Nearly 20 years ago, Cristian Mungiu’s 4 Months, 3 Weeks and Days won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival. For the 80th edition of the Academy Awards, it was a surprise when it wasn’t shortlisted in International Feature Film despite being the Romanian submission. Oscar voters have a chance to honor the filmmaker at the 99th ceremony with his latest Fjord. It received its first look at Cannes.
Renate Reinsve and Sebastian Stan star in the family drama and early word-of-mouth is strong if not overly effusive in some cases. Rotten Tomatoes is at 94% with 82 on Metacritic. Neon has picked up distribution rights and it looks to contend for IFF with a strong shot at making the cut.
Getting beyond that race is more of a question mark. Under a best case scenario, Best Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay could be in play for Mungiu. Same goes for the lead performances. Reinsve was nominated last year for Sentimental Value for the first time while Stan got his inaugural nod two years back via The Apprentice. I had Reinsve listed #1 in Best Actress in my early ranked posts with Stan third and the film ranked fifth. They could all still be projected next time around, but don’t be shocked if the numbers fall. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Daniel Roher’s 2022 documentary Navalny made waves with Oscar voters by winning the top prize for its genre. The filmmaker ventures into fictional storytelling with the crime thriller Tuner this weekend. Leo Woodall stars as a piano tuner whose skillset brings him into the world of safecracking. Costars include Havana Rose Liu, Lior Raz, Tovah Feldshuh, Jean Reno, and Dustin Hoffman. Out in limited fashion this weekend, Tuner was first screened last fall at the Telluride and Toronto fests.
With 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 69 Metacritic, critics are kind to the caper. This doesn’t seem like an awards contender, but an exception could be made if Black Bear Pictures mounts an effective campaign in Best Sound. It’s a major part of the plot and the Academy could reward the sonic design. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Writer/director James Gray is no stranger to the Cannes Film Festival as his latest Paper Tiger is the sixth effort to play the French Riviera. Others include We Own the Night, The Immigrant, and predecessor Armageddon Time. 80s set crime drama Tiger stars Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, and Miles Teller with support from Gavin Goudey, Roman Engel, and Victor Ptak.
Most reviews are of the thumbs up variety with 85% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 84 Metacritic. Gray has yet to have his awards breakout despite acclaim for titles including The Lost City of Z and Ad Astra in addition to some of the aforementioned.
Tiger‘s viability is a question mark. It appears to be getting enough critical acclaim, but it’ll be interesting to see how much distributor Neon pushes it. Driver and Johansson (who were both nominated in 2019 for Marriage Story) could contend in Actor and (probably) Supporting Actress as opposed to lead. Johansson’s performance is being singled out as the best and worst aspect of the cast depending on what you read. She’ll hope for enough of the former to grab her third nomination. It’s entirely possible that Paper Tiger fails to register with the Academy though Cannes reaction is giving it a shot. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma marks Jane Schoenbrun’s follow-up to their acclaimed 2024 effort I Saw the TV Glow. Serving as the premiere feature for the Un Certain Regard section at the Cannes Film Festival, the satirical sendup of 80s slashers is shaping up to be another critical darling. Hannah Einbinder (of Hacks fame) and Gillian Anderson star with a supporting cast including Amanda Fix, Sarah Sherman, Patrick Fischler, Dylan Baker, Jasmin Savoy Brown, Eva Victor, and Jack Haven.
Reviews are strong with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and perhaps an even more notable 91 Metacritic. The mainstream appeal for Miasma could be limited, but distributor Mubi has shown their campaigning prowess previously through The Substance. Under a best case scenario, the Academy could notice Anderson’s lauded supporting work and/or the original screenplay. I think this is more likely to resonate with the Gotham Awards or Indie Spirits where Glow shined two years back. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Curry Barker’s Obsession is out this weekend and exceeding expectations at the box office along with its glowing reviews. The horror flick about a granted wish gone horribly awry stands at 94% on Rotten Tomatoes with a 77 Metacritic. Michael Johnston and Inde Navarrette headline with Cooper Tomlinson, Megan Lawless, and Andy Richter in the supporting cast.
This is not a genre that has historically performed well with awards voters. However, the Academy has shown a willingness to embrace it under the right circumstances. Obsession sports an A- Cinemascore grade. That’s very high for a scary movie and the first to do so since Zach Cregger’s Weapons. I bring it up because that movie ended up being Amy Madigan’s Oscar-winning Supporting Actress turn just two months ago. I suspect it also came close to an Original Screenplay nomination.
