Country star Joel Smallbone cowrites, co-directs, and plays his own father in Unsung Hero. The faith and factually based drama is out April 26th as the musician shares screenwriting and filmmaking duties with Richard Ramsey. Smallbone is a member of the Christian pop band For King & Country as this recounts his upbringing in Tennessee after moving from Australia. Daisy Betts, Kirrilee Berger, Jonathan Jackson, Lucas Black, and Cameron Cameron Buge are among the supporting cast.
The Lionsgate release is out stateside a month before the Australian premiere. Lionsgate hopes fans of the band make the theatrical trek and that brings us to my usual caveat. Faith-based pics are tough to project. They can easily exceed expectations, but they’ve been known to underwhelm from time to time (for instance Ordinary Angels didn’t match my prediction a few weeks ago).
I’ve yet to see a theater count so my projection could change when I see that figure. A high single digits start (or even low double digits) would easily put it in the runner-up spot. Mid single digits is what I’m forecasting and that might put it anywhere from 2-6 depending on how holdovers perform as April closes out. My current number has it rounding out the high five or being 6th instead of being 2nd.
Unsung Hero opening weekend prediction: $4.7 million
Kung Fu Panda 4 will attempt to kick Dune: Part Two out of the top spot this weekend and we also have Blumhouse horror flick Imaginary and faith-based biopic Cabrini debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:
I am estimating that DreamWorks Animation’s Panda franchise will continue its downward trend with a high 30s start after the longest layoff between entries.
If that occurs, that likely means a 2nd place showing behind the sophomore frame of Dune: Part Two. That hotly anticipated sequel opened right in line with expectations (more on that below) and had an A Cinemascore grade. Some of its business is understandably frontloaded, but its drop could hold up sturdier than other genre fare in the high 40s to low 50s range.
Blumhouse should have another profitable fright fest with Imaginary considering its reported low budget. However, I don’t envision it premiering anywhere near the studio’s biggest earners. A low double digits gross could put it in third.
That’s unless Cabrini overperforms and it’s the weekend wild car in my view. Coming from Angel Studios and the director of last summer’s smash Sound of Freedom, this could surprise if faith-based crowds turn out in force. On the other hand, Angel’s follow-ups like After Death and The Shift have only managed mid single digits out of the gate. I’m splitting the difference and forecasting a fourth place finish.
Finally, Bob Marley: One Love should round out the top five as it attempts to reach $100 million domestically.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Dune: Part Two
Predicted Gross: $40.7 million
2. Kung Fu Panda 4
Predicted Gross: $38.1 million
3. Imaginary
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
4. Cabrini
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
5. Bob Marley: One Love
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (March 1-3)
I had Dune: Part Two doubling the debut of its 2021 predecessor and that’s precisely what occurred. The sequel, which landed even better reviews than the heavily Oscar nominated original, took in $82.5 million. That’s in line with my $83.6 million prediction and just over what Oppenheimer premiered with last summer. Christopher Nolan’s biopic (which is about to be crowned Best Picture) experienced only a 43% second weekend decline. As mentioned, Dune‘s should be more, but perhaps not by too much.
After two weeks in first, Bob Marley: One Love was second with $7.4 million and that’s right on target with my $7.5 million call. That biopic now stands at $82 million after three weeks.
Ordinary Angels remained in third with $3.8 million, falling shy of my $4.9 million projection. The faith-based drama with Hilary Swank has $12 million in its coffers after two weeks.
The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8 was fourth with $3.2 million (I said $2.9 million). Since its Leap Day Thursday opening, the total is $4 million.
Finally, superheroine flop Madame Web was fifth with $3.1 million (I said $2.9 million) for a mere $40 million in its three frames of release.
The month of March blows in some much needed excitement at the box office with Dune: Part Two storming theaters. It looks to dominate the charts with easily the largest debut of 2024 thus far and my detailed prediction post on it can be accessed here:
My low to mid 80s take has it doubling the premiere gross of its 2021 predecessor (which had COVID limitations and debuted simultaneously on Max). Those restrictions are gone and it’s generating stronger reviews than part one, which managed 10 Oscar nominations.
The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8 is available just like the first six shows at multiplexes beginning Thursday. My Friday to Sunday estimate puts it in a battle for fourth place with comic book based dud Madame Web‘s third frame.
Current two-week champ Bob Marley: One Love should slide a spot to 2nd with a mid 40s dip. Ordinary Angels is likely to stay third and with an A+ Cinemascore grade, its decline could be minimal (maybe mid to high teens range).
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training was last weekend’s biggest newcomer and had the largest per theater average of all. Like its predecessor To the Swordsmith Village, it should find itself out of the high five as it’s primarily playing as a one-week engagement.
Here’s how I see the top 5 breaking down:
1. Dune: Part Two
Predicted Gross: $83.6 million
2. Bob Marley: One Love
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
3. Ordinary Angels
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
4. Madame Web
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
5. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
Box Office Results (February 23-25)
Biopic Bob Marley: One Love felt the love again in first place with $13.4 million in its sophomore outing. It fell an understandable 53% and didn’t match my rosier $16.2 million projection. The overall tally is a buoyant $71 million.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashita Training managed to outdo Swordsmith by around a million bucks with $11.5 million for the runner-up spot. That’s also the margin that it outpaced my $10.5 million call.
