Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland is one of the most anticipated titles playing Cannes and its French screening today indicates it lives up the hype. Set post-WWII, the black & white historical drama casts Sandra Hüller as novelist Erika Mann on a road trip with renowned father Thomas (Hanns Zischler). Costars include August Diehl, David Striesow, and Anna Madeley.
This is the Polish filmmaker’s first feature since 2018’s Cold War which picked up Academy nods for Best Director, International Feature Film, and Łukasz Żal’s cinematography. Prior to that, 2014’s Ida was the International Feature Film winner and also made cut in cinematography for Żal.
Reviews for the Mubi distributed title (which runs a brisk 82 minutes) stand at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with 92 on Metacritic. Those numbers solidify its awards viability. Assuming Poland submits it as their horse in IFF (and it’s safe to assume that), this should mark the auteur’s third shot in that race in a row. Żal’s camerawork is also being singled out and he could make the quintet there.
While Ida and Cold War didn’t get into the BP ten, Fatherland certainly is a possibility and Pawlikowski is once again a contender for his direction and his original screenplay with Hendrik Handloegten. As far as the leads, Hüller is generating raves. Her potential inclusion in Best Actress is high though not a given. Due to a fresh Academy rules change, she might even compete against herself when factoring her heralded turn in Rose (where she took top prize at the Berlin fest). The vote splitting between both roles will be something to keep in mind. Zischler is more of a question mark. His costar could overshadow the campaign. On paper, Best Actor looks awfully crowded. Could Mubi go supporting instead? However, momentum for the pic could sweep him in under a best case scenario. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.
The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.
In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.
Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.
The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.
We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.
You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)
5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)
13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)
15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)
16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)
17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)
18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)
19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)
Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.
I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.
In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.
As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.
My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.
We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.
And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.
So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.
When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.
You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Digger
5. Fjord
6. No One Cares
7. All of a Sudden
8. Fatherland
9. The Social Reckoning
10. Dune: Part Three
Other Possibilities:
11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew
12. A Place in Hell
13. A Long Winter
14. The Entertainment System is Down
15. Being Heumann
16. Cry to Heaven
17. Josephine
18. Werwulf
19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth
20. Michael
21. Paper Tiger
22. Saturn Return
23. Sense and Sensibility
24. Jack of Spades
25. Behemoth!
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger
3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary
4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
5.Cristian Mingiu, Fjord
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden
7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland
8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares
9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three
10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew
11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down
12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven
13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning
14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf
15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord
2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning
3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares
4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland
5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell
Other Possibilities:
6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden
7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann
8. Mason Reeves, Josephine
9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa
10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie
11. Sandra Hüller, Rose
12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police
13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return
14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility
15. Amy Adams, At the Sea
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord
5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland
Other Possibilities:
6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey
7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear
8. Dominic Sessa, Tony
9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven
10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael
11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three
12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!
13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return
15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine
2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine
3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares
4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden
Other Possibilities:
6. Sandra Hüller, Digger
7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell
8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary
9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter
10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning
12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down
13. Gemma Chan, Josephine
14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades
15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares
2. John Goodman, Digger
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
4. Colman Domingo, Michael
5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell
8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey
9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann
10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter
11. Jesse Plemons, Digger
12. Channing Tatum, Josephine
13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa
14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.
We are not quite a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. I already posted my take in the acting fields and they can be found here:
That brings us to Best Director. When I did my first forecast in this race for the 98th ceremony, my projections yielded two of the eventual nominees: Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet). Eventual winner Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) were named in Other Possibilities. I had yet to mention Ryan Coogler (Sinners).
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system where the lineup for Cannes was revealed today.
This premiere post has Christopher Nolan back in the lineup three years after Oppenheimer dominated the 96th Academy Awards. His competitors include newcomers and former nominees like Martin McDonagh and Ryusuke Hamaguchi.
