MGM/UA hopes younger viewers are hungry for some cannibal love when Bones and All opens wide on Wednesday, November 23rd. Based on a 2015 novel by Camille DeAngelis, Taylor Russell and Timothee Chalamet headline the road flick from director Luca Guadagnino. Costars include Mark Rylance, Michael Stuhlbarg, Andre Holland, Chloe Sevigny, David Gordon Green, and Jessica Harper.
The subject matter could be a challenging one for holiday crowds though Chalamet has a rabid fanbase that could turn up. The Thanksgiving release (it’s out five screens November 18 before the expansion) is also the only holiday newbie geared toward teens and young adults. Strange World is for the kids while Devotion and The Fabelmans skew older. Reviews are pretty appetizing with an 89% Rotten Tomatoes score following its September debut at the Venice Film Festival.
With a reported count of around 2500 venues, I’ll say Bones gets to mid single digits for the three-day and for the five.
Bones and All opening weekend prediction: $3.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $5.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
As the Toronto Film Festival draws to a close, we have some significant updates since I did my last predictions 11 days ago!
And you may notice that, for the first time, I’m including all categories covering feature films. It’s the initial peek at what pics I believe will lead the nominations. The answer is Babylon (11) followed closely by The Fabelmans (10) followed closely by Everything Everywhere All at Once (9).
I’ve also made the shift of whittling 25 BP picks down to 15 possibilities and the other big races from 15 to 10.
I will point out that some categories (particularly Original Song) are in their infancy as far as knowing the contenders.
One year ago, my projections in mid-September yielded eight of the eventual 10 BP nominees and 3 of the 5 Directing hopefuls. For Best Actress – it was 4 of 5 and 3 of 5 for Actor. For Supporting Actress – 2/5, but Supporting Actor (somehow) was 0 for 5.
Let’s talk changes:
In Best Picture, I’m putting Empire of Light back in and removing The Son. You’ll send a trend there as The Son drew divided reactions in Venice and Toronto. It could still contend in more races than just Hugh Jackman in Actor, but for now, I’ve got it nabbing that sole nod.
Todd Field (Tar) is in the directing quintet over Ruben Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness.
Surprisingly enough, Actress and Actor remain the same.
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) crashes the Supporting Actress party with Vanessa Kirby (The Son) dropping.
I’ve put Micheal Ward back in Supporting Actor (I elevated him to lead recently). He’s in the final five along with a bit of an upset selection in Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin. Zen McGrath (The Son) and Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness) fall out.
Original Screenplay remains the same but Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery is in Adapted Screenplay over (you guessed it) The Son.
You can peruse all the movement below and my inaugural take on the other derbies!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Whale (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Tar (PR: 8) (E)
9. Empire of Light (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (+1)
12. She Said (PR: 13) (+1)
13. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 20) (+6)
15. Elvis (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Son
Avatar: The Way of Water
White Noise
Bones and All
Armageddon Time
Till
Broker
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Living
Bardo
The Greatest Beer Run Ever
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Florian Zeller, The Son
James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Sam Mendes, Empire of Light
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Noah Baumbach, White Noise
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 12) (+5)
8. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (E)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Florence Pugh, The Wonder (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Taylor Russell, Bones and All
Tang Wei, Decision to Leave
Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Song King-ho, Broker (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (moved to Supporting)
Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Chevalier
Park Hae-il, Decision to Leave
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 15) (+5)
Dropped Out:
Laura Dern, The Son
Jean Smart, Babylon
Samantha Morton, She Said
Zoe Kazan, She Said
Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth
Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Best Actor)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)
8. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Zen McGrath, The Son
Tom Hanks, Elvis
Anthony Hopkins, The Son
Mark Strong, Tar
Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans
Ralph Fiennes, The Menu
Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Babylon (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bros (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Broker
Aftersun
Cha Cha Real Smooth
Bardo
The Menu
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Whale (PR: 3) (+1)
3. She Said (PR: 4) (+1)
4. White Noise (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Son (PR: 1) (-5)
7. Living (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Bones and All (PR: 7) (-2)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Till
The Lost King
The Greatest Beer Run Ever
The Wonder
Elvis
The Good Nurse
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
2. Turning Red
3. Strange World
4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
5. The Sea Beast
Other Possibilities:
6. Wendell and Wild
7. The Bad Guys
8. Lightyear
9. My Father’s Dragon
10. Apollo 10 1/2: A Space Age Childhood
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Decision to Leave
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Close
4. Saint Omer
5. Holy Spider
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo
7. RMN
8. RRR
9. Plan 75
10. Argentina, 1985
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
2. Descendant
3. Navalny
4. Fire of Love
5. Last Flight Home
Other Possibilities:
6. The Territory
7. Moonage Daydream
8. Riotsville, U.S.A.
9. Good Night Oppy
10. All That Breathes
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon
2. Empire of Light
3. The Fabelmans
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Top Gun: Maverick
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo
7. Avatar: The Way of Water
8. The Banshees of Inisherin
9. The Whale
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon
2. Elvis
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. The Fabelmans
5. The Woman King
Other Possibilities:
6. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once
8. Three Thousand Years of Longing
9. The Northman
10. Corsage
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Babylon
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. The Fabelmans
5. Women Talking
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis
7. Tar
8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
9. Triangle of Sadness
10. Decision to Leave
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale
2. Babylon
3. Elvis
4. The Batman
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
7. Blonde
8. The Woman King
9. The Fabelmans
10. All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon
2. The Fabelmans
3. Empire of Light
4. Women Talking
5. Tar
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin
7. Top Gun: Maverick
8. Avatar: The Way of Water
9. The Batman
10. All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Song
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red
3. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman
Other Possibilities:
6. “On My Way” from Marry Me
7. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
8. “New Body Rhuma” from White Noise
9. “Good Tonight” from The Bad Guys
10. “Paper Airplanes” from A Jazzman’s Blues
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon
2. The Fabelmans
3. Elvis
4. Avatar: The Way of Water
5. Empire of Light
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once
8. Bardo
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
10. The Batman
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Babylon
4. Elvis
5. The Batman
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
7. All Quiet on the Western Front
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once
9. Nope
10. The Fabelmans
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. The Batman
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
7. RRR
8. All Quiet on the Western Front
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
10. Nope
And that equates to this very first rundown of how many nominations I am projecting for each picture:
11 Nominations
Babylon
10 Nominations
The Fabelmans’
9 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
Women Talking
6 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Empire of Light, Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
Elvis, The Whale
4 Nominations
Tar
3 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman
2 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Holy Spider, Last Flight Home, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Navalny, Saint Omer, The Sea Beast, She Said, The Son, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, The Woman King
Before 2017, the Golden Lion winner (the Venice Film Festival’s top prize) rarely lined up with movies that received Best Picture nominations at the Oscars. In fact, you would have had to go back to 2005 and Brokeback Mountain. Then from 2017-2020 – every nominee did (The Shape of Water, Roma, Joker, Nomadland). Last year’s Happening did not. So it stands to reason that the eyes of prognosticators were heavily trained on today’s ceremony.
The jury’s selection was a bit of a surprise with the documentary All the Beauty and the Bloodshed. Not because it wasn’t acclaimed… it absolutely was. It’s unexpected because this is the only the second doc to take Venice’s biggest award. And that dates back to 1946. My guess is that this won’t translate to an Academy BP nod, but there’s no question it helps Beauty look good in the eyes of Oscar’s documentary branch.
France’s Saint Omer took the Grand Jury Prize (essentially second place). It will hope to follow in the footsteps of last year’s victor The Hand of God, which made the final cut in International Feature Film. Like Bloodshed, it’s also playing in Toronto where it hopes to grow the buzz.
The Silver Lion (the equivalent of Best Director) was bestowed upon Luca Guadagnino for Bones and All. The horror romance garnered loud cheers from the Italian faithful. Taylor Russell, who co-stars with Timothee Chalamet, picked up the Marcello Mastroianni Award, which is for an emerging performer. Though the genre doesn’t lend itself well to Academy attention, I wouldn’t sleep on this picture.
Best Screenplay went to Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin, which made a splash with its premiere and established itself as a firm candidate for possibilities throughout the coming season. The Banshees appreciation also included Colin Farrell as Best Actor. This is significant considering he beat out heavy hitters like Brendan Fraser (The Whale) and Hugh Jackman (The Son).
