2019 Oscar Predictions: January 6th Edition

There are years when the Golden Globes don’t seem to have much of an impact on my Oscar predictions. That could still hold true at the end of the day, but last night’s ceremony did so and that especially applies to the Best Actor derby and my numeric rankings in general with other top races. Let us count the ways…

  • The surprising wins for 1917 as Best Drama and Sam Mendes as its director is a real story. The timing could not be more perfect as the World War I action drama opens wide this weekend. In Picture, it rises from 5th to 4th. For Mendes, he goes from 4th to 3rd and that’s at the expense of Martin Scorsese.
  • Joaquin Phoenix hits the #1 slot in the ultra competitive Best Actor competition over Adam Driver, who’s been first for many weeks. Perhaps more significantly, Taron Egerton’s victory over Leonardo DiCaprio and Eddie Murphy in the Musical/Comedy race at the Globes places in my predicted five for the first time (he goes from 10th to 5th!). I’ve also put Antonio Banderas back in and that means Robert De Niro and Jonathan Pryce are on the outside looking in.
  • In Original Screenplay, Quentin Tarantino vaults to #1 over Noah Baumbach.

And an important programming note… this is the last time you will see my weekly predictions for 2019 in this manner. With nominations out a week from today, I will have a FINAL predictions post up this weekend (likely Friday or perhaps Saturday). As of this moment, here’s how I have it all shaking out!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Parasite (PR: 3)

3. The Irishman (PR: 2)

4. 1917 (PR: 5)

5. Marriage Story (PR: 4)

6. Joker (PR: 7)

7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)

8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)

9. Little Women (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. The Farewell (PR: 12)

11. Bombshell (PR: 11)

12. The Two Popes (PR: 10)

13. Knives Out (PR: 14)

14. Uncut Gems (PR: 15)

15. Pain and Glory (PR: 13)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 1)

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)

4. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 3)

5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 6)

7. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 9)

8. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)

10. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)

2. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)

4. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)

5. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

6. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 4)

7. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 5)

8. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

9. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 9)

10. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)

2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)

3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)

4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 4)

5. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)

7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)

8. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: 10)

9. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)

10. Ana de Armas, Knives Out (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 3)

4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)

5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 7)

7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 6)

8. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 8)

9. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (PR: 10)

10. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)

3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)

4. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 4)

5. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 6)

7. Shuzhen Zhao, The Farewell (PR: 7)

8. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 8)

9. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: 9)

10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)

3. Little Women (PR: 3)

4. Joker (PR: 5)

5. The Two Popes (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)

7. Hustlers (PR: 7)

8. Just Mercy (PR: 8)

9. Dark Waters (PR: 10)

10. Richard Jewell (PR: 9)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

2. Marriage Story (PR: 1)

3. Parasite (PR: 3)

4. The Farewell (PR: 4)

5. Knives Out (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. 1917 (PR: 7)

7. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Pain and Glory (PR: 6)

9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)

10. Bombshell (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Dolemite Is My Name

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Parasite (PR: 1)

2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)

3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)

4. Corpus Christi (PR: 6)

5. Atlantics (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beanpole (PR: 7)

7. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)

8. The Painted Bird (PR: 5)

9. Honeyland (PR: 8)

10. Truth and Justice (PR: 10)

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)

2. Frozen II (PR: 2)

3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)

4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)

5. Missing Link (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Funan (PR: 9)

7. Klaus (PR: 6)

8. Weathering with You (PR: 8)

9. Abominable (PR: 7)

10. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 10)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. American Factory (PR: 1)

2. For Sama (PR: 3)

3. Apollo 11 (PR: 2)

4. One Child Nation (PR: 4)

5. Honeyland (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Cave (PR: 6)

7. Midnight Family (PR: 9)

8. Maiden (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 7)

10. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Knock Down the House 

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. Joker (PR: 4)

4. The Irishman (PR: 3)

5. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

7. The Lighthouse (PR: 6)

8. Parasite (PR: 5)

9. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Marriage Story (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

A Hidden Life 

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Little Women (PR: 2)

3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)

4. Rocketman (PR: 4)

5. Downton Abbey (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Irishman (PR: 7)

7. Joker (PR: 8)

8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)

9. Judy (PR: 6)

10. The Aeronauts (PR: 10)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)

2. The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)

4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)

5. Parasite (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker (PR: 6)

7. 1917 (PR: 7)

8. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)

10. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bombshell

Apollo 11

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bombshell (PR: 1)

2. Judy (PR: 3)

3. Joker (PR: 2)

4. Rocketman (PR: 5)

5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: 7)

7. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 6)

8. 1917 (PR: 10)

9. Little Women (PR: 8)

10. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 1)

2. Joker (PR: 2)

3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)

4. Little Women (PR: 3)

5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)

7. Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 7)

8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)

9. The King (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Pain and Glory

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)

2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)

3. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: 4)

4. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)

5. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. “A Glass of Soju” from Parasite (PR: 7)

7. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 6)

8. “Letter to My Godfather” from The Black Godfather (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough (PR: 9)

10. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

“Speechless” from Aladdin 

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Little Women (PR: 3)

4. 1917 (PR: 5)

5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parasite (PR: 4)

7. Joker (PR: 6)

8. The Two Popes (PR: 10)

9. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)

10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ford v Ferrari 

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 1)

2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)

4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)

5. Ad Astra (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rocketman (PR: 5)

7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)

8. Joker (PR: 7)

9. The Irishman (PR: 9)

10. Us (PR: 10)

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 1)

2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)

3. Rocketman (PR: 4)

4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 6)

5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)

7. Ad Astra (PR: 7)

8. Joker (PR: 8)

9. The Irishman (PR: 9)

10. Us (PR: 10)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Lion King (PR: 1)

2. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 2)

3. The Irishman (PR: 4)

4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)

5. 1917 (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gemini Man (PR: 7)

7. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 6)

8. Terminator: Dark Fate (PR: 8)

9. Captain Marvel (PR: 9)

10. Cats (PR: 10)

And that equates to these pictures garnering the following numbers for nominations:

10 Nominations

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

9 Nominations

The Irishman

8 Nominations

1917, Marriage Story

7 Nominations

Little Women

6 Nominations

Joker

5 Nominations

Parasite, Rocketman 

4 Nominations

Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

3 Nominations

Avengers: Endgame, Bombshell

2 Nominations

Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lion King, Pain and Glory, The Two Popes

1 Nomination

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Corpus Christi, Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, For Sama, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Knives Out, Les Miserables, Missing Link, One Child Nation, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Toy Story 4, Wild Rose

Will The Indie Spirits Nominees Showcase Oscar Gems?

