Today’s Streaming Guide bring us an absolute masterclass in filmmaking and acting that is currently available via Netflix:
Paul Thomas Anderson’s There Will Be Blood is an early 20th century tale of oil mining and greed with a towering and Oscar winning performance from Daniel Day-Lewis. As Daniel Plainview, a ruthless prospector turned tycoon – Day-Lewis pretty much won the Academy Award as soon as the picture screened for critics. Blood was also victorious in the Cinematography category and deservedly so. The pic also features dynamite supporting work from Paul Dano as a scheming preacher. And there’s a line regarding milkshakes that stands along the hit Kelis track as the best 21st century milkshake references.
Blood continued Anderson’s ascent into greatness after such features as Boogie Nights, Magnolia, and Punch-Drunk Love. It has since continued with The Master, Inherent Vice, and Phantom Thread (which is headlined by another terrific Day-Lewis role). I have a special place for Boogie Nights, which I considered to be the best movie of the 1990s not named Pulp Fiction. As far as PTA’s output, this ranks second.
In a day that saw numerous Oscar precursors unveil their nominees (get ready for DGA and BAFTA posts later this evening), the Producers Guild of America named their ten nominated pictures of 2019. The winner will be named January 18.
Before we get to the analysis, let’s take a gander at the nominees:
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Knives Out
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
In short, there are no true surprises here. What does this mean for these film’s chances at a Best Picture nod? It means a lot based on odds. Over the past five years, there’s never been less than seven PGA pics that didn’t score a Best Picture nomination from the Academy. There’s an asterisk in 2017 when 11 movies got PGA attention.
This means you can count on 70% of the movies above to hear their names called on Monday. And I’ll give you those seven right now: 1917, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite. I suspect there will be at least eight or nine for 2019.
In my latest round of Oscar estimates Monday (before final predictions this weekend), I also have Ford v Ferrari and Little Women landing spots. It’s worth noting that the PGA nod for Women might have been needed as it has missed some key earlier precursors. As for Knives Out, it’s certainly got a shot but I’m a bit skeptical it makes the final cut (pun intended).
The PGA picks in 2016 and 2018 encapsulated all of the eventual Oscar nominees. For 2014, 2015, and 2017, here is the full list of Best Picture nominees from the Academy that weren’t named by PGA: Selma, Room, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread. In other words… small list. So it could be said that today is bad news from an oddsmakers perspective for the following hopefuls: Bombshell, The Farewell, Pain and Glory, Rocketman, The Two Popes, and Uncut Gems.
Three out of the previous five PGA winners went on to win Best Picture, including 2017’s The Shape of Water and last year’s Green Book. That victor will not be announced for 11 days, but the PGA has granted us plenty to speculate about in the meantime.
The Broadcast Film Critics Association announced their nominees for the Critics Choice Awards today, with the show itself airing January 13. Unlike some precursors, it truly can be a window of what’s to come with Oscar nods… with a significant caveat.
This particular awards ceremony lists six to seven performers and directors in those races. Therefore we know one or two nominees won’t make the cut for the gold statue. As for Best Picture, they do name ten and that’s the highest number the Academy can honor. Critics Choice has a large number of categories, but we shall focus on the top six in today’s analysis and use the last three ceremonies for historical context.
In 2015, all eight Oscar nominated films were named here. In 2016, it was eight of the nine Academy honorees named, with HiddenFigures missing the Critics cut. Last year, it was 8/9 again with PhantomThread as the outlier.
The 10 nominees this year exactly match my current top 10 Oscar possibilities. These selections serve as potential bad news for titles such as CanYouEverForgiveMe?, EighthGrade, FirstReformed, CrazyRichAsians and Widows. If any of them make it in, FirstMan is likely the most vulnerable.
BestDirector
Nominees: Damien Chazelle (FirstMan), Bradley Cooper (AStarIsBorn), Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Peter Farrelly (GreenBook), Yorgos Lanthimos (TheFavourite), Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Adam McKay (Vice)
Three and five and four. Those are the respective number of nominated directors here from 2014-2016 that made the Academy cut.
