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2019 Oscar Predictions: November 18th Edition

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Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. Parasite (PR: 3)

4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)

5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)

6. 1917 (PR: 7)

7. Little Women (PR: 6)

8. Joker (PR: 10)

9. The Two Popes (PR: 8)

10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 11)

Other Possibilities:

11. Bombshell (PR: 9)

12. The Farewell (PR: 12)

13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)

14. Rocketman (PR: 14)

15. Waves (PR: 15)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)

3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 2)

4. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 4)

5. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)

7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)

8. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

9. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Lulu Wang, The Farewell

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)

2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)

3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)

5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)

7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)

8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)

9. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 9)

10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)

3. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 3)

4. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 5)

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)

7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 8)

8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 7)

9. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)

10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)

3. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)

4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)

5. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 6)

7. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 5)

8. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 8)

9. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Nicole Kidman, Bombshell

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 4)

4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 3)

5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 6)

7. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)

8. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 8)

9. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: 10)

10. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 9)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)

3. Little Women (PR: 3)

4. The Two Popes (PR: 4)

5. Joker (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 5)

7. Just Mercy (PR: 7)

8. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)

9. Hustlers (PR: 10)

10. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. Parasite (PR: 3)

4. The Farewell (PR: 4)

5. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bombshell (PR: 6)

7. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Booksmart (PR: 7)

9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)

10. Waves (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Honey Boy

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Parasite (PR: 1)

2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)

3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)

4. And Then We Danced (PR: 7)

5. Beanpole (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Invisible Life (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Atlantics (PR: 4)

8. Monos (PR: 6)

9. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)

10. A White, White Day (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Papicha

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)

2. Frozen II (PR: 2)

3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)

4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)

5. Weathering with You (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Abominable (PR: 6)

7. Missing Link (PR: 7)

8. Klaus (PR: 9)

9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 8)

10. Funan (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Spies in Disguise

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. American Factory (PR: 1)

2. One Child Nation (PR: 2)

3. The Cave (PR: 3)

4. Honeyland (PR: 7)

5. Apollo 11 (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maiden (PR: 4)

7. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 6)

8. Sea of Shadows (PR: 10)

9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 9)

10. Knock Down the House (PR: 8)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)

3. The Irishman (PR: 2)

4. The Lighthouse (PR: 4)

5. Joker (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ad Astra (PR: 8)

7. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)

8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)

9. Parasite (PR: 9)

10. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marriage Story

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Little Women (PR: 5)

3. Downton Abbey (PR: 2)

4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)

5. Rocketman (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Irishman (PR: 6)

7. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)

9. Cats (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Judy (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Joker

Dumbo

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)

4. 1917 (PR: 6)

5. Parasite (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marriage Story (PR: 5)

7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)

8. Bombshell (PR: 7)

9. Joker (PR: 9)

10. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Avengers: Endgame

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bombshell (PR: 1)

2. The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Judy (PR: 3)

4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)

5. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker (PR: 7)

7. Us (PR: 10)

8. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 8)

10. Cats (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rocketman

The Two Popes 

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Little Women (PR: 3)

3. The Irishman (PR: 2)

4. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)

5. 1917 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parasite (PR: 5)

7. Joker (PR: 9)

8. Cats (PR: 7)

9. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)

10. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Aeronauts

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 1)

2. Little Women (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)

4. Joker (PR: 5)

5. Marriage Story (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)

7. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)

8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)

9. The Aeronauts (PR: 9)

10. Ad Astra (PR: 10)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)

2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)

3. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 4)

4. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)

5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 7)

7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 6)

8. “Show Yourself” from Frozen II (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 9)

10. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

“I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough 

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)

2. 1917 (PR: 1)

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)

4. Ad Astra (PR: 5)

5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rocketman (PR: 6)

7. The Irishman (PR: 8)

8. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)

9. Cats (PR: 9)

10. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Richard Jewell

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 1)

2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)

4. Rocketman (PR: 4)

5. Ad Astra (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)

7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)

8. Cats (PR: 8)

9. Joker (PR: 10)

10. Judy (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Irishman

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)