This afternoon, the nominations for the 35th Independent Spirit Awards were released as we prepare for the onslaught of Oscar precursors to follow. And make no mistake – the Indie Spirits are indeed a precursor. In this decade from 2010-2018, five of the nine Best Feature winners emerged victorious with the Academy for Best Picture: 2011’s The Artist, 2013’s 12 Years a Slave, 2014’s Birdman, 2015’s Spotlight, and 2016’s Moonlight. Some of these years have three or four of the five nominees get Oscar nods in the big race.

However, 2018 marked the first year of this decade when none of the five nominated pictures at the Indies garnered any Academy love. I don’t expect that to occur for a second year in a row.

In this post, I’ll break down Feature, Director, and the four acting races and what it might mean for Oscar:

Best Feature

Nominees: A Hidden Life, Clemency, The Farewell, Marriage Story, Uncut Gems

First things first: Marriage Story is going to get a Best Picture nomination and probably wins here. And it might be the only one here that does. The Farewell has a decent shot and Uncut Gems is a potential sleeper (though I wouldn’t bet on it).

That said, Gems did tie The Lighthouse for most Indie mentions (5). And that brings us back to Marriage Story. The voters here chose to give it a special Robert Altman award honoring the team behind it. That includes cast members Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, Laura Dern, and Alan Alda. They all probably would’ve heard their names here had that not occurred and same goes for director Noah Baumbach. If that seems like a bit of a cheat (taking out probable winners like Driver and Baumbach), I wouldn’t argue. The silver lining is that it does make some of these categories more interesting.

Best Director

Nominees: Robert Eggers (The Lighthouse), Alma Hor’el (Honey Boy), Julius Onah (Luce), Ben and Josh Safdie (Uncut Gems), Lorene Scafaria (Hustlers)

Like Best Feature, 2018 saw no directors recognized get Academy attention. With Baumbach getting his Altman award and out of the running, that could certainly happen again as I don’t even have any of these directors in my top ten Oscar possibilities. Perhaps this could help spur chatter for the Safdies or Scafaria. Again… I wouldn’t bet on it.

Best Female Lead

Nominees: Karen Allen (Colewell), Hong Chau (Driveways), Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell), Mary Kay Place (Diane), Alfre Woodard (Clemency), Renee Zellweger (Judy)

Six out of nine winners here from 2010-2018 went onto win the Best Actress statue: Natalie Portman (Black Swan), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine), Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Brie Larson (Room), and Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri).

Even with Johansson not included, it could be 7/10 as Zellweger is my current Oscar front runner. Woodard and Moss stand shots at nods. The other three need not shop for red carpet dresses.

One noticeable omission is Awkwafina in The Farewell, who many are predicting for Oscar attention. I currently had her on the outside looking in at sixth. That could slide when I update my estimates on Monday.

Best Male Lead

Nominees: Chris Galust (Give Me Liberty), Kelvin Harrison, Jr. (Luce), Robert Pattinson (The Lighthouse), Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems), Matthias Schoenarts (The Mustang)

Jean Dujardin (The Artist), Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club), and Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) are the three Indie/Oscar recipients. Only in 2015 and (yes) 2018 did no nominees get Oscar nods…

I expect that to occur again. I believe only Sandler stands a chance, but it’s a reach based on severe competition.

Best Supporting Female

Nominees: Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), Taylor Russell (Waves), Lauren Spencer (Give Me Liberty), Octavia Spencer (Luce), Shuzhen Zhou (The Farewell)

Four winners here have picked up Academy trophies – Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave), Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), and the past two winners Allison Janney (I, Tonya) and Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk).

With soft front runner Laura Dern in the Marriage Story special category thing, we could still see a third year in a row match with Lopez. Zhou and Spencer (to a lesser degree) may also find themselves in the Oscar mix.

And with Taylor Russell’s nod here, it’s a good time to mention that Waves really came up short with the Indies today. That doesn’t help its Oscar viability.

Best Supporting Male

Nominees: Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse), Noah Jupe (Honey Boy), Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy), Jonathan Majors (The Last Black Man in San Francisco), Wendell Pierce (Burning Cane)

This category is another ultra crowded one for Oscar attention, but Dafoe and LaBeouf are legit contenders for nods. Not so with the other three. The omission of Sterling K. Brown in Waves is a surprise.

There have been four Indie/Oscar victors this decade: Christopher Plummer (Beginners), Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club), J.K. Simmons (Whiplash), and Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri). With Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) and Al Pacino (The Irishman) as likely favorites for the Academy, I wouldn’t expect a fifth match.

And there you have it, folks! My take on the Indies and which Oscar gems they could produce…

2019 Oscar Predictions: November 11th Edition

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 2)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

3. Parasite (PR: 4)

4. Marriage Story (PR: 3)

5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)

6. Little Women (PR: 7)

7. 1917 (PR: 5)

8. The Two Popes (PR: 8)

9. Bombshell (PR: 9)

10. Joker (PR: 11)

Other Possibilities:

11. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)

12. The Farewell (PR: 13)

13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 12)

14. Rocketman (PR: 14)

15. Waves (PR: 15)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)

3. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

4. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)

5. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)

7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

8. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)

9. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 8)

10. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Todd Phillips, Joker

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)

3. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 6)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)

5. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 8)

7. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 5)

8. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)

9. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)

10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)

2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 3)

3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 2)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)

5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)

7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)

8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 7)

9. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 9)

10. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Helen Mirren, The Good Liar

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)

3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)

4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)

5. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 6)

7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

8. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 9)

9. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 10)

10. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 8)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)

4. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 5)

5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 8)

7. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 6)

8. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: Not Rankled)

9. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 7)

10. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

John Lithgow, Bombshell

Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Marriage Story (PR: 2)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

3. Parasite (PR: 3)

4. The Farewell (PR: 4)

5. Pain and Glory (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bombshell (PR: 5)

7. Booksmart (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Waves (PR: 8)

9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

10. Honey Boy (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

1917

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)

3. Little Women (PR: 4)

4. The Two Popes (PR: 3)

5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker (PR: 5)

7. Just Mercy (PR: 7)

8. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)

9. Downton Abbey (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hustlers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Judy

Dark Waters

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Parasite (PR: 1)

2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)

3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)

4. Atlantics (PR: 7)

5. Beanpole (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Monos (PR: 4)

7. And Then We Danced (PR: 6)

8. A White, White Day (PR: 9)

9. Those Who Remained (PR: 8)

10. Papicha (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tel Aviv on Fire

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)

2. Frozen II (PR: 2)

3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)

4. I Lost My Body (PR: 5)

5. Weathering with You (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Abominable (PR: 8)

7. Missing Link (PR: 7)

8. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 6)

9. Klaus (PR: 9)

10. Spies in Disguise (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Funan

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. American Factory (PR: 1)

2. One Child Nation (PR: 2)

3. The Cave (PR: 5)

4. Maiden (PR: 3)

5. Apollo 11 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 6)

7. Honeyland (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Knock Down the House (PR: 7)

9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Sea of Shadows (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

For Sama

Diego Maradona

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 1)

