Set amidst the the world of Tokyo ballroom dancing, Ha-Chan, Shake Your Booty! picked a fair amount of applause when it premiered at Sundance back in January. Sony Pictures Classics acquired the rights and it is out domestically this weekend. Josef Kubota Wladkya directs and cowrites with Rinko Kikuchi (a Supporting Actress nominee 20 years ago for Babel) headlining. The supporting cast includes Alberto Guerra, Alejandro Edda, Japanese TV personality You, Yoh Yoshida, and Damián Alcázar.
Wladkya picked up a directing prize at the Utah festival and Shake sports an 88% Rotten Tomatoes score with 71 on Metacritic. There was some chatter post Sundance that this could pick up awards buzz, including for Kikuchi. That talk has subsided considerably with a low-key marketing campaign and I don’t see this popping up anywhere on the Academy’s radar. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Believe it or not, it’s been 20 years since Helen Mirren was crowned Best Actress for The Queen and she would receive her fourth nomination in that race in 2010 for The Last Station. Could A Talent for Murder mark her fifth try? As thriller novelist Patricia Highsmith (best known for her Ripley series), the whodunit is directed by Anton Corbijn with a supporting cast including Alden Ehrenreich, Olivia Cooke, and Juliet Stevenson.
Murder dropped at the Toronto Film Festival before its October 23rd stateside release. Critics are mostly calling it worthwhile mysterious fun with 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 67 Metacritic. The reaction is not strong enough for this to be an awards player and it probably doesn’t help that Bleecker Street is the distributor (they’re still awaiting their Academy breakout). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
We’ve seen this movie before when a Brad Pitt vehicle goes from crowd pleasing pic not considered to be an Oscar contender to a Best Picture nominee. In fact, we saw it last year via F1 and its fast cars and four Academy nods with a Best Sound victory.
Despite some positive critical reception, Heart of the Beast faces longer odds. Pitt headlines the survival drama with Uber as Odin, his German Shepherd with the two stranded in the Alaskan wilderness. J.K. Simmons and Anna Lambe provide support.
Out Friday, the Rotten Tomatoes rating is 91% with 69 on Metacritic. That MC score is similar to F1‘s, but this is unlikely to become a box office juggernaut like Pitt’s predecessor. That formula won it enough fans to sneak into BP and elsewhere. I don’t see that scenario happening with Beast. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In a year with animated pics that appear to be Oscar players in that category already (Toy Story 5, Hoppers, Iron Boy, Tangles, Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom, Minions & Monsters) and upcoming contenders that have yet to screen (Ray Gunn, Wildwood), it sounds like Forgotten Island can be included among the hopefuls. The DreamWorks Animation release is an original story set in the Philippines during the 1990s. Out Friday, the comedic fantasy adventure is directed by Joel Crawford (a DreamWorks vet with The Croods: A New Age and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish to his credit) and Januel Mercado. Voiceover work comes from H.E.R., Liza Soberano, Dave Franco, Jenny Slate, Manny Jacinto, Dolly de Leon, Jo Koy, Ronny Chieng, and Lea Salonga.
With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and and a 79 Metacritic, the reviews are impressive enough that Academy voters may remember it in their Animated Feature quintet. That said, the aforementioned competition is strong. I don’t think this is a threat to win and it’s not a given that it makes the cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In 1995, Ang Lee’s take on Jane Austen’s early 19th-century novel Sense and Sensibility picked up seven Oscar nominations including Best Picture, Actress (Emma Thompson), and Supporting Actress (Kate Winslet). It would win Adapted Screenplay for Emma Thompson’s treatment of the source material.
Over two decades later, Georgia Oakley (director of 2022’s acclaimed Blue Jean) is making her version with Daisy Edgar-Jones and Esmé Creed-Miles playing the respective roles that Thompson and Winslet were up for. Costars include Caitriona Balfe, Frank Dillane, Herbert Nordrum, George MacKay, and Fiona Shaw. It hits U.K. venues this Friday with the U.S. premiere on October 16th.
Reviews are calling this a mostly successful retelling of Austen’s work with 82% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 73 Metacritic. The general consensus seems to be that it doesn’t match what Lee and Thompson accomplished. However, if the box office is strong, I could see it at least being a possibility in the same major races as 1995’s Sense. This includes Edgar-Jones in lead Actress though I feel Creed-Miles has a better chance in Supporting Actress (which is a bit of a head scratcher competition at the moment).
Tech categories such as Costume Design and Production Design are more likely and it’s entirely possible that this version only pops up there. The score is also getting some shoutouts. My sense at the moment is putting it in BP seems like a bit of a reach. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival is a truly predictive bellwether for a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars. How much so? Thirteen of the past fourteen winners of the Canadian prize have nabbed a BP mention. That extends to sixteen of the last eighteen including the following Academy winners for the highest prize: Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Green Book, and Nomadland. Movies that took People’s Choice and were nominated for BP include Silver Linings Playbook, Room, La La Land, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Jojo Rabbit, American Fiction, and last year’s Hamnet. Since 2012, only Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck took the PCA award and did not receive a BP nom from the Academy.
Additionally, the runner-up and second runner-up designation at TIFF is filled with Best Picture winners and nominees in the 21st century. That list includes Juno, Argo, Spotlight, Call Me by Your Name, Roma, Parasite, The Power of the Dog, The Holdovers, Emilia Pérez, Anora, and Frankenstein.