3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)

4. The Lion King (PR: 3)

5. The Aeronauts (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ad Astra (PR: 6)

7. Gemini Man (PR: 7)

8. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 9)

9. Aladdin (PR: Not Ranked)

10. 1917 (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Dumbo

And that equates to the following features obtaining these numbers come nomination time:

10 Nominations

The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

8 Nominations

1917

7 Nominations

Little Women, Marriage Story

5 Nominations

Joker, Parasite

4 Nominations

Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes

3 Nominations

Bombshell, Rocketman

2 Nominations

Ad Astra, Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Pain and Glory

1 Nomination

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Aeronauts, American Factory, And Then We Danced, Apollo 11, Beanpole, Cats, The Cave, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, One Child Nation, Toy Story 4, Weathering with You

November 15-17 Box Office Predictions

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It’s been a distressingly sluggish November at the box office thus far and it might take Frozen II to heat it back up. That doesn’t come out until weekend. For this frame, we have the racing pic and Oscar hopeful Ford v Ferrari with Matt Damon and Christian Bale, the reboot of the Charlie’s Angels franchise with Kristen Stewart, and the Ian McKellen/Helen Mirren thriller The Good Liar. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/11/05/ford-v-ferrari-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/11/06/charlies-angels-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/11/07/the-good-liar-box-office-prediction/

Some estimates have Ford zooming to the top spot with $30 million plus. I’m skeptical. While it should have no trouble hitting #1, I believe mid 20s is the more likely scenario as it hopes to flex strong leg muscle over the holiday season.

Audiences have shown a distaste with unasked for reboots all year and I expect that to continue with Angels, which has failed to generate significant buzz. My low teens projection would guarantee no more editions of this series into the future.

As for Liar, solid reviews and Oscar chatter would’ve helped and it hasn’t achieved either. My $6 million take leaves it outside of the top five.

When it comes to holdovers, Midway was a surprise #1 due to the massive underperforming of Doctor Sleep (more on that below). A dip in the early to mid 40s should put it in fifth.

I expect Playing with Fire and Last Christmas to have the best holds in their sophomore weekends in the 30s region, while Sleep should plummet in the mid 50s or more. This means Sleep may find its way below the high five. I anticipate that being the case and here’s how I envision the weekend:

1. Ford v Ferrari 

Predicted Gross: $24.4 million

2. Charlie’s Angels 

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million

3. Midway

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

4. Playing with Fire 

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

5. Last Christmas 

Predicted Gross: $7 million

Box Office Results (November 8-10)

It isn’t often that the film you pick to be at #4 tops the charts, but it happened this weekend as Midway led a sleepy frame with $17.8 million. That’s above my $13 million prediction. With a reported budget of $100 million, Lionsgate might not be popping champagne corks. Yet they do have bragging rights.

That World War II pic has Doctor Sleep to thank for its relative success. The Shining sequel was a massive failure with just $14.1 million for second place. That’s considerably under my $24.8 million projection. Warner Bros is fortunate to still be counting that Joker cash because there’s absolutely zero positive way to spin this.

John Cena’s family comedy Playing with Fire surpassed expectations in third with $12.7 million, well above my $7.9 million take. It looks poised for a healthy holiday run.

Speaking of the Yuletide season, rom com Last Christmas opened fourth with $11.4 million. That’s under its anticipated numbers and I had it at $16.9 million. However, with a smallish price tag of $30 million, it too looks for meager declines ahead.

Terminator: Dark Fate plummeted to fifth with $10.8 million compared to my guesstimate of $13.2 million. The highly disappointing two-week tally is $48 million and the $100 million mark domestically appears out of reach.

Joker was sixth with $9.2 million, on pace with my $9.1 million prediction for $313 million overall.

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil was seventh at $8.4 million (I said $7.2 million) as it nears the century figure at $97 million.