The story here is the surprising omission of Barry Jenkins for IfBealeStreetCouldTalk. Whether that is a sign of something to come is questionable. Chazelle, Farrelly, and McKay might have helped themselves a bit today.
BestActor
Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (AStarIsBorn), Willem Dafoe (AtEternity’sGate), Ryan Gosling (FirstMan), Ethan Hawke (FirstReformed), Rami Malek (BohemianRhapsody), Viggo Mortensen (GreenBook)
2015 saw a five for five match while the last two years have seen four Critics nominees receive Oscar love. As in the previous two races, FirstMan got a boost yet again for the box office disappointment that had previously underwhelmed in precursors. This list not including Robert Redford’s work in TheOldMan & TheGun could mean the end of the road for his potential inclusion.
BestActress
Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Emily Blunt (MaryPoppinsReturns), Glenn Close (TheWife), Toni Collette (Hereditary), Olivia Colman (TheFavourite), Lady Gaga (AStarIsBorn), Melissa McCarthy (CanYouEverForgiveMe?)
Simple math here. Over the past three years, the five women listed for the Best Actress Oscar have all been mentioned here. By the way, the three winners match as well.
This year is crowded for Best Actress (more so than Actor). Today’s nominations could be best news for Viola Davis (Widows), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Julia Roberts (BenIsBack), Saoirse Ronan (MaryQueenofScots), and Rosamund Pike (APrivateWar).
As for actual nominees, Aparicio and Collette helped their momentum to potentially dislodge one or two of the others.
BestSupportingActor
Nominees: Mahershala Ali (GreenBook), Timothee Chalamet (BeautifulBoy), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliot (AStarIsBorn), Michael B. Jordan (BlackPanther)
Unlike the last race, 2015 and 2016 saw four Critics recipients here get Academy attention. Last year, it was three. While Jordan helped himself, we could still see Sam Rockwell (Vice) or possibly Nicholas Hoult (TheFavourite) in the mix.
BestSupportingActress
Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Claire Foy (FirstMan), Nicole Kidman (BoyErased), Regina King (IfBealeStreetCouldTalk), Emma Stone (TheFavourite), Rachel Weisz (TheFavourite)
Five for five match three years ago and four for five the last two years. Right now, these six women are my top six Oscar contenders. If there’s a name not here that could sneak in for Academy voters, perhaps it’s Natalie Portman in VoxLux, though it’s weak limited release debut over the past weekend doesn’t help at all.
It never lets up this time of year with Awards prognosticating. SAG nods will be unveiled Wednesday. I’ll have predictions up in short order with reaction up soon after!
A couple of days back on the blog, I speculated about what films in the 21st century would have been nominated for Best Picture prior to a rule change in 2009. As a refresher, nearly a decade ago, the Academy changed its Best Picture Nominees from a finite five to anywhere between five to ten. In that time frame, the magic number most years has been nine (it was actually a finite 10 for 2009 and 2010 before the fluctuation change). My recent post selected two pictures from 1990-2008 that I believe would have been nominated. You can find that post here:
Today comes the inverse of that column. What if the rule had never been altered? What if the last nine Oscar ceremonies honored just five features?
In making these picks, there’s obviously one extremely easy selection – the movie that won. In naming the other four, I’m looking at factors such as number of other nods it received. For instance, if a Director won that award for their work and the Picture went to something else, that director’s film is in.
So let’s get to it in this alternative Oscar universe. I’ll be reminding you all the pictures recognized and then showing my final five.
Paul Thomas Anderson’s PhantomThread serves up a recipe that is both deliciously lush in its look and sickeningly pitch black in its sneaky comedic sensibilities. It’s a fascinating concoction to behold with an alleged swan song performance by Daniel Day-Lewis where he’s occasionally upstaged by the women around him.
The three-time Oscar winner is Reynolds Woodcock, a brilliant fashion designer in 1950s London. He’s the go to dressmaker for high society and he delves into his work with the serious and intense manner in which, well, Day-Lewis inhabits his roles. Reynolds is a forever bachelor who worships his deceased mother and holds an extremely and maybe too close relationship with sister Cyril (Lesley Manville), who assists with his thriving and thrifty business.
