Three and a half decades ago, Renny Harlin helmed the horror sequel A Nightmare on Elm Street 4: The Dream Master. He’s back in the genre with The Strangers: Chapter 1 on May 17th. It is the third feature in the franchise and the first of a trilogy that are all slated to hit multiplexes this year. Madelaine Petsch (best known for Riverdale), Froy Gutierrez, Rachel Shenton, Gabriel Basso, and Ema Horvath star.
In late May of 2008, The Strangers was a sleeper hit with a $20.9 million debut and $54.5 million overall domestic gross. A decade later, follow-up The Strangers: Prey at Night suffered diminished returns with a $10.4 million start and $24.3 million total.
Lionsgate is taking a gamble with their release strategy of chapter 2 and 3 shortly following. There’s a decent chance it won’t pay off. Scary movies have struggled in 2024. Titles like Night Swim, Imaginary, Immaculate, The First Omen, Abigail, and Tarot have either barely topped $10 million or come in below that figure. I figure The Strangers may experience a similar fate.
The Strangers: Chapter 1 opening weekend prediction: $10.1 million
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is poised to rule over the box office charts as it looks for a similar opening to its predecessors. We also have Not Another Church Movie, spoofing the Tyler Perry assembly line of features out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
I have Kingdom premiering similarly to 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes and 2017’s War for the Planet of the Apes and even a smidge higher. I don’t foresee it reaching the heights of 2014’s Dawn of the Planet of the Apes at $72 million.
As for Church, I’m forecasting its number of parishioners gives it a mid single digits start and that should mean a third place showing. I do believe it has a shot at over performance, per my individual write-up. It could also flame out in the low single digits (this is a tough one).
There’s no question that The Fall Guy did not exceed expectations. In fact, the action comedy with Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt came in at the lowest end of its anticipated range (more on that below). An A- Cinemascore could mean the sophomore drop won’t be too damaging, but I suspect high 40s to low 50s is where the dip will be.
Holdovers Challengers and the re-release of Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace should round out the top five. The latter’s first weekend back in theaters is probably front loaded. Therefore I see Phantom sliding from 2nd to 5th and Challengers only down one spot in fourth.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Predicted Gross: $55.2 million
2. The Fall Guy
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million
3. Not Another Church Movie
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
4. Challengers
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
5. Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menance
Predicted Gross: $4 million
Box Office Results (May 3-5)
Despite the Barbenheimer pedigree (the pics that ruled summer 2023), The Fall Guy‘s performance was stunted at just $27.7 million. That’s well under my $38.3 million prediction and a letdown considering the reported $150 million price tag. For the past decade and a half, the MCU/Disney has owned the first weekend of May that marks the official start of cinematic summer. With that franchise sitting it out, audiences responded with indifference to the Gosling and Blunt show.
The Mouse Factory did bank some more cash for its Star Wars franchise. Marking its 25th anniversary and despite its checkered reputation, the re-release of The Phantom Menace took in $8.7 million for second place. It certainly didn’t hurt that Saturday fell on May 4th (a sacred date for many fans). That tops my $6.8 million forecast as the first episode is now at $483 million stateside in the last quarter century.
Challengers was third with $7.5 million, on target with my $7.9 million call. Zendaya’s sports drama eased an expected 49% to bring its two-week total to $29 million.
Poorly reviewed horror flick Tarot had a fourth place debut in the cards with $6.5 million, a bit over my $5.6 million projection. Look for this to fade fast as have other recent genre offerings.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire rounded out the top five with $4.5 million (I said $4.7 million) to bring its haul to $188 million after six weeks.
Finally, faith-based drama Unsung Hero fell considerably further in weekend #2 than I figured. In seventh place, its $2.9 million gross was well under my estimate of $5.4 million. The total is $13 million.
The summer box office season officially rises with Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt in The Fall Guy as horror pic Tarot is also on deck. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Blogger’s Update (04/30): A couple hours after posting, per the comments below, I realized the large theatrical output that The Phantom Menance re-release is getting this weekend. My $6.8M projection puts it in third.
Loosely based on the 1980s action show, the supporting Oscar nominees from Barbenheimer should dominate the charts with The Fall Guy. This is the rare year in the past decade and a half that the MCU is sitting the first frame of May out. Fall won’t climb anywhere near as high as that franchise does to kick off the season. A best case scenario might be $50 million, but I’ve got it in the high 30s. This should leg out impressively over the coming weeks.
As for Tarot, a mid single digits take should place it fourth behind the second weekend of current champ Challengers and Phantom. Scary movies have struggled lately with recent genre titles failing to reach $10 million out of the box.
The sophomore drop for Challengers could have a somewhat wide range. A low to mid 40s decline would be considered a win. I suspect it might see a fall in the high 40s or low 50s region.
Another question mark is the percentage reduction for faith-based drama Unsung Hero in weekend #2. With an A+ Cinemascore grade, audiences are liking what they see and should be recommending to friends and, in this case, fellow parishioners. It might only witness a 25-35% decrease and has a decent shot at being fourth if Tarot comes in under my meager projection.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire should round out the high six and here’s how I see it playing out:
1. The Fall Guy
Predicted Gross: $38.3 million
2. Challengers
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
3. Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace re-release
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
4. Tarot
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
5. Unsung Hero
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
6. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
Box Office Results (April 26-28)
Zendaya and company fought off all competitors as Challengers served up $15 million in its opening. The well-reviewed love triangle didn’t quite match my $16.2 million forecast. It ended up right in its anticipated range.
Unsung Hero was runner-up with a solid $7.7 million, besting my $5.9 million call. In its first weekend it made back its tiny $6 million price tag and, as mentioned, should hold up well in the near future.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire was third in weekend #5 at $7.2 million compared to my $6 million prediction. The overall take is a roaring $181 million.
Civil War plummeted from 1st to 4th with $7 million while still topping my $6.3 million projection. The three-week tally is $56 million.
Abigail rounded out the top five in its sophomore go-round at $5.2 million (I was close at $5.4 million). Total is $18 million.
Finally, The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare was sixth with $3.8 million. I was higher at $5.2 million as it dove a hefty 57% in its second weekend.
Based on the early 90s novel Horrorscope from Nicholas Adams, Tarot is the latest scary movie hoping to bring in genre enthusiasts. Spenser Cohen and Anna Halberg share directorial duties with a cast including Harriet Slater, Adain Bradley, Avantika Vandanapu, Wolfgang Novogratz, and Jacob Batalon.
Moviegoers have been caught in a web of horror titles over the last several weeks. From Imaginary to The First Omen to Abigail, grosses have been unimpressive as all three of those pics have debuted in the $8-10 million range.
Tarot might be lucky to do that. Plenty of potential viewers will be preoccupied with The Fall Guy. That’s in addition to the aforementioned oversaturated market as of late. I say mid single digits is (yes…) in the cards.
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