening. The crime comedy is Ethan Coen and wife Tricia Cooke’s follow-up to last year’s Drive-Away Dolls. It also stars Margaret Qualley with a supporting cast including Aubrey Plaza, Charlie Day, and Chris Evans.

Marking Ethan’s second narrative work sans brother Joel (and with Cookie co-scripting), Don’t! mostly arrived with a shrug in France. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 54% with Metacritic at 47. That’s below the respective 63/56 ratings for Dolls. Coen’s “first” picture never came close to being an awards contender and this won’t either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Drive-Away Dolls

Ethan Coen makes his solo directorial debut with Drive-Away Dolls, which parks in theaters this Friday and is co-scripted by his wife Tricia Cooke. Originally slated for a fall 2023 bow until the five month push, the screwball road comedy clocks in at a brisk 84 minutes. Margaret Qualley and Geraldine Viswanathan star with a supporting cast including Beanie Feldstein, Colman Domingo, Pedro Pascal, Bill Camp, and Matt Damon.

In 2021, Ethan’s brother Joel made his first behind the camera effort sans his sibling with The Tragedy of Macbeth. That Shakespearian tale garnered three Oscar nods for Actor (Denzel Washington), Cinematography, and Production Design.

Early reviews for Dolls are all over the map with a current RT rating of 72%. Attention from the Academy seems highly unlikely. I’m not confident the Globes will bite either in their Musical/Comedy competitions (though maybe Qualley or Viswanathan could sneak in if the Actress race is weak). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Drive-Away Dolls Box Office Prediction

Ethan Coen of the legendary Coen Brothers makes his solo directorial debut (not counting his documentary Jerry Lee Lewis: Trouble in Mind) with Drive-Away Dolls on February 23rd. He cowrote the road comedy with his wife Tricia Cooke and it follows brother Joel’s initial solo work The Tragedy of Macbeth from 2021. Margaret Qualley and Geraldine Viswanathan star with a supporting cast including Beanie Feldstein, Colman Domingo, Pedro Pascal, Bill Camp, and Matt Damon.

Dolls was originally slated for September of last year before the five-month delay. That eliminated the possibility of a festival run or awards buzz and this seems to be flying under the radar. Despite some high profile cast members and a reported 2000 screen count, this may only bring out the hardest core Coen followers. That should mean a stalled start.

Drive-Away Dolls opening weekend prediction: $2.6 million

For my Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training prediction, click here:

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training Box Office Prediction

For my Ordinary Angels prediction, click here:

Ordinary Angels Box Office Prediction

Best Picture 2007: The Expanded Ten

Earlier this summer, I completed a blog series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!

Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there were always five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.

This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in. It started with 2008 and that post can be accessed here:

Best Picture 2008: The Expanded Ten

We now move to 2007. And we, of course, know five movies that would make the cut. That would be the quintet of pics that got nominated. No Country for Old Men from the Coen Brothers was the night’s big winner with four victories: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor (Javier Bardem), and Adapted Screenplay. It also nabbed four additional nominations.

Tying Country for the most mentions is Paul Thomas Anderson’s There Will Be Blood with 8 nods and two wins for Actor (Daniel Day-Lewis) and Cinematography.

The other three contenders all took home one Oscar. Joe Wright’s Atonement received 7 noms and was victorious for the Original Score. Jason Reitman’s Juno tallied 4 mentions and a win in Original Screenplay. Tony Gilroy’s Michael Clayton achieved 7 nods with Tilda Swinton taking Supporting Actress.

Moving to the five pictures that I believe would’ve joined an expanded cut, Pixar strikes again. For 2008, I picked Wall-E as an addition. For 2007, the acclaimed Ratatouille had five nominations and a win for Animated Feature. I believe that’s enough that we would’ve seen it included.

The same goes for Julian Schnabel’s The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. Schnabel was in the mix for Best Director and it was also up in heavy hitter races Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Film Editing. It could’ve been #6 on the board.

After that, it gets a little tricky. There are a few films that generated a couple of important nods, but didn’t manage to break out elsewhere. Away from Her saw Julie Christie in contention for Actress plus an Adapted Screenplay mention. The Savages saw Laura Linney in Best Actress along with Original Screenplay. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford made two lists for Supporting Actor (Casey Affleck and Cinematography). Yet its reputation has grown in time. Elizabeth: The Golden Age saw Cate Blanchett in Actress and it won Costume Design. 3:10 to Yuma was up for Original Score and Sound Mixing. Ultimately I decided none of these would make the dance.

