Tag: Straight Outta Compton

May 1-3 Box Office Predictions

Two decades after the original was a blockbuster that showed staying power, The Devil Wears Prada 2 should fashion an impressive start to kick off May. We also have haunted house horror flick Hokum and Andy Serkis directed animated adaptation of Animal Farm debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

The Devil Wears Prada 2 Box Office Prediction
Hokum Box Office Prediction
Animal Farm Box Office Prediction

Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and others are back for Prada 2 in a sequel that seems to have audiences with a genuine eagerness to revisit the characters. The original opened to $27 million, but the follow-up is expected to triple those numbers. A best case scenario could be nine digits. I have it in the mid 80s as nostalgia and a high female turnout should push it to a runaway #1 debut.

Expectations are more tempered with other newbies. My mid single digits projection for the well-reviewed Hokum with Adam Scott should mean a fifth place showing.

As for Animal Farm from Angel Studios, meh reviews and a quiet marketing campaign could put this in low single digits. My $2.7 million forecast certainly leave it outside of the high five.

Besides the Prada premiere, the second major storyline is how Michael will perform in its sophomore frame after a sizzling beginning (more on that below). The musical biopic wasn’t a hit with many critics (38% on Rotten Tomatoes), but patrons are digging it as evidenced by the 97% audience score on the same site. Encouraging word-of-mouth might result in a drop in the 40% range. That’s similar to where Bohemian Rhapsody and Elvis eased in their second weekends. However, due to the sheer size of its performance, I will hedge and say a mid to high 40s drop could occur.

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary should respectively move down a slot to third and fourth and add to their considerable hauls.

Here’s how I see the top five shaking out:

1. The Devil Wears Prada 2

Predicted Gross: $86.5 million

2. Michael

Predicted Gross: $51 million

3. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Predicted Gross: $12.6 million

4. Project Hail Mary

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

5. Hokum

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (April 24-26)

Michael wanted to be startin’ with the greatest opening ever for its genre and it achieved that and then some. The look at Michael Jackson’s first two decades of massive fame stunned with $97.2 million compared to my $81 million prediction. That blows away the former musical biopic record of $60 million held by Straight Outta Compton. It will need $216 million to claim the largest domestic take for that genre held by Bohemian Rhapsody. That should happen.

After three weeks in the pole position, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie was second with $20.5 million. That’s in line with my $19.9 million take as the animated sequel grew to $385 million. A gross over $400 million is set to arrive by this weekend.

Project Hail Mary was third with $12.8 million as its 37% fall in weekend #6 was more Earth bound than previous meager declines. The sci-fi awards hopeful sits at $305 million.

Lee Cronin’s The Mummy held a bit better in frame #2 than I figured with $5.5 million compared to my $4.4 million call. The poorly received attempted franchise reboot has made only $23 million after two weeks.

The Drama rounded out the top five with $2.6 million (I said $2.8 million) for a four-week total of $44 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

April 24-26 Box Office Predictions

Michael looks to set records for its genre just as its title subject set records in the music business decades ago. Antoine Fuqua’s look at Michael Jackson’s life is the primary wide release this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Michael Box Office Prediction

As outlined in that post, Michael looks to surpass the $60 million mark that Straight Outta Compton set for best ever in the musical biopic field. I am projecting it will do so with plenty of room to spare in the low-80s. If it hits that figure, it will certainly stand a good shot at surpassing the $216 million that Bohemian Rhapsody made back in 2018. If and when it achieves a gross beyond that number, it’ll set the high mark overall domestically in the genre. There is some concern that subpar reviews might be a hindrance, but I’m still banking on a wide audience turnout.

The emergence of the King of Pop will cause The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary to drop spots after being 1-2 for the last three weekends. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy should see the biggest percentage drop of holdovers are an unimpressive start (more on that below) with The Drama rounding out the top five.

I will note that Mother Mary with Anne Hathaway could pop into the high five with a planned expansion. However, I’ve yet to see a theater count following a limited release on the coasts so I’m not placing it there.

Here’s how I envision it all shaking out:

1. Michael

Predicted Gross: $81 million

2. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Predicted Gross: $19.9 million

3. Project Hail Mary

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million

4. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

5. The Drama

Predicted Gross: $2.8 million

Box Office Results (April 17-19)

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie ruled the charts once again in its third frame with $36.4 million, in range with my $38.4 million prediction. After three weeks, the animated sequel has generated $356 million as it should blast past $400 million in short order.

