Tag: Atomic Blonde

The Fall Guy Box Office Prediction

For decades in Hollywood, the first weekend of May (or occasionally last frame of April) has served as the official start of cinematic summer. Ryan Gosling’s character in The Fall Guy might have worked on some of those kickoff projects as his stuntman title character gets top billing here. Emily Blunt co-headlines the action comedy from director David Leitch (Atomic Blonde, Deadpool 2, Bullet Train). Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Winston Duke, Hannah Waddingham, and Stephanie Hsu provide supporting work.

This Universal project (loosely based on the 1980s TV show) finds the studio in an unfamiliar position. The summer season has begun in many recent years with a Disney/MCU blockbuster getting the financial ball rolling (last year it was Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3).

Obviously The Fall Guy won’t reach MCU figures, but it has a lot going for it. Gosling is hot off Barbie and a recent SNL hosting stint that generated lots of buzz. Blunt is coming off reigning BP winner Oppenheimer. The Barbenheimer duo’s teaming initially debuted at South by Southwest to loud buzz and solid reviews (the RT score is 90%).

I do believe a $50 million opening is achievable but unlikely. Low 40s to mid 40s is also reasonable while mid to high 30s might be where it lands. Regardless I think this will leg out impressively throughout May.

The Fall Guy opening weekend prediction: $38.3 million

For my Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace re-release prediction, click here:

Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace Re-Release Box Office Prediction

For my Tarot prediction, click here:

Tarot Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: The Fall Guy

Ryan Gosling (fresh off his third Oscar nom for Barbie) and Emily Blunt (just up for her first with Oppenheimer) lead the cast of The Fall Guy, slated for May 3rd. We are a month and a half away from that release, but it had a splashy debut at South by Southwest and the buzz is substantial. David Leitch (the man behind John Wick, Atomic Blonde, Deadpool 2, and Bullet Train) directs with a supporting cast including Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Winston Duke, Stephanie Hsu, and Hannah Waddingham.

Based on the 1980s action TV series starring Lee Majors, Gosling plays a stunt man once again after portraying the same profession in The Place Beyond the Pines and Drive. Critics are calling it a lovingly crafted and quite funny and romantic homage to the cinematic workers who put themselves in danger for our entertainment. It stands at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes.

While we wait for the Academy to develop a category honoring stunt performers (like SAG does), The Fall Guy‘s best and perhaps only hope at recognition is in tech races like Sound (feasible) and Visual Effects (maybe more of a reach). Assuming Universal campaigns for it in Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes, its luck could be better with potential nods in Film, Actor, and Actress. And, yes, its chances for inclusion in the SAG Stunt Ensemble race seems like a no brainer. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Bullet Train Box Office Prediction

Sony Pictures is hoping moviegoers catch the Bullet Train when it debuts August 5th. The action comedy comes from John Wick maker David Leitch with Brad Pitt headlining as an assassin. The supporting cast includes Joey King, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Brian Tyree Henry, Andrew Koji, Hiroyuki Sanada, Michael Shannon, Zazie Beetz, Logan Lerman, Bad Bunny, and Pitt’s recent The Lost City costar Sandra Bullock (in a role first slated for Lady Gaga).

The Japan set stunt fest is hoping to turn out an adult audience ready for original programming in a summer filled mostly with plenty of sequels and superheroes.

Since starting a franchise with Wick in 2014, Leitch followed up with Atomic Blonde. It was a box office disappointment that debuted with just over $18 million. Train should have no trouble getting past that number. However, it won’t reach the earnings of his last two pictures which were built-in franchise entries: Deadpool 2 and Fast and Furious spin-off Hobbs & Shaw. 

Nope was able to reach mid 40s and it had the advantage of Jordan Peele’s brand. This will rely mostly on Pitt’s star power. I’m curious to see how word-of-mouth is in the coming days and that could increase or decrease my projection. My hunch is that mid 2os is the floor and low 40s could be the ceiling. I wouldn’t be surprised if it comes toward the lower end of that spectrum, and I’ll say high 20s to low 30s is where this lands.

Bullet Train opening weekend prediction: $29.7 million

For my Easter Sunday prediction, click here:

Easter Sunday Box Office Prediction

Hobbs & Shaw Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (07/31): My estimate has dropped from $82.6 million to $72.6 million

Two of the most popular characters from the venerable Fast and Furious franchise get their  own spin-off (the first of the long running series) with Hobbs & Shaw next weekend. The action extravaganza comes with a reported $200 million budget and is headlined by the title characters respectively portrayed by Dwayne Johnson and Jason Statham. David Leitch (co-director of John Wick and sole director of Atomic Blonde and Deadpool 2) is behind the camera. Costars include Idris Elba, Vanessa Kirby, and Helen Mirren (reprising her maternal role from 2017’s last entry The Fate of the Furious).

Despite the absence of Vin Diesel and other actors associated with the franchise that started 18 years ago, Hobbs & Shaw is likely to perform similarly to other pics in the canon. The largest opening was accomplished in 2015 with Furious 7 with a gross of $147 million. Tragically, part of the reason its start was significantly more than the others was due to the untimely death of Paul Walker and that picture representing his swan song. Follow-up Fate of the Furious two years later landed the second highest start of the eight features at $98 million.