Harriet was eighth in its sophomore outing with $7.4 million (I went with $7.7 million) for $23 million total.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

2019 Oscar Predictions: November 11th Edition

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Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 2)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

3. Parasite (PR: 4)

4. Marriage Story (PR: 3)

5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)

6. Little Women (PR: 7)

7. 1917 (PR: 5)

8. The Two Popes (PR: 8)

9. Bombshell (PR: 9)

10. Joker (PR: 11)

Other Possibilities:

11. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)

12. The Farewell (PR: 13)

13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 12)

14. Rocketman (PR: 14)

15. Waves (PR: 15)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)

3. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

4. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)

5. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)

7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

8. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)

9. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 8)

10. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Todd Phillips, Joker

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)

3. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 6)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)

5. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 8)

7. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 5)

8. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)

9. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)

10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)

2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 3)

3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 2)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)

5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)

7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)

8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 7)

9. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 9)

10. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Helen Mirren, The Good Liar

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)

3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)

4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)

5. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 6)

7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

8. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 9)

9. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 10)

10. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 8)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)

4. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 5)

5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 8)

7. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 6)

8. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: Not Rankled)

9. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 7)

10. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

John Lithgow, Bombshell

Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Marriage Story (PR: 2)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

3. Parasite (PR: 3)

4. The Farewell (PR: 4)

5. Pain and Glory (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bombshell (PR: 5)

7. Booksmart (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Waves (PR: 8)

9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

10. Honey Boy (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

1917

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)

3. Little Women (PR: 4)

4. The Two Popes (PR: 3)

5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker (PR: 5)

7. Just Mercy (PR: 7)

8. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)

9. Downton Abbey (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hustlers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Judy

Dark Waters

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Parasite (PR: 1)

2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)

3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)

4. Atlantics (PR: 7)

5. Beanpole (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Monos (PR: 4)

7. And Then We Danced (PR: 6)

8. A White, White Day (PR: 9)

9. Those Who Remained (PR: 8)

10. Papicha (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tel Aviv on Fire

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)

2. Frozen II (PR: 2)

3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)

4. I Lost My Body (PR: 5)

5. Weathering with You (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Abominable (PR: 8)

7. Missing Link (PR: 7)

8. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 6)

9. Klaus (PR: 9)

10. Spies in Disguise (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Funan

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. American Factory (PR: 1)

2. One Child Nation (PR: 2)

3. The Cave (PR: 5)

4. Maiden (PR: 3)

5. Apollo 11 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 6)

7. Honeyland (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Knock Down the House (PR: 7)

9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Sea of Shadows (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

For Sama

Diego Maradona

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 1)

2. The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)

4. The Lighthouse (PR: 5)

5. Joker (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)

7. A Hidden Life (PR: 4)

8. Ad Astra (PR: 8)

9. Parasite (PR: 7)

10. Marriage Story (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Portrait of a Lady on Fire 

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Downton Abbey (PR: 4)

3. Rocketman (PR: 5)

4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 2)

5. Little Women (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Irishman (PR: 7)

7. Judy (PR: 6)

8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)

9. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dumbo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cats

Aladdin

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)

4. Parasite (PR: 5)

5. Marriage Story (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities: 

6. 1917 (PR: 4)

7. Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

9. Joker (PR: 9)

10. Avengers: Endgame (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rocketman

Knives Out 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bombshell (PR: 1)

2. The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Judy (PR: 3)

4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)

5. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rocketman (PR: 6)

7. Joker (PR: 10)

8. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)

9. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Us (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cats

The Aeronauts 

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Little Women (PR: 4)

4. 1917 (PR: 5)

5. Parasite (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 3)

7. Cats (PR: 7)

8. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)

9. Joker (PR: 10)

10. The Aeronauts (PR: 8)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 1)

2. Little Women (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)

4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)

5. Joker (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)

7. A Hidden Life (PR: 6)

8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)

9. The Aeronauts (PR: 7)

10. Ad Astra (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Waves

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)

2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)

3. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 4)

4. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 3)

5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 6)

7. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “I’m Standing With You” from Breakthrough (PR: 5)

9. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

“The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4

“One Little Soldier” from Bombshell

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 2)

2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)

4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)

