Tag: Sundance Film Festival

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    Oscar Predictions – The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist

    Following its Sundance premiere in January, The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist is in actual theaters this weekend. Daniel Roher, who made the 2022 Oscar winning documentary Navalny, co-directs with Charlie Tyrell. Per the title, the Focus Features pickup centers on a hot button issue and should generate a fair amount of attention for its genre.

    Whether that translates to any awards focus is a trickier question. While Rotten Tomatoes is at an optimistic 88%, the 57 Metacritic is more glass half empty. The Academy’s branch of doc voters often don’t go with the highest profile titles and the mixed critical reaction can’t help much. That said, I’m sure its distributor will attempt to keep it visible months down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    Oscar Predictions: The Weight

    Ethan Hawke, fresh off his third acting Oscar nod for Blue Moon, headlines the 1930s set survival drama The Weight. Directed by Padraic McKinley and scheduled for domestic release in September, it premiered at the Sundance Film Festival and has also played Berlin. Costars include Julia Jones, Austin Amelio, and Russell Crowe.

    Plenty of reviews are praising this as an old-fashioned yarn with 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. The 70 on Metacritic is more indicative of positive write-ups expressing some reservations. A lot of the kudos are going to Hawke’s performance.

    Indie outlet Vertical picked up distribution rights. This is not a company who’ve successfully played much in the awards campaigning space. They’ll need to up their game for Hawke to be in contention for a back-to-back nomination. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Train Dreams

    As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

    It begins with the ten Best Picture contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the final film in BP and that’s Clint Bentley’s Train Dreams. If you missed my posts covering the previous nominees, you can find them here:

    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Hamnet
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Marty Supreme
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of One Battle After Another
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of The Secret Agent
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Sentimental Value
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Sinners

    The Case for Train Dreams:

    Since premiering at Sundance over a year ago, the period drama has been seen an awards player. In addition to the BP nod, it’s up for Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Original Song. Precursor BP nominations for the Netflix release include the Globes and PGA.

    The Case Against Train Dreams:

    Note the noms it didn’t get including directing and or any mentions for its cast (Joel Edgerton, Felicity Jones, or William H. Macy). BAFTA almost completely ignored it where it received a sole cinematography nom and it was blanked at SAG Actor.

    The Verdict:

    Of the two Netflix entries up in the biggest race, Dreams is below Frankenstein as far as victory chances and Frankenstein is definitely not going to win.

    My Case Of posts will continue with the first Best Actress write-up and that’s Jessie Buckley in Hamnet…

    Oscar Predictions: Wicker

    Olivia Colman headlines the irreverent and vulgarly romantic Sundance premiere Wicker from co-directors Alex Huston Fischer and Eleanor Wilson. As a Fisherwoman who builds herself a wooden boyfriend, the supporting cast includes Alexander Skarsgård (as said BF), Peter Dinklage, and Elizbeth Debicki.

    Currently seeking distribution, Rotten Tomatoes is at 93% with 68 on Metacritic for the bawdy concoction. Three-time nominee and one-time winner Colman (for The Favourite) will probably assist in easily securing a release deal. Oscar attention will be harder to achieve though I do wonder if the Globes could bite in their Musical or Comedy competitions if a legit campaign is mounted. If nothing else, the BAFTAs are a possibility (maybe remote dependent on competition) for Colman. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    Oscar Predictions: The Invite

    A remake of the 2020 Spanish comedy The People Upstairs, Olivia Wilde’s third directorial feature The Invite has screened at the Sundance Film Festival. The four-hander’s cast consists of Wilde, Seth Rogen, Edward Norton, and Penélope Cruz.

    Early word-of-mouth suggests a distributor should snatch this up quickly. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 93% with Metacritic at 74. Wilde has a double dose of raunchy material playing in Park City with I Want Your Sex also debuting. The Invite is nabbing slightly stronger reviews. The reaction is closer to Wilde’s behind the camera debut Booksmart rather than her sophomore effort Don’t Worry Darling. It may not translate to Oscar attention. However, with the right campaign and studio/streamer behind it, the Globes could take notice courtesy of their Musical or Comedy competitions. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    Oscar Predictions: I Want Your Sex

    Gregg Araki’s I Want Your Sex does not chronicle the making of George Michael’s nearly 40-year-old pop hit. Premiering at Sundance, the explicit comedy stars Olivia Wilde and Cooper Hoffman as an unconventional couple with Mason Gooding, Chase Sui Wonders, Daveed Diggs, and Charlie XCX in the supporting cast.

    Early word-of-mouth suggests the romp (seeking distribution) has some positive attributes but may appeal only to a niche crowd. Rotten Tomatoes stands at 85% with Metacritic at 63. It’s safe to assume this won’t be in awards contention. Olivia Wilde’s directorial effort (The Invite) which is also screening in Park City might be another story and you can expect that write-up on the blog in short order. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    Oscar Predictions: Josephine

    The Sundance Film Festival is underway this weekend for the final time in Park City before it moves to Boulder in 2027. This is also the first Sundance since the passing of its legendary founder Robert Redford. In particular, Sundance is a major indicator of the documentaries that will be in eventual Oscar contention. At the 2025 fest, all five just nominated docs played there. Also last year, BP nominee Train Dreams got its first exposure as did Rose Byrne’s nominated Best Actress turn in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.

    You can expect a few Sundance related prediction posts to pop up in the coming days, but we’ll start with Josephine. The drama marks the second film for auteur Beth de Araújo (behind 2022’s Soft & Quiet) and it incorporates a traumatizing incident involving sexual violence that the filmmaker experienced at a young age. Gemma Chan, Channing Tatum, and Philip Ettinger lead the cast and early word-of-mouth is very complimentary to them.

    Yet the loudest praise is going to eight-year-old Mason Reeves in her title role cinematic debut. The raves for Josephine and the girl playing her is already an indication of potential awards attention down the line. Reeves might be a shoo-in at the Critics Choice Awards for Best Young Actor/Actress. A distributor is likely to snatch up rights quickly. One question is whether the tough subject matter will be a hindrance. The first reviews out of Utah suggest it could be in the mix for Picture, some acting nods, and Original Screenplay with a deftly handled campaign. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    Oscar Predictions: Charlie the Wonderdog

    As we await nominations for the 98th Academy Awards on Thursday, my Oscar Prediction write-ups on contenders for the 99th are beginning to trickle in. This will pick up with the start of the Sundance Film Festival later this week.

    Over the weekend, the animated feature Charlie the Wonderdog debuted quietly with Owen Wilson voicing the superhero hound. Shea Wageman directs with a supporting behind the mic cast including Tabitha St. Germain, Sebastian Billingsley-Rodriguez, Anthony Bolognese, and Lindsay Gibson.

    Distributor Icon Creative Studio isn’t posting box office numbers at press time and the pic doesn’t even have a Wiki page. Rotten Tomatoes is at just 50%. In other words, if you’re starting to think of possibilities for Animated Feature a year from now, you would be barking up the wrong tree with Charlie. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    Oscar Predictions: Coexistence, My Ass!

    Coexistence, My Ass is one of the 15 shortlisted documentaries for the 98th Academy Awards as it tries to make the quintet after premiering at Sundance nearly a year ago. From filmmaker Amber Fares, it focuses on Israeli comedian and activist Noam Shuster-Eliassi’s one-woman show.

    With 92% on Rotten Tomatoes, Coexistence must coexist with numerous politically themed docs in the running and some are higher profile including 2000 Meters to Andrivka, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, and Apocalypse in the Tropics. The voting branch for this genre is unpredictable and any of the 15 contenders could get in. However, predicting this one in your projected five would be an upset selection. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…