Netflix’s slew of December releases that are potential Oscar contenders continues with George Clooney’s The Midnight Sky. The sci-fi drama stars its director as an Arctic scientist attempting to prevent a group of astronauts from their return to Earth due to environmental hazards. The roughly $100 million budgeted pic hits theaters in a limited fashion this Friday though most viewers will see it when it materializes on the streaming service on December 23rd. Costars include Felicity Jones, David Oyelowo, Tiffany Boone, Kyle Chandler, Demian Bichir, and Caoilinn Springall.
The review embargo lifted today and it is most certainly a mixed bag. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is at only 54%. Numerous critics have brought up recent and similar genre fare in comparison, including Gravity (which also featured Clooney), Interstellar, The Martian, and Ad Astra. Several of them say that Sky doesn’t measure up.
It has been 15 years since Clooney’s work behind the camera has significantly attracted Oscar attention with Good Night, and Good Luck. His last two directorial efforts, The Monuments Men and Suburbicon, were both critical and commercial disappointments. With a number of write-ups skewing so-so or even negative, it’s hard to envision Sky aiming for a Picture nod or for any of the actors involved to contend.
On the other hand, reviews do suggest this could be a factor in some technical races. Most notable of them is Visual Effects, Production Design, and Sound. There is also plenty of praise for the Original Score by Alexandre Desplat, a two-time winner for his work on The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Shape of Water.
Bottom line: it will be a struggle for The Midnight Sky to reach the attention of voters in the major races, but it could still end up with close to a handful of nominations. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Today brings us my second post in my very early and quite speculative predictions on Oscar contenders for this thing we call 2020. I have already generated my initial picks for Supporting Actor and you can peruse it here:
So we arrive at Supporting Actress. In my previous writeup for the gentlemen vying for recognition this year, I went into great detail regarding the challenges of Academy forecasting in 2020. I will not rehash them in detail here, but they obviously involve the COVID-19 pandemic that has created tremendous uncertainty when it comes to release dates. There’s the typical every year questions as well such as whether certain performers will end up in lead or supporting (Olivia Colman in The Father is just one example). Netflix’s The Prom, with Meryl Streep and Nicole Kidman, is another one to watch as far as campaigns (I’ve got them both here for the moment). And I’m currently guessing that Saoirse Ronan will be in this race for Ammonite with her costar Kate Winslet going for Best Actress.
We already have some storylines that could prove fascinating if they pan out. In 2018, Olivia Colman scored a surprise win for The Favourite in lead actress over the more favored Glenn Close in The Wife. In 2020, we could certainly see them go head to head once again in supporting.
When I made my inaugural predictions post in this race in 2019, I correctly identified two of the eventual nominees in my top 5. This included winner Laura Dern in Marriage Story as well as Florence Pugh for Little Women. In my 10 other possibilities, I named Scarlett Johansson for Jojo Rabbit. I did not, however, list the other two contenders: Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) and Margot Robbie (Bombshell).
The pleasing box office performance of Ford v Ferrari assists in putting it back in my top ten predicted Best Picture guesses. It does so by displacing Bombshell, which I still certainly consider to be a very viable candidate.
While my five Best Actor estimates remains the same, this is the most competitive field in ages and that’s without official advance word on Paul Walter Hauser in Richard Jewell (which screens this week). I truly believe all ten listed thespians could get in.
