The 27th Critics Choice Awards air this Sunday evening and they’re another often reliable indicator for who and what may win on Oscar night. As I have with SAG and the Golden Globes, I am giving you my winner predictions along with the runner-up pick.
Let’s get to it and I’ll have a recap up either Sunday evening or Monday!
Best Picture
Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick… Boom!
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
Dune
Best Director
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Predicted Winner:
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Best Actress
Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Predicted Winner:
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Runner-Up:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Actor
Nominees:
Nicolas Cage, Pig
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Predicted Winner:
Will Smith, King Richard
Runner-Up:
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Caitríona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Ann Dowd, Mass
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Rita Moreno, West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Runner-Up:
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Predicted Winner:
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Predicted Winner:
Licorice Pizza
Runner-Up:
Belfast
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
CODA
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
CODA
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Predicted Winner:
Encanto
Runner-Up:
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Best Comedy
Nominees:
Barb and Star Go To Vista Del Mar
Don’t Look Up
Free Guy
The French Dispatch
Licorice Pizza
Predicted Winner:
The French Dispatch
Runner-Up:
Licorice Pizza
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
A Hero
The Worst Person in the World
Predicted Winner:
Drive My Car
Runner-Up:
The Worst Person in the World
Best Young Actor/Actress
Nominees:
Jude Hill, Belfast
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
Emilia Jones, CODA
Woody Norman, C’Mon C’Mon
Saniyya Sidney, King Richard
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Runner-Up:
Emilia Jones, CODA
Best Acting Ensemble
Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
The Harder They Fall
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
Belfast
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
Dune
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
Cruella
Dune
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
Cruella
Runner-Up:
Dune
Best Editing
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
Dune
Runner-Up:
West Side Story
Best Hair and Makeup
Nominees:
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
Predicted Winner:
House of Gucci
Runner-Up:
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Production Design
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
Nightmare Alley
Runner-Up:
Dune
Best Score
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Spencer
Predicted Winner:
Dune
Runner-Up:
The Power of the Dog
Best Song
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Predicted Winner:
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
Runner-Up:
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
Best Visual Effects
Nominees:
Dune
The Matrix Resurrections
Nightmare Alley
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Predicted Winner:
Dune
Runner-Up:
No Time to Die
That equates to the following pictures garnering these numbers for wins:
6 Wins
The Power of the Dog
3 Wins
Dune
2 Wins
West Side Story
1 Win
Cruella, Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Encanto, The French Dispatch, House of Gucci, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, Spencer
It’s an eagerly awaited weekend at the box office as The Batman looks to have the second highest debut of the COVID era (behind only Spider-Man: No Way Home). The DCEU reboot with Robert Pattinson as the Caped Crusader is the only new release of this weekend (and the majority of March) and my detailed prediction post on it can be found here:
The range of possibility is wide (anywhere from $100 to $200 million depending on what you’re reading). I believe a gross just north of $150 million is most likely and my projection gives it the 20th largest domestic opening of all time.
Holdovers should experience heftier dips than this past weekend with Uncharted, Dog, Spider-Man, and Death on the Nile all sliding a spot. Here’s how I see it looking:
1. The Batman
Predicted Gross: $155.2 million
2. Uncharted
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
3. Dog
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
4. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
5. Death on the Nile
Predicted Gross: $2.5 million
Box Office Results (February 25-27)
The leftovers didn’t spoil during the last frame of February while the two newcomers didn’t prove appetizing to moviegoers.
Uncharted ruled the charts for the second frame with $23 million, just ahead of my $21.8 million forecast for a two-week total of $83 million. Tom Holland, as I mentioned last week, has himself another promising franchise.
Channing Tatum’s Dog was a good boy in its sophomore outing with $10.1 million, outpacing my $8.4 million take. The two-week haul is $30 million.
Spider-Man: No Way Home was third with $5.8 million (I said $6 million) for a gargantuan take of $779 million.
Death on the Nile was fourth with $4.4 million, edging my $3.7 million prediction for a stalled $32 million overall.
Jackass Forever rounded out the top five with $3.1 million (I went with $2.8 million). It’s up to $52 million.
The fresh product managed respective 8th and 9th place starts. Studio 666, the horror comedy from the Foo Fighters, made only $1.5 million compared to my $2.1 million estimate. Cyrano with Peter Dinklage fared even worse with $1.3 million (I said $1.8 million).
