Another major Oscar precursor holds their ceremony this evening with the 26th Annual Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards. This particular show has definitely served as a massive indicator where the Academy might go with the acting winners. As for Best Picture, not so much.
So let’s get into it as I make my projections for what will happen tonight!
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
The Nominees: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Lupita Nyong’o (Us), Charlize Theron (Bombshell), Renee Zellweger (Judy)
Analysis: Nyong’o is the odd one out here as she didn’t nab an Oscar nomination. A win here by Johansson and Theron (both are possible) could set up a narrative as being Zellweger’s legit competition. Over the past decade, the SAG and Oscar winner have matched seven out of nine times. The outliers include last year when Glenn Close took the SAG for The Wife and Olivia Colman won the Academy Award for The Favourite. Tonight could also solidify Zellweger’s work as Judy Garland in the biopic. My suspicion is that it happens.
PREDICTED WINNER: RENEE ZELLWEGER
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
The Nominees: Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Taron Egerton (Rocketman), Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Analysis: A Best Actor derby where ten performers were vying for five spots means 2 men here didn’t make the Oscar cut: Bale and Egerton. Therefore, I see this as a three person showdown between DiCaprio, Driver, and Phoenix. The Oscar/SAG linkage here is significant as eight of the last nine victors went on to take the Academy Award. 2016 was the only exception when Denzel Washington got the SAG for Fences and Casey Affleck was the Oscar recipient for Manchester by the Sea.
Driver could be the larger threat, but this season is shaping up to be a sweep for Phoenix. That’s where the smart money is tonight.
PREDICTED WINNER: JOAQUIN PHOENIX
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
The Nominees: Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy), Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Analysis: There is a 7 for 9 SAG/Oscar match in this category this decade. Foxx didn’t get the Academy attention. Hanks is beloved, but his movie has underwhelmed elsewhere. Pacino and Pesci should split votes. And the narrative continues for Pitt to have a terrific awards season.
PREDICTED WINNER: BRAD PITT
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
The Nominees: Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), Nicole Kidman (Bombshell), Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Analysis: During the 2010s, there was an 8 for 8 SAG/Oscar match here from 2010-2017. Yet 2018 was the exception and a rather enormous one. Emily Blunt’s victory last year for A Quiet Place was a stunner since she had no Oscar nod. And the Academy’s winner (Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk) didn’t get a SAG nod.
Could this set up a situation where Lopez, snubbed by the Academy, could walk to the podium tonight? I’m tempted to make that upset pick. However, Dern is unquestionably the favorite and I just can’t bet against her.
PREDICTED WINNER: LAURA DERN
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Bombshell, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
Analysis: Now here is where it gets interesting! Unlike the individual acting races, there isn’t as much of a history with this category matching up with Oscar’s Best Picture. This decade it’s happened four out of nine times. For the 21st century, it’s nine out of nineteen times.
You don’t see 1917 listed here and with its Golden Globe Best Drama and PGA victories, it’s the soft front runner for Oscar. An omission here doesn’t mean much as the last two Academy BP recipients (The Shape of Water, Green Book) missed here. Other than Bombshell, the nominees here are all nominated for Best Picture. Any of them winning tonight could position that film as the main competitor to 1917. That said, I don’t discount Bombshell taking the prize this evening as it received the greatest number of SAG nods.
Parasite is the only nominee where none of its individual performers were nominated. You could argue that the voters simply saved for their votes for this race. Jojo has its hardcore fans. The Irishman boasts a trio of acting legends.
Ultimately, I’m leaning toward the sprawling cast of Hollywood. Yet I’ll freely admit that this category seems wide open.
