One of the biggest pieces of the Oscar predicting puzzle came into greater focus today with the review embargo having lifted for Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey. The fantasy based on Homer’s ancient epic debuts this weekend with grand box office hopes for Universal. It has long been anticipated to be a major awards player with Matt Damon leading a massive cast that includes (deep breath) Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Robert Pattinson, Lupita Nyong’o, Samantha Morton, Zendaya, Charlize Theron, Benny Safdie, Jon Bernthal, John Leguizamo, Bill Irwin, Himesh Patel, Corey Hawkins, Mia Goth, Travis Scott, and Elliot Page.
The reported $250 million production is Nolan’s hotly awaited follow-up to 2023’s Oppenheimer. That nearly billion dollar grossing biopic was an Oscar juggernaut with 13 nominations and 7 victories including Best Picture, Director, Actor (Cillian Murphy), and Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.). The Odyssey seeks to become Nolan’s fourth feature in contention for BP joining 2010’s Inception, 2017’s Dunkirk, and the aforementioned Oppenheimer.
Let’s dispense with the drama. With 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 88 Metacritic, The Odyssey‘s journey to a Best Picture nomination looks assured and it is a threat to win. Same goes for Nolan’s direction and a number of other categories including Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. That’s 11 noms in the bag already. Makeup and Hairstyling and Original Song (a new tune by Travis Scott and James Blake closes the three-hour experience) are possibilities with the latter perhaps a long shot.
As for the actors, some of my early predictions may have to shift. For weeks, I’ve had Matt Damon on the inside in fifth or on the outside looking in at sixth. That forecast seems accurate though I’m leaning toward him making the cut in what should be a crowded field. Obviously that could change as various works from competitors like Tom Cruise (Digger), John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine), and Pedro Pascal (Behemoth!) are screened. It would be Damon’s fourth acting nod behind Good Will Hunting, Invictus, and The Martian if he gets in.
Gunning for her third attempt at gold is Anne Hathaway behind 2008’s Rachel Getting Married and a Supporting Actress victory for 2012’s Les Miserables. The buzz indicates that her supporting work is the most assured of inclusion. I’ve her outside of the top 5 most of the time in the past couple of months. Look for that to change in my next round of predictions this weekend.
As for Supporting Actor, there was some chatter for Robert Pattinson and Tom Holland. If either get in, I’d say Pattinson is more likely than Holland. There’s also lots of love for John Leguizamo, but Universal would need to make a conscientious effort to campaign for him. Same goes for Samantha Morton in Supporting Actress. She’s getting raves. However, her performance is limited to one scene and Hathaway may get the sole push.
In a best case scenario, The Odyssey could surpass Oppenheimer‘s nomination haul and even get in the range of the record-setting 16 that Sinners received last year. I suspect my next projections will give it 13-15. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Adapted from Homer’s ancient Greek works, The Odyssey looks to make a lot of dough when it opens July 17th. Undoubtedly one of 2026’s most anticipated releases, Christopher Nolan directs the fantasy action epic with Matt Damon headlining a packed cast. That includes Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Robert Pattinson, Lupita Nyong’o, Zendaya, Charlize Theron, Benny Safdie, Jon Bernthal, John Leguizamo, Bill Irwin, Samantha Morton, Himesh Patel, Corey Hawkins, Mia Goth, Travis Scott, and Elliot Page.
The first feature to be shot entirely on 70 mm IMAX cameras, showings on those giant screens are already sold out or filling up for the three-hour experience. Nolan’s stock is incredibly high right now. This is his follow-up to the 2023 Oscar juggernaut Oppenheimer which nearly grossed a billion dollars worldwide. No other director is more bankable than him.
With known source material, a spirited marketing campaign, and a plum mid-July release date that Nolan favors (it’s when Oppenheimer, The Dark Knight, and The Dark Knight Rises premiered), that should be a winning combo. Official reviews aren’t out yet, but early word-of-mouth is strong and it’s expected to be a major Oscar contender.
The Odyssey should surpass the $82.5 million that greeted Oppenheimer. I think it can get past $100 million even though I’m not buying the rosiest forecasts of $130 million or so (at least not yet).
The Odyssey opening weekend prediction: $106.2 million
Happy 250th birthday weekend, America! And what better way to celebrate than with fresh Oscar predictions now that we’ve surpassed the midway point of 2026. That means I’m expanding my forecasts from 8 categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies, the two screenplays contests) to all 21 races covering feature-length motion pictures.