A trip to the countryside introduces Reynolds to Alma (Vicky Krieps), a young waitress. He asks her to dinner and in quick succession, she’s moved in with him. Alma serves a dress model at first, but is soon his latest muse (we imagine there’s been several) and love interest. She quickly realizes that her new and fancy world revolves around Reynolds and his routine that he despises being disrupted. He’s a tortured genius and egomaniac. Yet the roads we foresee this union dissolving into are not always what writer/director Anderson has up his sleeve.
That’s partly because Alma doesn’t turn out to be just a needy girlfriend. Some of the film’s biggest surprises and key moments come from her choices on how to deal with Reynolds. Krieps gives us a feisty and fantastic performance to behold. Manville’s work is quite impressive as well. Sister Cyril is an intriguing presence – always steps away from Reynolds and bizarrely attached to him. She’s also the only person who can speak any truth to him until Alma enters the frame.
And there’s Day-Lewis, an actor who can do more with a line reading choice or facial expression than nearly anyone else. With Reynolds Woodcock, we have one more memorable and unique creation. He’s seemingly incapable of nothing less.
Anderson, of course, already directed Day-Lewis as the unforgettable oil baron in ThereWillBeBlood. They mix well together. Like all of Anderson’s work, this is a visually sumptuous experience where the gorgeous score from Jonny Greenwood and costume design from Mark Bridges are especially noteworthy.
PhantomThread hides some of its best tricks for the end. It may have you wanting to watch the off kilter courtship of its subjects a second time – or to again watch a great auteur in fine form with a trio of performances to match.
Well, the 90th Annual Academy Awards have come and – after 220 minutes of ceremony – gone. This is my annual wrap up of the show and (of course most importantly) how I did with my predictions!
In short, not too shabby…
I went 19/21 on my predictions – missing out on just Best Original Song (“Remember Me” from Coco won over my upset pick “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall and A Fantastic Woman took Foreign Film over The Insult). Neither were a surprise.
In fact, the night was rather predictable as far as winners. The Shape of Water was the big victor, taking Picture, Director (Guillermo del Toro), Production Design, and Original Score. The acting winners (Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour, Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Allison Janney in I, Tonya) were the wise ones to have in the pool. Get Out got its recognition via Jordan Peele’s Original Screenplay. Legends like James Ivory (for his Call Me by Your Name Adapted Screenplay) and cinematographer Roger Deakins (for his Blade Runner 2049 work) finally won gold statues.
Some other quick observations:
Jimmy Kimmel, as he was last year, is a solid host for the show. I would have no problem with him essentially being the new Billy Crystal and hosting every year or every other year. That said, it sure would be interesting to see what a Tiffany Haddish or Dave Chappelle could do with it.
That 90 years in movies Oscar montage could have gone on another half hour and I would have been fine with it.
I hope the Phantom Thread costume designer is enjoying his jet ski today.
And, of course, no Best Picture screw up! Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway can relax today.
And there you have it, folks! That’s my shape of Oscar 2017.
Well… here we are. After months of prognosticating and speculating, the 90th Annual Academy Awards is upon us this Sunday. This post serves as my final predictions for what and who will emerge victorious in five days.
I am listing my predicted winner as well as my runner-up in case I’m not perfect… and I certainly won’t be. I’ll have reaction up Sunday night as to how I did and my general thoughts on the ceremony.