Here’s the first snapshot with Best Picture up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR DIRECTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden
Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary
The Cannes Film Festival of 2024 is complete and, as always, it made the Oscar picture a little clearer with potential nominees as well as films that won’t be on the radar screen based on their French buzz.
One picture that did itself the most favors is Sean Baker’s Anora. The latest dramedy from The Florida Project drew raves and was named the Palme d’Or recipient (the highest Cannes prize). Three of the past four Palme winners (Parasite, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall) ended up with a BP nod from the Academy.
The film’s leading lady Mikey Madison did not take Best Actress. That instead went to a quartet of performers (Karla Sofia Gascón, Selena Gomez, Adriana Paz, Zoe Saldaña) from Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez, which also entered the BP conversation. It is uncertain at this point whether Gascón or Saldaña, in particular, will be slotted in lead Actress or supporting come Oscar time. I currently have Gascón in the latter and Saldaña in the former and both have solid shots at inclusion.
In addition to Madison’s legit chances for an Actress recognition from the Academy, Demi Moore announced herself as a hopeful for her first nom in the heralded body horror tale The Substance from Coralie Fargeat. She is your Cannes honoree for Best Screenplay.
Anora‘s Sean Baker did not take Best Director (Cannes spreads the love). Miguel Gomes took that prize for the period drama Grand Tour. I wouldn’t pencil him in for a Director nom from the Academy. You have to go back to Pawel Pawlikowski and Cold War in 2018 for the previous Cannes winner who nabbed an Oscar mention. That is the only example in the 21st century.
Jesse Plemons is the Best Actor from Kinds of Kindness. Yorgos Lanthimos’s latest got its share of appreciative notices and I do believe it could contend for two or three Oscars. Plemons might be one of the benefactors.
As far as other acting possibilities, The Apprentice didn’t pick up any hardware. I do think Sebastian Stan (as Donald Trump in the 70s and 80s) and Jeremy Strong (as his mentor Roy Cohn) entered the Actor and Supporting Actor discussion. I also wouldn’t discount Nykiya Adams and Barry Keoghan in Actress and Supporting Actor for Andrea Arnold’s Bird.
Of course not all Cannes debuts lead to high praise. Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis, Kevin Costner’s Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 1, and Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada all lessened their viability moving forward.
Keep an eye on the blog for new post Cannes projections in the six major races!
To stateside audiences, Ben Whishaw might be best known as Q in the last three Daniel Craig 007 pics or as the voice of Paddington in those two acclaimed family flicks. He is hoping to generate awards chatter in Limonov: The Ballad which has premiered at Cannes.
Whishaw plays the title role of a Russian dissident who founded the National Bolshevik Party in the early 1990s. Kirill Serebrennikov directs with a screenplay cowritten by Pawel Pawlikowski (the Oscar nominated maker of 2018’s Cold War). Costars include Tomas Arana and Sandrine Bonnaire.
Reviews thus far are mixed enough that I question its viability in awards conversations. Despite Whishaw getting some high marks, the real-life character he’s playing might be too controversial for him to factor into discussions as well. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The SAG Awards aren’t the only nominations out this Wednesday. We have the Director of Guild of America (DGA) nods coming our way. They are usually an 80% indicator of who the Academy will name for its behind the camera prize.
In the past decade, the DGA quintet has matched the Academy’s on a 4 for 5 level in nine out of the last ten ceremonies. The only outlier is 2018 when it was 3 for 5. Note there is no 5 for 5 correlation.
So where does that leave this year’s DGA mix? For the last several weeks, I have had the following five filmmakers pegged for Oscar inclusion: Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). It’s fair to say this is the consensus group among awards prognosticators.
Let’s assume there’s a 4 for 5 match. I believe Nolan, Scorsese, and Gerwig are safe bets. If anyone from that trio missed DGA, it would be considered a surprising omission.
