Oscar Predictions: Operation Mincemeat

It was released across the pond last month and Operation Mincemeat hits US small screens tomorrow courtesy of Netflix. The World War II drama comes from John Madden, whose Shakespeare in Love won Best Picture just over 23 years ago. Lately he’s been best known for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and its sequel. The cast is led by Best Actor recipient for The King’s Speech Colin Firth as well as Matthew McFadyen, Kelly Macdonald, Penelope Wilton, Johnny Flynn, and Jason Isaacs.

The Rotten Tomatoes score is 92%. Yet many of those positive reviews aren’t quite raves. Perhaps Costume Design or Production Design isn’t completely out of the question and maybe BAFTA voters will take notice of it. However, the likelier scenario is that Netflix will have bigger contenders that they’ll be championing and not this particular operation. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

2021 Oscars: FINAL Winner Predictions

And it’s come to this! After seven months of endless speculation, predictions, and posts – the 94th Academy Awards (with your hosts Wanda Sykes, Amy Schumer, and Regina Hall) airs this Sunday evening.

These are my final picks for the races covering feature films. Will the Best Picture be CODA?

Or The Power of the Dog?

We have ourselves some real intrigue as both are strong possibilities. Either way, a steamer (either Netflix or Apple TV) should pick up its inaugural Best Pic victory.

Will there be upsets in any of the acting derbies where there seems to be a consensus four based on precursors? And just what will occur in the screenplay races which look unpredictable?

For each race, I’ll give you a bit of commentary along with my projected victor and the runner-up.

Let’s get to it! On Sunday evening, you will see a recap with how I performed…

Best Picture

Nominees:

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

Drive My Car

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Commentary:

Well, the big daddy of them all has certainly become fascinating. CODA, the little Sundance pic that could, has surged in the past few days. In addition to winning the SAG Ensemble prize, it captured the Producers Guild top honor and was a BAFTA selection for Adapted Screenplay. These designations (PGA especially) are significant precursors. A strong argument could be made that it has the momentum as voting closed yesterday. In fact, I’ve seen more prognosticators picking it this week than not…

However, The Power of the Dog is still quite viable. It took the Golden Globe Best Drama trophy as well as Critics Choice and BAFTA. Until CODA‘s rise, it was the heavy favorite.

We’ve got a real coin flip, folks! That definitely makes the end of Oscar night more suspenseful than last year when Nomadland seemed unbeatable and indeed was.

I don’t believe any of the other eight pictures have a chance. As for the two that do, I’ve gone back and forth constantly all week. There’s a time to stop speculating and make a final pick and I still believe there’s enough power for the Dog to edge out CODA. That said, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if it turns out the other way.

PREDICTED WINNER:

The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up:

CODA

Best Director

Nominees:

Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Commentary:

This is far easier than Picture. With CODA maker Sian Heder absent, Jane Campion is in line to become the third female (and second in a row) to make a podium trip. She’s won all the key precursors – DGA, Globes, Critics Choice. It’s even a challenge to name a runner-up (I guess I’ll say Spielberg because he’s Spielberg). Make no mistake – this is one of the simplest checkmarks on the ballot.

PREDICTED WINNER:

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up:

Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Best Actress

Nominees:

Jessicas Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Commentary:

Kidman garnered the initial heat after a surprise Globe win, but that’s stalled as no other awards programs followed suit. Instead it’s been Chastain on the minor streak with SAG and Critics Choice. If there’s an upset in any acting derby, this is probably where it happens. Stewart’s road to Oscar looked shaky after some snubs. Academy voters could reward her and there’s some chatter about Cruz being viable. Yet I’m sticking with the safest best and that’s Chastain taking her first gold.

PREDICTED WINNER:

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Riunner-Up:

Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Best Actor

Nominees:

Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom!

Will Smith, King Richard

Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Commentary:

During the fall, I was thinking there could be a barnburner between Smith and Cumberbatch (with Garfield as potential spoiler). That’s not how it’s played out as the Fresh Prince has been crowned the king in all preceding shows. I expect the sweep to continue.

PREDICTED WINNER:

Will Smith, King Richard

Runner-Up:

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:

Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Judi Dench, Belfast

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

Commentary:

Buckley and Dench were surprising inclusions, but there won’t be any shocks with the winner. DeBose has run the table and she should represent Story‘s lone victory.

