While Ridley Scott hasn’t had a major Oscar player in over a decade (2015’s The Martian), three out of his last five features have received at least one nomination. Christopher Plummer was up in Supporting Actor for 2017’s All the Money in the World, 2021’s House of Gucci got a nod in Makeup & Hairstyling, and 2023’s Napoleon scored three mentions (Costume Design, Production Design, Visual Effects). 2021’s The Last Duel and 2024’s Gladiator II went empty-handed even though both were considered possibilities in some acting and tech races.
His latest is The Dog Stars and the post-apocalyptic thriller is out this weekend. Jacob Elordi, Josh Brolin, Margaret Qualley, Allison Janney, Guy Pearce, and Benedict Wong fill out the cast. It is expected to struggle at the box office and critical reaction is weak. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 45% with Metacritic at 51. While Scott’s previous pics have at least contended or been in contention for awards, Dog won’t be expected to pop up anywhere. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Adapting Peter Heller’s 2012 novel, the post-apocalyptic tale The Dog Stars arrives in theaters August 28th. Still going strong at age 88, Ridley Scott directs a cast led by Jacob Elordi, Josh Brolin, Margaret Qualley, Allison Janney, Guy Pearce, and Benedict Wong.
Originally slated for March, Stars hits multiplexes at a sleepier box office time with summer winding down. Sporting a reported budget north of $100 million, profitability could be a challenge for 20th Century Studios production. I can’t imagine this getting over $15 million out of the gate.
I suspect this may not even reach double digits unless buzz picks up considerably in the coming days. I’ll put it in high single digits for a rough start.
The Dog Stars opening weekend prediction: $8.3 million
It’s not often that the seventh feature in a franchise is considered to be the strongest (sorry Diamonds Are Forever and Saw: The Final Chapter). However, plenty of critics are claiming that to be the case for Minions & Monsters. Out today and prepared to rule the Fourth of July holiday weekend, this is Illumination Entertainment’s latest entry in their blockbuster animated comedic adventures. Pierre Coffin directs and voices the adorable little yellow creatures once again. Familiar faces providing behind the mic contributions include Trey Parker, Allison Janney, Christoph Waltz, Jesse Eisenberg, Jeff Bridges, Zoey Deutch, and Bobby Moynihan.
This is the third feature with the Minions moniker after the 2015 original and 2022 sequel Minions: The Rise of Gru. The series got started sixteen summers ago with Despicable Me and its three follow-ups. An ode to Hollywood in the 1920s, Monsters stands at 90% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s the freshest RT score of the septet, topping Despicable Me‘s 80% and well ahead of Minions (55%) and Rise of Gru (70%). The 67 Metacritic lags only behind the first Despicable at 72.
The franchise’s Oscar track record got off to a promising start and then leveled off. In 2010, Despicable Me landed a Best Animated Feature nod. In 2013, the sequel was up in that race and also for the inescapable ditty “Happy” from Pharrell Williams in Original Song. None of those nominations resulted in victories and the four pics since haven’t received any recognition.
Monsters has the potential to change that with its better than expected reviews. A Best Animated Feature slot in the quintet is not out of the question. That said, competition is a factor. I’d put it behind Disney’s Hoppers and Toy Story 5 and upcoming releases like Wildwood, Ray Gunn, and Tangles are anticipated to contend. Time will tell if there’s room for the Minions and it might be an uphill battle. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Looking to set off fireworks over the long holiday weekend, Minions & Monsters attacks multiplexes on July 1st. The seventh overall feature in the Despicable Me/Minions sagas, the animated comedy finds creator Pierre Coffin directing and voicing the beloved animated yellow creatures. The Illumination Entertainment production also features vocal contributions from Allison Janney, Christoph Waltz, Jeff Bridges, Jesse Eisenberg, Zoey Deutch, Bobby Moynihan, and Trey Parker.