Then I’d say Lanthimos is a near lock. My slight hesitation comes from him being left out in 2018 for The Favourite. Yet I’ll say he’s in.
That means I’m leaving Glazer on the cutting room floor and that makes some sense. The DGA has a history of omitting makers of foreign titles that the Academy recognizes. Recent examples include Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), and Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car).
Don’t get me wrong. Glazer could get in as Zone is being hailed specifically for its directorial choices. I cannot, however, bring myself to match the DGA picks with my current Academy selections.
For the fifth slot, I’m going with Bradley Cooper for Maestro. That’s another title I believe will be appreciated for its directorial work perhaps more than other contenders like Alexander Payne (The Holdovers).
Celine Song (Past Lives) is certainly a threat. However, she’s the frontrunner for the DGA’s Outstanding Achievement in First-Time Feature Film race. She could be a double nominee, but I doubt it.
Here are my picks for all three feature DGA contests with an alternate selection as well.
Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
First-Time Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Raine Allen Miller, Rye Lane
A.V. Rockwell, A Thousand and One
Celine Song, Past Lives
Juel Taylor, They Cloned Tyrone
Alternate: Danny and Michael Philippou, Talk to Me
92 years ago, Lewis Milestone’s war epic All Quiet on the Western Front became just the third movie to win Best Picture at the Oscars. After premiering at the Toronto Film Festival before its October 28th Netflix stream, the latest version could attract Academy attention as well. The German production comes from director Edward Berger with a cast including Daniel Bruhl, Albrecht Schuch, Sebastian Hulk, and Aaron Hilmer.
Its native country has already named it as their submission for International Feature Film. Critical reaction is positive across the board with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. In particular, the World War I tale is being praised for tech aspects.
Along with South Korea’s Decision to Leave, I believe Quiet is pretty close to a sure thing for the IFF category. Yet it could branch out beyond that. We’ve seen a trend lately of Best Director nominees representing their foreign features. Recent examples include Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), and Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car). In the first two cases, their film didn’t even make the Best Picture cut. This could happen with Berger or Decision‘s Park Chan-wook.
The possibilities don’t end there. Adapted Screenplay looks quite open for slot availability. The aforementioned down the line chances to make the final five include Cinematography, Editing, and Sound. It’s just as possible that Quiet only makes noise in IFF, but it could contend in multiple competitions including BP. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Two significant Academy precursors are coming our way tomorrow when the Directors and Producers Guilds of America reveal nominees. Both groups could shed major light on who and what we will see on Oscar nomination morning in less than two weeks.
The DGA nominates five directors for their top prize and it is a reliable preview for usually 4 of the 5 eventual hopefuls at the big show. In the past five years, the DGA’s list corresponds with the Academy’s on the 4 of 5 ratio. The exception was 2018 when it was 3/5. You have to go back to 2009 to find the last year in which there was a perfect match.
For weeks, my Oscar projections in Best Director has remained consistent: Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Steven Spielberg (West Side Story), and Denis Villeneuve (Dune). That’s probably the safest lineup to predict for DGA as well, but I’m hesitant to do so since it’s been over a decade with the two corresponding.
So who’s vulnerable and who could rise up? It’s hard to see Campion (the Oscar frontrunner), Villeneuve, or Spielberg missing. Same generally goes for Branagh though there’s whispers that Belfast could be slipping a bit (still not enough for me to take him out). That leaves Anderson and there’s some precedent. In 2017, the Academy nominated him for Phantom Thread while DGA omitted him. He’s the easiest to leave off their ballot.
Who takes his place? I doubt that it’s Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car. In recent times, the Academy has been more generous with nods for filmmakers and their international features. Last year, they nominated Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) and in 2018 they did the same for Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War) while DGA ignored them.
If there’s a surprise fifth nominee in store, watch out for Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley), Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter) or Sian Heder (CODA). However, I think it could come down to Joel Coen (The Tragedy of Macbeth) and Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up). The latter is a two-time DGA nominee (The Big Short and Vice) and Don’t Look Up is a buzzy streaming success story that’s been widely viewed. Coen, on the other hand, could be honored for the technical mastery of Macbeth.