This is the first glimpse at how many overall nominations I believe the hopefuls will generate. It arrives approximately two months before the fall festival season (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) kicks into gear. That trio of fests will undoubtedly alter the landscape of contenders and pretenders.
When I do my next predictions, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will be out. We will have a much better ide whether it deserves the perch atop Best Picture and Director and elsewhere. As soon as reviews drop, look for my individual Oscar Predictions post with the next full update likely arriving on July 19th.
I’ve put Inde Navarrette’s work in Obsession back in lead Actress as opposed to Supporting Actress. The studio could place it in either as we await word on their strategy. As of now, I feel her performance could materialize in both races. I’m also placing all performers from The Black Ball in supporting until that is clarified.
I’m keeping my BP listings at 25 and the seven top line races that I’ve previously covered at 15 possibilities. For the other competitions, I am listing 10 possibilities.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Obsession (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. All of a Sudden (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Behemoth! (PR: 16) (+4)
13. The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)
14. A Place in Hell (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Fatherland (PR: 15) (-1)
17. The Invite (PR: 17) (E)
18. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)
20. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (E)
21. Michael (PR: 24) (+3)
22. Josephine (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
24. Jack of Spades (PR: 22) (-2)
25. Werwulf (PR: 18) (-7)
Dropped Out:
Saturn Return
Club Kid
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)
4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)
7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (E)
8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)
14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Penélope Cruz, Bunker
Zendaya, The Drama
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)
7. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)
9. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (E)
11. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 13) (E)
14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball – moved to Supporting Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three
Hanns Zischler, Fatherland
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+7)
4. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (E)
12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (E)
14. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to lead Actress)
Gemma Chan, Josephine
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 13) (+4)
10. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actor
15. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Milo Quifes, The Black Ball
Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Obsession (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)
7. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Club Kid (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Primetime (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Fatherland (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)
15. The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saturn Return
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Invite (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Prima Facie (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Wildwood (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Minotaur (PR: 13) (-1)
15. A Long Winter (PR: 14) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball
2. Fjord
3. All of a Sudden
4. Minotuar
5. Coward
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland
7. Possible Love
8. Mimesis
9. Rose
10. The Beloved
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood
2. Toy Story 5
3. Ray Gunn
4. Tangles
5. Hoppers
Other Possibilities:
6. In Waves
7. Forgotten Island
8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
9. Iron Boy
10. Minions & Monsters
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem
2. Nuisance Bear
3. To Hold a Mountain
4. The History of Concrete
5. When a Witness Recants
Other Possibilities:
6. American Doctor
7. One in a Million
8. Time and Water
9. Rehearsals for a Revolution
10. Everybody to Kenmure Street
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. The Black Ball
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Digger
5. Michael
Other Possibilities:
6. Fjord
7. The Debut
8. Dune: Part Three
9. Cry to Heaven
10. Behemoth!
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Dune: Part Three
4. The Black Ball
5. Digger
Other Possibilities:
6. Cry to Heaven
7. Fatherland
8. Werwulf
9. Disclosure Day
10. Jack of Spades
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. The Black Ball
3. Sense and Sensibility
4. Cry to Heaven
5. Dune: Part Three
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2
8. Jack of Spades
9. Wuthering Heights
10. I Love Boosters
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. The Black Ball
3. Digger
4. Project Hail Mary
5. Wild Horse Nine
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three
7. Cry to Heaven
8. Fjord
9. Obsession
10. Behemoth!
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Digger
2. Werwulf
3. The Odyssey
4. Clayface
5. Michael
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball
7. Dune: Part Three
8. Cry to Heaven
9. The Bride!
10. Madden
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. The Black Ball
3. Project Hail Mary
4. Disclosure Day
5. Cry to Heaven
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three
7. Digger
8. Wild Horse Nine
9. Wildwood
10. The Social Reckoning
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5
2. TBD from The Black Ball
3. TBD from The Debut
4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad
Other Possibilities:
6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2
7. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights
8. TBD from Hexed
9. “Save the Day” from Hoppers
10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Dune: Part Three
4. The Black Ball
5. Cry to Heaven
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger
7. Werwulf
8. Jack of Spades
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth
10. Backrooms
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three
2. The Odyssey
3. Project Hail Mary
4. The Black Ball
5. Michael
Other Possibilities:
6. Disclosure Day
7. Cry to Heaven
8. Digger
9. Werwulf
10. Obsession
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three
2. Project Hail Mary
3. The Odyssey
4. Godzilla Minus Zero
5. Whalefall
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday
7. Disclosure Day
8. Wildwood
9. The End of Oak Street
10. The Sheep Detectives
And that works out to my inaugural tally showing these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
The Black Ball, The Odyssey
10 Nominations
Digger, White Horse Nine
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
6 Nominations
Dune: Part Three, Fjord
5 Nominations
The Debut
4 Nominations
Cry to Heaven
3 Nominations
Michael, Obsession
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
Clayface, Coward, Disclosure Day, Godzilla Minus Zero, The History of Concrete, Hoppers, The Invite, Minotaur, Nuisance Bear, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Werwulf, Whalefall, When a Witness Recants. Wildwood
As we move closer to knowing whether Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey deserves its placeholder #1 rankings in Best Picture and Director, we have seen some new trailers for consideration in the two weeks since my last update. I have said that you can’t judge a movie by its trailer, but we can look for clues about who the studio will focus on.
Jesse Eisenberg’s follow-up to A Real Pain (which won Kieran Culkin a Supporting Actor Oscar) is not titled No One Cares (which was rumored to be a working name). The first preview reveals it is called The Debut with hints that it’s a somewhat of two-hander between Julianne Moore and Paul Giamatti. That said, I still have Halle Bailey listed as a possibility in Supporting Actress.
We got our first glimpse of Georgia Oakley’s Sense and Sensibility with Daisy Edgar-Jones and Esmé Creed-Miles vying for noms. And we witnessed a Digger promotional ad that certainly indicated the studio will be all in on Tom Cruise.
Also in the past two weeks, Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day has proven to be a box office disappointment. In my estimation, its chances in BP and Emily Blunt in Best Actress have gone down.
Toy Story 5 also opened and while reviews were fine, many critics deemed it the weakest of the quintet. Unlike Toy Story 3 and like Toy Story 4, it should reserve a slot in Best Animated Feature but not Best Picture.
Finally, The Invite from Olivia Wilde opened in limited fashion before a nationwide rollout in July. Word-of-mouth is strong and I’m beginning to think it could at least manage an Adapted Screenplay nod… if not more.
You can read all the movement below including a new #1 in Best Actress and some serious shifts in Supporting Actress!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)
6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Obsession (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Place in Hell (PR: !3) (+2)
12. The Social Reckoning (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (+2)
14. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Fatherland (PR: 16) (+1)
16. Behemoth! (PR: 17) (+1)
17. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
18. Werwulf (PR: 18) (E)
19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 20) (+1)
20. Disclosure Day (PR: 14) (-6)
21. Josephine (PR: 21) (E)
22. Jack of Spades (PR: 19) (-3)
23. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Michael (PR: 23) (-1)
25. Club Kid (PR: 25) (E)
Dropped Out:
Being Heumann
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)
4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (E)
14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (E)
15. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Robert Eggers, Werwulf
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR 8) (+1)
8. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (E)
12. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (E)
13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)
14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: 14) (E)
15. Zendaya, The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Guitarricadelfuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Jordan Firstman, Club Kid
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 3) (-7)
11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Elizbeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (E)
15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 9) (+1)
9. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 8) (-5)
14. Milo Quifes, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Holland, The Odyssey
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven
Owen Cooper, Cry to Heaven
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Debut (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Obsession (PR: 6) (E)
7. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (E)
8. Club Kid (PR: 9) (E)
9. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York City (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (E)
11. Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Fatherland (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Primetime (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Saturn Return (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (PR: Not Ranked)
It’s been two weeks since my last round of predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting competitions. With mid-June upon us, I am now adding my first takes on the two screenplay derbies.
What’s changed in the last two weeks? In my estimation, Obsession has picked up considerable momentum with its astonishing box office performance. I am now vaulting the low-budget horror smash from #25 all the way into the BP lineup. Additionally, I am now thinking that Focus Features will slot Inde Navarrette and her buzzy performance to Supporting Actress and I’m placing her in my quintet all the way in second position.
While Obsession‘s fortunes have risen, I would say Disclosure Day from Steven Spielberg has taken a slight downturn. The sci-fi saga which debuted this weekend in line with financial expectations (though certainly not over them) will have to battle other blockbusters (Project Hail Mary, The Odyssey, Dune: Part Three) over the next several months for awards viability. It could still get in (and so could Emily Blunt in Actress). However, the non-gushing critical response and mixed audience reaction is a potential roadblock.