PREDICTED WINNER: ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
And there you have it! I’ll have a post up recounting how I did and what it means for the Oscar race soon enough…
Continuing with my Oscar series outlining the cases for and against nominees in the top six categories, we arrive at Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman. This is my second of (gulp) 34 posts for films and individuals picked in the Picture, Director, and the acting races. If you missed yesterday’s writeup about Ford v Ferrari, you can find it here:
Scorsese’s latest is an epic unification of screen legends Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, and Joe Pesci in the genre they’re known best for… the gangster tale. The three and a half hour opus certainly has awards gravitas. It was pegged as a likely nominee from the moment it was announced. Both Pacino and Pesci were named in Supporting Actor and the pic sports 10 nominations, which is tied for second along with 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Scorsese is obviously a legendary figure and this is his ninth effort to get a Picture nod (the only winner being 2006’s The Departed).
The critics have been on its side and it has a 96% Rotten Tomatoes score. Several critics group named it as the year’s best.
The Case Against The Irishman
That attention has not translated to the big awards shows yet. The Golden Globes surprised most when they picked 1917 over this in Best Drama. The Critics Choice Awards chose Hollywood. Some have griped about its length. De Niro, unlike Pacino and Pesci, couldn’t manage a nod with the Globes, SAG, or the Academy. And then there’s the still unsettled notion that the Academy could have a Netflix problem, despite the streamer leading this year’s studios in total number of nominations. In 2018, Roma appeared to be the front runner until that Netflix property lost to Green Book.
The Verdict
There was little doubt that The Irishman would garner plenty of attention in various categories, including here. Yet viability as a winner is much in question. Scorsese’s latest could still take the top prize, but it appears to be a bit of a long shot at the moment.
Well, folks, the Oscar nominations were out bright and early this morning. Per usual, there were some genuine surprises and omissions that will have Twitter buzzing right up until the ceremony February 9th.
Readers of the blog know that I spend months trying to put the puzzle together on who and what will be nominated. My results today? Out of the 109 predictions made, 88 of them came to fruition. In the eight biggest categories, there were four that I got all nominees correct… including Best Picture. Truth be told, I’m pretty pleased with my results!
Before we break it down race by race, some general comments. As for movies that had a disappointing wakeup call, there were numerous entries that had possibilities in the major categories and beyond. Those left on the cutting room floor include Booksmart, Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, Uncut Gems, and Us. Another movie barely left standing was Rocketman. I had it pegged for five nominations, but it managed just a single mention in Original Song.
For the films that did make it in, Joker scored the most nominations (somewhat of a surprise) with 11 followed by The Irishman, 1917, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood with 10 apiece.
With some of my analysis here, you’ll see strong indications on what my winner forecast might be. Expect that post to be up a couple of days before the ceremony.
And with that, let’s break it down!
Best Picture
The Nominees: Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
How I Did: 9/9 (!)
Analysis: For Oscar prognosticators, just getting the correct number of films that are nominated is an accomplishment. It can fluctuate anywhere between 5 and 10. Nine felt correct for some time and I’ve had these ones predicted for several weeks. As for a winner, I feel six of them have at least decent to strong shots. I’m nowhere near ready to crown a victor.
Best Director
The Nominees: Bong Joon-Ho (Parasite), Sam Mendes (1917), Todd Phillips (Joker), Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: It was Phillips riding the Joker wave over Greta Gerwig for Little Women. Like Picture, this race feels wide open and it could come down to Joon-Ho vs. Mendes.
Best Actor
The Nominees: Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: With so many contenders in the running, going 4 for 5 here feels like more of an accomplishment that naming the Best Pic nominees. It was Pryce getting a slot over Taron Egerton in Rocketman. Banderas and Pryce are first time nominees. It looks like Phoenix could sweep awards season and that gives him his first win.
Best Actress
The Nominees: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), Charlize Theron (Bombshell), Renee Zellweger (Judy)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Analysis: 100% here and like Best Actor, there’s a strong front runner with Zellweger. If so, she’d pick up her second statue after being named Supporting Actress for 2003’s Cold Mountain.