Finally, Cate Blanchett rather predictably took Best Actress for TAR. Get used to seeing her name at every awards show from now until the early months of 2023.
And there you have it! As a side note, I’m deep into screenings at Toronto. I’m trying to post as much as possible with any breaks I have, but that’s quite a challenge (anyone who’s attended a film festival will get it). Don’t get me wrong – I’m not complaining. This is my first TIFF and I’m continuously pinching myself. It’s not everyday you see Daniel Craig, Jennifer Lawrence, Billy Eichner, Judd Apatow, Paul Raci, Finn Wolfhard, and Sterling K. Brown within a 24 hour period. I’ll report back soon on all the happenings of awards season!
As I always say at the beginning of September on this blog – what a difference a few days makes as Venice is at its midpoint and Telluride occurred over the holiday weekend. The Toronto Film Festival begins Thursday. For the first time, I am thrilled to announce that I will be in attendance and have screenings scheduled for several potential heavy hitters! They include The Fabelmans, The Son, The Whale, Women Talking, The Banshees of Inisherin, Triangle of Sadness, Empire of Light, The Menu, The Wonder, Bros, The Greatest Beer Run Ever, and The Good Nurse.
The fall festivals always cause the fortunes of certain pictures to rise and fall. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Bardo received mixed reviews out of Lido and it has dropped out of my predictions in Picture, Director, Actor (Daniel Gimenez Cacho), and Supporting Actress (Griselda Sicillani). On the other hand, Sarah Polley’s Women Talking looks to have solidified its position as a BP hopeful while Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley appear to be the two likeliest nominees from its ensemble. Cate Blanchett (Tar) and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) have positioned themselves as surefire nominees and potential winners in the lead acting derbies. Tar itself improved its standing in Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. Empire of Light is no slam dunk for BP, but it’s in the mix and Olivia Colman seems solid in Actress. The Banshees of Inisherin may be Fox Searchlight’s better hope over Empire. It drew a rapturous Venice reaction today and has vaulted into Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, and Original Screenplay on my chart. Bones and All, despite some gushing reviews, could face challenges to fit into the BP race. Don’t Worry Darling, due to some middling write-ups, is probably toast.
Of course, we know that festivals are not the end all and be all for final verdicts. For example, Armageddon Time from James Gray seemed DOA after a so-so Cannes bow in the summer. Yet when it played Telluride over the weekend, the buzz was stronger. It’s awards heart is beating again – even if faintly.
This will probably be my last update for two weeks as I’ll be a Canadian for a few days. You can bet you’ll see lots of other individual Oscar prediction posts as well as reviews of the aforementioned pictures. When I update in a couple of weeks, I’m anticipating branching out to all races covering feature films. Until then, you can peruse all the movement (and there is definitely a lot of it) below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Son (PR: 5) (E)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Whale (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tar (PR: 11) (+3)
9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 18) (+9)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (E)
13. She Said (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Elvis (PR: 15) (E)
16. White Noise (PR: 13) (-3)
17. Bones and All (PR: 22) (+5)
18. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
19. Till (PR: 20) (+1)
20. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 23) (+3)
21. Broker (PR: 17) (-4)
22. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 19) (-3)
23. Living (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Bardo (PR: 4) (-20)
25. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Menu
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 11) (+5)
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 9) (+1)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (E)
11. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo
Maria Schrader, She Said
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 6) (E)
7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Florence Pugh, The Wonder (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Taylor Russell, Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Tang Wei, Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Regina King, Shirley (moved to 2023)
Frances McDormand, Women Talking (role not large enough)
Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 7) (E)
8. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Chevalier (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Park Hae-il, Decision to Leave (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 14) (+10)
5. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 6) (E)
7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Samantha Morton, She Said (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 13) (E)
14. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Griselda Sicillani, Bardo
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR 2) (E)
3. Zen McGrath, The Son (PR: 3) (E)
4. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (E)
10. Anthony Hopkins, The Son (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Mark Strong, Tar (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu (PR: 14) (E)
15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (E)
Love and cannibalism collide in Luca Guadagnino’s Bones and All, which has premiered at Venice before its November 23rd stateside theatrical release. The mix of gore and romance reunites the filmmaker with his Call Me by Your Name star Timothee Chalamet (I will refrain from making any Armie Hammer references from now on). Taylor Russell, who drew raves for the little seen Waves, is co-lead with a supporting cast including Mark Rylance, Michael Stuhlbarg, Andre Holland, Chloe Sevigny, and Jessica Harper.