5. Ad Astra (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rocketman (PR: 5)

7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)

8. The Irishman (PR: 7)

9. Cats (PR: 9)

10. Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Aeronauts

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 3)

2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)

4. Rocketman (PR: 4)

5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ad Astra (PR: 9)

7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)

8. Cats (PR: 10)

9. The Irishman (PR: 7)

10. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Judy

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 2)

2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 1)

3. The Lion King (PR: 4)

4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)

5. The Aeronauts (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ad Astra (PR: 8)

7. Gemini Man (PR: 7)

8. 1917 (PR: 9)

9. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 6)

10. Dumbo (PR: 10)

And that all equates to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:

10 Nominations

The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

8 Nominations

Marriage Story

7 Nominations

1917, Little Women

6 Nominations

Parasite

4 Nominations

Bombshell, Joker, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes

3 Nominations

Avengers: Endgame, Ford v Ferrari, Rocketman

2 Nominations

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, Harriet, Jojo Rabbit, Judy, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Pain and Glory

1 Nomination

Ad Astra, The Aeronauts, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Beanpole, Cats, The Cave, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, Maiden, One Child Nation, The Report, Toy Story 4, Weathering with You

November 8-10 Box Office Predictions

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It’s a busy weekend at the box office as four new titles enter the marketplace: Shining sequel Doctor Sleep, Paul Feig directed rom com Last Christmas, Roland Emmerich made WWII action pic Midway, and John Cena led family comedy Playing with Fire. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them all here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/29/doctor-sleep-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/30/last-christmas-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/31/midway-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/31/playing-with-fire-box-office-prediction/

Barring a rather major over performance from Christmas, the #1 spot this weekend should go to Doctor Sleep. I’m putting right in its expected range of mid 20s. Reviews are solid though not spectacular and the horror pic may have trouble finding the youth audience that the genre typically depends on. The crowd is likely to skew a bit older due to the classic 1980 Kubrick film it’s following.

There is certainly a shot that Christmas celebrates a higher start than my mid teens projection, but the best hope could be for small drops in the weekends ahead.

Those two newbies seemed destined to hold the 1-2 positions as Terminator: Dark Fate had a dim start last weekend. While I don’t see it dropping in the plus 60s range like Godzilla: King of the Monsters and Men in Black International did over the summer, a mid 50s fall is feasible. That could put it in a close race for third with Midway in the low teens.

Harriet came in on the plus side of its expectations and I foresee a dip in the low to mid 30s. That could put it close to where I expect final newcomer Fire to hit and where the Maleficent: Mistress of Evil earnings are.

With all this activity, let’s expand that top five to eight, shall we?

1. Doctor Sleep 

Predicted Gross: $24.8 million

2. Last Christmas 

Predicted Gross: $16.9 million

3. Terminator: Dark Fate 

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Midway 

Predicted Gross: $13 million

5. Joker

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

6. Playing with Fire 

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

7. Harriet 

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

8. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million

Box Office Results (November 1-3)

The reunification of Arnold Schwarzenegger and Linda Hamilton hit #1 as expected, but its premiere was a major disappointment. Dark Fate took in $29 million, well below forecasts (including my $38.1 million take). While that doesn’t quite mark the previous franchise low of 2015’s Genisys at $27 million (which actually hit low 40s in a five-day holiday rollout), it’s clear that the fate of this will be as a big financial loser domestically.

Joker was second with $13.5 million, a touch more than my $12.2 million prediction. Its total is an incredible $299 million.

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil was close behind in third with $13 million, reaching beyond my $10.2 million projection for an $85 million tally.

As mentioned, Harriet hit its mark (and might have saved Cynthia Erivo’s Oscar chances) with $11.6 million. I was lower at $8.2 million. Look for this to have smallish declines as it achieved an A+ Cinemascore grade.

The Addams Family rounded out the top five at $8.2 million (I said $7 million) for a snappy haul of $85 million.