I’m starting to feel that the never nominated Scarlett Johansson is going to a double nominee. I’ve vaulted her into the top 5 for Supporting Actress for Jojo Rabbit, in addition to her already likely nod in lead for Marriage Story. In Supporting, she gets in over Annette Bening in The Report.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
6. 1917 (PR: 7)
7. Little Women (PR: 6)
8. Joker (PR: 10)
9. The Two Popes (PR: 8)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. Bombshell (PR: 9)
12. The Farewell (PR: 12)
13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)
14. Rocketman (PR: 14)
15. Waves (PR: 15)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 2)
4. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
8. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
9. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)
8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
9. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 9)
10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 8)
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 7)
9. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
3. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Zhou Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 5)
8. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
9. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 3)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 6)
7. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)
8. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 8)
9. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: 10)
10. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 9)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. The Two Popes (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 5)
7. Just Mercy (PR: 7)
8. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
9. Hustlers (PR: 10)
10. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bombshell (PR: 6)
7. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Booksmart (PR: 7)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
10. Waves (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Honey Boy
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. And Then We Danced (PR: 7)
5. Beanpole (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Invisible Life (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Atlantics (PR: 4)
8. Monos (PR: 6)
9. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)
10. A White, White Day (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Papicha
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Weathering with You (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Abominable (PR: 6)
7. Missing Link (PR: 7)
8. Klaus (PR: 9)
9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 8)
10. Funan (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spies in Disguise
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. One Child Nation (PR: 2)
3. The Cave (PR: 3)
4. Honeyland (PR: 7)
5. Apollo 11 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maiden (PR: 4)
7. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 6)
8. Sea of Shadows (PR: 10)
9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 9)
10. Knock Down the House (PR: 8)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 2)
4. The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
9. Parasite (PR: 9)
10. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marriage Story
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 5)
3. Downton Abbey (PR: 2)
4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
5. Rocketman (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 6)
7. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. Cats (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Judy (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Joker
Dumbo
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. 1917 (PR: 6)
5. Parasite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marriage Story (PR: 5)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
8. Bombshell (PR: 7)
9. Joker (PR: 9)
10. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Avengers: Endgame
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Judy (PR: 3)
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
5. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 7)
7. Us (PR: 10)
8. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 8)
10. Cats (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rocketman
The Two Popes
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 2)
4. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
5. 1917 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 5)
7. Joker (PR: 9)
8. Cats (PR: 7)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
10. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Joker (PR: 5)
5. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: 9)
10. Ad Astra (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 4)
4. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)
5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 7)
7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 6)
8. “Show Yourself” from Frozen II (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 9)
10. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
“I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
2. 1917 (PR: 1)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. The Irishman (PR: 8)
8. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
9. Cats (PR: 9)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Richard Jewell
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
8. Cats (PR: 8)
9. Joker (PR: 10)
10. Judy (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Irishman
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
4. The Lion King (PR: 3)
5. The Aeronauts (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
7. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
8. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 9)
9. Aladdin (PR: Not Ranked)
10. 1917 (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Dumbo
And that equates to the following features obtaining these numbers come nomination time:
10 Nominations
The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
1917
7 Nominations
Little Women, Marriage Story
5 Nominations
Joker, Parasite
4 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Bombshell, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Ad Astra, Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Pain and Glory
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Aeronauts, American Factory, And Then We Danced, Apollo 11, Beanpole, Cats, The Cave, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, One Child Nation, Toy Story 4, Weathering with You
3. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
4. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
5. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
8. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
9. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 8)
10. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Todd Phillips, Joker
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 6)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
5. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 8)
7. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 5)
8. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)
9. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 3)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 2)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 7)
9. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 9)
10. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Helen Mirren, The Good Liar
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
8. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
9. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 10)
10. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 8)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
4. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 5)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 8)
7. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 6)
8. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: Not Rankled)
9. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 7)
10. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
John Lithgow, Bombshell
Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 2)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bombshell (PR: 5)
7. Booksmart (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Waves (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
10. Honey Boy (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
1917
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 4)
4. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 5)
7. Just Mercy (PR: 7)
8. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Hustlers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Judy
Dark Waters
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Atlantics (PR: 7)
5. Beanpole (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Monos (PR: 4)
7. And Then We Danced (PR: 6)
8. A White, White Day (PR: 9)
9. Those Who Remained (PR: 8)
10. Papicha (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tel Aviv on Fire
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 5)
5. Weathering with You (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Abominable (PR: 8)
7. Missing Link (PR: 7)
8. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 6)
9. Klaus (PR: 9)
10. Spies in Disguise (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Funan
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. One Child Nation (PR: 2)
3. The Cave (PR: 5)
4. Maiden (PR: 3)
5. Apollo 11 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 6)
7. Honeyland (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Knock Down the House (PR: 7)
9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sea of Shadows (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
For Sama
Diego Maradona
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. The Lighthouse (PR: 5)
5. Joker (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 4)
8. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
9. Parasite (PR: 7)
10. Marriage Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Downton Abbey (PR: 4)
3. Rocketman (PR: 5)
4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 2)
5. Little Women (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Judy (PR: 6)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)
9. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dumbo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cats
Aladdin
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. Parasite (PR: 5)
5. Marriage Story (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. 1917 (PR: 4)
7. Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
9. Joker (PR: 9)
10. Avengers: Endgame (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rocketman
Knives Out
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Judy (PR: 3)
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
5. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 10)
8. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)
9. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Us (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cats
The Aeronauts
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 4)
4. 1917 (PR: 5)
5. Parasite (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 3)
7. Cats (PR: 7)
8. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
9. Joker (PR: 10)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: 8)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 6)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: 7)
10. Ad Astra (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Waves
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 4)
4. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 3)
5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 6)
7. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “I’m Standing With You” from Breakthrough (PR: 5)
9. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4
“One Little Soldier” from Bombshell
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 2)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
8. The Irishman (PR: 7)
9. Cats (PR: 9)
10. Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 3)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 9)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
8. Cats (PR: 10)
9. The Irishman (PR: 7)
10. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Judy
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 2)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 1)
3. The Lion King (PR: 4)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
5. The Aeronauts (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
7. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
8. 1917 (PR: 9)
9. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 6)
10. Dumbo (PR: 10)
And that all equates to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
Marriage Story
7 Nominations
1917, Little Women
6 Nominations
Parasite
4 Nominations
Bombshell, Joker, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Ford v Ferrari, Rocketman
2 Nominations
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, Harriet, Jojo Rabbit, Judy, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Pain and Glory
1 Nomination
Ad Astra, The Aeronauts, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Beanpole, Cats, The Cave, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, Maiden, One Child Nation, The Report, Toy Story 4, Weathering with You
My weekly Oscar predictions this Thursday brings a whole lot of changes in that I’m including every category covering feature films! Additionally, there’s now only 15 listed possibilities in Best Picture and ten in all other races.
For this format, my projections show The Irishman garnering the most nominations with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917, and Marriage Story not far behind. Besides the cosmetic changes, here’s what else has transpired in the past seven days:
Bombshell, the true life of Fox News and the downfall of Roger Ailes, had its first industry screenings. The film immediately vaulted itself into contention in Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay (as well as Makeup & Hairstyling).
My inclusion of Bombshell in Best Picture means The Farewell has been taken out with The Two Popes and Joker as other on the bubble entries.
Not only does Charlize Theron’s work in Bombshell enter my Best Actress projections, but she comes in at #2. That drops Cynthia Erivo in Harriet out of the top five for the first time.
Margot Robbie’s performance in the picture puts her in and she bumps… Margot Robbie in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
In non Bombshell news, South Korean import Parasite had the best per screen average of 2019 in limited release. It’s the best reviewed movie of the year and its numbers game improves in Picture and Director this week.