Until then – these are my FINAL Oscar Winner predictions:
Best Picture
Nominees:
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: The Shape of Water
RUNNER-UP: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Director
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
PREDICTED WINNER: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
RUNNER-UP: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Best Actor
Nominees:
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
PREDICTED WINNER: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
RUNNER-UP: Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Best Actress
Nominees:
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
PREDICTED WINNER: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
RUNNER-UP: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
RUNNER-UP: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
PREDICTED WINNER: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
RUNNER-UP: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
PREDICTED WINTER: Call Me by Your Name
RUNNER-UP: Molly’s Game
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: Get Out
RUNNER-UP: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
PREDICTED WINNER: Coco
RUNNER-UP: Loving Vincent
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees:
A Fantastic Woman
The Insult
Loveless
On Body and Soul
The Square
PREDICTED WINNER: The Insult
RUNNER-UP: A Fantastic Woman
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees:
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
PREDICTED WINNER: Icarus
RUNNER-UP: Last Men in Aleppo
Best Film Editing
Nominees:
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: Dunkirk
RUNNER-UP: Baby Driver
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
PREDICTED WINNER: Blade Runner 2049
RUNNER-UP: Dunkirk
Best Production Design
Nominees:
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
PREDICTED WINNER: The Shape of Water
RUNNER-UP: Dunkirk
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul
PREDICTED WINNER: Phantom Thread
RUNNER-UP: The Shape of Water
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:
Darkest Hour
Victoria and Abdul
Wonder
PREDICTED WINNER: Darkest Hour
RUNNER-UP: Wonder
Best Visual Effects
Nominees:
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
PREDICTED WINNER: Blade Runner 2049
RUNNER-UP: War for the Planet of the Apes
Best Sound Editing
Nominees:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
PREDICTED WINNER: Dunkirk
RUNNER-UP: Blade Runner 2049
Best Sound Mixing
Nominees:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
PREDICTED WINNER: Dunkirk
RUNNER-UP: Baby Driver
Best Original Score
Nominees:
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: The Shape of Water
RUNNER-UP: Dunkirk
Best Original Song
Nominees:
“Mighty River” from Mudbound
“Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name
“Remember Me” from Coco
“Stand Up for Something” from Marshall
“This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
PREDICTED WINNER: “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall
RUNNER-UP: “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
And that leaves the following breakdown of number of wins for each picture:
4 Wins
The Shape of Water
3 Wins
Dunkirk
2 Wins
Darkest Hour, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Blade Runner 2049
1 Win
I, Tonya, Call Me by Your Name, Get Out, Coco, The Insult, Icarus, Phantom Thread, Marshall
The 2017 Oscar nominations came out yesterday with yours truly battling a so so 71%. Naturally we now move to predicted winners in the categories. This will not be my last time predicting as I’ll make final winner estimates on the eve of the ceremony.
For now, here’s who and what I have taking home the prized golden statue:
Best Picture
The Shape of Water
Best Director
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Best Actor
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Best Actress
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Supporting Actor
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Supporting Actress
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me by Your Name
Best Original Screenplay
Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature
Coco
Best Foreign Language Film
The Insult
Best Documentary Feature
Faces Places
Best Editing
Dunkirk
Best Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Best Production Design
The Shape of Water
Best Costume Design
Phantom Thread
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
Best Visual Effects
War for the Planet of the Apes
Best Sound Editing
Dunkirk
Best Sound Mixing
Dunkirk
Best Original Score
The Shape of Water
Best Original Song
“This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
That’s all for now but expect final predictions shortly before the ceremony!
The nominations for this February’s Academy Awards were revealed this morning by Andy Serkis and Tiffany Haddish. As always, there were some surprises and my months long quest for prediction perfection fell short. Of the 109 nominations, I correctly guessed 78 of them and that works out to 71% (a bit lower than previous years, but oh well).
Here I’ll break down every category and tell you how I did with a bit of analysis:
Best Picture
Nominees: Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
How I Did: 7/9
Analysis: OK, lesson learned. When in doubt, predict NINE. The Best Picture category can fluctuate between 5 and 10 nominees, but that seems to be the magic number. I had The Florida Project in, but it was 8th out of my 8 predictions in likelihood so no big surprise there. Also not surprising is Darkest Hour getting in. A bit more so is the inclusion of Phantom Thread, which did far better this morning than I or almost anyone else figured.
Best Director
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread), Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water), Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird), Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk), Jordan Peele (Get Out)
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: As mentioned above, the surprise here is Anderson’s nod for Phantom. Hard to believe but this is Nolan’s first nomination for direction. I had Martin McDonagh’s work in Three Billboards included. Worth noting: it’s happened, but it’s rare for a movie to win Best Picture without their maker being recognized. This could fuel even more talk that The Shape of Water is the front-runner in the big race.