This might fall a bit under those gaudy numbers and I think low to mid 80s is most feasible. That would put it in line or a just bit below the $86 million accomplished by Fast Five in 2011.

Hobbs & Shaw opening weekend prediction: $72.6 million

Red Sparrow Movie Review

Jennifer Lawrence teams up with her Hunger Games director Francis Lawrence once again with Red Sparrow. This spy thriller could rightfully be called The Somber Games. To put it in Red Bull terms, there are times when Sparrow could use some wings.

While Lawrence gives a solid performance, the film never quite strikes a satisfying balance between wanting to be a little trashy and wanting to take itself as stone faced seriously as every character who inhabits it.

Here we have Jenny from the Red Block – with the star playing Dominika. She’s a well-known Russian ballerina whose career is cut short in a freak injury. Unable to care for her ill mother (Joely Richardson) or make ends meet, her high-ranking government official uncle (Matthias Schoenaerts) offers her an ultimatum. Dominika is to become an employee of the Foreign Intelligence Service and extract information from suspects by any means possible.

This brings her to an intensive training course called State School 4 or as she later coins it – Whore School. It’s an apt description as most of the methods taught by its headmaster (Charlotte Rampling) involve seduction. Her training soon puts her in close contact with CIA agent Nash (Joel Edgerton) as he knows the true identity of a Russian mole.

Based on a 2013 novel by Jason Matthews, Red Sparrow follows the spy flick playbook of frequent double crosses and surprising character reveals. Unlike some recent entries in the well-worn genre, it’s bursts of violence are hardcore and it’s filled with sex. Dominika is tasked with always staying a step ahead of her mostly male coworkers and marks. That almost always involves their uncontrolled libido.

Director Lawrence and Jennifer Lawrence deserve some credit for making this pretty interesting for the first hour or so. The pic is not short on style and watching Dominika first adapt to her new reality has some entertaining and unexpected pleasures at first.

After a while, however, Red Sparrow struggles as it devolves into more familiar torture scenes and unsurprising “surprises”. Unlike Atomic Blonde with Charlize Theron (a much better genre experience), there’s hardly any sense of fun here. The Lawrence’s seem convinced that the dour happenings are enough to sustain a 140 running time. Not quite.

**1/2 (out of four)

Deadpool 2 Box Office Prediction

The nation’s favorite R rated superhero is back in theaters next weekend when Deadpool 2 debuts. Arriving two years plus after the original became a massive hit, Ryan Reynolds returns in the title role with David Leitch (director of Atomic Blonde) taking over the behind the camera duties from Tim Miller. Costars include Monica Baccarin, Julian Dennison, Zazie Beetz, T.J. Miller, Brianna Hildebrand, Leslie Uggams, and the summer’s comic book villain of choice, Josh Brolin as Cable (coming off his acclaimed work as Thanos in Avengers: Infinity War).

In February of 2016, Deadpool took in an astonishing $132 million and grossed $363 million overall domestically. That still stands as the largest R rated debut of all time and it sits only behind The Passion of the Christ for all-time earners with that rating. There is a legitimate possibility that part two manages to exceed that opening weekend haul.

I’ll project that Deadpool 2 manages to just do that with a debut approaching $140 million.

Deadpool 2 opening weekend prediction: $137.4 million

For my Book Club prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/09/book-club-box-office-prediction/

For my Show Dogs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/10/show-dogs-box-office-prediction/

For my Pope Francis: A Man of His Word prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/13/pope-francis-a-man-of-his-word-box-office-prediction/

Tully Box Office Prediction

A brave airline pilot executes a miraculous landing on the Hudson River…

Ok, wrong movie as Jason Reitman’s Tully is delivered to theaters next weekend. The comedic drama stars Charlize Theron as a frazzled mom who gets some help from a kindly sitter played by Mackenzie Davis. Ron Livingston costars.

Tully debuted at the Sundance Film Festival to strong critical notices and it sits at 93% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. The film reunites Theron with her Young Adult director and screenwriter Diablo Cody, who also scripted Reitman’s Oscar nominated Juno. It’s a break from the action for Theron after pics including Mad Max: Fury Road, The Fate of the Furious, and Atomic Blonde.

Scheduled to debut on a rather low 1200 screens, Tully may open to a fairly smallish gross with hopes of legging out well in future weekends.

Tully opening weekend prediction: $5 million

For my Overboard prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/24/overboard-box-office-prediction/

For my Bad Samaritan prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/28/bad-samaritan-box-office-prediction/

Red Sparrow Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (02/28): I am revising my Red Sparrow down from $19.5 million to $17.5 million

Red Sparrow, out next Friday, reunites Jennifer Lawrence with her director for the last three Hunger Games installments Francis Lawrence. The spy thriller casts the star as a Russian spy with a supporting cast that includes Joel Edgerton, Matthew Schoenaerts, Charlotte Rampling, Jeremy Irons, and Mary-Louise Parker.

