Buckle up Oscar prognosticators because we are in for a heckuva awards season over the next few months!
One week after Joker took the Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival and increased its Oscar chances for Best Picture, Taika Waititi’s JojoRabbit has emerged victorious in the People’s Choice Award in Toronto.
A very solid argument can be made that this particular designation is even more key in determining an eventual BP nod. Why? The odds are certainly in its favor. 10 out of the last 11 winners have received a nod in the big race come Oscar time. Four of them – 2008’s SlumdogMillionaire, 2010’s TheKing’sSpeech, 2013’s 12 Years a Slave and last year’s GreenBook – ended up winning BP.
What makes the Jojo victory surprising is the mixed critical reaction it’s garnered. The buzz for this award was centered on titles like Parasite (which was a runner-up), MarriageStory (another runner-up), and ABeautifulDayintheNeighborhood. Conventional wisdom in the last few days has been that Jojo is an on the bubble BP contender at best. The Toronto audience love shows that its admirers are passionate. And that might be enough to overcome the naysayers.
There is no doubt that this is exactly the kind of prize Jojo needed to keep its Oscar viability alive. And now Jojo and Joker have more in common than their alphabetical proximity. They’re contenders.
Well, a lot has certainly transpired on the Oscar prognostication front in the past week! Most notably would be the Toronto Film Festival and as usual, it helped some pictures and performers and threw shade on the hopes of others.
For blog followers, you’ve seen a whole bunch of Oscar Watch posts over the last few days. Various rankings in the eight major categories have shifted as we arrive at today’s predictions with some newcomers hitting predicted territory.
Let’s go through some highlights:
One of the more unexpected events from up north was the love for Hustlers, out tomorrow. The attention was particularly centered on the performance of Jennifer Lopez. She goes from unranked all the way to #3 in Supporting Actress.
TheTwoPopes is gathering more admirers as it plays the circuit. I now have it #4 in my BP derby (up five spots). This could change, but I think it’s one of a handful of pics that could win top prize.
Joker surprised many by emerging victorious for the Golden Lion at Venice. It now enters the fray as a predicted nominee in BP and Adapted Screenplay, in addition to Joaquin Phoenix.
Like Popes, Waves is also making a festival splash and it enters my projected BP recipients in ninth.
My projections in the lead acting categories remains the same ten, albeit with some jockeying from last week to this one.
In Supporting Actor, lots of movement. Tom Hanks was heralded for his portrayal of Mister Rogers in Toronto for Marielle Heller’s ABeautifulDayintheNeighborhood. I also have Sterling K. Brown in Waves pulling a J-Lo and going from not ranked to nominee. And Jamie Foxx in JustMercy is drawing acclaim so he joins the shortlist. They replace Willem Dafoe, Al Pacino, and Taika Waititi in a crowded field.
Speaking of Waititi, JojoRabbit was met with wildly divergent opinions in Toronto. I now have it only receiving an Adapted Screenplay nod, but expect its journey to Oscar attention or no attention to be an ongoing story.
Harriet seemed to be a bit of a Toronto disappointment. While I’m still listing Cynthia Erivo’s work as the title character in Actress, the movie itself has dropped completely out of my top 25.
There is no doubt that the badly reviewed TheGoldfinch has seen its Academy dreams totally vanish.
Keep reading on to see how I have everything shaking out at the moment and I’ll have updates forecasts next Thursday!
The Venice Film Festival has drawn to a close and the awards bestowed today are sure to generate some controversy. The Golden Lion prize (equivalent to Best Picture) has gone to Joker, with its acclaimed performance from Joaquin Phoenix as the iconic villain. It won out over numerous foreign titles and Noah Baumbach’s MarriageStory, which drew raves and is anticipated to be a major Oscar contender.
A year ago, the Lion went to Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma, which nabbed multiple Academy nominations including Picture. In 2017, the recipient was the eventual Oscar Pic winner – Guillermo del Toro’s TheShapeofWater.
I didn’t have Joker predicted as a nominee for the past couple weeks. Does the Venice action change the dynamic? Well it’s certainly a boost. I’m still skeptical it will make the final cut, but this publicity and its expected massive box office will be feathers in its cap.
Perhaps an even bigger shocker was the winner for the Grand Jury prize – essentially the runner up spot. It went to Roman Polanski’s AnOfficerandaSpy. Controversy surrounding the filmmaker is not the only reason for prognosticators being surprised. The pic currently sports a middling 56% on Rotten Tomatoes. Unlike last year’s Jury winner TheFavourite, don’t expect this to be in the Oscar derby.