2. The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)

4. The Lighthouse (PR: 5)

5. Joker (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)

7. A Hidden Life (PR: 4)

8. Ad Astra (PR: 8)

9. Parasite (PR: 7)

10. Marriage Story (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Portrait of a Lady on Fire 

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Downton Abbey (PR: 4)

3. Rocketman (PR: 5)

4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 2)

5. Little Women (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Irishman (PR: 7)

7. Judy (PR: 6)

8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)

9. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dumbo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cats

Aladdin

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)

4. Parasite (PR: 5)

5. Marriage Story (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities: 

6. 1917 (PR: 4)

7. Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

9. Joker (PR: 9)

10. Avengers: Endgame (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rocketman

Knives Out 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bombshell (PR: 1)

2. The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Judy (PR: 3)

4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)

5. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rocketman (PR: 6)

7. Joker (PR: 10)

8. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)

9. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Us (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cats

The Aeronauts 

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Little Women (PR: 4)

4. 1917 (PR: 5)

5. Parasite (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 3)

7. Cats (PR: 7)

8. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)

9. Joker (PR: 10)

10. The Aeronauts (PR: 8)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 1)

2. Little Women (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)

4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)

5. Joker (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)

7. A Hidden Life (PR: 6)

8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)

9. The Aeronauts (PR: 7)

10. Ad Astra (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Waves

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)

2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)

3. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 4)

4. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 3)

5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 6)

7. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “I’m Standing With You” from Breakthrough (PR: 5)

9. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

“The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4

“One Little Soldier” from Bombshell

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 2)

2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)

4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)

5. Ad Astra (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rocketman (PR: 5)

7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)

8. The Irishman (PR: 7)

9. Cats (PR: 9)

10. Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Aeronauts

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 3)

2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)

4. Rocketman (PR: 4)

5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ad Astra (PR: 9)

7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)

8. Cats (PR: 10)

9. The Irishman (PR: 7)

10. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Judy

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 2)

2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 1)

3. The Lion King (PR: 4)

4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)

5. The Aeronauts (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ad Astra (PR: 8)

7. Gemini Man (PR: 7)

8. 1917 (PR: 9)

9. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 6)

10. Dumbo (PR: 10)

And that all equates to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:

10 Nominations

The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

8 Nominations

Marriage Story

7 Nominations

1917, Little Women

6 Nominations

Parasite

4 Nominations

Bombshell, Joker, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes

3 Nominations

Avengers: Endgame, Ford v Ferrari, Rocketman

2 Nominations

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, Harriet, Jojo Rabbit, Judy, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Pain and Glory

1 Nomination

Ad Astra, The Aeronauts, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Beanpole, Cats, The Cave, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, Maiden, One Child Nation, The Report, Toy Story 4, Weathering with You

2019 Oscar Predictions: November 1st Edition

This week’s gathering of my Oscar predictions brings changes in some big categories:

  • Joker has been at the bottom of my ten Best Picture nominees since its opening, but it drops to #11 in favor of Ford v Ferrari. On the positive side for the film, Joker is back in my Adapted Screenplay estimates over A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.
  • Harriet is out this weekend and it’s coming in at the higher range of box office expectations. I’m putting Cynthia Erivo back in my top five and that leaves out Alfre Woodard’s work in Clemency.
  • Dolemite Is My Name premiered on Netflix a week ago and that’s opened up a floodgate of praise for Eddie Murphy. We shall see if the momentum continues, but I now have vaulted him into my Best Actor nominees. That drops out Robert De Niro in The Irishman. Truth be told, this particular race is absolutely packed and I believe only Adam Driver is safe right now.

Let’s get to it!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Marriage Story (PR: 3)

4. Parasite (PR: 4)

5. 1917 (PR: 6)

6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)

7. Little Women (PR: 9)

8. The Two Popes (PR: 8)

9. Bombshell (PR: 7)

10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 11)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker (PR: 10)

12. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)

13. The Farewell (PR: 12)

14. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Waves (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Richard Jewell 

BEST DIRECTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)

4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)

5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)

7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

8. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)

9. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)

10. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Jay Roach, Bombshell 

BEST ACTRESS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)

2. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 2)

3. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 3)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)

5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)

7. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 5)

8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)

9. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Isabelle Huppert, Frankie 

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)

3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)

5. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 5)

7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)

8. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)

9. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)

10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)

4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)

5. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 6)

7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 7)

8. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: Not Ranked)

9. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 8)

10. Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit 

Sterling K. Brown, Waves

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 4)

3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 2)

4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 3)

5. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 6)

7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

8. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 8)

10. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Marriage Story (PR: 2)

3. Parasite (PR: 3)

4. The Farewell (PR: 4)

5. Bombshell (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pain and Glory (PR: 6)

7. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)

8. Waves (PR: 7)

9. 1917 (PR: 8)

10. Honey Boy (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Knives Out 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)

3. The Two Popes (PR: 4)

4. Little Women (PR: 3)

5. Joker (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 5)

7. Just Mercy (PR: 7)

8. Richard Jewell (PR: 10)

9. Judy (PR: 8)

10. Dark Waters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Downton Abbey

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Predicted Nominees:

1. Parasite (PR: 1)

2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)

3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)

4. Monos (PR: 5)

5. Beanpole (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. And Then We Danced (PR: 8)

7. Atlantics (PR: 6)

8. Those Who Remained (PR: 4)

9. A White, White Day (PR: 9)

10. Tel Aviv on Fire (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Traitor 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)

2. Frozen II (PR: 2)

3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)

4. Weathering with You (PR: 4)

5. I Lost My Body (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Missing Link (PR: 6)

8. Abominable (PR: 7)

9. Klaus (PR: 10)

10. Funan (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Okko’s Inn 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. American Factory (PR: 1)

2. One Child Nation (PR: 3)

3. Maiden (PR: 5)

4. Apollo 11 (PR: 2)

5. The Cave (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 6)

7. Knock Down the House (PR: 8)

8. For Sama (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sea of Shadows (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Diego Maradona (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

The Edge of Democracy 

Western Stars

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 2)

2. The Irishman (PR: 1)

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)

4. A Hidden Life (PR: 4)

5. The Lighthouse (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)

7. Parasite (PR: 8)

8. Ad Astra (PR: 6)

9. Joker (PR: 7)

10. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: 10)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)

3. Little Women (PR: 2)

4. Downton Abbey (PR: 4)

5. Rocketman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judy (PR: 7)

7. The Irishman (PR: 6)

8. Cats (Not Ranked)

9. Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Aladdin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

1917

Joker

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 

BEST FILM EDITING 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 3)

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

4. 1917 (PR: 5)

5. Parasite (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marriage Story (PR: 4)

7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

8. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Joker (PR: 10)

10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Avengers: Endgame 

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bombshell (PR: 1)

2. The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Judy (PR: 4)

4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)

5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rocketman (PR: 6)

7. Cats (PR: 10)

8. The Aeronauts (PR: 8)

9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joker (PR: 5)

