Tag: Benny Safdie

Oscar Predictions: Marty Supreme

A couple of months back, Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine played the festival circuit prior to its release and saw its awards prospects tumble. Benny’s brother Josh (they made Good Time and Uncut Gems together among others) goes solo with Marty Supreme on Christmas Day. After a “surprise” showing at the New York Film Festival last month, the review embargo is lifted today. Unlike Machine, Marty should be a smash at the Oscars and elsewhere.

The 1950s set dramedy features Timothée Chalamet in the title role (as an ambitious ping pong star) with an eclectic supporting cast including Gwyneth Paltrow, Odessa A’Zion, Kevin O’Leary (of Shark Tank fame), Tyler Okonma (better known as Tyler, the Creator), Abel Ferrara, and Fran Drescher.

Early reaction from the Big Apple indicated this should be a major player at the Academy Awards and today’s critical reaction solidifies the buzz. Rotten Tomatoes is at 96% with 88 on Metacritic. Supreme has been perched in my top 5 possibilities for Best Picture throughout 2025 and that appears to be the right call. Like One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Sinners, and Sentimental Value – this is a BP prediction that you should feel comfortable writing in ink.

That same logic certainly applies to Chalamet in what many write-ups are calling career best work. He will turn 30 two days after Supreme‘s release, but he is going for nomination #3 after 2017’s Call Me by Your Name and last year’s A Complete Unknown. I’ve had him ranked 1st for months based on the notion that this seems like an awards friendly role. Chalamet was also the likely runner-up for Best Actor at the 97th ceremony when he fell short to Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. There is competition for the gold at the 98th production, especially from Battle‘s Leonardo DiCaprio and maybe Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon). Yet the third time could definitely be the charm for Mr. Supreme.

Supporting Actress is tough to pinpoint. A’Zion is being called the breakout performance while Paltrow is being heralded for a comeback role. All scenarios are possible as they could both get in or cancel each other out. It makes it trickier that there’s potential double nominees for Sentimental Value with Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass and perhaps Sinners with Wunmi Mosaku and Hailee Steinfeld. If only one makes the cut, I’m a bit stumped as where the edge lies. I’ve had Paltrow ranked slightly above A’Zion. Precursors should assist in offering clues. Right now my gut says both do not make the quintet and one of them does. I could flip a coin at the moment between them.

As for other above the line races, Safdie’s inclusion in Director isn’t automatic but the embargo lapse makes me more confident he gets in. Original Screenplay (from Safdie and Ronald Bronstein) shouldn’t be a problem.

There is a number of possibilities in tech competitions and it starts with the new Best Casting award which Supreme (with its unexpected roster choices) looks tailor made for. The pic also seems viable in Best Cinematography (from two-time nominee Darius Khondji), Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, and Production Design. A best case scenario could even include Sound though I suspect several rivals could close that door.

This means the A24 release could rack up a dozen nods under the rosiest projections with high single digits seemingly happening. Wins might be hard to come by in a number of them, but its lead has boosted his chances even more with a month left in the calendar year. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Smashing Machine Box Office Prediction

Dwayne Johnson seeks rock solid returns when The Smashing Machine enters the box office ring on October 3rd. Marking the solo directorial debut of Benny Safdie (brother Josh has his own with Marty Supreme in December), Johnson stars as MMA fighter Mark Kerr with Emily Blunt as his wife. The supporting cast includes Ryan Bader, Bas Rutten and Oleksandr Usyk (all from the real life fight world).

Seen as Johnson’s first legit bid for awards consideration, Machine debuted at Venice to mostly positive reviews (75% RT, 69 Metacritic). Steering away from broad based action and comedy (often set in jungles), A24 hopes the former wrestler’s latest plays well throughout October.

The MMA factor could help this get past my projection, but I don’t think the buzz is strong enough for this to reach $20 million. Even mid to high teens could be a challenge.

The Smashing Machine opening weekend prediction: $13.7 million

For my Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl prediction, click here:

Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl Box Office Prediction

For my Avatar: The Way of Water re-release prediction, click here:

Avatar: The Way of Water Re-Release Box Office Prediction

For my Good Boy prediction, click here:

Good Boy Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: The Smashing Machine

Prior to an October 3rd release from A24, sports biopic The Smashing Machine has been unveiled at Venice with Toronto up next. A passion project of Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, the former wrestler plays MMA fighter Mark Kerr in the solo directorial debut from Benny Safdie. Emily Blunt is Kerr’s wife with Ryan Bader, Bas Rutten, and Oleksandr Usyk providing support.

