Midway Box Office Prediction

Known for his mega budget disaster flicks such as Independence Day and The Day After Tomorrow, director Roland Emmerich tries his hand at a World War II epic next weekend with Midway. Budgeted at $75 million (pretty low considering the reported $165 million price tag for his 2016 dud sequel Independence Day: Resurgence), the cast includes Ed Skrein, Patrick Wilson, Luke Evans, Aaron Eckhart, Nick Jonas, Mandy Moore, Dennis Quaid, and Woody Harrelson.

I do not expect this to be Emmerich’s Saving Private Ryan or Dunkirk. Those WWII efforts had critical acclaim and Oscar buzz. This does not. There will be competition for the adult and action crowd with the debut of Doctor Sleep and second frame for Terminator: Dark Fate.

IMAX elevated pricing could help a bit, but I doubt it. My suspicion is that Midway posts middling to poor numbers in the low teens for an inauspicious start.

Midway opening weekend prediction: $13 million

For my Doctor Sleep prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/29/doctor-sleep-box-office-prediction/

For my Last Christmas prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/30/last-christmas-box-office-prediction/

For my Playing with Fire prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/31/playing-with-fire-box-office-prediction/

A Dog’s Journey Box Office Prediction

A Dog’s Journey finds its way to theaters next weekend and it comes without the controversy that greeted its predecessor. In 2017, A Dog’s Purpose got in some water when video surfaced of an animal being mistreated on set. The film managed to turn into a decent sized hit with an opening just north of $18 million and $64 eventual domestic gross. That’s enough to warrant a sequel and Journey is also based on a book by W. Bruce Cameron. Gail Mancuso takes over directorial duties from Lasse Hallstrom. Josh Gad is back voicing the lead canine and costars include Dennis Quaid, Marg Helgenberger, and Betty Gilpin.

I’m not confident that Journey will follow the same box office path as Purpose did with its high teens range. I do think it’ll manage to top 2019’s A Dog’s Way Home, which premiered to $11.2 million. A gross just under the teens seems like the right call.

A Dog’s Journey opening weekend prediction: $11.8 million

For my John Wick: Chapter 3Parabellum prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/07/john-wick-chapter-3-parabellum-box-office-prediction/

For my The Sun Is Also a Star prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/10/the-sun-is-also-a-star-box-office-prediction/

The Intruder Box Office Prediction

Home is apparently where the homicidal maniacs are when The Intruder debuts next weekend. The thriller casts Michael Ealy and Meagan Good are new homebuyers whose previous owner (Dennis Quaid) goes to deadly lengths to keep it. Deon Taylor, maker of Meet the Blacks and Traffik, directs.

The pic was originally slated for April 26, but set its date back a week when Avengers: Endgame snatched up that real estate. The Screen Gems release looks to serve as counter programming to the MCU behemoth’s sophomore weekend.

It could find some success in that regard, particularly with African-American audiences. Opening against the animated Uglydolls and comedy Long Shot, this has a legit shot at having the healthiest debut in the low to mid teens.

The Intruder opening weekend prediction: $15.2 million

For my UglyDolls prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/23/uglydolls-box-office-prediction/

For my Long Shot prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/24/long-shot-box-office-prediction/

Kin Box Office Prediction

Labor Day weekend brings the sci-fi pic Kin, which hopes to bring in a family and teen audience that have had plenty to see this summer. It’s not based on a YA novel, but it could pass as such an adaptation. That may not be great news as the genre seems to be dwindling.

Jonathan and Josh Baker direct with a cast including Jack Reynor, Myles Truitt, Zoe Kravitz, Carrie Coon, Dennis Quaid, and James Franco as a crime lord (the guy is certainly eclectic).

The Lionsgate release seems to be flying well under the radar and the Labor Day release date doesn’t inspire much confidence in its prospects. This is typically a slow time of year on the box office calendar and I’m getting a bit of a Darkest Minds vibe here.

That means I foresee a holiday debut in the mid single digits.

Kin opening weekend prediction: $3.9 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Searching prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/14/searching-box-office-prediction/

For my Operation Finale prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/21/operation-finale-box-office-prediction/

For my Ya Veremos prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/27/ya-veremos-box-office-prediction/

For my The Little Stranger prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/27/the-little-stranger-box-office-prediction/

I Can Only Imagine Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (03/14/18): I am revisiting my estimate considerably upwards to $5.4 million

Playing in theaters next weekend is the faith based drama I Can Only Imagine, which tells the story behind the making of the most popular Christian contemporary song of all time. The song shares the title of the film from the band MercyMe with J. Michael Finley as lead singer Bart Millard. Costars include Dennis Quaid, Cloris Leachman, and Trace Adkins. The directors are Andrew and Jon Erwin, makers of Woodlawn and MomsNight Out.