Blogger’s Update (02/23): The theater count for Studio 666 has been announced and it’s higher than expected with just over 2300 screens. I’m upping my estimate a bit from $1.4 million to $2.1 million.
As February closes out and we await the massive release of The Batman to begin March, the top five may look the same this weekend. There are two new titles: the musical romantic drama Cyrano with Peter Dinklage and the Foo Fighters led horror comedy Studio 666. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
I’ve got both of the newcomers posting debuts in the $2 million range- $1.8 million for Cyrano and $2.1 million for 666. That would put both outside of the top five.
As for the holdovers, the post President’s Day weekend usually sees rather large drops for those returnees. After as its terrific debut (more on that below), Uncharted could be headed for a slide in the 50 percent range with Dog in the low to mid 40s. Spider-Man: No Way Home, Death on the Nile, and Jackass Forever should hold their spots in the 3-5 positions.
So as the Caped Crusader readies for his closeup and a nine figure start (my box office prediction for it will be up tomorrow), here’s how I see things happening this weekend:
1. Uncharted
Predicted Gross: $21.8 million
2. Dog
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $6 million
4. Death on the Nile
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
5. Jackass Forever
Predicted Gross: $2.8 million
Box Office Results (February 18-21)
It’s Tom Holland’s world and we’re just living in it as his adventure flick Uncharted with Mark Wahlberg dominated the four-day holiday frame with a much bigger than anticipated $51.3 million. That blows away my forecast of $33.7 million and shows that its lead’s star power extends beyond him in the Spidey suit. Expect a sequel to be fast tracked.
Channing Tatum received a welcome return after a lengthy starring role absence as his directorial debut Dog took in $17.3 million, lapping my $13.3 million estimate. With an A- Cinemascore grade, this could perform well over subsequent weeks as Tatum has The Lost City lined up with Sandra Bullock a month from now.
That other franchise of Holland’s – Spider-Man: No Way Home – was third with $9.2 million as it swung past my $7.3 million take. At $772 million, it’s perched at #3 domestically all-time.
Death on the Nile stalled in its sophomore frame and fell from first to fourth with $7.7 million (I went higher at $9.8 million). The underwhelming two week total is $26 million.
Jackass Forever was fifth with $6 million (I said $5.7 million) for a three week tally of $47 million.
Finally, Jennifer Lopez’s rom com Marry Me was sixth in its second go-round with $4.3 million compared to my more generous $6 million prediction. It’s made $17 million.
After premiering at Telluride nearly six months ago, Cyrano has experienced a bumpy ride to multiplexes. From Joe Wright, the latest version of Cyrano de Bergerac features Peter Dinklage in the title role and Haley Bennett, Kelvin Harrison, Jr., and Ben Mendelsohn among the supporting cast.
Festival reviews indicated this could have been an Oscar player and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 87%. However, the musical romance was delayed by MGM from Christmas to the February 25th release. It still managed a brief qualifying run in 2021, but that resulted in a lone Costume Design nod with Dinklage (once thought to a sturdy contender) left out.
With zero awards buzz and a reported screen count of only 750, it seems like the studio is not confident in their product. A gross of approximately $1.5-$2.5 million could mean it won’t even translate to the top five.
And at last… they’re out! After months of speculating on the blog (starting all the way back with my initial predictions in August), the Oscar nominations for the 94th Academy Awards were unveiled early this morning.
As always, there’s shocking omissions and surprising additions. There’s races that went as planned. And (for me at least) there’s always that one tricky category where I end up going 2/5. This year it was Documentary Feature which is notoriously tough to figure out. On the flip side, I projected 4 out of the 20 feature film competitions with 5/5 accuracy. All in all – I went 82 for 105 on the picks.
Some initial thoughts before I break it down race by race. The Power of the Dog was easily the winner of the morning with 12 nods (even more than anticipated). It led all nominees with Dune second (10).
Other movies that either met or exceeded expectations: Drive My Car, King Richard, and Nightmare Alley (which was the only somewhat surprising BP addition). For others, it was more of a mixed bag. Belfast garnered 7 mentions but came up short in key tech indicators like Cinematography and Editing. The same can be said for Licorice Pizza. Seven was also the number for West Side Story, but it missed screenplay. Being the Ricardos got 3 acting nods but no Picture or screenplay. And even Dune, with the 10 nods, somehow missed a director nomination for Denis Villeneuve.