A prequel set in the 1920s (nearly a half century before 2015’s Minions), Monsters should stay the course for a remarkably durable franchise. Early critical response is thumbing up as kids and parents should turn out in droves. That said, the seventh offering (behind four Despicable Me entries and two Minions flicks) is unlikely to threaten series best figures. There’s also Toy Story 5 in its third outing and it should still be performing well.
Illumination has made it a habit to open these pics in the 4th of July corridor or a tad later in the month. Minions hold the highest overall 3-day debut at $115 million right after the holiday. 2022’s Minions: The Rise of Gru opened on July 1 with a three-day take of $107 million. For this one, a Wednesday beginning is occurring. The Fourth of July is landing on a Saturday. Based on historical precedence, that should mean a dip in earnings on that date since plenty of families will be preoccupied with the 250th celebration. It also means the Wednesday and Thursday numbers should play like a traditional weekend date.
I’ll project a mid 60s gross from Friday to Sunday while it gets above nine digits for the five-day.
Minions & Monsters opening weekend prediction: $66.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $106.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Critics are not generally not showering The Roses with praise ahead of its release over Labor Day weekend. Remaking Danny DeVito’s 1989 dark comedy (itself based on a 1981 novel), Jay Roach directs Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Colman as feuding spouses. Costars include Andy Samberg, Kate McKinnon, and Allison Janney.
Plenty of reviews say the leads elevate the material. However, Rotten Tomatoes stands at 64% with Metacritic at 59. That’s certainly in the average range and should put it outside of Oscar consideration. I wouldn’t discount the Golden Globes. That’s where the original Roses scored noms in Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical and in Actor and Actress in the same genre for Michael Douglas and Kathleen Turner. Fun fact: it lost all three to Driving Miss Daisy and its headliners Morgan Freeman and Jessica Tandy.
Depending on the level of competition, Cumberbatch and (especially) Colman could sneak into their Globe competitions. Best Motion Picture might be out of reach. My Oscar (and in this case, Globe) prediction posts will continue…
Remaking Danny DeVito’s dark comedy The War of the Roses 36 years after its release, Jay Roach (the Austin Powers trilogy, Meet the Parents, Meet the Fockers) directs The Roses. Out August 29th, Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Colman headline as the divorcing title couple played by Michael Douglas and Kathleen Turner in 1989. Andy Samberg, Kate McKinnon, and Allison Janney costar.
The Searchlight release faces a thorny release date in the waning summer dog days. Early social word-of-mouth is encouraging. It stands a decent shot at having the highest debut over Labor Day weekend over Caught Stealing and the re-release of Jaws for its 50th anniversary.
That still might only mean higher single digits over its four-day holiday premiere.
The Roses opening weekend prediction: $7.9 million (Friday to Monday projection)
Out this weekend after a Tribeca Film Festival premiere days ago, Jon S. Baird (Stan & Ollie, Tetris) helms the family dramedy Everything’s Going to Be Great. Focused on a clan of regional theater players, Allison Janney and Bryan Cranston are the parents in this coming-of-age tale costarring Benjamin Evan Ainsworth, Jack Champion, Simon Rex, and Chris Cooper.
According to several critics, everything in Everything‘s is not great. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 50% with Metacritic at 49. Despite the presence of Academy recipients like Janney and Cooper and a nominee in Cranston, this will not be a contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Creator, out Friday, marks the first feature from Gareth Edwards since Rogue One: A Star Wars Story from 2016. The sci-fi thriller with John David Washington is said to be a visual feast. Reviews themselves are mostly on the plus side with an 82% Rotten Tomatoes score.
When Dune: Part Two was pushed back to 2024, the easy frontrunner for Visual Effects went with it. Now the VE competition is far more open with hopefuls like Oppenheimer and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (hoping to be the MCU’s first winner) in the mix.
It’s a strong possibility that The Creator is too. If so, it would mark the filmmaker’s second nod in a row for VE (Rogue lost to The Jungle Book seven years back). That’s likely to be the only race where this contends. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
20th Century Studios is banking on audiences wishing to acquaint themselves with The Creator when it debuts September 29th. The sci-fi action flick is original IP from Godzilla (the 2014 version) and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story maker Gareth Edwards (the director co-scripted with Chris Weitz). Tenet lead John David Washington headlines with a supporting cast including Madeleine Yuna Voyles, Gemma Chan, Ken Watanabe, Sturgill Simpson, and Allison Janney.