Best Actor
Nominees: Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name), Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread), Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out), Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: One of the major questions going into this morning is whether recent allegations could prevent James Franco’s nod for The Disaster Artist. We may never know the answer to that fully, but it was expected he’d be a safe inclusion until then and he missed out. In his place – Mr. Washington, nominated for the second year in a row. In short: this is Oldman’s race to lose and it’s highly doubtful he will.
Best Actress
Nominees: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water), Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Margot Robbie (I, Tonya), Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird), Meryl Streep (The Post)
How I Did: 5/5
Analysis: For quite some time, this has seemed like the five for Actress and it panned out that way.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project), Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water), Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World), Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: Plummer got in for his highly publicized role after taking over for Kevin Spacey at very short notice over my prediction of Armie Hammer in Call Me by Your Name.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Mary J. Blige (Mudbound), Allison Janney (I, Tonya), Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread), Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird), Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: The Phantom love continued with Manville’s inclusion over my prediction for Hong Chau in Downsizing.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Call Me by Your Name, The Disaster Artist, Logan, Molly’s Game, Mudbound
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: In a bit of a surprise to me, Logan became the first superhero flick to get a writing nomination. I had Wonder in instead.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: The Big Sick, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: I went with I, Tonya over The Big Sick, but this certainly was no shocker. Unlike several prognosticators, I did correctly leave Sick out of the Best Picture race and this marks its sole nod.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: The Boss Baby, The Breadwinner, Coco, Ferdinand, Loving Vincent
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: People love that Boss Baby apparently. It got in over my projected The Girl Without Hands. This is an easy winner to predict – Pixar’s Coco.
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: A Fantastic Woman, The Insult, Loveless, On Body and Soul, The Square
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: Golden Globe winner In the Fade and Foxtrot (which some saw as a potential winner) missed the cut. In their place: Soul and Square.
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees: Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Faces Places, Icarus, Last Men in Aleppo, Strong Island
How I Did: 2/5
Analysis: Welp… there always seem to be that category where I whiff and get 2 out of 5 (last year it was Production Design). This year it’s the docs, where Jane (which many saw as a front-runner), City of Ghosts, and Long Strange Trip missed out in favor of Abacus, Aleppo, and Island.
Best Film Editing
Nominees: Baby Driver, Dunkirk, I, Tonya, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
How I Did: 5/5
Analysis: Besides Actress, this is my only other perfect category.
Best Cinematography
Nominees: Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Mudbound, The Shape of Water
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: Rachel Morrison made some Oscar history by becoming the first female nominated in this category for Mudbound. I predicted The Post over Darkest Hour.
Best Production Design
Nominees: Beauty and the Beast, Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: Wouldn’t you know it? Here’s one race where I had Phantom Thread in and it didn’t make it. Beauty got in instead.
Best Costume Design
Nominees: Beauty and the Beast, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Victoria and Abdul
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: I went with Murder on the Orient Express, but Darkest Hour prevailed. This should be a rather easy victory for Phantom (and perhaps its only).
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: Darkest Hour, Victoria and Abdul, Wonder
How I Did: 2/3
Analysis: Victoria over I, Tonya. Look for Gary Oldman’s transformation to Churchill in Darkest Hour to be the victor.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: Blade Runner 2049, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Kong: Skull Island, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, War for the Planet of the Apes
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: Dunkirk and The Shape of Water were my misses with Guardians and Kong filling in.
Best Sound Editing
Nominees: Baby Driver, Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: Turns out I should have predicted The Shape of Water in both sound categories. I had War for the Planet of the Apes instead here.
Best Sound Mixing
Nominees: Baby Driver, Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: The sound races matched this year with Star Wars in over my predicted The Greatest Showman.
Best Original Score
Nominees: Dunkirk, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: I expected John Williams to be recognized, but for The Post instead of Star Wars. Also had Darkest Hour here and not Three Billboards.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Mighty River” from Mudbound, “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name, “Remember Me” from Coco, “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall, “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: “The Mystery of Love” got in over “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit.
