Gotham Awards Reaction 2018

It’s only mid-October, but the first significant precursor of awards season rolled out nominations today in the form of the Gotham Awards. If you’re not familiar, the Gothams honor independent film in a limited number of categories.

While not as prolific as the Golden Globes or SAG nominations, there has been a correlation with movies and performers nominated here getting Oscar attention. Let’s take a look at the past five Gotham awards nominees and how they matched up with the Academy:

In 2013, 12 Years a Slave was nominated for Best Feature and went on to win the Oscar. In the Best Actor race, eventual Academy winner Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) was victorious here and Chiwetel Ejiofor (Slave) also was nominated for both. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) was nominated here and went on to win the gold statue. It’s worth noting that the Gothams do not have supporting acting categories (we’ll get to that in a minute).

In 2014, three movies that got Best Picture nods were honored here: Birdman (Oscar winner), Boyhood, and The Grand Budapest Hotel. In the acting races, Michael Keaton (Birdman) and Oscar/Gotham winner Julianne Moore (Still Alice) were included.

For 2015, no Best Actor nominees for the Gothams correlated to Oscars. However, there were actress match-ups with Oscar winner Brie Larson (Room) and Cate Blanchett (Carol). Also – the Gotham and Oscar Best Picture winners were the same – Spotlight.

That happened once again in 2016 as Moonlight won the Oscar and the Gotham. Manchester by the Sea was also nominated for both. Casey Affleck’s work in that film won Best Actor at both ceremonies. For Actress, Natalie Portman as Jackie got double nods.

Last year, two Gotham Film nominees got Best Picture recognition: Call Me by Your Name and Get Out. In Actor, it was Daniel Kaluuya for Get Out as a double recipient. In Actress, same goes for Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) and Margot Robbie (I, Tonya). And coming back to the fact that there’s no supporting races, Willem Dafoe received an Actor nomination at the Gothams for The Florida Project while being recognized for Supporting Actor at the Oscars.

So, as you can see, there’s usually some overlap for the two ceremonies. And that brings us to today’s nominees and how I think that overlap will occur this year:

In the Gotham Best Feature race, the nominees are:

The Favourite

First Reformed

If Beale Street Could Talk

Madeline’s Madeline

The River

The average number of Gotham/Oscar film nominees lately has been two and that likely holds true here with The Favourite and If Beale Street Could Talk. The other three are highly unlikely to get Academy recognition.

In the Best Actor race, the nominees are:

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Ben Foster, Leave No Trace

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

LaKeith Stanfield, Sorry to Bother You

Grant is probably this year’s Willem Dafoe and will be recognized by the Academy in Supporting Actor. Adam Driver falls in the same category, but is more of a long shot. Stanfield is out of the running for Actor at the Oscars, while Foster and Hawke remain possibilities. That said – like 2015 – this could well be a year where there’s no matches.

That is not the case with Actress and the nominees are:

Glenn Close, The Wife

Toni Collette, Hereditary

Kathryn Hahn, Private Life

Regina Hall, Support the Girls

Michelle Pfeiffer, Where is Kyra?

Collette is a possible nominee, but it’s Close that seems a near lock for Oscar attention and a possible win. The others? Not so much.

Finally, a Special Jury prize was initiated that honors the three actresses from The Favourite. That would be Olivia Colman, Emma Stone, and Rachel Weisz and all three could find themselves in the mix at Oscar time. The Gothams did the same jury designation for 2014’s Foxcatcher and 2015’s Spotlight. 

So there you have it! My take on how the Gotham Awards will relate to the biggest awards show of all…

 

Oscar Watch: Beautiful Boy

Beautiful Boy is one of the more anticipated premieres out of the Toronto Film Festival. The true life tale of a father (Steve Carell) and his drug addicted son (Timothee Chalamet), the film marks the English language debut of Belgian director Felix Van Groeningen.

Early reviews from up north are mixed. While it’s not out of the running for a Best Picture slot, it appears its chances have markedly decreased. This doesn’t hold true for the two leads, whose performances have been praised. It’s not entirely certain which categories they will be placed in, but Carell in lead Actor and Chalamet in Supporting Actor seems most probable. At this juncture, the latter race seems wide open. Chalamet was nominated just last year for his work in Call Me by Your Name. Carell earned a nod in 2014 for Foxcatcher.

As for other races, both Maura Tierney and Amy Ryan could contend for Supporting Actress, but the male leads are getting the bulk of the ink.

Bottom line: Chalamet could be a shoo-in nominee if he’s campaigned for in Supporting Actress, with lead Actor recognition for Carell less certain.

Beautiful Boy opens October 12. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Foxcatcher Movie Review

Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher is certainly an example of truth being stranger than fiction and we see it play in bizarre, unsettling, tragic, and fascinating ways in the director’s third feature. His previous two efforts, 2005’s Capote and 2011’s Moneyball, dealt with the issue of competitive nature within us and Foxcatcher does as well. This time around, it’s in a much darker fashion.