The weekend’s other newbies both struggled at the bottom of the top ten. Motherless Brooklyn was ninth at just $3.5 million, in line with my $3.2 million prediction. The animated Arctic Dogs was a bad, bad performer in tenth with $2.9 million (less than my $4.5 million projection).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

2019 Oscar Predictions: November 1st Edition

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This week’s gathering of my Oscar predictions brings changes in some big categories:

  • Joker has been at the bottom of my ten Best Picture nominees since its opening, but it drops to #11 in favor of Ford v Ferrari. On the positive side for the film, Joker is back in my Adapted Screenplay estimates over A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.
  • Harriet is out this weekend and it’s coming in at the higher range of box office expectations. I’m putting Cynthia Erivo back in my top five and that leaves out Alfre Woodard’s work in Clemency.
  • Dolemite Is My Name premiered on Netflix a week ago and that’s opened up a floodgate of praise for Eddie Murphy. We shall see if the momentum continues, but I now have vaulted him into my Best Actor nominees. That drops out Robert De Niro in The Irishman. Truth be told, this particular race is absolutely packed and I believe only Adam Driver is safe right now.

Let’s get to it!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Marriage Story (PR: 3)

4. Parasite (PR: 4)

5. 1917 (PR: 6)

6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)

7. Little Women (PR: 9)

8. The Two Popes (PR: 8)

9. Bombshell (PR: 7)

10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 11)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker (PR: 10)

12. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)

13. The Farewell (PR: 12)

14. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Waves (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Richard Jewell 

BEST DIRECTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)

4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)

5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)

7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

8. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)

9. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)

10. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Jay Roach, Bombshell 

BEST ACTRESS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)

2. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 2)

3. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 3)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)

5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)

7. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 5)

8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)

9. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Isabelle Huppert, Frankie 

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)

3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)

5. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 5)

7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)

8. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)

9. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)

10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)

4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)

5. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 6)

7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 7)

8. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: Not Ranked)

9. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 8)

10. Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit 

Sterling K. Brown, Waves

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 4)

3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 2)

4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 3)

5. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 6)

7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

8. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 8)

10. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Marriage Story (PR: 2)

3. Parasite (PR: 3)

4. The Farewell (PR: 4)

5. Bombshell (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pain and Glory (PR: 6)

7. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)

8. Waves (PR: 7)

9. 1917 (PR: 8)

10. Honey Boy (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Knives Out 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)

3. The Two Popes (PR: 4)

4. Little Women (PR: 3)

5. Joker (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 5)

7. Just Mercy (PR: 7)

8. Richard Jewell (PR: 10)

9. Judy (PR: 8)

10. Dark Waters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Downton Abbey

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Predicted Nominees:

1. Parasite (PR: 1)

2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)

3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)

4. Monos (PR: 5)

5. Beanpole (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. And Then We Danced (PR: 8)

7. Atlantics (PR: 6)

8. Those Who Remained (PR: 4)

9. A White, White Day (PR: 9)

10. Tel Aviv on Fire (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Traitor 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)

2. Frozen II (PR: 2)

3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)

4. Weathering with You (PR: 4)

5. I Lost My Body (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Missing Link (PR: 6)

8. Abominable (PR: 7)

9. Klaus (PR: 10)

10. Funan (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Okko’s Inn 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. American Factory (PR: 1)

2. One Child Nation (PR: 3)

3. Maiden (PR: 5)

4. Apollo 11 (PR: 2)

5. The Cave (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 6)

7. Knock Down the House (PR: 8)

8. For Sama (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sea of Shadows (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Diego Maradona (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

The Edge of Democracy 

Western Stars

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 2)

2. The Irishman (PR: 1)

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)

4. A Hidden Life (PR: 4)

5. The Lighthouse (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)

7. Parasite (PR: 8)

8. Ad Astra (PR: 6)

9. Joker (PR: 7)

10. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: 10)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)

3. Little Women (PR: 2)

4. Downton Abbey (PR: 4)

5. Rocketman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judy (PR: 7)

7. The Irishman (PR: 6)

8. Cats (Not Ranked)

9. Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Aladdin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

1917

Joker

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 

BEST FILM EDITING 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 3)