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 6)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 3)
5. 1917 (PR: 4)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
7. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 9)
9. Bombshell (PR: 18)
10. Joker (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Farewell (PR: 8)
12. Little Women (PR: 12)
13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)
14. Waves (PR: 13)
15. Richard Jewell (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Pain and Glory
Judy
Just Mercy
A Hidden Life
Rocketman
The Report
Booksmart
The Good Liar
Dark Waters
Ad Astra
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 4)
3. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 3)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
8. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: 7)
9. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 13)
10. Jay Roach, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life
Todd Phillips, Joker
Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 5)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 8)
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 7)
9. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy
Ian McKellen, The Good Liar
Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters
Brad Pitt, Ad Astra
Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 7)
3. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 6)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 3)
8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)
10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Isabelle Huppert, Frankie
Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart
Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts
Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell
Julianne Moore, Gloria Bell
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
4. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
5. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 6)
7. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)
8. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 9)
9. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 13)
10. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Sterling K. Brown, Waves
Alan Alda, Marriage Story
Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy
Sam Rockwell, Jojo Rabbit
Zack Gottsagen, The Peanut Butter Falcon
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 12)
4. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 3)
5. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 6)
7. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
8. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 9)
9. Meryl Streep, Little Women (PR: 8)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Hudson, Cats
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dolemite Is My Name
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Little Women (PR: 6)
7. Just Mercy (PR: 8)
8. Judy (PR: 7)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
10. Richard Jewell (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Good Liar
Dark Waters
Hustlers
Toy Story 4
Luce
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Bombshell (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Waves (PR: 6)
7. 1917 (PR: 8)
8. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
9. Booksmart (PR: 9)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
The Report
Honey Boy
Dolemite Is My Name
Knives Out
Rocketman
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite
2. Pain and Glory
3. Atlantics
4. Les Miserables
5. Monos
Other Possibilities:
6. Those Who Remained
7. Beanpole
8. And Then We Danced
9. Papicha
10. The Traitor
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4
2. Frozen II
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
4. Missing Link
5. Weathering with You
Other Possibilities:
6. I Lost My Body
7. Abominable
8. Klaus
9. Funan
10. Okko’s Inn
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Apollo 11
2. American Factory
3. Maiden
4. One Child Nation
5. The Cave
Other Possibilities:
6. The Biggest Little Farm
7. The Edge of Democracy
8. Aquarela
9. Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story By Martin Scorsese
10. Knock Down the House
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917
2. The Irishman
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Parasite
5. The Lighthouse
OtherPossibilities:
6. Ad Astra
7. Ford v Ferrari
8. Marriage Story
9. Joker
10. Jojo Rabbit
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Predicted Nominees:
1. Downton Abbey
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Little Women
4. Dolemite Is My Name
5. Rocketman
OtherPossibilities:
6. Judy
7. The Irishman
8. Aladdin
9. 1917
10. Jojo Rabbit
BEST EDITING
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. 1917
4. Ford v Ferrari
5. Marriage Story
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite
7. Jojo Rabbit
8. Joker
9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
10. Ad Astra
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman
2. Bombshell
3. Judy
4. Dolemite Is My Name
5. Little Women
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8. The Aeronauts
9. Rocketman
10. Cats
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3. Little Women
4. Marriage Story
5. Jojo Rabbit
Other Possibilities:
6. The Aeronauts
7. Ford v Ferrari
8. A Hidden Life
9. Joker
10. Waves
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II
2. “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” from Rocketman
3. “Stand Up” from Harriet
4. “The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4
5. “Speechless” from Aladdin
Other Possibilities:
6. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4
7. “Spirit” from The Lion King
8. “One Little Soldier” from Bombshell
9. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn
10. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. 1917
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. The Irishman
5. Little Women
Other Possibilities:
6. Cats
7. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
8. Ford v Ferrari
9. Aladdin
10. Downton Abbey
BEST SOUND EDITING
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Rocketman
5. Avengers: Endgame
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra
7. The Irishman
8. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
9. Cats
10. The Lion King
BEST SOUND MIXING
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari
2. 1917
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Rocketman
5. Ad Astra
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Endgame
7. Cats
8. The Irishman
9. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
10. The Lion King
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3. Avengers: Endgame
4. The Lion King
5. Alita: Battle Angel
Other Possibilities:
6. The Aeronauts
7. Gemini Man
8. Ad Astra
9. 1917
10. Godzilla: King of the Monsters
So here’s I have the nominations playing out as far as numbers with each film:
10 Nominations
The Irishman
9 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
1917, Marriage Story
5 Nominations
Bombshell, Ford v Ferrari, Little Women, Parasite
4 Nominations
Jojo Rabbit, Rocketman, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
The Farewell, Joker
2 Nominations
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, Judy, Toy Story 4
1 Nomination
Ad Astra, Aladdin, Alita: Battle Angel, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, The Cave, Downton Abbey, Harriet, Hustlers, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Les Miserables, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Maiden, Missing Link, Monos, One Child Nation, Pain and Glory, The Report, Weathering with You
The Joker went wild at the box office over the weekend, easily setting the all-time October opening record. Let’s see how the rest of awards season plays out, but the film has now entered back into my predictions for Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay. In the big race, that knocks out A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, which made its inaugural appearance in the top ten last Thursday. In other developments:
In Actress, the five spot continues to change back and forth. For this week, Awkwafina is in with Alfre Woodard just outside.
