Tag: Robert Pattinson

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    April 17-19 Box Office Predictions

    Lee Cronin’s The Mummy will attempt to scare up decent business as the weekend’s major new wide release, but The Super Mario Galaxy Movie looks to rule the charts for a third frame. You can peruse my detailed rap on the reboot of The Mummy franchise here:

    Lee Cronin’s The Mummy Box Office Prediction

    My projection for the newcomer likely puts it in a battle for second place with the fifth weekend of Project Hail Mary. I’m looking for both to land in the mid to higher teens and I’ll give the latter a slight edge for a third weekend in the runner-up position. Warner Bros. would love for Cronin’s horror version of The Mummy to hit $20M+, but I’m skeptical.

    As for Mario, it should have no trouble scoring the trifecta atop the box office mountain with earnings between $35-40 million. Its streak in the top spot should end in weekend #4 with musical biopic Michael slated to beat it.

    Holdovers romances The Drama and You, Me & Tuscany should fill out the rest of the top five and here’s how I envision it shaking out:

    1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

    Predicted Gross: $38.4 million

    2. Project Hail Mary

    Predicted Gross: $17.9 million

    3. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy

    Predicted Gross: $17.2 million

    4. The Drama

    Predicted Gross: $6 million

    5. You, Me & Tuscany

    Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

    Box Office Results (April 10-12)

    The Super Mario Galaxy Movie didn’t hold as well as 2023 predecessor The Super Mario Bros. Movie, but its 48% decline was still commendable. The Illumination Entertainment sequel took in $68 million, falling below my generous $79.1 million prediction. In two weeks, the total has soared to $307 million.

    Project Hail Mary eased only 24% in second with $24.1 million, ahead of my $20.6 million forecast. The sci-fi blockbuster stands at $256 million after four weeks.

    The Drama with Zendaya and Robert Pattinson was third, with a solid 39% dip to $8.7 million. That’s on track with my $8.5 million call resulting in a two-week take of $30 million.

    You, Me & Tuscany was fourth as the romantic comedy with Halle Bailey and Regé-Jean Page stalled with $7.7 million. I had it making more at $11.2 million.

    Finally, Hoppers was fifth with $4.1 million (I said $3.6 million) as the Pixar effort jumped to $157 million after six weeks.

    And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

    April 10-12 Box Office Predictions

    After a potent start over the Easter frame, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie should easily rule the box office world yet again. You, Me & Tuscany is the only wide release newcomer likely to crack the top 5 and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

    You, Me & Tuscany Box Office Prediction

    Tuscany, the picturesque rom-com with Halle Bailey and Regé-Jean Page is a little bit of a mystery. It could bottom out in the high single digits or manage teens. I’m splitting the difference for a third place showing in the low double digits.

    Mario Galaxy nearly rose to the opening earnings of 2023 predecessor The Super Mario Bros. Movie, but fell a bit short for what was still a terrific premiere (more on that below). Part 1 took in over $90 million in its sophomore outing and I’ve got this not reaching those heights.

    Project Hail Mary should stay strong in second place and might witness the lowest percentage drop of the holdovers.

    The Drama with Zendaya and Robert Pattinson opened in line with expectations. With a B Cinemascore grade (which is so-so), it could see a decline in the 50% range. However, I suspect it may ease in the lower 40s.

    Hoppers should round out the top five and here’s I see it shaking out:

    1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

    Predicted Gross: $79.1 million

    2. Project Hail Mary

    Predicted Gross: $20.6 million

    3. You, Me & Tuscany

    Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

    4. The Drama

    Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

    5. Hoppers

    Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

    Box Office Results (April 3-5)

    Family audiences were certainly over the moon for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie as it hauled in $131.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $190.8 million since its Wednesday bow. While that doesn’t match the $204 million that 2023’s original banked, it shows that this franchise is on firm footing. The respective grosses eclipsed my predictions of $126.5 million and $171.2 million.

    Project Hail Mary dropped to second after two weeks in first place with $31.7 million, a tad shy of my $35.2 million forecast. The sci-fi tale boasts $218 million in its coffers after three weeks.

