When Paul Greengrass directed Tom Hanks seven years ago in Captain Phillips, the result was six Oscar nominations that included Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, and a supporting nod for newcomer Barkhad Abdi. It was not nominated for Director or Hanks in Best Actor (something I still vehemently disagree with). With the release of their second collaboration on Christmas, the western drama News of the World, history could absolutely repeat itself.
The review embargo is up today and News is currently breaking at 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. While that’s a great rating, much of the critical reaction is not of the rave variety. However, this looks to be a feature that should appeal to older members of the Academy and that very well could be enough to nab it a Best Picture nomination. I suspect that when I update my Oscar predictions tomorrow on the blog, I will still have it listed in my estimated nine.
It’s been 20 years since the beloved Hanks scored his last Best Actor nod for Cast Away, though he was featured in last year’s Supporting Actor derby for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Like in 2013 when he was snubbed for Phillips, this year’s contest is likely too crowded for him to be included. Like with Abdi, on the other hand, there is a newcomer here that could garner attention. 12-year-old Helena Zengel is his costar and the fifth slot in Supporting Actress seems to be open. This is assuming that Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Olivia Colman (The Father), and Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman) make the cut and I currently am. Zengel, who critics are certainly praising, is a strong hopeful for #5.
Greengrass may struggle to make it in for his direction just as he did with Phillips. Adapted Screenplay (by the director and Luke Davies) seems more of a possibility. There’s also tech races where it stands a solid chance and this includes Original Score, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, and Sound. My feeling is that it will show up in most or all. In fact, I’ll go out on an early limb and say that News of the World will get the most 2020 Oscar nominations without winning any. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
And a new day has dawned on this blog of mine as the 2020 Oscar Predictions begin!
To put it mildly, this is a challenge in 2020. The obvious hindrance is the COVID-19 pandemic that has shut theaters down for the past nearly five months and prevented scores of titles from their release.
It doesn’t stop there. I always do my early prediction posts in the later part of August when significant film festivals are about to get underway. The coronavirus has altered that dynamic as well. The Toronto and Venice festivals will operate in a much different fashion with some releases getting remote screenings and you should expect quite a few Oscar Watch posts in the coming weeks. However, it’s not nearly the volume of previous years. I have chosen to push up these early prediction posts because… well, I don’t have much else to write about!
To add to the mayhem – we have understandably seen a year in which release dates are constantly changing. Some of the pictures mentioned here may not see the light of day by February 2021. That, by the way, is the month the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences have extended eligibility to for the upcoming ceremony. A good example: Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch (which has seen its date pushed back more than once) is now a TBD release. We’ve grown accustomed to that lately. For this reason, I am not including it in my inaugural round of predictions.
One potential beneficiary to all of this is Netflix. The streaming giant has loaded up on awards contenders for the season. Three of them in particular – David Fincher’s Mank, Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods, and Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7 – boasts multiple performers who could see their work recognized in this particular category. In fact, four of the five early predicted nominees here are for Netflix properties.
As with any other year, these first projections are done with another degree of uncertainty and that’s category placement. It is inevitable that some performances in the supporting field could move to lead and vice versa. These decisions will become clearer as time goes along and will certainly shift my predictions in the future. For instance, Delroy Lindo seems bound for a nod in Da 5 Bloods. The smart money is that he’ll be campaigned for in Best Actor, but it’s in the realm of possibility that he could be a Supporting Actor contender.
Looking back at my early 2019 predictions in this category nearly a year ago, only one of my five projected nominees got through the process. It was, however, the winner with Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. For context, I predict my top 5 and then list ten other possibilities. All four other eventual nominees (Tom Hanks in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Anthony Hopkins in The Two Popes, Al Pacino and Joe Pesci for The Irishman), were all listed as possibilities.
So… let’s get to it with my very speculative first look at which gentlemen could contend in the supporting field!
While not all the right notes are consistently played in Marielle Heller’s A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, it’s the performance of one beloved actor playing one beloved children’s show host that makes it worthwhile. The film isn’t as much about Mister Rogers as it is the feelings he gives people through his demeanor and work. Portrayed by Tom Hanks, it’s an impeccable casting choice to witness.
