A year ago, Everything Everywhere All at Once premiered at the South by Southwest, therefore skipping the normal autumn film festivals in favor of the Austin event. It now appears on the precipice of winning Best Picture at the Oscars. We aren’t looking at the same storyline with SXSW in 2023 with its debut picture Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves. Could it have a role at all to play in next year’s awards mix?
It might. Based on the nearly half century old tabletop game that inspired many a filmmaker and writer, Jonathan Goldstein and John Francis Daley (who made 2018’s Game Night) direct. The cast includes Chris Pine, Michelle Rodriguez, Regé-Jean Page, Justice Smith, Sophia Lillis, Chloe Coleman, and Hugh Grant. Early fest reviews are encouraging as the Rotten Tomatoes score is 100% based on the limited reaction. The critical takes indicate this will appeal to die-hards of the source material and neophytes.
I certainly don’t think we’re looking at two years in a row of the likely BP winner coming from SXSW. However, Dungeons (out stateside on March 31) is being particularly praised for its Visual Effects and Production Design. I wouldn’t completely count this out to be a contender in either category (especially the former). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Guy Ritchie and Jason Statham’s violently comedic cinematic partnership continues on March 3rd with Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre. The spy pic reunites the director and lead nearly two years after their fourth collaboration Wrath of Man. Costars include Aubrey Plaza, Josh Hartnett, Cary Elwes, Bugsy Malone, and Hugh Grant (who has appeared in Ritchie’s The Man from U.N.C.L.E. and The Gentlemen).
Fortune has not been paved with a smooth road to domestic release. It was first slated for stateside distribution in early 2022. However, the film’s depiction of Ukrainian baddies scuttled the premiere due to the nation’s conflict with Russia. Lionsgate picked up the rights and recently announced the early March output. It has already been out in numerous territories with $30 million in the bank. Reviews are so-so with 65% on Rotten Tomatoes.
This hasn’t had much time for a spirited marketing campaign. In May of 2021, Wrath of Man managed just over $8 million when theaters were deep in the midst of the pandemic. However, it debuted on nearly 3000 screens while Fortune is pegged for around 2000.
There’s also Creed III which should siphon away plenty of potential moviegoers. I believe the tale of Fortune‘s gross will be a mid single digits start.
Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre opening weekend prediction: $4 million
Director Guy Ritchie returns to the genre that made him known in the first place with crime comedy The Gentlemen next weekend. Matthew McConaughey headlines the pic that was already released in the United Kingdom on New Year’s Day to OK results. Costars include Charlie Hunnam, Henry Golding, Michelle Dockery, Jeremy Strong, Eddie Marsan, Colin Farrell, and Hugh Grant. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 75% with most reviewers claiming it doesn’t quite match the quality of earlier titles with similar plot themes.
Over 20 years ago, Ritchie burst onto the indie scene with his humorous gangster tale Long, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels and followed it up with the successful Snatch. Later efforts in the genre like Revolver and RocknRolla failed to make a stateside impact. Over the past decade, the auteur has veered into blockbuster territory with the Sherlock Holmes franchise and last year’s massive hit Aladdin.
As for its lead, McConaughey is badly in need of a solid performer. His filmography over the past few years has been littered with bombs (Gold, The Dark Tower, White Boy Rick, Serenity, The Beach Bum).
I suspect that The Gentlemen won’t be it. That said, it should certainly make more than Revolver (which didn’t get a stateside wide release) or RocknRolla (which topped out at $5 million). My forecast has McConaughey and company just below or just topping double digits for its start. I’ll go with the former.
The Gentlemen opening weekend prediction: $9.6 million
In a week filled with Oscar precursor activity, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Award nominees will be announced tomorrow morning. This comes just two days following the reveal of the Golden Globe nods.
As you’re likely aware, this particular ceremony is made up of voters from the card carrying acting community. The top race is not honoring the Best Picture of the year. Instead, it’s bestowing the trophy for the favorite ensemble cast. This explains why, in this decade, the Oscar winner for BP and the winner here have matched only 4 of 9 times.
Let’s break it down in each category as I reveal my anticipated nominees with a first and second alternate. I’ll have a post up tomorrow recounting how I did and how the nominations could impact the Academy’s thought process.
