Ranking The MCU

**(09/18/19): Updated with all MCU movies ranked through Spider-Man: Far From Home

As of today with AntMan and the Wasp, I’ve now seen all 20 Marvel Cinematic Universe titles that began just over a decade ago with Iron Man. That seemed like a nice round number to do my initial rankings of them. I will plan to update the list as time goes on, beginning next spring with Captain Marvel.

I’ve seen some of them more than others and my opinion for certain ones have risen and fallen over time. For instance, Captain America: Civil War has grown in my appreciation of it. On a lesser scale, my disappointment for Avengers: Age of Ultron has dissipated a bit. And while I’m still in the minority for believing The Dark World is a little better than the original Thor, it’s not too good and has lost some luster in my view.

So we arrive at my listing of the 23 MCU titles thus far! Let the debating begin…

23. AntMan (2015)

22.  Iron Man 2 (2010)

21. Thor (2011)

20. Thor: The Dark World (2013)

19. The Incredible Hulk (2008)

18. Captain America: The First Avenger (2011

17. AntMan and the Wasp (2018)

16. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)

15. Captain Marvel (2019)

 

14. SpiderMan: Far From Home (2019)

13. SpiderMan: Homecoming (2017)

12. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017)

11. Doctor Strange (2016)

10. Thor: Ragnarok (2017)

9. Iron Man 3 (2013)

8. Avengers: Endgame (2019)

7. Black Panther (2018)

6. Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014)

5. Captain America: Civil War (2016)

4. Iron Man (2008)

3. Avengers: Infinity War (2018)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014)

1. The Avengers (2012

The Non-Sequel Actors

Next weekend sees the release of two high-profile sequels: The Equalizer 2 and Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again. The pair of part II’s have something rather interesting in common: they serve as the first sequels that their stars Denzel Washington and Meryl Streep have ever appeared in. Pretty surprising huh? Both have been mega-stars for decades and have never followed up on a character until now.

This got me thinking: what other major actors have never been in a sequel? And it’s not an easy list to cobble together.

Some actors are known for their cases of sequelitis. We know Samuel L. Jackson has appeared in a multitude of them, including Marvel Cinematic Universe pics and franchises ranging from Star Wars to xXx to Incredibles. He was John McClane’s sidekick in Die Hard with a Vengeance. And looking early in his filmography, 1990 saw him appearing in The Exorcist III and The Return of Superfly. There’s also Patriot Games from 1992 and Kill Bill: Vol. 2 from 2004. Son of Shaft will be out next year. Dude loves his m****f***ing sequels!

Sylvester Stallone has made a career of out of them. Creed II will mark his 15th sequel by my count. There’s the Rocky, Rambo, and Expendables series and there’s also Staying Alive (which he directed and had a cameo in), Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, and the just released Escape Plan 2: Hades.

Eddie Murphy has returned in the following series: 48 Hrs., Beverly Hills Cop, The Nutty Professor, Dr. Dolittle, and Shrek. There could be a part II of Coming to America on the horizon.

Harrison Ford has the famous series like Star Wars, Indiana Jones, and the Jack Ryan pictures. There’s also More American Graffiti, Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues, and last year’s Blade Runner 2049.

OK, back to thespians who don’t constantly appear in sequels. Leonardo DiCaprio? Well, who can forget one of his first roles as Josh in 1991’s Critters 3? 

Matthew McConaughey has a similar situation. Since he’s become known, no sequels (not even returning in Magic Mike XXL). Yet one of his first roles was in Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Next Generation. 

Unlike his 80s comedic counterparts Bill Murray, Chevy Chase, Dan Aykroyd, and Steve Martin (all in plenty of them), I couldn’t immediately think of any sequel that John Candy did. Yet he provided a voice-over in the 1990 Disney animated follow-up The Rescuers Down Under. 

With Marlon Brando, I guess it depends on how you look at it. He refused to come back for a flashback cameo in The Godfather Part II. Yet he did appear in 2006’s Superman Returns… with a caveat. That footage was culled completely from his work nearly three decades earlier in Superman and it happened two years after his death.

So here’s the deal… it is really tough to come up with performers in the modern age who haven’t appeared in at least one sequel. However, here’s five of them and feel free to list others in the comments!