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Analysis: What a list of legends we have here! There’s some interesting tidbits to share. Every nominee here has won an Oscar. Yet it’s been some time since most were nominated – Pesci since 1990 for GoodFellas, Pacino since 1992 for his double nod with Scent of a Woman and Glengarry Glen Ross, Hopkins since 1997 (Amistad), and rather shockingly, Hanks… who has his first nomination since 2000 with Cast Away. Pitt, on the other hand, is the most recent nominee for his acting (2011’s Moneyball). However, he’s the only one of the five to never win the Oscar for his performances (he does have an Oscar for producing 2013’s 12 Years a Slave). Got all that? And here’s the last word on that… Pitt seems destined to join their company in February as a winner.
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees: Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell), Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), Florence Pugh (Little Women), Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: Now we get to the first genuine shocker and that’s Jennifer Lopez not being nominated for Hustlers. Bates takes her spot. Lopez was generally seen as close to a sure thing for recognition and I’ve had her listed at #2 behind Dern for weeks. This only helps Dern for her first podium walk.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, The Two Popes
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Analysis: This has looked like the final five for a while now and this could represent the best chance for a major win for The Irishman. That said, I wouldn’t count Jojo or Joker completely out.
Best Original Screenplay
The Nominees: Knives Out, Marriage Story, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: No love for The Farewell here with 1917 getting in. Tarantino is a soft favorite over Marriage Story and Parasite.
Best Internation Feature Film
The Nominees: Corpus Christi, Honeyland, Les Miserables, Pain and Glory, Parasite
How I Did: 3/5
Les Mis, Pain, and Parasite were automatics. The last two spots were tricky to forecast and I had Atlantics and Those Who Remained instead. Honeyland pulled off a notable achievement by being named here and in Documentary. Bottom line: this is the easiest race of them all to project. It’s going to be Parasite.
Best Animated Feature
The Nominees: How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, I Lost My Body, Klaus, Missing Link, Toy Story 4
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: Next big surprise as Disney’s Frozen II was frozen out with Klaus taking the spot. Toy Story 4 is the favorite, but I don’t discount the possibility of an upset here (with Dragon and Body as potential spoilers).
Best Documentary Feature
The Nominees: American Factory, The Cave, The Edge of Democracy, For Sama, Honeyland
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: The documentary branch is always unpredictable and that proved accurate this morning. Apollo 11 and One Child Nation were the two I had in over The Cave and The Edge of Democracy. Netflix’s American Factory (the first doc from Barack and Michelle Obama’s production company) appears to be the leader of the pack.
Best Cinematography
The Nominees: The Irishman, Joker, The Lighthouse, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: I had Ford v Ferrari over Lighthouse. This looks to be a win for 1917.
Best Costume Design
The Nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: Surprises here with Dolemite Is My Name and Rocketman being ignored in favor of The Irishman and Joker. I even thought the two I predicted had real shots at winning. This one could be between Women and Hollywood.
Best Film Editing
The Nominees: Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Parasite
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: Now this one is interesting! I had Hollywood in and not Jojo. Why is Editing important? Of any category at the Oscars, a nomination here means a lot to the eventual Best Picture winner. The last movie to win the big prize and not be nominated for Editing is 2014’s Birdman. And that’s really an asterisk since it was filmed in one long continuous shot (though the same basically holds true for 1917). Before that, the last Best Picture winner recipient to not score a nod here? You have to go all the way back to 1980’s Ordinary People. In other words, the snub for Hollywood here could mean something. Perhaps it will be an outlier. Yet I feel it’s key for ballot guessers to know that only two BP winners haven’t been recognized here in the past 40 years…
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Nominees: Bombshell, Joker, Judy, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, 1917
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: Hollywood and Rocketman out and Maleficent and 1917 in. Expect this to be the sole win for Bombshell.
Best Original Score
The Nominees: Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Analysis: Back to perfection! Joker has gotten the precursor love, but 1917 is a threat.
