97th Academy Awards Predictions: May 5, 2024

Cinco de Mayo brings the second ranked post for the 97th Academy Awards in the six major races- Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Obviously we’re early in the process and, at the moment, a lot of speculation is simply on where certain performers will be placed (lead or supporting). Some examples: His Three Daughters from director Azazel Jacobs screened to impressive reviews at Toronto last fall and has been given a plum Netflix streaming start for this autumn. The title characters are played by Carrie Coon, Natasha Lyonne, and Elizabeth Olsen. The studio has a decision to make on which categories the trio are campaigned in. I am currently guesstimating that Lyonne will be lead with the other two in supporting. It is indeed a guesstimate. They could all go supporting. Coon could be an Actress play with the others in supporting. Obviously I’ll adjust as the weeks and months move along as updates are provided.

Then there’s Saoirse Ronan. The four-time nominee and no time winner has two 2024 shots. Her work in The Outrun premiered at Sundance, indicating a definite possibility for a lead Actress nod. She is also in Steve McQueen’s Blitz which sure looks like an awards hopeful on paper. Whether she’s lead or supporting in it remains to be seen. Apple TV might have better luck putting her in Supporting Actress and that’s where I have her. However, we don’t know if that’s workable at press time.

Beyond the thespians, we have head scratchers like Kevin Costner’s western epic Horizon: An American Saga. Make that Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 (slated for late June) and Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (arriving mid-August). Could the Dances with Wolves maker have another chance at Oscar glory? If so, which chapter books its spot on the BP list? I’m speculating that the better chance lies with the second one.

Horizon will first be seen at Cannes and that fest kicks off May 14th. Some other pictures showing there include Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, The Apprentice, Bird, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Emilia Perez, and Anora. When I publish my next update in a couple of weeks, some of them will have reviews and buzz.

Here’s how I have it shaking out now!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

6. The End (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Bird (PR: 8) (-1)

10. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 19) (+7)

13. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Megalopolis (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Maria (PR: 16) (-1)

18. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (+4)

19. Civil War (PR: 15) (-4)

20. Hit Man (PR: Not Ranked)

21. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-1)

22. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Dídi (PR: 10) (-13)

24. Hard Truths (PR: 23) (-1)

25. SNL 1975 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Here

Wicked

Gladiator II

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (E)

5. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-3)

11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (E)

12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sean Wang, Dídi

Alex Garland, Civil War

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 10) (+8)

3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting

4. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 8) (-6)

15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (moved to Supporting)

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 3) (-1)

5. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (E)

9. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. George MacKay, The End (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two

Adam Driver, Megalopolis

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress

3. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 3) (-7)

11. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: 6) (-5)

12. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (-5)

13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Perez (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (moved to lead Actress)

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Franz Rogowski, Bird (PR: Not Ranked)

9. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (E)

11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Leigh Gill, Blitz (PR: 5) (-7)

13. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis

Paul Raci, Sing Sing

Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two

Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez

Unfrosted Review

To generously take a bowl is half super approach, Jerry Seinfeld’s Unfrosted features stand-up Kyle Dunnigan doing a pretty killer Walter Cronkite impression. His anchor recounts the news with trademark authority followed by darkly amusing off the air grumblings about his love life and alcoholism. Later on, Dunnigan follows up with an impressive Johnny Carson takeoff. There’s lots of comedians and comedic performers in the legendary Mr. Seinfeld’s directorial debut for Netflix. Most of them don’t get the chance to nail their brief screen time like Mr. Dunnigan. A lot of Unfrosted, a mostly fictional account of how Pop-Tarts came to be, consists of stale humor with too many subplots competing against one another.

Even 96 minutes feels long since there’s barely enough witty material for the 22 minutes Jerry used to work in. He plays Bob Cabana, a high level exec at Kellogg’s in 1963. This is one of those screenplays (by Seinfeld and his frequent collaborators Spike Feresten, Andy Robin, and Barry Marder) that constantly reminds us it’s set during that decade in increasingly lame ways. Along with his boss Edsel Kellogg III (Jim Gaffigan) and Melissa McCarthy’s NASA scientist turned cereal conglomerate employee, they are in a race to produce the best toasted pastry treat. In Battle Creek, Michigan, the combat lines are drawn with their rival Post led by socialite Marjorie Post (Amy Schumer). Such lines are not so subtly tied to another race – the space one – of that era.

Rhythms of Unfrosted becomes familiar in short order – a joke or two that work about a given subplot (like the correlation with the nation’s trip to the moon) that get overused swiftly. There’s bursts of inspiration like Dunnigan’s grousing. Bill Burr’s take on JFK is also a delight. Most of the time I wasn’t blown away by what else the overfilled screenplay had to say.