Warren Beatty

He’s famously picky about his projects and he’s never played the same man twice. There were rumors that he wanted to do another Dick Tracy, but it never materialized.

Annette Bening

Beatty’s wife has had a long and distinguished career free of sequels. She was originally cast as Catwoman in 1992’s Batman Returns but dropped out due to pregnancy.

Russell Crowe

The Oscar winner has yet to return to a role, though I’d certainly sign up for The Nice Guys II. P.S. – I do not count Man of Steel as a sequel.

Jodie Foster

She declined to return as Clarice Starling in 2001’s Hannibal after an Oscar-winning turn in The Silence of the Lambs ten years earlier. That was her biggest chance at a sequel and there are none before or after.

Jake Gyllenhaal

His first role was as Billy Crystal’s son in City Slickers, but he was nowhere to be found for part II or any other sequel. However, that long streak ends next summer with Spider-Man: Far From Home.

And there you go! As I said, feel free to chime in with your own non-sequel actors…

A Marvel Cinematic Universe Box Office History

As we await the potentially historic debut of Avengers: Infinity War this weekend, we also mark a decade of the vaunted Marvel Cinematic Universe that began in 2008 with Iron Man. Ten years later, Infinity is the 19th feature in a franchise that has grossed nearly $6 billion stateside and almost $15 billion worldwide. With Friday’s release of Infinity, I’m estimating it will have the second highest domestic debut of all time (behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens).

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/17/avengers-infinity-war-box-office-prediction/

My blog didn’t begin until the fall of 2012, shortly after the release of the first Avengers feature. That means I have done 12 opening weekend box office predictions for MCU releases prior to Infinity. I thought this might be a good time to take a trip down that lane on how I’ve done with their pictures of the past:

Iron Man 3 (2013)

My Prediction: $172.4 million

Opening: $174.1 million

I started off well with my prediction for Tony Stark’s third franchise entry, which had the benefit of coming right on the heels of The Avengers.

Thor: The Dark World (2013)

My Prediction: $85.6 million

Opening: $85.7 million

My high mark in MCU estimates came here – only $100k off!

Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014)

My Prediction: $86.3 million

Opening: $95 million

I underestimated Cap a bit here, but not too shabby.

Guardians of the Galaxy (2014)

My Prediction: $74.6 million

Opening: $94.3 million

Yeah… the sizzling buzz for Guardians in summer 2014 caused anticipation to rise and rise. It’s hard to remember now, but this was actually considered a risk for Marvel at the time. The buzz exceeded my take by nearly $20 million bucks.

Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)

My Prediction: $212.7 million

Opening: $191.2 million

The question with this first Avengers sequel is whether it would top the $207 million achieved by its 2012 predecessor. If so, it would have had the largest domestic opening at the time. I predicted it would and it fell short. Strangely enough, it would be Jurassic World one month later that would earn $208 million and set the debut record until The Force Awakens came along.

Ant-Man (2015)

My Prediction: $73.3 million

Opening: $57.2 million

I gave Paul Rudd and company too much credit here. The Ant-Man is the second lowest MCU debut (only The Incredible Hulk is below it at $55 million). Nevertheless a sequel is on its way this summer.

Captain America: Civil War (2016)

My Prediction: $205.6 million

Opening: $179.1 million

My streak of going over on these predictions continues for the third feature…

Doctor Strange (2016)

My Prediction: $77.3 million

Opening: $85 million

A little low, but at least I got to within $10 million here.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017)

My Prediction: $166.4 million

Opening: $146.5 million

AND we’re back to going high…

Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017)

My Prediction: $117.8 million

Opening: $117 million

After some whiffs, finally got back to solid estimating with Spidey’s well-received reiteration.

Thor: Ragnarok (2017)

My Prediction: $107.6 million

Opening: $122.7 million

Positive WOM pushed Thor’s third feature $15 million better than my projection.

Black Panther (2018)

My Prediction: $193.8 million

Opening: $202 million

This was an estimate that kept going up and up. I got pretty close, but still didn’t have it reaching the $200M+ plus number it achieved.