Best Original Song
The Nominees: “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4, “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman, “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough, “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II, “Stand Up” from Harriet
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: This category is a head scratcher. I had “Spirit” from The Lion King and “Glasgow” from Wild Rose in over the Toy Story and Breakthrough tracks. This should be a contest between Elton John’s Rocketman tune and the Frozen song. However, both films were significantly snubbed in other categories as mentioned above. The one thing I do know… this branch clearly loves tracks that begin with the letter I.
Best Production Design
The Nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: Had Little Women over Parasite. This could definitely be a W for Hollywood.
Best Sound Editing
The Nominees: Ford v Ferrari, Joker, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: Had Avengers: Endgame over Joker. In both sound races, this should be between Ford and 1917.
Best Sound Mixing
The Nominees: Ad Astra, Ford v Ferrari, Joker, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
How I Did: 3/5
Had Rocketman and Skywalker over Astra and Hollywood. See Sound Editing above.
Best Visual Effects
The Nominees: Avengers: Endgame, The Irishman, The Lion King, 1917, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Analysis: I’m glad this category is last alphabetically so I can end on a high note! I lean Lion King, but that could change.
And that does it for my nominations recap! As stated, expect winner predictions shortly before February 9th!
After months and months of speculation, dozens of blog posts, and constant shifting around, these are my final predictions for the 2019 Oscars. There’s been thousands of words written about the races so I’ll keep it simple here.
The nominations are out Monday. I’m picking nine pictures to get recognition (there can be anywhere from 5 to 10 and 8-9 is usually the sweet spot). For each category, I’m also naming an alternate and second alternate.
Lastly, you can be sure come Monday that I’ll have a recap up with reaction and my results. Here we go folks!
Best Picture
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
ALTERNATE – The Farewell
ALTERNATE 2 – Knives Out
Best Director
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ALTERNATE – Todd Phillips, Joker
ALTERNATE 2 – Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy
ALTERNATE – Awkwafina, The Farewell
ALTERNATE 2 – Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Best Actor
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
ALTERNATE – Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
ALTERNATE 2 – Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
ALTERNATE – Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell
ALTERNATE 2 – Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ALTERNATE – Song Kang-Ho, Parasite
ALTERNATE 2 – Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes
ALTERNATE – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
ALTERNATE 2 – Hustlers
Best Original Screenplay
The Farewell
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
ALTERNATE – 1917
ALTERNATE 2 – Uncut Gems
Best International Feature Film
Atlantics
Les Miserables
Pain and Glory
Parasite
Those Who Remained
ALTERNATE – Beanpole
ALTERNATE 2 – Honeyland
Best Animated Feature
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
ALTERNATE – Klaus
ALTERNATE 2 – Abominable
Best Documentary Feature
American Factory
Apollo 11
For Sama
Honeyland
One Child Nation
ALTERNATE – Midnight Family
ALTERNATE 2 – Maiden
Best Cinematography
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ALTERNATE – The Lighthouse
ALTERNATE 2 – Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Best Costume Design
Dolemite Is My Name
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman
ALTERNATE – Downton Abbey
ALTERNATE 2 – The Irishman
Best Film Editing
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
ALTERNATE – 1917
ALTERNATE 2 – Marriage Story
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman
ALTERNATE – Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
ALTERNATE 2 – Dolemite Is My Name
Best Production Design
1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ALTERNATE – Parasite
ALTERNATE 2 – Joker
Best Original Score
1917
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
ALTERNATE – Ford v Ferrari
ALTERNATE 2 – Jojo Rabbit
Best Original Song
“Glasgow” from Wild Rose
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman
“Into the Unknown” from Frozen II
“Spirit” from The Lion King
“Stand Up” from Harriet
ALTERNATE – “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough
ALTERNATE 2 – “A Glass of Soju” from Parasite
Best Sound Editing
1917
Avengers: Endgame
Ford v Ferrari
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
ALTERNATE – Joker
ALTERNATE 2 – Rocketman
Best Sound Mixing
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Rocketman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
ALTERNATE – Avengers: Endgame
ALTERNATE 2 – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Visual Effects
1917
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
ALTERNATE – Alita: Battle Angel
ALTERNATE 2 – Gemini Man
And that means my final tally for pictures getting the following number of nominations goes like this:
11 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
9 Nominations
The Irishman
8 Nominations
1917, Joker, Little Women
6 Nominations
Marriage Story
5 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Parasite, Rocketman
4 Nominations
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3 Nominations
Bombshell
2 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lion King, Pain and Glory, The Two Popes
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, American Factory Apollo 11, Atlantics, Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, For Sama, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Knives Out, Les Miserables, Missing Link, One Child Nation, Those Who Remained, Toy Story 4, Wild Rose
On a packed awards precursors day that included DGA and PGA announcements, our compadres overseas put out their nominations as well. The British Academy Film Awards (or BAFTAs) went wild for Joker, which led all contenders with 11 nods. The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood were close behind with 10 and 1917 achieved 9.