The hardest film to leave off was The Bourne Ultimatum. The third chapter in Matt Damon’s action franchise went 3 for 3 by taking both Sound races (they’ve since been combined) and Film Editing. However, I just couldn’t pull the trigger on it finding a spot among the ten.

The second toughest to leave off is La Vie en Rose for which Marion Cotillard took home Best Actress (as well as a Makeup victory). It didn’t, on the other hand, score well in precursors.

So what other three pictures get in? Tim Burton’s Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street won Art Direction and was up for Actor (Johnny Depp) and Costume Design. It also nabbed a Critics Choice nod and won the Golden Globe for Musical/Comedy (over Juno).

The Globes and Critics Choice also found room for Ridley Scott’s American Gangster. It underperformed at Oscar with two inclusions for Supporting Actress and Art Direction. Yet I suspect it might’ve just made it.

Into the Wild from Sean Penn is my final pick. It was another underwhelming performer with two spots for Supporting Actor (Hal Holbrook) and Film Editing. The Critics Choice inclusion puts it barely over some of the aforementioned hopefuls.

There you have it! That means my expanded ten 2007 lineup consists of:

American Gangster

Atonement

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Into the Wild

Juno

Michael Clayton

No Country for Old Men

Ratatouille

Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

There Will Be Blood

2006 will be up next!

Best Picture 2010: The Final Five

After the 2008 Oscars, the Academy decided to expand the number of Best Picture nominees from five to ten. This rule would hold for 2009 and 2010 and then it shifted from anywhere between 5 and 10 (where it was typically 8 or 9). As of 2021, we’re back to a set 10.

Yet what if that had never happened? What if only five nominees from the last decade plus made the cut? My initial writeup where I predicted which five from 2009 would have done so can be found here:

Best Picture 2009: The Final Five

Now we move to 2010. It was a year in which Tom Hooper’s The King’s Speech led the evening with 11 nominations. It would win four – Director, Colin Firth for Best Actor, Original Screenplay, and the big prize Picture. So there’s 20% of our theoretical lineup.

As for the others, let’s take them one by one and I’ll give my thoughts on whether each would’ve made that other 80% of the quintet.

127 Hours

In 2010, Danny Boyle was coming off 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire. That little film that could cleaned up on Oscar night with 8 trophies including Picture. This survival drama with James Franco landed six nods. It won zero, but earned recognition in the Best Pic prerequisites that count like screenplay and editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. This is a tough one. As you’ll see below, there are more than five pics that check important boxes. My hunch is that it would’ve nabbed the fifth slot (though you may feel differently when you read on and I tell you what doesn’t make my cut).

Black Swan

Darren Aronofsky’s intense balletic drama earned Natalie Portman an Actress statue and four other nods: Director, Cinematography, and Film Editing. Certainly the director and editing mentions are notable as is Portman’s victory.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. When Picture and Director were both set at five, they rarely matched. 4 out of 5 directors matching the BP nominations was most common. Here’s an example where I don’t think a match would’ve occurred. The biggest reason? Of the 10 BP nominees, Swan is the only one that didn’t land a screenplay nod. That’s significant.

The Fighter

Mark Wahlberg’s passion project didn’t land him a nod, but it did for three of his costars. Christian Bale took home Supporting Actor while onscreen mother Melissa Leo won Supporting Actress (with Amy Adams also nominated). The direction, screenplay, and editing also were up for a total of 7 nominations.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. The wins in the two acting races and the fact that it hit in all the key precursors give the relevant tale of the tape.

Inception

There’s speculation that the reason the Academy switched to 10 nominees is because Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight was omitted from the five in 2008. His follow-up two years later did not miss the expanded cut. It won Oscars for half of its 8 nominations – Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Cinematography, and Visual Effects. The other three nods besides Picture were Original Screenplay, Score, and Art Direction.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. And here’s where some readers may disagree. I’m giving 127 Hours an ever so slight edge over this. Why? The 8 nods don’t mean much to me because the bulk of them are in tech races. By the way, The Dark Knight also received 8 nominations. Its misses are what make me skeptical as Nolan didn’t get in for his direction and it also wasn’t up for editing.

The Kids Are All Right 

The family drama received acting mentions for Annette Bening and Mark Ruffalo and for its original screenplay.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. Too many heavy hitters this year and it was probably toward the bottom of the ten that got in.