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Motion Picture
The SAG voters are a tricky bunch to predict and the Ensemble race presents at least a dozen pictures that I feel could make the cut. When predicting the nominees, I’ll divide into three tiers that relate to the impending Oscar nods:
Our first tier consists of movies that are widely expected to be Best Picture nominees and contenders that might potentially win. That list would be The Irishman, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Parasite. I believe the first three here are close to guarantees for attention here. If any of them miss out, it’ll be widely reported as a surprising snub.
Our second tier consists of movies that are legitimate players for Best Picture nominations, but are unlikely to win. This list includes Bombshell, The Farewell, Jojo Rabbit, and Little Women. An argument could be made that Women would be most obvious to get in. Yet I think this could give Jojo the boost it needs for greater Academy attention.
Our third tier consists of movies that are long shot contenders for Oscar attention. We usually see one of these get a SAG nod. This list includes Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, Hustlers, Knives Out, and Waves. The trendy pick here is Knives as it should be quite fresh on the minds of voters. Waves would be the largest beneficiary since it’s received scant awards chatter lately. I have a hunch that Dolemite could register with the actors branch here.
Predicted Nominees
Dolemite Is My Name
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
First Alternate – Little Women
Second Alternate – Knives Out
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
The last five years of nominees have shown one 5 for 5 match with Oscar in 2016. The other four years gave us 4 out of the 5 eventual Academy nominees. In other words, this race is a massive indication of where voters may go.
2019 presents a challenge as there are nearly dozen legit contenders in the mix. Adam Driver and Joaquin Phoenix feel safe. The rest is a free for all.
Keeping with my Dolemite theme, the SAG branch may feel tempted to name the legendary Eddie Murphy here. I feel more confident about his inclusion than Adam Sandler, despite his early precursor attention.
Then I’m picking two spots between Christian Bale, Antonio Banderas, Robert De Niro, Leonardo DiCaprio, Taron Egerton, Paul Walter Hauser, and Jonathan Pryce. Not an easy task. The Globes notably snubbed De Niro. If that occurs here, expect lots of talk about his dwindling Oscar chances. I’ll say he makes it in along with Leo.
Predicted Nominees
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
First Alternate – Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Second Alternate – Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
Renee Zellweger and Scarlett Johansson feel like shoo-ins. The rest is uncertain. While Charlize Theron in Bombshell looks good for Oscar, I don’t think it’s a slam dunk she’s named here. My feeling that Little Women gets snubbed in Ensemble could filter down to Saoirse Ronan and her chances. Awkwafina, Cynthia Erivo, and Lupita Nyong’o are all in the mix.
SAG has given us surprise contenders before, like Sarah Silverman in 2015’s I Smile Back. Could we see something in that order with Mary Kay Place (Diane) or Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell)?
Predicted Nominees
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy
First Alternate – Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Second Alternate – Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Brad Pitt and The Irishman double play of Al Pacino and Joe Pesci should see their names called. Here’s a category where a non Oscar nominee can get in – think Hugh Grant in 2016’s Florence Foster Jenkins or Steve Carell in 2017’s Battle of the Sexes. That spot could go to someone like Wesley Snipes if my Dolemite love turns out real. There’s also Shia LaBeouf in Honey Boy, Song Kang-Ho in Parasite, or Sterling K. Brown for Waves.
Yet I suspect the final two slots will be between Willem Dafoe, Tom Hanks, and Anthony Hopkins. I’ll readily admit it feels awfully strange to predict actors will leave Hanks out, but I’ll go there with trepidation.
Predicted Nominees
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
First Alternate – Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Second Alternate – Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
SAG threw everyone for a loop last year when they didn’t nominate Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk. She ended up taking home the Globe and Oscar. Prior to that, the previous nine SAG winners here also were victorious with the Academy.
Truth be told, this is the category I fear I could go 2 for 5 in. Laura Dern and Jennifer Lopez seem relatively safe. And then it’s picking three slots among Kathy Bates, Annette Bening, Scarlett Johansson (I do believe this is her best opportunity for a double nod), Florence Pugh, Margot Robbie, Zhao Shuzhen, and Maggie Smith. Good luck cracking this one!