The BAFTAs are an often decent harbinger of what follows at the Oscars. In the acting races, they’re often good for 3 or 4 of the eventual contenders stateside. Let’s take a look at the top six races with a little analysis.
Best Picture
The Nominees: 1917, The Irishman, Joker, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
No real surprises here. If anything, this is another sign that Marriage Story isn’t a real contender to win Best Picture at the Oscars. Yet that’s kind of been the general consensus for a little while.
Best Director
The Nominees: Bong Joon-Ho (Parasite), Sam Mendes (1917), Todd Phillips (Joker), Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
A 5 for 5 match with Picture. Other than Phillips, the other four were pretty much automatic nominees. Phillips gets the slot over Greta Gerwig (Little Women), Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story), and today’s surprise DGA player Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit).
Best Actor
The Nominees: Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Taron Egerton (Rocketman), Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
The ultra competitive Best Actor derby continues. Phoenix has to be considered the favorite after his Golden Globes victory and Joker leading the way with nods. It’s another good showing for Egerton after his Globes podium walk. Pryce gets in over Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory) and Robert De Niro in The Irishman. The latter’s exclusion should be noted. De Niro didn’t get a Globe, SAG, or BAFTA nod. For those picking him to get recognition from the Academy, actors left out of all three very rarely make the cut.
Best Actress
The Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Wild Rose), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), Charlize Theron (Bombshell), Renee Zellweger (Judy)
Buckley being named is a genuine surprise. She’s not really on the Oscar radar screen at all. She gets in over Cynthia Erivo in Harriet or Awkwafina for The Farewell. Those snubs, among others, got the BAFTAs trending today as no performers of color were nominated.
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Nothing much to speculate about here. This is the same Supporting Actor list as the Globes and could easily be the Academy’s five. In all cases, Pitt is the front runner.
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees: Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), Florence Pugh (Little Women), Margot Robbie (Bombshell), Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Johansson is a double nominee in lead and supporting once again. That’s not unexpected. On the other hand, the double nod of Robbie in this category very much is. She’s expected to be recognized for Bombshell, but not Hollywood. This comes at the expense of Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers, who’s generally seen as second in line behind favorite Dern.
Some other quick notes:
It was a bad day for The Farewell. Snubs in the acting races weren’t all that surprising. Being left off Original Screenplay is.
Ford v Ferrari had a poor showing with one nod for Editing (no Sound or Score… where it could contend for Oscars).
And that wraps up a busy day of Oscar precursor coverage! You can expect my final predictions on what the Academy will do on Monday by Friday or Saturday…
There are years when the Golden Globes don’t seem to have much of an impact on my Oscar predictions. That could still hold true at the end of the day, but last night’s ceremony did so and that especially applies to the Best Actor derby and my numeric rankings in general with other top races. Let us count the ways…
The surprising wins for 1917 as Best Drama and Sam Mendes as its director is a real story. The timing could not be more perfect as the World War I action drama opens wide this weekend. In Picture, it rises from 5th to 4th. For Mendes, he goes from 4th to 3rd and that’s at the expense of Martin Scorsese.