In Supporting Actress, Laura Dern goes back to the #1 slot over Jennifer Lopez.
The other races remain the same with some positions jockeying around. So here’s the big announcement…
Next Thursday, I will be including all categories covering feature length films for the first time. The list of Picture possibilities will dwindle from 25 to 15 with all other races going down to ten. Stay tuned!!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 3)
4. 1917 (PR: 7)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 4)
6. Parasite (PR: 5
7. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
8. The Farewell (PR: 9)
9. The Two Popes (PR: 8)
10. Joker (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 10)
12. Little Women (PR: 12)
13. Waves (PR: 13)
14. Pain and Glory (PR: 15)
15. Richard Jewell (PR: 19)
16. Judy (PR: 17)
17. Just Mercy (PR: 14)
18. Bombshell (PR: 20)
19. A Hidden Life (PR: 16)
20. Rocketman (PR: 24)
21. The Report (PR: 21)
22. Booksmart (PR: 18)
23. The Good Liar (PR: Not Ranked)
24. Dark Waters (PR: 22)
25. Ad Astra (PR: 25)
Dropped Out:
Downton Abbey
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 5)
4. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 4)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: 12)
8. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
9. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 10)
10. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 8)
11. Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)
12. Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life (PR: 11)
13. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 9)
14. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Trey Edward Shults, Waves
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 5)
7. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 7)
8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)
10. Isabelle Huppert, Frankie (PR: 11)
11. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: 10)
12. Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts (PR: 14)
14. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 12)
15. Julianne Moore, Gloria Bell (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Kristin Stewart, Seberg
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 4)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
7. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 7)
8. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 8)
9. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: 10)
10. Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy (PR: 11)
11. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 12)
12. Ian McKellen, The Good Liar (PR: 13)
13. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters (PR: 14)
14. Brad Pitt, Ad Astra (PR: 9)
15. Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Matt Damon, Ford v Ferrari
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 1)
3. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 3)
4. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
5. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
8. Meryl Streep, Little Women (PR: 7)
9. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 9)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 11)
11. Jennifer Hudson, Cats (PR: 12)
12. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 13)
13. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 10)
14. Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory (PR: 14)
15. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 3)
3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 4)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 2)
5. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 8)
7. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 6)
8. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)
9. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 7)
10. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: 10)
11. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (PR: 11)
12. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 13)
13. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 12)
14. Sam Rockwell, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 14)
15. Zack Gottsagen, The Peanut Butter Falcon (PR: Not Ranked)
Going into this week’s predictions, there was no question that Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman would be the headline. The gangster epic premiered last Friday at the New York Film Festival to overwhelmingly glowing reviews. That reaction has propelled it to the #1 spot in Picture, Director, and kept it there in Adapted Screenplay.
Additionally, the festival greatly increased the chances for Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, and Joe Pesci to land nominations. De Niro makes an appearance in lead for the first time, pushing out Antonio Banderas. Pacino enters Supporting Actor, displacing Willem Dafoe. And Pesci rises to the #6 slot in that category.