Dropped Out:

Little Women 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 1)

2. Little Women (PR: 3)

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)

4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)

5. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Hidden Life (PR: 5)

7. The Aeronauts (PR: 6)

8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

9. Waves (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joker (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Ad Astra 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)

2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)

3. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 3)

4. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 4)

5. “I’m Standing With You” from Breakthrough (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 7)

7. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)

8. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 6)

9. “The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 8)

10. “One Little Soldier” from Bombshell (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

”Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)

4. Little Women (PR: 3)

5. 1917 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parasite (PR: 6)

7. Cats (PR: 7)

8. The Aeronauts (PR: 9)

9. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)

10. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 

BEST SOUND EDITING

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)

2. 1917 (PR: 3)

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)

4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)

5. Rocketman (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 7)

7. The Irishman (PR: 6)

8. Ad Astra (PR: 5)

9. Cats (PR: 9)

10. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Us

BEST SOUND MIXING

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)

2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)

3. 1917 (PR: 3)

4. Rocketman (PR: 6)

5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)

7. The Irishman (PR: 8)

8. Judy (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ad Astra (PR: 5)

10. Cats (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Joker

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 1)

2. The Irishman (PR: 3)

3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 2)

4. The Lion King (PR: 4)

5. The Aeronauts (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 5)

7. Gemini Man (PR: 8)

8. Ad Astra (PR: 7)

9. 1917 (PR: 9)

10. Dumbo (PR: 10)

And that equates to the following number of nominations going to these pictures:

11 Nominations 

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

9 Nominations 

The Irishman 

8 Nominations 

1917

7 Nominations 

Little Women, Marriage Story 

5 Nominations 

Bombshell, Ford v Ferrari, Parasite 

4 Nominations 

Rocketman, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes 

3 Nominations 

Dolemite Is My Name, Jojo Rabbit

2 Nominations 

Avengers: Endgame, Frozen II, Harriet, Joker, Judy, The Lighthouse 

1 Nomination

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Aeronauts, A Hidden Life, American Factory, Apollo 11, Beanpole, Breakthrough, Cats, The Cave, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, The Lion King, Maiden, Monos, One Child Nation, Pain and Glory, The Report, Toy Story 4, Weathering with You 

2019 Oscar Predictions: October 25th Edition

My latest round of Oscar predictions brings the following developments:

  • Little Women has held industry screenings and greatly improved its chances at multiple nominations. It’s back in my predicted ten Best Picture contenders and that’s bad news for Ford v Ferrari.
  • Speaking of Ferrari, it was announced that Christian Bale will contend for Best Actor and not supporting, which is where I’ve had him predicted for weeks. This designation significantly decreases his shot and I have him ranked in 8th. The benefactor in Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe for The Lighthouse.
  • Back to Little Women. The standout is said to be Florence Pugh, so I now have her down for Supporting Actress, knocking out Shuzhen Zhou in The Farewell.
  • Speaking of The Farewell, my fifth spot in Actress continues to change as that picture’s Awkwafina slides to sixth with Alfre Woodard (Clemency) in.
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood nabs the #1 slot in Picture over The Irishman. It’s a razor thin margin.

Let’s get to it!

BEST PICTURE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Previous Ranking: 2)

2. The Irishman (PR: 1)

3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)

4. Parasite (PR: 3)

5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)

6. 1917 (PR: 5)

7. Bombshell (PR: 9)

8. The Two Popes (PR: 8)

9. Little Women (PR: 12)

10. Joker (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

11. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

12. The Farewell (PR: 11)

13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)

14. Waves (PR: 14)

15. Richard Jewell (PR: 15)

BEST DIRECTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)

3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 2)

4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)

5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)

8. Jay Roach, Bombshell (PR: 10)

9. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: Not Ranked)

10. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lulu Wang, The Farewell

Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory 

BEST ACTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)

3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)

5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)

7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)

8. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting)

9. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)

10. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems 

BEST ACTRESS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)

2. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 2)

3. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 3)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)

5. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 7)

8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)

9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)

10. Isabelle Huppert, Frankie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)

3. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 8)

4. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)

5. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 5)

7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 6)

9. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)

10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Meryl Streep, Little Women 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 4)

4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 3)

5. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)

7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 8)

8. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 9)

9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)

10. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (moved to lead)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)

3. Little Women (PR: 6)

4. The Two Popes (PR: 3)

5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker (PR: 5)

7. Just Mercy (PR: 7)

8. Judy (PR: 8)

9. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)

10. Richard Jewell (PR: 10)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

2. Marriage Story (PR: 1)

3. Parasite (PR: 3)

4. The Farewell (PR: 4)

5. Bombshell (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pain and Glory (PR: 8)

7. Waves (PR: 6)

8. 1917 (PR: 7)

9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)

10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Booksmart 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Predicted Nominees:

1. Parasite (PR: 1)

2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)

3. Les Miserables (PR: 4)

4. Those Who Remained (PR: 6)

5. Monos (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Atlantics (PR: 3)

7. Beanpole (PR: 7)

8. And Then We Danced (PR: 8)

9. A White, White Day (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Traitor (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Papicha

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)

2. Frozen II (PR: 2)

3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)

4. Weathering with You (PR: 5)

5. I Lost My Body (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Missing Link (PR: 4)

7. Abominable (PR: 7)

8. Funan (PR: 9)

9. Okko’s Inn (PR: 10)

10. Klaus (PR: 8)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. American Factory (PR: 2)

2. Apollo 11 (PR: 1)

3. One Child Nation (PR: 4)

4. The Cave (PR: 5)

5. Maiden (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 6)

7. Diego Maradona (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Knock Down the House (PR: 10)

9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 7)

10. Western Stars (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Aquarela

Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story By Martin Scorsese 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 2)

2. 1917 (PR: 1)

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)

4. A Hidden Life (PR: Not Ranked)

5. The Lighthouse (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ad Astra (PR: 6)

7. Joker (PR: 9)

8. Parasite (PR: 4)

9. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Marriage Story 

Jojo Rabbit 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

2. Little Women (PR: 3)

3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)

4. Downton Abbey (PR: 1)

5. Rocketman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Irishman (PR: 7)

7. Judy (PR: 6)

8. 1917 (PR: 9)

9. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Aladdin 

Jojo Rabbit 

BEST FILM EDITING 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)

4. Marriage Story (PR: 5)

5. 1917 (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parasite (PR: 6)

7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

8. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)

9. Avengers: Endgame (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joker (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Ad Astra 

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bombshell (PR: 2)

2. The Irishman (PR: 1)

3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)

4. Judy (PR: 3)

5. Joker (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rocketman (PR: 9)

7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)

8. The Aeronauts (PR: 8)

9. Little Women (PR: 5)

10. Cats (PR: 10)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 1

2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)

3. Little Women (PR: 3)

4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)

