The Invitation Box Office Prediction

Sony is hoping that horror fans and perhaps a young female audience RSVP for The Invitation when it arrives in theaters August 26th. Taking influence from Bram Stoker’s Dracula novel, Jessica M. Thompson directs. Nathalie Emmanuel, best known for her appearances in the latest Fast and Furious installments, headlines. Costars include Thomas Doherty, Stephanie Corneliussen, Alana Boden, and Hugh Skinner.

Horror flicks have been a bright spot in the COVID era and that includes 2022 (Scream and The Black Phone for example). This one faces challenges. It’s not based on existing IP other than the loose vampire connection. Most importantly, the late August release date is generally seen as a dumping ground for studios.

The Invitation may be fortunate to reach double digits (though that could be good enough for a #1 opening). I’ll say it falls just under.

The Invitation opening weekend prediction: $9.1 million

For my Three Thousand Years of Longing prediction, click here:

Three Thousand Years of Longing Box Office Prediction

X Box Office Prediction

Set in 1979 and melding the genres of horror with adult filmmaking, Ti West’s is slated for spots in over 2000 theaters this weekend. The slasher pic (which premiered at South by Southwest days ago) stars Mia Goth, Jenna Ortega (just coming off Scream), Martin Henderson, Brittany Snow, Owen Campbell, and Scott Mescudi (aka Kid Cudi).

Reviews are sharp with a current 100% Rotten Tomatoes score. That said, I do believe its box office potential is limited. Unlike most recent horror titles, it’s not a sequel/remake/prequel/requel. While A24 materials often receives acclaim, they can struggle at multiplexes.

Despite the hefty screen count, I’ll project this struggles to reach $3 million.

opening weekend prediction: $2.9 million

For my Jujutsu Kaisen 0 prediction, click here:

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 Box Office Prediction

For my The Outfit prediction, click here:

The Outfit Box Office Prediction

Scream (2022) Review

Landline phones are looked upon by the new kids of Scream like they’re phonographs, but some things never change with this fourth sequel to the 1996 original. Unlike other horror franchises, I would say there hasn’t been a bad Scream follow-up nor has one come close to approaching the quality of the first. My reception for parts II-IV are fairly similar – passably entertaining and ultimately forgettable. Part V – call it Scream if you want but it’s Scream 5 – is no different and a tad more underwhelming since its new characters add little.

When the ’96 version of Scream came out, Wes Craven and screenwriter Kevin Williamson deftly satirized the slasher genre while also making a scary movie. It’s why Scary Movie four years later didn’t work for me – it was trying to parody something that had already cleverly done it. The rest of the Scream efforts have struggled with the mix as it continually invents new family connections to reveal new Ghostface killers.

In this Scream, Sam (Melissa Barrera) fled the town of Woodsboro five years ago. She makes a hasty return when her high school age sister Tara (Jenna Ortega) is attacked by the now iconic villain. With Sam’s boyfriend Richie (Jack Quaid) and Tara’s student clique as potential suspects, we soon see familiar faces besides Ghostface. Dewey (David Arquette) is divorced from Gale Weathers (Courtney Cox) and no longer the sheriff in town. He reluctantly accepts Sam’s offer to get involved. Sidney (Neve Campbell) has no desire for a hometown return but we know that won’t last.

Sam’s genealogy allows for some slightly more surprising cameos as we try to deduce who the killer(s) are this time around. Some of Tara’s schoolmates fill the Scream bingo card. There’s the Jock, the Movie Buff, and the Virgin. Some of the roles are given a modern update (one of the guys is given the potentially fatal shower scene).

Of course, these characters talk endlessly about sequels and reboots and “requels”. This was a pretty fresh concept a quarter century ago (even if Craven had mined similar territory in New Nightmare). Now there’s precious little more meta to mine. Like the sequels, there’s also the fact that this Scream just isn’t a very scary movie.

Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett take over the reigns as Craven passed in 2015. They clearly have reverence for the series and especially part one. That’s understandable. So did the other ones. Some of them landed their plot points with more precision (Scream 4 managed to have a decent killer reveal and fun third act). All of them were duller cuts and this one strains to properly explain its reason for being despite endless attempts.

