Tag: Caitriona Balfe

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards Predictions: April 19th Edition

    Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

    I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.

    In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.

    As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.

    My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.

    We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.

    And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.

    So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.

    When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.

    You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.

    BEST PICTURE

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Odyssey

    2. Project Hail Mary

    3. Wild Horse Nine

    4. Digger

    5. Fjord

    6. No One Cares

    7. All of a Sudden

    8. Fatherland

    9. The Social Reckoning

    10. Dune: Part Three

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew

    12. A Place in Hell

    13. A Long Winter

    14. The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Being Heumann

    16. Cry to Heaven

    17. Josephine

    18. Werwulf

    19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    20. Michael

    21. Paper Tiger

    22. Saturn Return

    23. Sense and Sensibility

    24. Jack of Spades

    25. Behemoth!

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

    2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

    3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

    4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

    5. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

    7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

    8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

    9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

    10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

    11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

    12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

    13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

    14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf

    15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

    2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

    3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares

    4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

    5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

    7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

    8. Mason Reeves, Josephine

    9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa

    10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

    11. Sandra Hüller, Rose

    12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

    13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

    14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

    15. Amy Adams, At the Sea

    BEST ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Tom Cruise, Digger

    2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

    3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

    5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

    7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear

    8. Dominic Sessa, Tony

    9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

    10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael

    11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

    12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

    13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return

    15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

    2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

    3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares

    4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

    5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sandra Hüller, Digger

    7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

    8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

    9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

    10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

    11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

    12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

    13. Gemma Chan, Josephine

    14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

    15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

    2. John Goodman, Digger

    3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Colman Domingo, Michael

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

    7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

    8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey

    9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

    10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

    11. Jesse Plemons, Digger

    12. Channing Tatum, Josephine

    13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa

    14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress

    And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

    We are only two weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take on Supporting Actor and it can be found here:

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

    We move to Supporting Actress. My super duper early selections in 2025 yielded one eventual nominee in Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another. In the ten other possibilities, I named Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value. Eventual winner Amy Madigan (Weapons), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), and Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) were not identified at that early juncture.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or not be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actress and vice versa when I get to Best Actress. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

    This initial glance raises the possibility of Meryl Streep getting in for her iconic role as Miranda Priestly in The Devil Wears Prada 2. Same goes for her costar Anne Hathaway in The Odyssey. I have both missing the cut in favor of Sandra Hüller getting a second nomination (and she could be in line for a third in lead Actress) among four first-time contenders.

    Here’s the first snapshot with Best Actor up next!

    TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTRESS AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

    Halle Bailey, No One Cares

    Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

    Claire Foy, Ink

    Sandra Hüller, Digger

    Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

    Other Possibilities:

    Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

    Gemma Chan, Josephine

    Michaela Coel, Mother Mary

    Olivia Colman, Elsinore

    Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

    Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

    Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

    Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

    Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

    Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada 2

    Oscar Predictions: The Cut

    From Rocky to Raging Bull to Million Dollar Baby and The Fighter, boxing movies have a rich history with awards bodies. The Cut from Sean Ellis seeks to join that esteemed company with Orlando Bloom as a pugilist undergoing an unorthodox physical regimen. Caitriona Balfe and John Turturro (as a relentless trainer) costar.

    You will see quite a few Oscar Prediction posts coming from 2025’s Toronto Film Festival in the coming days. The Cut actually premiered at last year’s Canadian event and is finally out this weekend domestically via distribution from Republic Pictures.