5. A Hidden Life (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Aeronauts (PR: 6)

7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)

8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

9. Joker (PR: 9)

10. Ad Astra 

Dropped Out:

Waves

BEST ORIGINAL SONG 

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)

2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)

3. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: Not Ranked)

4. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)

5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 6)

7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 5)

8. “The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 4)

9. “One Little Soldier” from Bombshell (PR: 8)

10. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

”Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. The Irishman (PR: 4)

3. Little Women (PR: 5)

4. 1917 (PR: 2)

5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parasite (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Cats (PR: 6)

8. Downton Abbey (PR: 10)

9. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Ford v Ferrari 

Aladdin 

BEST SOUND EDITING 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)

2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)

3. 1917 (PR: 1)

4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 8)

5. Ad Astra (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Irishman (PR: 7)

7. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)

8. Rocketman (PR: 4)

9. Cats (PR: 9)

10. Us (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Lion King 

BEST SOUND MIXING 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)

2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)

3. 1917 (PR: 2)

4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)

5. Ad Astra (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rocketman (PR: 4)

7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)

8. The Irishman (PR: 8)

9. Cats (PR: 7)

10. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Lion King 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)

2. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)

3. The Irishman (PR: 1)

4. The Lion King (PR: 4)

5. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Aeronauts (PR: 6)

7. Ad Astra (PR: 8)

8. Gemini Man (PR: 7)

9. 1917 (PR: 9)

10. Dumbo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Godzilla: King of the Monsters 

And that equates to the following films getting the following number of nominations:

10 Nominations

The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

8 Nominations

1917, Marriage Story 

7 Nominations

Little Women 

5 Nominations

Bombshell 

4 Nominations

Parasite, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes 

3 Nominations

Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Joker

2 Nominations

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, A Hidden Life, Judy, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Rocketman 

1 Nomination

Alita: Battle Angel, American Factory, Apollo 11, Cats, The Cave, Clemency, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, Harriet, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, Maiden, Monos, One Child Nation, Pain and Glory, The Report, Those Who Remained, Toy Story 4, Weathering with You

2019 Oscar Predictions: October 17th Edition

My weekly Oscar predictions this Thursday brings a whole lot of changes in that I’m  including every category covering feature films! Additionally, there’s now only 15 listed possibilities in Best Picture and ten in all other races.

For this format, my projections show The Irishman garnering the most nominations with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917, and Marriage Story not far behind. Besides the cosmetic changes, here’s what else has transpired in the past seven days:

  • Bombshell, the true life of Fox News and the downfall of Roger Ailes, had its first industry screenings. The film immediately vaulted itself into contention in Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay (as well as Makeup & Hairstyling).
  • My inclusion of Bombshell in Best Picture means The Farewell has been taken out with The Two Popes and Joker as other on the bubble entries.
  • Not only does Charlize Theron’s work in Bombshell enter my Best Actress projections, but she comes in at #2. That drops Cynthia Erivo in Harriet out of the top five for the first time.
  • Margot Robbie’s performance in the picture puts her in and she bumps… Margot Robbie in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. 
  • In non Bombshell news, South Korean import Parasite had the best per screen average of 2019 in limited release. It’s the best reviewed movie of the year and its numbers game improves in Picture and Director this week.

BEST PICTURE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. Parasite (PR: 6)

4. Marriage Story (PR: 3)

5. 1917 (PR: 4)

6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)

7. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

8. The Two Popes (PR: 9)

9. Bombshell (PR: 18)

10. Joker (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Farewell (PR: 8)

12. Little Women (PR: 12)

13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)

14. Waves (PR: 13)

15. Richard Jewell (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Pain and Glory 

Judy

Just Mercy 

A Hidden Life 

Rocketman 

The Report 

Booksmart 

The Good Liar 

Dark Waters 

Ad Astra 

BEST DIRECTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 4)

3. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 3)

5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)

7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)

8. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: 7)

9. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 13)

10. Jay Roach, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes 

Greta Gerwig, Little Women 

Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 

Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life

Todd Phillips, Joker

Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell

BEST ACTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)

3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)

4. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 5)

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)

7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 8)

8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 7)

9. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: 9)

10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 11)

Dropped Out:

Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy 

Ian McKellen, The Good Liar 

Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters 

Brad Pitt, Ad Astra 

Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse 

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)

2. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 7)

3. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)

5. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 6)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 3)

8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)

9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)

10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: 11)

Dropped Out:

Isabelle Huppert, Frankie

Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart 

Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts 

Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell

Julianne Moore, Gloria Bell

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)

4. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)

5. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 6)

7. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)

8. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 9)

9. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 13)

10. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Sterling K. Brown, Waves

Alan Alda, Marriage Story 

Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy 

Sam Rockwell, Jojo Rabbit 

Zack Gottsagen, The Peanut Butter Falcon 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)

3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 12)

4. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 3)

5. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 6)

7. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)

8. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 9)

9. Meryl Streep, Little Women (PR: 8)

10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit 

Jennifer Hudson, Cats

Nicole Kidman, Bombshell 

Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory 

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dolemite Is My Name 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)

3. The Two Popes (PR: 3)

4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)

5. Joker (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Little Women (PR: 6)

7. Just Mercy (PR: 8)

8. Judy (PR: 7)

9. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)

10. Richard Jewell (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Good Liar 

Dark Waters 

Hustlers

Toy Story 4

Luce 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. Parasite (PR: 3)

4. The Farewell (PR: 4)

5. Bombshell (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

6. Waves (PR: 6)

7. 1917 (PR: 8)

8. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)

9. Booksmart (PR: 9)

10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

The Report

Honey Boy 

Dolemite Is My Name 

Knives Out 

Rocketman

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Predicted Nominees:

1. Parasite 

2. Pain and Glory 

3. Atlantics 

4. Les Miserables 

5. Monos

Other Possibilities:

6. Those Who Remained 

7. Beanpole

8. And Then We Danced 

9. Papicha

10. The Traitor 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Toy Story 4

2. Frozen II

3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 

4. Missing Link

5. Weathering with You

Other Possibilities:

6. I Lost My Body

7. Abominable 

8. Klaus

9. Funan 

10. Okko’s Inn 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Apollo 11

2. American Factory 

3. Maiden

4. One Child Nation

5. The Cave

Other Possibilities:

6. The Biggest Little Farm

7. The Edge of Democracy 

8. Aquarela

9. Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story By Martin Scorsese 

10. Knock Down the House 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917

2. The Irishman 

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

4. Parasite 

5. The Lighthouse 

Other Possibilities:

6. Ad Astra

7. Ford v Ferrari

8. Marriage Story 

9. Joker

10. Jojo Rabbit 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Downton Abbey 

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

3. Little Women

4. Dolemite Is My Name 

5. Rocketman 

Other Possibilities:

6. Judy

7. The Irishman 

8. Aladdin 

9. 1917

10. Jojo Rabbit 

BEST EDITING

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

3. 1917

4. Ford v Ferrari

5. Marriage Story 

Other Possibilities:

6. Parasite 

7. Jojo Rabbit 

8. Joker

9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 

10. Ad Astra 

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman 

2. Bombshell

3. Judy

4. Dolemite Is My Name 

5. Little Women 

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker

7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

8. The Aeronauts 

9. Rocketman 

10. Cats

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917

2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 

3. Little Women 

4. Marriage Story 

5. Jojo Rabbit 

Other Possibilities:

6. The Aeronauts 

7. Ford v Ferrari 

8. A Hidden Life 

9. Joker

10. Waves 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II

2. “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” from Rocketman 

3. “Stand Up” from Harriet 

4. “The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4

5. “Speechless” from Aladdin 

Other Possibilities:

6. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4

7. “Spirit” from The Lion King 

8. “One Little Soldier” from Bombshell 

9. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn 

10. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

2. 1917

3. Jojo Rabbit 

4. The Irishman 

5. Little Women

Other Possibilities:

6. Cats

7. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 

8. Ford v Ferrari

9. Aladdin

10. Downton Abbey 

BEST SOUND EDITING 

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917

2. Ford v Ferrari

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 

4. Rocketman

5. Avengers: Endgame 

Other Possibilities:

6. Ad Astra

7. The Irishman 

8. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

9. Cats

10. The Lion King 

BEST SOUND MIXING 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ford v Ferrari

2. 1917

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 

4. Rocketman 

5. Ad Astra 

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Endgame 

7. Cats

8. The Irishman 

9. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

10. The Lion King 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman 

2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 

3. Avengers: Endgame 

4. The Lion King 

5. Alita: Battle Angel 

Other Possibilities:

6. The Aeronauts 

7. Gemini Man 

8. Ad Astra 

9. 1917

10. Godzilla: King of the Monsters 

So here’s I have the nominations playing out as far as numbers with each film:

10 Nominations 

The Irishman 

9 Nominations 

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

8 Nominations 

1917, Marriage Story 

5 Nominations 

Bombshell, Ford v Ferrari, Little Women, Parasite

4 Nominations 

Jojo Rabbit, Rocketman, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes 

3 Nominations 

The Farewell, Joker

2 Nominations 

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, Judy, Toy Story 4

1 Nomination

Ad Astra, Aladdin, Alita: Battle Angel, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, The Cave, Downton Abbey, Harriet, Hustlers, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Les Miserables, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Maiden, Missing Link, Monos, One Child Nation, Pain and Glory, The Report, Weathering with You

2019 Oscar Predictions: October 10th Edition

The Joker went wild at the box office over the weekend, easily setting the all-time October opening record. Let’s see how the rest of awards season plays out, but the film has now entered back into my predictions for Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay. In the big race, that knocks out A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, which made its inaugural appearance in the top ten last Thursday. In other developments:

  • In Actress, the five spot continues to change back and forth. For this week, Awkwafina is in with Alfre Woodard just outside.
  • In Supporting Actress, Laura Dern goes back to the #1 slot over Jennifer Lopez.

The other races remain the same with some positions jockeying around. So here’s the big announcement…

Next Thursday, I will be including all categories covering feature length films for the first time. The list of Picture possibilities will dwindle from 25 to 15 with all other races going down to ten. Stay tuned!!

BEST PICTURE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. Marriage Story (PR: 3)

4. 1917 (PR: 7)

5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 4)

6. Parasite (PR: 5

7. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)

8. The Farewell (PR: 9)

9. The Two Popes (PR: 8)

10. Joker (PR: 11)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 10)

12. Little Women (PR: 12)

13. Waves (PR: 13)

14. Pain and Glory (PR: 15)

15. Richard Jewell (PR: 19)

16. Judy (PR: 17)

17. Just Mercy (PR: 14)

18. Bombshell (PR: 20)

19. A Hidden Life (PR: 16)

20. Rocketman (PR: 24)

21. The Report (PR: 21)

22. Booksmart (PR: 18)

23. The Good Liar (PR: Not Ranked)

24. Dark Waters (PR: 22)

25. Ad Astra (PR: 25)

Dropped Out:

Downton Abbey 

BEST DIRECTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 5)

4. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 4)

5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)

7. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: 12)

8. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

9. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 10)

10. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 8)

11. Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)

12. Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life (PR: 11)

13. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 9)

14. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Trey Edward Shults, Waves

BEST ACTRESS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)

2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 3)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)

5. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 5)

7. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 7)

8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)

9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)

10. Isabelle Huppert, Frankie (PR: 11)

11. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: 10)

12. Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts (PR: 14)

14. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 12)

15. Julianne Moore, Gloria Bell (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Kristin Stewart, Seberg 

BEST ACTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)

3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 4)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)

5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)

7. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 7)

8. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 8)

9. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: 10)

10. Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy (PR: 11)

11. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 12)

12. Ian McKellen, The Good Liar (PR: 13)

13. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters (PR: 14)

14. Brad Pitt, Ad Astra (PR: 9)

15. Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Matt Damon, Ford v Ferrari

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 2)

2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 1)

3. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 3)

4. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)

5. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 8)

7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)

8. Meryl Streep, Little Women (PR: 7)

9. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 9)

10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 11)

11. Jennifer Hudson, Cats (PR: 12)

12. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 13)

13. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 10)

14. Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory (PR: 14)

15. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 3)

3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 4)

4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 2)

5. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 8)

7. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 6)

8. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)

9. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 7)

10. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: 10)

11. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (PR: 11)

12. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 13)

13. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 12)

14. Sam Rockwell, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 14)

15. Zack Gottsagen, The Peanut Butter Falcon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sam Rockwell, Richard Jewell

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. Parasite (PR: 3)

4. The Farewell (PR: 5)

5. Pain and Glory (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Waves (PR: 6)

7. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

8. 1917 (PR: 11)

9. Booksmart (PR: 8)

10. Bombshell (PR: 9)

11. The Report (PR: 10)

12. Honey Boy (PR: 12)

13. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 14)

14. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ad Astra 

The Lighthouse 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)

3. The Two Popes (PR: 3)

4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)

5. Joker (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Little Women (PR: 5)

7. Judy (PR: 9)

8. Just Mercy (PR: 8)

9. Downton Abbey (PR: 7)

10. Richard Jewell (PR: 10)

11. The Good Liar (PR: 12)

12. Dark Waters (PR: 11)

13. Hustlers (PR: 14)

14. Toy Story 4 (PR: 15)

15. Luce (PR: 13)

2019 Oscar Predictions: October 3rd Edition

Going into this week’s predictions, there was no question that Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman would be the headline. The gangster epic premiered last Friday at the New York Film Festival to overwhelmingly glowing reviews. That reaction has propelled it to the #1 spot in Picture, Director, and kept it there in Adapted Screenplay.