Joaquin Phoenix hits the #1 slot in the ultra competitive Best Actor competition over Adam Driver, who’s been first for many weeks. Perhaps more significantly, Taron Egerton’s victory over Leonardo DiCaprio and Eddie Murphy in the Musical/Comedy race at the Globes places in my predicted five for the first time (he goes from 10th to 5th!). I’ve also put Antonio Banderas back in and that means Robert De Niro and Jonathan Pryce are on the outside looking in.
In Original Screenplay, Quentin Tarantino vaults to #1 over Noah Baumbach.
And an important programming note… this is the last time you will see my weekly predictions for 2019 in this manner. With nominations out a week from today, I will have a FINAL predictions post up this weekend (likely Friday or perhaps Saturday). As of this moment, here’s how I have it all shaking out!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Parasite (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 2)
4. 1917 (PR: 5)
5. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
6. Joker (PR: 7)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Farewell (PR: 12)
11. Bombshell (PR: 11)
12. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
13. Knives Out (PR: 14)
14. Uncut Gems (PR: 15)
15. Pain and Glory (PR: 13)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
4. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 6)
7. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 9)
8. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
10. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
2. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
5. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 4)
7. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
8. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
9. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 9)
10. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 4)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)
8. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: 10)
9. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
10. Ana de Armas, Knives Out (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 7)
7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 6)
8. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 8)
9. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (PR: 10)
10. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 4)
5. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 6)
7. Shuzhen Zhao, The Farewell (PR: 7)
8. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 8)
9. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. Joker (PR: 5)
5. The Two Popes (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
7. Hustlers (PR: 7)
8. Just Mercy (PR: 8)
9. Dark Waters (PR: 10)
10. Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Knives Out (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. 1917 (PR: 7)
7. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
10. Bombshell (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Dolemite Is My Name
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Corpus Christi (PR: 6)
5. Atlantics (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beanpole (PR: 7)
7. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)
8. The Painted Bird (PR: 5)
9. Honeyland (PR: 8)
10. Truth and Justice (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Missing Link (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Funan (PR: 9)
7. Klaus (PR: 6)
8. Weathering with You (PR: 8)
9. Abominable (PR: 7)
10. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. For Sama (PR: 3)
3. Apollo 11 (PR: 2)
4. One Child Nation (PR: 4)
5. Honeyland (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 6)
7. Midnight Family (PR: 9)
8. Maiden (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 7)
10. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Knock Down the House
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Joker (PR: 4)
4. The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
7. The Lighthouse (PR: 6)
8. Parasite (PR: 5)
9. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Marriage Story (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
A Hidden Life
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Joker (PR: 8)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)
9. Judy (PR: 6)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: 10)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Parasite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 6)
7. 1917 (PR: 7)
8. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
10. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bombshell
Apollo 11
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. Judy (PR: 3)
3. Joker (PR: 2)
4. Rocketman (PR: 5)
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: 7)
7. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 6)
8. 1917 (PR: 10)
9. Little Women (PR: 8)
10. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Joker (PR: 2)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
4. Little Women (PR: 3)
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)
7. Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 7)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. The King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Pain and Glory
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: 4)
4. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)
5. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “A Glass of Soju” from Parasite (PR: 7)
7. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 6)
8. “Letter to My Godfather” from The Black Godfather (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough (PR: 9)
10. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Speechless” from Aladdin
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. 1917 (PR: 5)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 4)
7. Joker (PR: 6)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ford v Ferrari
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
8. Joker (PR: 7)
9. The Irishman (PR: 9)
10. Us (PR: 10)
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Rocketman (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 6)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
7. Ad Astra (PR: 7)
8. Joker (PR: 8)
9. The Irishman (PR: 9)
10. Us (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Lion King (PR: 1)
2. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 2)
3. The Irishman (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
5. 1917 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
7. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 6)
8. Terminator: Dark Fate (PR: 8)
9. Captain Marvel (PR: 9)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
And that equates to these pictures garnering the following numbers for nominations:
10 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
9 Nominations
The Irishman
8 Nominations
1917, Marriage Story
7 Nominations
Little Women
6 Nominations
Joker
5 Nominations
Parasite, Rocketman
4 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Bombshell
2 Nominations
Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lion King, Pain and Glory, The Two Popes
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Corpus Christi, Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, For Sama, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Knives Out, Les Miserables, Missing Link, One Child Nation, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Toy Story 4, Wild Rose
With the exception of two or three categories, the only thing that seems certain for Sunday night’s Golden Globe Awards is that host Ricky Gervais will say something to upset people. With questions about who and what will emerge victorious this awards season, there is plenty of drama to go with the music and comedy this weekend.