    Critics are praising the work of Bloom and Turturro while notices for the pic itself are more mixed. Rotten Tomatoes is at 77% with Metacritic lower at 54. That reaction and the low key release means this won’t make the cut with the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    The Amateur Box Office Prediction

    Based on a 1981 novel by Robert Littell that was turned into a movie starring John Savage and Christopher Plummer, 20th Century Studios releases The Amateur on April 11th. The spy thriller is directed by James Hawes with Bohemian Rhapsody Oscar winner Rami Malek headlining. Costars include Rachel Brosnahan (about to appear in the eagerly anticipated Superman), Caitriona Balfe, Jon Bernthal, Michael Stuhlbarg, Holt McCallany, Julianne Nicholson, Adrian Martinez, and Laurence Fishburne.

    Once fashioned as a starring vehicle for Hugh Jackman, The Amateur has less power to capitalize on and seemingly scant buzz. This may struggle to reach $10 million, but I’ll project that it just gets there.

    The Amateur opening weekend prediction: $11.9 million

    For my Drop prediction, click here:

    Drop Box Office Prediction

    For my The King of Kings prediction, click here:

    The King of Kings Box Office Prediction

    For my The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 prediction, click here:

    The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 Box Office Prediction

    For my Warfare prediction, click here:

    Warfare Box Office Prediction

    Hong Chau and Claire Foy: An Oscar Reversal of Fortune

    This year’s crop of Supporting Actress hopefuls is a vast one and easily the toughest to predict of the four acting races. Earlier in the week, the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards named their nominees. For Supporting Actress, only three performers managed nods in both: Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin, and Jamie Lee Curtis for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Additional contenders for the Globe are Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness) and Carey Mulligan (She Said). For Critics Choice – it is Jessie Buckley (Women Talking), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once), and Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery).

    Of the 8 actresses vying for victory, there are two surprising women not being talked about. Hong Chau (The Whale) and Claire Foy (Women Talking) were snubbed by the Globes and Critics Choice. I have had Foy listed at #1 in my Oscar picks for many weeks and I’ve had Chau in and out of my high five. Their double omissions put them at a disadvantage. There are only six Supporting Actress Oscar nominees in the past decade who missed both the Globes and Critics Choice: Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook), Laura Dern (Wild), Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread), and Marina de Tavira (Roma). It is worthy of note the other two were from just last year – Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter) and Judi Dench (Belfast). None of them won the Oscar so you can bet Foy will at least drop from #1 when I update my predictions this weekend.

    On the flip side, there are also 6 women who did land Globe and Critics mentions and were ignored by the Academy. They are Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year, Helen Mirren from Trumbo, Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers, and Caitriona Balfe for Belfast.

    The two I’m holding back on are quite interesting…

    Hong Chau in 2017’s Downsizing and Claire Foy in 2018’s First Man. They were both expected to pick up nods from the Oscar voters and didn’t. In 2022, they find themselves in the opposite situation. After being left off the ballots for two major precursors, they could miss a nomination and no one would be taken aback. Yet as the Academy showed with Foy’s Women Talking costar Jessie Buckley last year and Dame Judi, this branch could go their own way and include either (especially after noticeably ignoring them a few years back).

    I’d rather be Bassett, Condon, and Curtis right now when it comes to viability. For Chau and Foy – the odds aren’t in their favor like they were five and four years back. Those odds didn’t help them then. Perhaps their longer ones will prove to their benefit this time around.

    2021 BAFTA Awards WINNERS Predictions

    As if Sunday’s Critics Choice Awards weren’t enough, the British Academy Film Awards air the same day. The BAFTAs, as of late, have been a rather reliable predictor for Oscar races (especially the acting derbies). Last year, the BAFTA/Oscar matched in all 4 thespian derbies and that included the surprise Anthony Hopkins (The Father) victory over Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. 

    That can’t occur this time around because none of the Best Actress contenders at BAFTA are nominated for the Academy Award (go figure!). As I have with other ceremonies, I’m giving you my winner pick with a runner-up. On Monday, expect recaps for Critics Choice and this show!

