Kornél Mundruczó’s drama At the Sea casts Amy Adams as a fresh out of rehab woman adjusting to family life. Costars include Murray Bartlett, Brett Goldstein, Chloe East, Dan Levy, Jenny Slate, and Rainn Wilson. Sea premiered at the Berlin Film Festival where Rose Byrne won Best Actress last year for If I Had Legs I’d Lick You before nabbing an Oscar nod.
Adams is a six-time nominee at the Academy with five supporting mentions for Junebug, Doubt, The Fighter, The Master, and Vice. Her sole leading try came in 2013 for American Hustle. She probably came darn close to another nom for 2016’s Arrival but was surprisingly snubbed. Recent starring turns in The Woman in the Window and Nightbitch have fizzled with awards voters.
That should hold true with Sea. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is a lowly 38% and this should be lost in the shuffle when the Academy is filling out ballots next year. A long sought victory for Adams will have to wait. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The American Film Institute (AFI) said yes to Nope and nope to The Whale and Babylon today as they named their top ten movies of 2022. Jordan Peele’s sci-fi horror tale was perhaps the biggest surprise of the bunch.
The AFI list, in the previous decade, typically gives us seven of the eventual Best Picture contenders at the Oscars. In other words, they’re worth paying attention to. Coupled with Wednesday’s National Board of Review selections, there’s much to discuss. First, here’s the full AFI Ten:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Nope
She Said
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Woman King
Women Talking
It’s key to remember that only U.S. made pictures are eligible. That means titles like All Quiet on the Western Front, Decision to Leave, RRR, and The Banshees of Inisherin were not in the mix. However, Banshees received a Special Award similar to what eventual Academy hopefuls like Roma and Parasite nabbed.
I went 7 for 10 on my predictions. I correctly named Avatar, Elvis, Everything Everywhere…, The Fabelmans, Top Gun: Maverick, The Woman King, and Women Talking. I didn’t name Nope, She Said, and Tár. Instead I picked Babylon, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, and Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio. For She Said and Tár especially, these were important nods considering they missed NBR (as did Nope).
Let’s start with the films that made the AFI and NBR lists. I’m counting Banshees with its AFI Special Award shout-out and there’s six more: Avatar: The Way of Water, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Top Gun: Maverick, The Woman King, and Women Talking. This is a list you want to be on when it comes to an Oscar BP nom.
In the previous five years, ten pictures that made AFI and NBR were ignored by the Academy. They are 2017’s The Florida Project, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, First Reformed, and Eighth Grade (all from 2018), Knives Out and Richard Jewell from 2019, Da 5 Bloods and Soul in 2020, and last year’s The Tragedy of Macbeth.
If history is our guide, at least one of the seven from 2022 will miss out. Looking at the list, The Woman King is probably most vulnerable. That said, I’ve yet it to include it in my Oscar ten and the stock is rising.
In the past five years, only five pics have missed AFI and NBR (including Special Awards) and received a BP nod from the Academy. They are Darkest Hour from 2017, Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice in 2018, The Father in 2020, and last year’s Drive My Car.
What about the movies that didn’t make AFI or NBR in 2022? That list includes Babylon, The Whale, Triangle of Sadness, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, All Quiet o the Western Front, and Decision to Leave. The last two weren’t eligible for AFI. Nevertheless this isn’t a list you want to be on though the outlook isn’t completely dire.
If history guides us again, 2 of the aforementioned 2022 titles could still get love from Oscar. Perhaps Monday’s Golden Globes nods will save some of them. There’s no doubt that Babylon and The Whale are looking shakier for Academy inclusion after this week. They need some attention from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.
I’ll have my Golden Globe nominations recap up Monday and if you missed my predictions on them, you can find them here:
We have reached 2018 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut? If you missed my write-ups centered on 2009-17, they are linked at the bottom of the post.
2018 is a tricky year to winnow down. In fact, all 8 nominees have strong cases to make the final five. Only one thing is for sure. Peter Farrelly’s Green Book is one of the five considering it won Best Picture. It stands as one of the more surprising (and derided) victors in recent years. The race relations drama went an impressive 3/5 on its nominations – taking Picture, Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali), and Original Screenplay and missing Actor (Viggo Mortensen) and Film Editing.