Trailers can be deceiving when evaluating a picture’s Oscar chances. Yet I have to admit that I found our first look at The Social Reckoning underwhelming and I dropped it from my BP lineup, putting it just on the outside looking in.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. No One Cares (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Obsession (PR: 25) (+15)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (-2)
12. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (E)
13. A Place in Hell (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (-2)
15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Fatherland (PR: 13) (-3)
17. Behemoth! (PR: 19) (+2)
18. Werwulf (PR: 16) (-2)
19. Jack of Spades (PR: 18) (-1)
20. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 17) (-3)
21. Josephine (PR: 23) (+2)
22. Saturn Return (PR: 24) (+2)
23. Michael (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Being Heumann (PR: 20) (-4)
25. Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Entertainment System is Down
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (E)
8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (E)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day
Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)
8. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)
14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to Supporting Actress)
Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 13) (+7)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 11) (E)
12. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 12) (E)
13. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 10 (-4)
15. Jordan Firstman, Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Javier Bardem, The Beloved
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead Actress)
3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (E)
11. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Scarlet Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Adele, Cry to Heaven
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)
12. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (-7)
It’s been over three weeks since I’ve updated my Oscar predictions in the six major categories of Picture, Director, and the four acting races. A little thing called the Cannes Film Festival happened in between. In the past few cycles, you can usually count on 2-3 films screened in the French Riviera to eventually make the Best Picture cut at the Academy Awards.
Some features like Na Hong-jin’s Hope and James Gray’s Paper Tiger saw their fortunes take a hit. I would say there are four titles that standing the best chance at finding themselves in the Oscar mix: Cristian Mingiu’s Fjord (which won the Palme d’Or), Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Fatherland from Pawel Pawlkowski, and especially The Black Ball from Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi. You can read my detailed prediction posts on the those Cannes titles and more on the blog from the past few days. There’s others that could gain momentum including Minotaur, Coward, and Club Kid.
Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day didn’t screen at Cannes, but is readying release on June 12th. Influencers who’ve seen it are highly positive. That said, it is a wise practice to wait until the real review embargo lapses to get a clear picture of its awards viability. For now, I have the movie, Spielberg, and Emily Blunt just on the outside looking in.
The horror flick Obsession drew rave critical reactions and fantastic box office numbers that are continuing to grow. This has truly opened the door for Inde Navarrette to snag an acting nod and, in a best case scenario, BP inclusion (still seems like a long shot but you never know). It’s a legit question as to whether Navarrette competes in lead Actress or Supporting Actress. For now, I’m slotting her as a possibility (though not yet a nominee) in the former. Focus Features will clear it up as some point though it might be a while.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have the next update available in mid-June!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Fjord (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. No One Cares (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)
12. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Fatherland (PR: 7) (-6)
14. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (+2)
15. A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Werwulf (PR: 15) (-1)
17. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 25) (+8)
18. Jack of Spades (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Behemoth! (PR: 23) (+4)
20. Being Heumann (PR: 21) (+1)
21. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Michael (PR: 24) (+2)
23. Josephine (PR: 17) (-6)
24. Saturn Return (PR: 18) (-6)
25. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hope
Paper Tiger
A Long Winter
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Javier Calva and Javier Ambrossi, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Na Hong-jin, Hope
James Gray, Paper Tiger
Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: Not Raked)
8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Penélope Cruz, Bunker
Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 15) (+3)
13. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York City (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (-9)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning
Adam Driver, Paper Tiger
Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Adele, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 9) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down
Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter
Gemma Chan, Josephine
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)
7. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: 15) (+8)
My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.
The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.
In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.
Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.
The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.
We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.
You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)
5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)
13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)
15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)
16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)
17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)
18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)
19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)
Lee Cronin’s The Mummy will attempt to scare up decent business as the weekend’s major new wide release, but The Super Mario Galaxy Movie looks to rule the charts for a third frame. You can peruse my detailed rap on the reboot of The Mummy franchise here:
My projection for the newcomer likely puts it in a battle for second place with the fifth weekend of Project Hail Mary. I’m looking for both to land in the mid to higher teens and I’ll give the latter a slight edge for a third weekend in the runner-up position. Warner Bros. would love for Cronin’s horror version of The Mummy to hit $20M+, but I’m skeptical.