The road movie, based on a 2015 YA novel from Camille DeAngelis, is drawing mostly positive early reaction in Italy. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is a strong 92%. Praise is plentiful for Chalamet (he scored an Oscar nod for Name), but Russell is being called the highlight.
Despite the encouraging buzz, I’m not sure voters will bite for this late 80s set horror tale. Five years ago, Guadagnino’s Name called up four Academy nods including Picture and winning Adapted Screenplay. His 2018 follow-up Suspiria didn’t make a dent with the awards crowd.
MGM/UA would need to mount a major campaign for Russell or Chalamet for them to be viable in my view. I would say Bones‘s best shot could be Adapted Screenplay or perhaps the score from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
How important is the Venice Film Festival when it comes to premiering Oscar hopefuls? In the past decade, nearly half of the Best Picture winners got their rollout in Italy. That would be Birdman, Spotlight, The Shape of Water, and Nomadland. It’s tough to find a recent Venice fest where there’s not at least 2 eventual nominees for the Academy’s biggest race.
This year’s competition kicks off tomorrow and you can anticipate plenty of individualized Oscar prediction posts coming your way. Telluride follows this weekend (with the lineup announcement on Thursday) and Toronto starts next Thursday (I’ll be there!).
Let’s take a look at ten Venice entries looking to create their Oscar buzz over the next few days…
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Laura Poitras, who won an Academy Award for her 2014 Edward Snowden documentary Citizenfour, turns her eye to activist Nan Goldin and her fight against the opioid epidemic. This could certainly be a player in the Doc competition.
The Banshees of Inisherin
The last time filmmaker Martin McDonagh, Colin Farrell, and Brendan Gleeson collaborated, the result was the acclaimed 2008 black comedy In Bruges. They’re playing in the same genre here with McDonagh’s follow-up to 2017’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, which earned acting Oscars for Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell.
Bardo
3 out of Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s last four films were nominated for Best Picture. Birdman took gold with Babel and The Revenant contending. Expectations are that his latest drama (available on Netflix in December) could be the streamer’s most serious contender and it could immediately become a frontrunner for International Feature Film.
Blonde
Andrew Dominik’s Marilyn Monroe biopic starring Ana de Armas (another Netflix offering) comes with an NC-17 rating and lots of prognosticators wondering if it’s too risqué to get awards attention. We’ll know soon.
Bones & All
Luca Guadagnino had a pic in the BP derby five years ago with Call Me by Your Name and then followed with the confounding Suspiria remake. This horror romance with cannibalistic themes stars Timothee Chalamet and Taylor Russell. I have’t really had this as much of a threat for the Oscar race so let’s see if that narrative shifts.
Don’t Worry Darling
Olivia Wilde’s follow-up to Booksmart is a tale of marital and suburban strife headlined by Florence Pugh and Harry Styles. The thriller has been generating headlines for some wrong reasons lately, but great reviews could turn that buzz around.
The Son
Florian Zeller took home a Screenplay Oscar for 2020’s The Father while Anthony Hopkins won Best Actor. The Father is next and Hugh Jackman is seeking his first statue. The supporting cast includes Laura Dern, Vanessa Kirby, Zen McGrath, and Hopkins. Any and all could be in the mix for acting honors.
Tar
Cate Blanchett could be lined up for a third Oscar win in Todd Field’s latest in which the acclaimed actress plays a composer. It’s the director’s first feature in over 15 years after both In the Bedroom and Little Children received Academy nods.
The Whale
Darren Aronofsky directed Natalie Portman to the podium in 2010’s Black Swan. There’s chatter he could do the same and assist in mounting a significant career comeback for Brendan Fraser (something he did for Mickey Rourke with 2008’s The Wrestler). The Mummy star plays a 600 pound man reconnecting with his daughter (Sadie Sink).
