Tag: Penélope Cruz

99th Academy Awards Predictions: July 5th Edition

Happy 250th birthday weekend, America! And what better way to celebrate than with fresh Oscar predictions now that we’ve surpassed the midway point of 2026. That means I’m expanding my forecasts from 8 categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies, the two screenplays contests) to all 21 races covering feature-length motion pictures.

This is the first glimpse at how many overall nominations I believe the hopefuls will generate. It arrives approximately two months before the fall festival season (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) kicks into gear. That trio of fests will undoubtedly alter the landscape of contenders and pretenders.

When I do my next predictions, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will be out. We will have a much better ide whether it deserves the perch atop Best Picture and Director and elsewhere. As soon as reviews drop, look for my individual Oscar Predictions post with the next full update likely arriving on July 19th.

I’ve put Inde Navarrette’s work in Obsession back in lead Actress as opposed to Supporting Actress. The studio could place it in either as we await word on their strategy. As of now, I feel her performance could materialize in both races. I’m also placing all performers from The Black Ball in supporting until that is clarified.

I’m keeping my BP listings at 25 and the seven top line races that I’ve previously covered at 15 possibilities. For the other competitions, I am listing 10 possibilities.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Obsession (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. All of a Sudden (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Behemoth! (PR: 16) (+4)

13. The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)

14. A Place in Hell (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Fatherland (PR: 15) (-1)

17. The Invite (PR: 17) (E)

18. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)

20. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (E)

21. Michael (PR: 24) (+3)

22. Josephine (PR: 21) (-1)

23. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

24. Jack of Spades (PR: 22) (-2)

25. Werwulf (PR: 18) (-7)

Dropped Out:

Saturn Return

Club Kid

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)

7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (E)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Penélope Cruz, Bunker

Zendaya, The Drama

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)

7. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (E)

11. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 13) (E)

14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball – moved to Supporting Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+7)

4. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (E)

12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (E)

14. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to lead Actress)

Gemma Chan, Josephine

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 13) (+4)

10. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actor

15. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Milo Quifes, The Black Ball

Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Obsession (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)

7. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Club Kid (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Primetime (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Fatherland (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)

15. The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saturn Return

Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Invite (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Prima Facie (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Wildwood (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Minotaur (PR: 13) (-1)

15. A Long Winter (PR: 14) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball

2. Fjord

3. All of a Sudden

4. Minotuar

5. Coward

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland

7. Possible Love

8. Mimesis

9. Rose

10. The Beloved

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood

2. Toy Story 5

3. Ray Gunn

4. Tangles

5. Hoppers

Other Possibilities:

6. In Waves

7. Forgotten Island

8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom

9. Iron Boy

10. Minions & Monsters

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem

2. Nuisance Bear

3. To Hold a Mountain

4. The History of Concrete

5. When a Witness Recants

Other Possibilities:

6. American Doctor

7. One in a Million

8. Time and Water

9. Rehearsals for a Revolution

10. Everybody to Kenmure Street

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Wild Horse Nine

4. Digger

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. Fjord

7. The Debut

8. Dune: Part Three

9. Cry to Heaven

10. Behemoth!

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Dune: Part Three

4. The Black Ball

5. Digger

Other Possibilities:

6. Cry to Heaven

7. Fatherland

8. Werwulf

9. Disclosure Day

10. Jack of Spades

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Sense and Sensibility

4. Cry to Heaven

5. Dune: Part Three

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2

8. Jack of Spades

9. Wuthering Heights

10. I Love Boosters

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Digger

4. Project Hail Mary

5. Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three

7. Cry to Heaven

8. Fjord

9. Obsession

10. Behemoth!

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Digger

2. Werwulf

3. The Odyssey

4. Clayface

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball

7. Dune: Part Three

8. Cry to Heaven

9. The Bride!

10. Madden

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Project Hail Mary

4. Disclosure Day

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three

7. Digger

8. Wild Horse Nine

9. Wildwood

10. The Social Reckoning

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5

2. TBD from The Black Ball

3. TBD from The Debut

4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad

Other Possibilities:

6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2

7. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights

8. TBD from Hexed

9. “Save the Day” from Hoppers

10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Dune: Part Three

4. The Black Ball

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger

7. Werwulf

8. Jack of Spades

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

10. Backrooms

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three

2. The Odyssey

3. Project Hail Mary

4. The Black Ball

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. Disclosure Day

7. Cry to Heaven

8. Digger

9. Werwulf

10. Obsession

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three

2. Project Hail Mary

3. The Odyssey

4. Godzilla Minus Zero

5. Whalefall

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday

7. Disclosure Day

8. Wildwood

9. The End of Oak Street

10. The Sheep Detectives

And that works out to my inaugural tally showing these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Black Ball, The Odyssey