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

4. 1917 (PR: 5)

5. Parasite (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marriage Story (PR: 4)

7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

8. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Joker (PR: 10)

10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Avengers: Endgame 

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bombshell (PR: 1)

2. The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Judy (PR: 4)

4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)

5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rocketman (PR: 6)

7. Cats (PR: 10)

8. The Aeronauts (PR: 8)

9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joker (PR: 5)

Dropped Out:

Little Women 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 1)

2. Little Women (PR: 3)

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)

4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)

5. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Hidden Life (PR: 5)

7. The Aeronauts (PR: 6)

8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

9. Waves (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joker (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Ad Astra 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)

2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)

3. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 3)

4. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 4)

5. “I’m Standing With You” from Breakthrough (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 7)

7. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)

8. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 6)

9. “The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 8)

10. “One Little Soldier” from Bombshell (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

”Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)

4. Little Women (PR: 3)

5. 1917 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parasite (PR: 6)

7. Cats (PR: 7)

8. The Aeronauts (PR: 9)

9. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)

10. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 

BEST SOUND EDITING

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)

2. 1917 (PR: 3)

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)

4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)

5. Rocketman (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 7)

7. The Irishman (PR: 6)

8. Ad Astra (PR: 5)

9. Cats (PR: 9)

10. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Us

BEST SOUND MIXING

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)

2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)

3. 1917 (PR: 3)

4. Rocketman (PR: 6)

5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)

7. The Irishman (PR: 8)

8. Judy (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ad Astra (PR: 5)

10. Cats (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Joker

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 1)

2. The Irishman (PR: 3)

3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 2)

4. The Lion King (PR: 4)

5. The Aeronauts (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 5)

7. Gemini Man (PR: 8)

8. Ad Astra (PR: 7)

9. 1917 (PR: 9)

10. Dumbo (PR: 10)

And that equates to the following number of nominations going to these pictures:

11 Nominations 

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

9 Nominations 

The Irishman 

8 Nominations 

1917

7 Nominations 

Little Women, Marriage Story 

5 Nominations 

Bombshell, Ford v Ferrari, Parasite 

4 Nominations 

Rocketman, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes 

3 Nominations 

Dolemite Is My Name, Jojo Rabbit

2 Nominations 

Avengers: Endgame, Frozen II, Harriet, Joker, Judy, The Lighthouse 

1 Nomination

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Aeronauts, A Hidden Life, American Factory, Apollo 11, Beanpole, Breakthrough, Cats, The Cave, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, The Lion King, Maiden, Monos, One Child Nation, Pain and Glory, The Report, Toy Story 4, Weathering with You 

November 1-3 Box Office Predictions

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The November box office kicks off with Arnold Schwarzenegger’s signature character back in theaters and three other newcomers vying for attention. In addition to Terminator: Dark Fate, we have the historical biopic Harriet, animated comedy Arctic Dogs, and Edward Norton’s period piece crime drama Motherless Brooklyn. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quartet here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/22/terminator-dark-fate-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/26/harriet-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/23/arctic-dogs-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/23/motherless-brooklyn-box-office-prediction/

I’ll begin with the low hanging fruit that I don’t expect to place in the top five. Dogs comes from the upstart Entertainment Studios, which has no track record with family fare. My $4.5 million forecast reflects its lack of visibility among kiddos and their parents. Brooklyn was looked at as a potential awards contender before festival screenings and its mixed reaction killed that notion. Premiering in a smallish 1250 theaters, I’m projecting a meager $3.2 million.

There is little doubt that Dark Fate (reuniting the former California Governor with his Terminator 2: Judgment Day costars Linda Hamilton and Edward Furlong) will top the charts, but its range of possibility is the real question mark. My high 30s estimate gives it a so-so start that outdoes 2015 predecessor Genisys.

It was a photo finish last weekend between Maleficent: Mistress of Evil and Joker. However, even though Arnold serves as more direct competition for the latter, I expect Joker will experience a lower decline than Evil and maintain its #2 standing for the third frame in a row.