Predicted Nominees
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell
First Alternate – Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Second Alternate – Annette Bening, The Report
That does it for now! Expect a recap coming your way at some juncture tomorrow…
My recap of the summer seasons from 30, 20, and 10 years ago continues with 1999. It was a banner year for film in general with many acclaimed features hitting theaters at the turn of the century.
If you missed my previous post recounting 1989, you can find it here:
As with other look backs, I’ll give the top 10 highest earners along with other notable pics and some flops. Interestingly, the list begins at #10 with probably the most high profile misfire:
10. WildWildWest
Domestic Gross: $113 million
The July 4th holiday weekend had literally become reserved space for Will Smith. IndependenceDay in 1996 and MeninBlack the following year both came out in that frame and ended up as their summer’s biggest blockbusters. This update of a 1960s TV series cast the Fresh Prince with Kevin Kline and reunited him with MIB director Barry Sonnenfeld. Critics and audiences weren’t impressed.
9. NottingHill
Domestic Gross: $116 million
Julia Roberts and Hugh Grant were a rom com match in heaven with this well reviewed pic from the writer of FourWeddingsandaFuneral. Our lead actress isn’t finished yet…
8. TheBlairWitchProject
Domestic Gross: $140 million
Truly a phenomenon upon release, this handheld camera indie supernatural horror tale was made for a reported $60,000. Many audience members thought it was a real documentary and it scared up nearly $250 million worldwide and spawned two lesser regarded follow-ups.
7. RunawayBride
Domestic Gross: $152 million
I told you we weren’t done with Julia Roberts. This rom com reunited her with her PrettyWoman director Garry Marshall and costar Richard Gere. It might not have captured the acclaim of that flick, but it made plenty of cash.
6. TheMummy
Domestic Gross: $155 million
Loosely updating the 1932 classic, TheMummy managed to turn Brendan Fraser into a temporary action star. Two sequels followed and a spin-off (TheScorpionKing) that turned Dwayne Johnson into an action hero.
5. BigDaddy
Domestic Gross: $163 million
20 summers ago marked the height of Adam Sandler’s box office potency. BigDaddy remains his biggest live action grosser of all time.
4. Tarzan
Domestic Gross: $171 million
Disney was still knocking traditional animated hits out summer after summer. Tarzan managed to nab Phil Collins an Oscar for a song contribution.
The original Powers came out two summers prior. While it performed decently in theaters, it became a massive hit with its home video release. Due to that, this sequel made more in its opening weekend than part 1 achieved in its entire theatrical run. A third edition arrived in 2002.
2. TheSixthSense
Domestic Gross: $293 million
An unexpected smash, this is the movie that introduced the world to M. Night Shyamalan and the line “I see dead people”. Bruce Willis didn’t get an Oscar nod, but the picture itself did. So too did Shyamalan’s direction, screenplay, and the supporting performances of Haley Joel Osment and Toni Collette.
1. StarWars: Episode1 – ThePhantomMenace
Domestic Gross: $431 million
Its reputation certainly hasn’t grown through the years, but George Lucas’s return to the cherished franchise after 16 years easily ruled the summer. We’re still haunted by Jar Jar two decades later.
And now more some other notable titles from the ‘99 season:
AmericanPie
Domestic Gross: $102 million
The raunchy teen comedy was a surprise smash that introduced us to a new group of young actors and spawned three theatrical sequels and four direct to DVD sequels.
TheHaunting
Domestic Gross: $91 million
Jan de Bont followed up mega hits Speed and Twister with this critically unappreciated remake of TheHauntingofHillHouse. It didn’t reach the heights of those blockbusters, but came close to the century mark domestically.
DeepBlueSea
Domestic Gross: $73 million
Renny Harlin’s tale involving sharks that could potentially cure Alzheimer’s (yes it’s absurd), Sea is best known for a killer death scene involving Samuel L. Jackson.
TheThomasCrownAffair
Domestic Gross: $69 million
Arriving smack dab in the middle of his Bond run, this remake of Steve McQueen’s heist film was a solid midsize performer.
Bowfinger
Domestic Gross: $66 million
The box office grosses were decent, but Bowfinger gave us a satisfying pairing of two comedic legends in Eddie Murphy and Steve Martin.
EyesWideShut
Domestic Gross: $55 million
The swan song of Stanley Kubrick (who died shortly before release), this dreamlike sexual drama with then married Tom Cruise and Nicole Kidman polarized audiences and critics.