White Noise
Noah Baumbach’s last Netflix film was the BP contending Marriage Story from 2019. His Marriage star Adam Driver is back in this adaptation of a 1980s sci-fi dark comedy. It will open Venice tomorrow and it will be my first Oscar Predictions post. Stay tuned!
Horror fans have been conjured, purged, and (umm) quiet placed already this summer with their scary sequels. Now it’s time to escape with the release of Escape Room: Tournament of Champions. The original $9 million budgeted effort took in a hefty $57 million back in January 2019 and Sony Pictures aspires to keep the gravy train rolling. The studio wished to capitalize on its momentum more quickly as this was originally slated for an April 2020 premiere before its COVID delay.
Taylor Russell and Logan Miller reprise their roles from part 1 as does director Adam Robitel. New cast members include Indya Moore, Holland Roden, Thomas Cocquerel, and Carlito Olivero. Two and a half years ago, Escape Room easily surpassed expectations with an $18.2 million domestic start. It even managed to only fall 51% in its sophomore frame and that’s quite solid for the genre.
Tournament of Champions could risk the weariness of moviegoers who’ve had plenty of fright fest follow-ups to choose from lately. I do think it will still manage low double digits.
Escape Room: Tournament of Champions opening weekend prediction: $11.4 million
For my Space Jam: A New Legacy prediction, click here:
It’s been another action packed week on the Oscar predicting front! Since last Monday, the SAG Award nominations came out and today – we saw numerous categories reveal their shortlists. This is when races are whittled down to 10 or 15 possible nominees and it applies to International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, Original Score and Song, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Visual Effects. As always, there were surprises. These include “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats unlisted from Song, The Irishman absent from Makeup and Hairstyling, and Ad Astra and The Aeronauts left out for Visual Effects. You’ll notice that in these categories – there’s more dropouts than normal and that’s why.
As for the top line races, we have changes:
I am finally estimating that nine movies will be nominated for Best Picture instead of ten and that puts The Two Popes on the outside looking in.
The bad news for Popes continues as it’s Leonardo Dicaprio in and Jonathan Pryce out. I still have Robert De Niro clinging to the five spot, despite missing the Globes and SAG. We shall see if he remains in the fold as time goes on.
In Actress, it’s Cynthia Erivo in and Awkwafina out. I’ve got Lupita Nyong’o in the sixth position after a strong week of precursor love. She’s knocking right on the door.
Scarlett Johansson is back in for Supporting Actress to the detriment of Annette Bening. Like the SAG Awards, that means I’m projecting a double nomination for ScarJo. That would mark her first and second nominations.
In Original Screenplay, I’ve got Pain and Glory back in over Knives Out.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 4)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 3)
5. 1917 (PR: 5)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 8)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
9. Little Women (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
11. Bombshell (PR: 15)
12. The Farewell (PR: 11)
13. Knives Out (PR: 12)
14. Uncut Gems (PR: 13)
15. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Richard Jewell
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)
3. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 8)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
8. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)
10. Ben and Josh Safdie, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
4. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 3)
5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
7. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
8. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 7)
9. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 10)
10. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 6)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)
7. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)
8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
9. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: 9)
10. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 8)
7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 6)
9. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 7)
10. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sam Rockwell, Richard Jewell
Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 5)
8. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: 7)
9. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 9)
10. Jo Yeo-Jeong, Parasite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Taylor Russell, Waves
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 5)
4. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 7)
7. Hustlers (PR: 6)
8. Just Mercy (PR: 9)
9. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
10. Dark Waters (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Knives Out (PR: 5)
7. Bombshell (PR: 9)
8. 1917 (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
10. Uncut Gems (PR: 7)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Atlantics (PR: 6)
5. Beanpole (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Those Who Remained (PR: 10)
7. Corpus Christi (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Honeyland (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Painted Bird (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Truth and Justice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Monos
Invisible Life
A White, White Day
And Then We Danced
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Missing Link (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Abominable (PR: 7)