    The Drama, as mentioned, was on par with most estimates at $14.3 million in third. I thought it might climb a little higher with a $16.7 million call. It will be interesting to see if it fades quickly or has some staying power.

    Hoppers was fourth with $5.8 million as the Disney/Pixar animated flick had its most significant percentage drop thanks to Mario and Luigi. I had it at $8 million. The five-week cumulation is $149 million.

    Fifth place went to Reminders of Him with $2.2 million (I said $2.9 million) and $45 million after four weeks.

    And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

    You, Me & Tuscany Box Office Prediction

    The Little Mermaid star Halle Bailey and Bridgerton lead Regé-Jean Page headline You, Me & Tuscany on April 10th. Universal hopes rom com fans check into the Kat Coiro (Marry Me) directed effort with a supporting cast featuring Marco Calvani, Lorenzo de Moor, Aziza Scott, Nia Vardolos, and Isabella Ferrari.

    Tuscany could benefit from a lack of competition for genre fans. While The Drama with Zendaya and Robert Pattinson will be in its second frame, I certainly wouldn’t call that your traditional romantic comedy. A worst case opening might be in line with Coiro’s Marry Me with Jennifer Lopez and Owen Wilson. It premiered to just under $8 million during a busy Christmas season.

    This should fare better and I’ll say it manages to cross double digits.

    You, Me & Tuscany opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million

    Oscar Predictions: The Drama

    Zendaya and Robert Pattinson bring The Drama to multiplexes this weekend with Kristoffer Borgli (Dream Scenario) directing. As a couple whose wedding faces unanticipated challenges, the leads are looking for a large female audience over the Easter frame. Mamoudou Athie, Alana Haim, Hailey Gates, and Zoē Winters costar.

    The two leads are gearing up for appearances over the next couple of years in their Spider-Man, Dune (they’ll appear in the third feature together), and Batman franchises. Despite various acclaimed performances in non-franchise fare, neither Zendaya or Pattinson have found an awards vehicle.

    The Drama is unlikely to be that. While it has 81% on Rotten Tomatoes, the 59 on Metacritic indicates the mixed reaction that has greeted it. I’m not seeing a scenario where this becomes an Oscar player. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    April 3-5 Box Office Predictions

    The Super Mario Galaxy Movie should play to domestic and worldwide domination over the Easter holiday as April dawns. Illumination Entertainment’s animated sequel debuts alongside Zendaya and Robert Pattinson in The Drama. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

    The Super Mario Galaxy Movie Box Office Prediction
    The Drama Box Office Prediction

    Three Easters back, The Super Mario Bros. Movie blew past expectations with nearly $150 million from Friday to Sunday and over $200 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. Galaxy is smartly following the same release pattern. While I don’t think the results will be quite as much, it should surpass Project Hail Mary as the year’s largest premiere.

    Speaking of Mary, there’s something about its second weekend that was remarkable (more on that below). The sci-fi tale with Ryan Gosling should have no trouble being strong in the runner-up position after two weeks on top.

    As for The Drama, it’s more of a question mark. It looks to draw upon the star appeal of its young leads. I have it earning a tad more than Zendaya’s Challengers from 2024 in the mid teens for a third place showing.

    Holdovers Hoppers and Reminders of Him should round out the top five and here’s how I have it rolling out:

    1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

    Predicted Gross: $126.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $171.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

    2. Project Hail Mary

    Predicted Gross: $35.2 million

    3. The Drama

    Predicted Gross: $16.7 million

    4. Hoppers

    Predicted Gross: $8 million

    5. Reminders of Him

    Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

    Box Office Results (March 27-29)

    Amazon MGM had a banner sophomore frame with Project Hail Mary. After launching to $80 million, the acclaimed adaptation of Andy Weir’s novel declined a meager 33% to $54 million for a two-week haul of $163 million. Eclipsing my $44.8 million prediction, a domestic end run of over $300 million appears to be happening as the crowd favorite builds Oscar steam.

    Hoppers remained in second with $12.1 million, right in line with my $12 million call. Disney/Pixar’s original story has risen to $138 million after four weeks.