** (out of four)

February 18-21 Box Office Predictions

The video game adaptation Uncharted with Tom Holland and Mark Wahlberg looks to rule the #1 spot over the four-day President’s Day weekend while Channing Tatum’s directorial debut Dog hopes for a solid second place showing. They’re the newbies coming on Friday and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:

Uncharted Box Office Prediction

Dog Box Office Prediction

While reviews are mixed (50% currently on Rotten Tomatoes) for Uncharted, it should easily take a commanding lead for the POTUS frame. My low to mid 30s take puts it at about two and half times the gross of Dog, which finds Mr. Tatum in his first starring role in nearly half a decade.

As for holdovers, the long weekend should allow for smallish drop-offs. We’ve seen that play out previously during the mid February time period. Death on the Nile, following its mediocre start, might flirt with staying in double digits (I have it just under) with Spider-Man: No Way Home (that other Holland pic), Marry Me, and Jackass Forever filling out the rest of the chart.

Here’s how I envision the top 6 and these are estimates over the Friday to Monday holiday:

1. Uncharted

Predicted Gross: $33.7 million

2. Dog

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

3. Death on the Nile

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

4. Spider-Man: No Way Home

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million

5. Marry Me

Predicted Gross: $6 million

6. Jackass Forever

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

Box Office Results (February 11-13)

As mentioned, Kenneth Branagh’s Death on the Nile (his follow-up to 2017’s Murder on the Orient Express) went a bit off the tracks with $12.8 million. That’s shy of my $14.3 million projection and it’s less than half of what Orient accomplished out of the gate.

Jackass Forever dropped to second with $8 million. The 65% drop was the largest of the five picture franchise and under my prediction of $11.3 million. The prankster sequel stands at $37 million after ten days.

Jennifer Lopez and Owen Wilson couldn’t get audiences to fall for them as Marry Me debuted in third with $7.9 million. That didn’t match my expectation of $11.2 million. Its simultaneous Peacock streaming start might have caused many couples to simply view from home.

Spider-Man: No Way Home was fourth with $7.5 million (I said $7.1 million) for $759 million overall. The MCU smash is just $1 million away from Avatar and becoming the third largest domestic earner of all-time (obviously it will hit that mark this week).

Liam Neeson’s latest revenge thriller Blacklight performed in line with his other COVID genre tales Honest Thief and The Marksman. The fifth place tally was $3.5 million, in range with my $3.8 million estimate.

Finally, Moonfall took a giant step down to #8 and fell 70% with $2.9 million in its sophomore outing (I was a little more generous with $3.5 million). Sing 2 and Scream managed to leap it for the sixth and seventh spots. The putrid gross is just $15 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 11-13 Box Office Predictions

It’s been pretty easy to predict each weekend’s #1 film for a while – a lot of Spidey, a one-week interruption by Scream, and Johnny Knoxville and his pranksters in Jackass Forever. That gets a little more complicated this time around as three new pics enter the marketplace: Kenneth Branagh’s Murder on the Orient Express follow-up Death on the Nile, the Jennifer Lopez/Owen Wilson musical rom com Marry Me, and the latest Liam Neeson revenge saga Blacklight. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio right here:

Death on the Nile Box Office Prediction

Marry Me Box Office Prediction

Blacklight Box Office Prediction

Let’s start with Blacklight. Had this Neeson led tale (his granddaughter gets taken in it) come out in February a decade ago, we might be having a different conversation. However, grosses for these genre exercises with the actor have dwindled over the past couple of years (see Honest Thief and The Marksman). Therefore my $3.8 million estimate puts it at the tail end of the top five.

Then there’s Marry Me. It’s shrewdly placed during Valentine’s Day weekend where couples could be searching out something to view on date night. They will have the opportunity to do so with Marry Me in the theater and on Peacock and that could eat into the earnings. I have it barely topping double digits, but will admit that it could over perform and even snatch the #1 spot.