Like Brooklyn, Harriet also lost its hoped for Oscar luster once reviews came out. My mid single digits projection gives it a slight edge in fourth over The Addams Family.

And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:

1. Terminator: Dark Fate 

Predicted Gross: $38.1 million

2. Joker

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million

3. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

4. Harriet 

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

5. The Addams Family 

Predicted Gross: $7 million

Box Office Results (October 25-27)

It doesn’t get much closer than this as Disney edged out Warner Bros for supremacy with Maleficent: Mistress of Evil clinging to #1 at $19.3 million, just under my $20.4 million prediction. The underperforming sequel stands at $66 million.

The supremely over performing Joker was second with $19.2 million, just over my $18.6 million projection for a tally of $277 million.

The Addams Family held up well and placed third with $12 million (I said $11.2 million). Total is $73 million.

Just behind in fourth and dropping hard in weekend #2 was Zombieland: Double Tap with $11.8 million. I went higher at $13.8 million. The two week earnings are $47 million.

The weekend’s highest newcomer was horror pic Countdown, rounding out the top five with $8.8 million (not hitting my $10.3 million take).

Black and Blue was sixth, premiering with $8.3 million. I didn’t give it enough credit with my $4.8 million estimate.

Finally, the long delayed The Current War was ninth with a dim $2.6 million. It did manage to build upon my $1.7 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time… I’ll be back!

2019 Oscar Predictions: October 25th Edition

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My latest round of Oscar predictions brings the following developments:

  • Little Women has held industry screenings and greatly improved its chances at multiple nominations. It’s back in my predicted ten Best Picture contenders and that’s bad news for Ford v Ferrari.
  • Speaking of Ferrari, it was announced that Christian Bale will contend for Best Actor and not supporting, which is where I’ve had him predicted for weeks. This designation significantly decreases his shot and I have him ranked in 8th. The benefactor in Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe for The Lighthouse.
  • Back to Little Women. The standout is said to be Florence Pugh, so I now have her down for Supporting Actress, knocking out Shuzhen Zhou in The Farewell.
  • Speaking of The Farewell, my fifth spot in Actress continues to change as that picture’s Awkwafina slides to sixth with Alfre Woodard (Clemency) in.
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood nabs the #1 slot in Picture over The Irishman. It’s a razor thin margin.

Let’s get to it!

BEST PICTURE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Previous Ranking: 2)

2. The Irishman (PR: 1)

3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)

4. Parasite (PR: 3)

5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)

6. 1917 (PR: 5)

7. Bombshell (PR: 9)

8. The Two Popes (PR: 8)

9. Little Women (PR: 12)

10. Joker (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

11. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

12. The Farewell (PR: 11)

13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)

14. Waves (PR: 14)

15. Richard Jewell (PR: 15)

BEST DIRECTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)

3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 2)

4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)

5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)

8. Jay Roach, Bombshell (PR: 10)

9. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: Not Ranked)

10. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lulu Wang, The Farewell

Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory 

BEST ACTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)

3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)

5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)

7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)

8. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting)

9. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)

10. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems 

BEST ACTRESS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)

2. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 2)

3. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 3)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)

5. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 7)

8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)

9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)

10. Isabelle Huppert, Frankie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)

3. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 8)

4. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)

5. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 5)

7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 6)

9. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)

10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Meryl Streep, Little Women 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 4)

4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 3)

5. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)

7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 8)

8. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 9)

9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)

10. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (moved to lead)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)

3. Little Women (PR: 6)

4. The Two Popes (PR: 3)

5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker (PR: 5)

7. Just Mercy (PR: 7)

8. Judy (PR: 8)

9. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)

10. Richard Jewell (PR: 10)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

2. Marriage Story (PR: 1)

3. Parasite (PR: 3)

4. The Farewell (PR: 4)

5. Bombshell (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pain and Glory (PR: 8)

7. Waves (PR: 6)

8. 1917 (PR: 7)

9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)

10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Booksmart 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Predicted Nominees:

1. Parasite (PR: 1)

2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)