Neighborhood is set in 1998, as Mister Rogers is introduced to Lloyd Vogel (Matthew Rhys), Esquire. Not an attorney, but he’s a prolific writer for Esquire magazine. Lloyd, who lives in New York City with his wife (Susan Kelechi Watson) and infant son, typically deals with weighty issues in his journalistic articles and in his family life. He’s got a strained relationship with his father (Chris Cooper), who left Lloyd’s now deceased mother when he was a boy. When Lloyd attends his sister’s third wedding, the toxic father/son dynamic is on full display. The last thing the writer wants is a puff piece assignment and he believes he’s got one with a profile of the iconic Rogers.
Lloyd flies to Pittsburgh where the public access program is taped and thus begins a dialogue with Rogers that will far exceed his 400 word assignment. Esquire wants a short piece dealing with heroes while Lloyd wants to dig deeper. When Mister Rogers sees his profiler suffering, he chooses to dig deeper as well.
Inspired by a true story, there’s still a feeling that Lloyd’s daddy issues are far from new territory. Rhys’s performance is adequate, but a bit diminished next to an icon playing an icon. Those looking for an examination of the life of Rogers may come away disappointed. Luckily the solid documentary Won’t You Be My Neighbor? covers that ground. We do see the puppets, the sweater change, and most importantly, the warmth that the host effortlessly exuded. The script deserves some credit for not falling too far down a sentimental rabbit hole. In this story, Mister Rogers isn’t perfect, but he’s darn close.
That goes for Hanks. Sometimes the obvious casting decision is the correct one and here’s an example. We attribute some of the same qualities with the two-time Oscar winner. This is why sarcastic Twitter posts about Hanks being a nightmare in real life are met with immediate eye rolls or chuckles. Mister Rogers was a comfort to millions and watching Hanks play him feels the same.
And here we are! After one year plus of speculating about the Academy Awards ceremony that will air this Sunday evening, we arrive at my final prediction posts on the winners!
For all 21 races encompassing feature-length films, I am giving you my analysis with my pick and the runner-up in case I’m wrong (which is bound to occur). A broad overview includes these thoughts:
There are undeniable strong front-runners in all four acting categories – so much so that even picking a runner-up is a challenge. If anyone other than my quartet wins, it’ll constitute an upset.
This is not the case in the other major races and that includes Picture and Director and both screenplay categories.
Other matchups are practical coin tosses and that includes Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Production Design, and Visual Effects.
I’m going to begin with the tech races and build up from there. So let’s get to it!
Best Cinematography
The Nominees: The Irishman, Joker, The Lighthouse, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Analysis: We start with a relatively easy one as the work of Roger Deakins in 1917 appears to have this in the bag. Anything else would be a surprise, but Hollywood could potentially challenge.
PREDICTED WINNER: 1917
Runner-Up: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Costume Design
The Nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Analysis: Here’s another one where Hollywood could get it, but I will predict voters go back a bit further to the stylings of Little Women (for what could definitely be its sole victory).
PREDICTED WINNER: LITTLE WOMEN
Runner-Up: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Film Editing
The Nominees: Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Parasite
Analysis: Both The Irishman and Parasite are possibilities here, but I believe Ferrari has the upper hand (for what could be its sole victory).
PREDICTED WINNER: FORD V FERRARI
Runner-Up: Parasite
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Nominees: Bombshell, Joker, Judy, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, 1917
Analysis: Bombshell appears to be the sturdy favorite here. And like a broken record, this likely stands as its only win. Joker or Judy would be the upset contenders.
PREDICTED WINNER: BOMBSHELL
Runner-Up: Joker
Best Original Score
The Nominees: Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Analysis: Thomas Newman (1917) has been nominated numerous times without a victory and the consensus for a while is that he would finally get his due. However, Joker has pretty much swept the precursors.
PREDICTED WINNER: JOKER
Runner-Up: 1917
Best Original Song
The Nominees: “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4, “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” from Rocketman, “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough, “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II, “Stand Up” from Harriet
Analysis: It was a bit of a shocker that this stands as the only nod for Rocketman, which was expected to garner attention in Makeup and Hairstyling and the sound races. Yet the Academy is probably poised to get Sir Elton John up to the stage.
PREDICTED WINNER: “I’M GONNA LOVE ME AGAIN” FROM ROCKETMAN
Runner-Up: “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II
Best Production Design
The Nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
Analysis: Along with Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay, this race marks the best shot for Hollywood to nab an Oscar. Frankly, this is a fairly wide open category where there is a narrative for any of the nominees to take it. I’m going to pick Hollywood by a hair.
