January 21-23 Box Office Predictions

The trio of S sequels – Scream, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Sing 2 – should continue to dominate the box office charts despite the arrival of two newcomers this weekend. We have the historical romance Redeeming Love and long in the can fantasy adventure The King’s Daughter debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Redeeming Love Box Office Prediction

The King’s Daughter Box Office Prediction

The real drama could be for the #1 spot and that depends on how far Scream drops in its sophomore weekend and how well Spidey holds in its sixth. For some context, Scream 3 back in 2000 fell 53% in its second frame while 2011’s Scream 4 dip was steeper at 62%. With little competition, the fifth installment could see a drop more in part 3’s range, but it could also come close to 60%. No Way Home, if it descends in the mid 30s range, might give it a run for its money at the top. In fact, I’m giving the web slinger an ever so slight edge.

My projection of $2.4 million for Redeeming Love should mean a fourth place showing behind the fifth weekend for Sing 2. The five spot could go to The King’s Man, not the The King’s Daughter.

As mentioned, The King’s Daughter has been collecting dust on the shelf since the fifth year of the Obama administration (read my full post for all the details). I’m forecasting a measly $1 million and that should keep it outside the high five.

Here’s how I’m seeing the top five breaking down:

1. Spider-Man: No Way Home

Predicted Gross: $13 million

2. Scream

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

3. Sing 2

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

4. Redeeming Love

Predicted Gross: $2.4 million

5. The King’s Man

Predicted Gross: $1.6 million

Box Office Results (January 14-17)

The four-day MLK weekend knocked Spider-Man off his perch at #1 and delivered pleasing results for Scream. The well-reviewed fifth entry in the quarter century old series took in $33.8 million over the long frame, coming in a bit under my $36.4 million prediction. That’s good for the third best 3-day traditional start in the franchise after Scream 3 ($34 million) and Scream 2 ($32 million) as it made $30 million from Friday to Sunday.

After four weeks at #1, Spider-Man: No Way Home was second with $24.6 million, slightly ahead of my $22.7 million projection. The MCU juggernaut stands at $702 million and passed Black Panther to become the 4th highest domestic earner in history.

Sing 2 was third with $10.3 million (in range with my $9.4 million take) for $121 million overall.

The 355 was fourth in its sophomore outing with $2.7 million (I went with $3.1 million) for $8 million total.

The five spot belonged to The King’s Man at $2.6 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It’s made $29 million.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

January 14-17 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Note (01/13): On the eve of its premiere, I am upping the 4-day tally for Scream from $29.4 million to $36.4M

**Blogger’s Update (01/11) – GKIDS has announced that Belle will open Friday on approximately 1300 screens. I believe that’s enough that it could post a $3-4 million showing and place fourth. Update is reflected below.

Familiar faces from the quarter century old Scream team are back with some fresh ones as Scream, the fourth sequel to the 1996 original hits multiplexes over the long MLK weekend. The scare fest follow-up looks to dethrone Spider-Man from his four week reign atop the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Scream Box Office Prediction

My high 20s estimate for Scream should get it to #1. While Omicron concerns could hinder it, Spidey has certainly proved that familiar products can thrive. Horror pics have also proven to be sturdy at the box office in recent times. If anything, I could envision Scream managing to top $30 million but I’ll hedge a bit.

The four-day weekend could mean smallish dips for holdovers as Spider-Man should place second in the low to possibly 20s with Sing 2, The 355, and The King’s Man filling out the high five.

Keep in mind that these projections are for Friday-Monday and this is how I see it:

1. Scream

Predicted Gross: $36.4 million

2. Spider-Man: No Way Home

Predicted Gross: $22.7 million

3. Sing 2

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

4. Belle

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

5. The 355

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

Box Office Results (January 7-9)

The web slinger had no trouble staying in first as Spider-Man: No Way Home added $32.6 million to its coffers, a bit ahead of my $29.5 million prediction. The MCU phenomenon is up to $668 million and that places it 6th on the all-time domestic chart.

Sing 2 was once again the runner-up with $11.5 million, in line with my take of $11.9 million. The animated sequel crossed the century mark and stands at $108 million.

Spy thriller The 355 was 2022’s first wide release and, as expected, opened in third with $4.6 million. While nothing to brag about, it debuted in line with expectations and a smidge more than my $3.8 million forecast.

The King’s Man was fourth with $3.2 million compared to my $2.6 million projection. Total is $25 million.

American Underdog rounded out the top five with $2.3 million (I said $2.1 million) for $18 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

January 7-9 Box Office Predictions

2022 should look a lot like the final two weekends of 2021 at the box office with Spider-Man: No Way Home and Sing 2 easily in the top two positions.

There is only one newbie entering the marketplace – the female led spy thriller The 355 with Jessica Chastain, Lupita Nyong’o, and Penelope Cruz. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The 355 Box Office Prediction

My $3.8 million estimate doesn’t inspire much confidence in its potency and I’ve got it pegged for a third place showing.

Holdovers Spidey and Sing 2 should maintain their chart rankings with the former in mid 20s to possibly $30 million and the latter still above double digits and perhaps reaching low teens. The King’s Man and American Underdog, meanwhile, should round out the top five with both in the $2-3 million range.

Overall it’s a rather quiet frame as we await Scream hitting next weekend and this is how I see it:

1. Spider-Man: No Way Home

Predicted Gross: $29.5 million

2. Sing 2

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million

3. The 355

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

4. The King’s Man

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

5. American Underdog

Predicted Gross: $2.1 million

Box Office Results (December 31-January 2)

Spider-Man: No Way Home easily closed out 2021 and began 2022 in first place with $56 million, a bit ahead of my $52.5 million forecast. In three weeks, the MCU mega blockbuster is up to $613 million and that’s already good for 10th domestically all-time.

Sing 2 held the runner-up spot again with $20.1 million – in range with my $19.6 million estimate. The animated sequel has taken in $90 million during its two weeks and should join the century club in short order.

The King’s Man jumped from #4 to #3 with $4.5 million (an estimate since 20th Century Studios hasn’t released a final gross). I said $4.5 million (!) and it’s made $19 million in two weeks of action.

Fourth place belonged to American Underdog in its sophomore outing with $3.9 million, not matching my take of $5.7 million. Total is $14 million.

Finally, The Matrix Resurrections plunged a steep 64% in its second weekend with $3.8 million compared to my $4.8 million projection. The fourth entry in the sci-fi saga has downloaded a weak $30 million thus far.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The 355 Box Office Prediction

One thing is for certain – Simon Kinberg’s spy flick The 355 will be the highest grossing movie released in 2022. That’s, of course, because it will be the first and it will hold that title briefly since Scream comes out a week later. Coming out a year after its COVID delay, it marks the second directorial effort from Kinberg (who’s known primarily for his screenwriting). His first was the commercial and critical X-Men misfire Dark Phoenix. 

Jessica Chastain, Lupita Nyong’o, Penelope Cruz, Diane Kruger, Fan Bingbing, Sebastian Stan, and Edgar Ramirez make up the cast. Two of them (Chastain from The Eyes of Tammy Faye and Cruz in Parallel Mothers) may find themselves competing against each other for Best Actress at this year’s Oscars.

January is often seen as a dumping ground for material that isn’t expected to make waves at multiplexes. The 355 is slated to be available for streaming on Peacock 45 days after its cinematic debut.

I don’t see this posting impressive numbers and I would certainly be surprised if it manages to top $10 million. It may be lucky to reach even $5 million.

The 355 opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million