    Best Film

    Nominees:

    Belfast

    Don’t Look Up

    Dune

    Licorice Pizza

    The Power of the Dog

    Predicted Winner: The Power of the Dog

    Runner-Up: Belfast

    Best Director

    Nominees:

    Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

    Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

    Audrey Diwan, Happening

    Julia Ducournau, Titane

    Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

    Aleem Khan, After Love

    Predicted Winner: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

    Runner-Up: Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

    Best Actress in a Leading Role

    Nominees:

    Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

    Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

    Emilia Jones, CODA

    Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World

    Joanna Scanlan, After Love

    Tessa Thompson, Passing

    Predicted Winner: Joanna Scanlan, After Love

    Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World

    Best Actor in a Leading Role

    Nominees:

    Adeel Akhtar, Ali & Ava

    Mahershala Ali, Swan Song

    Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

    Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up

    Stephen Graham, Boiling Point

    Will Smith, King Richard

    Predicted Winner: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

    Runner-Up: Will Smith, King Richard

    Best Actress in a Supporting Role

    Nominees:

    Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

    Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter

    Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

    Ann Dowd, Mass

    Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

    Ruth Negga, Passing

    Predicted Winner: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

    Runner-Up: Ruth Negga, Passing

    Best Actor in a Supporting Role

    Nominees:

    Mike Faist, West Side Story

    Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

    Troy Kotsur, CODA

    Woody Norman, C’Mon C’Mon

    Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

    Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

    Predicted Winner: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

    Runner-Up: Troy Kotsur, CODA

    Best Original Screenplay

    Nominees:

    Being the Ricardos

    Belfast

    Don’t Look Up

    King Richard

    Licorice Pizza

    Predicted Winner: Belfast

    Runner-Up: Licorice Pizza

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Nominees:

    CODA

    Drive My Car

    Dune

    The Lost Daughter

    The Power of the Dog

    Predicted Winner: The Power of the Dog

    Runner-Up: The Lost Daughter

    Best Animated Film

    Nominees:

    Encanto

    Flee

    Luca

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    Predicted Winner: Flee

    Runner-Up: Encanto

    Best Documentary 

    Nominees:

    Becoming Cousteau

    Cow

    Flee

    The Rescue

    Summer of Soul

    Predicted Winner: Summer of Soul

    Runner-Up: Flee

    Best Film Not in the English Language

    Nominees:

    Drive My Car

    The Hand of God

    Parallel Mothers

    Petite Maman

    The Worst Person in the World

    Predicted Winner: Drive My Car

    Runner-Up: The Worst Person in the World

    Best Casting

    Nominees:

    Boiling Point

    Dune

    The Hand of God

    King Richard

    West Side Story

    Predicted Winner: West Side Story

    Runner-Up: Dune

    Best Cinematography

    Nominees:

    Dune

    Nightmare Alley

    No Time to Die

    The Power of the Dog

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Predicted Winner: Dune

    Runner-Up: The Power of the Dog

    Best Costume Design

    Nominees:

    Cruella

    Cyrano

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    Nightmare Alley

    Predicted Winner: Cruella

    Runner-Up: Dune

    Best Editing

    Nominees:

    Belfast

    Dune

    Licorice Pizza

    No Time to Die

    Summer of Soul

    Predicted Winner: Dune

    Runner-Up: No Time to Die

    Best Makeup and Hair

    Nominees:

    Cruella

    Cyrano

    Dune

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    House of Gucci

    Predicted Winner: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Runner-Up: House of Gucci

    Best Original Score

    Nominees:

    Being the Ricardos

    Don’t Look Up

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    The Power of the Dog

    Predicted Winner: Dune

    Runner-Up: The Power of the Dog

    Best Production Design

    Nominees:

    Cyrano

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    Nightmare Alley

    West Side Story

    Predicted Winner: Dune

    Runner-Up: Nightmare Alley

    Best Sound

    Nominees:

    Dune

    Last Night in Soho

    No Time to Die

    A Quiet Place Part II

    West Side Story

    Predicted Winner: Dune

    Runner-Up: No Tme to Die

    Best Special Visual Effects

    Nominees:

    Dune

    Free Guy

    Ghostbusters: Afterlife 

    The Matrix Resurrections

    No Time to Die

    Predicted Winner: Dune

    Runner-Up: No Time to Die

    Outstanding British Film

    Nominees:

    After Love

    Ali & Ava

    Belfast

    Boiling Point

    Cyrano

    Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

    House of Gucci

    Last Night in Soho

    No Time to Die

    Passing

    Predicted Winner: Belfast

    Runner-Up: After Love

    Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer

    Nominees:

    After Love

    Boiling Point

    The Harder They Fall

    Keyboard Fantasies

    Passing

    Predicted Winner: Passing

    Runner-Up: After Love

    My predictions mean the following movies get these numbers of wins:

    6 Wins

    Dune

    5 Wins

    The Power of the Dog

    2 Wins

    Belfast, West Side Story

    1 Win

    After Love, Cruella, Drive My Car, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Flee, Passing, Summer of Soul

    2021 Critics Choice Awards WINNER Predictions

    The 27th Critics Choice Awards air this Sunday evening and they’re another often reliable indicator for who and what may win on Oscar night. As I have with SAG and the Golden Globes, I am giving you my winner predictions along with the runner-up pick.

    Let’s get to it and I’ll have a recap up either Sunday evening or Monday!

    Best Picture

    Nominees:

    Belfast

    CODA

    Don’t Look Up

    Dune

    King Richard

    Licorice Pizza

    Nightmare Alley

    The Power of the Dog

    tick, tick… Boom!

    West Side Story

    Predicted Winner:

    The Power of the Dog

    Runner-Up:

    Dune

    Best Director

    Nominees:

    Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

    Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

    Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

    Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley

    Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

    Denis Villeneuve, Dune

    Predicted Winner:

    Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

    Runner-Up:

    Denis Villeneuve, Dune

    Best Actress

    Nominees:

    Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

    Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

    Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

    Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

    Kristen Stewart, Spencer

    Predicted Winner:

    Kristen Stewart, Spencer

    Runner-Up:

    Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Best Actor

    Nominees:

    Nicolas Cage, Pig

    Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

    Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

    Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom!

    Will Smith, King Richard

    Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Predicted Winner:

    Will Smith, King Richard

    Runner-Up:

    Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

    Best Supporting Actress

    Nominees:

    Caitríona Balfe, Belfast

    Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

    Ann Dowd, Mass

    Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

    Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

    Rita Moreno, West Side Story

    Predicted Winner:

    Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

    Runner-Up:

    Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

    Best Supporting Actor

    Nominees:

    Jamie Dornan, Belfast

    Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

    Troy Kotsur, CODA

    Jared Leto, House of Gucci

    J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

    Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

    Predicted Winner:

    Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

    Runner-Up:

    Troy Kotsur, CODA

    Best Original Screenplay

    Nominees:

    Being the Ricardos

    Belfast

    Don’t Look Up

    King Richard

    Licorice Pizza

    Predicted Winner:

    Licorice Pizza

    Runner-Up:

    Belfast

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Nominees:

    CODA

    Dune

    The Lost Daughter

    The Power of the Dog

    West Side Story

    Predicted Winner:

    The Power of the Dog

    Runner-Up:

    CODA

    Best Animated Feature

    Nominees:

    Encanto

    Flee

    Luca

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    Raya and the Last Dragon

    Predicted Winner:

    Encanto

    Runner-Up:

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    Best Comedy

    Nominees:

    Barb and Star Go To Vista Del Mar

    Don’t Look Up

    Free Guy

    The French Dispatch

    Licorice Pizza

    Predicted Winner:

    The French Dispatch

    Runner-Up:

    Licorice Pizza

    Best Foreign Language Film

    Nominees:

    Drive My Car

    Flee

    The Hand of God

    A Hero

    The Worst Person in the World

    Predicted Winner:

    Drive My Car

    Runner-Up:

    The Worst Person in the World

    Best Young Actor/Actress

    Nominees:

    Jude Hill, Belfast

    Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza

    Emilia Jones, CODA

    Woody Norman, C’Mon C’Mon

    Saniyya Sidney, King Richard

    Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

    Predicted Winner:

    Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

    Runner-Up:

    Emilia Jones, CODA

    Best Acting Ensemble

    Nominees:

    Belfast

    Don’t Look Up

    The Harder They Fall

    Licorice Pizza

    The Power of the Dog

    West Side Story

    Predicted Winner:

    The Power of the Dog

    Runner-Up:

    Belfast

    Best Cinematography

    Nominees:

    Belfast

    Dune

    Nightmare Alley

    The Power of the Dog

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    West Side Story

    Predicted Winner:

    The Power of the Dog

    Runner-Up:

    Dune

    Best Costume Design

    Nominees:

    Cruella

    Dune

    House of Gucci

    Nightmare Alley

    West Side Story

    Predicted Winner:

    Cruella

    Runner-Up:

    Dune

    Best Editing

    Nominees:

    Belfast

    Dune

    Licorice Pizza

    The Power of the Dog

    West Side Story

    Predicted Winner:

    Dune

    Runner-Up:

    West Side Story

    Best Hair and Makeup

    Nominees:

    Cruella

    Dune

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    House of Gucci

    Nightmare Alley

    Predicted Winner:

    House of Gucci

    Runner-Up:

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Best Production Design

    Nominees:

    Belfast

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    Nightmare Alley

    West Side Story

    Predicted Winner:

    Nightmare Alley

    Runner-Up:

    Dune

    Best Score

    Nominees:

    Don’t Look Up

    Dune

    Nightmare Alley

    The Power of the Dog

    Spencer

    Predicted Winner:

    Dune

    Runner-Up:

    The Power of the Dog

    Best Song

    “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up

    “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto

    “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall

    “Be Alive” from King Richard

    “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die

    Predicted Winner:

    “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up 

    Runner-Up:

    “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto

    Best Visual Effects

    Nominees:

    Dune

    The Matrix Resurrections

    Nightmare Alley

    No Time to Die

    Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

    Predicted Winner:

    Dune

    Runner-Up:

    No Time to Die

    That equates to the following pictures garnering these numbers for wins:

    6 Wins

    The Power of the Dog

    3 Wins

    Dune

    2 Wins

    West Side Story

    1 Win

    Cruella, Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Encanto, The French Dispatch, House of Gucci, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, Spencer

    Oscars 2021: The Case of Judi Dench

    Judi Dench’s role as Granny in Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast is the third Case Of post for the Supporting Actress nominees. If you didn’t catch the first two, they can be accessed here:

    Oscars 2021: The Case of Jessie Buckley

    Oscars 2021: The Case of Ariana DeBose

    The Case for Judi Dench:

    The legendary veteran scored her 8th nomination and that’s 8 more than her four competitors have received… combined. She’s actually won just once for Shakespeare in Love and that was 23 years ago. The Academy could feel it’s time to honor her again and the fact that she surprisingly got in over costar Caitriona Balfe could be proof of that.

    The Case of Judi Dench:

    As mentioned, it was certainly a surprise nomination (perhaps more so than any other of the 16 acting hopefuls). Dench didn’t make the cut for the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, or even BAFTA.

    Previous Nominations: 7

    Mrs. Brown (1997 – Actress); Shakespeare in Love (1998 – Supporting Actress, WON); Chocolat (2000 – Supporting Actress); Iris (2001 – Actress); Mrs. Henderson Presents (2005 – Actress); Notes on a Scandal (2006 – Actress); Philomena (2013 – Actress)

    The Verdict:

    The tally should continue to be one victory for Dench as Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) is the overwhelming favorite.