This is a close call, but I’m ever so slightly leaning toward McKay and I’ll go that route. Therefore – my official DGA predictions are:
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Runner-Up: Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Second Alternate: Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Let’s move to the PGA, shall we? Over the last five years, these are the matches between the Producers and the Academy when it comes to their Best Picture awards:
2016: 9/9
2017: 7/9
2018: 8/8
2019: 9/9
2020: 7/8
It’s important to keep in mind that the Academy, for the past several years, can have anywhere between 5-10 BP contenders (the magic number has been 8 or 9). Yet in 2021, the Oscars are reverting back to a set 10 (the PGA always nominates 10 except for 2017 when they had 11 for some inexplicable reason).
That means there’s only been three films (Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread in 2017 and The Father in 2020) that received Oscar nods and didn’t materialize on the PGA list.
My current 10 selections for BP from the Academy are as follows: Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, Dune, House of Gucci, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story.
I’m estimating that only Gucci and Tragedy could be truly vulnerable to miss the PGA cut (anything else being left off would constitute a pretty big surprise). If that happens, CODA or Richard might be the ones.
In my view, Tragedy is exactly the kind of feature that PGA may not recognize. Gucci is more of a question mark as the Producers generally like to nominate pictures that performed well at the box office. To that point, the PGA has a history of honoring moneymakers that the Academy does not. Recent examples include Bridesmaids, Skyfall, Gone Girl, Straight Outta Compton, Deadpool, Wonder Woman, Crazy Rich Asians, A Quiet Place, and Knives Out.
That could absolutely open the door for No Time to Die or Spider-Man: No Way Home… or both. I’m slightly more hesitant to include Spidey being that neither Avengers: Infinity War or Endgame got PGA love. However, I’m not oblivious to the fact that this guild may want to mention the picture that broke pandemic era box office records.
Outside of the blockbuster mold, you could also see titles like Being the Ricardos, Drive My Car, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley, or Tick, Tick… Boom! factor in.
I’m keeping Gucci in (with extreme uncertainty) and projecting 007 in the mega-earner slot so here’s my PGA ten:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
House of Gucci
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Spider-Man: No Way Home
Second Alternate: The Tragedy of Macbeth
So there you have it! I’ll have reaction up on both DGA and PGA tomorrow on the blog…
We’ve had months of predictions and endless speculation on this blog about the 2018 Oscars and now it’s come to this. On Sunday, the 91st edition of the Academy Awards will air with your host…
As you’ve likely read, there actually is no emcee for this year’s ceremony. I’m not here to write about that. I’m here to make my final picks for the winners! Let’s break down each race one by one, shall we? And, of course, I’ll have a piece up Sunday night with my thoughts on how it all went down.
Analysis: First things first. It’s extremely rare that the winner here doesn’t have its director nominated. Therefore, two films that might have served as the biggest competition to Roma could now be seen as longer shots: AStarIsBorn and GreenBook. You could correctly point out that Argo achieved a victory just six years ago without Ben Affleck getting an individual nod. However, it had been 23 years prior to that (DrivingMissDaisy) when it had occurred previously. BlacKkKlansman and TheFavourite are upset possibilities, but the smart money is on Alfonso Cuaron’s Netflix Mexican drama and it would mark the streaming service’s first win in the big race.
Predicted Winner: Roma
BestDirector
Nominees: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Yorgos Lanthimos (TheFavourite), Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Adam McKay (Vice), Pawel Pawlikowski (ColdWar)
Analysis: I feel even more confident that Cuaron will take the gold here, even if Roma somehow comes up short in Picture. He’s run the table on precursors, including the DGA prize. It would be his second win in five years, after winning for 2013’s Gravity.