Then there’s House of Gucci, which showed up only in Makeup and Hairstyling. No Jared Leto (I predicted he’d be left off), but no Lady Gaga in Actress was perhaps the shocker of the day.
Let’s get into it and I’ll offer my initial take on what/who could win (my final predictions will come shortly before the March 27th show).
Best Picture
Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
How I Did: 9/10
Commentary: My one miss was Alley coming in over Being the Ricardos. Make no mistake. With its 12 mentions, The Power of the Dog is undoubtedly the frontrunner. Yes, the Twitterverse will offer alternate theories. Could Drive My Car‘s impressive haul give us our second foreign BP winner in three years? Could Belfast or West Side Story spoil? I doubt it.
Best Director
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Hamaguchi getting in wasn’t unforeseen. If so, I figured he’d do so over Anderson, Branagh, or Spielberg and certainly not Villeneuve. That’s what happened. Campion made history today by becoming the first female nominee to get a second nomination. All signs point to her becoming the third (after Kathryn Bigelow and Chloe Zhao) to win.
Best Actress
Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: We now arrive at the biggest head scratcher of the major categories. Gaga’s aforementioned omission is truly unexpected (Cruz takes her slot). The precursors (BAFTA, Globes, SAG) have been all over the map and there’s no obvious favorite. I would say Cruz doesn’t stand much of a chance, but the other four do (it’s a lot like last year’s Actress derby). This is also the first time since 2005 where no Actress hopeful has their film in contention for Best Picture. Kidman’s Globe win could help and we’ll see what SAG does, but this is wide open.
Best Actor
Nominees:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: That’s more like it! Smith (especially after Richard‘s good morning) is out ahead though I could see Cumberbatch definitely threatening after Dog‘s very good morning. Fun tidbit: not since 1980 has the Best Actor race consisted entirely of previous nominees until today.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: This was the first race announced today and the jaws of prognosticators dropped immediately. Buckley and (especially) Dench were not anticipated by most. I didn’t even have either as my runner-up or second alternate. They displace Ruth Negga (Passing) and Dench’s costar Caitriona Balfe. While the lineup is different than we thought, the frontrunner (DeBose) remains the same with Dunst (getting her first nod) as a possible upset pick.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Simmons in over Bradley Cooper in Licorice Pizza. Mr. Cooper has two movies contending for BP but no singling out to show for it. Smit-McPhee may be out in front but a Kotsur victory is feasible.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Worst Person is the surprise. I didn’t predict Richard though its inclusion was expected. They’re in over Ricardos and Parallel Mothers (which was admittedly a bit of an upset pick from me). This should be between Belfast and Pizza and it may represent the best opportunity for either to grab a statue.
Tidbit: since 2001, there was at least one screenplay contender where it served as its only nomination. Until today.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: Let’s not overcomplicate it when we don’t need to. Power is far and away the leader in this pack.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: This went as planned. There are three Disney products in the group, but the other two (Flee, Mitchells) are potential roadblocks to Encanto winning. Yet betting against Disney usually isn’t wise in this one and Encanto will probably take it.
Best International Feature Film
Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
The Worst Person in the World
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: I’m gonna go ahead and say Lunana is the first Oscar contender with Yak in its title without checking (correct me if wrong). It surprisingly gets in (along with far less surprising The Hand of God) over A Hero and Playground. This one’s simple: anything other than Car would be a massive upset.
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees:
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing with Fire
How I Did: 2/5
Commentary: There’s that blasted 2 for 5 race! Ascension, Attica, and Fire are up over my selections of Faye Dayi, Procession, and The Rescue (its omission is stunning considering it was a contender to win).
Flee made history by becoming the first film to be nominated for Animated Feature, International Feature Film, and here. This race probably marks its best chance to win, but I wouldn’t sleep on Summer of Soul.
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Alley over Belfast. Get used to hearing this with the tech categories – Dune might be out in front. Dog could threaten.
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Cyrano‘s sole nod comes here. I had House of Gucci instead. Dune can’t win all the techs and Cruella could take this.
Best Film Editing
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Tick, Tick… Boom!
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Richard and Boom! over Belfast and Licorice Pizza. The Belfast omission is particularly notable as BP victors nearly always are nominated here. This could be more Dune gold.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Went with Suicide Squad over Coming 2 America. Despite its bad performance this morning, Gucci could win this. Or it might just go to Dune.
Best Original Score
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
No Time to Die
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Went with The French Dispatch (which goose egged) over Mothers. As for the winner (get ready for it) – expect Dune or Dog.