Ordinary Angels took in $6.1 million for third, falling below my $8 million forecast. The faith-based drama, as mentioned, is garnering praise from audiences and it could experience small declines in the coming weeks.
Madame Web, after a troubling start, dropped 61% for fourth at $5.9 million (just over my $5.6 million prediction). The subpar total since Valentine’s Day is $35 million.
Migration rounded out the top five with $2.8 million (I said $2.9 million) for $120 million in ten weeks.
Argylle was sixth with $2.7 million compared to my $3 million guesstimate as the spy comedy has made $41 million in four weeks.
Wonka was seventh with $2.4 million. I didn’t project a number for it and the holiday confection hit $214 million after 11 weeks.
Finally, Ethan Coen’s road comedy Drive-Away Dolls stalled in eighth with $2.4 million, in line with my $2.6 million prediction.
Hilary Swank is a double Oscar winner in Best Actress. She went 2 for 2 with 1999’s Boys Don’t Cry and 2004’s Million Dollar Baby. Fun fact: she’s probably responsible for Annette Bening not having an Academy Award as she was likely runner-up for American Beauty in ’99 and Being Julia five years later.
Bening might be up this year for Nyad, but Swank has a rare big screen starring role this weekend in Ordinary Angels. The faith-based and fact-based drama is from filmmaker Jon Gunn with a screenplay by Kelly Fremon Craig and Meg Tilly. Alan Ritchson, Nancy Travis, and Tamala Jones costar.
Reviews are actually solid with 80% on RT and several critics praising Swank’s work. That said, this is not a genre where the Academy often takes notice. While this appears to be a crowdpleaser with a 100% audience score on the Tomato site, don’t expect this to make the cut in Actress or other categories. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Bob Marley: One Love, after a terrific opening well above expectations, looks to make it two weeks in a row atop the charts. Competition comes from Japan’s animated sequel Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training, inspirational drama Ordinary Angels with Hilary Swank, and Ethan Coen’s road comedy Drive-Away Dolls. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newbies here:
With a A Cinemascore grade, Marley could be loved enough for a mid to high 40s decline in its sophomore outing. That should put it in the low to mid teens and I figure that’ll be strong enough for the gold.
I have Demon Slayer in the runner-up slot just past $10 million (similar to what predecessor To the Swordsmith Village achieved).
The wildcard might be Ordinary Angels. Faith-based titles can often exceed estimates and I wouldn’t be shocked if it rises to above $10 million. My current projection has it in third.
While Marley outperformed predictions, Madame Web got off to a rocky start and a concerning C+ Cinemascore grade. I’m envisioning a mid 60s plummet and fourth place.
Argylle should round out the top five in a close call with Migration. Then there’s Drive-Away Dolls. Despite a reported 2000 theater rollout, promotion has been scant and it might have to settle for seventh behind Migration.
Here’s how I envision the top 7 playing out:
1. Bob Marley: One Love
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million
2. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
3. Ordinary Angels
Predicted Gross: $8 million
4. Madame Web
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
5. Argylle
Predicted Gross: $3 million
6. Migration
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
7. Drive-Away Dolls
Predicted Gross: $2.6 million
Box Office Results (February 16-19)
The affection was evident over Valentine’s Day/President’s Day for Bob Marley: One Love as the biopic (despite so-so reviews) blew away forecasts with $33.6 million from Friday to Monday and $51.5 million since its Wednesday start on Valentine’s Day. That’s way beyond my respective takes of $19.2 million and $28.9 million.
Madame Web got tangled up in bad buzz and poor critical reaction and the financial figures followed suit. Dakota Johnson’s superhero tale made only $15.3 million for the four-day and $26 million since Wednesday. I was more generous at $21.5 million and $30.7 million. As mentioned, look for it to fade rapidly.
Argylle was third with $5.8 million over the long holiday compared to my $4.5 million call. The three-week total is $37 million.
The fourth and fifth place performers were holiday holdovers that I incorrectly had outside of the top five. Migration made $5.3 million to bring its haul to $116 million while Wonka added $4.6 million for $211 million overall.
The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4-6 was sixth with $3.9 million, not matching my $6.1 million projection. It opened on Thursday so the total is $4.7 million.
Finally, The Beekeeper was seventh at $3.7 million (I said $2.6 million) for $60 million in its coffers.
Two-time Academy Award winner Hilary Swank headlines the inspiration true-life drama Ordinary Angels as Lionsgate hopes this baby makes several million dollars out of the gate. Jon Gunn, the filmmaker behind Do You Believe? and The Case for Christ, directs with a supporting cast including Alan Ritchson, Nancy Travis, and Tamala Jones. There are some noteworthy behind the scenes players involved with Kelly Fremon Craig (writer/director of The Edge of Seventeen and Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret) sharing script duties with actress Meg Tilly.
Angels was originally slated to touch down in theaters on October 13th last year until it (wisely) moved to make way for Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour. These faith-based offerings can manage to outperform expectations. I wouldn’t be shocked if an opening weekend in the $10 million range materialized, but my forecast puts it a bit under.
Ordinary Angels opening weekend prediction: $8 million
For my Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training prediction, click here:
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