SouthPark – Bigger, LongerandUncut
Domestic Gross: $52 million
The landmark Comedy Central show from Trey Parker and Matt Stone got the big screen treatment and translated well to the multiplex, even nabbing an Oscar nod for Best Original Song (“Blame Canada”).
TheIronGiant
Domestic Gross: $23 million
A commercial failure at the time, this animated pic marked the debut of Brad Bird who went onto helm Pixar classics. Its reputation has grown significantly in time.
Now… let’s recount some flops:
MickeyBlueEyes
Domestic Gross: $33 million
Hugh Grant had a $100 million plus earner with NottingHill, but this mob themed comedy was not a hit.
MysteryMen
Domestic Gross: $29 million
Ben Stiller had the previous summer’s largest comedy with There’sSomethingAboutMary. This failed superhero spoof didn’t even make half its budget back stateside.
TheAstronaut’sWife
Domestic Gross: $10 million
This Johnny Depp sci fi thriller is not a title discussed often in his filmography or Charlize Theron’s. There’s a reason.
DudleyDo–Right
Domestic Gross: $9 million
TheMummy provided Brendan Fraser with a franchise. This cartoon remake couldn’t hit double digits.
And that wraps my recap! Look for 2009 on the blog shortly…
As one year turns to the next in short order, it got me thinking. What are some examples of actors and directors who had remarkable calendar frames over the past few decades? The guidelines are pretty simple – the individual must have had two (and in a couple of cases, three or more) pictures that made an impact during 19(fill in the blank) or 20(fill in the blank).
And wouldn’t you know it? My ruminations quickly turned into a lengthy list that I’ve paired down to a top 25. Let’s call this Best Year’s Ever and count down from #25 to #1!
25. Channing Tatum (2012)
It was a busy year for the performer to say the least. Tatum was in Steven Soderbergh’s Haywire, but three major roles made him the star he is today. There was the hit romance TheVow, hit comedy 21JumpStreet, and his signature and semi-autobiographical title role in the summer sleeper MagicMike (also from Mr. Soderbergh).
24. John Travolta (1996)
Two years following his major comeback in PulpFiction and a year following his Golden Globe nominated lead in GetShorty, Travolta’s hot streak continued with three hits: John Woo’s action thriller BrokenArrow and fantasy dramas Phenomenon and Michael.
23. Clint Eastwood (1971)
The last two months of 1971 were fruitful for the legend. In November, he made his directorial debut with the well-reviewed psychological thriller PlayMistyforMe. This began a career of dozens of behind the camera works, including Best Picture winners Unforgiven and MillionDollarBaby. In December, Eastwood starred as DirtyHarry which spawned his lucky cop franchise.
22. Sigourney Weaver (1988)
Weaver won two Golden Globes 30 years ago – Best Actress (Drama) for GorillasintheMist and Supporting Actress for WorkingGirl. She would be nominated for two Oscars as well, but come up short. All part of a remarkable decade that included Ghostbusters and Aliens.
21. Joe Pesci (1990)
Pesci won an Oscar for his unforgettable supporting work in Martin Scorsese’s GoodFellas. That same fall, he was a burglar terrorizing Macaulay Culkin in the holiday classic HomeAlone.
20. Kevin Spacey (1995)
Current scandals aside, there’s no denying Spacey was the movie villain of 1995. He won an Academy Award as (spoiler alert!) Keyser Soze in TheUsualSuspects and as a demented serial killer in Seven. Earlier in the year, he costarred with Dustin Hoffman and Morgan Freeman in Outbreak and headlined the critically approved indie comedy SwimmingwithSharks.
19. Nicolas Cage (1997)
LeavingLasVegas awarded Cage his Oscar two years prior. By the summer of 1997, he was a full-fledged action hero with two blockbusters in the same month: ConAir and Face/Off.
18. Will Ferrell (2003)
Ferrell’s transformation from SNL favorite to movie star happened here with the spring’s OldSchool as Frank the Tank and in the winter as Buddy in Elf.
17. Morgan Freeman (1989)
The nation’s Narrator-in-Chief had a trio of significant roles nearly three decades ago – his Oscar nominated chauffeur in the Best Picture winner DrivingMissDaisy, a dedicated and stern principal in LeanonMe, and a Civil War officer in Glory.