Project Hail Mary was runner-up and it continued a remarkable run of meager declines. The sci-fi critical and commercial hit made $20.5 million, ahead of my $17.9 million forecast. The five-week total is rock solid $285 million.

Horror heavy franchise reboot Lee Cronin’s The Mummy stumbled in third with $13.5 million, under my $17.2 million take. With so-so reviews, scary movie fans did not turn out in the way Warner Bros. hoped for. With a C+ Cinemascore grade, look for this to wrap up its theatrical run quickly.

The Drama was fourth with $4.8 million, not matching my $6 million call. The unconventional romance is up to $39 million after three weekend.

Rom com You, Me & Tuscany fell 50% in its sophomore outing to fifth with $3.8 million (I said $4.5 million) for $14 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Michael Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate looks for Michael to pop with a large audience when it debuts April 24th. Antoine Fuqua moves away from Equalizer franchise flicks to helm the biopic of Michael Jackson. The legend’s nephew Jafaar Jackson is in the title role. Costars include Colman Domingo and Nia Long as MJ’s parents as well as Laura Harrier, Juliano Krue Valdi (playing the singer as a boy), and Miles Teller.

This genre has been flooded with titles in the last decade or so. Massive successes include Bohemian Rhapsody and Elvis. Others like Rocketman and Bob Marley: One Love performed admirably while Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody and Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere had their struggles.

Centered on one of music’s most beloved and controversial performers, expectations are understandably lofty for Michael. This should appeal to multiple demographic groups. There are records in the musical biopic classification that appear likely to be broken. Bohemian has the largest overall stateside earnings at $216 million. Straight Outta Compton boasts the best opening at $60 million. This could cause both of those high marks to bite the dust.

Anything below Compton‘s $60 million would be considered underwhelming. My hunch is to put this at the upper end of its range in the low 80s. I wouldn’t even be shocked to see it surpass that despite subpar reviews.

Michael opening weekend prediction: $81 million

36th PGA Awards Nominations Predictions

The Producers Guild of America (PGA) release their contenders for top film as well as animated offering this Sunday, January 12th. Last year, the PGA managed to match Oscar 10 for 10 in terms of Best Picture nominees.

That could certainly happen again and I believe eight movies are safe bets for PGA (and Oscar) inclusion: Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Substance, and Wicked.

After that it gets a little tricky. It is not out of the ordinary for PGA to nominate more mainstream material that the Academy ignores in BP. Examples over the past decade include Gone Girl, Straight Outta Compton, Deadpool, Wonder Woman, Crazy Rich Asians, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery.

What could fit that description for PGA? There aren’t a lot of surefire contenders. I don’t see Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga or Gladiator II having enough juice to get into the 10. Same for Inside Out 2. I do think Challengers or Nosferatu could sneak in and I’m giving an edge to the former.

Films such as A Real Pain, September 5, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, or All We Imagine as Light could really benefit from a slot at PGA. So too could Nickel Boys and Sing Sing. Both of them are (currently) in my Oscar ten. I’ll give Nickel the slight edge over Sing at PGA.

PGA also honors animated pics and they often prioritize blockbuster fare over smaller titles. That’s why you could see Despicable Me 4, Moana 2, or Transformers One represented here over Memoir of a Snail or even Flow.

Here’s my predictions in the two categories with an alternate in each:

Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures

Anora

The Brutalist

Challengers

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

Nickel Boys

The Substance

Wicked

Alternate – Sing Sing

Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures

Despicable Me 4

Flow

Inside Out 2

Moana 2

The Wild Robot

Alternate – Transformers One

AFI Awards 2024: Reaction

Each year the American Film Institute (AFI) names their ten best films of the year and it’s become a reliable bell weather for 7-8 Best Picture nominees at the Oscars. How about a look at the past 15 years and their track record since the Academy expanded to more than five BP contenders?

2009: 5/10 match

2010: 9/10

2011: 7/9

2012: 8/9

2013: 7/9

2014: 6/8

2015: 6/8

2016: 7/9

2017: 7/9

2018: 5/8

2019: 7/9

2020: 6/8

2021: 8/10

2022: 7/10

2023: 8/10

There’s an important caveat as this is the American Film Institute. Therefore movies considered international do not make the cut. They often get a “special” award and that was the case with Roma, Parasite, and The Banshees of Inisherin.