7. Weathering with You (PR: 8)
8. Klaus (PR: 6)
9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 9)
10. Funan (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. Apollo 11 (PR: 2)
3. One Child Nation (PR: 3)
4. For Sama (PR: 4)
5. Honeyland (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 6)
7. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 9)
8. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 8)
9. Maiden (PR: 10)
10. Aquarela (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sea of Shadows
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Joker (PR: 3)
4. The Irishman (PR: 4)
5. Parasite (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Lighthouse (PR: 5)
7. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: 6)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
9. A Hidden Life (PR: 9)
10. Ad Astra (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Two Popes
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Little Women (PR: 1)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Judy (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
9. Cats (PR: 10)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Aladdin
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. 1917 (PR: 2)
5. Parasite (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marriage Story (PR: 5)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
9. Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
The Two Popes
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. Judy (PR: 3)
3. Joker (PR: 6)
4. Downton Abbey (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
7. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Rocketman (PR: 8)
9. 1917 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: Not Ranked)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 4)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
7. Us (PR: 8)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
9. Avengers: Endgame (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Motherless Brooklyn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Waves
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 4)
4. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)
5. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 10)
7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 7)
8. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 6)
9. “A Glass of Soju” from Parasite (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. 1917 (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 4)
4. The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 6)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
8. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
10. The Two Popes (PR: 9)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Joker (PR: 8)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
8. The Irishman (PR: 9)
9. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
10. John Wick – Chapter 3: Parabellum (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cats
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)
8. The Irishman (PR: 10)
9. Cats (PR: 7)
10. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
4. The Lion King (PR: 3)
5. 1917 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 8)
7. Gemini Man (PR: 9)
8. Captain Marvel (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Cats (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Terminator: Dark Fate (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Ad Astra
Aladdin
And that equates to the following pictures nabbing these numbers for nominations:
10 Nominations
The Irishman
9 Nominations
1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
Joker
7 Nominations
Little Women, Marriage Story
6 Nominations
Parasite
4 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Bombshell, Jojo Rabbit, Pain and Glory, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lion King, The Two Popes
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Beanpole, The Farewell, For Sama, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, Missing Link, One Child Nation, Toy Story 4, Wild Rose
It’s been two weeks since I’ve prognosticated Oscar picks on the blog and a lot has happened since then. The precursors are coming out in full force with the Golden Globe nominations out this morning and numerous critics bestowing their awards or nods.
The Globes potentially provided a needed boost to The Two Popes and displayed a better than anticipated showing for Joker.
So how have my estimates changed in the last 14 days? There’s been one change in all major categories with the exception of Director and Adapted Screenplay. They are:
In Best Picture, I’ve put Ford v Ferrari back in and taken out Bombshell. The official review embargo for Bombshell lapsed and the current Rotten Tomatoes score is 60%. It could still sneak in, but with that rating and a lack of precursor love, it’s certainly fallen.
My ongoing struggle with picking Best Actor candidates continues. Whittling it down to five is a challenge and that’s an understatement. As has been discussed previously, I truly believe all 10 listed performers could get in. For that matter, so could Paul Walter Hauser for Richard Jewell if that film does better with Academy voters than expected. This is the first time I have Leonardo DiCaprio on the outside looking in with Antonio Banderas (recipient of some precursors) getting in. Look for this saga to continue until nominations morning.
In Best Actress, I’ve got Awkwafina in over Cynthia Erivo. This is basically a coin flip for the five spot and there’s also Lupita Nyong’o (another precursor favorite) as a spoiler.
Joe Pesci has done quite well in the precursors. He’s in over Willem Dafoe for Supporting Actor.
Annette Bening is back in the fold over Zhao Shuzhen in Supporting Actress.
I’m putting Knives Out in Original Screenplay and that takes out Pain and Glory.