So what of the other seven hopefuls? Here’s my speculation:
Black Panther
The only MCU flick (and for that matter comic book adaptation) to score a BP nom was Ryan Coogler’s phenomenon with Chadwick Boseman as the title character. Its seven nominations included three wins for Score, Production Design, and Costume Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Besides BP, the other six mentions were all technical. It missed directing, any acting inclusions, screenplay, and even editing. It’s hard to leave this out though that’s the case with everything here.
BlacKkKlansman
Spike Lee received his first and only Oscar for his adapted screenplay. That’s the only victory of the night among its six total nods as Lee did make the quintet for direction. The others were Supporting Actor (Adam Driver), Score, and Film Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Had this not taken Adapted Screenplay, I’d leave this off. Yet that win has me (somewhat reluctantly) leaving it in.
Bohemian Rhapsody
Rami Malek was crowned Best Actor for his performance as Queen frontman Freddie Mercury in the biopic. Despite mixed reviews, Rhapsody was successful in four of its five noms. Picture is the only race it didn’t win as it took Actor, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Film Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. That 80% ratio solidifies it even without attention for the direction or screenplay.
The Favourite
The period piece from Yorgos Lanthimos tied all nominees with 10. The lone victory was an unexpected one as Olivia Colman took Best Actress over the favored Glenn Close (The Wife).
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Despite the 10% ratio, it still led all contenders with key placements in Director, two Supporting Actress bids (Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz), Original Screenplay, and Editing.
Roma
Alfonso Cuaron was your Best Director in the Mexican drama that was the other picture with 10 nods. It also won Foreign Language Film and Cinematography while contending in Actress (Yalitza Aparicio), Supporting Actress (Marina de Tavira), Original Screenplay, both Sound competitions, and Production Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes and easily. The Netflix property was supposed to be the streamer’s first BP (they’re still waiting) and was favored before that Book upset.
A Star Is Born
Bradley Cooper’s version of the frequently remade melodrama achieved 8 nominations and one win for the director’s duet with costar Lady Gaga “Shallow” in Original Song. Both Cooper and Gaga were up for their acting as was Sam Elliot in Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Sound Mixing, and Cinematography.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, but another tough call. Star‘s shine with voters seemed to dim as the season wore on. This is evidenced by it missing directing and editing.
Vice
This is a good time to point out that all 8 BP hopefuls won at least one statue. Adam McKay’s biopic of former Vice President Cheney (played by Christian Bale) took home the Makeup and Hairstyling award. Other noms were for the direction, Bale, Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell), Supporting Actress (Amy Adams), Original Screenplay, and Film Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No and I really struggled here. Vice landed mentions everywhere it needed to. The so-so critical reaction made it a tad easier to leave it out. Simply put, this could’ve been in over BlacKkKlansman or Bohemian, but I had to make the judgment call.
So that means my 2018 final five is:
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
I’ll have my post for 2019 up soon! The 2009-17 write-ups are here:
Ali Abbasi’s 2018 fantasy Border won plenty of acclaim and was Sweden’s designee for International Feature Film. It didn’t end up making the final cut, but it did score a nomination for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (coming up short to Vice).
The filmmaker’s latest is the crime thriller Holy Spider and its Cannes premiere is drawing plenty of solid critical attention. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 88%. Zar Amir Ebrahimi is a reporter tracking Mehdi Bajestani’s serial killer. Said to be dark and gruesome, it would need a spirited Oscar campaign to contend for International Feature Film. My hunch is it ends up on the outside looking in like Border did. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My Case Of posts for the 10 Best Picture nominees is down to our third entry and that’s Adam McKay’s end of the world black comedy Don’t Look Up. If you missed the first two covering Belfast and CODA, you can find them here:
The Netflix property has probably received more social media chatter and buzz than any of the other hopefuls (with the possible exception of Dune). The streaming numbers were said to be massive so it is certainly one of the most widely seen contenders. For McKay, it marks his third BP nominee in a row behind 2015’s The Big Short and 2018’s Vice.
The Case Against Don’t Look Up:
That aforementioned chatter was definitely not all positive. Reviews were mixed and Up‘s 56% Rotten Tomatoes score is easily the worst of the lot (the next lowest is Nightmare Alley at 80%). While some viewers sang its praises, plenty more derided it. This also missed key races like Director and any of the actors involved (Leonardo DiCaprio was likely close but no cigar in Actor).
The Verdict:
Netflix could be well on its way to its inaugural BP statue and that would be for The Power of the Dog. Their other hopeful is too divisive to have a shot and its total of four nominations is on the low end of the scale.