The film tells the fact based story of two Olympic gold medalists, Mark (Channing Tatum) and Dave Schulz (Mark Ruffalo) and their relationship with John du Pont (Steve Carell), heir to his family’s chemical mega fortune. Foxcatcher begins in 1987 when the brothers are training for the 1988 Summer Games in Seoul. The early proceedings show that Mark is a bit in his brother’s shadow. He has to remind others that he won the gold. Dave doesn’t seem to have that issue.

Mark’s preparation for Seoul takes a turn when he is contacted by people affiliated with Mr. du Pont, who resides on a sprawling family compound/horse ranch in Pennsylvania. He is summoned to the estate where du Pont expresses his desire to help Mark realize his goals. In the meantime, he will provide a state of the art practice facility. Dave is extended the same offer, but declines. Mark is impressionable and it doesn’t take long for du Pont to establish a strange and often creepy bond with him. Dave watches from afar with growing concern, at least initially.

du Pont’s behavior includes an affinity for guns and a highly inflated opinion of his actual ability to train young men to wrestle. Most write this off as him being an eccentric millionaire. He monograms his clothing with Team Foxcatcher, his hand picked name for his squad of brawlers. He produces documentaries about himself which extol his questionable virtues. John also has serious Mommy issues with the matriarch of the dynasty (Vanessa Redgrave).

Family issues are central to Foxcatcher and it extends to the brothers. Mark and Dave grew up poor and moved around a lot. The concept of home is foreign to them. du Pont is available to provide one for Mark and eventually Dave. The financial stability involved keep them there for longer than it should. We witness Mark go from adoration of his sibling to contempt and du Pont plays a role. We witness Dave go against his better instincts with du Pont and allow the promise of a place to settle override his genuine concerns.

Along the way, we are privy to three powerhouse performances from the leads. Carell has received the lion’s share of publicity and it’s easy to see why. The actor known mostly for his comedic talents is unrecognizable with his heavy makeup job. He oozes awkwardness and insecurity and supreme creepiness. The film is not overly concerned with delving into how du Pont became so unhinged, but we see glimpses and some suggestions as to why. And that’s mostly enough.

Tatum’s work is impressive in its own right and his performance is an accomplishment of body language, from his slightly dumb jock lumbering to a scene where his movements best represent a wounded dog who’s upset his owner. Ruffalo is the heart of the movie and yet even his heart isn’t always in the best place, when he places the aforementioned promise of a comfortable life higher than du Pont’s increasingly scary actions.

Foxcatcher is an absorbing character study of these three individuals just as Miller has done before with Truman Capote and Billy Beane. This is no doubt the bleakest of the lot, but once again the director has picked a fascinating true story and the right actors to realize his telling of it.

***1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Winner Predictions: Todd’s Take

We are officially ten days away from Neil Patrick Harris hosting the Oscars and it seems like a perfect time to chime in with an update on what and who I believe will win in the eight major categories. Next weekend – I’ll provide final predictions in all of the races. Here we go:

BEST PICTURE

Of the eight movies nominated here, it now appears only two have a legit shot at becoming 2014’s Best Picture: Richard Linklater’s Boyhood and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Birdman. The momentum still appears to be on the side of Linklater’s 12 years in the making family drama.

Predicted Winner: Boyhood

Runner-Up: Birdman

Other Nominees: American Sniper, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash 

BEST DIRECTOR

Like the Picture race, it’s between Linklater and Inarritu. This practically seems like a coin flip at this point, but I’ll give the Birdman maker the slight edge since he just won the Director’s Guild of America award (often a solid predictor of who wins here).

Predicted Winner: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Runner-Up: Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Other Nominees: Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)

BEST ACTOR

While Michael Keaton remains the front runner for his Birdman comeback, don’t sleep on the chances of Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything, especially following his somewhat surprising SAG Awards victory. I’m still clinging to Keaton winning though.

Predicted Winner: Michael Keaton, Birdman

Runner-Up: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Other Nominees: Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)

BEST ACTRESS

Julianne Moore’s work in Still Alice is widely expected to nab the celebrated actress her first golden statue. Any other winner here would be a rather big surprise.

Predicted Winner: Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Runner-Up: Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Other Nominees: Marion Cotillard (Two Days One Night), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), Reese Witherspoon (Wild)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Another easy race to predict as J.K. Simmons’ turn as the sadistic music teacher in Whiplash has won essentially all precursors. Only a Birdman sweep could mean Edward Norton is victorious and that’s a long shot.

Predicted Winner: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Runner-Up: Edward Norton, Birdman

Other Nominees: Robert Duvall (The Judge), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Like the two previous acting categories, Patricia Arquette’s Boyhood performance has scored at other awards shows and anyone but her winning would be a massive upset.