    My Case Of posts will continue in Supporting Actor with Jesse Plemons in The Power of the Dog…

    2021 SAG Awards Winner Predictions

    The SAG Awards air this Sunday night and I’m here to give you my take. For some context, I went 4/5 in my projections from 2017-2019 and 3/5 last year. The winners here will certainly help themselves if they’re nominated for Oscars (as you’ll see – not all are).

    Let’s get to it!

    Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

    Nominees:

    Belfast

    CODA

    Don’t Look Up

    House of Gucci

    King Richard

    Commentary:

    I could offer an argument for anything but Gucci (partly because The Birdcage from 1996 is the only winner that wasn’t nominated for BP at the Oscars). The rest of the pics are BP players with the Academy. Belfast is the most likely to win (notice frontrunner The Power of the Dog isn’t here). Even though I’m not projecting its lone nominee (Balfe) to take the SAG and it was a surprise that Ciaran Hinds didn’t make it, I’ll say the cast is ultimately honored as a whole. CODA is right on its heels.

    Predicted Winner: Belfast

    Runner-Up: CODA

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

    Nominees:

    Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

    Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

    Jennifer Hudson, Respect

    Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

    Commentary: 

    Welcome to the confounding world of Best Actress in the 2021 awards season and this is easily the trickiest race to figure out. The Oscar/SAG match is 3/5. Gaga and Hudson didn’t make the Acadeny’s cut in favor of Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) and Kristen Stewart (Spencer).

    Let’s start with Gaga. The SAG winner in this race has never not been nominated for an Oscar so the superstar would certainly make history if she takes this. That stat discourages me from calling her name, but who knows? All hopefuls here would be first-time winners in this category (Hudson took Supporting Actress 15 years back in Dreamgirls). She seems least likely to win. So we’re down to Chastain, Colman, and Kidman. All could prevail. Kidman took the Golden Globe and a podium trip could solidify her status as the Oscar frontrunner. Chastain’s showy role could be honored and it’s a bit of a coin flip for me. I’ll give Kidman an ever so slight edge.

    Predicted Winner: Nicole Kidman

    Runner-Up: Jessica Chastain

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

    Nominees:

    Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

    Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

    Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom!

    Will Smith, King Richard

    Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Commentary:

    Not complicated like Actress as there’s a 5 for 5 lineup with the Academy’s nominees. Unlike the Oscars, I do buy into the theory that Garfield might be more of a spoiler than Cumberbatch to Smith. The SAG folks could reward Garfield’s showy role. That said, I’m not betting against Smith.

    Predicted Winner: Will Smith

    Runner-Up: Andrew Garfield

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

    Nominees:

    Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

    Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley

    Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

    Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

    Ruth Negga, Passing

    Commentary: 

    There’s only a 2 for 5 symmetry with the big show and that’s DeBose and Dunst. Balfe, Blanchett, and Negga are in over Academy picks Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), Judi Dench (Belfast), and Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard). I do think it’s between the Oscar contestants. Dunst is a threat though I’m going with DeBose sweeping until I see different.

    Predicted Winner: Ariana DeBose

    Runner-Up: Kirsten Dunst

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

    Nominees:

    Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar

    Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

    Troy Kotsur, CODA

    Jared Leto, House of Gucci

    Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

    Commentary:

    Like Supporting Actress, just a 2 for 5 (Kotsur, Smit-McPhee) match. Affleck, Cooper, and Leto got SAG love instead of Oscar selections Ciaran Hinds (Belfast), Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), and J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos). And I’ll also say it’s between the two Academy players. This is difficult because I could easily see Smit-McPhee sweeping (he won the Globe). Yet I have a sneaking suspicion the thespians may go for Kotsur. With little confidence, I’ll pick that.

    Predicted Winner: Troy Kotsur

    Runner-Up: Kodi Smit-McPhee

    I’ll have reaction up on the ceremony Sunday night!