Additionally, the festival greatly increased the chances for Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, and Joe Pesci to land nominations. De Niro makes an appearance in lead for the first time, pushing out Antonio Banderas. Pacino enters Supporting Actor, displacing Willem Dafoe. And Pesci rises to the #6 slot in that category.

Yet the movement this Thursday extends beyond Irishman. Renee Zellweger’s title performance in Judy is now #1 in Actress. In Supporting Actress, Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers vaults to first position.

In Picture, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood makes its inaugural showing in my top ten projections. That pushes out Little Women, as we await reaction for it.

Finally, it was revealed (fairly unsurprisingly) that Clint Eastwood’s Richard Jewell will be released in December for awards consideration. I have the film, Clint, Paul Walter Hauser, Kathy Bates, and its Adapted Screenplay mentioned as possibilities.

WINNER OF THE WEEK: The Irishman 

LOSER OF THE WEEK: The Lighthouse 

Let’s get to it!

BEST PICTURE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 3)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. Marriage Story (PR: 1)

4. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)

5. Parasite (PR: 6)

6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)

7. 1917 (PR: 7)

8. The Two Popes (PR: 8)

9. The Farewell (PR: 10)

10. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker (PR: 12)

12. Little Women (PR: 9)

13. Waves (PR: 13)

14. Just Mercy (PR: 18)

15. Pain and Glory (PR: 14)

16. A Hidden Life (PR: 15)

17. Judy (PR: 23)

18. Booksmart (PR: 21)

19. Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)

20. Bombshell (PR: 16)

21. The Report (PR: 20)

22. Dark Waters (PR: 22)

23. Downton Abbey (PR: Not Ranked)

24. Rocketman (PR: 25)

25. Ad Astra (PR: 17)

Dropped Out:

The Lighthouse 

Knives Out 

BEST DIRECTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 2)

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

3. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 4)

4. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)

5. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)

7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

8. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 8)

9. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 10)

10. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 9)

11. Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life (PR: 11)

12. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: 12)

13. Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 14)

14. Trey Edward Shults, Waves (PR: 13)

15. Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Todd Phillips, Joker 

BEST ACTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)

4. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)

5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 4)

7. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)

8. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)

9. Brad Pitt, Ad Astra (PR: 9)

10. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy (PR: 11)

12. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)

13. Ian McKellen, The Good Liar (PR: 13)

14. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters (PR: 12)

15. Matt Damon, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse 

Daniel Kaluuya, Queen and Slim

BEST ACTRESS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 2)

2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 3)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)

5. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)

7. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 8)

8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)

9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)

10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: 10)

11. Isabelle Huppert, Frankie (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 13)

13. Julianne Moore, Gloria Bell (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts (PR: 12)

15. Kristen Stewart, Seberg (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Lesley Manville, Ordinary Love 

Jessie Buckley, Wild Rose 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 3)

2. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

3. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 2)

4. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)

5. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)

7. Meryl Streep, Little Women (PR: 7)

8. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 11)

9. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 8)

10. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 12)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Jennifer Hudson, Cats (PR: 9)

13. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 13)

14. Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Meryl Streep, The Laundromat 

Anna Paquin, The Irishman 

Octavia Spencer, Luce 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 2)

3. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 6)

4. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)

5. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 10)

7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 7)

8. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 4)

9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)

10. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: 8)

11. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (PR: 11)

12. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 12)

13. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 14)

14. Sam Rockwell, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Sam Rockwell, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tracy Letts, Ford v Ferrari 

Chris Evans, Knives Out 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. Parasite (PR: 3)

4. The Farewell (PR: 4)

5. Pain and Glory (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Waves (PR: 5)

7. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

8. Booksmart (PR: 9)

9. Bombshell (PR: 10)

10. The Report (PR: 8)

11. 1917 (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Honey Boy (PR: 15)

13. Ad Astra (PR: 13)

14. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Lighthouse (PR: 11)

Dropped Out:

Knives Out

Uncut Gems 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)

3. The Two Popes (PR: 3)

4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 5)

5. Little Women (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker (PR: 6)

7. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)

8. Just Mercy (PR: 7)

9. Judy (PR: 8)

10. Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Dark Waters (PR: 10)

12. The Good Liar (PR: 11)

13. Luce (PR: 12)

14. Hustlers (PR: 13)

15. Toy Story 4 (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

The Laundromat 

2019 Oscar Predictions: September 27th Edition

When it comes to Oscar prognosticating, it’s been a fairly quiet weekend without any festivals or particularly high profile screenings. Yet that’s bound to change tomorrow because The Irishman cometh.

Two months ahead of its Netflix debut, Martin Scorsese’s epic gangster drama with Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, and Joe Pesci will open the New York Film Festival. There are a few notable Academy hopefuls that haven’t screened like 1917, Bombshell, Little Women, and Dark Waters. Mr. Scorsese’s latest is the most eagerly awaited and we will know its potential Oscar viability in just a few hours (expect my individual post for it no later than Saturday).

So as we await that verdict, there were some developments in the past week:

  • I have moved Christian Bale from lead actor to supporting and that means he’s in for the first time, replacing Jamie Foxx.
  • Awkwafina gets the Best Actress #5 spot over Alfre Woodard.
  • The Two Popes has shifted to Adapted Screenplay and that takes Joker out.
  • The misfortune for Joker continues as I’ve moved it out of my top ten Picture projections in favor of The Farewell. 
  • With Popes removed from Original Screenplay, Waves takes its slot.

WINNER OF THE WEEK: The Farewell 

LOSER OF THE WEEK: Joker 

Let’s get to it!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Marriage Story (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. The Irishman (PR: 3)

4. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)

5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

6. Parasite (PR: 5)

7. 1917 (PR: 6)

8. The Two Popes (PR: 8)

9. Little Women (PR: 10)

10. The Farewell (PR: 13)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)

12. Joker (PR: 9)

13. Waves (PR: 12)

14. Pain and Glory (PR: 18)

15. A Hidden Life (PR: 15)

16. Bombshell (PR: 16)

17. Ad Astra (PR: 23)

18. Just Mercy (PR: 14)

19. The Lighthouse (PR: 17)

20. The Report (PR: 21)

21. Booksmart (PR: 19)

22. Dark Waters (PR: 20)

23. Judy (Not Ranked)

24. Rocketman (PR: 24)

25. Knives Out (PR: 22)

Dropped Out:

The Good Liar 

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 3)

3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 4)

4. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 2)

5. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)

8. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 8)

9. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 9)

10. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 10)

11. Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life (PR: 12)

12. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: 14)

13. Trey Edward Shults, Waves (PR: 15)

14. Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)

15. James Gray, Ad Astra (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Todd Phillips, Joker 

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 2)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 4)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 3)

5. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 6)

7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)

8. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 7)

9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 10)

10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: 11)

11. Lesley Manville, Ordinary Love (PR: 9)

12. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts (PR: 12)

13. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 13)