PREDICTED WINNER:

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Runner-Up:

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:

Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Commentary: 

Despite its quartet of performers getting nominations, Dog is likely to produce Oscars for none of them. Smit-McPhee received the Golden Globe but it’s been all Kotsur since. This is the race where I’m most confident of a CODA moment.

PREDICTED WINNER:

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Runner-Up:

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog 

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees:

Belfast

Don’t Look Up

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

The Worst Person in the World

Commentary:

Good luck with this one! The Writer’s Guild threw everyone for a loop last weekend when Don’t Look Up won over Licorice Pizza (Belfast was not eligible). I just don’t envision the Academy honoring Up. With a Belfast or Pizza victory, they would bestowing first ever Oscars to Kenneth Branagh and Paul Thomas Anderson respectively. With the Globe and Critics Choice going to Belfast, it has my vote (though it’s close).

PREDICTED WINNER:

Belfast

Runner-Up:

Licorice Pizza

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees

CODA

Drive My Car

Dune

The Lost Daughter

The Power of the Dog 

Commentary:

CODA‘s BAFTA win kickstarted its momentum. Even if Dog is Best Picture, CODA could still take this. On the other hand, I think there’s a better chance Best Pic and Adapted Screenplay match so I’m rolling with the Dog with no degree of confidence whatsoever.

PREDICTED WINNER:

The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up:

CODA

Best Animated Feature

Nominees:

Encanto

Flee

Luca

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Raya and the Last Dragon

Commentary:

I’m tempted to pick a Mitchells upset, but it’s dangerous to pick against Disney and Encanto is the frontrunner.

PREDICTED WINNER:

Encanto

Runner-Up:

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Best International Feature Film

Nominees:

Drive My Car

Flee

The Hand of God

Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

The Worst Person in the World

Commentary:

This is unquestionably one of the no brainer picks as Drive My Car has dominated the precursors and is the only nominee to also nab a Best Picture nod.

PREDICTED WINNER:

Drive My Car

Runner-Up:

The Worst Person in the World

Best Documentary Feature

Nominees:

Ascension

Attica

Flee

Summer of Soul

Writing with Fire

Commentary:

With nominations in Animated Feature, International Feature, and Doc – it sure seems like Flee should win one of them. It might stand the best chance in this competition, but Summer of Soul has been impressive in precursors and should continue the streak.

PREDICTED WINNER:

Summer of Soul

Runner-Up:

Flee

Best Cinematography

Nominees:

Dune

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

Commentary: 

This might be the tech race where Dog is successful. I’m not predicting it though and (get used to hearing this) think Dune emerges.

PREDICTED WINNER:

Dune

Runner-Up:

The Power of the Dog

Best Costume Design

Nominees:

Cruella

Cyrano

Dune

Nightmare Alley

West Side Story

Commentary:

Cruella has killed it the preceding competitions. Dune, if it crushes all techs, could take it but I’m going with the former.

PREDICTED WINNER:

Cruella

Runner-Up:

Dune

Best Film Editing

Nominees:

Don’t Look Up

Dune

King Richard

The Power of the Dog

tick, tick… Boom!

Commentary:

Don’t sleep on King Richard which was bestowed the EDDIE award. I still think this is Dune‘s to lose.

PREDICTED WINNER:

Dune

Runner-Up:

King Richard

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees:

Coming 2 America

Cruella

Dune

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

House of Gucci

Commentary:

Gucci could fashion a 1 for 1 victory but Tammy Faye has taken some precursors.

PREDICTED WINNER:

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Runner-Up:

House of Gucci

Best Original Score

Nominees:

Don’t Look Up

Dune

Encanto

Parallel Mothers

The Power of the Dog

Commentary:

Like Cinematography, this is between Dog and Dune. Like Cinematography, I’m choosing the latter.

PREDICTED WINNER:

Dune

Runner-Up:

The Power of the Dog

Best Original Song

Nominees:

“Be Alive” from King Richard

“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto

“Down to Joy” from Belfast

“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die

“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days

Commentary:

Diane Warren gets her 13th nomination with “Somehow” and somehow she’s never won. That will continue. The smart money is on the 007 theme song from Billie Eilish. Yet I’m going with a minor upset with the Disney tune.