Made for a reported $80 million, this represents a gamble from the studio. Mr. Washington (unlike his dad Denzel) is not yet a bankable force whose presence can open a movie. As mentioned, it doesn’t have the franchise familiarity of Edwards’s previous two titles.
The Creator will hope for decent grosses stateside and an impressive haul abroad. I question whether this takes in $20 million for its start and I’ll put it a bit under that mark.
The Creator opening weekend prediction: $17.9 million
We have reached 2017 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut? If you missed my write-ups centered on 2009-16, they are linked at the bottom of the post.
There were nine nominees for 2017’s competition. If there were 5, we know Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water would have made the quintet. It won BP along with Director, Original Score, and Production Design and received 13 nods total (easily the most of all).
Of the 8 remaining movies, here’s my thoughts on which half is in and which half and is out.
Call Me by Your Name
Luca Guadagnino’s coming-of-age romance was a critical darling that won Adapted Screenplay. It was also up for Actor (Timothee Chalamet) and Original Song. The Academy likely almost nominated Armie Hammer for Supporting Actor and are probably glad they snubbed him.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, but I struggled with this call. An argument could be made with the Adapted Screenplay victory. However, none of the other four nominees in this category were BP nominees (extraordinarily rare). Call could’ve heard its name up, but I have it sixth or seventh.
Darkest Hour
Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill was a recipe for a Best Actor win and it was up for Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling (another victory), and Costume Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Despite its admirable turn in the tech derbies, this was all about Oldman. The lack of directing, screenplay, and editing noms leave this out. This is the rare occurrence where I’m saying the Best Actor winner’s movie doesn’t get in the BP race.
Dunkirk
Christopher Nolan’s epic WWII tale earned 8 mentions (2nd behind Shape) and won 3 – both Sound races and Film Editing. Nolan also scored his first and only directing nod.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. I don’t think it’s 100% considering other contenders, but this probably had enough support and was generally considered Nolan’s strongest awards pic in his filmography.
Get Out
Jordan Peele’s heralded horror flick was a box office smash. Its other three nominations were Director, Actor (Daniel Kaluuya), and Original Screenplay where it beat out Shape of Water.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Like Dunkirk, not a guarantee but that screenplay statue (over the BP recipient and two other contenders) make me think so.
Lady Bird
Greta Gerwig’s coming-of-age dramedy nabbed 5 inclusions with Director, Actress (Saoirse Ronan), Supporting Actress (Laurie Metcalf), and Original Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Broken record… not a slam dunk considering it went 0 for 5. Yet it took the Golden Globe for Musical/Comedy (over Get Out) and was highly acclaimed.
Phantom Thread
Paul Thomas Anderson’s sartorial drama was an overachiever on nomination morning with six including Director, Actor (Daniel Day-Lewis), Supporting Actress (Lesley Manville), Score, and Costume Design (the sole win).
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, but I was tempted. It really did perform better than anticipated. I could also see it just missing considering the competition. It might have been sixth.
The Post
Steven Spielberg’s Watergate era drama received only one other nom for Meryl Streep in Actress.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No and this is by far the easiest projection. Spielberg’s magic probably got it in the mix, but I suspect it was ninth.
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
A player in 7 categories, Martin McDonagh’s pic took home Actress (Frances McDormand) and Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell). Woody Harrelson was also up for Supporting Actor in addition to Original Screenplay, Score, and Film Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes, even with McDonagh missing Director. If for no other reason, I can’t imagine the four acting winners having none of their movies up. That would be the case if you left this off considering Oldman’s Darkest Hour and I, Tonya (where Allison Janney took Supporting Actress) not being in the nine.
If you weren’t keeping score, here’s my projected 2017 five:
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