Today’s AFI announcement was surprising in the sense that there was only one. Emilia Pérez was thought by most to be ineligible for the 10 due to its foreign flavor, but it managed to make the cut. The AFI list is as follows:

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

Nickel Boys

A Real Pain

Sing Sing

Wicked

Not a shocker in the group. This seems like a key inclusion for Nickel Boys and A Real Pain in solidifying their status as legit BP players. I suspect that if some prognosticators knew Emilia would be eligible, several of them would’ve gone 10/10.

Let’s analyze, shall we? The AFI has a habit of naming mainstream pics that the Academy ignores. Examples in the last decade include Into the Woods, Inside Out, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Straight Outta Compton, Zootopia, Wonder Woman, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, Knives Out, Soul, Nope, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.

Note the amount of animated features. This is where a nod for The Wild Robot wouldn’t have been unexpected. The fact that it didn’t land here is an indication of its chances in the Academy’s BP derby… none. The same might be said for Gladiator II. It’s been out of my top 10 and I had it placed 13th in Other Possibilities last weekend. Don’t be surprised it drops out of the top 15 in my next update.

Other features that could have benefitted from a spot here include The Substance, September 5, Nosferatu, Blitz, The Room Next Door, and recent Gotham recipient A Different Man.

That said… we don’t expect this to be the Oscar top ten…

Do we?!? It sure could be. Yes, that would be the first time AFI and the Academy match 10/10. Yet the only difference I have right now is The Substance over A Complete Unknown and the latter seems to be picking up some steam. We still have Critics Choice and their top ten en route. They’re another pretty reliable barometer. I’ll say right now, though, that at least 8 of AFI’s picks will be the Academy’s and perhaps more…

Keep an eye on this blog for all Oscar precursor chatter!

35th Producers Guild of America Awards Nominations Predictions

As if there weren’t enough Oscar precursor activity with the SAG and DGA nominations arriving tomorrow, the Producers Guild of America (PGA) unveil their ten nominees for Best Theatrical Motion Picture and Best Animated Motion Picture on Friday.

In 2021, the Academy reverted back to a set 10 for BP contenders. There was an 8 for 10 correlation that year between the PGA’s movies and the Academy’s. Last year it was 7 for 10.

One commonality is that international titles usually don’t make the cut with PGA. While Parasite was a rare exception in 2019, Drive My Car and All Quiet on the Western Front weren’t to be found on PGA’s list in the last two years. Therefore I’m leaving out Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest for the 35th ceremony. Either or both could pop up, but this seems to be the smarter play.

With those potential Oscar BP hopefuls out, I do believe there’s a somewhat safe 8 to predict: American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things. I could see one or two potentially miss – Fiction, Maestro, and Lives might be vulnerable. Yet I won’t go as far in projecting any of them out.

That leaves two slots. The PGA often goes for blockbusters that the Academy ignores. Examples over the past decade include Straight Outta Compton, Deadpool, Wonder Woman, A Quiet Place, Crazy Rich Asians, Knives Out, and its sequel Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery.

The list does not include Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse from 2018 (somewhat surprisingly). I’m hesitant, therefore, to include its sequel Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. The PGA could simply decide that it’ll likely win their Animated race and can be left off. However, Across was an even bigger financial success with glowing reviews. I’ve gone back and forth on this one, but I’m giving Spidey one of the open spots.

For the tenth film, there’s plenty of hopefuls. Could this be where The Color Purple makes a last stand for viability with the Academy? Could The Iron Claw pop up? Perhaps PGA will go with an unexpected title that didn’t garner across the board critical acclaim, but has a high profile director. Napoleon or Ferrari come to my mind. Will Saltburn or May December get in?

Those are all, to varying degrees, feasible. I ultimately am going with Air from Ben Affleck. While I don’t think it gets in for BP at the Oscars, the reviews and overall feeling that this is a rock solid sports drama puts it in over some of the aforementioned others.

As for the animated race and their five contenders, we’ve already established that Spidey is in. Because of the international movies thing, you may not find freshly minted Golden Globe winner The Boy and the Heron here. That same logic could apply to Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget. We shall see.