So… this is kind of a big deal. For six years in a row, two of the three People Choice’s selections from each year were honored with BP mentions from the Academy.
That’s why The Black Ball (La bola negra in Spanish) unquestionably punched its ticket to a Best Picture nod and a chance to emerge victorious. Truth be told, it was there already. The international drama (a near shoo-in winner for International Feature Film in a few months) was TIFF’s top choice. I’ve had it ranked 2nd behind Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey for months. An argument can be made (especially now) to rank the Netflix property in first. Don’t be surprised if I still roll with Odyssey but Ball upped its opportunity even more so with today’s annoucement.
Many assumed Ball would get TIFF’s International People’s Choice prize but that surprisingly went to Simon Stone’s Elsinore with Andrew Scott (in what is anticipated to be a Best Actor nominated performance). This is a nice prize for Elsinore‘s chances in BP.
The real intrigue lies with TIFF’s runner-up selections: Peter Farrelly’s I Play Rocky and Sian Heder’s Being Heumann. The former was tagged as a crowd pleaser upon its screening though reviews were mixed. The latter is Heder’s follow-up to her Best Picture winning CODA from 2021. If this is the seventh year where two out of three make the Oscar BP cut, I haven’t had either of these in my top ten. The streak could be broken this year, but I’d say Rocky has a better shot than Heumann.
It is worth noting some contenders that didn’t make the top 3 from the festival going voters. Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut and Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine were both strong possibilities. I have both in my BP ten and today’s developments are unlikely to take either out. One film that could have benefited more had it been included is Jordan Firstman’s Club Kid. A People’s Choice shoutout would’ve increased its visibility and now I think it might not be a major campaigning priority for A24 (who have other hopefuls to champion).
Bottom line: The Black Ball is rolling and should continue to do so as the season begins in earnest.
Israeli filmmaker Guy Nattiv is an Oscar winner for his 2018 short film Skin and he hopes to be back in the awards conversation with his feature-length drama The Liberation. It premiered at Telluride before its limited November release and wide January rollout via Bleecker Street.
Carrie Coon stars in the 1980s set tale of a woman lured into a cult. The supporting cast includes Bella Ramsey, Odessa Young, Lily James, and Coon’s real-life hubby Tracy Letts. Rotten Tomatoes is at 90% with a 73 on Metacritic.
Much of the critical praise is trained on Coon, who has picked up Critics Choice awards and Emmy nods for her TV work in The Leftovers, Fargo, The Gilded Age, and The White Lotus. She has yet to get the Academy’s attention. Her performance here could be that ticket, but I’m not confident Bleecker Street will mount the campaign necessary for that to occur. Coon will need a precursor or two to increase her visibility. If that happens, I wouldn’t discount her though I’ve yet to have her anywhere near my predicted five. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom hopes to become the third feature in a row in the franchise to nab an Animated Feature mention at the Oscars. Based on the TV series spun off from Wallace & Gromit, Steve Cox and Matthew Walker take over directorial duties for the stop-motion hijinks. The voiceover cast includes Justin Fletcher, John Sparkes, Kate Harbour, Dani Dyer, and Nina Sosanya. GKIDS is handling domestic distribution with a limited release this weekend.
Previous Sheep sagas have lost to Pixar pics. 2015’s Shaun the Sheep Movie fell short to Inside Out while 2020’s Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon couldn’t catch Soul. Reviews for third tale are favorable with 98% on Rotten Tomatoes and 80 on Metacritic.
I have yet to put Bottom in my top five in the animated race. I’m questioning whether I’m underestimating it. I kind of figured voters may glaze over it. However, if titles like Ray Gunn and Wildwood don’t meet their potential this fall, this could definitely nab a spot in the quintet and it might anyway. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
2026’s edition of the Toronto Film Festival continues through the weekend while Jonatan Etzler’s black comedy Bad Apples is out today after premiering after last year’s festival. Saoirse Ronan stars as a schoolteacher unconventionally dealing with an unruly student. The supporting cast includes Eddie Waller, Nia Brown, Jacob Anderson, Rakie Ayola, Robert Emms, and Sean Gilder.
With Republic Pictures handling distribution rights, Apples was finally picked for stateside distribution a year following its Canadian debut. Some reviews are praising its originality and Ronan’s work. It has 82% on Rotten Tomatoes with a more tempered 65 Metacritic.
A four-time Academy nominee, Ronan’s latest didn’t generate awards buzz in 2025 and is having a quiet rollout in 2026. Don’t expect this to pick up any traction in the season ahead. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Based on the acclaimed stage play that won Jodie Comer a Tony Award, Prima Facie has played at the Toronto Film Festival as domestic distribution remains up in the air. Susanna White directs with Cynthia Erivo (replacing Comer) in the central role. The supporting cast includes Daniel Ings, Simon Russell Beale, Elizabeth Dulau, and Norma Dumezweni.
Critics are being complimentary of Erivo’s work. The actress/singer is a two-time lead Actress nominee for 2019’s Harriet and 2024’s Wicked. However, reviews for the pic itself are primarily negative with only 27% on Rotten Tomatoes. I wouldn’t completely discount Erivo’s chances to be in the conversation in Best Actress, but the smartest verdict for the legal drama is that it comes up empty-handed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