Yet the movement this Thursday extends beyond Irishman. Renee Zellweger’s title performance in Judy is now #1 in Actress. In Supporting Actress, Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers vaults to first position.
In Picture, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood makes its inaugural showing in my top ten projections. That pushes out Little Women, as we await reaction for it.
Finally, it was revealed (fairly unsurprisingly) that Clint Eastwood’s Richard Jewell will be released in December for awards consideration. I have the film, Clint, Paul Walter Hauser, Kathy Bates, and its Adapted Screenplay mentioned as possibilities.
WINNER OF THE WEEK: The Irishman
LOSER OF THE WEEK: The Lighthouse
Let’s get to it!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 3)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
4. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
5. Parasite (PR: 6)
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)
7. 1917 (PR: 7)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 8)
9. The Farewell (PR: 10)
10. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker (PR: 12)
12. Little Women (PR: 9)
13. Waves (PR: 13)
14. Just Mercy (PR: 18)
15. Pain and Glory (PR: 14)
16. A Hidden Life (PR: 15)
17. Judy (PR: 23)
18. Booksmart (PR: 21)
19. Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Bombshell (PR: 16)
21. The Report (PR: 20)
22. Dark Waters (PR: 22)
23. Downton Abbey (PR: Not Ranked)
24. Rocketman (PR: 25)
25. Ad Astra (PR: 17)
Dropped Out:
The Lighthouse
Knives Out
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 2)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
3. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 4)
4. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)
5. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
8. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 8)
9. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 10)
10. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 9)
11. Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life (PR: 11)
12. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: 12)
13. Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 14)
14. Trey Edward Shults, Waves (PR: 13)
15. Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Todd Phillips, Joker
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
4. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 4)
7. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
8. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)
9. Brad Pitt, Ad Astra (PR: 9)
10. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy (PR: 11)
12. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
13. Ian McKellen, The Good Liar (PR: 13)
14. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters (PR: 12)
15. Matt Damon, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse
Daniel Kaluuya, Queen and Slim
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 2)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)
7. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 8)
8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)
9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)
10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: 10)
11. Isabelle Huppert, Frankie (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 13)
13. Julianne Moore, Gloria Bell (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts (PR: 12)
15. Kristen Stewart, Seberg (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Lesley Manville, Ordinary Love
Jessie Buckley, Wild Rose
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 3)
2. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 2)
4. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
5. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. Meryl Streep, Little Women (PR: 7)
8. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 11)
9. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 8)
10. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 12)
11. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Jennifer Hudson, Cats (PR: 9)
13. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 13)
14. Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Meryl Streep, The Laundromat
Anna Paquin, The Irishman
Octavia Spencer, Luce
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 2)
When it comes to Oscar prognosticating, it’s been a fairly quiet weekend without any festivals or particularly high profile screenings. Yet that’s bound to change tomorrow because The Irishman cometh.
Two months ahead of its Netflix debut, Martin Scorsese’s epic gangster drama with Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, and Joe Pesci will open the New York Film Festival. There are a few notable Academy hopefuls that haven’t screened like 1917, Bombshell, Little Women, and Dark Waters. Mr. Scorsese’s latest is the most eagerly awaited and we will know its potential Oscar viability in just a few hours (expect my individual post for it no later than Saturday).
So as we await that verdict, there were some developments in the past week:
I have moved Christian Bale from lead actor to supporting and that means he’s in for the first time, replacing Jamie Foxx.
Awkwafina gets the Best Actress #5 spot over Alfre Woodard.
The Two Popes has shifted to Adapted Screenplay and that takes Joker out.
The misfortune for Joker continues as I’ve moved it out of my top ten Picture projections in favor of The Farewell.
With Popes removed from Original Screenplay, Waves takes its slot.