16. Steven Soderbergh (2000)
The prolific filmmaker made two Best Picture nominees with ErinBrockovich and Traffic (he would win Best Director for the latter). Both surpassed the century mark at the box office and Julia Roberts won Best Actress for Brockovich and Benicio del Toro took Supporting Actor in Traffic.
15. Halle Berry (2001)
Ms. Berry had a revealing role in the summer action fest Swordfish. She then became the first (and thus far only) African-American to win Best Actress for Monster’sBall. This was all sandwiched between X–Men hits.
14. Hugh Jackman (2017)
Berry’s X–Men cast mate Jackman retired his Wolverine character to critical and audience admiration with Logan in the spring. At the end of the year, his musical TheGreatestShowman was an unexpected smash.
13. Leonardo DiCaprio (2002)
Five years after Titanic, the jury was still out as to whether DiCaprio’s leading man status would hold up. His roles in Martin Scorsese’s GangsofNewYork and Steven Spielberg’s CatchMeIfYouCan left little doubt. He’s been one of Hollywood’s most dependable stars since.
12. Francis Ford Coppola (1974)
In 1972, Coppola made perhaps the greatest American film of all time with TheGodfather. Two years later, its sequel came with enormous expectations and exceeded them. Like part one, it won Best Picture. As if that weren’t enough, he made another Picture nominee in ‘74 with the Gene Hackman surveillance thriller TheConversation.
11. Michael Douglas (1987)
His signature role as greedy tycoon Gordon Gekko in Oliver Stone’s WallStreet won him an Oscar and gave him one of the most famous cinematic speeches ever. He also lit up the screen in the blockbuster thriller FatalAttraction, which was the year’s second largest grosser.
10. Julia Roberts (1999)
She started the decade with a smash star making turn in PrettyWoman. Julia Roberts ended it with two romantic comedy summer $100 million plus earners: NottingHill with Hugh Grant and RunawayBride (which reunited her with Pretty costar Richard Gere). She’d win her Oscar the next year for ErinBrockovich.
9. Tom Cruise (1996)
1986 wasn’t too shabby either with TopGun and TheColorofMoney. Yet it’s a decade later that serves as Cruise’s year with the franchise starter Mission: Impossible in the summer and Cameron Crowe’s JerryMaguire, which earned Cruise a Golden Globe award and an Oscar nod. They were the third and fourth biggest hits of the year, respectively.
8. Sandra Bullock (2013)
Nearly two decades after her breakout role in Speed, Bullock had a banner 2013 alongside Melissa McCarthy in the summer comedy TheHeat and her Oscar nominated turn as a stranded astronaut in the fall’s Gravity.
7. Sylvester Stallone (1985)
Sly was the undisputed champion of the box office (not to mention sequels and Roman numerals) in 1985, notching the second and third top hits of the year behind BacktotheFuture. They were for his two signature characters with Rambo: FirstBloodPartII and RockyIV.
6. Robert Downey Jr. (2008)
A decade after all the wrong kind of headlines for his drug addiction, Downey Jr. pulled off perhaps the most impressive comeback in movie history. 2008 saw him as Tony Stark in IronMan, the film that kicked off the MCU in grand fashion. Later that summer came Ben Stiller’s TropicThunder, which earned Downey a rare Oscar nod for a comedic performance.
5. Tom Hanks (1993)
There’s more than one year to consider for Hanks… 1995 (Apollo13, ToyStory) comes to mind. Yet 1993 saw him with Meg Ryan in the now classic SleeplessinSeattle and winning an Oscar in Philadelphia as a lawyer diagnosed with AIDS. His status as a romantic and dramatic lead was solidified in a matter of months. A consecutive Academy Award followed in 1994 for ForrestGump.
4. Mel Brooks (1974)
The director managed to make two of the most beloved comedies of all time in one year… BlazingSaddles and YoungFrankenstein. The two features combined contain some of the funniest scenes ever filmed.
3. Jennifer Lawrence (2012)
Already an Oscar nominee two years prior for Winter’sBone, Lawrence’s road to superstardom was paved in 2012. In March came TheHungerGames, the year’s third top earner that spawned three sequels. In December came SilverLiningsPlaybook, where she won Best Actress.