PREDICTED WINNER:

“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto

Runner-Up:

“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die

Best Production Design

Nominees:

Dune

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

Commentary:

For the last three categories, I could just say Dune and be done with it. In fact, I think I will…

PREDICTED WINNER:

Dune

Runner-Up:

West Side Story

Best Sound

Nominees:

Belfast

Dune

No Time to Die

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Commentary:

See Production Design

PREDICTED WINNER:

Dune

Runner-Up:

West Side Story

Best Visual Effects

Nominees:

Dune

Free Guy

No Time to Die

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Spider-Man: No Way Home

Commentary:

See Production Design

PREDICTED WINNER:

Dune

Runner-Up:

There isn’t one… that’s how I’m confident I am that Dune takes it.

And so, ladies and gents, that means I’m predicting that these movies win these numbers of Oscars:

6 Wins

Dune

3 Wins

The Power of the Dog

2 Wins

Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

1 Win

Belfast, CODA, Cruella, Drive My Car, King Richard, Summer of Soul, West Side Story

Make sure to check out the blog post ceremony!

PGA: The Rise of CODA

When it comes to the Producers Guild of America awards, there’s a 14/21 match between their best picture and the Academy’s in the 21st century. The two-thirds ratio is 3/5 in the past five years. In 2016, La La Land took PGA over the Oscar selection of Moonlight. For 2019, PGA went with 1917 while the big show went with Parasite. Other 21st century examples: The Big Short won PGA in 2015 (Oscar: Spotlight). For 2006, Little Miss Sunshine got the PGA prize while The Departed took Oscar.

The PGA’s for 2021 occurred last night and it’s another feather in the cap for CODA. Sian Heder’s coming-of-age drama built upon its recent SAG ensemble victory  to triumph here. If there was any doubt before, CODA has unquestionably positioned itself as the alternate to The Power of the Dog winning Best Picture at the Oscars. Not Belfast. Not King Richard or Dune. This is a two-horse race between Dog and CODA and they both have important precursor hardware. No matter which one grabs the gold, it will be the first BP win for a streamer (Netflix for Dog and Apple TV for CODA).

Jane Campion’s direction of Dog won the Director Guild of America (DGA) prize this week and that’s a reliable Academy precursor. She’s almost certain to be the Oscar winner (CODA‘s Sian Heder isn’t nominated). In fact, CODA only has three nominations overall: Picture, Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur), and Adapted Screenplay. It didn’t seem feasible until recently, but it could legitimately go 3 for 3.

Having said that, I wouldn’t dream of counting Dog out. It’s the Globe and BAFTA recipient. The precursor bonafides for it are just as impressive as CODA‘s. Even a week ago, however, I would’ve said Dog had about a 90% chance to be the Oscar BP. Now… well, it’s considerably less and we’ll see what I predict when I make my final picks on Wednesday.

In the Animated Feature and Documentary races at PGA, the respective winners were Encanto and Summer of Soul and they maintain their status as Academy favorites.

Oscars 2021: The Case of Kodi Smit-McPhee

Kodi Smit-McPhee’s performance in Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog is the fifth and final Case Of post for the Supporting Actor contenders. If you missed the others, you can access them here:

Oscars 2021: The Case of Ciaran Hinds

Oscars 2021: The Case of Troy Kotsur

Oscars 2021: The Case of Jesse Plemons

Oscars 2021: The Case of J.K. Simmons

The Case for Kodi Smit-McPhee:

The 25-year-old Aussie picked up numerous critics prizes for his acclaimed role as well as the Golden Globe. Of the four actors nominated for Power (with Jesse Plemons in the same category), Smit-McPhee has received the most precursors and stands the best shot.

The Case Against Kodi Smit-McPhee:

Troy Kotsur. Simply put, the CODA costar has all the momentum after winning the SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA.

Previous Nominations: 

None

The Verdict:

Smit-McPhee is definitely the runner-up, but Kotsur is appearing much stronger after the double weekend wins at Critics Choice and BAFTA. Dog appears poised for major victories, but it’s looking less and less like this will be one of them.

And that concludes all 35 of my Case Of posts! It’s been fun. Stay tuned for my final Oscar winner predictions next week…

BAFTA and Critics Choice Awards Reaction

It was a frenzied Sunday for awards prognosticators as both the BAFTA and Critics Choice Awards aired. Both can be sturdy forecasters for what Oscar will do. This time around, I did better with the Brits than the stateside reviewers. For BAFTA, I went 15/22 (not bad). As for the Critics… oof. Just 10 for 21. Let’s take a look at both with some commentary below:

BAFTA

What I Got Right:

Film – The Power of the Dog

Director – Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Actress – Joanna Scanlan, After Love

Supporting Actress – Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Documentary – Summer of Soul