The 20th Century Fox release was originally scheduled for November of last year before the March push back. Reviews have been a bit mixed as it stands at 63% on Rotten Tomatoes at press time.

Lawrence has certainly had her share of massive hits. She’s also had some under performers as of late, including Passengers and mother! Competition is a factor here. Black Panther should still be ruling the charts and Death Wish with Bruce Willis opens directly against it and will try to capture the attention of actions fans.

I could see Red Sparrow performing similarly to another recent female led spy flick, last summer’s Atomic Blonde with Charlize Theron. It opened to $18.2 million. I’ll put this just a touch higher due to Lawrence’s drawing power, but still under $20 million.

Red Sparrow opening weekend prediction: $17.5 million

For my Death Wish prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/02/21/death-wish-box-office-prediction/

Atomic Blonde Movie Review

Atomic Blonde is set in 1989 and that feels appropriate because it’s a gleefully rated R entry in an action genre that cranked out a lot more of those 30 years ago. It’s unapologetically violent, sexy, and stylish with a pulsating late 80s soundtrack booming all throughout (almost all throughout). It’s additionally uneven at times and confusing, but I didn’t care much because the good outweighs the bad and the bad people look good doing their thing.

David Leitch co-directed John Wick and we see those kind of kinetic fight scenes represented here as well. Charlize Theron is Lorraine, an MI6 agent dispatched to Berlin just days before the collapse of the Wall. While the Cold War is drawing to a close, she’s given the mission of retrieving a McGuffin (a wristwatch in this case) that hides the identities of secret agents.  She’s also teamed up with Percival (James McAvoy), an outlandish fellow agent who may or may not be on her side. Lorraine also gets friendly (very friendly) with Sofia Boutella’s French agent and the scenes between them aren’t something normally found in summer shoot-em-up material.

The story is told in flashback (not exactly an original touch) as Lorraine recounts her sordid Berlin experience to a CIA man (John Goodman) and other government big wigs. The villains change seemingly minute to minute. It’s a screenplay that never tires of double, triple, and quadruple crosses. Trying to piece it altogether at its conclusion may not be worth your time.

That said, certain sequences and the general cool vibe make it worth your while. It also doesn’t hurt to hear George Michael, A Flock of Seagulls and others singing along during the battle ballets. They’re a trip, but the most effective fight scene is a gloriously choreographed number with no music. It might be the finest action set piece using that distinction since Heat.

Theron has proven herself in several genres, but she sure seems comfortable in this one. McAvoy is having a blast as well. Atomic Blonde is shameless in a way that R rated action pics should be when they’re done well enough. And that alone sets it apart in the summer season.

*** (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: August 4-6

Blogger’s Note (08/03): On eve of debut, revising Dark Tower down significantly

The month of August begins at the box office with three new releases hitting multiplexes: the long in the works Stephen King adaptation The Dark Tower with Idris Elba and Matthew McConaughey, Kathryn Bigelow’s 1960s set racial drama Detroit, and Halle Berry’s oft delayed thriller Kidnap. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/26/the-dark-tower-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/26/detroit-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/26/kidnap-box-office-prediction/

Over the past week, I have considerably revised my Dark Tower estimate down from a mid 30s debut to now mid 20s. That should be enough to get it to #1, however.

Detroit is garnering highly positive reviews and could certainly over perform, but I’ve got it pegged in the low double digits with a likelihood it plays well through the month. That might be good for anywhere between third and fifth – depending on holdover activity for Emoji Movie and Girls Trip. 

Kidnap could surprise (no one thought Berry’s The Call would do the business it did), but I’m not projecting much for it. My $6.8M estimate puts it outside the top five.

As for holdovers, Dunkirk should slide to second after two weeks on top. Animated movies typically suffer smallish drops in their sophomore weekend, but The Emoji Movie could be an exception to the rule after its dismal reviews and so-so B Cinemascore grade. Girls Trip should continue to impress in week #3.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend ahead:

1. The Dark Tower

Predicted Gross: $18.4 million

2. Dunkirk

Predicted Gross: $15.5 million (representing a drop of 42%)

3. Girls Trip 

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. Detroit

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million

5. The Emoji Movie

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)

 

Box Office Results (July 28-30)

Christopher Nolan’s acclaimed Dunkirk was the first pic since Wonder Woman to stay atop the charts for two weeks in a row as it grossed $26.6 million (under my $32.8M projection) for a two-week total of $101 million.

The Emoji Movie settled for second place with $24.5 million, a bit below my $28.4M forecast. As mentioned, poor reviews and word-of-mouth could keep this from performing well in subsequent weekends.

Girls Trip continued its fantastic run as the comedy of the summer with $19.6 million compared to my $17.3M estimate. Its earned $65 million thus far with the century mark firmly in its sights.

Charlize Theron’s spy thriller Atomic Blonde did rather underwhelming business with $18.2 million, on target with my $18.6M prediction. Mostly solid reviews couldn’t keep this from a mediocre start.

Spider-Man: Homecoming rounded out the top five with $13.2 million (I said $12M) for a $278M overall tally.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…