Let’s get to the list of nominees and an alternate, shall we?

Best Theatrical Motion Picture

Predicted Nominees:

Air

American Fiction

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: The Color Purple

Best Animated Motion Picture

Predicted Nominees:

Elemental

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Wish

Alternate: Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

34th PGA Awards Winner Predictions

Ahead of Sunday evening’s Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, it’s the producers turn on Saturday night. The 34th PGA Awards winner for their best in show has matched the Oscar Picture victor 70% of the time in the previous decade. The times they diverged were 2015 with PGA naming The Big Short instead of Spotlight, 2016 with La La Land over Moonlight, and 2019 when 1917 took the producer prize as opposed to Parasite. PGA also has animated and documentary competitions. I’m walking through them one by one with a winner and runner-up projection.

Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures

Nominees:

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

The Whale

There’s a 7 for 10 correlation with the PGA contenders and the BP hopefuls from the Academy. The former has Black Panther, Glass Onion, and The Whale up while the Oscars went with All Quiet on the Western Front, Triangle of Sadness, and Women Talking. The PGA is known for favoring blockbusters over some smaller pics from time to time. Previous examples that didn’t make the Academy’s cut include Bridesmaids, Skyfall, Gone Girl, Straight Outta Compton, Deadpool, Wonder Woman, and Crazy Rich Asians.

This helps explain why some prognosticators are favoring Maverick to take PGA’s highest award. Another explanation is that pundits are attempting to make the race more exciting than it actually is. I do believe Everything Everywhere All at Once is still most likely to emerge. Maverick does warrant runner-up status.

Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures

Nominees:

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Minions: The Rise of Gru

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Turning Red

Guillermo del Toro’s Netflix rendering of the classic tale has cleaned up with precursors and there’s no reason to believe it won’t with PGA.

Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Runner-Up: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures

Nominees:

All That Breathes

Descendant

Fire of Love

Navalny

Nothing Compares

Retrograde

The Territory

I wrongly picked Fire of Love to win the BAFTA instead of Navalny. Have I learned my lesson? Nope! I’m doubling down and saying a Fire PGA victory will make the Oscar quintet more competitive.

Predicted Winner: Fire of Love

Runner-Up: Navalny

I’ll have a recap up Saturday evening or Sunday ahead of the SAG show. If you missed my SAG predictions, they can be accessed here:

29th SAG Awards Winner Predictions

AFI Top Ten Predictions 2022

The American Film Institute announces their top ten pictures of the year tomorrow and it’s usually a good indication of half or more of the eventual BP contenders at the Oscars.

Keep in mind that American product only is eligible for this particular group. Since this list began in 2000, the Academy’s BP recipient has only missed here five times. Four of those occasions were due to the whole country of origin thing – 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire, 2010’s The King Speech, The Artist in 2011, and Parasite from 2019. The Departed in 2006 also didn’t make the cut. This means you shouldn’t expect Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Decision to Leave, or RRR to surface here.

So what will? The AFI ten and the Oscar ten had a solid match last year at 8. Tick, Tick… Boom! and The Tragedy of Macbeth were the AFI inclusions that didn’t make it with the Academy. They went with two features from outside the U.S. in Belfast and Drive My Car. In recent years, the match number is usually 6 or 7.

It’s not uncommon for AFI to pick blockbusters or animated fare that the Academy does not. Recent examples include Soul, Knives Out, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, Wonder Woman, Zootopia, Inside Out, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, and Straight Outta Compton.

Let’s talk of the pics I have just missing the cut. It was hard to leave off Tár. If it fails to be named tomorrow, that would be two disappointing days in a row after it surprisingly missed the National Board of Review (NBR) list today. Same goes for She Said and The Whale while Till did make NBR. More popcorn flavored flicks like The Batman, Nope, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever are all viable contenders.

We shall see if any of them get in. Avatar, Babylon, Elvis, Glass Onion, Pinocchio, and The Woman King all feel like pics that should make it here if they have any hope of making the Academy’s cut. It is rare for the Oscars to nominate a more mainstream title that AFI doesn’t.

I’ll have a recap up tomorrow with commentary and how I did!