    Comedic horror entry They Will Kill You was DOA in its unveiling. With $4.9 million in third, the Warner Bros release failed to hit my $6.3 million forecast. Look for it to fade fast.

    Reminders of Him was fourth with $4.7 million, on target with my $4.3 million estimate. The romantic drama has made a respectable $41 million after three weeks.

    Dhurandhar: The Revenge was right behind in fifth with $4.6 million and I incorrectly had it outside of the high five. The total is $22 million after two weeks.

    Also in its second outing, Ready or Not 2: Here I Come fell 54% to $4.1 million (I said $4.2 million). The underwhelming sequel sits at $16 million.

    And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

    The Drama Box Office Prediction

    Taking a break from their high profile franchises (albeit briefly), Zendaya and Robert Pattinson headline the relationship tale The Drama on April 3rd. Written and directed by Kristoffer Borgli (Dream Scenario) and described as both a dark comedy and romantic thriller, it will try and find a large female audience over the Easter holiday. Mamoudou Athie, Alana Haim, Hailey Gates, and Zoë Winters provide support.

    The film’s leads will be seen together in the summer via The Odyssey and this December in Dune: Part Three. Those will certainly outgross this one. However, The Drama has breakout potential due to its star power and counter programming ability while The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary dominate the charts.

    A worst case scenario might be double digits or low teens and failing to match the $15 million that Zendaya’s Challengers opened with two years ago. A dream scenario would be anything beyond $20 million. I think that’s achievable, but I’ll project mid to higher teens.

    The Drama opening weekend prediction: $16.7 million

    For my The Super Mario Galaxy Movie prediction, click here:

    The Super Mario Galaxy Movie Box Office Prediction

    November 14-16 Box Office Predictions

    Blogger’s Update (11/12): I am downgrading my The Running Man estimate from $27.6 million to $19.6 million as reviews and word-of-mouth have stalled momentum; I am downgrading my Keeper estimate from $6.5 million to $3.2 million

    The Running Man looks steal the box office crown as heist threequel Now You See Me: Now You Don’t and horror pic Keeper debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

    The Running Man Box Office Prediction
    Now You See Me: Now You Don’t Box Office Prediction
    Keeper Box Office Prediction

    Based on the Stephen King novel, sci-fi action satire The Running Man also serves as a remake of the 1987 pic with Glen Powell taking over starring duties from Arnold Schwarzenegger. I don’t think it reaches the heights of Predator: Badlands from this past weekend (more on that below), but it should place 1st in the low to mid 20s.

    Now You See Me: Now You Don’t includes Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Harrelson, and Morgan Freeman reprising their roles from 2013 and 2016 predecessors. That’s a lengthy layover from part 2 to 3 and the second one didn’t match the original in terms of cash. I anticipate the drop-off will continue and I have See in third.

    Keeper could overperform as horror titles often do, but I’m going mid single digits for a fourth place showing for the latest genre effort from the prolific Osgood Perkins.

    It will be interesting to see the sophomore frame percentage decline for Predator: Badlands. 2010’s Predators and 2018’s The Predator each debuted in the mid 20s (far below this one). They plummeted 72% and 63% respectively in their follow-up outings. The film in the franchise that performed similarly to Badlands (2004’s AVP: Alien Vs. Predator) saw a 68% dip. However, I don’t see this falling that far due to its A- Cinemascore (the strongest of the lot). Mid 50s seems more likely.

    Regretting You, which showed impressive staying power last weekend, should round out the top five and here’s how I see it shaking out:

    1. The Running Man

    Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

    2. Predator: Badlands

    Predicted Gross: $18.2 million

    3. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t

    Predicted Gross: $17.1 million

    4. Regretting You

    Predicted Gross: $5 million

    6. Keeper

    Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

    Box Office Results (November 7-9)

    It took a nearly 40-year-old franchise to wake up the box office and showed that the series wasn’t over the hill as Predator: Badlands amassed $40 million. Solid word-of-mouth and positive reviews helped propel it to the highest start of the nine pictures when not adjusting for inflation. This easily eclipsed my $27.6 million prediction.