Best Original Song
Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Maybe the surprise here shouldn’t be with “Somehow You Do” over “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up. After all, this marks Diane Warren’s 13th nomination and sixth in the last seven years. She’s never won and won’t this time.
“Be Alive” from Beyonce or “Oruguitas” could get it, but “No Time to Die” from Billie Eilish could be the third Bond theme in a row to be celebrated.
Best Production Design
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Another category where I said French Dispatch and missed. Power gets in instead. While Dune is strong, I wouldn’t be startled to see this as the lone victory for Nightmare Alley.
Best Sound
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: You should hear Dune‘s name called.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees:
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Free Guy and Spidey over The Matrix Resurrections and Godzilla vs. Kong. As for the winner: See Best Sound.
Here’s the overall nominations break down:
12 Nominations
The Power of the Dog
10 Nominations
Dune
7 Nominations
Belfast, West Side Story
6 Nominations
King Richard
4 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Nightmare Alley
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, CODA, Encanto, Flee, Licorice Pizza, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, The Tragedy of Macbeth
2 Nominations
Cruella, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Parallel Mothers, Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Worst Person in the World
1 Nomination
Ascension, Attica, Coming 2 America, Cyrano, Four Good Days, Free Guy, The Hand of God, House of Gucci, Luca, Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Raya and the Last Dragon, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spencer, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, Writing with Fire
Starting very shortly, you can peruse my Case Of posts in which I write individualized posts for all the contenders in Picture, Director, and the four acting races!
This is it! After months of speculation that began all the way back in a time known as August 2021, the guesswork grinds to a halt. It’s time for my FINAL Oscar predictions for the 94th Academy Awards. Nominations are out Tuesday (February 8th) with the big show airing March 27th.
I’ve penned thousands of words discussing the various feature film categories that will be revealed. The speculation ends today. For each race, I will give you my picks along with a runner-up and a second alternate. On Tuesday, I’ll have reaction up with my thoughts and, of course, how I did with the prognostications. I’m also giving you how I fared in the previous two years with each category.
So… pencils down. Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
2019 Performance: 9/9
2020 Performance: 7/9
***There are 10 fixed nominees now***
Predicted Nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Tick, Tick… Boom!
Second Alternate: The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Director
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Runner-Up: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Second Alternate: Sian Heder, CODA
Best Actress
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 5/5
Predicted Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Runner-Up: Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Second Alternate: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Best Actor
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 5/5
Predicted Nominees:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Second Alternate: Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Best Supporting Actress
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing
Runner-Up: Ann Dowd, Mass
Second Alternate: Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Best Supporting Actor
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Second Alternate: Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Best Original Screenplay
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
Parallel Mothers
Runner-Up: King Richard
Second Alternate: C’Mon C’Mon
Best Adapted Screenplay
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 3/5
Predicted Nominees:
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: West Side Story
Second Alternate: Passing
Best Animated Feature
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Runner-Up: Belle
Second Alternate: Sing 2
Best International Feature Film
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 2/5
Predicted Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
A Hero
Playground
The Worst Person in the World
Runner-Up: The Hand of God
Second Alternate: Prayers for the Stolen
Best Documentary Feature
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 3/5
Predicted Nominees:
Faya Dayi
Flee
Procession
The Rescue
Summer of Soul
Runner-Up: The First Wave
Second Alternate: Ascension
Best Cinematography
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Nightmare Alley
Second Alternate: Licorice Pizza
Best Costume Design
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Cruella
Dune
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Cyrano
Second Alternate: Licorice Pizza
Best Film Editing
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: West Side Story
Second Alternate: King Richard
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
The Suicide Squad
Runner-Up: Coming 2 America
Second Alternate: Cyrano
Best Original Score
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
The French Dispatch
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Parallel Mothers
Second Alternate: Spencer
Best Original Song
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Runner-Up: “Here I Am” from Respect
Second Alternate: “Beyond the Shore” from CODA
Best Production Design
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 3/5
Predicted Nominees:
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Belfast
Second Alternate: Licorice Pizza
Best Sound
2020 Performance: 5/5
***Sound races were split into Editing and Mixing prior to 2020
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: A Quiet Place Part II
Second Alternate: Spider-Man: No Way Home
Best Visual Effects
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 3/5
Predicted Nominees:
Dune
Godzilla vs. Kong
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Runner-Up: Spider-Man: No Way Home
Second Alternate: Ghostbusters: Afterlife
And this means my FINAL tally of total nominations for these films are as follows:
11 Nominations
Dune, The Power of the Dog
9 Nominations
Belfast
7 Nominations
West Side Story
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, King Richard
3 Nominations
CODA, Drive My Car, Encanto, Flee, House of Gucci, No Time to Die, The Tragedy of Macbeth
2 Nominations
Cruella, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley
1 Nomination
Faya Dayi, Godzilla vs. Kong, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Parallel Mothers, Passing, Playground, Procession, Raya and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spencer, The Suicide Squad, Summer of Soul, Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Worst Person in the World
Come Tuesday – visit the blog for reaction to the nominations!