Acting races also showcased performers not on the Academy radar. Luca Marinelli took Best Actor for MartinEden and Ariane Ascaride was named top Actress for Sweden’s AboutEndlessness. That film also saw its director Roy Andersson victorious in his race. A nod for Best International Feature is feasible for it.
All in all, Venice gave Joker a hoped for ace up its sleeve in precursor activity. Let’s see if momentum continues to grow…
A lot can change in a week and that’s certainly the case in my second edition of weekly Oscar predictions for 2019. That’s because the Venice and Telluride festivals have happened and numerous contenders have emerged. Some have seen their fortunes dwindle (like Steven Soderbergh’s TheLaundromat or Edward Norton’s MotherlessBrooklyn). Other films and performances have received a serious boost like FordvFerrari, Waves (not even on my radar last week), TheTwoPopes, and Renee Zellweger in Judy.
While last Thursday provided my pre festival rankings, there’s plenty of movement that’s occurred since then. And by next Thursday… the picture will begin more clear with the Toronto Film Festival beginning today and where several other high profile hopefuls will screen.
Comic book movies arrive in quick order these days, but not many draw comparisons to Martin Scorsese’s Taxi Driver. Such is the case with Joker, the breathlessly anticipated stand-alone DC Universe title featuring Joaquin Phoenix in the title role. It has premiered at Venice Film Festival ahead of its October 4 stateside release. Early critical reaction portrays this as a grim, sometimes terrifying, and often brilliant experience. And Phoenix’s work is being called masterful.
You’ll recall that it was just over a decade ago that Heath Ledger posthumously won an Oscar in TheDarkKnight as the same iconic villain. Based on word from Venice, there seems to be a strong possibility that Phoenix will receive his fourth nod for his acting (Supporting for Gladiator, lead in WalktheLine and TheMaster). Even with a high profile costar like Robert De Niro, I suspect all the acting chatter will be directed to the head clown.
Joker could prove to be a massive box office success and that might increase its chances for a Picture nod, direction for Todd Phillips, and the Adapted Screenplay. Bottom line: don’t be surprised if Phoenix becomes the second actor to get Oscar love for this character. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Welcome to my first edition of my weekly Oscar predictions where I’ll be ranking my top 25 Best Picture possibilities and 15 contenders in the directing, acting, and screenplay categories!
The dawn of my rankings coincides with the start of film festival season as Venice is in full swing with Telluride and Toronto on deck. Noah Baumbach’s MarriageStory has already screened in Italy and solidified its status as a serious contender in numerous races. There’s a whole bunch of movies premiering in the coming days so expect the picture to become a wee bit clearer. That said, I’ve learned a lot of things from years of past predicting when it comes to this time of the year:
Movies thought to be contenders will fail to live up to their buzz
Movies will be pushed back to 2020 and render them ineligible
Leading actor and actress candidates will be moved to supporting and vice versa
Screenplays considered Adapted will become Original and vice versa
Sleepers not currently on the radar will rise up… think last year’s Best Picture winner GreenBook
With all those caveats, let’s get to it! And expect updates every Thursday on the blog…
We’ve arrived at the biggest contest of all in my inaugural Oscar predictions for 2019 – Best Picture! If you missed my first takes on director and the acting categories, you can read them right here:
As a reminder, Picture is the only race where the number of nominees can fluctuate anywhere from 5 to 10. In recent years, the magic number is normally 9. However, there were 8 movies up in 2018. My initial late August projections last year yielded three of the eventual 8: BlacKkKlansman, AStarIsBorn, and Roma. Three other flicks nominated were mentioned in my other possibilities: BlackPanther, TheFavourite, and Vice. Interestingly, eventual winner GreenBook wasn’t quite on my radar screen at that time.
I’ll go with nine for the time being. The multitude of film festivals starting Thursday and over the coming weeks will shape all races tremendously. My first ranked predictions in the top 6 categories will start this Thursday and be updated weekly.
Let’s get to it!
EARLYOSCARPREDICTIONS: BESTPICTURE
1917
Bombshell
TheFarewell
TheIrishman
LittleWomen
MarriageStory
OnceUponaTimeinHollywood
Parasite
TheReport
OtherPossibilities:
ABeautifulDayintheNeighborhood
AdAstra
AHiddenLife
Avengers: Endgame
DarkWaters
FordvFerrari
TheGoldfinch
Harriet
JojoRabbit
Joker
JustMercy
TheLaundromat
TheLighthouse
PainandGlory
Rocketman
TheTwoPopes
And there you have it! Expect a whole bunch of Oscar Watch posts stemming from Toronto, Telluride, Venice, and New York in the near future…