And there you have it! My checkered MCU history. We shall see how that $242.2 million take for Infinity War pans out soon enough…

Todd’s FINAL 2017 Oscar Winner Predictions

Well… here we are. After months of prognosticating and speculating, the 90th Annual Academy Awards is upon us this Sunday. This post serves as my final predictions for what and who will emerge victorious in five days.

I am listing my predicted winner as well as my runner-up in case I’m not perfect… and I certainly won’t be. I’ll have reaction up Sunday night as to how I did and my general thoughts on the ceremony.

Until then – these are my FINAL Oscar Winner predictions:

Best Picture

Nominees:

Call Me by Your Name

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Get Out

Lady Bird

Phantom Thread

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

PREDICTED WINNER: The Shape of Water

RUNNER-UP: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Director

Nominees:

Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread

Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

Jordan Peele, Get Out

PREDICTED WINNER: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

RUNNER-UP: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

Best Actor

Nominees:

Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

PREDICTED WINNER: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

RUNNER-UP: Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

Best Actress

Nominees:

Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Meryl Streep, The Post

PREDICTED WINNER: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

RUNNER-UP: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World

Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

PREDICTED WINNER: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

RUNNER-UP: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Allison Janney, I, Tonya

Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

PREDICTED WINNER: Allison Janney, I, Tonya

RUNNER-UP: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees:

Call Me by Your Name

The Disaster Artist

Logan

Molly’s Game

Mudbound

PREDICTED WINTER: Call Me by Your Name

RUNNER-UP: Molly’s Game

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees:

The Big Sick

Get Out

Lady Bird

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

PREDICTED WINNER: Get Out

RUNNER-UP: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Animated Feature

Nominees:

The Boss Baby

The Breadwinner

Coco

Ferdinand

Loving Vincent

PREDICTED WINNER: Coco

RUNNER-UP: Loving Vincent

Best Foreign Language Film

Nominees:

A Fantastic Woman

The Insult

Loveless

On Body and Soul

The Square

PREDICTED WINNER: The Insult

RUNNER-UP: A Fantastic Woman

Best Documentary Feature

Nominees:

Abacus: Small Enough to Jail

Faces Places

Icarus

Last Men in Aleppo

Strong Island

PREDICTED WINNER: Icarus

RUNNER-UP: Last Men in Aleppo

Best Film Editing

Nominees:

Baby Driver

Dunkirk

I, Tonya

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

PREDICTED WINNER: Dunkirk

RUNNER-UP: Baby Driver

Best Cinematography

Nominees:

Blade Runner 2049

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Mudbound

The Shape of Water

PREDICTED WINNER: Blade Runner 2049

RUNNER-UP: Dunkirk

Best Production Design

Nominees:

Beauty and the Beast

Blade Runner 2049

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

PREDICTED WINNER: The Shape of Water

RUNNER-UP: Dunkirk

Best Costume Design

Nominees:

Beauty and the Beast

Darkest Hour

Phantom Thread

The Shape of Water

Victoria and Abdul

PREDICTED WINNER: Phantom Thread

RUNNER-UP: The Shape of Water

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees:

Darkest Hour

Victoria and Abdul

Wonder

PREDICTED WINNER: Darkest Hour

RUNNER-UP: Wonder

Best Visual Effects

Nominees:

Blade Runner 2049

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Kong: Skull Island

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

War for the Planet of the Apes

PREDICTED WINNER: Blade Runner 2049

RUNNER-UP: War for the Planet of the Apes

Best Sound Editing

Nominees:

Baby Driver

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

PREDICTED WINNER: Dunkirk

RUNNER-UP: Blade Runner 2049

Best Sound Mixing

Nominees:

Baby Driver

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

PREDICTED WINNER: Dunkirk

RUNNER-UP: Baby Driver

Best Original Score

Nominees:

Dunkirk

Phantom Thread

The Shape of Water

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

PREDICTED WINNER: The Shape of Water

RUNNER-UP: Dunkirk

Best Original Song

Nominees:

“Mighty River” from Mudbound

“Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name

“Remember Me” from Coco

“Stand Up for Something” from Marshall

“This is Me” from The Greatest Showman

PREDICTED WINNER: “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall

RUNNER-UP: “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman 

And that leaves the following breakdown of number of wins for each picture:

4 Wins

The Shape of Water

3 Wins

Dunkirk

2 Wins

Darkest Hour, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Blade Runner 2049

1 Win

I, Tonya, Call Me by Your Name, Get Out, Coco, The Insult, Icarus, Phantom Thread, Marshall

 

2017 Oscar Nominations Reaction

And they’re out!