Since this is Seinfeld we’re talking about, there’s lots of funny people popping in for a day or two on the set. Hugh Grant is the very real Thurl Ravenscroft, a true Shakespearean thespian who voiced Tony the Tiger. The Kellogg gang recruits a hodgepodge of kitschy historical figures including fitness guru Jack LaLanne (James Marsden), Sea Monkeys maker and maybe Nazi Harold von Braunhut (Thomas Lennon), and Chef Boy Ardee (Bobby Moynihan) to develop the product. I could go on and on. Mixing all these talents together is bound to produce some amusing highlights and it does on occasion, but not nearly enough. Sometimes the satire totally misses like when it attempts to connect a mascot uprising to January 6th.

A lot of Unfrosted probably sounded better while Seinfeld and crew were discussing it over Zoom. Most of it might produce more guffaws if its Cronkite impersonator were handling the delivery.

** (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Evil Does Not Exist

In 2021, Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car steered its acclaim to four Oscar nominations in Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, and International Feature Film (which it won). His follow-up is the eco drama Evil Does Not Exist and it is out stateside this weekend. The cast includes Hitoshi Omika, Ryo Nishikawa, Ryuji Kosaka, and Ayaka Shibutani.

About 70 minutes shorter compared to the the lengthy Car, Evil played the festival circuit last fall including Venice and Toronto. Yet its distributor decided against a 2023 release and Japan didn’t need to decide whether to submit it as their IFF contender. Their pick Perfect Days did make the cut of nominees.

Now the nation has a ’24 choice to make. Reviews are positive at 92% on RT though not as strong as Hamaguchi’s predecessor. If Japan does select it, Evil has a shot at making the IFF quintet. I do not think it will expand beyond that like Car did. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Not Another Church Movie Box Office Prediction

Tyler Perry’s many cinematic undertakings get the spoof treatment with Not Another Church Movie on May 10th. Johnny Mack directs with Kevin Daniels as Taylor Pherry (in case there was any confusion) headlining. Jamie Foxx plays God with Mickey Rourke as the Devil. Other supporting players include Vivica A. Fox, Kyla Pratt, Lamorne Morris, Tisha Campbell, and Jasmine Guy.

I wonder if this parody might be arriving a little late as the Madea heyday was a few years back (though he’s still making them). This could still succeed in bringing in a decent sized African-American crowd. I’ve yet to see a theater count and that could alter my estimate. Upper single digits would be an achievement. I’m not sure it gets that much, especially given the reported 1100 screen count.

Not Another Church Movie opening weekend prediction: $4.9 million

For my Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes prediction, click here:

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Unfrosted

You might be familiar with his TV work, but Jerry Seinfeld’s cinematic output is limited to the 2002 doc Comedian and 2007’s animated Bee Movie. He makes his directorial debut and stars in Unfrosted, which loosely tells the story of how Pop-Tarts came into our world. The cast is an impressive mix of comedic talents including Melissa McCarthy, Jim Gaffigan, Hugh Grant, Amy Schumer, and many more that are tagged in this write-up.

Premiering on Netflix this weekend, reviews are finally popping up. The late embargo is explained by the troubling 18% Rotten Tomatoes score. Indicating a rare misfire for the small screen legend, this big screen product origin tale (a popular of genre lately) was never seen as an Oscar player. Yet considering the talent onboard, Golden Globe possibilities in the Musical/Comedy derbies seemed possible. Those appear to be toast. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Box Office Prediction

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes marks the tenth franchise feature overall that began in 1968 and as a follow-up to the acclaimed and profitable trilogy from 2011-17. Out May 11th, Wes Ball (best known for The Maze Runner pics) takes over directorial duties from Matt Reeves. Set 300 years after the events of War for the Planet of the Apes, the cast includes Owen Teague, Freya Allan, Kevin Durand, Peter Macon, and William H. Macy.

Originally set for Memorial Day weekend, it was pushed up mainly to avoid a head to head with Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. As mentioned, the last three Apes adventures were a success story for 20th Century Studios. Thirteen summers ago, Rise of the Planet of the Apes exceeded expectations with a $54 million start and $176 million overall domestically. 2014’s Dawn of the Planet of the Apes reaches a series apex with a $72 million premiere and $208 million eventual haul. 2017’s War was a slight letdown compared to its predecessor with a $56 million debut and $146 million stateside tally.

We have seen a recent example of a creature centric surpassing guesstimates in Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire. The seven year break could hurt Kingdom, but I suspect this will manage a beginning very similar to Rise and War and not Dawn.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes opening weekend prediction: $55.2 million

For my Not Another Church Movie prediction, click here:

Not Another Church Movie Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Wildcat

Ethan Hawke, a two-time Oscar nominee for acting (Training Day, Boyhood) and a two-time nominee for writing (Before Sunset, Before Midnight), is behind the camera for Wildcat. The biographical drama is headlined by his daughter Maya Hawke as novelist Flannery O’Connor. Costars include Laura Linney, Philip Ettinger, Rafael Casal, Cooper Hoffman, Steve Zahn, Vincent D’Onofrio, Alessandro Nivola, and Liam Neeson.