Predicted Winner: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Birdman

Other Nominees Laura Dern (Wild), Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

This is one heckuva category but again should come down to Birdman and Boyhood. Like in the Director race, Birdman gets a small edge. Watch out for Budapest as a potential spoiler.

Predicted Winner: Birdman

Runner-Up: Boyhood

Other Nominees: Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Nightcrawler

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

This would appear to be the best chance for The Imitation Game to win a major award, but Theory of Everything may be hot on its heels.

Predicted Winner: The Imitation Game

Runner-Up: The Theory of Everything

Other Nominees: American Sniper, Inherent Vice, Whiplash

And that’ll do it. Keep an eye out for final predictions next weekend!

2014 Oscar Nominations Reaction

And they’re out!

The Oscar nominations for the 2014 movie year were released this morning. As readers of the blog know, I made my final predictions yesterday evening in the eight major categories. So how did I do?

Well… not too shabby as I see it. Of the 44 nominations predicted, I correctly got 38 which equates to 86% overall and perfect scores in three of the races. Let’s take a look at the categories one by one and, for the first time, I’ll offer my initial thoughts on what and who will win:

BEST PICTURE

As mentioned last night, I finally got on the Nightcrawler bandwagon. Frankly, I should have been thinking more about the American Sniper bandwagon. It’s the only movie that received a nod that I didn’t predict. There were eight nominees instead of my estimated nine, which meant my Foxcatcher and Nightcrawler calls were left off. So overall – 7 out of 9 on Best Picture.

Nominees

American Sniper

Birdman

Boyhood

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Selma

The Theory of Everything

Whiplash

This appears to be a three film race between Boyhood, Birdman, and The Imitation Game with Boyhood appearing to have the edge. Selma was once thought to be in that mix, but today’s lack of nods in other categories render its chances virtually non-existent.

Current Predicted Winner: Boyhood

BEST DIRECTOR

Went 4 out of 5 here. Bennett Miller’s nomination for Foxcatcher was only surprising because the picture itself wasn’t recognized. I included Ana DuVernay for Selma yet her exclusion isn’t that shocking since Selma has been losing steam.

Nominees

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

For the last two years, Oscar has split their Picture and Director winners. I could easily see a scenario where Boyhood takes top prize with Inarritu’s virtuoso work in Birdman victorious in this category. This is a tough call, but for now I’ll go with Linklater’s heralded and long gestating accomplishment in Boyhood.

Predicted Winner: Linklater

BEST ACTOR

4 for 5 again. This race had turned into a seven man showdown and two were going to be left out. They were David Oyelowo in Selma (who I predicted wouldn’t be nominated) and Jake Gyllenhall in Nightcrawler (I predicted he would). The Sniper love meant Bradley Cooper picked up his third consecutive nomination and he’s the one I left out.

Nominees

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Bradley Cooper, American Sniper

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton, Birdman

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

We’ll keep this short and sweet. Cumberbatch or Redmayne could spoil, but this is Keaton’s race to lose.

Predicted Winner: Keaton

BEST ACTRESS

5 for 5 here! I’ll pat myself on the back for including Marion Cotillard’s “surprise” nom for Two Days One Night. Some were surprised at Jennifer Aniston’s exclusion for Cake, but the film was so small and reviews so not solid that I wasn’t.

Nominees

Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Like the Best Actor race, we have a big front runner here and it’s Moore (a celebrated and often nominated actress who’s never won). It’s simply hard to imagine any of the other four topping her.

Predicted Winner: Moore

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

5 for 5 again!! Not much to add here as these five actors were the expected nominees and that’s how it panned out.

Nominees

Robert Duvall, The Judge

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

Edward Norton, Birdman

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

I’m starting to sound like a broken record, but again there’s a major front runner. J.K. Simmons has won most of the precursors. Only an extremely good night for Birdman and a Norton upset seems plausible… but not that plausible.

Predicted Winner: Simmons

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

4 for 5 here as Laura Dern’s work in Wild (which I’d predicted previously but took her off) was included and Jessica Chastain’s in A Most Violent Year was excluded.

Nominees

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Laura Dern, Wild

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Emma Stone, Birdman

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

The broken record continues as Stone could reap the benefit of a Birdman love fest. However, Arquette seems to be in a solid position for gold.

Predicted Winner: Arquette

Best Original Screenplay

Perfection again – 5 for 5!!! ‘Nuff said…

Nominees

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Nightcrawler

This would appear to be the race where Birdman has an ever so slight edge over Boyhood. If there’s a spoiler, it could be Grand Budapest.

Predicted Winner: Birdman

Best Adapted Screenplay

4 for 5. The American Sniper props continued as I didn’t include it. That meant Gillian Flynn’s adaptation of her book Gone Girl was left off… which was a bit of a surprise.