While I spend a lot of time prognosticating the Oscars on this blog, I only did one post estimating what the Hollywood Foreign Press gave us for consideration. And now it’s time to predict the winners.
First, a quick Globes 101. This ceremony splits the lead acting races and pictures into Drama and Musical or Comedy. They do not split screenplay into Adapted or Original like the Academy does. Furthermore, unlike the Oscars, foreign pictures are nominated only in that race and are not eligible for the two top Picture categories.
This creates a fascinating dynamic Sunday evening as Oscar’s likely top three potential Best Picture winners (The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite) are all in different races. Bottom line: the Globes could be more helpful in pointing out what direction Academy voters may go in the acting derbies. We shall see…
Here goes as I break down each competition with analysis and a winner pick:
Best Motion Picture – Drama
The Nominees: 1917, The Irishman, Joker, Marriage Story, The Two Popes
Analysis: Of the three motion picture races, this is the one I feel least confident about. In 2018, the HFPA went with a giant blockbuster and a surprise with Bohemian Rhapsody. If they go this route again, you can expect Joker to be the victor. After all, 1917 hasn’t even opened wide yet (it could sneak a win too) and the other three are Netflix releases. This ultimately serves as the first major test for The Irishman as it moves through awards season. I’ll give it the edge, but not my much.
PREDICTED WINNER – THE IRISHMAN
Alternate – Joker
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
The Nominees: Dolemite Is My Name, Jojo Rabbit, Knives Out, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Rocketman
Analysis: Some simple math here as Hollywood is the only nominee that also scored a nod for its director. That bodes well and this is the clear frontrunner.
PREDICTED WINNER – ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
Alternate – Rocketman
Best Director
The Nominees: Bong Joon-Ho (Parasite), Sam Mendes (1917), Todd Phillips (Joker), Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Analysis: This could certainly come down to Scorsese vs. Tarantino. Yet Sunday could be the beginning of a huge run for Joon-Ho picking up directing honors. I think that’s what happens.
PREDICTED WINNER – BONG JOON-HO
Alternate – Quentin Tarantino
Best Actor – Drama
The Nominees: Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari), Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
Analysis: The Driver vs. Phoenix battle begins with the Globes. Joker did extremely well with Globes voters and this race probably represents its best chance for a victory. Driver is quite viable, but I’m going Phoenix.
PREDICTED WINNER – JOAQUIN PHOENIX
Alternate – Adam Driver
Best Actress – Drama
The Nominees: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), Charlize Theron (Bombshell), Renee Zellweger (Judy)
Analysis: In what could absolutely be the Oscar final five, Zellweger’s work as the iconic Judy Garland seems like the type of performance HFPA will eat up. Johansson and Theron are threats, but this could be the first of a couple more Zellweger podium walks.