It debuted at the Telluride Film Festival last September to considerably mixed reactions. Now it is heading toward a limited theatrical engagement this weekend with a RT score of just 47%. Marking Hawke’s first directorial effort since 2018’s little-seen Blaze (which received glowing reviews), this will not be a topic of awards conversations months down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace Re-Release Box Office Prediction

In the spring of 1997, 20th Century Fox re-released the original Star Wars trilogy to impressive box office numbers. Timed to the 20th anniversary of Episode IV, it helped build already sky high anticipation for 1999’s Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace. Now 25 years after its debut, Disney/20th Century Studios has it back in multiplexes.

George Lucas’s return behind the camera was probably the most breathlessly awaited movie of all time a quarter century ago. It broke records in its initial release and ended up with a domestic haul of $431 million. A 3D re-release in 2012 pushed it to $474 million.

Carefully timed so that the Saturday falls on May 4th (a sacred day for followers of the franchise), Phantom will try to push its stateside total to nearly half a billion. Of course, Menace is not beloved in the way that episodes 4-6 are. Back in ’97, the Star Wars re-release took in nearly $36 million out of the gate. A few weeks later, The Empire Strikes Back debuted to $21.9 million while Return of the Jedi made off with $16.2 million.

Phantom is not expected to reach those figures and may even struggle to hit double digits. Yet with a reported 2600 screens, it should manage a second or third place premiere and I’ll give it mid single digits.

Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace re-release opening weekend prediction: $6.8 million

For my The Fall Guy prediction, click here:

The Fall Guy Box Office Prediction

For my Tarot prediction, click here:

Tarot Box Office Prediction

May 3-5 Box Office Predictions

The summer box office season officially rises with Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt in The Fall Guy as horror pic Tarot is also on deck. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

The Fall Guy Box Office Prediction
Tarot Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (04/30): A couple hours after posting, per the comments below, I realized the large theatrical output that The Phantom Menance re-release is getting this weekend. My $6.8M projection puts it in third.

Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace Re-Release Box Office Prediction

Loosely based on the 1980s action show, the supporting Oscar nominees from Barbenheimer should dominate the charts with The Fall Guy. This is the rare year in the past decade and a half that the MCU is sitting the first frame of May out. Fall won’t climb anywhere near as high as that franchise does to kick off the season. A best case scenario might be $50 million, but I’ve got it in the high 30s. This should leg out impressively over the coming weeks.

As for Tarot, a mid single digits take should place it fourth behind the second weekend of current champ Challengers and Phantom. Scary movies have struggled lately with recent genre titles failing to reach $10 million out of the box.

The sophomore drop for Challengers could have a somewhat wide range. A low to mid 40s decline would be considered a win. I suspect it might see a fall in the high 40s or low 50s region.

Another question mark is the percentage reduction for faith-based drama Unsung Hero in weekend #2. With an A+ Cinemascore grade, audiences are liking what they see and should be recommending to friends and, in this case, fellow parishioners. It might only witness a 25-35% decrease and has a decent shot at being fourth if Tarot comes in under my meager projection.

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire should round out the high six and here’s how I see it playing out:

1. The Fall Guy

Predicted Gross: $38.3 million

2. Challengers

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

3. Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace re-release

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

4. Tarot

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

5. Unsung Hero

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

6. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

Box Office Results (April 26-28)

Zendaya and company fought off all competitors as Challengers served up $15 million in its opening. The well-reviewed love triangle didn’t quite match my $16.2 million forecast. It ended up right in its anticipated range.

Unsung Hero was runner-up with a solid $7.7 million, besting my $5.9 million call. In its first weekend it made back its tiny $6 million price tag and, as mentioned, should hold up well in the near future.

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire was third in weekend #5 at $7.2 million compared to my $6 million prediction. The overall take is a roaring $181 million.

Civil War plummeted from 1st to 4th with $7 million while still topping my $6.3 million projection. The three-week tally is $56 million.

Abigail rounded out the top five in its sophomore go-round at $5.2 million (I was close at $5.4 million). Total is $18 million.

Finally, The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare was sixth with $3.8 million. I was higher at $5.2 million as it dove a hefty 57% in its second weekend.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Femme

Sam H. Freeman and Ng Choon Ping’s LGBTQ+ revenge thriller Femme first screened at the Berlin Film Festival back in February 2023 with a U.K. premiere in December. After a limited stateside release in March, it hits streaming services tomorrow. The recipient of 11 British Independent Film Awards, the sole win was for its two leads Nathan Stewart-Jarrett and George MacKay in Best Joint Lead Performance. It is a feature-length adaptation of a BAFTA nominated short film from 2021.

Unlike like their Independent counterparts, the BAFTAs ignored the full-length Femme despite strong reviews (94% on RT). 1917 star MacKay made the long list for Best Actor, but didn’t place among the 6 eventual nominees. Though it should be eligible for this year’s Oscars due to the spring release, the Academy is unlikely to put it in contention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…