WINNER OF THE WEEK: The Farewell
LOSER OF THE WEEK: Joker
Let’s get to it!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
6. Parasite (PR: 5)
7. 1917 (PR: 6)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 10)
10. The Farewell (PR: 13)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)
12. Joker (PR: 9)
13. Waves (PR: 12)
14. Pain and Glory (PR: 18)
15. A Hidden Life (PR: 15)
16. Bombshell (PR: 16)
17. Ad Astra (PR: 23)
18. Just Mercy (PR: 14)
19. The Lighthouse (PR: 17)
20. The Report (PR: 21)
21. Booksmart (PR: 19)
22. Dark Waters (PR: 20)
23. Judy (Not Ranked)
24. Rocketman (PR: 24)
25. Knives Out (PR: 22)
Dropped Out:
The Good Liar
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 3)
3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 4)
4. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
5. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
8. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 8)
9. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 9)
10. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 10)
11. Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life (PR: 12)
12. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: 14)
13. Trey Edward Shults, Waves (PR: 15)
14. Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)
15. James Gray, Ad Astra (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Todd Phillips, Joker
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 2)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 4)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 3)
5. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 6)
7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
8. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 7)
9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 10)
10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: 11)
11. Lesley Manville, Ordinary Love (PR: 9)
12. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts (PR: 12)
13. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 13)
14. Kristen Stewart, Seberg (PR: 14)
15. Jessie Buckley, Wild Rose (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Elle Fanning, Teen Spirit
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 6)
7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 9)
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
9. Brad Pitt, Ad Astra (PR: 13)
10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
11. Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy (PR: 12)
12. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters (PR: 14)
13. Ian McKellen, The Good Liar (PR: 11)
14. Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse (PR: 15)
15. Daniel Kaluuya, Queen and Slim (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (moved to Supporting)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 2)
3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
5. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)
OtherPossibilities:
6. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 6)
7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 5)
8. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: 7)
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
10. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 9)
11. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (PR: 10)
12. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 11)
13. Tracy Letts, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 13)
14. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 12)
15. Chris Evans, Knives Out (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Jamie Bell, Rocketman
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 2)
3. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 3)
4. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
OtherPossibilities:
6. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
7. Meryl Streep, Little Women (PR: 6)
8. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 8)
9. Jennifer Hudson, Cats (PR: 12)
10. Meryl Streep, The Laundromat (PR: 11)
11. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 9)
13. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Anna Paquin, The Irishman (PR: 13)
15. Octavia Spencer, Luce (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory
Anne Hathaway, Dark Waters
Ana de Armas, Knives Out
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original)
It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are updated! Some events from over the last week:
By Friday next week, The Irishman will have screened and we will know how much of a contender it truly is. I’ve held it as a placeholder in first since I started my projections a month ago. I’m shaking it up a bit and sliding the picture and Martin Scorsese to third. That means Marriage Story takes over in slot one for Pic and Quentin Tarantino is first for direction.
Winning the Audience Award at the Toronto Film Festival, Jojo Rabbit got just the shot in the arm it needed after mixed reviews. 10 of the past 11 Toronto recipients have nabbed a Best Picture nod. So it’s back in my mix. It replaces Waves.
In Director, Sam Mendes is back in with James Mangold out.
No changes to the top five in Best Actor. . In Actress and Supporting Actress – same story as even 1-5 rankings remain consistent.
In Supporting Actor, it’s Willem Dafoe returning to the predictions over Sterling K. Brown.
The five Adapted Screenplays haven’t changed while in Original, it’s The Farewell over Waves.