Film Not in the English Language – Drive My Car

Casting – West Side Story

Cinematography – Dune

Costume Design – Cruella

Makeup and Hair – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Original Score – Dune

Production Design – Dune

Sound – Dune

Special Visual Effects – Dune

Outstanding British Film  – Belfast

What I Got Wrong:

Actor – Will Smith, King Richard (Predicted: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog)

Supporting Actor – Troy Kotsur, CODA (Predicted: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog)

Original Screenplay – Licorice Pizza (Predicted: Belfast)

Adapted Screenplay – CODA (Predicted: The Power of the Dog)

Animated Feature – Encanto (Predicted: Flee)

Editing – No Time to Die (Predicted: Dune)

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer – The Harder They Fall (Predicted: Passing)

Critics Choice Awards

What I Got Right:

Picture – The Power of the Dog

Director – Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Actor – Will Smith, King Richard

Supporting Actress – Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Adapted Screenplay – The Power of the Dog

Foreign Language Film – Drive My Car

Cinematography – The Power of the Dog

Costume Design – Cruella

Score – Dune

Visual Effects – Dune

What I Got Wrong:

Actress – Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Predicted: Kristen Stewart, Spencer)

Supporting Actor – Troy Kotsur, CODA (Predicted: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog)

Original Screenplay – Belfast (Predicted: Licorice Pizza)

Animated Feature – The Mitchells vs. the Machines (Predicted: Encanto)

Comedy – Licorice Pizza (Predicted: The French Dispatch)

Young Actor/Actress – Jude Hill, Belfast (Predicted: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story)

Acting Ensemble – Belfast (Predicted: The Power of the Dog)

Editing  – West Side Story (Predicted: Dune)

Hair and Makeup – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Predicted: House of Gucci)

Production Design – Dune (Predicted: Nightmare Alley)

Song – “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (Predicted: “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up)

Commentary –

Let’s start with the acting races. I would venture to say now that those four categories all have strong frontrunners: Jessica Chastain and Will Smith in lead and Ariana DeBose and Troy Kotsur in supporting. Smith and DeBose, in particular, appear unbeatable while Chastain and Kotsur are easy odds-on favorites.

Dune should win plenty of the down the line competitions and appears bound to win the most Oscars overall.

The screenplay races are filled with genuine drama. CODA taking Adapted Screenplay over The Power of the Dog at the BAFTAs was a shocker, but it could be a sign of things to come from the Academy (though I wouldn’t wager money on that). Original Screenplay is absolutely a two-horse race between Belfast and Licorice Pizza. 

Drive My Car is going to take International Feature Film. Simple as that. Summer of Soul looks to be in solid shape for Doc. And even though The Mitchells vs. the Machines managed to take the critics prize, Disney’s Encanto is probably still out front for the Oscar.

In other down the line derbies, the double victories in Makeup and Hairstyling for The Eyes of Tammy Faye and Cruella in Costume Design make them favorites.

And despite The Power of the Dog not picking up some trophies at both ceremonies, it did so with Picture and Director at both. And it should do so on Oscar night.

That’s all for now! Next week (probably on Wednesday), look for my FINAL Oscar winner predictions!

Oscars 2021: The Case of Aunjanue Ellis

Aunjanue Ellis’s performance as the supportive and strong willed matriarch of a tennis dynasty in King Richard is my final Case Of post for the Supporting Actress hopefuls. The other four can be accessed here:

Oscars 2021: The Case of Jessie Buckley

Oscars 2021: The Case of Ariana DeBose

Oscars 2021: The Case of Judi Dench

Oscars 2021: The Case of Kirsten Dunst

The Case for Aunjanue Ellis:

Known most for her TV work prior to this, Ellis stole a scene or two from Best Actor frontrunner Will Smith and critics noticed. So did BAFTA, Globe, and Critics Choice, where she also scored nods.

The Case Against Aunjanue Ellis:

She didn’t run the table as SAG omitted her. Ellis also lost the Globe to Ariana DeBose for West Side Story (who also took SAG) and she’s considered perhaps the sturdiest favorite of all the four acting competitions.

Previous Nominations:

None

The Verdict:

The awards love for King Richard is likely to be served up to Smith and not Ellis.

My Case Of posts will conclude with the final Supporting Actor contender – Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog

2021 BAFTA Awards WINNERS Predictions

As if Sunday’s Critics Choice Awards weren’t enough, the British Academy Film Awards air the same day. The BAFTAs, as of late, have been a rather reliable predictor for Oscar races (especially the acting derbies). Last year, the BAFTA/Oscar matched in all 4 thespian derbies and that included the surprise Anthony Hopkins (The Father) victory over Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. 