The DGA and PGA nominations are out as of yesterday and it’s caused some reflection as I pen my penultimate predictions for the 2021 Oscars. With Being the Ricardos and Tick, Tick… Boom! nabbing the final two BP spots at PGA (the other 8 were pretty obvious), I feel it necessary to include at least one of them. On the other hand, I’m reluctant to include both as PGA and the Academy’s BP selection rarely match. I’m leaning toward Boom! and it vaults back into the top ten. Yet I’m continuing to keep The Tragedy of Macbeth in the mix despite its lack of recent precursor love.
The DGA quintet and the Best Director nominees haven’t mirrored each other since 2009. So it’s a risk to go with DGA’s five. However, as of this moment, I’m going with it.
Another big change is in Best Actor as I’m including Javier Bardem in Ricardos for the first time (over Leonardo DiCaprio for Don’t Look Up). There’s also a change in Supporting Actor as I’m putting Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) in for his inaugural appearance. That knocks out Jared Leto for Gucci.
The last big piece of the precursor puzzle arrives Thursday with BAFTA nods. On Friday (02/04), I will make my FINAL Oscar calls before nomination morning on Tuesday, February 8th.
Here’s how I have things standing as of now:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune (PR: 4) (+1)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
6. King Richard (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)
8. CODA (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 11) (+2)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Being the Ricardos (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Drive My Car (PR: 13) (+1)
13. House of Gucci (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Lost Daughter (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
No Time to Die
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 9) (E)
10. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 1) (E)
2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7) (E)
8. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 2) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (E)
9. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (+1)
8. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. Being the Ricardos (PR: 4) (E)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mass (PR: 8) (E)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (E)
10. A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Pig
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)
8. Passing (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)
5. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belle (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sing 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Vivo (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
My Sunny Maad
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Drive My Car (PR: 1) (E)
2. A Hero (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Your Man (PR: 6) (E)
7. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Great Freedom (PR: 9) (E)
10. Playground (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Good Boss
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)
3. Procession (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The First Wave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ascension (PR: 6) (E)
7. Faya Dayi (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Attica (PR: 7) (-1)
9. President (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Velvet Underground (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
In the Same Breath
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (E)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spencer (PR: 10) (+1)
10. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
C’Mon C’Mon
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-4)
7. King Richard (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (+1)
10. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Being the Ricardos
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)
5. Coming 2 America (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (+1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Cyrano (PR: 9) (E)
10. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spencer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parallel Mothers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Encanto (PR: 7) (-1)
9. King Richard (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+2)
5. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 8) (E)
9. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (+1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Spencer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cyrano (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 3) (E)
4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Free Guy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Eternals (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: 9) (E)
10. Black Widow (PR: 10) (E)
This all equates to the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:
11 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast, The Power of the Dog
8 Nominations
West Side Story
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
King Richard, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, CODA, Flee, House of Gucci, Tick, Tick… Boom!
2 Nominations
Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die, Spencer
1 Nomination
C’Mon C’Mon, Coming 2 America, Drive My Car, The First Wave, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, Procession, Ray and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Tender Bar, The Worst Person in the World
In two weeks time, House of Gucci has gone from unranked in my top 15 Best Picture possibilities to making the cut in 10th. Whether it stays there – who knows? As I see it, the top 8 look relatively safe and then it could be a free for all for the last two spots. Gucci‘s rise means Tick, Tick… Boom! drops out.