Two significant Academy precursors are coming our way tomorrow when the Directors and Producers Guilds of America reveal nominees. Both groups could shed major light on who and what we will see on Oscar nomination morning in less than two weeks.
The DGA nominates five directors for their top prize and it is a reliable preview for usually 4 of the 5 eventual hopefuls at the big show. In the past five years, the DGA’s list corresponds with the Academy’s on the 4 of 5 ratio. The exception was 2018 when it was 3/5. You have to go back to 2009 to find the last year in which there was a perfect match.
For weeks, my Oscar projections in Best Director has remained consistent: Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Steven Spielberg (West Side Story), and Denis Villeneuve (Dune). That’s probably the safest lineup to predict for DGA as well, but I’m hesitant to do so since it’s been over a decade with the two corresponding.
So who’s vulnerable and who could rise up? It’s hard to see Campion (the Oscar frontrunner), Villeneuve, or Spielberg missing. Same generally goes for Branagh though there’s whispers that Belfast could be slipping a bit (still not enough for me to take him out). That leaves Anderson and there’s some precedent. In 2017, the Academy nominated him for Phantom Thread while DGA omitted him. He’s the easiest to leave off their ballot.
Who takes his place? I doubt that it’s Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car. In recent times, the Academy has been more generous with nods for filmmakers and their international features. Last year, they nominated Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) and in 2018 they did the same for Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War) while DGA ignored them.
If there’s a surprise fifth nominee in store, watch out for Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley), Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter) or Sian Heder (CODA). However, I think it could come down to Joel Coen (The Tragedy of Macbeth) and Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up). The latter is a two-time DGA nominee (The Big Short and Vice) and Don’t Look Up is a buzzy streaming success story that’s been widely viewed. Coen, on the other hand, could be honored for the technical mastery of Macbeth.
This is a close call, but I’m ever so slightly leaning toward McKay and I’ll go that route. Therefore – my official DGA predictions are:
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Runner-Up: Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Second Alternate: Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Let’s move to the PGA, shall we? Over the last five years, these are the matches between the Producers and the Academy when it comes to their Best Picture awards:
2016: 9/9
2017: 7/9
2018: 8/8
2019: 9/9
2020: 7/8
It’s important to keep in mind that the Academy, for the past several years, can have anywhere between 5-10 BP contenders (the magic number has been 8 or 9). Yet in 2021, the Oscars are reverting back to a set 10 (the PGA always nominates 10 except for 2017 when they had 11 for some inexplicable reason).
That means there’s only been three films (Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread in 2017 and The Father in 2020) that received Oscar nods and didn’t materialize on the PGA list.
My current 10 selections for BP from the Academy are as follows: Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, Dune, House of Gucci, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story.
I’m estimating that only Gucci and Tragedy could be truly vulnerable to miss the PGA cut (anything else being left off would constitute a pretty big surprise). If that happens, CODA or Richard might be the ones.
In my view, Tragedy is exactly the kind of feature that PGA may not recognize. Gucci is more of a question mark as the Producers generally like to nominate pictures that performed well at the box office. To that point, the PGA has a history of honoring moneymakers that the Academy does not. Recent examples include Bridesmaids, Skyfall, Gone Girl, Straight Outta Compton, Deadpool, Wonder Woman, Crazy Rich Asians, A Quiet Place, and Knives Out.
That could absolutely open the door for No Time to Die or Spider-Man: No Way Home… or both. I’m slightly more hesitant to include Spidey being that neither Avengers: Infinity War or Endgame got PGA love. However, I’m not oblivious to the fact that this guild may want to mention the picture that broke pandemic era box office records.
Outside of the blockbuster mold, you could also see titles like Being the Ricardos, Drive My Car, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley, or Tick, Tick… Boom! factor in.
I’m keeping Gucci in (with extreme uncertainty) and projecting 007 in the mega-earner slot so here’s my PGA ten:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
House of Gucci
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Spider-Man: No Way Home
Second Alternate: The Tragedy of Macbeth
So there you have it! I’ll have reaction up on both DGA and PGA tomorrow on the blog…
Five years ago, the Best Actress race at the Oscars came down to Emma Stone (La La Land) and Natalie Portman (Jackie) with the former taking the gold. That was no surprise but the category featured one of the more shocking omissions in recent Academy history.
Denis Villeneuve’s deservedly acclaimed sci-fi pic Arrival scored 8 nominations, including Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay. It won a sole award in Sound Editing. That was a nice haul, but the glue that held the whole film together somehow went unnoticed.