That can’t occur this time around because none of the Best Actress contenders at BAFTA are nominated for the Academy Award (go figure!). As I have with other ceremonies, I’m giving you my winner pick with a runner-up. On Monday, expect recaps for Critics Choice and this show!

Best Film

Nominees:

Belfast

Don’t Look Up

Dune

Licorice Pizza

The Power of the Dog

Predicted Winner: The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up: Belfast

Best Director

Nominees:

Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Audrey Diwan, Happening

Julia Ducournau, Titane

Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

Aleem Khan, After Love

Predicted Winner: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up: Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees:

Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

Emilia Jones, CODA

Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World

Joanna Scanlan, After Love

Tessa Thompson, Passing

Predicted Winner: Joanna Scanlan, After Love

Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees:

Adeel Akhtar, Ali & Ava

Mahershala Ali, Swan Song

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up

Stephen Graham, Boiling Point

Will Smith, King Richard

Predicted Winner: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up: Will Smith, King Richard

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Ann Dowd, Mass

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

Ruth Negga, Passing

Predicted Winner: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Runner-Up: Ruth Negga, Passing

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

Mike Faist, West Side Story

Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Woody Norman, C’Mon C’Mon

Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Predicted Winner: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up: Troy Kotsur, CODA

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees:

Being the Ricardos

Belfast

Don’t Look Up

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Predicted Winner: Belfast

Runner-Up: Licorice Pizza

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees:

CODA

Drive My Car

Dune

The Lost Daughter

The Power of the Dog

Predicted Winner: The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up: The Lost Daughter

Best Animated Film

Nominees:

Encanto

Flee

Luca

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Predicted Winner: Flee

Runner-Up: Encanto

Best Documentary 

Nominees:

Becoming Cousteau

Cow

Flee

The Rescue

Summer of Soul

Predicted Winner: Summer of Soul

Runner-Up: Flee

Best Film Not in the English Language

Nominees:

Drive My Car

The Hand of God

Parallel Mothers

Petite Maman

The Worst Person in the World

Predicted Winner: Drive My Car

Runner-Up: The Worst Person in the World

Best Casting

Nominees:

Boiling Point

Dune

The Hand of God

King Richard

West Side Story

Predicted Winner: West Side Story

Runner-Up: Dune

Best Cinematography

Nominees:

Dune

Nightmare Alley

No Time to Die

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Predicted Winner: Dune

Runner-Up: The Power of the Dog

Best Costume Design

Nominees:

Cruella

Cyrano

Dune

The French Dispatch

Nightmare Alley

Predicted Winner: Cruella

Runner-Up: Dune

Best Editing

Nominees:

Belfast

Dune

Licorice Pizza

No Time to Die

Summer of Soul

Predicted Winner: Dune

Runner-Up: No Time to Die

Best Makeup and Hair

Nominees:

Cruella

Cyrano

Dune

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

House of Gucci

Predicted Winner: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Runner-Up: House of Gucci

Best Original Score

Nominees:

Being the Ricardos

Don’t Look Up

Dune

The French Dispatch

The Power of the Dog

Predicted Winner: Dune

Runner-Up: The Power of the Dog

Best Production Design

Nominees:

Cyrano

Dune

The French Dispatch

Nightmare Alley

West Side Story

Predicted Winner: Dune

Runner-Up: Nightmare Alley

Best Sound

Nominees:

Dune

Last Night in Soho

No Time to Die

A Quiet Place Part II

West Side Story

Predicted Winner: Dune

Runner-Up: No Tme to Die

Best Special Visual Effects

Nominees:

Dune

Free Guy

Ghostbusters: Afterlife 

The Matrix Resurrections

No Time to Die

Predicted Winner: Dune

Runner-Up: No Time to Die

Outstanding British Film

Nominees:

After Love

Ali & Ava

Belfast

Boiling Point

Cyrano

Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

House of Gucci

Last Night in Soho

No Time to Die

Passing

Predicted Winner: Belfast

Runner-Up: After Love

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer

Nominees:

After Love

Boiling Point

The Harder They Fall

Keyboard Fantasies

Passing

Predicted Winner: Passing

Runner-Up: After Love

My predictions mean the following movies get these numbers of wins:

6 Wins

Dune

5 Wins

The Power of the Dog

2 Wins

Belfast, West Side Story

1 Win

After Love, Cruella, Drive My Car, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Flee, Passing, Summer of Soul

Oscars 2021: The Case of Kristen Stewart

Kristen Stewart’s role as Princess Diana in Spencer is the fifth and final Case Of post for the Best Actress contenders. The first four can be accessed here:

Oscars 2021: The Case of Jessica Chastain

Oscars 2021: The Case of Olivia Colman

Oscars 2021: The Case of Penelope Cruz

Oscars 2021: The Case of Nicole Kidman

The Case for Kristen Stewart:

Awards attention for the Twilight star has been building for some time. After acclaimed performances in indie fare like Clouds of Sils Maria, Certain Women, and Personal Shopper, this high-profile role has been considered a potential frontrunner performance since it debuted at the Venice Film Festival.

The Case Against Kristen Stewart:

That frontrunner status hit massive speed bumps. While Stewart nabbed Golden Globe and Critics Choice nods, she was snubbed at SAG and BAFTA. She lost the Globe to Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) and SAG went to Jessica Chastain. She’s yet to take a significant precursor (a Critics Choice Award this weekend could help). Furthermore, Spencer drew mixed reaction from critics and audiences and Stewart holds the sole Oscar nod for it.

Previous Nominations:

None

The Verdict:

It’s a guessing game in Best Actress. Despite Stewart’s setbacks, she’s still in the running in this wide open derby. Her exclusion in SAG could even cause Academy voters to grant her retribution. That said, she’s probably behind Chastain and Kidman at the moment.

My Case Of posts will continue with our last Best Actor player – Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth

Oscars 2021: The Case of Will Smith

My fourth Case Of post for the Best Actor competitors is Will Smith in King Richard. If you missed the previous entries, they can be found here:

Oscars 2021: The Case of Javier Bardem

Oscars 2021: The Case of Benedict Cumberbatch

Oscars 2021: The Case of Andrew Garfield

The Case for Will Smith:

As the doggedly determined father of eventual tennis royalty Venus and Serena Williams, Smith has held frontrunner status for months. He lost his first two bids in 2001 and 2006 for Ali and The Pursuit of Happyness, respectively. As one of the most bankable stars of the past quarter century, Hollywood could certainly feel like it’s time to honor him. The Golden Globe and SAG voters moved in the that direction as he took both awards for his work. Richard also over performed at the Oscars with six nominations.

The Case Against Will Smith:

There’s not much of one except there’s been upsets previously in this race. That includes last year when Anthony Hopkins (The Father) took the statue over the favored Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Playing the role of spoiler could be Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog, which dominated overall nods at 12. If Cumberbatch wins the Critics Choice award or BAFTA, look for plenty of chatter on the tightness of this competition.

Previous Nominations: 2

Ali (2001 – Actor); The Pursuit of Happyness (2006 – Actor)

The Verdict:

Look for Smith to be crowned the victor, but there’s a nagging feeling that Cumberbatch could surprise.

My Case Of posts will continue with Kirsten Dunst’s Supporting Actress bid for The Power of the Dog

Oscars 2021: The Case of Jesse Plemons

My Case Of posts arrive at the third Supporting Actor contender and it’s Jesse Plemons in The Power of the Dog. The first two write-ups can be found here:

Oscars 2021: The Case of Ciaran Hinds

Oscars 2021: The Case of Troy Kotsur

The Case for Jesse Plemons:

Having appeared in acclaimed TV and cinematic works including Breaking Bad and Fargo on the small screen and The Master, The Irishman, and Judas and the Black Messiah on the big one, Plemons scores his first Academy nod. Dog led all nominees with 13 and that includes Kirsten Dunst (the actor’s real life love interest).

The Case Against Jesse Plemons:

It also includes his costar Kodi Smit-McPhee, who’s nominated in the same category and won the Golden Globe. Despite a BAFTA mention, Plemons didn’t make the SAG, Globe, or Critics Choice shortlists. Smit-McPhee and Troy Kotsur (CODA) are looked at as the potential victors. Woody Harrelson in 2017 lost to his costar Sam Rockwell in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri as did Lakeith Stranfield last year to Daniel Kaluuya for the aforementioned Judas. Plemons could play that role this time around.

Previous Nominations: 

None

The Verdict:

Plemons might be back again next year with Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon. Don’t look for an Oscar delivery here.

My Case Of posts will continue with Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s direction of Drive My Car