Tag: Berlin Film Festival

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress

My first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards are underway!

We are not even a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation. These are my opening glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and lead actor and they can be found here:

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

That brings us to Best Actress. When I presented my first picks in April of 2025, it produced the most eventual nominees among the quartet of acting races. At this impossibly early stage, I correctly had the eventual winner Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) and Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) in the quintet. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were listed in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) was not mentioned.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we are not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

This inaugural post has Renate Reinsve getting a second nod in a row for Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord and Julianne Moore (No One Cares) contending for the first time since her victory in 2014’s Still Alice. As for Mikey Madison, I’m projecting 2024’s victor in the category for Anora will be up again for The Social Reckoning. Then there’s Sandra Hüller. She’s a threat to get in for Fatherland or Rose (for which she’s already won a prize at the Berlin Film Festival). At press time, I’ve got her making the cut for the latter. That’s in addition to my forecast that Hüller nabs a Supporting Actress nomination for Digger.

Here’s the first snapshot with Best Director up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTRESS AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

Sandra Hüller, Rose

Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

Julianne Moore, No One Cares

Renate Reinsve, Fjord

Other Possibilities:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

Penélope Cruz, Bunker

Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa

Mason Reeves, Josephine

Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

Oscar Predictions: The Weight

Ethan Hawke, fresh off his third acting Oscar nod for Blue Moon, headlines the 1930s set survival drama The Weight. Directed by Padraic McKinley and scheduled for domestic release in September, it premiered at the Sundance Film Festival and has also played Berlin. Costars include Julia Jones, Austin Amelio, and Russell Crowe.

Plenty of reviews are praising this as an old-fashioned yarn with 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. The 70 on Metacritic is more indicative of positive write-ups expressing some reservations. A lot of the kudos are going to Hawke’s performance.

Indie outlet Vertical picked up distribution rights. This is not a company who’ve successfully played much in the awards campaigning space. They’ll need to up their game for Hawke to be in contention for a back-to-back nomination. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: At the Sea

Kornél Mundruczó’s drama At the Sea casts Amy Adams as a fresh out of rehab woman adjusting to family life. Costars include Murray Bartlett, Brett Goldstein, Chloe East, Dan Levy, Jenny Slate, and Rainn Wilson. Sea premiered at the Berlin Film Festival where Rose Byrne won Best Actress last year for If I Had Legs I’d Lick You before nabbing an Oscar nod.

Adams is a six-time nominee at the Academy with five supporting mentions for Junebug, Doubt, The Fighter, The Master, and Vice. Her sole leading try came in 2013 for American Hustle. She probably came darn close to another nom for 2016’s Arrival but was surprisingly snubbed. Recent starring turns in The Woman in the Window and Nightbitch have fizzled with awards voters.

That should hold true with Sea. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is a lowly 38% and this should be lost in the shuffle when the Academy is filling out ballots next year. A long sought victory for Adams will have to wait. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Rose

The Berlin Film Festival is underway. Last year, it was where critics and audiences first saw Rose Byrne’s Oscar nominated performance for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. There could be another Best Actress contender for the next ceremony via Rose.

Sandra Hüller plays the title role of a 17th century woman masquerading as a man for financial purposes. Marcus Schleinzer directs with a supporting cast including Caro Braun, Marisa Growaldt, Godehard Giese, and Robert Gwisdek. The Austrian/German production is slated for European release this spring while stateside distribution is unsettled (though probably not for long).

Rotten Tomatoes stands at 100% with much praise going to its star. Hüller was a 2023 nominee for Anatomy of a Fall and she could rise again here. It is also feasible that Austria or Germany might select this as their horse for International Feature Film. If this receives a well-managed campaign, Rose could bloom during the next season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. We have arrived at our second contestant in Best Actress and that’s Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. If you missed my post covering Jessie Buckley for Hamnet, you can find it here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Jessie Buckley in Hamnet

Previous Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Rose Byrne:

Despite an impressive career mixing comedies (Bridesmaids, Neighbors, Spy), superhero sagas in the X-Men franchise, and horror (the Insidious series), Mary Bronson’s anxiety inducing dramedy marks the Aussie performer’s first big screen awards vehicle. The buzz started after she took the Silver Bear for Best Leading Performance at the Berlin festival. She has landed precursor noms at BAFTA, SAG Actor, Critics Choice, and took home the Golden Globe for lead in a Musical or Comedy.

The Cast Against Rose Byrne:

The recipient for lead actress in a drama at the Globes is Hamnet‘s Jessie Buckley. She also received the Critics Choice prize and is rightfully seen as the frontrunner. Byrne’s inclusion in the actress quintet marks the sole nomination for Legs. You have to go back to 2014 and Julianne Moore (Still Alice) to find the last winner whose movie only nabbed the one mention.