Nominees

American Sniper

The Imitation Game

Inherent Vice

The Theory of Everything

Whiplash

Here, The Imitation Game seems the most likely to win and it’ll likely represent its only victory in the main races.

Predicted Winner: The Imitation Game

As for surprises in the down ticket categories, there were a couple of big ones. In the Animated Feature category, The LEGO Movie was seen to many as a potential winner and it wasn’t even nominated. In the Documentary race, the Roger Ebert pic Life Itself was shockingly left out.

Please note that my current winner predictions are not my final ones and I will have a post up the weekend before the ceremony to make those picks in all categories.

Stay tuned!

 

Todd’s Final Oscar Predictions!

Well here we are! Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning and this is my sixth and final round of predictions for nominees in the eight major categories. For my final predictions, I’ll list the predictions as well as others that could potentially make the cut. Here’s what changed the most: I have finally gotten on the Nightcrawler bandwagon and am now predicting a number of nominations for it. Tomorrow – I”ll have my reaction post up and pontificate on where I went wrong and right.

As you may know, the Best Picture race (unlike all others) can list anywhere from 5-10 nominees. I finally settled on nine… which is the same number of films nominated each year since that system was put into place. And without further adieu – Todd’s Final Oscar Predictions:

Best Picture

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Imitation Game

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Nightcrawler

Selma

The Theory of Everything

Whiplash

Other Possibilities: American Sniper, Gone Girl, Unbroken

Best Director

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Ana DuVernay, Selma

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Other Possibilities: Damien Chazelle (Whiplash), Clint Eastwood (American Sniper), David Fincher (Gone Girl), Dan Gilroy (Nightcrawler), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)

Best Actor

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Jake Gyllenhall, Nightcrawler

Michael Keaton, Birdman

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Other Possibilities: Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel), David Oyelowo (Selma)

Best Actress

Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Other Possibilities: Amy Adams (Big Eyes), Jennifer Aniston (Cake)

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Duvall, The Judge

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

Edward Norton, Birdman

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Other Possibilities: Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice), Tom Wilkinson (Selma)

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Emma Stone, Birdman

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Other Possibilities: Laura Dern (Wild), Rene Russo (Nightcrawler), Tilda Swinton (Snowpiercer), Naomi Watts (St. Vincent)

Best Original Screenplay

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Nightcrawler

Other Possibilities: The LEGO Movie, A Most Violent Year, Selma

Best Adapted Screenplay

Gone Girl

The Imitation Game

Inherent Vice

The Theory of Everything

Whiplash

Other Possibilities: American Sniper, Wild 

And there you have it, folks! We’ll see how smart (or dumb) I am tomorrow morning!!

Golden Globe Winner Predictions

We are deep into awards season with Oscar nominations coming Thursday and my final predictions arriving Tuesday. The second most notable awards show arrives tomorrow evening with trusty hosts Tina Fey and Amy Poehler returning to host the Golden Globes. Here are my guesses for what will win at that show in the major categories.

As you may know, unlike the Oscars, the Globes split the Picture and leading performance races between Drama and Musical/Comedy. Here we go!

Best Film (Drama)

Nominees

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Imitation Game

Selma

The Theory of Everything

PREDICTED WINNER: Boyhood

POTENTIAL SPOILER: The Imitation Game

 

Best Film (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees

Birdman

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Into the Woods

Pride

St. Vincent

PREDICTED WINNER: Birdman

POTENTIAL SPOILER: The Grand Budapest Hotel

 

Best Actor (Drama)

Nominees

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Jake Gyllenhall, Nightcrawler

David Oyelowo, Selma

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

PREDICTED WINNER: Redmayne

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Cumberbatch

 

Best Actress (Drama)

Nominees

Jennifer Aniston, Cake

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

PREDICTED WINNER: Moore

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Jones

 

Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees

Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Michael Keaton, Birdman

Bill Murray, St. Vincent

Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice

Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes

PREDICTED WINNER: Keaton

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Fiennes

 

Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees

Amy Adams, Big Eyes

Emily Blunt, Into the Woods

Helen Mirren, The Hundred-Foot Journey

Julianne Moore, Map to the Stars

Quvenzhane Wallis, Annie

PREDICTED WINNER: Blunt

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Adams

 

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees

Robert Duvall, The Judge

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

Edward Norton, Birdman

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

PREDICTED WINNER: Simmons

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Norton

 

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Emma Stone, Birdman

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

PREDICTED WINNER: Arquette

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Stone

 

Best Director

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Ana DuVernay, Selma

David Fincher, Gone Girl

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Richard Linklater, Boyhood

PREDICTED WINNER: Inarritu

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Linklater

…. And there you have it friends! Let’s see how the Globes turn tomorrow!