Tag: Penélope Cruz

99th Academy Awards Predictions: June 14th Edition

It’s been two weeks since my last round of predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting competitions. With mid-June upon us, I am now adding my first takes on the two screenplay derbies.

What’s changed in the last two weeks? In my estimation, Obsession has picked up considerable momentum with its astonishing box office performance. I am now vaulting the low-budget horror smash from #25 all the way into the BP lineup. Additionally, I am now thinking that Focus Features will slot Inde Navarrette and her buzzy performance to Supporting Actress and I’m placing her in my quintet all the way in second position.

While Obsession‘s fortunes have risen, I would say Disclosure Day from Steven Spielberg has taken a slight downturn. The sci-fi saga which debuted this weekend in line with financial expectations (though certainly not over them) will have to battle other blockbusters (Project Hail Mary, The Odyssey, Dune: Part Three) over the next several months for awards viability. It could still get in (and so could Emily Blunt in Actress). However, the non-gushing critical response and mixed audience reaction is a potential roadblock.

Trailers can be deceiving when evaluating a picture’s Oscar chances. Yet I have to admit that I found our first look at The Social Reckoning underwhelming and I dropped it from my BP lineup, putting it just on the outside looking in.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. No One Cares (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Obsession (PR: 25) (+15)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (-2)

12. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (E)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (-2)

15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Fatherland (PR: 13) (-3)

17. Behemoth! (PR: 19) (+2)

18. Werwulf (PR: 16) (-2)

19. Jack of Spades (PR: 18) (-1)

20. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 17) (-3)

21. Josephine (PR: 23) (+2)

22. Saturn Return (PR: 24) (+2)

23. Michael (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Being Heumann (PR: 20) (-4)

25. Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Entertainment System is Down

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (E)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (E)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day

Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 2) (E)

3. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)

8. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to Supporting Actress)

Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 13) (+7)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 11) (E)

12. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 12) (E)

13. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 10 (-4)

15. Jordan Firstman, Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Javier Bardem, The Beloved

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead Actress)

3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (E)

11. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Scarlet Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Adele, Cry to Heaven

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (-7)

15. Owen Cooper, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

Antonio Banderas, Tony

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine

2. Digger

3. Fjord

4. No One Cares

5. A Place in Hell

Other Possibilities:

6. Obsession

7. Behemoth!

8. Club Kid

9. Fatherland

10. Jack of Spades

11. Primetime

12. Josephine

13. The Drama

14. Disclosure Day

15. Saturn Return

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball

2. The Odyssey

3. Project Hail Mary

4. All of a Sudden

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilties:

6. The Social Reckoning

7. Dune: Part Three

8. Sense and Sensibility

9. The Invite

10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

11. Prima Facie

12. Being Heumann

13. A Long Winter

14. Tony

15. Minotaur

Oscar Predictions: The Black Ball

A nearly 160 minute epic spanning decades of gay history in Spain, Javier Calva and Javier Ambrossi’s The Black Ball (or La bola negra in its home language) was greeted with an extended ovation at the Cannes Film Festival. Telling three stories interconnected over 85 years, the cast includes singer Guitarricadelafuente, Miguel Bernardeau, Carlos González, Milo Quifes, Lola Dueñas, Julio Torres, Glenn Close, and Penélope Cruz.

Based on an unfinished play by Federico Garcia Lorca, all eyes are on the Cannes jury to see if Ball picks up a major prize later this weekend. The melodrama is being highly praised with many critics calling it a festival standout. Rotten Tomatoes is at 88% with 85 on Metacritic.

This is exactly the type of ambitious project that the Academy could honor in numerous categories including Best Picture and Director (the filmmakers are collectively known as Los Javis). The buzz reminds me of Emilia Pérez when it was unburdened by the controversies that would eventually follow. We probably have our Spanish submission for International Feature Film where this has immediately become a surefire contender. The reaction also indicates this could play in several down-the-line races like Casting, Costume Design, Production Design, and Sound.

As for the actors, Casting could be seen as a way to honor them all. Quifes seems to be generating particular attention. With Penélope Cruz, her small but memorable part might be remembered in Supporting Actress where she may also be in contention for this summer’s The Invite. Close’s role sounds too minor.

Just this morning, Netflix won the bidding war for Ball‘s release. Expect them to go all out in their campaign. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Bride!

Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Bride! is out Friday and her loose rendering of The Bride of Frankenstein is drawing plenty of differing reactions. Jessie Buckley, who appears poised to win Best Actress next weekend for Hamnet, is in the title role with Christian Bale as The Monster. Costars include Peter Sarsgaard, Annette Bening, Jake Gyllenhaal, and Penélope Cruz.

Reviews are mixed with 60% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 55 Metacritic. Whereas Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein landed five nominations at next Sunday’s 98th Academy Awards including Best Picture, The Bride!‘s chances are more limited.

It is entirely realistic that Gyllenhaal’s treatment of Mary Shelley’s 200-year-old plus novel will receive no awards attention. Production Design is a remote possibility with Makeup and Hairstyling (a race where Frankenstein is a near certainty to emerge victorious) is the strongest possibility. That’s a different story than the filmmaker’s debut feature The Lost Daughter which was up in Actress (Olivia Colman), Supporting Actor (Buckley’s first nom), and Adapted Screenplay. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Bride! Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros is counting on moviegoers to walk down multiplex aisles when The Bride! opens March 6th. Maggie Gyllenhaal directs the gothic thriller based on The Bride of Frankenstein. Jessie Buckley and Christian Bale headline the odd romance. Costars include Peter Sarsgaard (Maggie’s husband), Annette Bening, Jake Gyllenhaal (Maggie’s brother), and Penélope Cruz.