3. Les Miserables (PR: 4)

4. Those Who Remained (PR: 6)

5. Monos (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Atlantics (PR: 3)

7. Beanpole (PR: 7)

8. And Then We Danced (PR: 8)

9. A White, White Day (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Traitor (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Papicha

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)

2. Frozen II (PR: 2)

3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)

4. Weathering with You (PR: 5)

5. I Lost My Body (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Missing Link (PR: 4)

7. Abominable (PR: 7)

8. Funan (PR: 9)

9. Okko’s Inn (PR: 10)

10. Klaus (PR: 8)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. American Factory (PR: 2)

2. Apollo 11 (PR: 1)

3. One Child Nation (PR: 4)

4. The Cave (PR: 5)

5. Maiden (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 6)

7. Diego Maradona (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Knock Down the House (PR: 10)

9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 7)

10. Western Stars (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Aquarela

Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story By Martin Scorsese 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 2)

2. 1917 (PR: 1)

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)

4. A Hidden Life (PR: Not Ranked)

5. The Lighthouse (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ad Astra (PR: 6)

7. Joker (PR: 9)

8. Parasite (PR: 4)

9. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Marriage Story 

Jojo Rabbit 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

2. Little Women (PR: 3)

3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)

4. Downton Abbey (PR: 1)

5. Rocketman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Irishman (PR: 7)

7. Judy (PR: 6)

8. 1917 (PR: 9)

9. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Aladdin 

Jojo Rabbit 

BEST FILM EDITING 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)

4. Marriage Story (PR: 5)

5. 1917 (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parasite (PR: 6)

7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

8. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)

9. Avengers: Endgame (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joker (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Ad Astra 

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bombshell (PR: 2)

2. The Irishman (PR: 1)

3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)

4. Judy (PR: 3)

5. Joker (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rocketman (PR: 9)

7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)

8. The Aeronauts (PR: 8)

9. Little Women (PR: 5)

10. Cats (PR: 10)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 1

2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)

3. Little Women (PR: 3)

4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)

5. A Hidden Life (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Aeronauts (PR: 6)

7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)

8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

9. Joker (PR: 9)

10. Ad Astra 

Dropped Out:

Waves

BEST ORIGINAL SONG 

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)

2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)

3. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: Not Ranked)

4. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)

5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 6)

7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 5)

8. “The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 4)

9. “One Little Soldier” from Bombshell (PR: 8)

10. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

”Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. The Irishman (PR: 4)

3. Little Women (PR: 5)

4. 1917 (PR: 2)

5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parasite (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Cats (PR: 6)

8. Downton Abbey (PR: 10)

9. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Ford v Ferrari 

Aladdin 

BEST SOUND EDITING 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)

2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)

3. 1917 (PR: 1)

4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 8)

5. Ad Astra (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Irishman (PR: 7)

7. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)

8. Rocketman (PR: 4)

9. Cats (PR: 9)

10. Us (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Lion King 

BEST SOUND MIXING 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)

2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)

3. 1917 (PR: 2)

4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)

5. Ad Astra (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rocketman (PR: 4)

7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)

8. The Irishman (PR: 8)

9. Cats (PR: 7)

10. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Lion King 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)

2. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)

3. The Irishman (PR: 1)

4. The Lion King (PR: 4)

5. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Aeronauts (PR: 6)

7. Ad Astra (PR: 8)

8. Gemini Man (PR: 7)

9. 1917 (PR: 9)

10. Dumbo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Godzilla: King of the Monsters 

And that equates to the following films getting the following number of nominations:

10 Nominations

The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

8 Nominations

1917, Marriage Story 

7 Nominations

Little Women 

5 Nominations

Bombshell 

4 Nominations

Parasite, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes 

3 Nominations

Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Joker

2 Nominations

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, A Hidden Life, Judy, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Rocketman 

1 Nomination

Alita: Battle Angel, American Factory, Apollo 11, Cats, The Cave, Clemency, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, Harriet, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, Maiden, Monos, One Child Nation, Pain and Glory, The Report, Those Who Remained, Toy Story 4, Weathering with You