The nominations for this February’s Academy Awards were revealed this morning by Andy Serkis and Tiffany Haddish. As always, there were some surprises and my months long quest for prediction perfection fell short. Of the 109 nominations, I correctly guessed 78 of them and that works out to 71% (a bit lower than previous years, but oh well).

Here I’ll break down every category and tell you how I did with a bit of analysis:

Best Picture

Nominees: Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

How I Did: 7/9

Analysis: OK, lesson learned. When in doubt, predict NINE. The Best Picture category can fluctuate between 5 and 10 nominees, but that seems to be the magic number. I had The Florida Project in, but it was 8th out of my 8 predictions in likelihood so no big surprise there. Also not surprising is Darkest Hour getting in. A bit more so is the inclusion of Phantom Thread, which did far better this morning than I or almost anyone else figured.

Best Director

Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread), Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water), Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird), Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk), Jordan Peele (Get Out)

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: As mentioned above, the surprise here is Anderson’s nod for Phantom. Hard to believe but this is Nolan’s first nomination for direction. I had Martin McDonagh’s work in Three Billboards included. Worth noting: it’s happened, but it’s rare for a movie to win Best Picture without their maker being recognized. This could fuel even more talk that The Shape of Water is the front-runner in the big race.

Best Actor

Nominees: Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name), Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread), Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out), Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: One of the major questions going into this morning is whether recent allegations could prevent James Franco’s nod for The Disaster Artist. We may never know the answer to that fully, but it was expected he’d be a safe inclusion until then and he missed out. In his place – Mr. Washington, nominated for the second year in a row. In short: this is Oldman’s race to lose and it’s highly doubtful he will.

Best Actress

Nominees: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water), Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Margot Robbie (I, Tonya), Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird), Meryl Streep (The Post)

How I Did: 5/5

Analysis: For quite some time, this has seemed like the five for Actress and it panned out that way.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project), Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water), Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World), Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: Plummer got in for his highly publicized role after taking over for Kevin Spacey at very short notice over my prediction of Armie Hammer in Call Me by Your Name.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Mary J. Blige (Mudbound), Allison Janney (I, Tonya), Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread), Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird), Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: The Phantom love continued with Manville’s inclusion over my prediction for Hong Chau in Downsizing.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Call Me by Your Name, The Disaster Artist, Logan, Molly’s Game, Mudbound

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: In a bit of a surprise to me, Logan became the first superhero flick to get a writing nomination. I had Wonder in instead.

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: The Big Sick, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: I went with I, Tonya over The Big Sick, but this certainly was no shocker. Unlike several prognosticators, I did correctly leave Sick out of the Best Picture race and this marks its sole nod.

Best Animated Feature

Nominees: The Boss Baby, The Breadwinner, Coco, Ferdinand, Loving Vincent

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: People love that Boss Baby apparently. It got in over my projected The Girl Without Hands. This is an easy winner to predict – Pixar’s Coco. 

Best Foreign Language Film

Nominees: A Fantastic Woman, The Insult, Loveless, On Body and Soul, The Square

How I Did: 3/5

Analysis: Golden Globe winner In the Fade and Foxtrot (which some saw as a potential winner) missed the cut. In their place: Soul and Square.

Best Documentary Feature

Nominees: Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Faces Places, Icarus, Last Men in Aleppo, Strong Island

How I Did: 2/5

Analysis: Welp… there always seem to be that category where I whiff and get 2 out of 5 (last year it was Production Design). This year it’s the docs, where Jane (which many saw as a front-runner), City of Ghosts, and Long Strange Trip missed out in favor of Abacus, Aleppo, and Island. 

Best Film Editing

Nominees: Baby Driver, Dunkirk, I, Tonya, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

How I Did: 5/5

Analysis: Besides Actress, this is my only other perfect category.