PREDICTED WINNER: ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
Runner-Up: Parasite
Best Sound Editing
The Nominees: Ford v Ferrari, Joker, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Analysis: In both Sound races, I feel it comes down to Ford v 1917. In each case, I’ll give it to 1917.
PREDICTED WINNER: 1917
Runner-Up: Ford v Ferrari
Best Sound Mixing
The Nominees: Ad Astra, Ford v Ferrari, Joker, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Analysis: See Sound Editing
PREDICTED WINNER: 1917
Runner-Up: Ford v Ferrari
Best Visual Effects
The Nominees: Avengers: Endgame, The Irishman, The Lion King, 1917, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Analysis: This is a tough one. Other than Skywalker, I feel any of the competitors could squeeze out a win. With 1917 picking up other tech races, I’ll give it the slight advantage. This wasn’t the case a month or two ago, but this might actually be the likeliest category for an Irishman Oscar.
PREDICTED WINNER: 1917
Runner-Up: The Irishman
Best Animated Feature
The Nominees: How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, I Lost My Body, Klaus, Missing Link, Toy Story 4
Analysis: This one has been all over the map. Klaus picked up some key precursors. Missing Link surprised everyone by taking the Golden Globe. The Academy could choose to honor the Dragon franchise as a whole. I Lost My Body has its ardent admirers. Ultimately I’m playing it safe and betting Pixar manages to top all of them, though I’m less confident than usual about that.
PREDICTED WINNER: TOY STORY 4
Runner-Up: Klaus
Best Documentary Feature
The Nominees: American Factory, The Cave, The Edge of Democracy, For Sama, Honeyland
Analysis: For Sama is a legit contender and Honeyland being nominated here and in International Feature Film (which it will not win) could mean something. American Factory, however, has held slight front runner status for some time. This is a coin flop, but we’ve seen surprises here before and I’ll lean towards that.
PREDICTED WINNER: FOR SAMA
Runner-Up: American Factory
Best International Feature Film
The Nominees: Corpus Christi, Honeyland, Les Miserables, Pain and Glory, Parasite
Analysis: Let’s not complicate this. It’s going to be Parasite.
PREDICTED WINNER: PARASITE
Runner-Up: I guess… Pain and Glory?
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, The Two Popes
Analysis: There is definitely a chance that Greta Gerwig for Little Women could take this, especially after her Oscar snub for directing. The precursor attention, on the other hand, has mainly gone to Jojo for what might be its solo award.
PREDICTED WINNER: JOJO RABBIT
Runner-Up: Little Women
Best Original Screenplay
The Nominees: Knives Out, Marriage Story, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
Analysis: Quentin could pick up his third statue here after Pulp Fiction and Django Unchained, but the Parasite love seems stronger.
PREDICTED WINNER: PARASITE
Runner-Up: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Analysis: With the Irishmen splitting votes and Pitt taking every significant precursor, this is an easy one.
PREDICTED WINNER: BRAD PITT, ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
Runner-Up: Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees: Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell). Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), Florence Pugh (Little Women), Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Analysis: Johansson being a double nominee is tough to ignore and I believe she’s got a slightly better shot here than in Actress. Her costar Dern, though, has swept the season.
PREDICTED WINNER: LAURA DERN, MARRIAGE STORY
Runner-Up: Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Best Actor
The Nominees: Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
Analysis: Here’s a race where there were about a dozen performances vying for five spots. At the end of the day, the competition was fun to witness but Phoenix has picked up all the hardware thus far and I don’t see that stopping on Sunday.
PREDICTED WINNER: JOAQUIN PHOENIX, JOKER
Runner-Up: Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Best Actress
The Nominees: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), Charlize Theron (Bombshell), Renee Zellweger (Judy)
Analysis: Zellweger could the most vulnerable of the favored quartet with Theron or Johansson in the wings. It would be foolish to bet against her based on what’s already happened.
PREDICTED WINNER: RENEE ZELLWEGER, JUDY
Runner-Up: Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Best Director
The Nominees: Bong Joon-Ho (Parasite), Sam Mendes (1917), Todd Phillips (Joker), Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Analysis: Even with heavyweights like Scorsese and Tarantino in the mix, this has come down to Joon-Ho vs. Mendes. And the latter has won the Golden Globe and the DGA (which has a steady track record of naming the winner here).