Usually front and center in franchise, action, or family fare (or a combo of them), Smashing has been circled as Johnson’s potential entry into the awards mix. Word-of-mouth from Italy confirms that with a 93% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 76 on Metacritic. Numerous reviews call it rather conventional and I doubt Best Picture, its direction, or the script will be up for consideration.

Johnson is a genuine threat to make the Best Actor quintet as is Emily Blunt for Supporting Actress. If she gets in, it would be her second nom in three years for that race behind 2023’s Oppenheimer. Since BP likely isn’t in the cards, it makes both of their inclusions questionable but achievable. The best bet might be Makeup and Hairstyling highlighting Johnson’s transformation for the role. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Oppenheimer

When it comes to Academy love for Christopher Nolan and his filmography, the magic number appears to be 8. That’s how many nominations happened for 2008’s The Dark Knight, 2010’s Inception, and 2017’s Dunkirk. The filmmaker looks to exceed that figure with Oppenheimer. The three-hour epic biopic starring Cillian Murphy as the father of the atomic bomb opens this weekend and the review embargo lapsed today. The massive supporting cast includes Emily Blunt, Matt Damon, Robert Downey Jr., Florence Pugh, Josh Hartnett, Casey Affleck, Rami Malek, Kenneth Branagh, and Benny Safdie (among others). Seriously when I say among others. As in, Gary Oldman plays Harry Truman and that’s far down on the Wiki list of familiar faces.

The Academy has a checkered history with Mr. Nolan. While The Dark Knight managed those eight mentions and won two, it famously missed Best Picture. Many believe the expansion to 10 features from five a year later was due to the Dark snub. Nolan himself has only been up for Best Director once with Dunkirk. His omission for Inception was a surprise. As far as actors who’ve competed in his works, that list consists of only one: Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight. He, of course, posthumously won.

Based on the critical reaction to Oppenheimer, Nolan’s record for nods may be broken and the acting list should expand. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 93% and while not all write-ups are raves, I believe enough are so that Best Picture and Director are likely happening. In fact, I see both of them occurring before an Adapted Screenplay spot (which could still materialize).

It’s no surprise that this should play in tech races. From Cinematography to Film Editing and Original Score and Production Design. Those might be givens as is Sound. Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and certainly Visual Effects are all feasible too.

If you’re keeping score, we’re already potentially above 8. Then there’s the performances. Murphy (obviously in lead) was assumed to be a surefire contender (his first at bat) and that’s bearing out. The bigger question was which supporting players would emerge. The answer it seems is Blunt and Downey Jr. For Blunt, it somehow would mark her first nomination. For Downey Jr., it would be the third – 31 years after Chaplin in lead and 15 years following Tropic Thunder in Supporting.

Bottom line: Oppenheimer appears positioned to be Nolan’s personal best showing at the big dance. It should be right up there with Killers of the Flower Moon and perhaps Dune: Part Two as far as numerical possibilities. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oppenheimer Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (07/19): I’ve increased my prediction from $52.3M to $65.3M

As one of the few directors whose name can open a movie, Christopher Nolan’s epic biopic Oppenheimer reaches theaters on July 21st. Cillian Murphy headlines the three-hour historical epic as the title character, known as the father of the atomic bomb. The large supporting cast includes Emily Blunt, Matt Damon, Robert Downey Jr., Florence Pugh, Josh Hartnett, Casey Affleck, Rami Malek, Kenneth Branagh, and Benny Safdie.

Shot for a reported $100 million, the Oscar hopeful is targeting a second place showing by outpacing the second frame of Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One. First place appears unreachable due to Barbie. The social media world has had a ball with memes and GIFs celebrating the premieres of these two huge projects on the same date. The term “Barbenheimer” has even been coined with thousands of moviegoers having already planned long days at the multiplex to view both.