By 2016, Amy Adams had already received five nods – one in lead for 2013’s American Hustle and four supporting bids with 2005’s Junebug, 2008’s Doubt, 2010’s The Fighter, and 2012’s The Master. She had gone 0 for 5 but surely her extraordinary work in Arrival would mark a sixth attempt.
It didn’t happen. That’s despite being nominated at the Critics Choice Awards, Golden Globes, and SAG Awards. Besides Stone and Portman, the other three nominees were Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), and Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins). This one is simple. Take out Streep. Put in Adams.
What’s even more remarkable is that after Arrival‘s ingenious twist ending, the performance of Adams becomes even more impressive and emotionally resonant on the rewatch. The actress would get her sixth nod three years later in supporting for Vice and I’d argue she didn’t deserve to make that final five. It should have arrived with Arrival and it stands as a massive snub.
Up until the last couple of weeks, I’ve had Adam McKay’s political satire Don’t Look Up on the outskirts of my predicted 10 Best Picture nominees. After all, just how many Netflix contenders will get in? I figured The Power of the Dog would be their main play and there’s other possibilities with Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Lost Daughter, and Passing.
I recently vaulted it into the fold of ten and (better late than never), that appears to be the right call. Before its eagerly awaited December 10th limited bow in theaters and Christmas Eve Netflix premiere, Up has screened for critics. The social media reaction is leaning toward the positive with particular shoutouts for certain elements and performers.
The star-studded cast is filled with previous Oscar winners and nominees: Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, Jonah Hill, Mark Rylance, Timothee Chalamet, Cate Blanchett, and Meryl Streep. There’s also Rob Morgan, Tyler Perry, Ron Perlman, Ariana Grande, Kid Cudi, Chris Evans, Matthew Perry, and Himesh Patel.
McKay’s last two pics (2015’s The Big Short and 2018’s Vice) were both up in the biggest race of all. His original screenplay detailing the end of the world should be recognized. I’m not as confident he’ll make it for directing though I will note that he made the cut for the previous two and it’s certainly feasible. While Dog may continue to be the Netflix flick I rank higher when I update my forecast Sunday, I don’t see Up moving down the charts and out of the 10.
As for the massive list of performers, the early word is that Leo could vie for his seventh nod (his sole win came for 2015’s The Revenant). He still needs to get past other sturdy thespians. I do like his chances better tonight than I did earlier today. With Lawrence, Best Actress is overflowing with hopefuls and I doubt she lands #5. Ms. Streep is going for her 22nd trip to the dance. Her work as the President here is being mentioned in the laudatory tweets. Supporting Actress has got its share of contenders too, but betting against Meryl is always risky. Supporting Actor is wide open at the moment yet I’m skeptical about Hill or Rylance (or the many others). If Netflix goes all in on one of them, that dynamic could shift.
Surprisingly enough, its most assured nomination could come with Ariana Grande. Not for Supporting Actress (her part is said to be brief), but for her Original Song “Just Look Up”. Editing seems a safe bet as does Score and other down the line races like Sound and Visual Effects are possible.
Bottom line: it’s looking up for Don’t Look Up to get up to a handful of nominations. My Oscar Predictions posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
Junebug. Doubt. The Fighter. The Master. American Hustle. Vice.
The World According to Garp. The Big Chill. The Natural. Fatal Attraction. Dangerous Liaisons. Albert Nobbs. The Wife.
These 13 pictures represent, respectively, the number of Oscar nominations received by Amy Adams and Glenn Close. And there’s not a podium trip for either performer in the whole batch. It’s certainly fair to say that these actresses are both considered overdue for Academy gold. So it is no surprise that their headlining roles in Ron Howard’s Hillbilly Elegy have been circled for consideration of Oscar prognosticators for many months.
Based on J.D. Vance’s hugely popular 2016 bestseller, the adaptation hits Netflix on November 24th. The review embargo ended today. The critics have spoken and done so rather sharply. At press time, the Rotten Tomatoes score stands at a troubling 19%. However, before you write off the pic’s chances for any awards attention, you have to dig a bit deeper.
The trailer released weeks ago was met with some derision, but also some chatter that Close in particular has a very baity part for voters. The reviews today solidify that. I have had Close perched at #1 for some time in my weekly estimates in Supporting Actress. It is certainly possible that she stays right there when I update my projections on Friday. Ironically, her biggest competition may come from Olivia Colman in The Father. For those with short memories, it was Colman in The Favourite who scored an upset win over Close for The Wife in Best Actress just two years ago. There’s also Amanda Seyfried (Mank) generating solid buzz. That said, the 8th time may just finally be the charm for Close. Whether she can overcome the otherwise poor reaction from the critical community will be the question moving forward.