Best Cinematography

Nominees: Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Mudbound, The Shape of Water

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: Rachel Morrison made some Oscar history by becoming the first female nominated in this category for Mudbound. I predicted The Post over Darkest Hour.

Best Production Design

Nominees: Beauty and the Beast, Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: Wouldn’t you know it? Here’s one race where I had Phantom Thread in and it didn’t make it. Beauty got in instead.

Best Costume Design

Nominees: Beauty and the Beast, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Victoria and Abdul

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: I went with Murder on the Orient Express, but Darkest Hour prevailed. This should be a rather easy victory for Phantom (and perhaps its only).

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees: Darkest Hour, Victoria and Abdul, Wonder

How I Did: 2/3

Analysis: Victoria over I, Tonya. Look for Gary Oldman’s transformation to Churchill in Darkest Hour to be the victor.

Best Visual Effects

Nominees: Blade Runner 2049, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Kong: Skull Island, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, War for the Planet of the Apes

How I Did: 3/5

Analysis: Dunkirk and The Shape of Water were my misses with Guardians and Kong filling in.

Best Sound Editing

Nominees: Baby Driver, Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: Turns out I should have predicted The Shape of Water in both sound categories. I had War for the Planet of the Apes instead here.

Best Sound Mixing

Nominees: Baby Driver, Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: The sound races matched this year with Star Wars in over my predicted The Greatest Showman.

Best Original Score

Nominees: Dunkirk, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

How I Did: 3/5

Analysis: I expected John Williams to be recognized, but for The Post instead of Star Wars. Also had Darkest Hour here and not Three Billboards.

Best Original Song

Nominees: “Mighty River” from Mudbound, “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name, “Remember Me” from Coco, “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall, “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: “The Mystery of Love” got in over “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit. 

And that leaves the final official breakdown of films and number of nominations to this:

13 Nominations

The Shape of Water

8 Nominations

Dunkirk

7 Nominations

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

6 Nominations

Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread

5 Nominations

Blade Runner 2049, Lady Bird

4 Nominations

Call Me by Your Name, Get Out, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

3 Nominations

Baby Driver, I, Tonya

2 Nominations

Beauty and the Beast, Coco, The Post, Victoria and Abdul

1 Nomination

Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, All the Money in the World, The Big Sick, The Boss Baby, The Breadwinner, The Disaster Artist, Faces Places, A Fantastic Woman, Ferdinand, The Florida Project, The Greatest Showman, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Icarus, The Insult, Kong: Skull Island, Last Men in Aleppo, Logan, Loveless, Loving Vincent, Marshall, Molly’s Game, On Body and Soul, Roman J. Israel, Esq., The Square, Strong Island, War for the Planet of the Apes, Wonder

I’ll have a post up either later tonight or tomorrow with my initial round of predicted winners! Until then…

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: January 15th Edition

We have arrived at my penultimate weekly Oscar predictions. With the Oscar nods arriving in 8 days, I will be making my final estimates next Monday. And as we get closer and closer to actually knowing the nominees, there are some notable changes today:

  • Jordan Peele has at last entered my predicted five in the Director category,  replacing Steven Spielberg.
  • Daniel Kaluuya is in Best Actor for the first time, replacing Tom Hanks.
  • Frances McDormand has taken the #1 spot in Actress over Saoirse Ronan.
  • In more good news for Three Billboards, Sam Rockwell has reached the top spot in Supporting Actor over Willem Dafoe.
  • Octavia Spencer has replaced Holly Hunter in Supporting Actress.

You can read it all here with those last estimates coming in one week!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Lady Bird (PR: 3)

4. Dunkirk (PR: 4)

5. Get Out (PR: 6)

6. The Post (PR: 5)

7. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)

8. The Florida Project (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

9. The Big Sick (PR: 9)

10. I, Tonya (PR: 11)

11. Mudbound (PR: 10)

12. Darkest Hour (PR: 13)

13. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)

14. Molly’s Game (PR: 14)

15. Wonder Woman (PR: 15)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 2)

3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

4. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 5)

7. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 7)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)

9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 9)

10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 7)

5. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)

7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 6)

8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)

9. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 9)