Predicted Winner: Cuaron
BestActor
Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (AStarIsBorn), Willem Dafoe (AtEternity’sGate), Rami Malek (BohemianRhapsody), Viggo Mortensen (GreenBook)
Analysis: This is a tough one as Malek and Bale have split a number of precursors. With the SAG Awards, I deemed it a coin flip and picked Malek. I was right. At the Golden Globes, they both won due to category splits. I won’t be surprised to see either win, but my 50/50 feeling going with Malek worked before
Predicted Winner: Malek
BestActress
Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Glenn Close (TheWife), Olivia Colman (TheFavourite), Lady Gaga (AStarIsBorn), Melissa McCarthy (CanYouEverForgiveMe?)
Analysis: Aparicio and McCarthy should be honored to be nominated. Colman and Gaga are threats, but Close has fared best in previous ceremonies and there’s the fact that she’s a highly respected performer who’s yet to win despite multiple nods.
Predicted Winner: Close
BestSupportingActor
Nominees: Mahershala Ali (GreenBook), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliot (AStarIsBorn), Richard E. Grant (CanYouEverForgiveMe?), Sam Rockwell (Vice)
Analysis: This category features the last two Oscar winners as Ali won in 2016 for Moonlight and Rockwell took it last year for ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri. They have far different chances to become two-time victors. Ali is the front-runner. Supporting Actor has seen upsets, but Ali looks strong.
Predicted Winner: Ali
BestSupportingActress
Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Marina de Tavira (Roma), Regina King (IfBealeStreetCouldTalk), Emma Stone (TheFavourite), Rachel Weisz (TheFavourite)
Analysis: Even though King didn’t get a SAG nod, they bestowed their award to Emily Blunt for AQuietPlace and she’s not even nominated. An Adams name call is feasible since she’s never won, but King will probably be crowned Sunday evening.
Analysis: This one is legitimately difficult and I think you can make a case for all of them. Roma is a distinct possibility as the Picture favorite and GreenBook could make a showing. Yet my slight favorite here is TheFavourite.
Analysis: This could be interesting. As revealed above, Roma is my Picture pick. So it’s automatic that it wins here right? Not so fast. ColdWar could get the consolation prize and I feel that’s even more possible since it nabbed a surprise nod for director Pawel Pawlikowski. I’m tempted to pick it, but I’ll say Roma manages the double win. However, if you wish to get creative in your office pool, this could be the race to do it.
Analysis: Pixar has dominated this field for years. In most years, it would be risky to bet against them – therefore Incredibles2. This might be the year to do it as Spider–Man arrived late in the year, swung the momentum, and swept the precursors.
Analysis: One of the biggest shockers when nominations came out was the omission of Mr. Rogers doc Won’tYouBeMyNeighbor?. I likely would’ve picked it to win had it been nominated. Now I believe this is between Solo and RBG. Reverence for the latter could swing it that way, but I’ll give a small edge to Solo.
Analysis: BohemianRhapsody won the significant precursor for its branch and TheFavourite or BlacKkKlansman could factor in as well. My gut says Vice may get this one, however.
Analysis: Even though Star didn’t get in the other Sound race, Mixing seems like where it could be picked. I wouldn’t count out FirstMan, but I’ll guess Star wins here.
Analysis: It was a bit surprising that BlackPanther missed the cut here. Its MCU counterpart Infinity is possible, but I’ll say this is the sole victory for FirstMan.
Analysis: Another chance for Panther lies here, but I’m going with a coin flip between BlacKkKlansman and BealeStreet.
Predicted Winner: IfBealeStreetCouldTalk
BestOriginalSong
Nominees: “All the Stars” from BlackPanther, “I’ll Fight” from RBG, “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from MaryPoppinsReturns, “Shallow” from AStarIsBorn, “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from TheBalladofBusterScruggs
Analysis: My last race is the easiest. “Shallow” is the massive favorite here.
Predicted Winner: “Shallow” fromAStarIsBorn
And there you have it. Enjoy the show Sunday night!
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