I’ve also made way for The Lone Screenplay nominee which has occurred every year since 2001. C’Mon C’Mon is now included in Original Screenplay and that knocks out King Richard. I wrote about The Lone Screenplay history of the 21st century here:
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have a penultimate update next week before unveiling my final predictions shortly before the February 8th announcement!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (+2)
7. King Richard (PR: 6) (-1)
8. CODA (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+1)
10. House of Gucci (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Being the Ricardos (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Drive My Car (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Lost Daughter (PR: 14) (E)
15. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nightmare Alley
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 1) (E)
2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 6) (E)
7. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 7) (E)
8. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (E)
9. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (E)
10. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. Being the Ricardos (PR: 5) (+1)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. King Richard (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mass (PR: 8) (E)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (E)
10. Pig (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Hero
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dune (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Passing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Last Duel (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)
5. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belle (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (E)
8. Vivo (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 10) (+1)
10. My Sunny Maad (PR: 8) (-2)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Drive My Car (PR: 1) (E)
2. A Hero (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 8) (E)
9. Great Freedom (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Good Boss (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Procession (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The First Wave (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ascension (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Attica (PR: 6) (-1)
8. President (PR: 8) (E)
9. Faya Dayi (PR: 9) (E)
10. In the Same Breath (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Julia
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (+1)
5. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (-1)
9. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Spencer (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spencer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (E)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (-2)
8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The French Dispatch
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Coming 2 America (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cyrano (PR: 9) (E)
10. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Encanto (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-1)
9. King Richard (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 9) (+2)
8. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Spencer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Cruella
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Free Guy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Eternals (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Black Widow (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these films achieving these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
5 Nominations
House of Gucci, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, King Richard, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
CODA, Flee, No Time to Die
2 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Lost Daughter, Spencer, Tick, Tick… Boom!
1 Nomination
C’Mon C’Mon, Coming 2 America, Drive My Car, The First Wave, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Nightmare Alley, Parallel Mothers, Passing, Procession, Raya and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Respect, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
My first Oscar predictions following the Golden Globes bestowing their winners and the SAG Award nods comes with not a whole lot of changes in who and what I’m actually predicting in the major categories.
However, there is a significant alteration in placement for Best Actress as Kristen Stewart’s shocking omission in Spencer from the SAG five drops her from 1st (where she’s been perched for months) to 4th. Rising to #1 is Globes victor Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos. This competition is beginning to resemble the unpredictable Actress lineup from 2020 and it should be fun to witness.
In Best Picture, I’m (perhaps stubbornly) sticking to the same ten. Yet there’s no doubt that Ricardos and House of Gucci could be on the rise and either or both could crack the lineup soon.
The only significant change is in Supporting Actor where I’m finally putting Jared Leto for Gucci in the mix. He’s in over Jamie Dornan (Belfast).
I’m also adding a new feature which shows how many eventual nominees from 2020 were correctly picked at this same juncture. I’ll keep that up until I make my final picks shortly before the February 8th announcement. This will be listed as 2020 Count.
You can read all the movement below.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. CODA (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Being the Ricardos (PR: 14) (+3)
12. House of Gucci (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Drive My Car (PR: 11) (-2)
14. The Lost Daughter (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Nightmare Alley (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Spider-Man: No Way Home
2020 Count: 7 of 8 eventual nominees
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (-1)
2020 Count: 2 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Judi Dench, Belfast
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (-2)
9. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (E)
10. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 8) (-2)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. King Richard (PR: 4) (E)
5. Being the Ricardos (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Mass (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (+1)
10. A Hero (PR: 9) (-1)
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7) (E)
8. Passing (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Last Duel (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Luca (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belle (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (E)
8. My Sunny Maad (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Vivo (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (-1)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Drive My Car (PR: 1) (E)
2. A Hero (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Great Freedom (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Good Boss (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Rescue (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Procession (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Summer of Soul (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Ascension (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Attica (PR: 6) (E)
7. The First Wave (PR: 7) (E)
8. President (PR: 8) (E)
9. Faya Dayi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Julia (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
In the Same Breath
2020 Count: 1 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Belfast (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Spencer (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (-2)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
No Time to Die
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Spencer (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cyrano (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (-2)
8. King Richard (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Nightmare Alley
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Coming 2 America (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Cruella (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Suicide Squad (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-2)
8. West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-1)
10. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Spencer (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parallel Mothers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)
8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)
9. Encanto (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Right Where I Belong” from Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cyrano (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cruella (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (+2)
7. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 7) (E)
8. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 9) (E)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Time to Die (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Free Guy (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Eternals (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Black Widow (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
And that equates to these movies hitting these numbers for their nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, King Richard
4 Nominations
House of Gucci, Licorice Pizza, Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
CODA, Flee, Spencer
2 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Ascension, Coming 2 America, Drive My Car, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, Procession, Raya and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home, The Worst Person in the World
Hand it to the SAG Awards voting branch for providing more surprises than the Hollywood Foreign Press Association did with the Golden Globes! For their ceremony airing in February, nominations were announced this morning and there were shocking omissions and unexpected inclusions. I went 20 for 30 overall with my picks.