10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)

3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)

4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

8. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)

9. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)

10. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 7)

7. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

8. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)

9. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 10)

10. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)

3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)

5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 5)

7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 8)

8. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 7)

9. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Molly’s Game (PR: 2)

3. Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

5. Wonder (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

8. All the Money in the World (PR: 8)

9. Wonder Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hostiles (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

The Beguiled

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)

3. Get Out (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. The Big Sick (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Florida Project (PR: 6)

7. I, Tonya (PR: 8)

8. The Post (PR: 7)

9. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

10. Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dunkirk

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco (PR: 1)

2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)

3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)

4. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 4)

5. Ferdinand (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cars 3 (PR: 7)

7. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)

8. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 8)

9. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 9)

10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)

2. Loveless (PR: 2)

3. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 4)

4. In the Fade (PR: 5)

5. The Insult (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Square (PR: 6)

7. The Wound (PR: 7)

8. On Body and Soul (PR: 8)

9. Felicite (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane (PR: 1)

2. Faces Places (PR: 2)

3. Long Strange Trip (PR: 3)

4. Icarus (PR: 5)

5. City of Ghosts (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Strong Island (PR: 6)

7. Last Men in Aleppo (PR: 7)

8. LA 92 (PR: 9)

9. One of Us (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Human Flow (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Ex Libris: The New York Public Library

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

4. Baby Driver (PR: 6)

5. The Post (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. I, Tonya (PR: 5)

7. Get Out (PR: 7)

8. Lady Bird (PR: 9)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)

10. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Mudbound (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)

8. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)

9. Wonderstruck (PR: 9)

10. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lady Bird

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

2. Dunkirk (PR: 3)

3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

4. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)

5. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 6)

7. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)

8. Downsizing (PR: 9)

9. The Post (PR: 7)

10. Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Greatest Showman

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. The Post (PR: 5)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 6)

7. The Beguiled (PR: 10)

8. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 8)

10. I, Tonya (PR: 4)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Wonder (PR: 2)

3. I, Tonya (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

4. Bright (PR: 4)

5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)

6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 5)

7. Ghost in the Shell (PR: 7)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Okja (PR: 6)

7. Kong: Skull Island (PR: 8)

8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 7)

9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: 9)

10. Alien: Covenant (PR: 10)

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

4. Baby Driver (PR: 3)

5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)

7. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

8. Coco (PR: 8)

9. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 10)

10. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Post

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Baby Driver (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)

7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)

8. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Coco (PR: 8)

10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Post

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

2. Dunkirk (PR: 2)

3. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)

4. The Post (PR: 3)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)

7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 9)

8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

10. Wonderstruck (PR: 10)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)

2. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 2)

3. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 3)

4. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 5)

5. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)

7. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)

8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 7)

9. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 9)

10. “The Star” from The Star (PR: 10)

And that leaves the following breakdown of nominations for each picture –

14 Nominations

The Shape of Water

9 Nominations

Dunkirk

7 Nominations

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

6 Nominations

The Post

5 Nominations

Lady Bird, Blade Runner 2049

4 Nominations

Get Out, Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Mudbound

3 Nominations

Phantom Thread, I, Tonya, Baby Driver

2 Nominations

The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, Wonder, Coco, Beauty and the Beast, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, The Greatest Showman

1 Nomination

Downsizing, Molly’s Game, The Big Sick, Victoria and Abdul, War for the Planet of the Apes, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Girl Without Hands, Ferdinand, Foxtrot, Loveless, A Fantastic Woman, In the Fade, The Insult, Jane, Faces Places, Long Strange Trip, Icarus, City of Ghosts

See you next week!

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: January 8th Edition

Two major developments since last week’s Oscar predictions as the Golden Globes happened and the Production Guild Award nominations came out. Combined with other precursor activity, one thing has become clear to me:

It was time to remove Dunkirk from its months long perch in the #1 slot. It’s fallen to #4 and we finally have a new #1 – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Truth be told, I could have just as easily put The Shape of Water or Lady Bird in that spot. It’s a close race, folks!

Guillermo del Toro replaces Christopher Nolan in the top spot for director, as does Allison Janney in Supporting Actress over Laurie Metcalf.