The Verdict:

While she’s yet to miss any precursors and it could be argued that Byrne is #2, Buckley is a formidable favorite.

My Case Of posts will continue will the second Best Actor nominee and that’s Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another…

Oscar Predictions: Holding Liat

Back in February, Holding Liat won the best documentary prize at the Berlin Film Festival. Nearly a year later, it is slated for U.S. release in January and is one of the 15 shortlisted contenders for best of in its genre at the 98th Academy Awards. From filmmaker Brandon Kramer with Darren Aronofsky as a producer, Liat refers to a woman kidnapped during the October 7th attacks in Gaza.

Based on 13 reviews, the pic stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Liat will try to make the final five in a category filled with politically themed subject matter including 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, and My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow. I’ve yet to list this in my top 10 possibilities, but that could change when I update my predictions by the end of the year. It could make the cut though some of the other hopefuls seem to have a higher profile. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow

My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow has a runtime to match the length of its title and it might have a shot at a Best Documentary Feature nom at the Oscars. Russian born filmmaker Julia Loktev helms the exploration of mostly female journalists in her native country. Clocking in at 324 minutes, Moscow was first screened at the New York Film Festival in 2024 before playing other fests this year.

As precursors have begun to name their best of’s, visibility has risen for the five-hour (so far) project. It won best doc at the Gotham Awards and New York Film Critics Circle this week. Recently the Critics’ Choice Documentary voters nominated it for their Best Political Documentary though it lost to The Alabama Solution. Rotten Tomatoes stands at 100% with Metacritic at 94.

The documentary branch at the Academy can be tough to predict. I haven’t had Moscow in my top 10 possibilities for the race, but don’t be surprised if that changes in my next update this weekend. With precursors and those reviews, discounting it might be a mistake. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Thing with Feathers

Based on an acclaimed novella by Max Porter, The Things with Feathers casts Benedict Cumberbatch as a widower going through a unique grieving process. Dylan Southern directs with a supporting cast including Richard and Henry Boxall as his children, Eric Lampaert and David Thewlis.

Feathers was first screened way back in January at Sundance and also played in Berlin. Slated for a November 28th stateside bow, festival reaction was unimpressive. Despite an awards baity premise and source material, the Rotten Tomatoes rating is 53% with 51 on Metacritic. Those numbers won’t fly as we get deeper into the season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Blue Moon

Nouvelle Vague is Richard Linklater’s showbiz centered dramedy that premiered at Cannes that could contend for awards attention this season. Blue Moon is his other showbiz centered dramedy that was screened prior to Vague at the Berlin fest and is getting more exposure this weekend at Telluride. It stars the director’s frequent collaborator Ethan Hawke as Lorenz Hart, songwriter for Oklahoma! on the night of its Broadway premiere. Margaret Qualley, Andrew Scott (as composer Richard Rodgers), and Bobby Cannavale costar.

With Sony handling distribution (it’s out in October), you can expect an Oscar push and that particularly applies to Hawke. A two-time supporting nominee for 2001’s Training Day and 2014’s Boyhood, this is certainly his strongest shot at lead consideration since 2018’s First Reformed. Scott is worthy of mention as he was awarded the Silver Bear award for his supporting turn in Germany earlier this year.

Despite commendable 96% and 76 ratings on Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic, respectively, I don’t see this being a factor in the Best Picture derby. Yet I’m beginning to suspect Hawke could be a dark horse possibility if other lead actor performances not yet screened don’t pan out. I also wouldn’t totally discount Scott or Qualley, but I think Hawke stands the best shot. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: It Was Just an Accident

Jafar Panahi’s political thriller It Was Just an Accident was a bit of a surprise Palme d’Or victor at Cannes over Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. However, its writer/director is no stranger to festival love. His 2000 work The Circle took top prize at Venice while 2015’s Taxi won highest honors in Berlin.

With a cast led by Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, and Hadis Pakbaten, Accident is a co-production between Panahi’s native Iran, France, and Luxembourg. Panahi has drawn headlines in recent years due to conflicts with the Iranian government including arrests. While his works are banned in his homeland, his filmography has drawn acclaim everywhere else and this is no exception. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100% with Metacritic at 88.

Either France or Luxembourg could submit Accident as their pick for International Feature Film at the Oscars. If the former doesn’t, the latter almost certainly would. The French have seen lots of their selections win or be nominated. Luxembourg would be vying for its first ever nominee. I also wouldn’t discount Panahi contending in Director and Original Screenplay. If a combination of those nods occurred, Best Picture is not off the table. After all, four of the last five Palme recipients have made final cut in the biggest category of them all. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…