PREDICTED WINNER: SAM MENDES, 1917
Runner-Up: Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Best Picture
The Nominees: Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
Analysis: Ugh… OK. Let’s begin with this: the smart money is on 1917. It won the Golden Globe for Best Drama and the Critics Choice Award. Mendes took the DGA and I have him picked to win Director.
On the contrary – in the 2010s, we have seen a Picture/Director split 5 out of 9 times. No foreign language film has ever won the biggest prize of all. Last year, I (along with many others) predicted Roma would be the first to do so and it lost to Green Book.
That said, the affection for Parasite feels deeper than for Roma. I’ll make this pronouncement now… if Parasite loses Original Screenplay on Sunday night, you’ll pretty much know my prediction is wrong. Yet I’m rolling the dice here for a minor surprise and that’s why…
PREDICTED WINNER: PARASITE
Runner-Up: 1917
My predictions pan out to the following films winning these many Oscars:
5 Wins
1917
3 Wins
Parasite
2 Wins
Joker, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
1 Win
American Factory, Bombshell, Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Judy, Little Women, Marriage Story, Rocketman, Toy Story 4
These calls also mean every nominated Best Picture player will win an Oscar with the exception of The Irishman, which I’m estimating will go 0 for 10.
And that does it, folks! The speculation has ended and the ceremony is two days away. I’ll have a recap post on how I did Sunday night…
The Writers Guild of America held their awards ceremony this evening and it serves as a significant indicator for the direction Oscar voters might go for the Adapted and Original Screenplay categories.
In Original Screenplay, this race was looked at as a showdown between Marriage Story and Parasite. The other nominees (1917, Booksmart, Knives Out) weren’t much in contention. For awards followers, you might notice I didn’t say Quentin Tarantino’s script for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. There’s a reason as the filmmaker is not a member of the guild and therefore not eligible for recognition. In the 2010s, we’ve already seen that factor come into play once when his Django Unchained screenplay wasn’t listed (Zero Dark Thirty won instead). Quentin went on to Oscar victory.
This evening, it is Bong Joon-Ho and Han Jin-won taking the prize for Parasite. My feeling is that the recipient between that and Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story now has the upper hand to compete with Hollywood at the Academy ceremony next weekend. So it’s a good night for the Parasite team.
Adapted Screenplay was definitely one to watch. Two nominees – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Joker – were looked at as long shots at best. This one came down to The Irishman (Steve Zaillian), Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi), and Little Women (Greta Gerwig). That holds true for Oscar (the five nominees here match the Academy’s). Waititi is the victor for Rabbit. The film most negatively affected is The Irishman, as Adapted Screenplay looks to be its most viable chance for a major category pickup. The narrative lately is that Gerwig could win the Oscar, especially since she was snubbed for Director. Yet Waititi’s trophy tonight puts him in the soft front runner position.
Look for lots more Oscar coverage on the blog as we are eight days away from the event itself!
The Case of posts for the pictures, directors, and performers nominated for this year’s Oscars brings us to our first Supporting Actor player – Tom Hanks for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Let’s look at the pros and cons for the legendary actor:
The Case for Tom Hanks
Well, he’s Tom Hanks. His work as beloved TV host Mister Rogers in Neighborhood brings him his sixth Oscar nod. He famously won back to back for Best Adtor in the 1990s with Philadelphia and Forrest Gimp, in addition to being nominated for Big, Saving Private Ryan, and Cast Away. Hanks is one of the most recognizable and appreciated movie stars in the world. Voters just witnessed him giving a touching and funny lifetime achievement speech at the Golden Globes.
The Case Against Tom Hanks
You might be surprised to learn that his nomination from the Academy is his first in 19 years. He was bypassed for such performances as Road to Perdition, Charlie Wilson’s War, Captain Phillips (I’m still salty about that snub), Saving Mr. Banks, Bridge of Spies, Sully, and The Post. In other words, Oscar voters may feel the two gold statues on his mantle are sufficient. As for the picture itself, Hanks’s inclusion in Supporting Actor is the sole nomination as Neighborhood couldn’t break out anywhere else with the Academy. While he snagged Globe and SAG mentions, he lost both to Brad Pitt from Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
The Verdict
While it’s good to see Hanks back in the mix, all signs point to this award winding up in Pitt’s neighborhood this year.
Up Next in my Case of posts… Kathy Bates in Richard Jewell!