You can read the rest of the happenings below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
4. Parasite (PR: 5)
5. 1917 (PR: 3)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. Little Women (PR: 7)
8. Joker (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 11)
10. The Two Popes (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Farewell (PR: 12)
12. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Richard Jewell (PR: 13)
15. Bombshell (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Rocketman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 2)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
8. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 7)
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
10. Ben and Josh Safdie, Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
4. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
7. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 7)
9. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 5)
5. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 5)
7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 7)
9. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: 10)
10. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 6)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 5)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
7. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 7)
8. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 9)
9. Sam Rockwell, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sterling K. Brown, Waves
John Lithgow, Bombshell
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 5)
5. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 4)
7. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
8. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
9. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Taylor Russell, Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. Joker (PR: 5)
5. Little Women (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hustlers (PR: 7)
7. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
8. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
9. Just Mercy (PR: 9)
10. Dark Waters (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 2)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Knives Out (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
7. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
8. 1917 (PR: 7)
9. Bombshell (PR: 6)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Honey Boy
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Monos (PR: 4)
5. Invisible Life (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Atlantics (PR: 7)
7. A White, White Day (PR: 10)
8. Beanpole (PR: 8)
9. And Then We Danced (PR: 5)
10. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Missing Link (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klaus (PR: 6)
7. Abominable (PR: 7)
8. Weathering with You (PR: 5)
9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 9)
10. Funan (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. Apollo 11 (PR: 4)
3. One Child Nation (PR: 2)
4. For Sama (PR: 5)
5. Sea of Shadows (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 6)
7. Honeyland (PR: 8)
8. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 7)
9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maiden (PR: 3)
Dropped Out:
The Kingmaker
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Joker (PR: 5)
4. The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Parasite (PR: 6)
8. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)
9. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Little Women (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Irishman (PR: 6)
8. Aladdin (PR: 10)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: 8)
10. Cats (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Judy
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. 1917 (PR: 3)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
4. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)
5. Marriage Story (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 5)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
10. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Bombshell
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bomshell (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Judy (PR: 3)
4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 7)
7. Us (PR: 5)
8. Rocketman (PR: 8)
9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. 1917 (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 4)
4. Little Women (PR: 2)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. Downton Abbey (PR: 10)
9. The Two Popes (PR: 8)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cats
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
4. Little Women (PR: 2)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
8. Us (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Waves (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
A Hidden Life
Ad Astra
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 4)
4. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)
5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 7)
7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 5)
8. “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: 9)
10. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)
8. Joker (PR: 8)
9. The Irishman (PR: 7)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 5)
5. Joker (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
7. Cats (PR: 8)
8. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
9. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
10. The Irishman (PR: 9)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. The Lion King (PR: 4)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
5. The Aeronauts (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. 1917 (PR: 7)
7. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
8. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 8)
9. Gemini Man (PR: 9)
10. Aladdin (PR: 10)
And that equates to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:
11 Nominations
The Irishman
9 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
1917, Marriage Story
7 Nominations
Little Women
6 Nominations
Joker
4 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Parasite, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Bombshell, Jojo Rabbit, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, Frozen II, Judy, The Lion King, Pain and Glory
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, The Aeronauts, American Factory, Apollo 11, Cats, Downton Abbey, For Sama, Harriet, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Invisible Life, Knives Out, Les Miserables, The Lighthouse, Missing Link, Monos, One Child Nation, The Report, Sea of Shadows, Toy Story 4
The first significant awards show of 2019 happened this evening with the Gotham Independent Film Awards. And while it’s not as much of a reliable precursor as SAG or the Globes, there’s always something to extrapolate… eh?
I say unreliable because last year’s Best Feature Winner – The Rider – didn’t measure a blip on the radar screen of Oscar voters. On the other hand, the category’s winners from 2014-2016 (Birdman, Spotlight, Moonlight) won the big prize with the Academy.
Tonight was a very good night for Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story, which premieres on Netflix this Friday. The divorce drama took the top prize in addition to Baumbach’s screenplay, the audience award, and Driver’s work for Best Actor. He appears to be a near lock for a nomination in an extremely competitive and crowded Best Actor race.
Curiously, Driver’s costar Scarlett Johansson did not get an Actress nod here for her work. And it was Awkwafina who took that award for The Farewell. This could assist in getting her Oscar attention. I’ve got her as an on the bubble contender. Her victory here over Alfre Woodard in Clemency and Elisabeth Moss for Her Smell could be a sign that she has an edge.
Unlike The Rider last year, no one will be surprised if Marriage Story gets a Best Picture nomination and it could even contend to win along with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Irishman, Parasite, 1917, and Jojo Rabbit. One thing is for sure – this first ceremony in early December is a solid notch in its belt.
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