We are only 15 days away from nominations and here’s my take at this moment:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Previous Ranking: 2)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

3. Lady Bird (PR: 5)

4. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

5. The Post (PR: 3)

6. Get Out (PR: 7)

7. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)

8. The Florida Project (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

9. The Big Sick (PR: 12)

10. Mudbound (PR: 11)

11. I, Tonya (PR: 13)

12. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

13. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)

14. Molly’s Game (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Wonder Woman (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Blade Runner 2049

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 4)

4. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

5. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 8)

7. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 6)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)

9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 9)

10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 6)

7. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 7)

8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 9)

9. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 8)

10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)

4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

5. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

8. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 10)

9. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 8)

10. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 7)

8. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)

9. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)

10. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jason Mitchell, Mudbound 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 1)

3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)

5. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

7. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 8)

8. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 7)

9. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Molly’s Game (PR: 2)

3. Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

5. Wonder (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)

8. All the Money in the World (PR: 8)

9. Hostiles (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Beguiled (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

Blade Runner 2049

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)

3. Get Out (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. The Big Sick (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Florida Project (PR: 7)

7. The Post (PR: 6)

8. I, Tonya (PR: 9)

9. Phantom Thread (PR: 8)

10. Dunkirk (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Darkest Hour

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco (PR: 1)

2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)

3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)

4. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 5)

5. Ferdinand (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)

7. Cars 3 (PR: 4)

8. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 8)

9. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 9)

10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)

2. Loveless (PR: 2)

3. The Insult (PR: 4)

4. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 3)

5. In the Fade (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Square (PR: 5)

7. The Wound (PR: 7)

8. On Body and Soul (PR: 9)

9. Felicite (PR: 8)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane (PR: 1)

2. Faces Places (PR: 2)

3. Long Strange Trip (PR: 5)

4. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)

5. Icarus (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Strong Island (PR: 4)

7. Last Men in Aleppo (PR: 7)

8. Human Flow (PR: Not Ranked)

9. LA 92 (PR: 8)

10. Ex Libris – The New York Public Library (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Chasing Coral 

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. The Post (PR: 3)

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. I, Tonya (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)

7. Get Out (PR: 9)

8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)

9. Lady Bird (PR: 7)

10. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

7. Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)

9. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Hostiles

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Dunkirk (PR: 3)

4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

5. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 6)

7. The Post (PR: 7)

8. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)

9. Downsizing (PR: 5)

10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 10)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)

5. The Post (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 6)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 5)

8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

9. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)

10. The Beguiled (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Wonder (PR: 2)

3. I, Tonya (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

4. Bright (PR: 3)

5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 5)

6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)

7. Ghost in the Shell (PR: 7)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Okja (PR: 6)

7. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 8)

8. Kong: Skull Island (PR: 7)

9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: 9)

10. Alien: Covenant (PR: 10)

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)

4. Baby Driver (PR: 3)

5. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)

7. Coco (PR: 8)

8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

9. Detroit (PR: 10)

10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 9)

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Baby Driver (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)

7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)

8. Coco (PR: 8)

9. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Detroit

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

2. Dunkirk (PR: 2)

3. The Post (PR: 4)

4. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)

7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)

9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)

10. Wonderstruck (PR: 9)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)

2. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)

3. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 2)

4. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 5)

5. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)

7. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 8)

8. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)

9. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 9)

10. “The Star” from The Star (PR: 10)

And that leaves the following nomination breakdown for each picture –

13 Nominations

The Shape of Water

9 Nominations

Dunkirk

8 Nominations

The Post

7 Nominations

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

5 Nominations

Lady Bird, I, Tonya, Blade Runner 2049

4 Nominations

Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread

3 Nominations

Mudbound

2 Nominations

Get Out, The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, The Big Sick, Wonder Coco, Beauty and the Beast, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Baby Driver, The Greatest Showman

1 Nomination

Downsizing, Molly’s Game, War for the Planet of the Apes, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Girl Without Hands, Ferdinand, Foxtrot, Loveless, The Insult, A Fantastic Woman, In the Fade, Jane, Faces Places, Long Strange Trip, City of Ghosts, Icarus