The Social Network

David Fincher’s saga about the founding of Facebook won three of its 8 nods in Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, and Score.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes… easily. It was probably #2 behind King’s Speech in terms of winning Picture and Director.

Toy Story 3

The Pixar threequel holds the distinction of being the second animated title to make the BP list after Beauty and the Beast. On Oscar night, it won Animated Feature as well as Original Song and received an Adapted Screenplay nod.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. The Academy probably would’ve been OK with it being a slam dunk Animated Feature winner if only five pics were in contention.

True Grit

The Coen Brothers Western remake was behind only King’s Speech in terms of nominations with 10. Beside Picture – you had Director(s), Actor (Jeff Bridges), Supporting Actress (Hailee Steinfeld), Adapted Screenplay, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Art Direction, Cinematography, and Costume Design. It went 0 for 10.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. Despite the batting average, the sheer volume of nods indicates it would have still been included.

Winter’s Bone

This indie drama introduced the Academy and many moviegoers to Jennifer Lawrence. She received a nomination as did her costar John Hawkes in Supporting Actor. Adapted Screenplay was in the mix too.

Does It Make the Final Five? 

No but here is a prime example of a smaller film that received attention due to the broadening of the BP base.

So that means if there had been just five Best Picture nominees in 2010, I believe they would have been:

The King’s Speech

127 Hours

The Fighter

The Social Network

True Grit

I will be back soon with my final five take on 2011!

Best Picture 2009: The Final Five

And now for a new category on my blog that will update itself yearly after 13 initial posts covering 2009-21. It’s a simple concept. In 2009 – the Academy shifted their rules from a set amount of five Best Picture nominees to 10. That lasted for 2 years. In 2011, the number could fluctuate anywhere from 5-10. In most years, the magic number was 8 or 9 (it was never less than 8). Last year, the big race reverted back to a definite 10.

So… what if it hadn’t? What if 5 nominees was never altered? Well, Oscar speculators like yours truly would have to write posts predicting what would’ve been the final five. So that’s what this is all about.

Naturally it begins with 2009. Before that, something from 2008 might’ve contributed to the shift when The Dark Knight famously missed BP even though it was a critical darling and box office smash. A shift to 10 allowed popcorn favorites and smaller titles to make the cut. And they did.

When it comes to whittling down from 10 (or later 8 or 9) to five, there’s plenty of factors in play. What else did the movie get nominated for or win? Some races are more important than others like Director and Editing or the Screenplay derbies.

Yet it’s far from an exact science. This is educated guesswork based on Oscar history. I’ll walk through each title and give an ultimate Yes or No on whether it makes the five. The first is automatic and that’s whatever won. In 2009 that honor belonged to…

The Hurt Locker

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes because it won Best Picture.

The other 9? That’s where it gets interesting. Let’s take them alphabetically, shall we?

Avatar

When Oscar nominations rolled out near the beginning of 2010, James Cameron’s 3D sensation was basking in the glow of becoming the biggest movie ever. That meant he was breaking his own record from 13 years earlier with Titanic. Cameron was nominated for Director – losing to ex-wife Kathryn Bigelow for Locker. The film also didn’t manage a Screenplay nod though Cameron is known more for his technical prowess than writing skills. On the tech side it managed 7 nods and won three (Art Direction, Cinematography, Visual Effects). So…

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. Though it lost a number of its nods to Locker, the gargantuan grosses would’ve been enough for it to advance.

The Blind Side

Sandra Bullock’s crowd pleasing football drama made her an Oscar winner. Yet those are the only two nominations it received as it couldn’t make the Adapted Screenplay shortlist. In fact, Avatar and this are the only two BP nominees not to see their scripts mentioned.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. This is a perfect example of a blockbuster getting in due to the expansion that wouldn’t have with just five.

District 9

Neill Blomkamp’s acclaimed sci-fi tale was a surprise summer hit and he’s yet to replicate its mix of audience and critical appreciation. It was nominated in three other races – Adapted Screenplay, Visual Effects, and Film Editing. No wins.

Does It Make the Final Five?

This one is actually close for me. The screenplay and editing nods certainly make it doable. If it had landed Director, I’d probably say yes. A bit of a coin flip, but I’ll land on No.

An Education

The coming-of-age pic scored Carey Mulligan an Actress nod as well as Adapted Screenplay.

Does It Make the Final Five?

It’s not totally out of the realm of possibility that it could’ve snuck in, but gotta go No. It missed a Golden Globe nod for example and a lot of the focus was on Mulligan’s work.