10 Nominations

Digger, White Horse Nine

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

6 Nominations

Dune: Part Three, Fjord

5 Nominations

The Debut

4 Nominations

Cry to Heaven

3 Nominations

Michael, Obsession

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

Clayface, Coward, Disclosure Day, Godzilla Minus Zero, The History of Concrete, Hoppers, The Invite, Minotaur, Nuisance Bear, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Werwulf, Whalefall, When a Witness Recants. Wildwood

99th Academy Awards Predictions: June 28th Edition

As we move closer to knowing whether Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey deserves its placeholder #1 rankings in Best Picture and Director, we have seen some new trailers for consideration in the two weeks since my last update. I have said that you can’t judge a movie by its trailer, but we can look for clues about who the studio will focus on.

Jesse Eisenberg’s follow-up to A Real Pain (which won Kieran Culkin a Supporting Actor Oscar) is not titled No One Cares (which was rumored to be a working name). The first preview reveals it is called The Debut with hints that it’s a somewhat of two-hander between Julianne Moore and Paul Giamatti. That said, I still have Halle Bailey listed as a possibility in Supporting Actress.

We got our first glimpse of Georgia Oakley’s Sense and Sensibility with Daisy Edgar-Jones and Esmé Creed-Miles vying for noms. And we witnessed a Digger promotional ad that certainly indicated the studio will be all in on Tom Cruise.

Also in the past two weeks, Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day has proven to be a box office disappointment. In my estimation, its chances in BP and Emily Blunt in Best Actress have gone down.

Toy Story 5 also opened and while reviews were fine, many critics deemed it the weakest of the quintet. Unlike Toy Story 3 and like Toy Story 4, it should reserve a slot in Best Animated Feature but not Best Picture.

Finally, The Invite from Olivia Wilde opened in limited fashion before a nationwide rollout in July. Word-of-mouth is strong and I’m beginning to think it could at least manage an Adapted Screenplay nod… if not more.

You can read all the movement below including a new #1 in Best Actress and some serious shifts in Supporting Actress!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Obsession (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Place in Hell (PR: !3) (+2)

12. The Social Reckoning (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (+2)

14. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Fatherland (PR: 16) (+1)

16. Behemoth! (PR: 17) (+1)

17. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

18. Werwulf (PR: 18) (E)

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 20) (+1)

20. Disclosure Day (PR: 14) (-6)

21. Josephine (PR: 21) (E)

22. Jack of Spades (PR: 19) (-3)

23. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Michael (PR: 23) (-1)

25. Club Kid (PR: 25) (E)

Dropped Out:

Being Heumann

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (E)

14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (E)

15. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Robert Eggers, Werwulf

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR 8) (+1)

8. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (E)

12. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (E)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: 14) (E)

15. Zendaya, The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Guitarricadelfuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Jordan Firstman, Club Kid

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)

3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 11) (+4)

8. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 3) (-7)

11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Elizbeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (E)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 9) (+1)

9. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 8) (-5)

14. Milo Quifes, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tom Holland, The Odyssey

Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven

Owen Cooper, Cry to Heaven

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Debut (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Obsession (PR: 6) (E)

7. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (E)

8. Club Kid (PR: 9) (E)

9. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York City (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (E)

11. Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Fatherland (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Primetime (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Saturn Return (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Drama

Disclosure Day

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Invite (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cry to Heaven (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Prima Facie (PR: 11) (E)

12. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (E)

13. Minotaur (PR: 15) (+2)

14. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tony

99th Academy Awards Predictions: June 14th Edition

It’s been two weeks since my last round of predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting competitions. With mid-June upon us, I am now adding my first takes on the two screenplay derbies.

What’s changed in the last two weeks? In my estimation, Obsession has picked up considerable momentum with its astonishing box office performance. I am now vaulting the low-budget horror smash from #25 all the way into the BP lineup. Additionally, I am now thinking that Focus Features will slot Inde Navarrette and her buzzy performance to Supporting Actress and I’m placing her in my quintet all the way in second position.

While Obsession‘s fortunes have risen, I would say Disclosure Day from Steven Spielberg has taken a slight downturn. The sci-fi saga which debuted this weekend in line with financial expectations (though certainly not over them) will have to battle other blockbusters (Project Hail Mary, The Odyssey, Dune: Part Three) over the next several months for awards viability. It could still get in (and so could Emily Blunt in Actress). However, the non-gushing critical response and mixed audience reaction is a potential roadblock.