WINNER OF THE WEEK: Jojo Rabbit
LOSER OF THE WEEK: Waves
Let’s get to it!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 1)
4. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)
5. Parasite (PR: 6)
6. 1917 (PR: 10)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 14)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 4)
9. Joker (PR: 8)
10. Little Women (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)
12. Waves (PR: 9)
13. The Farewell (PR:12)
14. Just Mercy (PR: 13)
15. A Hidden Life (PR: 19)
16. Bombshell (PR: 18)
17. The Lighthouse (PR: 20)
18. Pain and Glory (PR: 16)
19. Booksmart (PR: 22)
20. Dark Waters (PR: 17)
21. The Report (PR: 15)
22. Knives Out (PR: 21)
23. Ad Astra (PR: 25)
24. Rocketman (PR: 24)
25. The Good Liar (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Queen and Slim
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Noah Baumbach, MarriageStory (PR: 3)
3. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
4. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 4)
5. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)
7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 13)
8. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 7)
9. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 9)
10. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 8)
11. Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)
12. Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life (PR: 12)
13. Todd Phillips, Joker (Not Ranked)
14. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: 15)
15. Trey Edward Shults, Waves (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Todd Haynes, Dark Waters
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 3)
3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 2)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
5. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 6)
7. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
9. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 9)
10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 13)
11. Ian McKellen, The Good Liar (PR: 11)
12. Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy (PR: 10)
13. Brad Pitt, Ad Astra (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters (PR: 12)
15. Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Kaluuya, Queen and Slim
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 2)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 3)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 4)
5. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 7)
8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
9. Lesley Manville, Ordinary Love (PR: 10)
10. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)
11. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: 11)
12. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts (PR: 14)
13. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 12)
14. Kristen Stewart, Seberg (PR: 13)
15. Elle Fanning, Teen Spirit (PR: 15)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 2)
3. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 3)
4. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Meryl Streep, Little Women (PR: 8)
7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 6)
9. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 9)
10. Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory (PR: 10)
11. Meryl Streep, The Laundromat (PR: 7)
12. Jennifer Hudson, Cats (PR: 11)
13. Anna Paquin, The Irishman (PR: 13)
14. Anne Hathaway, Dark Waters (PR: 12)
15. Ana de Armas, Knives Out (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Renee Elise Goldsberry, Waves
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 2)
Well, a lot has certainly transpired on the Oscar prognostication front in the past week! Most notably would be the Toronto Film Festival and as usual, it helped some pictures and performers and threw shade on the hopes of others.
For blog followers, you’ve seen a whole bunch of Oscar Watch posts over the last few days. Various rankings in the eight major categories have shifted as we arrive at today’s predictions with some newcomers hitting predicted territory.
Let’s go through some highlights:
One of the more unexpected events from up north was the love for Hustlers, out tomorrow. The attention was particularly centered on the performance of Jennifer Lopez. She goes from unranked all the way to #3 in Supporting Actress.
TheTwoPopes is gathering more admirers as it plays the circuit. I now have it #4 in my BP derby (up five spots). This could change, but I think it’s one of a handful of pics that could win top prize.
Joker surprised many by emerging victorious for the Golden Lion at Venice. It now enters the fray as a predicted nominee in BP and Adapted Screenplay, in addition to Joaquin Phoenix.
Like Popes, Waves is also making a festival splash and it enters my projected BP recipients in ninth.
My projections in the lead acting categories remains the same ten, albeit with some jockeying from last week to this one.
In Supporting Actor, lots of movement. Tom Hanks was heralded for his portrayal of Mister Rogers in Toronto for Marielle Heller’s ABeautifulDayintheNeighborhood. I also have Sterling K. Brown in Waves pulling a J-Lo and going from not ranked to nominee. And Jamie Foxx in JustMercy is drawing acclaim so he joins the shortlist. They replace Willem Dafoe, Al Pacino, and Taika Waititi in a crowded field.
Speaking of Waititi, JojoRabbit was met with wildly divergent opinions in Toronto. I now have it only receiving an Adapted Screenplay nod, but expect its journey to Oscar attention or no attention to be an ongoing story.
Harriet seemed to be a bit of a Toronto disappointment. While I’m still listing Cynthia Erivo’s work as the title character in Actress, the movie itself has dropped completely out of my top 25.
There is no doubt that the badly reviewed TheGoldfinch has seen its Academy dreams totally vanish.
Keep reading on to see how I have everything shaking out at the moment and I’ll have updates forecasts next Thursday!