Another major Oscar precursor holds their ceremony this evening with the 26th Annual Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards. This particular show has definitely served as a massive indicator where the Academy might go with the acting winners. As for Best Picture, not so much.
So let’s get into it as I make my projections for what will happen tonight!
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
The Nominees: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Lupita Nyong’o (Us), Charlize Theron (Bombshell), Renee Zellweger (Judy)
Analysis: Nyong’o is the odd one out here as she didn’t nab an Oscar nomination. A win here by Johansson and Theron (both are possible) could set up a narrative as being Zellweger’s legit competition. Over the past decade, the SAG and Oscar winner have matched seven out of nine times. The outliers include last year when Glenn Close took the SAG for The Wife and Olivia Colman won the Academy Award for The Favourite. Tonight could also solidify Zellweger’s work as Judy Garland in the biopic. My suspicion is that it happens.
PREDICTED WINNER: RENEE ZELLWEGER
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
The Nominees: Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Taron Egerton (Rocketman), Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Analysis: A Best Actor derby where ten performers were vying for five spots means 2 men here didn’t make the Oscar cut: Bale and Egerton. Therefore, I see this as a three person showdown between DiCaprio, Driver, and Phoenix. The Oscar/SAG linkage here is significant as eight of the last nine victors went on to take the Academy Award. 2016 was the only exception when Denzel Washington got the SAG for Fences and Casey Affleck was the Oscar recipient for Manchester by the Sea.
Driver could be the larger threat, but this season is shaping up to be a sweep for Phoenix. That’s where the smart money is tonight.
PREDICTED WINNER: JOAQUIN PHOENIX
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
The Nominees: Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy), Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Analysis: There is a 7 for 9 SAG/Oscar match in this category this decade. Foxx didn’t get the Academy attention. Hanks is beloved, but his movie has underwhelmed elsewhere. Pacino and Pesci should split votes. And the narrative continues for Pitt to have a terrific awards season.
PREDICTED WINNER: BRAD PITT
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
The Nominees: Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), Nicole Kidman (Bombshell), Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Analysis: During the 2010s, there was an 8 for 8 SAG/Oscar match here from 2010-2017. Yet 2018 was the exception and a rather enormous one. Emily Blunt’s victory last year for A Quiet Place was a stunner since she had no Oscar nod. And the Academy’s winner (Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk) didn’t get a SAG nod.
Could this set up a situation where Lopez, snubbed by the Academy, could walk to the podium tonight? I’m tempted to make that upset pick. However, Dern is unquestionably the favorite and I just can’t bet against her.
PREDICTED WINNER: LAURA DERN
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Bombshell, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
Analysis: Now here is where it gets interesting! Unlike the individual acting races, there isn’t as much of a history with this category matching up with Oscar’s Best Picture. This decade it’s happened four out of nine times. For the 21st century, it’s nine out of nineteen times.
You don’t see 1917 listed here and with its Golden Globe Best Drama and PGA victories, it’s the soft front runner for Oscar. An omission here doesn’t mean much as the last two Academy BP recipients (The Shape of Water, Green Book) missed here. Other than Bombshell, the nominees here are all nominated for Best Picture. Any of them winning tonight could position that film as the main competitor to 1917. That said, I don’t discount Bombshell taking the prize this evening as it received the greatest number of SAG nods.
Parasite is the only nominee where none of its individual performers were nominated. You could argue that the voters simply saved for their votes for this race. Jojo has its hardcore fans. The Irishman boasts a trio of acting legends.
Ultimately, I’m leaning toward the sprawling cast of Hollywood. Yet I’ll freely admit that this category seems wide open.
PREDICTED WINNER: ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
And there you have it! I’ll have a post up recounting how I did and what it means for the Oscar race soon enough…
Well, folks, the Oscar nominations were out bright and early this morning. Per usual, there were some genuine surprises and omissions that will have Twitter buzzing right up until the ceremony February 9th.
Readers of the blog know that I spend months trying to put the puzzle together on who and what will be nominated. My results today? Out of the 109 predictions made, 88 of them came to fruition. In the eight biggest categories, there were four that I got all nominees correct… including Best Picture. Truth be told, I’m pretty pleased with my results!
Before we break it down race by race, some general comments. As for movies that had a disappointing wakeup call, there were numerous entries that had possibilities in the major categories and beyond. Those left on the cutting room floor include Booksmart, Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, Uncut Gems, and Us. Another movie barely left standing was Rocketman. I had it pegged for five nominations, but it managed just a single mention in Original Song.