    Regretting You, as mentioned, slid a teensy 15% in weekend #3 to $6.6 million compared to my $4.8 million call. The romantic drama is plugging along with $38 million thus far.

    Black Phone 2 dropped from 1st to 3rd as it received $5.1 million, in line with my $4.6 million projection. The sequel has taken in $70 million after four weeks.

    The inspirational early 20th century set drama Sarah’s Oil, which includes Zachary Levi among its cast, was my surprise of the weekend. It placed fourth with $4.2 million and I didn’t do a guesstimate. Scoring a rare A+ Cinemascore grade, Oil could hold up well in the coming weeks.

    Historical courtroom drama Nuremberg with Oscar winners Russell Crowe and Rami Malek rounded out the top five with $3.8 million, managing to outdo my $3 million take.

    Bugonia was sixth in weekend #2 at $3.4 million (ahead of my $2.7 million prediction) for $12 million after two weeks of wide release.

    Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc finished seventh with $3.4 million (I said $2.9 million) as the anime hit stands at $37 million after three weeks.

    Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson’s drama Die, My Love debuted in eighth with $2.6 million, on pace with my $2.5 million estimate.

    Finally, boxing biopic Christy with Sydney Sweeney was KO’d in 11th with just $1.3 million. I was more generous at $2.2 million.

    And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

    98th Academy Awards Predictions: July 13th Edition

    While there’s not a whole lot of movement with my Oscar predictions in the past ten days, there are notable changes in Actress and Supporting Actress.

    In Actress, Amanda Seyfried’s work in Ann Lee surpasses Jennifer Lawrence from Die, My Love. A switch-up in Supporting Actress now has Sentimental Value generating 10 nominations with Inga Ibsfotter Lilleass in and Angelina LookingGlass (The Rivals of Amziah King) out.

    Yorgos Lanthimos’s Bugonia is bumped to the top spot in Adapted Screenplay over Hamnet and you can read all the movement below!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Sentimental Value (PR: 12) (E)

    3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

    6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Hamnet (PR: 7) (-3)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)

    14. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Rental Family (PR: 20) (+5)

    16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 18) (+2)

    17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 16) (-1)

    18. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (-3)

    19. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (E)

    20. Ann Lee (PR: 22) (+2)

    21. Die, My Love (PR: 21) (E)

    22. The Life of Chuck (PR: 23) (+1)

    23. F1 (PR: 17) (-6)

    24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (E)

    25. The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Kiss of the Spider Woman

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 11) (+1)

    11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Edward Berger, The Ballad of a Small Player

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Sydney Sweeney, Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: 13) (+2)

    12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Lucy Liu, Rosemead

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

    2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (+2)

    11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-3)

    14. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

    5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (+1)

    11. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 7) (-4)

    12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 14) (+1)

    14. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (-5)

    Dropped Out:

    Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 12) (+3)

    10. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

    11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (+3)

    12. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-4)

    14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love

    Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Rental Family (PR: 11) (+3)

    9. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Ann Lee (PR: 10) (E)

    11. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (-2)

    12. Ella McCay (PR: 12) (E)

    13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+2)

    14. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Is This Thing On? (PR: 13) (-2)

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Bugonia (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Hamnet (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

    11. Die, My Love (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Late Fame (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Train Dreams (PR: 10) (-3)

    14. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Hedda

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

    3. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sirât (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Sound of Falling (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (E)

    10. All That’s Left of You (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Love That Remains

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Arco (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Elio (PR: 3) (E)

    4. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. In Your Dreams (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Scarlet (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. KPOP Demon Hunters (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Animal Farm (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

    2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Seeds (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Deaf President Now! (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Alabama Solution (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Timestamp (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    The Six Billion Dollar Man

    The Librarians

    Best Casting

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-4)

    7. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-4)

    Dropped Out:

    Kiss of the Spider Woman

    Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

    4. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

    5. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. F1 (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Sentimental Value

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Snow White (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Mother Mary (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    One Battle After Another

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. F1 (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    The Rivals of Amziah King