Jackass Forever is the fifth feature in the 20-year-old franchise and the fifth to open at #1. Looking over previous sophomore frame dips for earlier pics, I was surprised at their low drops. For 2002’s Jackass: The Movie, it was 44%.  2006’s Jackass: Number Two fell 49% while 2010’s Jackass 3D was the steepest at 57% (it was coming off a massive $50 million premiere). Spinoff Bad Grandpa in 2013 only had a 37% decline. I’ll say Forever loses about 50% That could be good enough for anywhere from the 1-3 slot depending on how Nile and Marry pan out. There could be a photo finish for that two spot.

Murder on the Orient Express tracked a solid $28 million haul just over four years ago. Yet it didn’t leg out particularly well and I question whether audiences are truly excited for another dose of Hercule Poirot and his many suspects. I suspect it should still make around half of what its predecessor took in. That would get it to #1, but we’re in a situation where we could have three genuine contenders for the top spot.

Spider-Man should stay in the top five with Moonfall potentially dropping out. The Roland Emmerich disaster tale managed just a C+ Cinemascore grade to go with its weak opening. A sophomore fall in the 60% range appears likely.

It’s also worth noting that there’s a certain game between the Bengals and Rams taking place Sunday. We usually don’t see three high-profile releases on Super Bowl weekend and it’s fair to assume grosses will take a hit on that date.

Here’s how I see it shaking out for your top 6:

1. Death on the Nile

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

2. Jackass Forever

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million

3. Marry Me

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

4. Spider-Man: No Way Home

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

5. Blacklight

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

6. Moonfall

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

Box Office Results (February 4-6)

The Jackass franchise is five for five when it comes to opening #1 at the box office. Jackass Forever performed in line with estimates at $23.1 million, a touch ahead of my $21.8 million projection. It ranks fourth in terms of the quintet of debuts (just ahead of the original), but it’s certainly an impressive number given the circumstances.

As for Roland Emmerich’s disaster pic Moonfall… not so much. The big budget ($140 million) lunar saga cratered with only $9.8 million (I went higher with $12.8 million). As mentioned above, expect a precipitous drop in its sophomore frame.

Spider-Man: No Way Home was third with $9.5 million, swinging a bit above my $8.1 million take. The total has reached $748 million as it inches ever closer to 3rd domestically all-time (currently held by Avatar with $760 million).

Scream was fourth with $4.7 million (I said $4.4 million) and it’s scared up an overall tally of $68 million.

Sing 2 rounded out the top five with $4.2 million compared to my $3.6 million estimate. Total is $139 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 4-6 Box Office Predictions

February kicks off with two new entries that should place 1-2 on the charts. Johnny Knoxville and his pranksters return in Jackass Forever and the Roland Emmerich disaster pic Moonfall starring Halle Berry are the debuts and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Jackass Forever Box Office Prediction

Moonfall Box Office Prediction

It’s been years since we’ve seen a Jackass experience and I do question if younger viewers aren’t as familiar with the franchise. On the other hand, no film in the series (including 2013 spinoff Bad Grandpa) has opened below $20 million and I won’t predict that this will. My low 20s forecast easily puts it in first place.

As for Moonfall, I’ve got it premiering in the same range as 2017’s Geostorm and that’s in the lower double digits range. That should certainly be good for second, but is weak considering the reported $140 million price tag.

The trio of S sequels that have reigned supreme in the last couple of weeks – Spider-Man: No Way Home, Scream, Sing 2 – should all slide 2 spots and populate the rest of the top five.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Jackass Forever

Predicted Gross: $21.8 million

2. Moonfall

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

3. Spider-Man: No Way Home

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

4. Scream

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

5. Sing 2

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

Box Office Results (January 28-30)

In a weekend that saw no major releases, Spider-Man: No Way Home easily ruled for the sixth out of its seven weekends. The MCU sensation took in another $11 million, reaching a tad higher than my $10.3 million projection. It stands just $25 million away from overtaking Avatar as the third biggest domestic earner of all time.

Scream was in the runner-up position again and it held better than I anticipated. The horror sequel made $7.2 million in its third frame compared to my $5.5 million estimate and it’s grossed $62 million.

Sing 2 was third with $4.6 million, edging my $4.2 million take and it’s up to $134 million.