Inglourious Basterds

Quentin Tarantino’s WWII opus was his return to significant awards attention 15 years following Pulp Fiction. In addition to the Pic nod, he was nominated for his direction and screenplay (losing both to Locker). Other nominations: Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Cinematography, Film Editing, and a Supporting Actor victory for Christoph Waltz.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. The 8 nominations are enough to indicate as much.

Precious

The breakthrough drama from Lee Daniels scored five other mentions for Directing, Gabourey Sidibe in Actress, Mo’Nique in Supporting Actress (a victory), Adapted Screenplay (another win), and Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. The screenplay win puts it over the top.

A Serious Man

The Coen Brothers dark comedy received just one other nod for their screenplay with acclaimed lead Michael Stuhlbarg missing the Best Actor cut.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Even with the love for its brotherly makers – No.

Up

As far as I’m concerned, the Pixar masterpiece’s first few minutes should win Best Picture every year. The tearjerker was a rare animated Best Picture contender and it contended for four others. It obviously won Animated Feature as well as Original Score in addition to mentions in Original Screenplay and Sound Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

I’m saying No, but I’m not sure of that. I’d probably put it sixth.

Up in the Air

Our other Up contender is Jason Reitman’s workplace dramedy which received six nods. The others were Director, Actor (George Clooney), Supporting Actress (both Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick), and Adapted Screenplay.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. While it retrieved no statues, I think it would’ve just edged other hopefuls such as Up or District 9.

So that means if 2009 had just five Best Picture nominees, I believe they would’ve been:

The Hurt Locker (winner)

Avatar

Inglourious Basterds

Precious

Up in the Air 

An important note – the movies here match the five Best Director nominees. That’s rare and that will be rare in subsequent postings on years that follow. From 2000-2008 that only occurred twice (2005 and 2008). So don’t get used to it.

I shall return soon with my rumblings and final five for 2010!

Oscar Predictions – Jerry Lee Lewis: Trouble in Mind

Baz Luhrmann’s eagerly awaited Elvis isn’t the only feature about a 60s rock icon premiering at Cannes this week. We also have Jerry Lee Lewis: Trouble in Mind, a documentary that marks the solo directorial debut of Ethan Coen. Just last year, his brother Joel’s first filmmaking foray without his brother The Tragedy of Macbeth nabbed three Oscar nods.

Trouble faces a more troubled path to awards attention. Early critical reaction puts it at 70% on Rotten Tomatoes. The story is apparently told almost entirely through archival interviews and it may appeal only to diehard fans of the troubled and dynamic singer.

Way back in 1989, Mr. Lewis got the biopic treatment with Dennis Quaid portraying the piano man in Great Balls of Fire! It received mixed reaction as well and didn’t resonate with the Academy. This probably won’t either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars 2021: The Case of Denzel Washington

Denzel Washington title performance in Joel Coen’s The Tragedy of Macbeth is the fifth and final Case Of post for the Best Actor nominees. If you missed the other ones, they’re right here:

Oscars 2021: The Case of Javier Bardem

Oscars 2021: The Case of Benedict Cumberbatch

Oscars 2021: The Case of Andrew Garfield

Oscars 2021: The Case of Will Smith

The Case for Denzel Washington:

He’s certainly achieved the most nominations of the quintet and this marks his third in lead actor in the past six years. Washington’s Shakespearian turn landed him mentions at the Globes, SAG, and Critics Choice.

The Case Against Denzel Washington:

Macbeth underwhelmed on Oscar nomination morning with just two additional nods (Cinematography and Production Design). He’s lost the Globe and SAG to Will Smith (King Richard), who stands as the favorite.

Previous Nominations: 8

Cry Freedom (Supporting Actor – 1987); Glory (Supporting Actor – 1989, WON); Malcolm X (Actor – 1992); The Hurricane (Actor – 1999); Training Day (Actor – 2001, WON); Flight (Actor – 2012); Fences (Actor – 2016); Roman J. Israel, Esq. (Actor – 2017)

The Verdict: 

20 years ago, Washington’s Best Actor victory for Training Day prevented a Will Smith win for Ali. Two decades later, it’s likely the Fresh Prince keeping Mr. Washington from Oscar statue #3. I’d also say he’s behind Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) and Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick… Boom!).

My Case Of posts will continue with the final Supporting Actress hopeful – Aunjanue Ellis for King Richard…