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. 28 Years Later (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Bugonia

    Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Bugonia (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. F1 (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Marty Supreme (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    The Rivals of Amziah King

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)

    4. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (2nd song) (PR: 6) (E)

    7. “Golden” from KPOP Demon Hunters (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. “Relentless” from Diane Warren Relentless (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. TBD from Mother Mary (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. “Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

    5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Marty Supreme

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Warfare (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Superman (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Kiss of the Spider Woman

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 8) (E)

    9. F1 (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Mickey 17 (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Sinners

    And that works out to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:

    14 Nomnations

    Sinners

    10 Nominations

    Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good

    8 Nominations

    After the Hunt, Frankenstein

    7 Nominations

    Marty Supreme

    6 Nominations

    Bugonia

    5 Nominations

    Hamnet

    4 Nominations

    Jay Kelly, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    3 Nominations

    Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident

    2 Nominatons

    Kiss of the Spider Woman, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2

    1 Nomination

    2000 Meters to Andrivka, Ann Lee, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, F1, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, In Your Dreams, A Magnificent Life, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, The Rivals of Amziah King, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine. Superman

    98th Academy Awards Predictions: July 3rd Edition

    We are officially past the midway point of 2025 and that’s cause to expand my Oscar predictions to all feature length categories for the 98th Academy Awards!

    I would agree with most prognosticators that there’s only one already released film that is guaranteed a slot among the BP nominees – Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. I would also say Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, which screened at Cannes and took the Grand Prix (second place), has punched its ticket. As for the Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident, I have it clinging to a BP nod.

    Obviously many of the BP hopefuls will elevate or diminish their statuses when festival season kicks off in approximately two months via Toronto, Telluride, and Venice. There is one significant change in my BP selections. For several weeks, I’ve had Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another and Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos on the outside looking in. These are two of the higher profile features awaiting their unveiling. I doubt both miss the cut and I went back and forth on which one to include. I’ve gone with Bugonia and that puts Avatar: Fire and Ash on the outside looking in. The Bugonia bump also puts Jesse Plemons in my Best Actor quintet with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) dropping.

    Today’s post gives my first ever preview of the Academy’s new race: Best Casting. As with some other categories, I have Sinners currently leading the way. In fact, my projections have the vampire saga racking up 14 nods. That would tie it with All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land for the most mentions of any picture in Oscar history.

    As in past years, I’m keeping my BP mentions at 25 possibilities with directing, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions at 15 hopefuls. For all others, I’m giving you 10 contenders. These numbers will dwindle as the categories take shape down the line.

    Here’s my first look at all 21 feature length races!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

    3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)

    6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Bugonia (PR: 12) (+4)

    9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 10) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-3)

    13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)

    14. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (+1)

    16. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 18) (+2)

    17. F1 (PR: 24) (+7)

    18. A House of Dynamite (PR: 21) (+3)

    19. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (E)

    20. Rental Family (PR: 20) (E)

    21. Die, My Love (PR: 17) (-4)

    22. Ann Lee (PR: 23) (+1)

    23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (-9)

    24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 22) (+2)

    25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Smashing Machine

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+4)

    7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (+3)

    9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)

    11. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (-4)

    12. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Edward Berger, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash

    Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

    12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. Sydney Sweeney, Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 12) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

    2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+4)

    5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (+2)

    10. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Wumni Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

    Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (-2)

    4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (+4)

    10. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+4)

    11. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-3)

    12. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (-3)

    15. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Akira Emoto, Rental Family

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sentimental Value

    2. After the Hunt

    3. Jay Kelly

    4. Sinners

    5. Marty Supreme

    Other Possibilities:

    6. It Was Just an Accident

    7. Sorry, Baby

    8. The Rivals of Amziah King

    9. The Secret Agent

    10. Ann Lee

    11. Rental Family

    12. Ella McCay

    13. Is This Thing On?

    14. Nouvelle Vague

    15. A House of Dynamite

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Hamnet

    2. Bugonia

    3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

    4. One Battle After Another

    5. No Other Choice

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Frankenstein

    7. Wicked: For Good

    8. The Life of Chuck

    9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    10. Train Dreams

    11. Die, My Love

    12. Late Fame

    13. Highest 2 Lowest

    14. Hedda

    15. The Smashing Machine

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sentimental Value

    2. It Was Just an Accident

    3. The Secret Agent

    4. No Other Choice

    5. The President’s Cake

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sirát

    7. Sound of Falling

    8. Left-Handed Girl

    9. Nouvelle Vague

    10. The Love That Remains

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zootopia 2

    2. Arco

    3. Elio

    4. Scarlet

    5. In Your Dreams

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Animal Farm

    7. A Magnificent Life

    8. Little Amélie or The Character of Rain

    9. KPop Demon Hunters

    10. Ne Zha 2

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Perfect Neighbor

    2. Seeds

    3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka

    4. Cutting Through Rocks

    5. Deaf President Now!

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin

    7. Apocalypse in the Tropics

    8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5

    9. The Six Billion Dollar Man

    10. The Librarians

    Best Casting

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners

    2. After the Hunt

    3. Wicked: For Good

    4. Sentimental Value

    5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jay Kelly

    7. Marty Supreme

    8. The Rivals of Amziah King

    9. Kiss of the Spider Woman

    10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners

    2. Frankenstein

    3. Bugonia

    4. Marty Supreme

    5. The Rivals of Amziah King

    Other Possibilities:

    6. F1

    7. Sentimental Value

    8. Nouvelle Vague

    9. Avatar: Fire and Ash

    10. Wicked: For Good

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked: For Good

    2. Frankenstein

    3. Sinners

    4. Kiss of the Spider Woman

    5. Hamnet

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ann Lee

    7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    8. Mother Mary

    9. Snow White

    10. One Battle After Another

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners

    2. Marty Supreme

    3. Sentimental Value

    4. Bugonia

    5. F1

    Other Possibilities:

    6. After the Hunt

    7. Wicked: For Good

    8. One Battle After Another

    9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    10. The Rivals of Amziah King

    Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Frankenstein

    2. Wicked: For Good

    3. Sinners

    4. The Smashing Machine

    5. Kiss of the Spider Woman

    Other Possibilities:

    6. 28 Years Later

    7. Bugonia

    8. Untitled Christy Martin Biopic

    9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    10. Wolf Man

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners

    2. Bugonia

    3. After the Hunt

    4. Frankenstein

    5. Wicked: For Good

    Other Possibilities:

    6. One Battle After Another

    7. F1

    8. Sentimental Value

    9. The Rivals of Amziah King

    10. Marty Supreme

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. TBD from Wicked: For Good

    2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners

    3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless

    4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    5. TBD from Zootopia 2

    Other Possibilities:

    6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song)

    7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

    8. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White

    9. “Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie

    10. TBD from Mother Mary

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked: For Good

    2. Frankenstein

    3. Sinners

    4. Avatar: Fire and Ash

    5. Kiss of the Spider Woman

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Bugonia

    7. One Battle After Another

    8. Marty Supreme

    9. The Phoenician Scheme

    10. Ann Lee

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. F1

    2. Sinners

    3. Wicked: For Good

    4. Avatar: Fire and Ash

    5. Warfare

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

    8. Kiss of the Spider Woman

    9. Frankenstein

    10. Superman

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

    2. Wicked: For Good

    3. Superman

    4. Frankenstein

    5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

    7. F1

    8. How to Train Your Dragon

    9. Tron: Ares

    10. Sinners

    Here’s my initial take on how many nominations the various pictures will receive:

    14 Nominations

    Sinners

    11 Nominations

    Wicked: For Good

    9 Nominations

    Sentimental Value

    8 Nominations

    After the Hunt

    7 Nominations

    Frankenstein, Marty Supreme

    6 Nominatons

    Bugonia

    4 Nominations

    Hamnet, Jay Kelly

    3 Nominations

    Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    2 Nominatons

    F1, No Other Choice, The Rivals of Amziah King, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2

    1 Nomination

    2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Deaf President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Die, My Love, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, In Your Dreams, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Warfare