For the films that did make it in, Joker scored the most nominations (somewhat of a surprise) with 11 followed by The Irishman, 1917, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood with 10 apiece.
With some of my analysis here, you’ll see strong indications on what my winner forecast might be. Expect that post to be up a couple of days before the ceremony.
And with that, let’s break it down!
Best Picture
The Nominees: Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
How I Did: 9/9 (!)
Analysis: For Oscar prognosticators, just getting the correct number of films that are nominated is an accomplishment. It can fluctuate anywhere between 5 and 10. Nine felt correct for some time and I’ve had these ones predicted for several weeks. As for a winner, I feel six of them have at least decent to strong shots. I’m nowhere near ready to crown a victor.
Best Director
The Nominees: Bong Joon-Ho (Parasite), Sam Mendes (1917), Todd Phillips (Joker), Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: It was Phillips riding the Joker wave over Greta Gerwig for Little Women. Like Picture, this race feels wide open and it could come down to Joon-Ho vs. Mendes.
Best Actor
The Nominees: Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: With so many contenders in the running, going 4 for 5 here feels like more of an accomplishment that naming the Best Pic nominees. It was Pryce getting a slot over Taron Egerton in Rocketman. Banderas and Pryce are first time nominees. It looks like Phoenix could sweep awards season and that gives him his first win.
Best Actress
The Nominees: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), Charlize Theron (Bombshell), Renee Zellweger (Judy)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Analysis: 100% here and like Best Actor, there’s a strong front runner with Zellweger. If so, she’d pick up her second statue after being named Supporting Actress for 2003’s Cold Mountain.
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Analysis: What a list of legends we have here! There’s some interesting tidbits to share. Every nominee here has won an Oscar. Yet it’s been some time since most were nominated – Pesci since 1990 for GoodFellas, Pacino since 1992 for his double nod with Scent of a Woman and Glengarry Glen Ross, Hopkins since 1997 (Amistad), and rather shockingly, Hanks… who has his first nomination since 2000 with Cast Away. Pitt, on the other hand, is the most recent nominee for his acting (2011’s Moneyball). However, he’s the only one of the five to never win the Oscar for his performances (he does have an Oscar for producing 2013’s 12 Years a Slave). Got all that? And here’s the last word on that… Pitt seems destined to join their company in February as a winner.
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees: Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell), Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), Florence Pugh (Little Women), Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: Now we get to the first genuine shocker and that’s Jennifer Lopez not being nominated for Hustlers. Bates takes her spot. Lopez was generally seen as close to a sure thing for recognition and I’ve had her listed at #2 behind Dern for weeks. This only helps Dern for her first podium walk.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, The Two Popes
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Analysis: This has looked like the final five for a while now and this could represent the best chance for a major win for The Irishman. That said, I wouldn’t count Jojo or Joker completely out.
Best Original Screenplay
The Nominees: Knives Out, Marriage Story, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: No love for The Farewell here with 1917 getting in. Tarantino is a soft favorite over Marriage Story and Parasite.
Best Internation Feature Film
The Nominees: Corpus Christi, Honeyland, Les Miserables, Pain and Glory, Parasite
How I Did: 3/5
Les Mis, Pain, and Parasite were automatics. The last two spots were tricky to forecast and I had Atlantics and Those Who Remained instead. Honeyland pulled off a notable achievement by being named here and in Documentary. Bottom line: this is the easiest race of them all to project. It’s going to be Parasite.
Best Animated Feature
The Nominees: How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, I Lost My Body, Klaus, Missing Link, Toy Story 4
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: Next big surprise as Disney’s Frozen II was frozen out with Klaus taking the spot. Toy Story 4 is the favorite, but I don’t discount the possibility of an upset here (with Dragon and Body as potential spoilers).
Best Documentary Feature
The Nominees: American Factory, The Cave, The Edge of Democracy, For Sama, Honeyland
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: The documentary branch is always unpredictable and that proved accurate this morning. Apollo 11 and One Child Nation were the two I had in over The Cave and The Edge of Democracy. Netflix’s American Factory (the first doc from Barack and Michelle Obama’s production company) appears to be the leader of the pack.
Best Cinematography
The Nominees: The Irishman, Joker, The Lighthouse, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: I had Ford v Ferrari over Lighthouse. This looks to be a win for 1917.