AFI Top Predictions

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Top Gun: Maverick

The Woman King

Women Talking

2021 DGA and PGA Nominations Predictions

Two significant Academy precursors are coming our way tomorrow when the Directors and Producers Guilds of America reveal nominees. Both groups could shed major light on who and what we will see on Oscar nomination morning in less than two weeks.

The DGA nominates five directors for their top prize and it is a reliable preview for usually 4 of the 5 eventual hopefuls at the big show. In the past five years, the DGA’s list corresponds with the Academy’s on the 4 of 5 ratio. The exception was 2018 when it was 3/5. You have to go back to 2009 to find the last year in which there was a perfect match.

For weeks, my Oscar projections in Best Director has remained consistent: Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Steven Spielberg (West Side Story), and Denis Villeneuve (Dune). That’s probably the safest lineup to predict for DGA as well, but I’m hesitant to do so since it’s been over a decade with the two corresponding.

So who’s vulnerable and who could rise up? It’s hard to see Campion (the Oscar frontrunner), Villeneuve, or Spielberg missing. Same generally goes for Branagh though there’s whispers that Belfast could be slipping a bit (still not enough for me to take him out). That leaves Anderson and there’s some precedent. In 2017, the Academy nominated him for Phantom Thread while DGA omitted him. He’s the easiest to leave off their ballot.

Who takes his place? I doubt that it’s Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car. In recent times, the Academy has been more generous with nods for filmmakers and their international features. Last year, they nominated Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) and in 2018 they did the same for Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War) while DGA ignored them.

If there’s a surprise fifth nominee in store, watch out for Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley), Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter) or Sian Heder (CODA). However, I think it could come down to Joel Coen (The Tragedy of Macbeth) and Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up). The latter is a two-time DGA nominee (The Big Short and Vice) and Don’t Look Up is a buzzy streaming success story that’s been widely viewed. Coen, on the other hand, could be honored for the technical mastery of Macbeth. 

This is a close call, but I’m ever so slightly leaning toward McKay and I’ll go that route. Therefore – my official DGA predictions are:

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up

Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Denis Villeneuve, Dune

Runner-Up: Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Second Alternate: Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth 

Let’s move to the PGA, shall we? Over the last five years, these are the matches between the Producers and the Academy when it comes to their Best Picture awards:

2016: 9/9

2017: 7/9

2018: 8/8

2019: 9/9

2020: 7/8

It’s important to keep in mind that the Academy, for the past several years, can have anywhere between 5-10 BP contenders (the magic number has been 8 or 9). Yet in 2021, the Oscars are reverting back to a set 10 (the PGA always nominates 10 except for 2017 when they had 11 for some inexplicable reason).

That means there’s only been three films (Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread in 2017 and The Father in 2020) that received Oscar nods and didn’t materialize on the PGA list.

My current 10 selections for BP from the Academy are as follows: Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, Dune, House of Gucci, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story.

I’m estimating that only Gucci and Tragedy could be truly vulnerable to miss the PGA cut (anything else being left off would constitute a pretty big surprise). If that happens, CODA or Richard might be the ones.

In my view, Tragedy is exactly the kind of feature that PGA may not recognize. Gucci is more of a question mark as the Producers generally like to nominate pictures that performed well at the box office. To that point, the PGA has a history of honoring moneymakers that the Academy does not. Recent examples include Bridesmaids, Skyfall, Gone Girl, Straight Outta Compton, Deadpool, Wonder Woman, Crazy Rich Asians, A Quiet Place, and Knives Out.

That could absolutely open the door for No Time to Die or Spider-Man: No Way Home… or both. I’m slightly more hesitant to include Spidey being that neither Avengers: Infinity War or Endgame got PGA love. However, I’m not oblivious to the fact that this guild may want to mention the picture that broke pandemic era box office records.

Outside of the blockbuster mold, you could also see titles like Being the Ricardos, Drive My Car, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley, or Tick, Tick… Boom! factor in.

I’m keeping Gucci in (with extreme uncertainty) and projecting 007 in the mega-earner slot so here’s my PGA ten:

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

Dune

House of Gucci

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

No Time to Die

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Runner-Up: Spider-Man: No Way Home

Second Alternate: The Tragedy of Macbeth 

So there you have it! I’ll have reaction up on both DGA and PGA tomorrow on the blog…

The Lone Screenplay Nominee: An Oscar Prediction Analysis

We are getting the nitty gritty on nailing down Oscar predictions on this blog and it’s time to consider a prevailing trend in the 21st century when it comes to the Adapted and Original Screenplay contests. That would be The Lone Screenplay Nominee.