As for Adams, it’s more murky. Best Actress in 2020 is already shaping up as a crowded field. I’ve had Adams listed in third position for about a month, but now I’m questioning whether she even makes the final cut. Look for her to be in the 5-7 range when my Friday post is up and running.
Elegy could follow the example of 2013’s August: Osage County where its only nominations come for its two high-profile actresses (in that case it was Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts). The mostly weak reviews probably take it out of contention for Picture and Director. Same goes for the Adapted Screenplay by Vanessa Taylor (who was nominated in 2017 for her Original Screenplay in The Shape of Water). Lucky for Netflix, it has plenty of product that does appear headed for Best Picture inclusion (from The Trial of the Chicago 7 to Mank to Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). There are two more nods that are feasible: Hans Zimmer’s score and its Makeup and Hairstyling.
Bottom line: Close is still a contender, but that’s the only category where I believe a victory is even imaginable. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Continuing with my series showcasing the voluminous amount of Oscar nominees and winners that have appeared in the 25 Marvel Cinematic Universe pictures (including the upcoming Black Widow and The Eternals), we arrive at Best Supporting Actor.
If you missed my previous posts covering the lead performers in Actor and Actress, you can find them here:
Supporting Actor, of the four acting categories, contains the most nominees at 36. However, there are only 4 wins represented. As a reminder, the MCU has given us 110 total nominees and 20 golden recipients.
Let’s start with the four gentlemen who made a trip to the podium:
Sam Rockwell, who costarred in Iron Man 2, took gold in 2017 for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Tommy Lee Jones, who appeared in Captain America: First Avenger, emerged victorious in 1993 for The Fugitive
Benicio del Toro, who memorably appeared in Guardians of the Galaxy, won in 2000 for Traffic
J.K. Simmons, who popped up in Spider-Man: Far From Home reprising his role as J. Jonah Jameson from the original Spidey trilogy, won in 2014 for Whiplash
And now the 29 additional performers who received nods:
Tony Stark himself, Robert Downey Jr., received a nomination in 2008 for Tropic Thunder
Jeff Bridges, the Iron Man villain, is a four-time nominee for 1971’s The Last Picture Show, 1974’s Thunderbolt and Lightfoot, 2000’s The Contender, and Hell or High Water in 2016
Samuel L. Jackson, who has played Nick Fury in numerous MCU entries, got a nod in 1994 for Pulp Fiction
Edward Norton, who was the Hulk before Mark Ruffalo, is a two-time nominee for 1996’s Primal Fear and 2014’s Birdman
Tim Roth, bad guy in Norton’s The Incredible Hulk, for 1995’s Rob Roy
William Hurt, whose MCU appearances also began in The Incredible Hulk, for 2005’s A History of Violence
Sam Rockwell was nominated a year after his Billboards win in 2018 for Vice
Anthony Hopkins, Thor’s dad, for 1997’s Amistad and last year’s The Two Popes
Stanley Tucci, also of Captain America: First Avenger, in 2010 for The Lovely Bones
Mark Ruffalo is a three-time nominee: 2010’s The Kids Are All Right, 2014’s Foxcatcher, and in 2015 for Spotlight
Jeremy Renner, aka Hawkeye, in 2010’s The Town
Ben Kingsley, from Iron Man 3, is a two-time mention for 1991’s Bugsy and 2001’s Sexy Beast
Benicio del Toro also received a nomination for 2003’s 21 Grams
Bradley Cooper, Rocket from Guardians of the Galaxy, for 2013’s American Hustle
Djimon Hounsou, who first appeared in Guardians, for both 2003’s In America and 2006’s Blood Diamond
John C. Reilly, another Guardians performer, for 2002’s Chicago
Josh Brolin, aka Thanos, for 2008’s Milk
Sylvester Stallone, who appeared in the Guardians sequel, for 2015’s Creed
Matt Damon, who had a cameo in Thor: Ragnarok, for Invictus in 2009
Jude Law, from Captain Marvel, received a nomination 20 years earlier for The Talented Mr. Ripley
Jake Gyllenhaal, villain for Spider-Man: Far From Home, for 2005’s Brokeback Mountain
And that does it for now, folks! I’ll have Supporting Actress up in short order…
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