Best Costume Design
The Nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: Surprises here with Dolemite Is My Name and Rocketman being ignored in favor of The Irishman and Joker. I even thought the two I predicted had real shots at winning. This one could be between Women and Hollywood.
Best Film Editing
The Nominees: Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Parasite
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: Now this one is interesting! I had Hollywood in and not Jojo. Why is Editing important? Of any category at the Oscars, a nomination here means a lot to the eventual Best Picture winner. The last movie to win the big prize and not be nominated for Editing is 2014’s Birdman. And that’s really an asterisk since it was filmed in one long continuous shot (though the same basically holds true for 1917). Before that, the last Best Picture winner recipient to not score a nod here? You have to go all the way back to 1980’s Ordinary People. In other words, the snub for Hollywood here could mean something. Perhaps it will be an outlier. Yet I feel it’s key for ballot guessers to know that only two BP winners haven’t been recognized here in the past 40 years…
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Nominees: Bombshell, Joker, Judy, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, 1917
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: Hollywood and Rocketman out and Maleficent and 1917 in. Expect this to be the sole win for Bombshell.
Best Original Score
The Nominees: Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Analysis: Back to perfection! Joker has gotten the precursor love, but 1917 is a threat.
Best Original Song
The Nominees: “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4, “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman, “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough, “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II, “Stand Up” from Harriet
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: This category is a head scratcher. I had “Spirit” from The Lion King and “Glasgow” from Wild Rose in over the Toy Story and Breakthrough tracks. This should be a contest between Elton John’s Rocketman tune and the Frozen song. However, both films were significantly snubbed in other categories as mentioned above. The one thing I do know… this branch clearly loves tracks that begin with the letter I.
Best Production Design
The Nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: Had Little Women over Parasite. This could definitely be a W for Hollywood.
Best Sound Editing
The Nominees: Ford v Ferrari, Joker, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: Had Avengers: Endgame over Joker. In both sound races, this should be between Ford and 1917.
Best Sound Mixing
The Nominees: Ad Astra, Ford v Ferrari, Joker, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
How I Did: 3/5
Had Rocketman and Skywalker over Astra and Hollywood. See Sound Editing above.
Best Visual Effects
The Nominees: Avengers: Endgame, The Irishman, The Lion King, 1917, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Analysis: I’m glad this category is last alphabetically so I can end on a high note! I lean Lion King, but that could change.
And that does it for my nominations recap! As stated, expect winner predictions shortly before February 9th!
After months and months of speculation, dozens of blog posts, and constant shifting around, these are my final predictions for the 2019 Oscars. There’s been thousands of words written about the races so I’ll keep it simple here.
The nominations are out Monday. I’m picking nine pictures to get recognition (there can be anywhere from 5 to 10 and 8-9 is usually the sweet spot). For each category, I’m also naming an alternate and second alternate.
Lastly, you can be sure come Monday that I’ll have a recap up with reaction and my results. Here we go folks!
Best Picture
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
ALTERNATE – The Farewell
ALTERNATE 2 – Knives Out
Best Director
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ALTERNATE – Todd Phillips, Joker
ALTERNATE 2 – Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy
ALTERNATE – Awkwafina, The Farewell
ALTERNATE 2 – Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Best Actor
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
ALTERNATE – Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
ALTERNATE 2 – Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
ALTERNATE – Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell
ALTERNATE 2 – Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ALTERNATE – Song Kang-Ho, Parasite
ALTERNATE 2 – Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes
ALTERNATE – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
ALTERNATE 2 – Hustlers
Best Original Screenplay
The Farewell
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
ALTERNATE – 1917
ALTERNATE 2 – Uncut Gems
Best International Feature Film
Atlantics
Les Miserables
Pain and Glory
Parasite
Those Who Remained
ALTERNATE – Beanpole
ALTERNATE 2 – Honeyland
Best Animated Feature
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
ALTERNATE – Klaus
ALTERNATE 2 – Abominable
Best Documentary Feature
American Factory
Apollo 11
For Sama
Honeyland
One Child Nation
ALTERNATE – Midnight Family
ALTERNATE 2 – Maiden
Best Cinematography
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ALTERNATE – The Lighthouse
ALTERNATE 2 – Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Best Costume Design
Dolemite Is My Name
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman
ALTERNATE – Downton Abbey
ALTERNATE 2 – The Irishman
Best Film Editing
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
ALTERNATE – 1917
ALTERNATE 2 – Marriage Story