Redeeming Love was fourth in its sophomore outing with $1.7 million (I said $1.8 million) for $6 million overall.

The King’s Man rounded out the top five at $1.6 million (I went with $1.3 million). Tally is $33 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 28-30 Box Office Predictions

January should close out very quietly at the box office as we await more high profiles releases in February. There’s no newcomers this weekend as the trio of S sequels – Spider-Man: No Way Home, Scream, Sing 2 – should easily maintain the 1-2-3 positions. In fact, the top 5 is likely to remain unaltered with Redeeming Love in fourth and The King’s Man rounding out the top five.

I’m projecting drops in the 20s for Spidey, Sing and King’s while Scream and Love could lose around half of their previous haul.

Quite simply, not a whole lot to ponder this time around and here’s how I see the top 5 shaking out:

1. Spider-Man: No Way Home

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

2. Scream

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

3. Sing 2

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

4. Redeeming Love

Predicted Gross: $1.8 million

5. The King’s Man

Predicted Gross: $1.3 million

Box Office Results (January 21-23)

Two newcomers couldn’t make a dent in multiplexes as MCU’s behemoth took back the top spot from Ghostface. No Way Home made $14 million in its sixth frame, ending out my $13 million estimate. It’s up to $720 million and perched 4th all-time domestically.

Scream dropped to second with $12.2 million (in line with my $12.7 million projection) for $51 million in its two weeks. The 59% fall is similar to Scream 4‘s 62% sophomore dip.

Sing 2 was third with $5.7 million (I said $5.3 million) for a five-week tally of $128 million.

The historical romance Redeeming Love premiered in fourth with $3.5 million. That’s certainly unimpressive, but it did manage to exceed my $2.4 million prediction.

The King’s Man rounded out the top five with $1.7 million (I went with $1.6 million) for $31 million overall.

Last and least, the long delayed The King’s Daughter (featuring Pierce Brosnan and a mermaid) should have stayed on the shelf. The fantasy adventure debuted in 8th with $750,000. I thought it might make $1 million and my generosity clearly got the best of me.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 21-23 Box Office Predictions

The trio of S sequels – Scream, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Sing 2 – should continue to dominate the box office charts despite the arrival of two newcomers this weekend. We have the historical romance Redeeming Love and long in the can fantasy adventure The King’s Daughter debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Redeeming Love Box Office Prediction

The King’s Daughter Box Office Prediction

The real drama could be for the #1 spot and that depends on how far Scream drops in its sophomore weekend and how well Spidey holds in its sixth. For some context, Scream 3 back in 2000 fell 53% in its second frame while 2011’s Scream 4 dip was steeper at 62%. With little competition, the fifth installment could see a drop more in part 3’s range, but it could also come close to 60%. No Way Home, if it descends in the mid 30s range, might give it a run for its money at the top. In fact, I’m giving the web slinger an ever so slight edge.

My projection of $2.4 million for Redeeming Love should mean a fourth place showing behind the fifth weekend for Sing 2. The five spot could go to The King’s Man, not the The King’s Daughter.

As mentioned, The King’s Daughter has been collecting dust on the shelf since the fifth year of the Obama administration (read my full post for all the details). I’m forecasting a measly $1 million and that should keep it outside the high five.

Here’s how I’m seeing the top five breaking down:

1. Spider-Man: No Way Home

Predicted Gross: $13 million

2. Scream

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

3. Sing 2

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

4. Redeeming Love

Predicted Gross: $2.4 million

5. The King’s Man

Predicted Gross: $1.6 million

Box Office Results (January 14-17)

The four-day MLK weekend knocked Spider-Man off his perch at #1 and delivered pleasing results for Scream. The well-reviewed fifth entry in the quarter century old series took in $33.8 million over the long frame, coming in a bit under my $36.4 million prediction. That’s good for the third best 3-day traditional start in the franchise after Scream 3 ($34 million) and Scream 2 ($32 million) as it made $30 million from Friday to Sunday.

After four weeks at #1, Spider-Man: No Way Home was second with $24.6 million, slightly ahead of my $22.7 million projection. The MCU juggernaut stands at $702 million and passed Black Panther to become the 4th highest domestic earner in history.

