Oscars 2019: The Case of Marriage Story

My Case of posts for the nine 2019 Best Picture nominees arrives at Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story. If you missed my first five entries, you can look them over at these links:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/14/oscars-2019-the-case-of-ford-v-ferrari/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/15/oscars-2019-the-case-of-the-irishman/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/17/oscars-2019-the-case-of-jojo-rabbit/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/18/oscars-2019-the-case-of-joker/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/18/oscars-2019-the-case-of-little-women/

Let’s look at the pros and cons for this particular story:

The Case for Marriage Story

This would be the acting showcase nominee. With three nods for Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, and Laura Dern, it has more performance nominations than anything else and Dern is seen as the front runner in Supporting Actress. The pic’s 95% Rotten Tomatoes score is certainly on the high end for the nine pictures recognized. Baumbach’s Oscar exposure previously consisted of a sole Original Screenplay nod for 2005’s The Squid and the Whale and this is his awards breakout.

The Case Against Marriage Story

The Netflix venture has yet to produce a signature victory at any of the major precursors. Baumbach was left out of the final five in Best Director and that’s almost always a troubling sign for a Best Picture victory. And there’s still the matter of potential Netflix bias from voters. Even if the streaming service doesn’t face opposition, Academy members will probably look at Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman instead.

The Verdict

Laura Dern could represent the film’s sole win on Oscar night. Baumbach could make a run at Original Screenplay with serious competition from Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Parasite. A Best Picture win doesn’t appear to be in the cards.

Up next in my Case of posts… 1917!

Oscar Watch: Marriage Story

One of the most eagerly awaited Oscar contenders premiered today at the Venice Film Festival and it seems to have only elevated its status. Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story is receiving rave reviews as it explores the dissolution of the union between Scarlett Johansson and Adam Driver’s characters. It currently stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Baumbach’s sole Academy nod came for his Original Screenplay for The Squid and the Whale in 2005. A second recognition in that race seems assured. The auteur, who based the script on his own divorce from actress Jennifer Jason Leigh, also stands an excellent shot at his first directing nomination and the picture itself is likely to make the cut among the 5-10 nominees in the biggest race of all.

As for the performers, Marriage is the rare film that could see nods in all four acting categories. Johansson has remarkably never the beneficiary of an Academy nomination, despite four Golden Globe calls for her work. Expect that to change in what’s being called a career best. Driver appears in line for his second Oscar nod in a row after last year’s supporting turn in BlacKkKlansman. In the supporting races, look for Laura Dern in Supporting Actress. As for Supporting Actor, both Ray Liotta and Alan Alda are possibilities and it will be interesting to see which one of them grabs momentum.

Bottom line: look for this Marriage to be a storyline throughout awards season. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)

Another Cannes Film Festival screening has put two items in the same sentence that don’t really belong together: Oscar buzz and Adam Sandler. Yes, it’s true. When we think of Sandler pics premiering on Netflix over the last couple of years, quality doesn’t immediately spring to mind.

However, The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) isn’t your typical Sandler fare. The comedic drama (or dramatic comedy if you will) is from acclaimed indie director Noah Baumbach, maker of The Squid and the Whale and Frances Ha. Instead of David Spade and Rob Schneider, the costars here include Dustin Hoffman, Ben Stiller, and Emma Thompson.

Early reviews from France suggest this is Mr. Sandler’ finest performance since at least PunchDrunk Love 15 years ago. And that has some folks whispering Oscar nomination. In all likelihood, even with strong notices and a current 90% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, the star of Meyerowitz is probably a bit of a long shot. Yet a weak Best Actor race could change that dynamic come autumn.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…