2. Jim Carrey (1994)
In 1993, Carrey was known as a great cast member of Fox’s groundbreaking sketch show “In Living Color”. By the end of 1994, he was the most bankable comedic star in America as AceVentura: PetDetective, TheMask, and DumbandDumber all hit screens.
1. Steven Spielberg (1993)
In a list filled with lots of choices, the #1 selection was rather easy. The highest grossing filmmaker of all time’s 1993 was astonishing. Dino tale JurassicPark in the summer was a marvel technical achievement that began a franchise. At the time of its release, it became the largest grosser in history with the top opening weekend yet seen. Six months later, Holocaust epic Schindler’sList won seven Academy Awards (including Picture and for Spielberg’s direction).
I hope your New Year is your best yet, readers! Have a happy one…
Apologies in advance for the pun, but Warner Bros is hoping for a “beary” pleasing result when Paddington2 debuts next weekend. It arrives three years after the original posted stellar results stateside during the MLK four-day frame. The family pic brings back Ben Whishaw as the voice of the title bear made famous by a series of childrens stories. Paul King returns in the director’s chair, as do cast returnees Hugh Bonneville, Sally Hawkins, Jim Broadbent, Julie Walters, and Peter Capaldi. New but familiar faces to the series include Hugh Grant and Brendan Gleeson.
The sequel received a bit of unexpected publicity this fall as it was originally to be distributed by the Weinstein Company. When controversy swirled around Harvey Weinstein, Warner swooped in and picked up distribution rights. The well-reviewed predecessor premiered in January 2015 to a $25 million long weekend opening with a $76 million eventual haul. Part 2 has already taken in nearly $100 million overseas and has critics on its side, with a 100% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.
There is still competition out there for family audiences as Jumanji should still be posting solid grosses. The sequel may not quite match the earnings of the first, but I’ll predict it manages to top $20 million out of the gate.
Paddington2 opening weekend prediction: $22.4 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
The final major awards ceremony before Oscar takes place tonight on TBS and TNT as the 23rd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards airs. These awards and winners are voted by fellow thespians, so the races are a bit different in the sense that there’s no Best Picture per se. Instead it’s Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture and the five nominated pictures contains one rather glaring omission: LaLaLand, even though it’s the front runner at the Academy Awards.
We do have the other acting races we’re accustomed to, as well as Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture. Let’s break each category down one by one with my predicted winners for this evening.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Analysis: The recipient here could solidify its status as Most Likely to Win Best Picture at the Oscars if LaLa doesn’t. I’ll predict the SAG voters give the edge to Barry Jenkins acclaimed drama over Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester, just like the Globes did.
OutstandingPerformancebyaMaleActorinaLeadingRole
Nominees: Casey Affleck (ManchesterbytheSea), Andrew Garfield (HacksawRidge), Ryan Gosling (LaLaLand), Viggo Mortensen (CaptainFantastic), Denzel Washington (Fences)
Predicted Winner: Casey Affleck
Analysis: The five nominees match five for five with the Academy. Affleck has received the lions share of precursors thus far and I expect that to continue here. Washington is the only other possibility.
Nominees: Amy Adams (Arrival), Emily Blunt (TheGirlontheTrain), Natalie Portman (Jackie), Emma Stone (LaLaLand), Meryl Streep (FlorenceFosterJenkins)
Predicted Winner: Natalie Portman
Analysis: Yes, I’m going for the minor upset here as Stone is the likely front runner. Only the two of them and Streep match the Oscar nods, as SAG honored Adams and Blunt instead of Isabelle Huppert (Elle) and Ruth Negga (Loving).
Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (HellorHighWater), Hugh Grant (FlorenceFosterJenkins), Lucas Hedges (ManchesterbytheSea), Dev Patel (Lion)
Predicted Winner: Mahershala Ali
Analysis: A win by either Bridges or Patel wouldn’t surprise me, but Ali has picked up a lot of critics prizes. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, surprise Globe winner for NocturnalAnimals, isn’t present here.
Analysis: This is a tough one as either of the comic book flicks could win. Still, I’ll go with the only nominated Best Picture at the Oscars. By the way, why Nocturnal is present here baffles me.