Trailers can be deceiving when evaluating a picture’s Oscar chances. Yet I have to admit that I found our first look at The Social Reckoning underwhelming and I dropped it from my BP lineup, putting it just on the outside looking in.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. No One Cares (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Obsession (PR: 25) (+15)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (-2)

12. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (E)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (-2)

15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Fatherland (PR: 13) (-3)

17. Behemoth! (PR: 19) (+2)

18. Werwulf (PR: 16) (-2)

19. Jack of Spades (PR: 18) (-1)

20. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 17) (-3)

21. Josephine (PR: 23) (+2)

22. Saturn Return (PR: 24) (+2)

23. Michael (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Being Heumann (PR: 20) (-4)

25. Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Entertainment System is Down

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (E)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (E)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day

Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 2) (E)

3. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)

8. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to Supporting Actress)

Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 13) (+7)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 11) (E)

12. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 12) (E)

13. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 10 (-4)

15. Jordan Firstman, Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Javier Bardem, The Beloved

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead Actress)

3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (E)

11. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Scarlet Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Adele, Cry to Heaven

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (-7)

15. Owen Cooper, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

Antonio Banderas, Tony

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine

2. Digger

3. Fjord

4. No One Cares

5. A Place in Hell

Other Possibilities:

6. Obsession

7. Behemoth!

8. Club Kid

9. Fatherland

10. Jack of Spades

11. Primetime

12. Josephine

13. The Drama

14. Disclosure Day

15. Saturn Return

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball

2. The Odyssey

3. Project Hail Mary

4. All of a Sudden

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilties:

6. The Social Reckoning

7. Dune: Part Three

8. Sense and Sensibility

9. The Invite

10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

11. Prima Facie

12. Being Heumann

13. A Long Winter

14. Tony

15. Minotaur

Oscar Predictions: The Black Ball

A nearly 160 minute epic spanning decades of gay history in Spain, Javier Calva and Javier Ambrossi’s The Black Ball (or La bola negra in its home language) was greeted with an extended ovation at the Cannes Film Festival. Telling three stories interconnected over 85 years, the cast includes singer Guitarricadelafuente, Miguel Bernardeau, Carlos González, Milo Quifes, Lola Dueñas, Julio Torres, Glenn Close, and Penélope Cruz.

Based on an unfinished play by Federico Garcia Lorca, all eyes are on the Cannes jury to see if Ball picks up a major prize later this weekend. The melodrama is being highly praised with many critics calling it a festival standout. Rotten Tomatoes is at 88% with 85 on Metacritic.

This is exactly the type of ambitious project that the Academy could honor in numerous categories including Best Picture and Director (the filmmakers are collectively known as Los Javis). The buzz reminds me of Emilia Pérez when it was unburdened by the controversies that would eventually follow. We probably have our Spanish submission for International Feature Film where this has immediately become a surefire contender. The reaction also indicates this could play in several down-the-line races like Casting, Costume Design, Production Design, and Sound.

As for the actors, Casting could be seen as a way to honor them all. Quifes seems to be generating particular attention. With Penélope Cruz, her small but memorable part might be remembered in Supporting Actress where she may also be in contention for this summer’s The Invite. Close’s role sounds too minor.

Just this morning, Netflix won the bidding war for Ball‘s release. Expect them to go all out in their campaign. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Bride!

Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Bride! is out Friday and her loose rendering of The Bride of Frankenstein is drawing plenty of differing reactions. Jessie Buckley, who appears poised to win Best Actress next weekend for Hamnet, is in the title role with Christian Bale as The Monster. Costars include Peter Sarsgaard, Annette Bening, Jake Gyllenhaal, and Penélope Cruz.

Reviews are mixed with 60% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 55 Metacritic. Whereas Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein landed five nominations at next Sunday’s 98th Academy Awards including Best Picture, The Bride!‘s chances are more limited.

It is entirely realistic that Gyllenhaal’s treatment of Mary Shelley’s 200-year-old plus novel will receive no awards attention. Production Design is a remote possibility with Makeup and Hairstyling (a race where Frankenstein is a near certainty to emerge victorious) is the strongest possibility. That’s a different story than the filmmaker’s debut feature The Lost Daughter which was up in Actress (Olivia Colman), Supporting Actor (Buckley’s first nom), and Adapted Screenplay. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Bride! Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros is counting on moviegoers to walk down multiplex aisles when The Bride! opens March 6th. Maggie Gyllenhaal directs the gothic thriller based on The Bride of Frankenstein. Jessie Buckley and Christian Bale headline the odd romance. Costars include Peter Sarsgaard (Maggie’s husband), Annette Bening, Jake Gyllenhaal (Maggie’s brother), and Penélope Cruz.

With a reported $80 million budget, the studio is seeking lots of RSVPs. Buckley is likely on the precipice of an Oscar win for Hamnet with Bale as the monstrous “Frank”. I’m not convinced their star power equals an impressive gross. The Bride! faces challenges. Scream 7 will be in its sophomore weekend and still posting solid figures. I question the mainstream appeal of this based on trailers and TV spots. Most importantly, plenty of potential viewers might feel like they got their Frankenstein fix via Guillermo del Toro’s Best Picture nominated Netflix version just four months ago.