With a reported $80 million budget, the studio is seeking lots of RSVPs. Buckley is likely on the precipice of an Oscar win for Hamnet with Bale as the monstrous “Frank”. I’m not convinced their star power equals an impressive gross. The Bride! faces challenges. Scream 7 will be in its sophomore weekend and still posting solid figures. I question the mainstream appeal of this based on trailers and TV spots. Most importantly, plenty of potential viewers might feel like they got their Frankenstein fix via Guillermo del Toro’s Best Picture nominated Netflix version just four months ago.

Familiarity with the source material could still propel this to a premiere in the low to mid teen. My gut says to take the under and that means a disappointing result just over $10 million.

The Bride! opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million

For my Hoppers prediction, click here:

Hoppers Box Office Prediction

Venice Makes Room for Next Door

The 2024 Venice Film Festival has wrapped production with a bit of a surprise ending. Pedro Almodóvar’s English language debut The Room Next Door has taken the Golden Lion (equivalent to Best Picture) in Italy. The relationship drama starring Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton has received positive reviews (95% RT), but the general consensus is they might not have been strong enough for this particular prize.

What does that mean for its Oscar chances? Well, it certainly helps exposure prior to its December 20th limited stateside start and nationwide expansion in January. Five of the past seven Golden Lion recipients have ended up nabbing BP nods – The Shape of Water (winner), Roma, Joker, Nomadland (winner), and Poor Things.

Venice spreads the wealth when it comes to the victors. The Silver Lion designation (equivalent to Best Director) was bestowed to Brady Corbet for The Brutalist. The Holocaust survivor epic was the breakout of the fest with its awards possibilities going through the roof. It could become a major player at the 97th Academy Awards and Corbet’s inclusion here proves it. On the other hand, this was probably the betting odds favorite for the Lion and didn’t get there.

The Volpi Cups go to Actor and Actress. The former went to Vincent Lindon for The Quiet Son. It’s doubtful that he’ll be a factor in the Academy’s race. In the past decade, two Volpi Actor winners have garnered Oscar nods (Willem Dafoe for At Eternity’s Gate and Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin).

In Best Actress, the story could be different with Nicole Kidman being named for Babygirl. Seeking her sixth Academy nom, she was unable to accept the Venice award due to her mother’s passing. At the Oscars, Best Actress is starting to look crowded. Yet A24 is likely to mount a spirited campaign for the performer. Half of the previous the Actress honorees have made the Academy’s cut: winners Emma Stone (La La Land) and Olivia Colman (The Favourite) in addition to Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), and Cate Blanchett (Tár).

Keep checking the blog for rolling awards coverage!

30th SAG Awards Winner Predictions

The 30th SAG Awards air this Saturday and they are rightly viewed as an often reliable barometer for the Oscars, especially in the acting derbies. The biggest prize honors the strongest ensemble and that’s a less reliable match with Best Picture. Over the past 10 ceremonies, the correlation has been 5 out of 10 and that includes the last two shows with CODA and Everything Everywhere All at Once.

On the other hand, it was four for four in Actress, Actor, and the supporting competitions last year. That also holds true for 2021.

Sunday’s program could solidify frontrunner statuses for Actress/Actor hopefuls and further potential sweeps for the supporting players. Let’s walk through all 6 categories with a winner and runner-up selection.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

You have to go back to the second SAG Awards and The Birdcage to find a nominee that wasn’t an Oscar BP nominee so you can cross The Color Purple out immediately. My hunch is this comes down to Barbenheimer. We know that Oppenheimer is the overwhelming favorite for the Academy’s BP. However, Barbie could legitimately pick this up. This is a close call and I wouldn’t totally rule out Fiction. Yet the fact is that Oppenheimer might be strong enough to nab this one in addition to all the other precursors.

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Barbie

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

This is where Gladstone could make the Oscar race a nail biter. Stone has taken Critics Choice and BAFTA. If she gets the victory at SAG, she’ll become the easy favorite. Arguably a coin flip, but I’m sensing Stone gets it.

Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Poor Things

Runner-Up: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Read what I said about Female Actor in a Leading Role. In this race, Cillian Murphy is Emma Stone. Paul Giamatti is Lily Gladstone (except Giamatti took Critics Choice). Murphy could achieve frontrunner status or Giamatti could make it a jump ball. I’m projecting the latter.

Predicted Winner: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Penélope Cruz (Ferrari), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Randolph has been the victor everywhere important and I don’t see SAG interrupting her sweep.

Predicted Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie)

Read what I said about Female Actor in a Supporting Role. Robert Downey Jr. is Da’Vine Joy Randolph.

Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Wick: Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning

The sequel heavy lineup marks the first nomination for a John Wick pic. Some prognosticators are going with it, but I’m forecasting the Mission series (in its third try) pulls through.

Predicted Winner: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning

Runner-Up: John Wick: Chapter 4

That means the tally goes like this:

2 Wins

The Holdovers, Oppenheimer

1 Win

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Poor Things

I’ll have a recap up after the show this weekend!