Well, here we are folks! After four months of (almost) weekly columns predicting the nominees and dozens of individualized Oscar Watch posts, the Academy Award nominations will be officially announced on Tuesday, January 24th around 8:30AM Eastern time. These are my final predictions. I’ve pontificated all year on who and what these nominees might be, so we’ll keep this simple. I’m listing my predicted nominees in each race as well as a first and second alternative. On Tuesday evening, I’ll have a post up recounting how I did.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
First Alternate: Nocturnal Animals
Second Alternate: Loving
Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Garth Davis, Lion
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
First Alternate: Martin Scorsese, Silence
Second Alternate: Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
First Alternate: Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
Second Alternate: Joel Edgerton, Loving
Best Actress
Amy Adams, Arrival
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
First Alternate: Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Second Alternate: Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
First Alternate: Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Second Alternate: Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
First Alternate: Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
Second Alternate: Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures
Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Lion
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
First Alternate: Hidden Figures
Second Alternate: Loving
Best Original Screenplay
Captain Fantastic
Hell or High Water
I, Daniel Blake
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
First Alternate: The Lobster
Second Alternate: Toni Erdmann
Best Animated Feature
Finding Dory
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
Zootopia
First Alternate: The Red Turtle
Second Alternate: The Little Prince
Best Documentary Feature
Cameraperson
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th
First Alternate: Gleason
Second Alternate: The Ivory Game
Best Foreign Language Film
The King’s Choice
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann
First Alternate: My Life as a Zucchini
Second Alternate: It’s Only the End of the World
Best Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
Silence
First Alternate: Lion
Second Alternate: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Costume Design
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
First Alternate: Silence
Second Alternate: Love & Friendship
Best Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
First Alternate: Lion
Second Alternate: Hell or High Water
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
Star Trek Beyond
First Alternate: A Man Called Ove
Second Alternate: Suicide Squad
Best Original Score
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
First Alternate: Jackie
Second Alternate: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Best Original Song
“Audition” from La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls
“City of Stars” from La La Land
“Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street
“How Far I’ll Go” from Moana
First Alternate: “Runnin” from Hidden Figures
Second Alternate: “Faith” from Sing
Best Production Design
Arrival
Jackie
La La Land
Nocturnal Animals
Silence
First Alternate: Hacksaw Ridge
Second Alternate: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Best Sound Editing
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
First Alternate: Sully
Second Alternate: The Jungle Book
Best Sound Mixing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Sully
First Alternate: Deepwater Horizon
Second Alternate: Deadpool
Best Visual Effects
Arrival
Doctor Strange
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
First Alternate: Deepwater Horizon
Second Alternate: The BFG
That gives yours truly the following nomination breakdown:
14 Nominations
La La Land
10 Nominations
Arrival
8 Nominations
Moonlight
7 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea
6 Nominations
Lion
5 Nominations
Hacksaw Ridge, Nocturnal Animals
4 Nominations
Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins
3 Nominations
Hell or High Water, Jackie, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Captain Fantastic, Moana, Silence, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
1 Nomination
Elle, I, Daniel Blake, Finding Dory, Kubo and the Two Strings, My Life as a Zucchini, Zootopia, Cameraperson, I Am Not Your Negro, Life, Animated, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, The King’s Choice, Land of Mine, A Man Called Ove, The Salesman, Toni Erdmann, Allied, Deadpool, Star Trek Beyond, Trolls, Sing Street, Deepwater Horizon, Sully, Doctor Strange, The Jungle Book
And there you have it – my FINAL (yikes) Oscar predictions! Check back on Tuesday for the postmortem.
Well, hello everyone! It’s Thursday and my first Oscar predictions of the new year have rolled in…
In the past two weeks we’ve seen the Golden Globes occur, which showered its love upon La La Land. We’ve had BAFTA and Producers Guild nominations (that one produced a surprise nod for Deadpool and puts the comic book pic in the top 20 for the firs time). And the Director Guild announced their five nominees this morning, which exactly matches my picks here. We’ve seen pictures (in my estimation) increase their chances (Arrival, Hidden Figures) and others fall a bit (Silence).
On Thursday the 19th, I will make my final round of Thursday predictions and on Sunday the 22nd – my “final” final predictions prior to the announcement on January 24th.