And that leaves the final official breakdown of films and number of nominations to this:
13 Nominations
The Shape of Water
8 Nominations
Dunkirk
7 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6 Nominations
Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread
5 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049, Lady Bird
4 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name, Get Out, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3 Nominations
Baby Driver, I, Tonya
2 Nominations
Beauty and the Beast, Coco, The Post, Victoria and Abdul
1 Nomination
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, All the Money in the World, The Big Sick, The Boss Baby, The Breadwinner, The Disaster Artist, Faces Places, A Fantastic Woman, Ferdinand, The Florida Project, The Greatest Showman, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Icarus, The Insult, Kong: Skull Island, Last Men in Aleppo, Logan, Loveless, Loving Vincent, Marshall, Molly’s Game, On Body and Soul, Roman J. Israel, Esq., The Square, Strong Island, War for the Planet of the Apes, Wonder
I’ll have a post up either later tonight or tomorrow with my initial round of predicted winners! Until then…
For over four months, I have been making weekly Oscar predictions and it all comes down to this Tuesday morning when they are at last revealed. These are my FINAL predictions along with a first and second alternate in each category.
Tuesday on the blog – I’ll have results on how I did with reaction to the nominations in general. Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
1st Alternate – I, Tonya
2nd Alternate – The Big Sick
Best Director
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
1st Alternate – Steven Spielberg, The Post
2nd Alternate – Sean Baker, The Florida Project
Best Actor
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
1st Alternate – Tom Hanks, The Post
2nd Alternate – Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Best Actress
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
1st Alternate – Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
2nd Alternate – Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
1st Alternate – Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name
2nd Alternate – Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
1st Alternate – Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
2nd Alternate – Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
Wonder
1st Alternate – Victoria and Abdul
2nd Alternate – Wonderstruck
Best Original Screenplay
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
1st Alternate – The Big Sick
2nd Alternate – The Florida Project
Best Animated Feature
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
The Girl Without Hands
Loving Vincent
1st Alternate – The LEGO Batman Movie
2nd Alternate – Cars 3
Best Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman
Foxtrot
The Insult
In the Fade
Loveless
1st Alternate – The Square
2nd Alternate – The Wound
Best Documentary Feature
City of Ghosts
Faces Places
Icarus
Jane
Long Strange Trip
1st Alternate – Strong Island
2nd Alternate – Last Men in Aleppo
Best Film Editing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
1st Alternate – The Post
2nd Alternate – Get Out
Best Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Post
The Shape of Water
1st Alternate – Darkest Hour
2nd Alternate – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Production Design
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
1st Alternate – Beauty and the Beast
2nd Alternate – Murder on the Orient Express
Best Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast
Murder on the Orient Express
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul
1st Alternate – The Post
2nd Alternate – The Beguiled
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Wonder
1st Alternate – Bright
2nd Alternate – Victoria and Abdul
Best Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
1st Alternate – Okja
2nd Alternate – Kong: Skull Island
Best Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
1st Alternate – The Shape of Water
2nd Alternate – The Greatest Showman
Best Sound Mixing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Greatest Showman
The Shape of Water
1st Alternate – Star Wars: The Lat Jedi
2nd Alternate – Beauty and the Beast
Best Original Score
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
1st Alternate – Victoria and Abdul
2nd Alternate – Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Original Song
“It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit
“Mighty River” from Mudbound
“Remember Me” from Coco
“Stand Up for Something” from Marshall
“This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
1st Alternate – “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast
2nd Alternate – “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name
And that leaves the final predicted list of nominations for each picture:
13 Nominations
The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
Dunkirk
7 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5 Nominations
Lady Bird, I, Tonya, Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Get Out, Phantom Thread, Darkest Hour, The Post, Mudbound
3 Nominations
Baby Driver
2 Nominations
The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, Wonder, Coco, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, War for the Planet of the Apes, The Greatest Showman
1 Nomination
Downsizing, Molly’s Game, Beauty and the Beast, Murder on the Orient Express, Victoria and Abdul, Detroit, Marshall, The Breadwinner, Ferdinand, The Girl Without Hands, Loving Vincent, A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot, The Insult, In the Fade, Loveless, City of Ghosts, Faces Places, Icarus, Jane, Long Strange Trip
And there you have it, folks! I’ll have reaction up Tuesday…