PREDICTED WINNER – RENEE ZELLWEGER
Alternate – Scarlett Johansson
Best Actor – Musical or Comedy
The Nominees: Daniel Craig (Knives Out), Roman Griffin Davis (Jojo Rabbit), Leonardo Dicaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Taron Egerton (Rocketman), Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name)
Analysis: For Craig and Davis, it’s an honor to be nominated as this is a three person race. Both Egerton and DiCaprio should pick up significant votes and I’m awfully tempted to go Leo. However, Murphy’s acclaimed performance and his legendary status (especially coming so soon after his SNL return) could be irresistible to the HFPA.
PREDICTED WINNER – EDDIE MURPHY
Alternate – Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Actress – Musical or Comedy
The Nominees: Ana de Armas (Knives Out), Awkwafina (The Farewell), Cate Blanchett (Where’d You Go Bernadette), Beanie Feldstein (Booksmart), Emma Thompson (Late Night)
Analysis: Awkwafina is really the only player here with an Oscar shot so she’s a strong frontrunner. It’s pretty much that simple. I’d say de Armas is the only upset possibility and it’s rather slim.
PREDICTED WINNER – AWKWAFINA
Alternate – Ana de Armas
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Analysis: What a list of legends we have here as Pacino and Pesci may split votes and that paves the way for Pitt. Expect this to be a familiar refrain.
PREDICTED WINNER – BRAD PITT
Alternate – Joe Pesci
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees: Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell), Annette Bening (The Report), Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Analysis: The smart money is on Lopez, who’s had a remarkable comeback in 2019. I may regret this, but I’m going with a gut feeling that Dern takes it and that may represent the only win for Marriage Story of its six nods.
PREDICTED WINNER – LAURA DERN
Alternate – Jennifer Lopez
Best Screenplay
The Nominees: The Irishman, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite, The Two Popes
Analysis: The only entry here I don’t see with a fair shot of winning is Popes. This is a coin flip situation. Despite what I just said about Dern, Marriage could absolutely win. The Parasite love could extend here and same with Irishman. Tough one, but I’ll give Tarantino the edge (especially since I’m betting against him in Director).
PREDICTED WINNER – ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
Alternate – Marriage Story
Best Foreign Language Film
The Nominees: The Farewell, Les Miserables, Pain and Glory, Parasite, Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Analysis: All five pics have their ardent admirers, but here’s the deal. If Parasite doesn’t win, it would constitute the biggest upset of the evening. Not happening.
PREDICTED WINNER – PARASITE
Alternate – umm… let’s say Pain and Glory
Best Animated Feature Film
The Nominees: Frozen II, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, The Lion King, Missing Link, Toy Story 4
Analysis: Disney has 60% of the nominees here, including that rather shocking Lion King inclusion. I wouldn’t totally count out Dragon, but Pixar should get the glory.
PREDICTED WINNER – TOY STORY 4
Alternate – How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Best Orignal Score
The Nominees: 1917, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, Motherless Brooklyn
Analysis: This one isn’t easy as just Brooklyn seems unlikely to get it. I’ll give Thomas Newman (1917) a small advantage over cousin Randy (Marriage Story), Alexandre Desplat (Women), and Hildur Guonadottir (Joker).
PREDICTED WINNER – 1917
Alternate – Little Women
Best Original Song
The Nominees: “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats, “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman, “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II, “Spirit” from The Lion King, “Stand Up” from Harriet
Analysis: Never count out Disney with the ballad from Frozen II, but the general consensus is it’s no “Let It Go”. There’s some serious heavy hitters here with Beyonce, Taylor Swift, and Elton John in the mix. HFPA might want to see Elton onstage.
PREDICTED WINNER – “(I’M GONNA) LOVE ME AGAIN” FROM ROCKETMAN
Alternate – “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II
So this means I’m predicting the Globes spread it around with the following winner counts:
3 Wins
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2 Wins
Parasite
1 Win
1917, Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, The Irishman, Joker, Judy, Marriage Story, Rocketman, Toy Story 4
I’ll have a recap of the show up Sunday night with my results!