Here’s how I see it all right now…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 7)
5. Lion (PR: 5)
6. Fences (PR: 4)
7. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
9. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
10. Silence (PR: 6)
11. Loving (PR: 11)
12. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 12)
13. Sully (PR: 13)
14. Jackie (PR: 14)
15. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
16. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 16)
18. Patriots Day (PR: 17)
19. Captain Fantastic (PR: 19)
20. Zootopia (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
5. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
7. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)
8. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
9. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 8)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
5. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)
7. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, Paterson
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)
5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
7. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 9)
8. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 7)
9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)
3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 3)
5. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
7. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 7)
9. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
3. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)
8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 10)
9. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
10. Lupita Nyong’o, Queen of Katwe (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Arrival (PR: 4)
3. Lion (PR: 2)
4. Fences(PR: 3)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
7. Loving (PR: 8)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
9. Silence (PR: 5)
10. Elle (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sully
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)
4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)
5. Toni Erdmann (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
6. The Lobster (PR: 6)
7. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
8. Jackie (PR: 7)
9. Zootopia (PR: 9)
10. Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I, Daniel Blake
Best Animated Feautre
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia (PR: 1)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)
3. Moana (PR: 3)
4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)
5. The Little Prince (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 5)
7. Finding Dory (PR: 6)
8. Your Name (PR: 9)
9. Sausage Party (PR: 10)
10. Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
April and the Extraordinary World
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 1)
2. Gleason (PR: 4)
3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 2)
4. 13th (PR: 3)
5. Cameraperson (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. The Ivory Game (PR: 9)
7. Life, Animated (PR: 5)
8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)
9. Weiner (PR: 10)
10. Fire at Sea (PR: 7)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)
2. The Salesman (PR: 2)
3. Land of Mine (PR: 3)
4. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 6)
5. A Man Called Ove (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. The King’s Choice (PR: 5)
7. Tanna (PR: 8)
8. It’s the Only the End of the World (PR: 9)
9. Paradise (PR: 7)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Arrival (PR: 4)
3. Moonlight (PR: 2)
4. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
5. Silence (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities
6. Lion (PR: 6)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
8. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
9. Jackie (PR: 8)
10. Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)
4. Allied (PR: 3)
5. Love & Friendship (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)
7. Silence (PR: 6)
8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)
9. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Live by Night (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Alice Through the Looking Glass
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
4. Arrival (PR: 3)
5. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Silence (PR: 5)
8. Lion (PR: 7)
9. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)
10. Sully (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Jackie
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees
1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 1)
2. Deadpool (PR: 3)
3. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
4. A Man Called Ove (PR: 5)
5. Suicide Squad (PR: 4)
6. The Dressmaker (PR: 6)
7. Hail, Caesar! (PR: 7)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)
5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Jackie (PR: 5)
8. The BFG (PR: 9)
9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
10. The Jungle Book (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Hidden Figures
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 1)
2. “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana (PR: 2)
3. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 3)
4. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
5. “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 6)
7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 4)
8. “The Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)
9. “Faith” from Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
5. Silence (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 8)
8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 5)
9. Allied (PR: 6)
10. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 5)
5. Sully (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival (PR: 6)
7. The Jungle Book (PR: 9)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 7)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Allied (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Captain America: Civil War
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 5)
Other Possibilties
6. Patriots Day (PR: 8)
7. Sully (PR: 6)
8. The Jungle Book (PR: 9)
9. Deadpool (PR: 10)
10. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Allied
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. The BFG (PR: 5)
7. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 10)
8. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 8)
9. Captain America: Civil War (PR: 7)
10. Passengers (PR: 9)
That equates to the following number of nominations for each film:
14 Nominations
La La Land
9 Nominations
Arrival
8 Nominations
Moonlight
7 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea
6 Nominations
Lion, Hacksaw Ridge
4 Nominations
Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Hell or High Water, Jackie
2 Nominations
Captain Fantastic, Nocturnal Animals, Toni Erdmann, Moana, Silence, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Deepwater Horizon
1 Nomination
Elle, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, The Little Prince, I Am Not Your Negro, Gleason, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, Cameraperson, The Salesman, Land of Mine, My Life as a Zucchini, A Man Called Ove, Allied, Love & Friendship, Deadpool, Star Trek Beyond, Trolls, Sully, The Jungle Book, Doctor Strange.
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