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman
ALTERNATE – Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
ALTERNATE 2 – Dolemite Is My Name
Best Production Design
1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ALTERNATE – Parasite
ALTERNATE 2 – Joker
Best Original Score
1917
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
ALTERNATE – Ford v Ferrari
ALTERNATE 2 – Jojo Rabbit
Best Original Song
“Glasgow” from Wild Rose
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman
“Into the Unknown” from Frozen II
“Spirit” from The Lion King
“Stand Up” from Harriet
ALTERNATE – “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough
ALTERNATE 2 – “A Glass of Soju” from Parasite
Best Sound Editing
1917
Avengers: Endgame
Ford v Ferrari
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
ALTERNATE – Joker
ALTERNATE 2 – Rocketman
Best Sound Mixing
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Rocketman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
ALTERNATE – Avengers: Endgame
ALTERNATE 2 – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Visual Effects
1917
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
ALTERNATE – Alita: Battle Angel
ALTERNATE 2 – Gemini Man
And that means my final tally for pictures getting the following number of nominations goes like this:
11 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
9 Nominations
The Irishman
8 Nominations
1917, Joker, Little Women
6 Nominations
Marriage Story
5 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Parasite, Rocketman
4 Nominations
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3 Nominations
Bombshell
2 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lion King, Pain and Glory, The Two Popes
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, American Factory Apollo 11, Atlantics, Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, For Sama, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Knives Out, Les Miserables, Missing Link, One Child Nation, Those Who Remained, Toy Story 4, Wild Rose
On a packed awards precursors day that included DGA and PGA announcements, our compadres overseas put out their nominations as well. The British Academy Film Awards (or BAFTAs) went wild for Joker, which led all contenders with 11 nods. The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood were close behind with 10 and 1917 achieved 9.
The BAFTAs are an often decent harbinger of what follows at the Oscars. In the acting races, they’re often good for 3 or 4 of the eventual contenders stateside. Let’s take a look at the top six races with a little analysis.
Best Picture
The Nominees: 1917, The Irishman, Joker, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
No real surprises here. If anything, this is another sign that Marriage Story isn’t a real contender to win Best Picture at the Oscars. Yet that’s kind of been the general consensus for a little while.
Best Director
The Nominees: Bong Joon-Ho (Parasite), Sam Mendes (1917), Todd Phillips (Joker), Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
A 5 for 5 match with Picture. Other than Phillips, the other four were pretty much automatic nominees. Phillips gets the slot over Greta Gerwig (Little Women), Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story), and today’s surprise DGA player Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit).
Best Actor
The Nominees: Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Taron Egerton (Rocketman), Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
The ultra competitive Best Actor derby continues. Phoenix has to be considered the favorite after his Golden Globes victory and Joker leading the way with nods. It’s another good showing for Egerton after his Globes podium walk. Pryce gets in over Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory) and Robert De Niro in The Irishman. The latter’s exclusion should be noted. De Niro didn’t get a Globe, SAG, or BAFTA nod. For those picking him to get recognition from the Academy, actors left out of all three very rarely make the cut.
Best Actress
The Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Wild Rose), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), Charlize Theron (Bombshell), Renee Zellweger (Judy)
Buckley being named is a genuine surprise. She’s not really on the Oscar radar screen at all. She gets in over Cynthia Erivo in Harriet or Awkwafina for The Farewell. Those snubs, among others, got the BAFTAs trending today as no performers of color were nominated.
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Nothing much to speculate about here. This is the same Supporting Actor list as the Globes and could easily be the Academy’s five. In all cases, Pitt is the front runner.
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees: Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), Florence Pugh (Little Women), Margot Robbie (Bombshell), Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Johansson is a double nominee in lead and supporting once again. That’s not unexpected. On the other hand, the double nod of Robbie in this category very much is. She’s expected to be recognized for Bombshell, but not Hollywood. This comes at the expense of Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers, who’s generally seen as second in line behind favorite Dern.
Some other quick notes:
It was a bad day for The Farewell. Snubs in the acting races weren’t all that surprising. Being left off Original Screenplay is.
Ford v Ferrari had a poor showing with one nod for Editing (no Sound or Score… where it could contend for Oscars).
And that wraps up a busy day of Oscar precursor coverage! You can expect my final predictions on what the Academy will do on Monday by Friday or Saturday…