Sing 2 was third with $10.3 million (in range with my $9.4 million take) for $121 million overall.

The 355 was fourth in its sophomore outing with $2.7 million (I went with $3.1 million) for $8 million total.

The five spot belonged to The King’s Man at $2.6 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It’s made $29 million.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

January 14-17 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Note (01/13): On the eve of its premiere, I am upping the 4-day tally for Scream from $29.4 million to $36.4M

**Blogger’s Update (01/11) – GKIDS has announced that Belle will open Friday on approximately 1300 screens. I believe that’s enough that it could post a $3-4 million showing and place fourth. Update is reflected below.

Familiar faces from the quarter century old Scream team are back with some fresh ones as Scream, the fourth sequel to the 1996 original hits multiplexes over the long MLK weekend. The scare fest follow-up looks to dethrone Spider-Man from his four week reign atop the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Scream Box Office Prediction

My high 20s estimate for Scream should get it to #1. While Omicron concerns could hinder it, Spidey has certainly proved that familiar products can thrive. Horror pics have also proven to be sturdy at the box office in recent times. If anything, I could envision Scream managing to top $30 million but I’ll hedge a bit.

The four-day weekend could mean smallish dips for holdovers as Spider-Man should place second in the low to possibly 20s with Sing 2, The 355, and The King’s Man filling out the high five.

Keep in mind that these projections are for Friday-Monday and this is how I see it:

1. Scream

Predicted Gross: $36.4 million

2. Spider-Man: No Way Home

Predicted Gross: $22.7 million

3. Sing 2

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

4. Belle

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

5. The 355

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

Box Office Results (January 7-9)

The web slinger had no trouble staying in first as Spider-Man: No Way Home added $32.6 million to its coffers, a bit ahead of my $29.5 million prediction. The MCU phenomenon is up to $668 million and that places it 6th on the all-time domestic chart.

Sing 2 was once again the runner-up with $11.5 million, in line with my take of $11.9 million. The animated sequel crossed the century mark and stands at $108 million.

Spy thriller The 355 was 2022’s first wide release and, as expected, opened in third with $4.6 million. While nothing to brag about, it debuted in line with expectations and a smidge more than my $3.8 million forecast.

The King’s Man was fourth with $3.2 million compared to my $2.6 million projection. Total is $25 million.

American Underdog rounded out the top five with $2.3 million (I said $2.1 million) for $18 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

Scream Box Office Prediction

**Blogger’s Note (01/13): On the eve of its premiere, I am upping the 4-day tally for Scream from $29.4 million to $36.4M

The fifth installment of the Scream franchise slashes its way into theaters on January 14th, hoping to bring in a sizable horror fan base. Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett, makers of V/H/S and Ready or Not, direct as they take reigns of the series from scare master Wes Craven (who helmed the first four and passed away in 2015). Neve Campbell, Courtney Cox, David Arquette, Marley Shelton, and Roger L. Jackson (as the iconic voice of Ghostface) reprise roles from previous entries. Newcomers include Melissa Barrera, Mason Gooding, Jenna Ortega, and Jack Quaid.

Nearly a quarter century ago, the low-budget original became a cultural phenomenon and revitalized the genre. Two sequels followed in quick succession in 1997 and 2000 while part 4 hit in 2011. It was a commercial disappointment – taking in only $38 million at the domestic box office (with a $19 million start).

Paramount and Dimension Films are hoping that nostalgia will bring audiences back to the fold. Fright fests, more than any other type of pic in 2021, proved immune to challenges faced in the COVID era in terms of solid openings. The third Conjuring and Candyman each premiered in the low to mid 20s range. Scream will have an extra day of earnings when factoring in the long MLK frame.

January is very desolate in terms of high profile debuts and Scream is by far the biggest one. It marks a major test for theaters as the Omicron variant sweeps across the country. If this fails to perform, don’t be surprised to see delays for upcoming releases. Even with that potential barrier and the underperformance of its predecessor, I envision this managing a mid to possibly late 20s haul when including Monday.

Scream opening weekend prediction: $36.4 million (Friday to Monday estimate)