Thanks in large part to his Dark Knight trilogy, Nolan serves as the biggest main draw for his own projects. He boasts a directorial bankability that few of his colleagues share (Tarantino is another example). Non-Batman projects have seen impressive starts. In 2010, Inception (hot on the heels of The Dark Knight) premiered with $62 million. Interstellar started with $47 million in 2014. Over Labor Day weekend in 2020, Tenet braved unfavorable COVID conditions and managed a $20 million beginning.

Oppenheimer faces its challenges. There’s obviously the competition from an iconic doll and Ethan Hunt. The subject matter may not be enticing to younger viewers who typically drive the summer box office. Still early indications including some sold out IMAX venues at considerably higher prices have me thinking it could top $50 million.

Oppenheimer opening weekend prediction: $65.3 million

For my Barbie prediction, click here:

Barbie Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret arrives in theaters on April 28th over 50 years after the novel by Judy Blume inspired generations of readers. Judging from the reviews, it sounds like it’s worth the wait (and Blume herself has heaped praise on it). The coming-of-age dramedy is directed and adapted by Kelly Fremon Craig, whose 2016 The Edge of Seventeen (something that was certainly inspired by Margaret) was a critical darling. Abby Ryder Fortson is in the title role with Rachel McAdams and Benny Safdie as her parents and Kathy Bates as Grandma.

The Rotten Tomatoes score is a sterling 95%. Some of the strongest ink is going to McAdams. With an aggressive campaign, perhaps Lionsgate could put her on the radar for her second Supporting Actress nomination after 2015’s Spotlight. Or the spotlight could fall to Margaret herself. I doubt if the Academy will bite, but Golden Globe voters nominated Hailee Steinfeld in Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy for Seventeen. I could see that happening with Fortson. A best case scenario would be attention for Adapted Screenplay, but let’s see how competitive that race becomes. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate is hoping audiences will be there for Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret when it opens April 28th. The coming-of-age dramedy is based on the well-known 1970 novel from Judy Blume. Kelly Fremon Craig, who wrote and directed 2016’s acclaimed The Edge of Seventeen, is behind the camera. Abby Ryder Fortson stars in the title role with Jennifer Garner, Benny Safdie, and Kathy Bates in the supporting cast.

Despite the popularity of its source material, author Blume held onto the film rights for over half a century. Margaret will attempt to bring in a wide female audiences whose familiarity with the book spans generations. Some early prognoses have this potentially reaching $20 million. I’ll say low to mid teens is where this lands.

Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret opening weekend prediction: $15.3 million

For my Big George Foreman prediction, click here:

Big George Foreman Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Stars at Noon

From acclaimed French titles like 1999’s Beau Travail to the recent Robert Pattinson horror pic High Life, filmmaker Claire Denis has her ardent admirers. Based on the 1986 novel by Denis Johnson, her latest is Stars at Noon. It has made its premiere at Cannes.

The romantic thriller features Margaret Qualley and Joe Alwyn in the lead roles with Danny Ramirez, Benny Safdie, and John C. Reilly providing support. The reviews are decent though not overwhelmingly positive and the Rotten Tomatoes rating is 78%.

I suspect the stars won’t align for this to receive any sort of significant awards push in the coming months. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Licorice Pizza Review

I’ve been grooving to the beat of Paul Thomas Anderson’s cinematic vibes for a quarter century. There was the magnificent Boogie Nights in 1997 and the iconic Daniel Day-Lewis milkshake monologue in There Will Be Blood ten years later. A decade after that, my PTA appetite was satiated by Phantom Thread. 

His latest is Licorice Pizza and it’s his most laid back experience. This coming-of-age slice of life takes place in the Valley circa 1973. It feels lived in and authentic and personal. There’s individual scenes where the filmmaker’s brilliance is on full display. Like all of his efforts, there’s memorable performances. And unlike most of his catalogue, this Almost Famous feeling flick has flaws I couldn’t overlook. It’s almost joyous and almost worth the viewing and ultimately more problematic than rewarding.

Loosely based on the teen years of former child actor Gary Goetzman (now a highly successful producing partner of Tom Hanks), Cooper Hoffman is 15-year-old Gary Valentine. He’s costarred in movies and commercials and is far more confident than anyone his age has a right to be. That self-assured nature is evident when he asks 25-year-old photographer’s assistant Alana Kane (Alana Haim) out on a date. She rebuffs his advances at first but ends up meeting him out. The two strike up a friendship and the benefit for us is watching Hoffman and Haim shine in their acting debuts. The son of Anderson’s late frequent collaborator Philip Seymour Hoffman and one third of a well-known rock band, Hoffman and Haim are naturals. The drawback is an age difference I couldn’t overlook… so let’s go there.