As for Mario, it should have no trouble scoring the trifecta atop the box office mountain with earnings between $35-40 million. Its streak in the top spot should end in weekend #4 with musical biopic Michael slated to beat it.
Holdovers romances The Drama and You, Me & Tuscany should fill out the rest of the top five and here’s how I envision it shaking out:
1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
Predicted Gross: $38.4 million
2. Project Hail Mary
Predicted Gross: $17.9 million
3. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy
Predicted Gross: $17.2 million
4. The Drama
Predicted Gross: $6 million
5. You, Me & Tuscany
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
Box Office Results(April 10-12)
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie didn’t hold as well as 2023 predecessor The Super Mario Bros. Movie, but its 48% decline was still commendable. The Illumination Entertainment sequel took in $68 million, falling below my generous $79.1 million prediction. In two weeks, the total has soared to $307 million.
Project Hail Mary eased only 24% in second with $24.1 million, ahead of my $20.6 million forecast. The sci-fi blockbuster stands at $256 million after four weeks.
The Drama with Zendaya and Robert Pattinson was third, with a solid 39% dip to $8.7 million. That’s on track with my $8.5 million call resulting in a two-week take of $30 million.
You, Me & Tuscany was fourth as the romantic comedy with Halle Bailey and Regé-Jean Page stalled with $7.7 million. I had it making more at $11.2 million.
Finally, Hoppers was fifth with $4.1 million (I said $3.6 million) as the Pixar effort jumped to $157 million after six weeks.
After a potent start over the Easter frame, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie should easily rule the box office world yet again. You, Me & Tuscany is the only wide release newcomer likely to crack the top 5 and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Tuscany, the picturesque rom-com with Halle Bailey and Regé-Jean Page is a little bit of a mystery. It could bottom out in the high single digits or manage teens. I’m splitting the difference for a third place showing in the low double digits.
Mario Galaxy nearly rose to the opening earnings of 2023 predecessor The Super Mario Bros. Movie, but fell a bit short for what was still a terrific premiere (more on that below). Part 1 took in over $90 million in its sophomore outing and I’ve got this not reaching those heights.
Project Hail Mary should stay strong in second place and might witness the lowest percentage drop of the holdovers.
The Drama with Zendaya and Robert Pattinson opened in line with expectations. With a B Cinemascore grade (which is so-so), it could see a decline in the 50% range. However, I suspect it may ease in the lower 40s.
Hoppers should round out the top five and here’s I see it shaking out:
1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
Predicted Gross: $79.1 million
2. Project Hail Mary
Predicted Gross: $20.6 million
3. You, Me & Tuscany
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
4. The Drama
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
5. Hoppers
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million
Box Office Results (April 3-5)
Family audiences were certainly over the moon for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie as it hauled in $131.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $190.8 million since its Wednesday bow. While that doesn’t match the $204 million that 2023’s original banked, it shows that this franchise is on firm footing. The respective grosses eclipsed my predictions of $126.5 million and $171.2 million.
Project Hail Mary dropped to second after two weeks in first place with $31.7 million, a tad shy of my $35.2 million forecast. The sci-fi tale boasts $218 million in its coffers after three weeks.
The Drama, as mentioned, was on par with most estimates at $14.3 million in third. I thought it might climb a little higher with a $16.7 million call. It will be interesting to see if it fades quickly or has some staying power.
Hoppers was fourth with $5.8 million as the Disney/Pixar animated flick had its most significant percentage drop thanks to Mario and Luigi. I had it at $8 million. The five-week cumulation is $149 million.
Fifth place went to Reminders of Him with $2.2 million (I said $2.9 million) and $45 million after four weeks.
The Little Mermaid star Halle Bailey and Bridgerton lead Regé-Jean Page headline You, Me & Tuscany on April 10th. Universal hopes rom com fans check into the Kat Coiro (Marry Me) directed effort with a supporting cast featuring Marco Calvani, Lorenzo de Moor, Aziza Scott, Nia Vardolos, and Isabella Ferrari.
Tuscany could benefit from a lack of competition for genre fans. While The Drama with Zendaya and Robert Pattinson will be in its second frame, I certainly wouldn’t call that your traditional romantic comedy. A worst case opening might be in line with Coiro’s Marry Me with Jennifer Lopez and Owen Wilson. It premiered to just under $8 million during a busy Christmas season.
This should fare better and I’ll say it manages to cross double digits.
You, Me & Tuscany opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million
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