Familiarity with the source material could still propel this to a premiere in the low to mid teen. My gut says to take the under and that means a disappointing result just over $10 million.

The Bride! opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million

For my Hoppers prediction, click here:

Hoppers Box Office Prediction

Venice Makes Room for Next Door

The 2024 Venice Film Festival has wrapped production with a bit of a surprise ending. Pedro Almodóvar’s English language debut The Room Next Door has taken the Golden Lion (equivalent to Best Picture) in Italy. The relationship drama starring Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton has received positive reviews (95% RT), but the general consensus is they might not have been strong enough for this particular prize.

What does that mean for its Oscar chances? Well, it certainly helps exposure prior to its December 20th limited stateside start and nationwide expansion in January. Five of the past seven Golden Lion recipients have ended up nabbing BP nods – The Shape of Water (winner), Roma, Joker, Nomadland (winner), and Poor Things.

Venice spreads the wealth when it comes to the victors. The Silver Lion designation (equivalent to Best Director) was bestowed to Brady Corbet for The Brutalist. The Holocaust survivor epic was the breakout of the fest with its awards possibilities going through the roof. It could become a major player at the 97th Academy Awards and Corbet’s inclusion here proves it. On the other hand, this was probably the betting odds favorite for the Lion and didn’t get there.

The Volpi Cups go to Actor and Actress. The former went to Vincent Lindon for The Quiet Son. It’s doubtful that he’ll be a factor in the Academy’s race. In the past decade, two Volpi Actor winners have garnered Oscar nods (Willem Dafoe for At Eternity’s Gate and Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin).

In Best Actress, the story could be different with Nicole Kidman being named for Babygirl. Seeking her sixth Academy nom, she was unable to accept the Venice award due to her mother’s passing. At the Oscars, Best Actress is starting to look crowded. Yet A24 is likely to mount a spirited campaign for the performer. Half of the previous the Actress honorees have made the Academy’s cut: winners Emma Stone (La La Land) and Olivia Colman (The Favourite) in addition to Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), and Cate Blanchett (Tár).

Keep checking the blog for rolling awards coverage!

30th SAG Awards Winner Predictions

The 30th SAG Awards air this Saturday and they are rightly viewed as an often reliable barometer for the Oscars, especially in the acting derbies. The biggest prize honors the strongest ensemble and that’s a less reliable match with Best Picture. Over the past 10 ceremonies, the correlation has been 5 out of 10 and that includes the last two shows with CODA and Everything Everywhere All at Once.

On the other hand, it was four for four in Actress, Actor, and the supporting competitions last year. That also holds true for 2021.

Sunday’s program could solidify frontrunner statuses for Actress/Actor hopefuls and further potential sweeps for the supporting players. Let’s walk through all 6 categories with a winner and runner-up selection.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

You have to go back to the second SAG Awards and The Birdcage to find a nominee that wasn’t an Oscar BP nominee so you can cross The Color Purple out immediately. My hunch is this comes down to Barbenheimer. We know that Oppenheimer is the overwhelming favorite for the Academy’s BP. However, Barbie could legitimately pick this up. This is a close call and I wouldn’t totally rule out Fiction. Yet the fact is that Oppenheimer might be strong enough to nab this one in addition to all the other precursors.

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Barbie

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

This is where Gladstone could make the Oscar race a nail biter. Stone has taken Critics Choice and BAFTA. If she gets the victory at SAG, she’ll become the easy favorite. Arguably a coin flip, but I’m sensing Stone gets it.

Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Poor Things

Runner-Up: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Read what I said about Female Actor in a Leading Role. In this race, Cillian Murphy is Emma Stone. Paul Giamatti is Lily Gladstone (except Giamatti took Critics Choice). Murphy could achieve frontrunner status or Giamatti could make it a jump ball. I’m projecting the latter.

Predicted Winner: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Penélope Cruz (Ferrari), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Randolph has been the victor everywhere important and I don’t see SAG interrupting her sweep.

Predicted Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie)

Read what I said about Female Actor in a Supporting Role. Robert Downey Jr. is Da’Vine Joy Randolph.

Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Wick: Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning

The sequel heavy lineup marks the first nomination for a John Wick pic. Some prognosticators are going with it, but I’m forecasting the Mission series (in its third try) pulls through.

Predicted Winner: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning

Runner-Up: John Wick: Chapter 4

That means the tally goes like this:

2 Wins

The Holdovers, Oppenheimer

1 Win

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Poor Things

I’ll have a recap up after the show this weekend!