This is where the sunny tone of Pizza conflicted with their borderline (perhaps over borderline) inappropriate coupling. It’s not overtly sexual and Alana is well aware that hanging with the decade younger Gary is far from normal. Yet there’s enough of a leftover distasteful feeling that it hindered the entertainment value for me. One could argue Gary is more mature than Alana and perhaps that justifies some of what happens. That’s a tough needle to thread and I just couldn’t get there.

Pizza has a lazy hangout atmosphere that recalls Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Like that picture, it’s steeped in exploring a different showbiz era and the technical aspects we expect from PTA (production design, cinematography, costumes, and more) are top notch.

The episodic nature is hit or miss. Pizza‘s best course involves Bradley Cooper as hairdresser turned producer Jon Peters. His segment moves at a thrilling clip as Gary’s failing waterbed business and the 70s era gasoline shortage play important roles. I can’t say the same for Sean Penn’s bit as an aging movie star (based on William Holden) and his motorcycle exploits. By the time we arrive at Alana trying a new career as a campaign worker for conflicted mayoral candidate Joel Wachs (Benny Safdie), the pic was starting to run on fumes.

When a director of immense capabilities makes an almost misfire, there’s no denying it’s more of a letdown. That’s where I stand with Licorice Pizza and it brings me no joy to deliver that news.

**1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Licorice Pizza

When Paul Thomas Anderson writes and directs, the Academy takes notice and that won’t change with Licorice Pizza. Out in limited release November 26th before a Christmas Day expansion, the social media embargo is lapsed. Early word indicates the coming-of-age dramedy set in the Valley circa 1973 is one of the filmmaker’s most accessible and lighter works. And there are certainly categories where Oscar voters may bite.

Six out of the last seven PTA pictures have nabbed nominations. Two (There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread) contended for Best Picture and its maker made it both times for his direction. He has been nominated five times for screenwriting with the aforementioned titles as well as Boogie Nights, Magnolia, and Inherent Vice. Despite the multiple ballot appearances, PTA has yet to get his hands on a gold statue.

That could change here, but it’s no guarantee. I do believe the initial buzz suggests a Best Picture nod is likely and he could certainly be recognized for directing. I don’t foresee wins in either race.

Original Screenplay is a different story. Belfast is the main competition at the moment and that’s significant considering it’s the frontrunner for Picture. However, I could see a narrative developing where Anderson could emerge victorious partly as a career achievement/overdue honor.

Down the line recognition for Editing might be its strongest opportunity in tech derbies. For the actors, PTA’s filmography has resulted in nine nominations for its performers. There’s just one win with Daniel Day-Lewis  in Blood. Interestingly, we’ve seen three nominees each in Actor, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress. None for Best Actress, but that’s where Pizza has perhaps the most feasible chance.

Alana Haim’s performance is already getting raves. The downside is that Best Actress looks awfully competitive in 2021 and it could be an uphill battle. She’ll need some critics awards love and precursors. Same goes for Cooper Hoffman who makes his big screen debut. He’s the son of the late Philip, who PTA featured in Hard Eight, Boogie Nights, Magnolia, Punch-Drunk Love, and The Master. He too is being lauded though breaking into Actor could be an even taller order for him.

Finally, that brings us to Bradley Cooper. Playing film producer and Barbra Streisand’s former hairdresser Jon Peters, this looked like the kind of juicy role that might finally get the four-time acting contender some hardware. I’ve had Cooper listed at #1 in my Supporting Actor predictions since I began doing them over the summer (even in my updated estimates from earlier in the evening). It seems that Cooper’s screen time is quite limited in this… enough so that he might miss the dance altogether. One bright side is that Supporting Actor is so wide open that even his brief appearance could make enough of an impression on the Academy. I do suspect that Cooper will, at the least, not be in the top spot when I update next week.

Bottom line: the Pizza party at the Oscars could involve Picture, Director, and absolutely Original Screenplay. The cast faces some challenges. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…