What’s that you ask? For the last 20 award ceremonies, at least one movie has been nominated in its screenplay race and in no other additional category. That’s a rather startling statistic, but it’s true. You have to go all the way to 2000 to find a year in which the ten nominated films in those two derbies didn’t get a nod elsewhere.

Here’s the list from 2001-2020 of pictures that got The Lone Screenplay nomination (abbreviation are AS for Adapted and OS for Original):

2001 – Ghost World (AS), The Royal Tenenbaums (OS)

2002 – About a Boy (AS), My Big Fat Greek Wedding, Y Tu Mama Tambien (OS)

2003 – American Splendor (AS), Dirty Pretty Things (OS)

2004 – Before Sunset (AS)

2005 – Match Point, The Squid and the Whale (OS)

2006 – Borat (AS)

2007 – Lars and the Real Girl (OS)

2008 – Happy-Go-Lucky, In Bruges (OS)

2009 – In the Loop (AS)

2010 – Another Year (OS)

2011 – The Ides of March (AS), Margin Call (OS)

2012 – Moonrise Kingdom (OS)

2013 – Before Midnight (AS)

2014 – Nightcrawler (OS)

2015 – Straight Outta Compton (OS)

2016 – 20th Century Women, The Lobster (OS)

2017 – The Disaster Artist, Logan, Molly’s Game (AS), The Big Sick (OS)

2018 – First Reformed (OS)

2019 – Knives Out (OS)

2020 – The White Tiger (AS)

Clearly the writing branch of the Academy enjoy singling out a pic or two that doesn’t get any love elsewhere. And it’s a tradition that I haven’t really factored into my predictions for 2021’s hopefuls. That changes today.

My latest round of predictions from last week were the following for Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay:

Adapted – CODA, Dune, The Lost Daughter, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story

Original – Being the Ricardos, Belfast, Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza

Here’s the problem – all ten of those pictures are highly likely to find nominations elsewhere.

So… what’s vulnerable and what are the movies that could fit the Lone Screenplay Nominee mold when the announcement is made on February 8?

Glad you asked. In Adapted, Dune could absolutely miss. The voters in the screenplay race could decide that it’ll get plenty of tech nods (it will) as well as Picture and Director mentions (highly probable). Its screenplay nod could  wait until its sequel.

So what are the contenders in Adapted that may not get nods elsewhere? There’s The Last Duel, which could get points for its unique script that tells its medieval tale from three differing perspectives. It appears to have little chance at Picture or even Jodie Comer’s acclaimed performance in lead actress.

There’s also Passing, but that’s assuming Ruth Negga misses out in Supporting Actress (and I’ve got her in). Other possibilities are Nightmare Alley (though it should at least be recognized for Production Design) and Tick, Tick… Boom! (which could be in line for Picture but especially for Andrew Garfield in lead actor). The Lost Daughter could be the one. However, I have a hard time seeing Olivia Colman not getting in for Best Actress.

Moving to Original Screenplay, my five current nominees all seem destined to achieve mentions elsewhere. I look at King Richard and Being the Ricardos as potentially being two that could miss the screenplay cut.

There are three pictures with original scripts that could fill the slots and be The Lone Nominee and they are:

    • C’Mon C’Mon. And there’s history here. Mike Mills was the writer/director for the aforementioned 20th Century Women from 2016. With Joaquin Phoenix as a long shot for Best Actor inclusion, this is the type of nominee that the writers might celebrate.
    • Mass. It looked like a potential BP nominee for some time but it has fallen (it’s not even in my top 15). Ann Dowd could score a Supporting Actress nomination, but I currently have her ranked 7th. It’s a pic that’s all dialogue between four actors and that could strike the voters fancies.
    • Parallel Mothers. The Pedro Almodovar pic was not Spain’s selection for International Feature Film and is therefore not eligible. Penelope Cruz is a possibility for Actress, but I have her outside the top five.

When I update my estimates for all categories this weekend, expect to see one of these titles (either in Adapted or Original or maybe both) selected. History says it’s the right call. Stay tuned!