14. Kristen Stewart, Seberg (PR: 14)

15. Jessie Buckley, Wild Rose (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Elle Fanning, Teen Spirit 

BEST ACTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)

3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)

4. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 5)

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 6)

7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 9)

8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)

9. Brad Pitt, Ad Astra (PR: 13)

10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)

11. Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy (PR: 12)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters (PR: 14)

13. Ian McKellen, The Good Liar (PR: 11)

14. Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse (PR: 15)

15. Daniel Kaluuya, Queen and Slim (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (moved to Supporting)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 2)

3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)

4. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 4)

5. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)

Other Possibilities:

6. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 6)

7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 5)

8. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: 7)

9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)

10. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 9)

11. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (PR: 10)

12. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 11)

13. Tracy Letts, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 13)

14. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 12)

15. Chris Evans, Knives Out (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Jamie Bell, Rocketman 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 2)

3. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 3)

4. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 4)

5. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

7. Meryl Streep, Little Women (PR: 6)

8. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 8)

9. Jennifer Hudson, Cats (PR: 12)

10. Meryl Streep, The Laundromat (PR: 11)

11. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 9)

13. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Anna Paquin, The Irishman (PR: 13)

15. Octavia Spencer, Luce (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory 

Anne Hathaway, Dark Waters 

Ana de Armas, Knives Out 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)

3. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original)

4. Little Women (PR: 3)

5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker (PR: 5)

7. Just Mercy (PR: 6)

8. Judy (PR: 10)

9. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)

10. Dark Waters (PR: 7)

11. The Good Liar (PR: 11)

12. Luce (PR: 12)

13. Hustlers (PR: 13)

14. The Laundromat (PR: 9)

15. Toy Story 4 (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Motherless Brooklyn 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. Parasite (PR: 3)

4. The Farewell (PR: 5)

5. Waves (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pain and Glory (PR: 8)

7. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)

8. The Report (PR: 10)

9. Booksmart (PR: 7)

10. Bombshell (PR: 12)

11. The Lighthouse (PR: 13)

12. Knives Out (PR: 11)

13. Ad Astra (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Honey Boy (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

The Two Popes (moved to Adapted)

1917

2019 Oscar Predictions: September 19th Edition

It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are updated! Some events from over the last week:

  • By Friday next week, The Irishman will have screened and we will know how much of a contender it truly is. I’ve held it as a placeholder in first since I started my projections a month ago. I’m shaking it up a bit and sliding the picture and Martin Scorsese to third. That means Marriage Story takes over in slot one for Pic and Quentin Tarantino is first for direction.
  • Winning the Audience Award at the Toronto Film Festival, Jojo Rabbit got just the shot in the arm it needed after mixed reviews. 10 of the past 11 Toronto recipients have nabbed a Best Picture nod. So it’s back in my mix. It replaces Waves.
  • In Director, Sam Mendes is back in with James Mangold out.
  • No changes to the top five in Best Actor. . In Actress and Supporting Actress – same story as even 1-5 rankings remain consistent.
  • In Supporting Actor, it’s Willem Dafoe returning to the predictions over Sterling K. Brown.
  • The five Adapted Screenplays haven’t changed while in Original, it’s The Farewell over Waves. 

WINNER OF THE WEEK: Jojo Rabbit 

LOSER OF THE WEEK: Waves 

Let’s get to it!

BEST PICTURE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Marriage Story (Previous Ranking: 2)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)

3. The Irishman (PR: 1)

4. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)

5. Parasite (PR: 6)

6. 1917 (PR: 10)

7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 14)

8. The Two Popes (PR: 4)

9. Joker (PR: 8)

10. Little Women (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)

12. Waves (PR: 9)

13. The Farewell (PR:12)

14. Just Mercy (PR: 13)

15. A Hidden Life (PR: 19)

16. Bombshell (PR: 18)

17. The Lighthouse (PR: 20)

18. Pain and Glory (PR: 16)

19. Booksmart (PR: 22)

20. Dark Waters (PR: 17)

21. The Report (PR: 15)

22. Knives Out (PR: 21)

23. Ad Astra (PR: 25)

24. Rocketman (PR: 24)

25. The Good Liar (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Queen and Slim 

BEST DIRECTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

2. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 3)

3. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)

4. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 4)

5. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)

7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 13)

8. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 7)

9. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 9)

10. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 8)

11. Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)

12. Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life (PR: 12)

13. Todd Phillips, Joker (Not Ranked)

14. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: 15)

15. Trey Edward Shults, Waves (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Todd Haynes, Dark Waters 

BEST ACTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 3)

3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 2)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)

5. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 6)

7. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)

9. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 9)

10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 13)

11. Ian McKellen, The Good Liar (PR: 11)

12. Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy (PR: 10)

13. Brad Pitt, Ad Astra (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters (PR: 12)

15. Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Kaluuya, Queen and Slim 

BEST ACTRESS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 2)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 3)

4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 4)

5. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)

7. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 7)

8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)

9. Lesley Manville, Ordinary Love (PR: 10)

10. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)

11. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: 11)

12. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts (PR: 14)

13. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 12)

14. Kristen Stewart, Seberg (PR: 13)

15. Elle Fanning, Teen Spirit (PR: 15)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 2)

3. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 3)

4. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 4)

5. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Meryl Streep, Little Women (PR: 8)

7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 6)

9. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 9)

10. Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory (PR: 10)

11. Meryl Streep, The Laundromat (PR: 7)

12. Jennifer Hudson, Cats (PR: 11)

13. Anna Paquin, The Irishman (PR: 13)

14. Anne Hathaway, Dark Waters (PR: 12)

15. Ana de Armas, Knives Out (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Renee Elise Goldsberry, Waves 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 2)

3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 4)

4. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 6)

5. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 7)

7. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: 5)

8. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 11)

9. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 10)

10. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (PR: 8)

11. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 9)

12. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Tracy Letts, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 12)

14. Chris Evans, Knives Out (PR: 14)

15. Jamie Bell, Rocketman (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Aldis Hodge, Clemency 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. Parasite (PR: 4)

4. The Two Popes (PR: 3)

5. The Farewell (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Waves (PR: 5)

7. Booksmart (PR: 10)

8. Pain and Glory (PR: 8)

9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)

10. The Report (PR: 7)

11. Knives Out (PR: 11)

12. Bombshell (PR: 12)

13. The Lighthouse (PR: 13)

14. 1917 (PR: 14)

15. Honey Boy (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Queen and Slim 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)

3. Little Women (PR: 2)

4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 3)

5. Joker (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Just Mercy (PR: 6)

7. Dark Waters (PR: 7)

8. Downton Abbey (PR: 13)

9. The Laundromat (PR: 8)

10. Judy (PR: 11)

11. The Good Liar (PR: 15)

12. Luce (PR: 10)

13. Hustlers (PR: 9)

14. Toy Story 4 (PR: 12)

15. Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 14)

Back at it next week!!