This is not the headline I was expecting to write, but I’d say House of Gucci was the big winner of the day. It showed up in every feasible category where it could while other heavyweight pics (Belfast, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story) saw snubs.
Let’s break it down race by race with how I did and what it means for the Oscar landscape (and there are implications, folks).
A * indicates that I correctly forecasted the nominee.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees:
Belfast *
CODA *
Don’t Look Up *
House of Gucci
King Richard
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary – Of the three films most likely to take Best Picture from the Academy, only Belfast showed up here. That means my predictions of The Power of the Dog and West Side Story didn’t make the cut. My second alternate pick King Richard is not unexpected, but SAG clearly has a thing for Gucci and that proved itself today. There was some chatter that West Side sending out late screeners for voters could be a hindrance and its sole nod this morning could lend some credence to that. As for Power, that’s more of a head scratcher as it landed three individual acting mentions (I don’t think this hurts its BP chances at Oscar). I’m nowhere near finalizing winner forecasts, but you’d have to think Belfast is a possibility (though its omissions which I’ll discuss in a minute make me question that)…
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye *
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter *
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci *
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos *
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary – OK 4 for 5 is fine and all, but there is a major surprise with this lineup and that’s Kristen Stewart not making the list for Spencer. No one saw this coming. I’ve had Stewart listed in my #1 slot at the Oscars for months. So how many times has the Academy victor for lead actress not been nominated for SAG in the 27 years of its existence? Once and that’s with a huge caveat. In 2008, Kate Winslet took Oscar gold for The Reader. That year, SAG mentioned her for Revolutionary Road instead and the studio for The Reader submitted her in supporting at SAG.
Obviously this calls into question whether Stewart has any chance now of winning the Academy Award and it’s a safe bet that she’ll drop from her #1 perch in my rankings when I update them tomorrow. Hudson’s inclusion here is a little surprising, but this is more about who didn’t make it. Kidman took the Golden Globe. If she takes SAG, look out.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog *
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! *
Will Smith, King Richard *
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth *
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary – Being the Ricardos got its two leads in (though not Ensemble or Supporting Actor for J.K. Simmons). That’s my miss in this derby as I had Peter Dinklage (Cyrano) in. As far as Oscar is concerned – Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith, and Washington are looking safe (with Smith as the frontrunner). The fifth slot is up for grabs.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast *
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story *
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog *
Ruth Negga, Passing
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary – Negga factoring in ups her Oscar viability (she got a Globes nod too). Blanchett is a surprise. I had Rita Moreno (West Side Story) in, but her omission is not unexpected. She hasn’t managed a Globe or SAG and I’d say her Academy chances are fading fast. Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) missing here is pretty significant. DeBose probably stands the best chance, but the fact that this is the only nod for West Side makes me believe an upset is totally possible.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Troy Kotsur, CODA *
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog *
How I Did: 2/5
Commentary – The Supporting Actor race has been unpredictable and did that ever show this morning! Yep, I went 2 for 5. Neither Belfast hopeful (Jamie Dornan, Ciaran Hinds) factored in nor did Mike Faist for West Side Story. I’ll note that Affleck, Kotsur, and Smit-McPhee are the three that managed Globe and SAG attention. While I didn’t have Cooper for SAG, his inclusion here makes me more confident picking him for an Oscar nod (where I’ve had him for weeks). Leto’s chances get a boost after missing the Globes. And at the end of the day – Smit-McPhee could be headed towards a sweep after taking the Globe.
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble
Nominees:
Black Widow *
Dune *
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die *
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings *
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary – Pretty simple as Matrix gets in over Spider-Man: No Way Home. This is likely a Dune win or maybe No Time to Die.
And there you have it! I won’t spend too much time expressing my amazement over the Stewart snub (I’m sure you’ll find plenty of that on Twitter). I’ll have my winner picks up on the blog shortly before the SAG Awards air on February 27th and I’ll have updated Oscar estimates up tomorrow!
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