I’ve yet to see a theater count for Imagine, but I would guess it’ll be relatively low at about 1,000. This genre has shown the ability to over perform estimates. That said, this one seems to be generating rather meager buzz. The Erwin brothers have seen their previous two outings make about $4 million for their starts. I’ll predict Imagine doesn’t quite reach that number.

I Can Only Imagine opening weekend prediction: $5.4 million

For my Tomb Raider prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/06/tomb-raider-box-office-prediction/

For my Love, Simon prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/07/love-simon-box-office-prediction/

A Dog’s Purpose Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (Saturday, 01/21, 4:56pm): As mentioned below, I have decided to reconsider and revise my opening weekend prediction for A Dog’s Purpose due to the swirling controversy regarding it. I am revising down from $17.9 million to just $10.3 million now.

Blogger’s Update (Wednesday, 01/18, 6:24pm): The prediction below for A Dog’s Purpose was written prior to the Wednesday, January 18th allegations in the media involving animal mistreatment on set. Obviously, this story could alter my estimate and I will be monitoring the story as it progresses. I will keep my current projection for the time being, but it is likely to change. I will post further updates as needed.

A Dog’s Purpose is based on a very successful 2010 bestseller by W. Bruce Cameron and the film version hits theaters next weekend. Chronicling the existence of one of man’s best friends through various incarnations, Purpose comes from director Lasse Hallstrom, who was nominated for an Oscar over 30 years ago for Swedish pic My Life as a Dog (he also made The Cider House Rules and Chocolat). Human stars here include Britt Robertson, Dennis Quaid, Josh Gad, and Peggy Lipton (yep, the one from TV’s “The Mod Squad”!).

This adaptation could be rather successful in bringing in a female audience (and dog lovers for that matter). The well-known source material should help and I even think it will likely surpass the opening weekend of its main competitor, Resident Evil: The Final Chapter. 

I’ll estimate that Purpose reaches in the mid to high teens for a decent debut. That’s only about half of what Marley and Me made in 2008, but it’s still pretty doggone good.

A Dog’s Purpose opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million

**REVISED NUMBER BASED ON EVENTS

For my Resident Evil: The Final Chapter prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/18/resident-evil-the-final-chapter-box-office-prediction/

For my Gold prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/18/gold-box-office-prediction/

 

Truth Movie Review

James Vanderbilt’s Truth is of the genre that All the President’s Men is, even employing one of its stars, Robert Redford. It, too, tells the tale of a President of the United States under severe scrutiny. Both show the tremendous pressure and hard work of journalists and their duty to get the story right. The main difference among the numerous similarities? Whereas Redford’s 1976 Oscar nominated picture was confident enough to mostly eschew unneeded overdramatization, Truth is not. It’s a hindrance that causes it to pale in comparison.

Set against the backdrop of George W. Bush’s 2004 reelection, the film focuses on CBS News and its digging into the President’s three decades old plus National Guard record. Producer Mary Mapes (Cate Blanchett) works for 60 Minutes and is especially close to the network’s veteran news anchor Dan Rather (Redford). The pair and their colleagues believe they have a credible story covering lapses in Bush’s attendance in the Guard – a time when Vietnam was in its darkest days. A story is aired just months before the reelect, but potential inconsistencies rise up immediately. Some are from serious sources. Others come from the burgeoning blogosphere.

Truth explores the inner workings of news today, corporate politics, real politics, and journalistic integrity. These are subjects that have been covered before and covered more satisfactorily. I’ve already mentioned Redford’s classic from 40 years ago. There’s also Network. And Spotlight. The pic’s flaws don’t lie with the acting, even though this will not rate among Blanchett’s best performances. Redford gives a passable take on Rather. Their coworkers, including Topher Grace as a freelancer and Dennis Quaid as a military affairs expert, aren’t given any time for their characters to be anything other than caricatures.

Blanchett is a tremendous actress but there are times when even she seems to be overdoing it. Not as much as Truth itself, though. From its sweeping score to reaction shots of Mary’s young child watching her work in awe on the tube, Truth often seems distracted by its own perceived virtue instead of just sticking to the facts. The subject matter is by its nature fascinating and there are occasionally well dramatized touches here. Yet President’s Men and Spotlight were confident enough in their stories to simply tell them to intriguing results. Truth rather tries too hard and often rings false for it.

** (out of four)