If Focus Features mounts a genuine campaign, I wouldn’t totally discount Navarrette’s chances in Best Actress. Her fatally attracted performance is receiving plenty of kudos as is Barker’s original screenplay. Obsession will not reach the financial heights of Cregger’s work even if it plays well throughout the summer. I wouldn’t count on it ultimately being an awards contender, but Weapons proved it’s a possibility at the previous ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Set in the world of the Parisian health care system, Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s latest is All of a Sudden with its generous 196 runtime (making Fatherland‘s 82 minutes seem like a YouTube ad). Virginie Efira and Tao Okamoto headline the talky drama with Kyozo Nagatsuka, Kodai Kurosaki, Jean-Charles Clichet, and Marie Bunel in support.
In 2021, Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car (a whole 17 minutes shorter than Sudden) premiered at Cannes to rapturous acclaim. It would end up with four major Oscar noms: Picture, Director, Adapted, and International Feature Film (which it won). 2023’s follow-up Evil Does Not Exist received positive reaction but did not register with the Academy.
Sudden has gone the Cannes route and critics are once again effusive in their praise. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%. This could pick up the same four nominations that greeted Car and I’m assuming Japan will pick it as their hopeful in IFF. Reviews indicate this is mostly a two-hander between Efira and Okamoto. Neon, who hold North American distribution rights, will have a decision to make. Efira will likely be in the mix for lead actress. Will Okamoto be campaigned in supporting or alongside her costar? You have to go back to 1991 (Geena Davis and Susan Sarandon in Thelma & Louise) to find the last time two women competed in that category from the same film. That leads to me to think the latter will go supporting and both could get in if Sudden is a BP contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Iranian filmmaker Asghar Farhadi is no stranger to awards success. 2011’s A Separation and 2016’s The Salesman both won the International Feature Film prize at the Oscars. 2021’s A Hero was shortlisted in the same competition and took the Grand Prix prize at Cannes. So it’s understandable that his follow-up Parallel Tales, screening at the French festival this week, would be looked at as something the Academy might be friendly to. The drama features Isabelle Huppert, Virginie Efira (costarring in the buzzy All of a Sudden at Cannes), Vincent Cassel, Pierre Niney, Adam Bessa, Catherine Deneuve, and India Hair.
So while its resume looks strong for their consideration, the screenings tell a different story. The vast majority of critics are calling this a major misfire. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 18%. No amount of salesmanship would put this in the mix for the top foreign category in a few months. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland is one of the most anticipated titles playing Cannes and its French screening today indicates it lives up the hype. Set post-WWII, the black & white historical drama casts Sandra Hüller as novelist Erika Mann on a road trip with renowned father Thomas (Hanns Zischler). Costars include August Diehl, David Striesow, and Anna Madeley.
This is the Polish filmmaker’s first feature since 2018’s Cold War which picked up Academy nods for Best Director, International Feature Film, and Łukasz Żal’s cinematography. Prior to that, 2014’s Ida was the International Feature Film winner and also made cut in cinematography for Żal.
Reviews for the Mubi distributed title (which runs a brisk 82 minutes) stand at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with 92 on Metacritic. Those numbers solidify its awards viability. Assuming Poland submits it as their horse in IFF (and it’s safe to assume that), this should mark the auteur’s third shot in that race in a row. Żal’s camerawork is also being singled out and he could make the quintet there.
While Ida and Cold War didn’t get into the BP ten, Fatherland certainly is a possibility and Pawlikowski is once again a contender for his direction and his original screenplay with Hendrik Handloegten. As far as the leads, Hüller is generating raves. Her potential inclusion in Best Actress is high though not a given. Due to a fresh Academy rules change, she might even compete against herself when factoring her heralded turn in Rose (where she took top prize at the Berlin fest). The vote splitting between both roles will be something to keep in mind. Zischler is more of a question mark. His costar could overshadow the campaign. On paper, Best Actor looks awfully crowded. Could Mubi go supporting instead? However, momentum for the pic could sweep him in under a best case scenario. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Adapting her own critically heralded play, Aleshea Harris’s cinematic directorial debut Is God Is arrives in multiplexes this weekend. The grindhouse tale stars Kara Young and Mallori Johnson as sisters seeking revenge stemming from a family tragedy. The supporting cast includes Sterling K. Brown, Vivica A. Fox, Janelle Monáe, Erika Alexander, Mykelti Williamson, and Josiah Cross.
The Orion release is generating some of the best reviews of 2026 with 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 88 Metacritic. That said, Academy love could be hard to come by given the genre. Adapted Screenplay is worth mentioning and Makeup and Hairstyling is an even better possibility.
Where Is God Is could really shine is at the Indie Spirit Awards, especially for Harris with Best First Feature. I could also see it doing well at the Gothams. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.
The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.
In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.
Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.
The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.
We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.
You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)
5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)
13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)
15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)
16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)
17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)
18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)
19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)
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